Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

[Micknail]

'Offset' you say....

I have no idea what that means.

Yeah it will hopefully stop a bulge of clay pushing out your logs in the centre.
What I used for reinforcement was some 50cm length rebar hammered into the soil behind the logs, and then metal staples driven into the wood.

I won't comment on your corner joinery. Although it can be saved.

[DeadParrot]

Yeah it will hopefully stop a bulge of clay pushing out your logs in the centre.
What I used for reinforcement was some 50cm length rebar hammered into the soil behind the logs, and then metal staples driven into the wood.

I won't comment on your corner joinery. Although it can be saved.

a few L brackets around the edges should solve those problems

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Did you not get it delivered?

oh yeah of course. I just meant that they would be busy with all the trade you are pushing their way

[Raoul Duke III]

Yeah it will hopefully stop a bulge of clay pushing out your logs in the centre.
What I used for reinforcement was some 50cm length rebar hammered into the soil behind the logs, and then metal staples driven into the wood.

I won't comment on your corner joinery. Although it can be saved.

It isn't joined yet, they're just sitting on the grass to give me an idea of size

[Raoul Duke III]

Will take abut 1150 litres to fill. Not sure if that's more or less than you were expecting. But will give you an idea of the size you need to buy.

Corner will be stronger is they are layed in alternate directions. To do that the 5th sleeper should have been cut in 500s and 700s. Could do 600s and 400s now.
Off set ome of the rows by half a sleeper as Micknail suggested, Will make the centre stronger.

OIC. Very complicated business this.

I guess I could cut one into 500\700 and mix the two remaining 600s into the top at each end. Then I'd have an overlap at both ends. I think.

[Micknail]

Is this shite?

• There is a 100% allocation on your contributions.
• There will be a government levy of 1% on you contributions.
• There is an Annual Management Charge of 1.35%
• Fund Choice: Prisma Max

[Wombatman]

RDIII doomsday prepping for WW 3. Getting tradesmen in to price up a bunker too I believe.

[ionapaul]

What poker rooms are currently operating in Dublin and environs at the moment? The Sporting Emporium, the Village Card Club (I assume it's back open), anywhere else?

[Denny Crane]

Is this shite?

• There is a 100% allocation on your contributions.
• There will be a government levy of 1% on you contributions.
• There is an Annual Management Charge of 1.35%
• Fund Choice: Prisma Max

There shouldn't be government levy on your contributions?

Management charge is high, but that's common with group pension schemes. Should be able to get Zurich for less than 1%

[Micknail]

There shouldn't be government levy on your contributions?

Management charge is high, but that's common with group pension schemes. Should be able to get Zurich for less than 1%

Oh yeah sorry, not a pension, just investment.

You're gonna tell me investments are shite full stop now right?

[Tar.Aldarion]

Oh yeah sorry, not a pension, just investment.

You're gonna tell me investments are shite full stop now right?

No need to have some actively managed fund. Lump it into VWCE on degiro.

[Micknail]

No need to have some actively managed fund. Lump it into VWCE on degiro.

Yes Ma'am.

[pokerhand]

What poker rooms are currently operating in Dublin and environs at the moment? The Sporting Emporium, the Village Card Club (I assume it's back open), anywhere else?

Think village card club is still closed.

Bonnington has a permanent poker room now. Opens Wed-Sat, getting decent crowd in. Friday is the busiest with 100+ entries.

[Hectorjelly]

It was like watching uncut gems and 1917 combined. Neither of which I'd enjoyed. I had a strong urge to switch it off after 5 mins.

I know what you mean, but I enjoyed the intensity of all of those films. I found uncut gems quite unpleasant because of all the similar characters that dotted the Fitz.

[DeadParrot]

JP's is open as far as I know.

[Lazare]

This lad from 9:30 on is hilarious, have never heard of him..

[dobby]

Think village card club is still closed.

Bonnington has a permanent poker room now. Opens Wed-Sat, getting decent crowd in. Friday is the busiest with 100+ entries.

Village green card club definitely open and crazy busy. Would be my 1st choice over the Bonnington and I've been to both recently

[Raoul Duke III]

I know what you mean, but I enjoyed the intensity of all of those films. I found uncut gems quite unpleasant because of all the similar characters that dotted the Fitz.

I knew I had a reason why I found the Sandler character so familiar. Spot on sir.

[dobby]

What poker rooms are currently operating in Dublin and environs at the moment? The Sporting Emporium, the Village Card Club (I assume it's back open), anywhere else?

If you check out Village Green Card club on Facebook, that's JPs place or Dublin Poker Club on Facebook for the Bonnington card room. Both have their schedules up.

I like JPs, it just seems more comfortable to me or something and the staff are better. Quite decent cash action too compared to the Bonnington where I found it all a bit tight and less action.

Enjoy wherever you end up anyway.

[pokerhand]

Village green card club definitely open and crazy busy. Would be my 1st choice over the Bonnington and I've been to both recently

Well their website is out of date so.

[Hectorjelly]

What poker rooms are currently operating in Dublin and environs at the moment? The Sporting Emporium, the Village Card Club (I assume it's back open), anywhere else?

The Norwegian open starts in a few days

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Is this shite?

• There is a 100% allocation on your contributions.
• There will be a government levy of 1% on you contributions.
• There is an Annual Management Charge of 1.35%
• Fund Choice: Prisma Max

Just on the investment thing. We've taken a pretty extreme approach to both our monthly childcare investment fund, and the wife's pension. Both invested in 50% Asia-Pacific large caps plus 50% emerging market opportunities. Management fees are such a cunt though. My thinking is that Asia is where the next few decades of growth are coming from, plus the wife's income is probably highly dependent on the US continuing to do good. So its a decent hedge and should hopefully lap up all that future growth. Plus shes quite a bit younger, so has more time to steady the ship if things go completely wrong, and I've a stable pension in any case.

[Emmet]

Never in doubt. Last kick of the game for the sweat.

[Lazare]

recipe-image-legacy-id-327529_11-48ab0f7.jpg

Made this for dinner today. The pick is from BBC, as my own version lacked some of the refinement in that pic.

What was notable was how much the simple chicken was elevated with the basic act of dipping it in egg white and then coating it in parmesan. Beautiful.

Chicken parmesan is, I think, a very well known thing, but I've managed to never come across it before. It's very very good. Lovely ratio of minimal effort to top taste.

Hitch, that was top class. Thanks for the recommendation. Added to the rotation. Added a little lemon zest like Ole suggested and it worked great.

[Denny Crane]

Just on the investment thing. We've taken a pretty extreme approach to both our monthly childcare investment fund, and the wife's pension. Both invested in 50% Asia-Pacific large caps plus 50% emerging market opportunities. Management fees are such a cunt though. My thinking is that Asia is where the next few decades of growth are coming from, plus the wife's income is probably highly dependent on the US continuing to do good. So its a decent hedge and should hopefully lap up all that future growth. Plus shes quite a bit younger, so has more time to steady the ship if things go completely wrong, and I've a stable pension in any case.

I dunno I think the US has really demonstrated why it deserves such a premium to the rest of the world.

[dobby]

Well their website is out of date so.

I'll be honest, that's the first time I've heard of a website for his place so I've no idea about it. Just relaying my own recent experience is all.

[dobby]

The Norwegian open starts in a few days

Oh yeah, the Norwegian and Irish Open. A solid 2 weeks of mayhem. Cash action is nuts and great fun, once you hold up lol. It's on in Citywest.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I dunno I think the US has really demonstrated why it deserves such a premium to the rest of the world.

I think they have, up to now. But in a 35 year investment horizon its hard not to see some negatives towards the US, and very strong positives towards the Asian economies, which will all benefit from the rise of China, and eventually the rise of India. Indonesia is going to be a global powerhouse in that timeframe also.

I'm thinking of companies like Shein, that due to better algorithms than the rest of the world, have managed to rise to one of the largest clothing retailers in the world in a few years. Of TikTok, one of the largest social media platforms in the world in a few years. We're going to see so much more of that, as the Chinese algorithms start beating down Western leaders one by one. I'm betting on that algorithmic skill to some extent. Plus the power of the Chinese African commercial relationships, which is going to be another massive growth region over the next few decades.

Thats most of the world's population between Asia and Africa, and I find it hard to see how the US is going to benefit much from growth in either region. Even if they have in the past. Trump showed China that they couldn't rely on US trade relations, and now we've seen from Russia, China learning some of the same lessons - that Western countries will use their monopolies to play politics. So, we're going to increasingly see China-developed services spread across China, and then across Asia and Africa, in opposition to the US-led services and products that are currently the world defaults.

It may be a faulty premise, but I'm not sure it is. The trend is fairly clear.

[eamonhonda]

Staff "task force" in play in the airport, so there'll be a load of additional gobshites hanging around in hi viz that can't make the queue go any quicker, but at least ye will have someone to give out to.

[Hectorjelly]

It may be a faulty premise, but I'm not sure it is. The trend is fairly clear.

The trend is that emerging markets substantially underperform both the S+P or a world index

Also, one of the large problems with that area is political risk - one of your biggest holdings is going to be the Taiwanese semiconductor company. So you're making an implicit bet that China doesn't invade. And many of the stocks will be Chinese, so you are making a bet the CCP doesn't decide to confiscate your stocks, or blow up their own stock market in some fashion. Most of those countries do not have the same respect for the rule of law or property rights that investors enjoy in the US, and there are many idiosyncratic problems, for instance in India it's legally very difficult for foreigners to own stocks.

If you watched the video I sent you you'd have a first-hand account of the problem with investing in China

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SScVuA4nf44

[Denny Crane]

Yeah rule of law, property and intellectual rights vs fx risk, fraud, political risk, invasion risk. You could own Chinese ADRs which could go to zero.

Also when it kicked off in Ukraine Europe sold off far more than the US. It just has such huge huge advantages and stability versus ROI.

[oleras]

@HH..Dara was fantastic tonight, put on a cracker of a show, almost 2.5 hours excluding the 20 min interval.

No warm up, doesn't need it...enjoy !

Oh, he does swear a LOT

Came home to a load of ants in my kitchen ? found them also in the food press...everything that was open fecked out...think i got them all.

I know what my dreams will be fueled by tonight.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

The trend is that emerging markets substantially underperform both the S+P or a world index

Also, one of the large problems with that area is political risk - one of your biggest holdings is going to be the Taiwanese semiconductor company. So you're making an implicit bet that China doesn't invade. And many of the stocks will be Chinese, so you are making a bet the CCP doesn't decide to confiscate your stocks, or blow up their own stock market in some fashion. Most of those countries do not have the same respect for the rule of law or property rights that investors enjoy in the US, and there are many idiosyncratic problems, for instance in India it's legally very difficult for foreigners to own stocks.

If you watched the video I sent you you'd have a first-hand account of the problem with investing in China

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SScVuA4nf44

You are making a classic investment flaw of talking about current knowledge, and history, as if it isn't already priced into stocks.

Historical data suggests that countries transition to democracy after a certain income level. China is already quite democratic at the local level, so it isn't fundamentally 'against' democracy - the CCP sees its benefits, a bit. There's no reason to think they won't also transition to full democracy. Like their neighbours - South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore.

And then imagine the stock market premium?

Investment is about the future, not the past.

Political risk is already priced into Asian stocks due to 'stranger danger' bias by Western investors. I wonder is political risk priced into Western stocks in the same way? We are essentially going to witness, over the next decade, nearly all European + US national debts rising towards 200% of GDP, then some tough decisions having to be made. As we have seen in the US and in Italy, Spain, Greece, is that tough decisions lead to extremist politicians. We face far more political risk, not yet priced in, that Asian stocks. Asian stocks are priced already highly aware of political risk.

[Denny Crane]

There's no reason to think they won't also transition to full democracy. Like their neighbours - South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore.

China with its Confucianism is not going to transition to a liberal democracy in our lifetimes.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Yeah rule of law, property and intellectual rights vs fx risk, fraud, political risk, invasion risk. You could own Chinese ADRs which could go to zero.

Also when it kicked off in Ukraine Europe sold off far more than the US. It just has such huge huge advantages and stability versus ROI.

Surely Europe sold off far more than the US, not because the US was some utopian investment, but because the war was in Europe. If the war was in Mexico, then the US would have sold off more than Europe.

I think you are talking about old things, with items like intellectual rights. Its a bit like the old idea of poor quality Chinese products. Both the lack of quality and the lack of intellectual property rights were big issues, but now China is where you go to produce quality products (hence Chinese made Teslas commanding a premium in Europe compared to US made Teslas), and they are now producing the intellectual property that the world wants to use (hence Instagram, Snapchat all now copying TikTok algorithms). It's the exact same process as with Japan, South Korea, its not a new phenomenon.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

China with its Confucianism is not going to transition to a liberal democracy in our lifetimes.

If you read the bible and assumed that this was a guiding principle for Western societies, you would delve into the bible and wonder how that could lead to democracy either. Not least how it could lead to gender equality in political representation.

Maybe - and this is me just spitting sawdust here - societies are not fully wedded to their 2000-2500 year old philosophies, but can make some sort of evolution over time.

There's a much stronger case can be made that Western society is wedded to its ancient philosophies than that China is. Witness: the churches that exist in every corner of every Western city. Yet we don't use our knowledge of the fact that Westerners are often educated in bible philosophy to say why the West can never be democratic. Despite that being a natural conclusion from having read the anti-democratic philosophy of the bible.

[Micknail]

I mean, I'm not ashamed at all of getting today's heardle in 1 second.

https://www.heardle.app/

[Denny Crane]

Surely Europe sold off far more than the US, not because the US was some utopian investment, but because the war was in Europe. If the war was in Mexico, then the US would have sold off more than Europe

But that's exactly the point. US only faces a benign Mexico and Canadia. It has huge geographical protection. Compare that to Europe or China. China has been in near-constant low-level skirmishes on its borders and has large areas of disputed regions. There's a very good reason Koren stocks trade at a discount to the US.

[Denny Crane]

If you read the bible and assumed that this was a guiding principle for Western societies, you would delve into the bible and wonder how that could lead to democracy either. Not least how it could lead to gender equality in political representation.

Maybe - and this is me just spitting sawdust here - societies are not fully wedded to their 2000-2500 year old philosophies, but can make some sort of evolution over time.

There's a much stronger case can be made that Western society is wedded to its ancient philosophies than that China is. Witness: the churches that exist in every corner of every Western city. Yet we don't use our knowledge of the fact that Westerners are often educated in bible philosophy to say why the West can never be democratic. Despite that being a natural conclusion from having read the anti-democratic philosophy of the bible.

Did you not do a recent course on Chinese history?

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Did you not do a recent course on Chinese history?

Yes. Thats why I'm so well informed. What do you need to know? I'll sort you out.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

But that's exactly the point. US only faces a benign Mexico and Canadia. It has huge geographical protection. Compare that to Europe or China. China has been in near-constant low-level skirmishes on its borders and has large areas of disputed regions. There's a very good reason Koren stocks trade at a discount to the US.

Thats old school political nonsense. Shein doesn't need territory to expand its product and become the biggest clothing retail company in the world. It just needs its algorithm. Sure, geopolitics might impact, but fundamentally, the service is going to win out. Hence, Joe Biden bringing in TikTok influencers recently. The better product near always wins (except Huawei RIP). And thats the stock price benefit. I feel the Chinese algorithm is unstoppable.

[Denny Crane]

Yes. Thats why I'm so well informed. What do you need to know? I'll sort you out.

Did you internalise it? I don't understand how you compare the basis of so much of their decision-making to our empty churches or unread bibles.

[paul8200]

Thats old school political nonsense. Shein doesn't need territory to expand its product and become the biggest clothing retail company in the world. It just needs its algorithm. Sure, geopolitics might impact, but fundamentally, the service is going to win out. Hence, Joe Biden bringing in TikTok influencers recently. The better product near always wins (except Huawei RIP). And thats the stock price benefit. I feel the Chinese algorithm is unstoppable.

Charlie Munger has been displaced at $DCJO the Daily Journal finally at 98. He has a well known Chinese born investor Li Lu that he likes and takes council from. However he bought AliBaba $BABA at 235, 170 odd and 115 and it went to low nineties. He is Warren Buffet's partner. He might be right in time. But there are easier bets out there. Disclosure, I have some $BABA at the lower end. China is too predictable* yet. But there is incredible value there because of that.

[Denny Crane]

Thats old school political nonsense.

I guess so, I mean sure when is the last time geopolitics ever affected anything.

[Hectorjelly]

You are making a classic investment flaw of talking about current knowledge, and history, as if it isn't already priced into stocks.

"Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again."

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/eberem/everything_is_priced_in/

[Lazare]

That's brilliant

[Dice75]

I mean, I'm not ashamed at all of getting today's heardle in 1 second.
https://www.heardle.app/

Virtuoso

[Raoul Duke III]

China with its Confucianism is not going to transition to a liberal democracy in our lifetimes.

It's going in the opposite direction under Xi.

I do have a Chinese colleague called Xi. Took him about 2 years to work out why I greeted him respectfully with 'hello Mr President!' every morning.

[Denny Crane]

I've come across a few instances of people using agnostic when they mean indifferent. Now I'm beginning to wonder if I'm the one that's wrong.

Paging Kayroo.

[Wombatman]

"Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again."

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb..._is_priced_in/

The scale of Putin's recent actions in Ukraine were not priced in!

Mad how big power players like Trump, Putin or even Musk can manipulate world markets at will.

[Solksjaer!]

I've come across a few instances of people using agnostic when they mean indifferent. Now I'm beginning to wonder if I'm the one that's wrong.

Paging Kayroo.

Less mental energy used when indifferent.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

On that note, how many of you are writing in 'no religion' on your census forms?

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

At a basic level, the average analyst is rewarded for being correct in their predictions for the next quarter, the next year. They are literally measured and evaluated in these terms. They have very little incentives to try to price in market directions a few years down the line, let alone a few decades down the line. For that we need some bigger perspective. Obv its very easy to be wrong on this, but generally the biggest indicator of long-term economic direction is demographics (by far) and comparing current economies to how similar economies have developed in the past. To my mind, that points investment returns very clearly towards Asia and Africa.

Extrapolating a mid-level income economy like China, or a low-level income economy like those of Indonesia, India, all across Africa, to them having a higher income in the future (and their companies benefiting accordingly), is not much of a leap. These trends have happened consistently across time. Extrapolating the US to become ever richer, ever more powerful, is something where there aren't many historical trends to support it.

[Lazare]

Agnostic means you effectively believe it's a coin flip as to whether god exists or not.

[6starpool]

On that note, how many of you are writing in 'no religion' on your census forms?

For sure. Last time out my missus couldn't bring her self to do it, but she will be on board the no religion train this time, so that's 4 in our house.

It has moved from the last option to the first option as well, so that's good. Hopefully another decent uptick in it, although most will still tick catholic by rote.

[DeadParrot]

On that note, how many of you are writing in 'no religion' on your census forms?

Jedi.

Like a normal person

[Raoul Duke III]

Decided on the house front that the 'do very little' option is the sensible play. So cheapo new kitchen, new bathroom, new ensuite, new windows, new doors, inset stove, flooring, attic stairs\hatch, insulate attic and a few other jobs but no retrofit and no extension.

Objective being to have the house ready for the new inhabitants by end June.

[Raoul Duke III]

Speaking of which, how is my giant game of jenga looking - Mellor, Micknail ? They are just sitting on each other, no brackets yet or set in the ground but is this a better design with 60cm sitting on top of 70cm on the sides and more offset on top?

20220330_115155_1.jpg

[DeadParrot]

Agnostic means you effectively believe it's a coin flip as to whether god exists or not.

"I'd like to believe there could be magic beings in the sky, but I can't rationally justify it" is my take.
And why not gods, rather than the JC 3?

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Jedi.

Like a normal person

ah don't. you just dilute the overall message of no religion. absolutely offence intended none if indeed you jedi are.