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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
I think you maybe the only person in the entire world to take CCP propaganda at face value."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI would imagine there is some sort of theory out there saying that countries become more dictatorial, right in the run up to becoming more democratic. But I'm not basing this on this months news stories, but rather a general trend that tends to happen.
Historians often say precisely the opposite to you. Charles I was overthrown after a period of democratic growth. The US war of independence followed a period of democratic disenfranchisement which reached a flashpoint because of increased democratic activity in the colonies. The French Revolution was preceded by the return of the Estates General for the first time in nearly 200 years in both 1788 and 1789. Examples go on and on.
Now, all of this could be countered by just going back further until you hit a period of absolutist monarchs or dictatorial regimes. So correlation isn't going to be much use to you here. What appears to be a common denominator in democratic movements is an intellectual boom period beforehand and the emergence of a coherent ideology around which democratic movements form.
Historical precedents are likely worthless here though. Modern technology has dramatically increased the ability of despotic and dictatorial regimes to hold on to power through the surveillance state and modern propaganda tools. The means of taking and holding power are far better understood now than even 100 years ago.
What I think can be said, with some authority, is that the suggestion that it would be "foolish" to think China will not become a democracy is entirely baseless. There is nothing to suggest democracy is an inevitable part of the development of a nation like China. Roughly 55% of the world's population lives in an authoritarian or partially authoritarian state. Democracy is not inevitable. And even when it is implemented most democracies are quite seriously flawed. So the assumption that China is definitely going to become a democracy is entirely baseless. It might happen, but predicting it without reservation - going so far as to rubbish anyone who might not agree with it - seems a bit far.
Sigh, I need to have more time to read these days.Last edited by Kayroo; 20-09-23, 13:53.You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Like most things in my life, I blame the Google search algorithim."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
Most debated topic in political theory, I think.
Historians often say precisely the opposite to you. Charles I was overthrown after a period of democratic growth. The US war of independence followed a period of democratic disenfranchisement which reached a flashpoint because of increased democratic activity in the colonies. The French Revolution was preceded by the return of the Estates General for the first time in nearly 200 years in both 1788 and 1789. Examples go on and on.
Now, all of this could be countered by just going back further until you hit a period of absolutist monarchs or dictatorial regimes. So correlation isn't going to be much use to you here. What appears to be a common denominator in democratic movements is an intellectual boom period beforehand and the emergence of a coherent ideology around which democratic movements form.
Historical precedents are likely worthless here though. Modern technology has dramatically increased the ability of despotic and dictatorial regimes to hold on to power through the surveillance state and modern propaganda tools. The means of taking and holding power are far better understood now than even 100 years ago.
What I think can be said, with some authority, is that the suggestion that it would be "foolish" to think China will not become a democracy is entirely baseless. There is nothing to suggest democracy is an inevitable part of the development of a nation like China. Roughly 55% of the world's population lives in an authoritarian or partially authoritarian state. Democracy is not inevitable. And even when it is implemented most democracies are quite seriously flawed. So the assumption that China is definitely going to become a democracy is entirely baseless. It might happen, but predicting it without reservation - going so far as to rubbish anyone who might not agree with it - seems more an act of a confidence man rather than one of a confident prediction.
Sigh, I need to have more time to read these days.
You would though have to be worried about Xi. And this is the failing of dictatorships, that they're all well and good perhaps, until the wrong person gets in. It was precisely because of how bad Mao became in old age that they had the rule to prevent another Mao happening with too many terms in office."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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The biggest issue the west needs to sort out to be in any way competitive is to work out what to do with our national debts.
US is now spending 15% of government revenue on interest. UK, and a few EU countries are at around 10%.
Given the working forecast at the moment is 3% interest rates for the foreseeable future, these are massive issues.
You already see countries like the UK having to restrict defense spending because of things like interest costs. The US seems content to keep pushing the cost further down the line, but it can't be sustained. Its going to cripple them as a country until they come up with a solution.
I suspect it might need to be something dramatic like a general amnesty for 20-30% of debt per country, all gets wiped off in a few swoops. Or swapping chunks of debt for ownership over certain streams of government income (a debt for equity swap, in essence). Something needs to give though."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
South Korea is culturally very similar, right down to the very same origin of language. Hard to see why it would be culturally different
I guess my answer would be 'because the US transplanted democratic institutions into South Korea (and Japan)'. They didn't just appear organically."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
You mean politically different? Why is South Korea a (checks Economist score) a full democracy with a score of 8.03, whereas China is an authoritarian state with an awful score of 1.94?
I guess my answer would be 'because the US transplanted democratic institutions into South Korea (and Japan)'. They didn't just appear organically."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
ha. The US has attempted to 'transplant' many political systems to many countries and i'm not necessarily sure they have a great success record. The issue isn't the frameworks, the issue is the receptiveness of the people. E.g. I would suggest that there seems to be something culturally acting against democracy as a mode of government in muslim-majority countries. My point is just that based on culture, nothing else, there doesn't seem to be anything culturally acting against democracy in that particular cultural cluster.
And it clearly failed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
So they have a mixed record to be sure. Is it based on underlying sociocultural factors? Don't know."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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But I think you're being super-optimistic to think that China will somehow transition to democracy, just because they have cultural similarities with other countries that are democracies.
(You could then argue that Russia will somehow magically transition to democracy too as it has cultural similarities with European democracies)
Democracy is precious and hard won."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostBut I think you're being super-optimistic to think that China will somehow transition to democracy, just because they have cultural similarities with other countries that are democracies.
(You could then argue that Russia will somehow magically transition to democracy too as it has cultural similarities with European democracies)
Democracy is precious and hard won.
For highly collectivist countries, like China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, in particular as a cultural cluster, its not necessarily obvious. Maybe highly collectivist cultures are fine with trusting one single leader, on the presumption that they will act in the general interest, or end up enduring a single leader, or maybe precisely because they are collectivist, they have an underlying demand for collective decision making.
Don't know enough about it clearly. But I suspect that underlying cultural drive is the key determinant of governing system in the long run."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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In other news, we seem to have started the long-awaited Deansgrange cycle-to-schools route. Its a scheme in DLR, and presumably elsewhere, to make sure there is as much as possible uninterrupted safe cycle routes between the main places that kids live and the schools they go to. Lovely idea in principle. Chaos in practice. Mainly as all the schools opened in the 70s or 80s and now everyone who lives near the schools, who were originally parents, are now old pricks. Cue their outrage that kids today might need to get to the very same schools they sent their kids to.
The particular Deansgrange outrage was around a proposed cycle route through a graveyard - Deansgrange Cemetary. Now, this isn't some little graveyard, it is so big it already has an actual road network inside it, that tends to be quite busy. I've gotten lost in it more than once. The locals managed to become outraged that kids cycling would now take the place of drivers.
It ended up with a glorious own goal by some locals who didn't want the cycle route to go through the cemetery but ended up inadvertently approving their own parking spaces being taken away. Like they've literally nowhere to park as there's no front garden in these cottage-style places. These were public parking spaces, but de facto the parking of the houseowner.
The compromise end result is something of absolute beauty. The cycle route goes past the cemetery, but not into the cemetery (this was the bit the locals didn't realise, that by the cycle route going past the cemetery, it would require taking away their parking, is my understanding). But, the kicker is that it doesn't change anything about what the kids on bikes will actually do - as in, they'll take the route up as far as the cemetery and then go through it as was the original council plan."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
ha. The US has attempted to 'transplant' many political systems to many countries and i'm not necessarily sure they have a great success record. The issue isn't the frameworks, the issue is the receptiveness of the people. E.g. I would suggest that there seems to be something culturally acting against democracy as a mode of government in muslim-majority countries. My point is just that based on culture, nothing else, there doesn't seem to be anything culturally acting against democracy in that particular cultural cluster.
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
Japan and Germany are pretty awesome, knock it out of the park successes. Imagine in 1943 saying to a random Japanese fanatic that in 80 years Japan will be a democracy and one of the US's strongest allies."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Well, it clearly worked in South Korea and Japan.
And it clearly failed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
So they have a mixed record to be sure. Is it based on underlying sociocultural factors? Don't know.
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
I think a large part of it was the nature of what happened, and the length of America's commitment. Japan and Germany were both totally destroyed by their clearly expansionist crazy governments, and after the war they were in such a state they needed help against famine and aggressive neighbours. Iraq and Afghanistan were both functioning (to some extent) before and there wasn't the same commitment on the US's part. You might need to first completely destroy a country before rebuilding it."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
Iraq and Afghanistan were both functioning (to some extent) before and there wasn't the same commitment on the US's part. You might need to first completely destroy a country before rebuilding it."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Lao Lao View Post
WUT?
Citation needed!
The number of annual protests has grown steadily since the early 1990s, from approximately 8,700 "mass group incidents" in 1993[2] to over 87,000 in 2005.[3] In 2006, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated the number of annual mass incidents to exceed 90,000, and Chinese sociology professor Sun Liping estimated 180,000 incidents in 2010.[4][5] Mass incidents are defined broadly as "planned or impromptu gathering that forms because of internal contradictions", and can include public speeches or demonstrations, physical clashes, public airings of grievances, and other group behaviors that are seen as disrupting social stability.[6]
Despite the increase in protests, some scholars have argued that they may not pose an existential threat to CCP rule because they lack "connective tissue";[7] the preponderance of protests in China are aimed at local-level officials, and only a select few dissident movements seek systemic change.[8] In a study conducted by Chinese academic Li Yao, released in 2017, the majority of protests which were non-controversial did not receive much if any negative police action, which is to say police may have been present but in no more capacity than Western police would be attending to a protest/mass gathering event. The idea that Chinese do not protest or would be brutally repressed for any kind of political action does not seem to be supported by existing data.[9] In addition, it was noted at times that the national government uses these protests as a barometer to test local officials' response to the citizens under their care.
Here's The Economist article i read a while ago, that I think is the origin of my shallow knowledge on this point! Why protests are so common in China."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Kayroo View Post
It's not really strange. He's a spoofer. Spoofers use fancy sounding words out of context to sound clever and fool gullible people. It's a pretty old grift frankly. It's basically what English undergrads do to impress the girls in their class.
: characterized by grotesqueness, extravagance, complexity, or flamboyance
a truly baroque act of sabotage—G. N. ShusterGone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Academics seem like gas cunts. So far every one of my lecturers have plugged something they've published as of the utmost importance. 2 of them have gone so far to say that our assignments will be on their stuff exclusively. One is a podcast series interviewing other academics, the other is a big ass book. Both essays are only 2500 words so it's handy but just found it hilarious the way they're so blatant about it.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Whatever about Iraq, Afghanistan was clearly the very definition of a failed state. So not sure the theory is univerally applicable!
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Is your broad argument that the Americans failed in only killing 460,000 Iraqis in a war denounced by most of the rest of the world as illegitimate, and they should have tried to be more destructive and psychopathic?
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
Germany in 1945 was suffering from famine, some people had resorted to cannabalism, millions were homeless and they had the the red army rampaging towards them, you can't really compare than that to Afghanistan circa 2000."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by dobby View PostAcademics seem like gas cunts. So far every one of my lecturers have plugged something they've published as of the utmost importance. 2 of them have gone so far to say that our assignments will be on their stuff exclusively. One is a podcast series interviewing other academics, the other is a big ass book. Both essays are only 2500 words so it's handy but just found it hilarious the way they're so blatant about it.
SPOILERActually it designed the whole Masters in a morning. Every single module with multiple pages of specification. About 60 pages of output. Have designed a fair few masters before and they've always taken weeks or months. They wouldn't have looked as good as this one either, or read as coherently.
The key seems to be to never just go: write me a page on [insert topic], as it just gives general nonsense. Instead its to go something like "I need to write a description for a module aimed at Masters level students in a business school. The core idea of the module is XXX. I want it to touch these three points: [1][2][3]. Please make sure it reads semi-formal and is written in terms of learning outcomes." When you give it that type of detail it is fantastic.
I guess in your case you could freeform with something like:
Step 1 [only using GPT4, GPT3.5 is too weak]: "I want to write an introduction to an essay on XXX. There will also be an literature review and analysis section. This is aimed at a masters level qualification in XXX in Ireland. The overall essay will cover these key points [insert]. With this in mind, write an appropriate 400 word introduction. Please use the below references and the relevant abstracts as sources. [insert references with abstracts as bibtex code, as it can read that and understand the different parts]. When writing the essay please keep in mind the following module learning objectives [insert objectives]. While these objectives don't need to be explicitly addressed in the essay, they should broadly inform your framing of the introduction. Please also see the following text which is written by the course professor to give you a flavour of his style and perspectives [insert snippet of lecturer prior work]. Do not imitate this style, just bear it in mind when framing also."
Step 2 [using GPT4 in a new question tab]: [Copy and paste the produced introduction]: You are a professor in [course area]. You have been presented with an essay by a student on a Masters course. Please read and critically evaluate the following introduction part of their essay which is in response to the following assignment task [insert assignment task]. Your evaluation should focus on: [1] quality of arguments, [2] flow of writing, [3] anything that might give you doubt as to whether this was written by an algorithm not by a student.
"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Decades of war, religious maniacs running the place, no centralised government, food shortages, foreign terrorists using it as their base...yeah, sounds like paradise.
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Is that Norwich Fan Rob?This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
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Originally posted by dobby View PostRob Mercer got a lot of coverage around the WSOP and managed to pull off a pretty huge con but the truth always comes out
good on himWill you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand
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My pluckmograph detected some light activity in France last night but looks like it just it was just a minor pluck display
forecast for todays match- another Mexican cartel video style atrocityWill you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand
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Next RWC journey a mere 24 hours away. Starting point this time is Brussels, with a quick Thalys ride down to Paris on Saturday morning and back Sunday evening.
Looking forward to this one. Last week was party time, this is serious bizness."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
From wiki. With an explanation for why they are accepted also as they act a social barometer. I think the broad idea I read somewhere else is to foster a feeling of local democracy and ability to take action, to distract from the lack of availability of that democratic option at the national level.
Here's The Economist article i read a while ago, that I think is the origin of my shallow knowledge on this point! Why protests are so common in China.
Hmmm, I'd be very skeptical about anything that comes from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Also found this on Wiki - We've no reliable stats on this but they're definetely up!
Within the past few decades, the number of mass incidents occurring in China has seen significant growth, indicated by The Annual Report of China's Rules (2009). In more recent times the numbers have continued to be high yet are less documented making reliable statistics rare, however it is definite that the frequency of mass incidents has increased, making these actions a vital threat to the stability of China.
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Originally posted by Lao Lao View Post
Hmmm, I'd be very skeptical about anything that comes from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Also found this on Wiki - We've no reliable stats on this but they're definetely up!
Its actually quite a smart way of running a dictatorship. As in, if the primary interest of your dictatorship is to not be overthrown, it feels like a better way of going about it compared to complete totalitarianism. To allow people to feel they live in a somewhat democratic local area, so they don't focus on the democratic aspects that they don't have at the national level.
On the potential upside: it allows a society to eventually transition to national democracy if they are habituated to democracy at the local level. This seems to have been the failing of societies like Egypt, where the democratic transition failed due to the lack of habit of democracy.
On the more likely downside: society may grow to view democracy as only being important at the local level, and will not fight from democracy at the national level. So it can act as a distraction from a greater goal."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostNext RWC journey a mere 24 hours away. Starting point this time is Brussels, with a quick Thalys ride down to Paris on Saturday morning and back Sunday evening.
Looking forward to this one. Last week was party time, this is serious bizness.
Biggest danger imo meeting these guys is the risk of injury. i'd be shocked if Sexton comes away from this one unscathed
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostThis will be one of those games where I know the words to both anthems, even the one sung in five languages.
Not much of a contest with Irelands Call vs Nkosi Sikel' iAfrica..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
i really hope you crush them, and then we crush them and then we both meet in the final. that would be just perfect!
Originally posted by shrapnel View PostBiggest danger imo meeting these guys is the risk of injury. i'd be shocked if Sexton comes away from this one unscathed
Just looking forward to a big day and night."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Did you read that commentary about SA keeping too many forwards on their reserve bench to refresh the team later in the match? Irish coach suggesting it wasn't 'fair play'. Is that the general perception?
and who hacked your account?"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I did also link to an economist article saying the exact same thing!
Its actually quite a smart way of running a dictatorship. As in, if the primary interest of your dictatorship is to not be overthrown, it feels like a better way of going about it compared to complete totalitarianism. To allow people to feel they live in a somewhat democratic local area, so they don't focus on the democratic aspects that they don't have at the national level.
On the potential upside: it allows a society to eventually transition to national democracy if they are habituated to democracy at the local level. This seems to have been the failing of societies like Egypt, where the democratic transition failed due to the lack of habit of democracy.
On the more likely downside: society may grow to view democracy as only being important at the local level, and will not fight from democracy at the national level. So it can act as a distraction from a greater goal.
Or the CCP are just boxing clever and eliminating protesters out of view of everyone.
Along with China's hosting of the 2008 Olympic Games the government adopted new strategies to improve their control and management of large crowds. Aiding them in their abilities to quell mass incidents with force. With the rapidly increasing numbers of mass incidents the Chinese government instead adopted a more "permissive strategy of containment and management". This meant that more low-key protests were allowed to take place but under strict police observation to ensure the crowds remained peaceful. It also meant that mass arrests were no longer made and instead authorities were to "gather intelligence, intensify policing and quietly detain protests leaders [once] crowds [had] dispersed".
This improved security was also supported by budget increases, in 1988 public security was only awarded 2% of local budgets, this increased to just over 6% in 2010, according to China's Statistical Yearbook. This new budget aided in the decentralization and augmentation of local police forces and lead to updates within technologies, including advanced surveillance apparatus's in the form of traceable identification cards and public cameras.
This regulation of mass incidents also links to internet policing. With the emergence of the digital age there has been an outbreak of mass incidents occurring online, involving campaigns which rally support for the protests occurring and the activists behind the issue. This has caused governments to restrict internet access, censoring information surrounding these mass incidents. This has been ensured through government control of internet providers, leading to the filtering of information concerning any 'undesirable' content, including information that concerns socialism, undermines government power, incites revolt or disrupts social order.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
they can do whatever they like, we'll just beat off the park regardless
and who hacked your account?
A former assistant to MEP Luke Ming Flanagan has been accused of hacking into the politician's social media account and posting a late-night tweet about environmentalist Saoirse McHugh 'skinny dipping'.
Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
Surely an indispensable academic like Hitch will be able the get an assistant to take the fall for him..........
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Lao Lao View Post
No, we take it handy and lose and then we're in a must win game against Scotland to finish second. Don't see why you'd want to put yourself under that pressure"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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