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    What are the major effects of this clever decision making by the US other than their cratering stock market and spiraling inflation?

    Comment


      This feed on market reaction to Liz's budget is a sight to behold.


      "I've been reporting on budgets for 20 years now, and I can't remember another budget - Labour, Coalition, Conservatives - that has had anything like this reaction.
      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

      Comment


        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
        This feed on market reaction to Liz's budget is a sight to behold.
        It does seem like a spectacularly ill-judged mini budget indeed.

        The UK's long, slow slide into irrelevance continues but the pace does seem to be picking up. This will bring both risks and opportunities to our shores...
        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

        Comment


          Originally posted by Keane View Post
          What are the major effects of this clever decision making by the US other than their cratering stock market and spiraling inflation?
          Massive expansion of energy exports to offset the costs of inflation.

          Strengthening dollar to make imports cheaper.

          Much easier to raise debt with a strengthened domestic currency.


          Everywhere is being battered, but the US fundamentals from energy exports and the eventual inflation-reduction benefits of the strong dollar will protect them a lot more than us. And this was all role-playable, as the benefits for energy exports and the 'flight to security' to the dollar, are well-known market effects going back decades.



          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

          Comment


            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

            It does seem like a spectacularly ill-judged mini budget indeed.

            The UK's long, slow slide into irrelevance continues but the pace does seem to be picking up. This will bring both risks and opportunities to our shores...
            Yeah! Its a bit of a mad country, London vs everywhere else. You could easily see London shooting ahead from these budget changes, but the benefits are so localised vs the national broader harm.
            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

            Comment


              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

              Yeah! Its a bit of a mad country, London vs everywhere else. You could easily see London shooting ahead from these budget changes, but the benefits are so localised vs the national broader harm.
              The Brexit effects on the City are going to keep chipping away at London too. They're fucked.

              Good job QE2 isn't around to see it.
              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

              Comment


                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                The Brexit effects on the City are going to keep chipping away at London too. They're fucked.

                Good job QE2 isn't around to see it.
                They're fucked is akin to my Trump is toast claim.

                When does the shitshow begin and what will happen?

                I ask that question to contestant no.1 Cilla .

                Comment


                  Cilla here. ASL?
                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                    They're fucked is akin to my Trump is toast claim.

                    When does the shitshow begin and what will happen?

                    I ask that question to contestant no.1 Cilla .
                    It's already begun; see the last four Prime Ministers.
                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                      It's already begun; see the last four Prime Ministers.
                      Meh. Its at code yellow . Describe code RED

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post

                        Meh. Its at code yellow . Describe code RED
                        The Return of Boris.
                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                        Comment


                          20 quid tickets to go see a Bundesliga game while in Berlin, seems very fair. Myself and Boy going to see Hertha Berlin take on Schalke.

                          Anyone aware of anything attractive to teenager types in that city? (like a Tivoli Gardens equivalent would be excellent)
                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                            I know you like going with your gut on these things, but that is wrong.

                            There are indeed a few 'wars' / aka skirmishes that last a few days, but once it drags on longer it has a much higher probability of dragging on for years. So the probability of a war lasting for a long time is a factor of how long it has already dragged on for. E.g. most wars that go over a year in length last for an average of eight years, and we're already at seven months of Ukraine.

                            The mismatched antagonists bit makes no sense. The Iraq war lasted seven years, for example with massively mismatched militaries.
                            I read similar figures before. It makes sense that the average increase as time goes on, same as peoples ages or any group of numbers really.

                            But I’d wonder, as the upper limit could be 100+ years, and if its asymmetric and skews the average significantly.
                            Feels like the median might be more practical.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                              I read similar figures before. It makes sense that the average increase as time goes on, same as peoples ages or any group of numbers really.

                              But I’d wonder, as the upper limit could be 100+ years, and if its asymmetric and skews the average significantly.
                              Feels like the median might be more practical.
                              Not sure its quite as simple as a bigger number means a higher average! Think its that a war lasting longer than a year means it is more likely to be intractable, or have some deep simmering underlying rationale, that isn't easily solved. As in the duration will naturally increase as the current duration increases, but the idea is that the expected duration increases more than simple averages.

                              'fun' list here of wars by duration. With credit particularly due to the Anglo-Zanzibar war which lasted a whopping 38 minutes. Of course, Russia-Ukraine remains a 'special operation' rather than a war
                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                20 quid tickets to go see a Bundesliga game while in Berlin, seems very fair. Myself and Boy going to see Hertha Berlin take on Schalke.

                                Anyone aware of anything attractive to teenager types in that city? (like a Tivoli Gardens equivalent would be excellent)
                                My son lives there so loads to do (not sure he would want his father accompanying him while he tries out many of them though).

                                You could bring him to Sachenhausen Concentration Camp (about 30 minutes on train if I recall correctly). Ye will remember this

                                Comment


                                  Bacon, sausage, and coleslaw sandwich for lunch, to celebrate turning the grand old age of 45. Coleslaw was the innovation. Adds a nice feel to the sandwich. Just need to come up with a name for it now, and then live off the copyright income. 'bacsslaw' sounds a bit too eastern european. Maybe a more general name like 'Pig in Slop'
                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by The Istanbul View Post

                                    My son lives there so loads to do (not sure he would want his father accompanying him while he tries out many of them though).

                                    You could bring him to Sachenhausen Concentration Camp (about 30 minutes on train if I recall correctly). Ye will remember this
                                    I'll have two daughters as well in tow. Yeah, that could be one to add into the list alright.
                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                    Comment


                                      Can we mine the Irish Sea and get stricter on handing out passports to English people please.
                                      let them rot and deal with the consequences of their own actions- we don’t need any more of them over here
                                      Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                        Not sure its quite as simple as a bigger number means a higher average.Think its that a war lasting longer than a year means it is more likely to be intractable, or have some deep simmering underlying rationale, that isn't easily solved.
                                        There may also be some other phenomena at play. But the part in bold is definitely a significant factor.

                                        Say the under/over is 1*year, and the overall average is 4-5*years. By taking “the wars that last a year” you’re only taking the top half of the data, so makes sense that the average of that is 8 years.
                                        (*made up numbers, but probably the ballpark)

                                        Just like with age. As you age life expectancy goes up.

                                        As in the duration will naturally increase as the current duration increases, but the idea is that the expected duration increases more than simple averages.
                                        Not sure what you mean my simple average. But as above I’d guess it’s not a normal distribution. Which is why I think the average is misleading. The average after a year being 8 years total, doesn’t mean 8 years being expected or likely after a year.

                                        Similar to the way life expectancy is the average age of death, but most people live longer than average. (asymmetric, but the opposite way)

                                        Comment


                                          I’ve no data to back this up, but I would assume that most people have an above average number of legs.

                                          Averages can be misleading.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                            I’ve no data to back this up, but I would assume that most people have an above average number of legs.

                                            Averages can be misleading.
                                            Depends on the number of decimal places used and if we are rounding to the nearest whole number.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                              I’ve no data to back this up, but I would assume that most people have an above average number of legs.

                                              Averages can be misleading.
                                              exactly wrong - more amputees than "extra legged" people

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                Bacon, sausage, and coleslaw sandwich for lunch, to celebrate turning the grand old age of 45. Coleslaw was the innovation. Adds a nice feel to the sandwich. Just need to come up with a name for it now, and then live off the copyright income. 'bacsslaw' sounds a bit too eastern european. Maybe a more general name like 'Pig in Slop'


                                                Keep it simple - A BSC sandwich.

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by 6starpool View Post
                                                  Depends on the number of decimal places used and if we are rounding to the nearest whole number.
                                                  None of this rounding nonsense. Using the actual number.

                                                  Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                  exactly wrong - more amputees than "extra legged" people
                                                  Think you’ve made a mathematical blunder somewhere.
                                                  More amputees is exactly what I’m assuming.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                    Ha. I don't know. You just can't take this type of hit - to everyone, not just the PIIGS and then get through it calmly. Italy is obv our weakest link and really they are now in a situation where they can only survive if the ECB continues to buy their debt forever. Massively aging population, most of the innovation is happening elsewhere in the world, and then we go and inflict these hits on ourselves. We aren't being well-led and we need to be a lot smarter about things. We can handle the Russian hit, barely, but theres the massive upcoming economic conflicts with China and then probably India after that. We need to make decisions in those conflicts that benefit us and not be driven by the US. The US is the master at making decisions in their own interest.
                                                    The US have been a federation much longer than us. They have better federal structures and processes and an obviously more homogeneous population.

                                                    Project Europe in real jeopardy now. The piper has to be paid for years of QE, Covid and the war while we are still reeling from Brexit. Hard decisions will eventually have to be made (yes Liz you can't borrow your way out) that will equate to political suicide for governing parties. It's a dream environment for fringe parties like the Botherhood, MAGA or the Shinners with projectionist \ nationalist \ socially conservative leanings.

                                                    I'm a pretty optimistic person at the best of times but I did despair listening to the news this morning. Let's hope we don't experience the same fin de siecle hangover we did after transitioning from the 19th to the 20th century.
                                                    Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                    Comment


                                                      Originally posted by Lao Lao View Post



                                                      Keep it simple - A BSC sandwich.
                                                      The auld BASIC sandwich. Bacon And Sausage with Innovative Coleslaw.

                                                      Can't beat a Vagas club sandwich although as soon as you order it to the table you invariably get stacked and have to sit there like a sad cnut woofing it down with no chips.

                                                      Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by Wombatman View Post

                                                        The US have been a federation much longer than us. They have better federal structures and processes and an obviously more homogeneous population.

                                                        Project Europe in real jeopardy now. The piper has to be paid for years of QE, Covid and the war while we are still reeling from Brexit. Hard decisions will eventually have to be made (yes Liz you can't borrow your way out) that will equate to political suicide for governing parties. It's a dream environment for fringe parties like the Botherhood, MAGA or the Shinners with projectionist \ nationalist \ socially conservative leanings.

                                                        I'm a pretty optimistic person at the best of times but I did despair listening to the news this morning. Let's hope we don't experience the same fin de siecle hangover we did after transitioning from the 19th to the 20th century.
                                                        The move in Italy has been pretty telling and what’s a little scary about it is how broad based it is.
                                                        When you look at the populations they’re appealing to, they are often winning favour with the groups that make up the plurality or majority
                                                        They’re not dominating some minority groups, it’s a wholesale shift in a very short period of time.

                                                        Summary of them here

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                          Re:Attic conversions.

                                                          If you plan on the attic room being a bedroom, or anything other than storage. It becomes a 3 story house and stairway should be firerated. A lot of people don’t do that which which means they can’t say it’s a bedroom when selling. Money down the drain imo
                                                          Don't people sell it as not a bedroom and people use it for a bedroom anyway? Same as loads of houses I saw for sale with a granny flat in the garden that they clearly specify wink wink youre totally not allowed to rent this out.

                                                          Comment


                                                            Dunno what people are getting worked up about SF for when you see the disgraceful can kicking on pensions from FGF last week - weak
                                                            Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by Murdrum View Post

                                                              The move in Italy has been pretty telling and what’s a little scary about it is how broad based it is.
                                                              When you look at the populations they’re appealing to, they are often winning favour with the groups that make up the plurality or majority
                                                              They’re not dominating some minority groups, it’s a wholesale shift in a very short period of time.

                                                              Summary of them here
                                                              So are they Italian Trumpists? (presumably with better food and dress sense)
                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                              Comment


                                                                On the plus side, shopping trips to Newry may be back to the agenda shortly
                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                Comment


                                                                  First Woman PM in Italys history and all she gets is negative press- typical misogyny
                                                                  Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                    The UK/Euro crisis is in full swing. This is *way* worse than corona.

                                                                    I see the US is flying ahead economically, even if their stock market is taking a tumble.

                                                                    The reason - as well-flagged - is that we implemented sanctions with our hearts and the US implemented sanctions with their heads.

                                                                    Anyway, no going back now, and it's better to live in a collection of countries that act with their hearts. But this isn't going to be pleasant. A few years of not very pleasant things by any reasonable estimate.
                                                                    its a lot more to do with the US being energy independent, our approach in europe we think everyone sticking solar panels on their houses is somehow going to solve things

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

                                                                      I know you like going with your gut on these things, but that is wrong.

                                                                      There are indeed a few 'wars' / aka skirmishes that last a few days, but once it drags on longer it has a much higher probability of dragging on for years. So the probability of a war lasting for a long time is a factor of how long it has already dragged on for. E.g. most wars that go over a year in length last for an average of eight years, and we're already at seven months of Ukraine.

                                                                      The mismatched antagonists bit makes no sense. The Iraq war lasted seven years, for example with massively mismatched militaries.
                                                                      The Iraq war, to push Iraq out of Kuwait - lasted 100 hours. NATO pushing Russia out of ukraine would be shorter.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Can't remember who kept recommending that Chinese spot on Cathedral Street. I thinks it's called M&L. Jesus what a feast. Won't be long before I'm back. Top recommending.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                          20 quid tickets to go see a Bundesliga game while in Berlin, seems very fair. Myself and Boy going to see Hertha Berlin take on Schalke.

                                                                          Anyone aware of anything attractive to teenager types in that city? (like a Tivoli Gardens equivalent would be excellent)
                                                                          Try and get a rousing chorus going of "F*ck you Hertha, you'll never win the league"

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post

                                                                            Try and get a rousing chorus going of "F*ck you Hertha, you'll never win the league"
                                                                            I thought no-one ever wins the league except Bayern!
                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                              I thought no-one ever wins the league except Bayern!
                                                                              That's a useless chant .

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                This feed on market reaction to Liz's budget is a sight to behold.
                                                                                Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                                    Think you’ve made a mathematical blunder somewhere.
                                                                                    More amputees is exactly what I’m assuming.
                                                                                    pure unadulterated comprehension error! You are of course correct.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      This gets me every time
                                                                                       
                                                                                      Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        This gets me every time
                                                                                         
                                                                                        Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          915,000 impressions on my tweets over the last 28 days. Thats a rather impressive reach. Was looking at the business school twitter account data and they'd be lucky to reach maybe 10,000 impressions a month. Leaving aside the 'but for what' aspect of the whole activity. Although I was contacted by a minister last week about writing a report on a new car tax, which could only be through tweet reach, so maybe it has some impact.
                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post

                                                                                            Don't people sell it as not a bedroom and people use it for a bedroom anyway? Same as loads of houses I saw for sale with a granny flat in the garden that they clearly specify wink wink youre totally not allowed to rent this out.
                                                                                            That definitely happens. But being a “wink wink bedroom” will have a lower ROI than a compliant bedroom. It comes with inherent an insurance risk. It goes on the market as a 3bed, not a 4bed. The mortgage and valuation are based on it being a 3 bed etc.
                                                                                            If was a buyer in that spot, I’d be leveraging through to lowball the offer.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                              915,000 impressions on my tweets over the last 28 days. Thats a rather impressive reach. Was looking at the business school twitter account data and they'd be lucky to reach maybe 10,000 impressions a month. Leaving aside the 'but for what' aspect of the whole activity. Although I was contacted by a minister last week about writing a report on a new car tax, which could only be through tweet reach, so maybe it has some impact.
                                                                                              Do you genuinely have no 'what for' objective? Seems you have successfully become a Twitter personality, is that the end goal in itself or do you want it to open some doors for you?
                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                Do you genuinely have no 'what for' objective? Seems you have successfully become a Twitter personality, is that the end goal in itself or do you want it to open some doors for you?
                                                                                                Surely you kbow the answer

                                                                                                Groupie sex with his followers .

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                  Do you genuinely have no 'what for' objective? Seems you have successfully become a Twitter personality, is that the end goal in itself or do you want it to open some doors for you?
                                                                                                  Building up a potential audience for his podcast.
                                                                                                  Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                    Do you genuinely have no 'what for' objective? Seems you have successfully become a Twitter personality, is that the end goal in itself or do you want it to open some doors for you?
                                                                                                    I remember Hitch mentioning something years ago about the Twitter persona being good for his career. I can imagine it is provided you don’t leave yourself too exposed

                                                                                                    TBH, I was thinking that Hitch might be someone that ends up on the line up for Kilkenomics, make of that what you will but probably good for getting on to those panel type events.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post

                                                                                                      Do you genuinely have no 'what for' objective? Seems you have successfully become a Twitter personality, is that the end goal in itself or do you want it to open some doors for you?
                                                                                                      Gemma 2.0

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        It gives outside power, which is useful in terms of internal dynamics. Mainly, its just an option for potentially something in the future.
                                                                                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          That was a fine budget? If they have a few years of handing out money like that - particularly on improved social benefits - I can't see any opposition having much to argue when it comes to election time. Things like scrapping hospital charges, giving free school books, tend not to cost much, but because people expect them to cost money, they probably generate a decent sense of 'gratitude' and visibility on the tax being spent well.
                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                          Comment



                                                                                                            Help for businesses announced
                                                                                                            The Minister also announced a number of measures to help businesses through the cost-of-living crisis.

                                                                                                            “I am introducing a Temporary Business Energy Support Scheme to assist businesses with their energy cost over the winter months,” Mr Donohoe said.

                                                                                                            “The scheme will be open to businesses that carry on a Case 1 trade, are tax compliant and have experienced a significant increase in their natural gas and electricity costs.

                                                                                                            “It is proposed that the scheme will operate by comparing the average unit price for the relevant bill period in 2022 with the average unit price in the corresponding reference period in 202.

                                                                                                            “If the increase in average unit price is more than 50% then the threshold would be passed and the business would be eligible for support under the scheme. Once eligibility criteria are met the support will be calculated on the basis of 40% of the amount of the increase in the bill amount.

                                                                                                            “A monthly cap of €10,000 per trade will apply and an overall cap will apply on the total amount a business can claim.”


                                                                                                            Case 1 ....that would include most SMEs yes?

                                                                                                            No problem meeting the threshold anyway.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Budget calculator here:

                                                                                                              Read, share and shape the news on TheJournal.ie - Breaking Irish and International News


                                                                                                              Some decent gains...
                                                                                                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Is that going to help you out a fair bit dinekes?
                                                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  The mad thing is that depending on how corporation tax receipts hold up, you could easily see another few years of this type of budget. Particularly with the massive expansion of social provision.
                                                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    The extra €830 cash money is nice enough,
                                                                                                                    because very rarely does the budget do anything else for me.
                                                                                                                    ﴾͡๏̯͡๏﴿

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                      The mad thing is that depending on how corporation tax receipts hold up, you could easily see another few years of this type of budget. Particularly with the massive expansion of social provision.
                                                                                                                      Not very smart to bet the entire farm on the profits of a handful of multinationals (and the income of their high earners) but I guess we went down that road long before now..
                                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                        Is that going to help you out a fair bit dinekes?
                                                                                                                        Business is fucked anyway for now.
                                                                                                                        ​​now. Lost too many customers.
                                                                                                                        So many just leaving it to the last minute the lazy bastards.

                                                                                                                        Will have to reinvent myself...."Budget offer consultant'
                                                                                                                        No clue what I'm going to do. Still have part time job so won't starve ha ha


                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Although our budget looks very slick when you look across the Irish Sea and see fiscal policy and monetary policy frantically working against each other
                                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                          Comment

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