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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
How would he get out of Russia though? Borders are effectively sealed."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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I feel this is going to be a brutal recession. We've (the world) no gas left in the tank in terms of economic firepower to lift economies as they fall off a cliff. National debts are through the roof. Italy, which if it collapses the euro collapses, is at 150% debt to GDP and no hope of ever reversing that, it can only get worse. It almost seems like a perfect storm - two years of covid to sap the life out of everything and then the inflation crisis. I'm no forecaster, but it really seems like a big one is coming. Much bigger than 2007, as that was largely financial, but this is a much deeper malaise ala 'Japan for the last 30 years' where there is very little space to bring things back on the boil.
Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit a "mild" one.
Now, it's warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve's quest to knock down stubbornly high inflation.
"We will get a major recession," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday.
The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a "long time" before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy.
"We regard it...as highly likely that the Fed will have to step on the brakes even more firmly, and a deep recession will be needed to bring inflation to heel," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in its report with the ominous title, "Why the coming recession will be worse than expected.""We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI feel this is going to be a brutal recession. We've (the world) no gas left in the tank in terms of economic firepower to lift economies as they fall off a cliff. National debts are through the roof. Italy, which if it collapses the euro collapses, is at 150% debt to GDP and no hope of ever reversing that, it can only get worse. It almost seems like a perfect storm - two years of covid to sap the life out of everything and then the inflation crisis. I'm no forecaster, but it really seems like a big one is coming. Much bigger than 2007, as that was largely financial, but this is a much deeper malaise ala 'Japan for the last 30 years' where there is very little space to bring things back on the boil.
Lost zero relatives to covid bring on the next shitstorm. .
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Nah. That bit is grand. Montenegro then freedom. There's some weird relationship with Montenegro - it's where all the international companies 'quitting' Russia have gone to, as Russians can work there without a visa. So they work there and send the money back."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI don't think the borders are in any way sealed though. A quick Google suggests the trains Talinn to St Peters burg and the buses are still running. And the ferries Finland to St Petersburg.
In all seriousness, he'd want to get out quick. Lots of signals pointing to general mobilisation."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI feel this is going to be a brutal recession. We've (the world) no gas left in the tank in terms of economic firepower to lift economies as they fall off a cliff. National debts are through the roof. Italy, which if it collapses the euro collapses, is at 150% debt to GDP and no hope of ever reversing that, it can only get worse. It almost seems like a perfect storm - two years of covid to sap the life out of everything and then the inflation crisis. I'm no forecaster, but it really seems like a big one is coming. Much bigger than 2007, as that was largely financial, but this is a much deeper malaise ala 'Japan for the last 30 years' where there is very little space to bring things back on the boil."I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
Hey Hitch, I've a m8 sitting on a large chunk of cash. Like yourself they are convinced a major crash is coming so have sold nearly all assets. I think they are mental as inflation is going to nibble it to death. What should they do with it? Same question to V for Vendetta
Sitting in cash is crazy right now. Should be borrowing cash and buying assets. The loan will get inflated away.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Yeah, I was looking at flights. Seems like the only international flights out are to the various shitholes that are supporting, or at least not condemning, RuSSia. So he can fly to say, Belgrade, and then travel on.
In all seriousness, he'd want to get out quick. Lots of signals pointing to general mobilisation."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
Cant be worse than the 80s . Seems like a lot of businesses are struggling for staff which is a polar opposite to that crises.
Lost zero relatives to covid bring on the next shitstorm. ."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Had a 6yo Ukranian join my football team last week, poor lad finding it tough as no English. Started bawling crying last week when everyone was talking English. Couple weeks under his belt in school now so hopefully a bit more comfortable at training tomorrow. Has a shot on him Ronald Koeman would be proud of so I have high hopes for him getting us to the Champions League by 2040
Tough times for him, the mammy and toddler here with aul lad back at home fighting.
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One thing about that Depp/Heard case is if you're ever in court dont patronize or be sarcastic to laywers when they're asking a question. Like the AH lawyer was stating that JD had a mega pint of wine which he responded sort of sarcastically "megapint?" "Umm, I had a large glass of wine"
The lawyer then got JD to read an earlier transcript where JD uses the term megapint.
Only dipping in now and again to it.
It seems AH has recordings of him bashing cupboards etc but admits throwing pots and pans at him.
Part of her evidence was use of a particular make up compact (which she claims hid her bruises) They were very specific about it however the company who made it issued s statement saying it was not in production at the time AH claimed she was using it.
Jury must be bored out of their brain though sitting through the endless "please go to page 123 line 10" bits.Last edited by dinekes; 27-04-22, 10:16.
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Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
Class. Trip report when back ?
The old course is a thing of beauty tbh. never played anywhere so nice (which doesn't mean too much as i've not played that many courses). pine trees everywhere, heather as rough. and bunkers everywhere. if you're in the heather, you're just praying you can just pop it back out on the fairway, as it's lethal in there. apparently it's cut quite short (7 or 8 inches) most of the time, but they let it grow when there are big tournaments there.
it's worth checking out some of the pics as it's sublime, especially the 10th which starts from up high on a beautiful par 4. once you hole out, there is a little cafeteria there serving breakfast (open all year round every day), so we had a couple of sausages and an orange juice before carrying on.
Welcome to Sunningdale Golf Club. "All that one would hope to find in the ideal golf club is in abundance at Sunningdale." Sir Michael Bonallack.
After the golf, had lunch on the terrace overlooking the 18th, lovely carvery lunch accompanied by some amazing wines (chateau leoville barton 2008 amongst others).
Awesome day! and for anyone wanting to join, don't bother, they've closed the waiting list as it's just too long, but just in case you get offered a place, just a measley one off GBP44k joining fee and an annual fee of 4.5k
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI feel this is going to be a brutal recession. We've (the world) no gas left in the tank in terms of economic firepower to lift economies as they fall off a cliff. National debts are through the roof. Italy, which if it collapses the euro collapses, is at 150% debt to GDP and no hope of ever reversing that, it can only get worse. It almost seems like a perfect storm - two years of covid to sap the life out of everything and then the inflation crisis. I'm no forecaster, but it really seems like a big one is coming. Much bigger than 2007, as that was largely financial, but this is a much deeper malaise ala 'Japan for the last 30 years' where there is very little space to bring things back on the boil.
That seems a little ominous to me
dobby
Ross Castle was a fantastic place for the family over the week. Killarney is a lovely part of the world for families as long as you avoid the town at night
stopped off here for a nose and a bit of lunch. Honestly probably the nicest chowder I've ever had.People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
I'm no expert but have anecdotaly noticed a lot of (inflation buster / resession buster) type notices in large chain shops across the country in the last two weeks.
That seems a little ominous to me
dobby
Ross Castle was a fantastic place for the family over the week. Killarney is a lovely part of the world for families as long as you avoid the town at night
stopped off here for a nose and a bit of lunch. Honestly probably the nicest chowder I've ever had.
Heading down ourselves for the June BH and staying in the Europe. It's also bike fest weekend and if anyone hasn't been, just do it even once. Cannot bloody wait.
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Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
I'm no expert but have anecdotaly noticed a lot of (inflation buster / resession buster) type notices in large chain shops across the country in the last two weeks.
That seems a little ominous to me
dobby
Ross Castle was a fantastic place for the family over the week. Killarney is a lovely part of the world for families as long as you avoid the town at night
stopped off here for a nose and a bit of lunch. Honestly probably the nicest chowder I've ever had."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Got told we are unsuitable to host a Ukrainian family because we refused to keep our dogs in a cage while the family stayed with us. Lol. What mental person in charge of this expects people to cage their pets full time. Insanity.
They can't be too hard up for space if they're making such stipulations.
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Originally posted by dobby View Post
Mighty stuff. Hope you stayed in the Castlerosse hotel and only visited Ross Castle tho
Heading down ourselves for the June BH and staying in the Europe. It's also bike fest weekend and if anyone hasn't been, just do it even once. Cannot bloody wait.
Ross castle is class though. did the tour and the young one get her bravery sticker for getting down the tower once the tour was over (both of them were shitting it)
However, once outside, did the boat tour and then when getting back the daughter had the best craic just climbing the castle walls facing the pier. Could have saved a fortune and just done that.
I genuinely would recommend the Castlerosse to anyone with a young family, even the walk to the town is spectacular. €650 for 4 nights B&B was pretty good imoPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by dobby View PostGot told we are unsuitable to host a Ukrainian family because we refused to keep our dogs in a cage while the family stayed with us. Lol. What mental person in charge of this expects people to cage their pets full time. Insanity.
They can't be too hard up for space if they're making such stipulations.
Maybe they want something in the way of a box ticking exercise like a way of keeping them them outside when the visitors are aloneTurning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I know its an old idea at this stage, but we started shopping in Aldi/Lidl recently, just for a bit of a change as the local shop is a Tesco and therefore, by definition, shite, and its mad just how much cheaper they are.Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I know its an old idea at this stage, but we started shopping in Aldi/Lidl recently, just for a bit of a change as the local shop is a Tesco and therefore, by definition, shite, and its mad just how much cheaper they are.
Lidl is pretty ok, especially the bakery and fruit, but sauces, condiments and frozen foods are absolute gack.
Local butchers for meat (Nolans Kilcullen), local veg shop (Fruit4U in Naas) and unfortunately usually have to trapes around both Dunnes, Tesco and Lidl for remaining bits.
Feel sorry for anyone doing "full shop" in one of the German chains, especially a man of your means.Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostWas reading this morning that we should be upwards of 70% renewable energy* by 2030. We're really leaning into the new way of doing things. Great to see.
* or is it just electricity and not all energy? I suppose the two will become closer over time anyway, as most vehicles become electric over time. Hard to see anyone buying a non-electric car within a few years. Certainly there will be no-one buying a non-electric car in 2030, so it will be just a matter of working through the legacy fuel cars.
Ireland has a great opportunity to be a global leader here. We could build huge swathes of offshore wind which could more than power our entire country with significant excess for export in even a reasonable wind scenario. Onshore wind has a load factor of about 35% in good parts, offshore is closer to 45-50%. Ireland has electricity needs of about 25m MWh (or 25bn KWh). That means we would need about 6,000MW of power generation (365 * 24hours), with some room for error say 6,500MW.
We have already offshore wind installed capacity in Ireland of 3,025MW, which on a 35% LF equates to 1,000MW.
The cost of adding a further 10,000MW of offshore (to add 5,000MW at 50%) would be around E2.5m/MW would be around E15bn and would entirely cover our electricity needs in future.
What it would also require would be significantly more substantial interconnectivity to France and UK, where we would be able import their Nuclear power in times of low wind and send excess wind to them in time of higher wind, bringing costs for both of down.
For context Finland just finished a Nuclear power plant called Olkiluoto with 1,600 MW capacity and is reported to cost E11bn so that’s a more reliable option when built but we wouldn’t any anywhere near the capability to build one on time or on cost, when you look at the NCH for example.
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Originally posted by Pat Mustard View Post
I find the meat and veg in Aldi to be pretty poor quality.
Lidl is pretty ok, especially the bakery and fruit, but sauces, condiments and frozen foods are absolute gack.
Local butchers for meat (Nolans Kilcullen), local veg shop (Fruit4U in Naas) and unfortunately usually have to trapes around both Dunnes, Tesco and Lidl for remaining bits.
Feel sorry for anyone doing "full shop" in one of the German chains, especially a man of your means.
The contrast, I suppose, is with Tesco, which is uniformly shite. A local Dunnes would be different as those are class."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostI just finished Lords of Finance, a must-read for anyone interested in the history of the financial system. It covers the prominent Central Bankers (& Keynes) from the end of WW1 up until WW2, it's really fascinating. Churchill pops up for a cameo appearance putting the English back on the gold standard with horrible consequences.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/...?ie=UTF8&psc=1
And just to make it interesting to Hitch - Quite a few of the bankers end up re-marrying women 30 years their senior
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
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We were long time Lidl and then Aldi shoppers but started using Dunnes online when we had COVID and it takes all the hassle out of it. Get the €10 per €50 and works out about €20 more than we spent in Lidl/Aldi.His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.
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Lads there is virtually no difference between the meat in any of the supermarket chains when you're buying it in a vacuum sealed pack. All of the standard meat is cheap and of the same quality. However one of the best value pieces of meat is available from Aldi....
Dry aged rib eye on the bone (marked as an angus rib roast on the bone). It's usually 1.2-2kg in size and has a couple of bones. This is my go to for grilling on the bbq. Typically I split it in half and have two thick steaks, sometimes I take the bone off as it's easier to handle. Less than €20/kg! Good luck finding a decent quality dry aged steak for anywhere near that price. It's just as good to fry if you prefer and of course roasting as name on the package suggests. Watch out as sometimes they have 10/20% off on deals and I've been lucky to get 30% off with the expiry date of a week remaining.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostWhy do you think Tesco is bad Hitch?"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by elbows View PostWe were long time Lidl and then Aldi shoppers but started using Dunnes online when we had COVID and it takes all the hassle out of it. Get the €10 per €50 and works out about €20 more than we spent in Lidl/Aldi.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Just the choices seem to be limited to bad-brands. Like mustard. It seems to be primarily Colmans. Noticed that with a few items, that the choices are limited it really common brand names, rather than a decent range at different price points. Its Tesco Park Pointe also, so not like its a small shop.
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Originally posted by coillcam View Post
Tesco carried a massive brand name range for a long time but binned loads of options in recent years to optimize/save costs. They've had their clubcard system the longest and I'd imagine were using that data to inform these types of decisions well ahead of the rest of the competition. Lidl only recently cottoned on to the use of data/rewards. Their discounts app isn't out that long.
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
Maybe they want something in the way of a box ticking exercise like a way of keeping them them outside when the visitors are alone
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostThey have their own customer data science company.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunnhumby
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Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View PostI really enjoy going to supermarkets, so would be in Tesco, Lidl, Aldi, Fresh, Dunnes, M&S and get different things in each. DINK, double income no kitchentowel.
Does anywhere have good strawberrys? All seem shite.
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Originally posted by Goodluck2me View Post
Very much electricity and not energy, for energy you’d need everyone moving to electric cars, electric Lorries and most importantly all-electric heating systems in houses, replacing oil, gas and peat (!), which you can imagine won’t be easy. None of which would make sense unless the electricity is generated from renewable sources.
Ireland has a great opportunity to be a global leader here. We could build huge swathes of offshore wind which could more than power our entire country with significant excess for export in even a reasonable wind scenario. Onshore wind has a load factor of about 35% in good parts, offshore is closer to 45-50%. Ireland has electricity needs of about 25m MWh (or 25bn KWh). That means we would need about 6,000MW of power generation (365 * 24hours), with some room for error say 6,500MW.
We have already offshore wind installed capacity in Ireland of 3,025MW, which on a 35% LF equates to 1,000MW.
The cost of adding a further 10,000MW of offshore (to add 5,000MW at 50%) would be around E2.5m/MW would be around E15bn and would entirely cover our electricity needs in future.
What it would also require would be significantly more substantial interconnectivity to France and UK, where we would be able import their Nuclear power in times of low wind and send excess wind to them in time of higher wind, bringing costs for both of down.
For context Finland just finished a Nuclear power plant called Olkiluoto with 1,600 MW capacity and is reported to cost E11bn so that’s a more reliable option when built but we wouldn’t any anywhere near the capability to build one on time or on cost, when you look at the NCH for example.Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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Originally posted by Goodluck2me View Post
I read the Bufffet book written by Roger Lowenstein, would highly recommend to anyone who likes to invest their own money, or work for companies that do. Fair bit of serendipity that would imagine, but the basic premise of patience and waiting for value seems like a good lesson for life.
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Originally posted by Goodluck2me View Post
I’m not sure I’d be in that camp unless you’re certain those asset are producing income which can more than cover the interest payments when the inevitable crash happens. Asset prices should fall or stagnate if rates go up, should be good for those looking to get their first home, or indeed trade up.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I know its an old idea at this stage, but we started shopping in Aldi/Lidl recently, just for a bit of a change as the local shop is a Tesco and therefore, by definition, shite, and its mad just how much cheaper they are.
As im just cooking for myself at least half the week I've started using the butchers/fishmonger /greengrocer more, as you can buy what you need rather than the large multipacks lidl insist on selling you. Im not spending any more money but I've much less waste, and it's amazing how much longer fruit, veg and herbs from the grocer last. And the I couldn't go back to lidl fish and meat, with the exception of maybe steaks.
airport, lol
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