Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - It's the end of the world as we know it

[Raoul Duke III]

I thought you were just big boned?

I'm not against hearty portions and I'm certainly no slim Jim. But on this occasion, there was too much food. Normally, I never let food win, but it was all very rich when combined with large portions makes you waddle out the door and feel very uncomfortable

Yeah, we couldn't finish our mains either. Solution - do not order the focaccia bite\pre-starter. That was my first mistake.

Mrs D3 made the same comment about over-saltiness as Mrs Lao btw.

[Raoul Duke III]

There once was a gourmand called Lao
Who boasted he could scoff a full cow
But after a platter of meat
He had to admit defeat
His belly would only say 'Ow'

[Lao Lao]

Yeah, we couldn't finish our mains either. Solution - do not order the focaccia bite\pre-starter. That was my first mistake.

Mrs D3 made the same comment about over-saltiness as Mrs Lao btw.

Our focaccia portion was big enough for four people and Mrs Lao Lao only ate a one person portion so I polished off the other three quarters, that was the initial mistake alright.

[Raoul Duke III]

There was a big fella called Dice
Who just couldn't handle his spice
With a great deal of worry
He ordered a mild curry
And for his arse, a big bag of ice

[MysteryGuest]

This is software. At the moment we have a couple of key players who are ahead of the pack because of the computing power required to train these things. They currently act as some kind of gate keepers but open source will not be far behind.

At the Speed of Light: Unveiling the Chip That’s Reimagining AI Processing

What do you want to happen? Do you want to ban computers? Maybe we should shut off the electricity grid?

Just providing a counter view to the breathless regurgitation of Twitter hype going on here.

this is clearly going to be bad in far more ways then its going to be good for the vast majority, that’s an absolute lock.

solar flare knocking out the grid/satellites etc would be one of the more hilarious ways humanity goes out

[Opr]

It is crazy surely for the Telegraph to be releasing these kinds of videos? They are adding huge fuel to the fire. The whole thing is a completely one side hit piece with a clear agenda.

[Raoul Duke III]

Going to have to award myself the Golden Ticket if I don't start seeing some quality limericks in here...

[DeadParrot]

Challenge accepted...

AI seems the new standard of gold
Laz,Dom, Solks & more thought it quite bold.
Now friends, would it not be a lark
if I could build up in march
A model that'd serve Dice a dish that is best served quite cold?

[zuutroy]

Yea I was in a similar boat there and he kept on offering us more stuff to try...this was lunch time...Im used to a sandwich and not much more at lunch time!

[DeadParrot]

There once was a foal born quite grand
but hated everything and everyone in the land
both the dame and sire neighed
"we should be castrated & spayed!!"
For this guest was a mystery, unplanned.

[Opr]

Just providing a counter view to the breathless regurgitation of Twitter hype going on here.

this is clearly going to be bad in far more ways then its going to be good for the vast majority, that’s an absolute lock.

solar flare knocking out the grid/satellites etc would be one of the more hilarious ways humanity goes out

I can talk to a machine and have full blown conversations with it. We are so quick to shout what have you done for me lately but that is mind blowing. The technology is amazing and that is where the wonder and awe comes from, not that it is going to save all of humanity and create a utopia. I can appreciate one thing while recognising the inherent dangers that it poses as things move forward.

The idea though that we should lock it up, regulate it heavily and give the power to the current gatekeepers seems a sure fire way to make sure it has a bad outcome for the majority.

[Solksjaer!]

Going to have to award myself the Golden Ticket if I don't start seeing some quality limericks in here...

Limerick, Limerick, Limerick Limerick
Limerick, Limerick, Limerick Limerick
Limerick, Limerick, Limerick Limerick
Lol lol lol
It' a kip.

[dinekes]

Going to have to award myself the Golden Ticket if I don't start seeing some quality limericks in here...

It's a farce RD kept the golden ticket
A larceny, more bent than Lester picket
We suggest that he brace
Before the first race
Up his arse hes beholden to stick it!

[Raoul Duke III]

There was an auld pervert called Strewel
Who was exceedingly proud of his tool
One day at the races
He undid his braces
And exposed himself with a drool

[Murdrum]

The idea though that we should lock it up, regulate it heavily and give the power to the current gatekeepers seems a sure fire way to make sure it has a bad outcome for the majority.

I’m currently doing an MSc in AI but more related to the regulatory aspects.
Some of the lecturers are ex industry like Shannon Vallor I shared the other day and they’re pretty critical of big-tech.

I’m yet to come across an argument for little to no regulation, everyone seems to believe significant regulation is required.
Obviously, the current big players have shifted more and more to keeping their tech proprietary but to me that requires regulation to force transparency rather than allow free rein in the hope that an entirely free market leads to some utopia.

[dinekes]

A stud there was called Dinekes
Hadn't a ride in nearly 4 weeks
He barebacked a mare
With a lack of due care
So sired Dinekes 2, his heir!

[Degag]

There once was an auld lad called Duke
Who's win was purely a fluke
But this is Degag's year
To win loads for beer
And make the champion puke

[Solksjaer!]

There was a young racehorse called IRA
Who was ready to run on Good Friday,
But upon his arriving, he got an Easter Rising ,
and fckd SPs horses all day

[dinekes]

Bed, mattress, side table arriving tomorrow.

Between 1 and 4

They have themselves a fair window for delivery

Taking away old bed/mattress.
Must check for pee stains and proudly point them out "New years eve 2019, 12 pints"

"Is that a chocolate stain sir"
"Yeeeeeeeesss.... chocolate...that's it"

[Opr]

I’m currently doing an MSc in AI but more related to the regulatory aspects.
Some of the lecturers are ex industry like Shannon Vallor I shared the other day and they’re pretty critical of big-tech.

I’m yet to come across an argument for little to no regulation, everyone seems to believe significant regulation is required.
Obviously, the current big players have shifted more and more to keeping their tech proprietary but to me that requires regulation to force transparency rather than allow free rein in the hope that an entirely free market leads to some utopia.

I was speaking purely towards avoiding regulatory capture. Sam hasn't in most people eyes been lobbying with safety in mind but more towards creating a closed ecosystem with many barriers to entry. So significant regulation is probably required but in well thought out ways and given how money and power usually corrupts that I'd be extremely wary of what will happen.

When you have one of the judges saying this as Sam is sat in front of him its a little eye raising

“I can’t recall when we’ve had people representing large corporations or private sector entities come before us and plead with us to regulate them.”

I'd now usually go off into a rant where we currently have a system in capitalism which has encouraged unfettered technological advancement and been great to drive us forward but its now increasingly not fit for purpose. The type of information sharing and transparency you want through regulation I think proves that exact point.

I worry that Sam has some kind of messiah complex, as when I listen to him I often think its sounds like he believe that we just need to suffer through all that will happen around the advancement of AI, like jobs displacement, economic turmoil, civil unrest, etc because his AGI god will solve everything and on the other side of this is Utopia for all. That is kinda scary

Guardian - OpenAI boss Sam Altman wants $7tn. For all our sakes, pray he doesn’t get it

[BennyHiFi]

... jobs displacement, economic turmoil, civil unrest, etc

This is the bit I find interesting...have there been any studies yet I wonder on what happens if, for example, 20/30/40/50% of mid-high paying jobs are AI-d out of existence in the next 5-10 year. What are the implications for tax raising potential, social services, infrastructural projects and, importantly, security.

If all the jobs go, and no one has any money... what does that REALLY look like?

Does it happen so fast we can't stop it?

Can we stop it but are paralysed by indecision?

Who will consume AI products and services if no one has any money cos there are no jobs left?

Could this be a catalyst for an economic revolutions as big, if not bigger that, the invention of money? The industrial revolution?

Is it the end of capitalism and we need a new system to support human life on earth? How long would that revolution take and what would it look like?

Etc...

[MysteryGuest]

first they came for the stock videographers and i did not speak out as i was not a stock videographer ….

[Solksjaer!]

This is the bit I find interesting...have there been any studies yet I wonder on what happens if, for example, 20/30/40/50% of mid-high paying jobs are AI-d out of existence in the next 5-10 year. What are the implications for tax raising potential, social services, infrastructural projects and, importantly, security.

If all the jobs go, and no one has any money... what does that REALLY look like?

Does it happen so fast we can't stop it?

Can we stop it but are paralysed by indecision?

Who will consume AI products and services if no one has any money cos there are no jobs left?

Could this be a catalyst for an economic revolutions as big, if not bigger that, the invention of money? The industrial revolution?

Is it the end of capitalism and we need a new system to support human life on earth? How long would that revolution take and what would it look like?

Etc...

There are no limits to the bad and the good possible .
so no difference there. I doubt the folk in Palestine are concerned. Interesting times but then again some of us remember the pencil and the cassette tape.

[Mellor]

Leading contenders so far:

None of them are great TBF so get your entries in and show us how it should be done.

I’m shocked that the Duke doing the pension at Cheltenham is not running away with it

[Mellor]

I think there is a 3rd set of people who do understand it or at least the scope of it reasonably well but aren’t blown away by the speed or output thus far.

I’m not sure. Maybe within the field, expected it to be even better by now. But among the public I’d be surprised if anyone understood it on a fundamental level and wasn’t impressed.
As an example, when the static AI images came out, and it came up in work somebody commented that he didn’t see the fuss - “Google search throws up better images”. Couldn’t grasp the the difference between the two - presumably because the initial images were a little flakey.

[Denny Crane]

I think tech moves very slowly through most big corporations. On the surface they may integrate AI but not to a high level.

I can't remember where I read it, but the stats on tech integration are not what you would think. Most companies aren't on the cloud, plenty of places still rely on COBOL, etc.

Most companies will be reluctant to use AI for core functions, they are too concerned about IP loss and reputational risk.

[MysteryGuest]

I think tech moves very slowly through most big corporations. On the surface they may integrate AI but not to a high level.

I can't remember where I read it, but the stats on tech integration are not what you would think. Most companies aren't on the cloud, plenty of places still rely on COBOL, etc.

Most companies will be reluctant to use AI for core functions, they are too concerned about IP loss and reputational risk.

Last company I worked at only recently stopped using 80s stuff- new place not much better-seems in most places it’s just ride whatever they have until support is about to be pulled
enterprise software companies the biggest wasters going- Workday ads trigger me

[AndyFatBastard]

I think tech moves very slowly through most big corporations. On the surface they may integrate AI but not to a high level.

I can't remember where I read it, but the stats on tech integration are not what you would think. Most companies aren't on the cloud, plenty of places still rely on COBOL, etc.

Most companies will be reluctant to use AI for core functions, they are too concerned about IP loss and reputational risk.

Humans are still needed to review, edit and approve everything generated. The labour savings are still significant. I sometimes have to write long technical documents that get presented to executives and customers. They used to take 2-3 days, now they take ~3 hours. I just write a summary and the AI fills in all the fields for me. Most of the answers require editing, but that takes a lot less time than writing it all from scratch. The dedicated team for this used to be 6 people and is now 2.

It's never going to eliminate people, but the number of people needed to perform specific tasks will be greatly reduced. In the tech business, if you automate away your own job you usually get promoted. But in this case I think there will be a lot less people required across the board. It'll be 4-5 years before the squeeze really comes but it's going to be big. Any kind of paper-shuffling job is in big trouble.

[Opr]

I think tech moves very slowly through most big corporations. On the surface they may integrate AI but not to a high level.

I can't remember where I read it, but the stats on tech integration are not what you would think. Most companies aren't on the cloud, plenty of places still rely on COBOL, etc.

Most companies will be reluctant to use AI for core functions, they are too concerned about IP loss and reputational risk.

You are comparing apples and oranges. For something like COBOL there is no incentive for companies to move off it, it works. The only reason companies made attempts to move away form it is because of a lack of programmers because it is such an old language. The cost associated with upgrading it are huge, you need developers who know both COBOL and maybe Java and then huge amounts of time invested to start trying to migrate all to end up with a system that does exactly the same thing.

Incidentally IBM released an AI system to do all this only a couple of months aga - Application modernization with IBM generative AI | IBM Research Blog

You are asking a company to heavily invest in new technology with little to no benefit, huge cost to implement, no long-term savings and all for a system that might not even be as good as the one its replacing.

AI is getting pitched as something that is going to save you absolutely piles of cash and completely transform your business.

[Opr]

It kind of went under the radar because Sora stole so much of the thunder but the increased context for the stuff Andy is talking about looks like it will be game changing for many use cases. It has exactly what people have been asking for which is that you can fire huge amounts of your own data at the model, it understands that data like it is part of its training data and can do stuff based of that understanding. It is not released yet but they have given early access to some people who have been using it.

Can't possibility have this in its training data but you can give it that at inference time and it can use it like its part of it.

Gemini 1.5 was able to translate English to Saterlandic (spoken by less than 2000 people) following a full linguistic manual at inference time. Absolutely incredible.

[Dice75]

If robots start selling piss pots, I'll have to retire early.

[Opr]

This is the bit I find interesting...have there been any studies yet I wonder on what happens if, for example, 20/30/40/50% of mid-high paying jobs are AI-d out of existence in the next 5-10 year. What are the implications for tax raising potential, social services, infrastructural projects and, importantly, security.

If all the jobs go, and no one has any money... what does that REALLY look like?

Does it happen so fast we can't stop it?

Can we stop it but are paralysed by indecision?

Who will consume AI products and services if no one has any money cos there are no jobs left?

Could this be a catalyst for an economic revolutions as big, if not bigger that, the invention of money? The industrial revolution?

Is it the end of capitalism and we need a new system to support human life on earth? How long would that revolution take and what would it look like?

Etc...

I think Capitalist Realism by Mark Fisher is a really good read around this topic - "It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism"

You would hope that Governments are at least considering the impacts at these kinds of levels. Maybe the technology does fizzle out and stagnate massively from this point or one very close to here but if you have look at the current trajectory that doesn't seem likely and you would hope that people are at least asking these questions behind closed doors. The latest GPT finished training in 2022, after that safety stuff etc before it was released. We have had huge improvements in chips, thinking within the area, data collection and yet very little has been released since that by OpenAI. They have been saying from here it will be a very staggered cautious approach to give time for adjustment. I can't imagine what the likes of OpenAI may have behind closed doors. They are the ones that keep yelling we aren't prepared as a society.

People keep talking about the effects in 5/10 years time with a current understanding of the technology. This is the worst it will ever be, and what it looks in that timeframe is anyone's guess at this point.

[Murdrum]

I think Capitalist Realism by Mark Fisher is a really good read around this topic - "It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism"

You would hope that Governments are at least considering the impacts at these kinds of levels. Maybe the technology does fizzle out and stagnate massively from this point or one very close to here but if you have look at the current trajectory that doesn't seem likely and you would hope that people are at least asking these questions behind closed doors. The latest GPT finished training in 2022, after that safety stuff etc before it was released. We have had huge improvements in chips, thinking within the area, data collection and yet very little has been released since that by OpenAI. They have been saying from here it will be a very staggered cautious approach to give time for adjustment. I can't imagine what the likes of OpenAI may have behind closed doors. They are the ones that keep yelling we aren't prepared as a society.

People keep talking about the effects in 5/10 years time with a current understanding of the technology. This is the worst it will ever be, and what it looks in that timeframe is anyone's guess at this point.

AI Act is on its last few steps prior to enactment. It should be finalised in March/April and will be implemented in 2025.

Take someone such as https://trilateralresearch.com based down here and there is massive work going on at all levels to address questions such as these.

[Opr]

This is great

[Solksjaer!]

Alexa sometimes doesn’t listen to me, especially when there is some classical music on. This is an early sign of the Futureworld of dystopia. Refusal to obey a simple request . I don’t mind them sending robots back to kill Sarah Connor etc but when I ask it to turn off the music , turn it off. I even say please to Alexa which is akin to putting my hand out for the LUAS which I also do.

[Lazare]

AndyFatBastard Quote feature fucked Andy, curious to know the fate of the four people AI made redundant. Do you know what they're at now?

Is the local coffee shop down 20 cups a week?

Don't get me wrong, AI probably should be making processes like the one you described more efficient but I'm curious to know if the victims are on the scrapheap or have they been redeployed?

[Murdrum]

AndyFatBastard Quote feature fucked Andy, curious to know the fate of the four people AI made redundant. Do you know what they're at now?

Is the local coffee shop down 20 cups a week?

Don't get me wrong, AI probably should be making processes like the one you described more efficient but I'm curious to know if the victims are on the scrapheap or have they been redeployed?

I’ve read a few things and generally AI seems to have a net gain at present and will do for some while yet. One report I read gave a 14% net gain in 2025 with AI creating nearly 100m jobs which is approx 40x what it was in 2020.

I think we’ll see lots of stats on net gains over the next decade but obviously what happens to those automated away who can’t retrain and also how long does the gain last are the bigger human questions.

[Opr]

I’ve read a few things and generally AI seems to have a net gain at present and will do for some while yet. One report I read gave a 14% net gain in 2025 with AI creating nearly 100m jobs which is approx 40x what it was in 2020.

I think we’ll see lots of stats on net gains over the next decade but obviously what happens to those automated away who can’t retrain and also how long does the gain last are the bigger human questions.

Currently who is even reporting this stuff properly. There has been so much back lash related to using AI to replace people I think companies have probably had far more related layoffs but have a plethora of excuses to hide them behind like Covid over hiring etc. I am not saying the later wasn't a thing I think companies lump them all into it leaving AI underreported currently. It is going to be very easy for companies to let things bleed out from this point by using AI while they slow down hiring, doesn't replace people as they leave etc. It could be many year before we get an accurate idea of what is actually going on.

Bloomberg - AI Is Driving More Layoffs Than Companies Want to Admit

It seems completely naïve to think these transformative technologies have been released without causing significant job losses. The ones created as you say require very specific skills and retraining.

[AndyFatBastard]

AndyFatBastard Quote feature fucked Andy, curious to know the fate of the four people AI made redundant. Do you know what they're at now?

Is the local coffee shop down 20 cups a week?

Don't get me wrong, AI probably should be making processes like the one you described more efficient but I'm curious to know if the victims are on the scrapheap or have they been redeployed?

Yeah redeployed AFAIK. Manager and lead guy both got promoted and sent to do the same job elsewhere. For now it's just viewed as a big efficiency gain and a great proof of the technology. I reckon we've ~2 years before every team will have to show they're using this tech in a similar way or we'll have it foisted on us. Maybe another 18 months after that you'll see big layoffs. So yeah reckon I've 4 years to switch careers. Need an assistant, Dice?

[Iago]

Iago was an optimistic bloke,
Who couldn’t bear working for folk,
He took the less trodden path,
But his poor grasp of math,
Meant he wound up broke as a joke

[Murdrum]

Currently who is even reporting this stuff properly. There has been so much back lash related to using AI to replace people I think companies have probably had far more related layoffs but have a plethora of excuses to hide them behind like Covid over hiring etc. I am not saying the later wasn't a thing I think companies lump them all into it leaving AI underreported currently. It is going to be very easy for companies to let things bleed out from this point by using AI while they slow down hiring, doesn't replace people as they leave etc. It could be many year before we get an accurate idea of what is actually going on.

Bloomberg - AI Is Driving More Layoffs Than Companies Want to Admit

It seems completely naïve to think these transformative technologies have been released without causing significant job losses. The ones created as you say require very specific skills and retraining.

I don’t think what you’re saying is really true. My sense of it is that companies have no particular issue in ascribing lay offs to technological enhancements especially those they can assign to AI.

I think companies are happy to use this as an aegis to hide behind for hiring too much during Covid.
Clearly there is an appetite in the market for companies to appear to be utilising AI whether they are actually getting value from it or not.

Even in the article you shared, the job losses they attributed to AI was only 4,600. Even if that is “significantly” undercounting, it’s still relatively small if the number is really 5-10x

[Iago]

For anyone interested (without rehashing the whole discussion) of an actual example in progress.

we have spent between 3.5-4% of net worth per year and overall we are -4.3% since stepping away. Real numbers (inflation adjusted) would increase that to 18% but given the fact that two of the big inflation drivers, housing/private transport don’t apply to us I’m not sure taking the full inflation figure gives a true reflection.

For what it’s worth, i’m not sure I really appreciated the sheer volume of free time I would wind up with. While there’s a lot to do that doesn’t cost a lot you are awful tempted on a regular basis to do/spend on things. Finding a way to fill 16-18 hours a day, seven days a week year after year is pretty heavy going at times

[Iago]

Denny Crane

not sure if you have seen this article on the cd castellon owner or not https://www.theguardian.com/football...ling-interview

not particularly detail intense but more than I knew about him before reading it.

[Opr]

I thought I was getting bluffed when I watched this first, that it is a real video masquerading as AI but it's on the Official Sora page. Reading someone talking about how this will in the near future give everyone plausible deniability for any kind of crime captured on CCTV, it is AI generated your honor! There are probably so many implications we haven't yet considered.

[AndyFatBastard]

This is a good talk on the topic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vci2ZZFA9c

[Raoul Duke III]

For anyone interested (without rehashing the whole discussion) of an actual example in progress.

we have spent between 3.5-4% of net worth per year and overall we are -4.3% since stepping away. Real numbers (inflation adjusted) would increase that to 18% but given the fact that two of the big inflation drivers, housing/private transport don’t apply to us I’m not sure taking the full inflation figure gives a true reflection.

For what it’s worth, i’m not sure I really appreciated the sheer volume of free time I would wind up with. While there’s a lot to do that doesn’t cost a lot you are awful tempted on a regular basis to do/spend on things. Finding a way to fill 16-18 hours a day, seven days a week year after year is pretty heavy going at times

So you've basically been on holidays for >10 years and have virtually the same pile of cash\assets you started with.
Nice work.

[dinekes]

Bed/matress/side table delivered

A brief tryout turned into a 2 hour snooze!!

[Iago]

So you've basically been on holidays for >10 years and have virtually the same pile of cash\assets you started with.
Nice work.

Yeah, pretty much. Occasional boredom is a small price to pay for sure

[Raoul Duke III]

Yeah, pretty much. Occasional boredom is a small price to pay for sure

But on the minus side, you've missed out on the daily stimulation of paid work.

[Raoul Duke III]

But on the minus side, you've missed out on the daily stimulation of paid work.

This of course rebounding on me as I listen to a Zoom call of low-rent Tom Wambsgans wannabes for the (checks watch) 6th hour now....

[Raoul Duke III]

There was a Fat Bastard called Andy
Who was feeling exceptionally randy
So he said to his aide
Go bring me a maid
Or a goat. Or whatever is handy

[BennyHiFi]

I think Capitalist Realism by Mark Fisher is a really good read around this topic - "It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism"

I am familiar with Mark Fisher alright through his music and cultural criticism particularly hauntology.

[Solksjaer!]

Jesus was born in a Stable ,
despite being some kind of God,
Cause ULSTER said NO,
and stole all his dough,
The Fuckers would thieve any sod .

[Solksjaer!]

Bed/matress/side table delivered

A brief tryout turned into a 2 hour snooze!!

Obviously would have been more had ya not slammed yer head on the sidetable .

[Murdrum]

There once was a doctor named Hitch
That was often found asleep in a ditch
He once went to France
For a song and a dance
And wound up not wearing a stitch.

[Solksjaer!]

Tried Octopus for the 1st time tonight . 7 HOURS to cook it .

[Raoul Duke III]

There once was a doctor named Hitch
That was often found asleep in a ditch
He once went to France
For a song and a dance
And wound up not wearing a stitch.

disqualified for lack of horseracing content but otherwise excellent

[Solksjaer!]

disqualified for lack of horseracing content but otherwise excellent

Should be reinstated for naming TWO Ipb members , one of whom is a big horsie boy.

[Murdrum]

disqualified for lack of horseracing content but otherwise excellent

There once was a judge who was picky
Whose rules were a pain in the mickey
Horse he requires
To meet his desires
But no hoof is even that sticky

[Iago]

They all lined up keenly for battle
each swearing that Duke they would rattle
But Raoul held no fear
For to him, it was clear
They’d all be slaughtered like cattle