GP managed to scare the (negative, as I knew they would be) results from the HSE. I doubt we'll ever officially get the results the way we were meant to though. Ah well. At least the demon can go to school tomorrow.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
I'm going to put up a long-ish post here explaining my rationale for why I think Biden is such a great price at the current odds. This is more for my own benefit but please feel free to rip me a new one where my thinking is fuzzy or just plain wrong. Or feel free to suggest a wager.
My position is based on two primary factors - data and politics.
Data:- There is a huge gap between what the polls say and what the betting market says. The polls have consistently given Biden a 7-8 point+ national lead and (crucially) a consistent lead in most of the battleground states. Trump has not gotten a bounce anywhere in the electoral cycle - these numbers are locked in and it is very hard to see Trump turning them around in the volume that he requires.
- Polling methodology...."but the polls were wrong in 2016." Yes they were - but the pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016 and are, if anything, likely to be overweighting the Trump vote. The 2018 mid-terms used new methodology and were consistently correct. I believe we'll see the same in the Presidential election.
- Popularity. Trump has a very high net unfavourable rating. Consistently more than 10%. You cannot win a Presidential election with those numbers.
- The most reputable predictive sites are 538 and The Economist\YouGov. 538 has consistently being putting Biden at ~75%. The Economist\YouGov have Biden at over 80% for months now.
Now onto:
Politics:- As I've said repeatedly, there is a massive difference between 2016 and 2020; 2016 was a referendum on Clinton. 2020 is a referendum on Trump. Trump cannot win a referendum on himself - he is a uniquely divisive figure who is even now doubling down on that divisiveness at a point when he should be trying to pivot to the centre and pull in some of the (few) undecided voters.
- Trump is trapped in a negative news cycle - covid, the economy, bad-mouthing the military, Woodward tapes etc. He is stuck playing defence and is doing it so ineptly that it almost looks like he is trying to sabotage his own campaign.
- Trump is no longer an unknown, exciting quantity - the American electorate know him well now and they don't like what they see. See point 3 in the Data section.
- Biden is not Hilary Clinton. She was just a terrible candidate who managed to demotivate her own supporters to such an extent that she depressed her own turnout. She also had a whiff of scandal about her that the Trump campaign exploited to the max. Biden by contrast has no real skeletons for Trump to seize on.
- There is no signficant third party candidate this time. Last time, third party candidates took ~5% of the vote and this (the Green candidate especially) was key to Trump narrowly winning states like PA, MI and WI.
- The Dems have a significant fundraising advantage.
- There will be significantly higher youth and minority voting this time, this heavily favours Biden.
Overall, I think this is a crazy market and have taken a big position at average odds of ~1.87. I'll continue to add to it while the betting markets remain stable.
I'm also looking at a few bets on the Biden margin of victory, which I expect to be large and potentially >150 EC votes as the Trump negative momentum grows.
Polls holding steady although the Ginsburg\SC nomination impact hasn't yet filtered through - nobody seems too sure what the impact is there.
Biden ahead in PA, MI, NV, MN, AZ, WI
Trump has narrow leads in GA, TX
FL and NC are tossups
Fivethirtyeight have Biden at 77% (1.3)
The Economist\YouGov have Biden at 86% (1.16)
You can back him at 5/6 or 1.83. Go figure.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Loathe breakfast rolls with a terrible loathing, rashers always either undercooked or have transparent fat. You need a nice grilled crispy rasher.
Triple decker toasted bread with crispy grilled rashers, 1 runny egg, few thin slices of tomato grilled or fried just a bit, little bit of black pudding but not enough to overpower and a few thin slices of grilled/fried mushroom. NO sausages.
Remember to keep sandwich on a horizontal plane when scoffing.
Big mug of tea.
Luxury.
Follow with plain slice of white rolled around grilled sausage with ketchup.
More tea.
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Just throwing this out there in case anyone knows someone looking for a start...
We’re mad busy and have just won another very good client. I’m therefore looking to hire a grad to become an investment analyst and in time an investment consultant on my small team.
Starting ASAP and on boarding physically in Dublin and then working remotely after the first few months. Must be willing to work with a team of cranky bollixes juggling various demanding projects and timelines and be hungry to learn. Support for CFA exams provided.
I’d love to add a bit of diversity to my team so a coloured, trans candidate would be great but most important that they are hungry as fuck to learn, are able to speak and present themselves well, and are not idiots.
PM me if you know of anybody.‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan
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Up and out early this morning for a swim followed by some delish toasties in Mugs in Dalkey. The water was lovely
SPOILER
Then home for a shower and a change before hitting up Howth for a hike round the head followed by a 99 and a stroll along the pier.
SPOILER
There are definetely worse ways to spend a Monday!
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Originally posted by shrapnel View PostLol Bitter much? Is he the Kevin keegan of the rugby world?
https://rugby365.com/tournaments/eur...cens-stand-forTurning millions into thousands
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
He's not wrong
And that they lose to Exeter in the final."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Watching ( well hearing about) Irish rugby flat track bullies get put down with extreme prejudice always brings a smile to my face
lovely section on second captains the other day on how utterly fucked professional rugby is due to pandemic, IRFU better not come with cap in hand looking for any off my hard earned , I’ll run for office on a single issue ticket to ensure they don’t get a cent
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Second captains missing out on cash by not offering a more expensive version of pods with all rugby stuff cut out, I’d pay, I resent the 20 seconds or so it takes to skip the rigger stuff every tome
like you will often be able to detect some humanity in the inter county GAA drones but the you won’t get it from the drones spouting rugger corporate newspeak
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Can confirm, all three of us have the same thing, runny noses, some sneezing and a very light cough. Going on for weeks now since the little lad went back to creche. During the full lockdown his nose, which had been constantly runny since starting creche 12 months previously, fully dried up. Those little people just infect the hell out of each other!
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Originally posted by PSV58 View PostWatching ( well hearing about) Irish rugby flat track bullies get put down with extreme prejudice always brings a smile to my face
lovely section on second captains the other day on how utterly fucked professional rugby is due to pandemic, IRFU better not come with cap in hand looking for any off my hard earned , I’ll run for office on a single issue ticket to ensure they don’t get a centNo beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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The Toulon guy Bouldjellal was the epitome of 'local guy putting his self-made money into his local club to build it up'. In very few other sports would he be perceived so poorly.
Seemed a passionate character as well, loved his rant against a referee."I had my first referee sodomy against Clermont in the semi-finals in 2010.I've just had my second tonight. It's supposed to hurt the first time but it hurts again this time. The images ought to be on YouPorn instead of YouTube".
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Checking in at E -6weeks.
Polls holding steady although the Ginsburg\SC nomination impact hasn't yet filtered through - nobody seems too sure what the impact is there.
Biden ahead in PA, MI, NV, MN, AZ, WI
Trump has narrow leads in GA, TX
FL and NC are tossups
Fivethirtyeight have Biden at 77% (1.3)
The Economist\YouGov have Biden at 86% (1.16)
You can back him at 5/6 or 1.83. Go figure.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostFirst day in the office today and my task of the day (thank you taxpayers) was to get all the furniture except the chair and desk removed. I have no idea why people keep storage furniture in their offices - its like telling future you to store crap that you will never look at. I stumbled a bit though as I had to describe this in the request form. Its one of those standard things with the shelves inside. Is it a cupboard? A cupboard struck me as a name for a more permanent thing, primarily for storing food.
BKuDAY2l.jpg
No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Originally posted by thechamp87 View Post
Is there a scenario where Trump doesn’t accept the result or somehow gets in the way of it and ‘wins’ as a result? Is that feasible or who would overrule him in that case? Is that any cause for concern for your bet or is it a reason the markets are out of sync with the data?
I don't know why the markets and the polling are so diverged. I will offer an amateur opinion here; people love to gamble on populist wins especially post Trump I and Brexit, most gamblers are men (most Trump supporters are men), most gamblers are poorly educated (most Trump supporters are poorly educated), Trump supporters refuse to accept newsflow from outside the bubble.
Oy maybe the market is right, who knows...we'll find out on Nov 4th. I'm confident in my opinion and analysis."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by thechamp87 View Post
Is there a scenario where Trump doesn’t accept the result or somehow gets in the way of it and ‘wins’ as a result? Is that feasible or who would overrule him in that case? Is that any cause for concern for your bet or is it a reason the markets are out of sync with the data?
Perhaps there is some built in hesitation to accept the poll numbers in light of the result last time out and the external forces that have shown influence in the past.
I recall the only major publication in the US that predicted Trump last time out was the LA times.
Combine that with the predictions around Brexit too, I can understand the hesitation in trusting polling.
FWIW, I'd tend to agree with RD3 that Biden simply must be value based on the numbers.
My thought process months ago was pick the candidate who polled the best against Trump in the H2H which always was Biden. He isn't the candidate I'd have chosen but he was always the one with the highest probability of beating Trump.
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Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
He's not wrong
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Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
He's not wrong but he sounds like a whiney bitch. Leinster have it pretty good tbf. no salary cap, loads of players under IRFU contracts, and huge strength in depth with the first team only required for a handful of games during the season, and winning at a canter with the 2nd string players. no wonder you've won so many European Cups. There will always be clubs trying to buy their way to Cups, but hearing former Leinster players crying when they lose to a team with a better game plan is pretty petty imo.
Leinster develop pretty much all their own players, they develop so many that the other provinces benefit from this too. They are an absolute model of sustainable rugby development.
Saracens are a bunch of cheating pricks.
Hope that clears that up."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Solksjaer! View PostLike I said . The likes of PSV a turkey voting for Christmas
The culchies needs Dublin
https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2020...arney-tourism/
thst article is active a very clever bit of free advertising by Killarney tourism, cute out
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Tony Ward was a Munster player.
Leinster develop pretty much all their own players, they develop so many that the other provinces benefit from this too. They are an absolute model of sustainable rugby development.
Saracens are a bunch of cheating pricks.
Hope that clears that up.
I'm not knocking the system, it's a good one, but it's also a very privileged one thanks to the IRFU.
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Originally posted by shrapnel View Post
first line of the article: Former Ireland and Leinster flyhalf Tony Ward
I'm not knocking the system, it's a good one, but it's also a very privileged one thanks to the IRFU.
He was most famous for this though:
318221_2_articleinline_ie-473428_8d67fb8d2b254173a970bbe371d87fba.jpg"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
The only realistic scenario where that causes a concern is where it comes down to a handful of votes in one state. Like Florida 2000. In any case, the bets are settled on projected EC results (i.e. the statewide counts) so Trump can whinge all he wants from that perspective.
I don't know why the markets and the polling are so diverged. I will offer an amateur opinion here; people love to gamble on populist wins especially post Trump I and Brexit, most gamblers are men (most Trump supporters are men), most gamblers are poorly educated (most Trump supporters are poorly educated), Trump supporters refuse to accept newsflow from outside the bubble.
Oy maybe the market is right, who knows...we'll find out on Nov 4th. I'm confident in my opinion and analysis.
Trump supporters refuse to accept newsflow from outside the bubble.
Last edited by Denny Crane; 22-09-20, 08:43.
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
I believe the polls were indicating a similar edge for Biden prior to the idea of Trump refusing to accept the result being a possibility.
Perhaps there is some built in hesitation to accept the poll numbers in light of the result last time out and the external forces that have shown influence in the past.
I recall the only major publication in the US that predicted Trump last time out was the LA times.
Combine that with the predictions around Brexit too, I can understand the hesitation in trusting polling.
FWIW, I'd tend to agree with RD3 that Biden simply must be value based on the numbers.
My thought process months ago was pick the candidate who polled the best against Trump in the H2H which always was Biden. He isn't the candidate I'd have chosen but he was always the one with the highest probability of beating Trump.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostFor an Irish person to say that about a US election is kinda Our understanding and view of US politics is so massively skewed. Irish people would probably vote 95%+ blue, and all our media and day to day intake is aligned with that.
I was attempting to explain why the polling predictive odds differ so widely from the betting odds. That was one of the factors I thought might be in play i.e. that Trump supporters are willing to back him at evens when the predictive models indicate he's a 3/1+ shot"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
Welcome back
For an Irish person to say that about a US election is kinda Our understanding and view of US politics is so massively skewed. Irish people would probably vote 95%+ blue, and all our media and day to day intake is aligned with that.
I think that's very true, our perception of the US as a state of constant juxtaposition is very much a media driven image.
That said, my own personal experience of young Trump voters(sample size of 2, though highly educated) is that they are a little unwilling to consider "outside" sources.
The two people I'm referring to, one of whom I'm quite friendly with simply swears by WSJ. It was a genuine battle to get them to admit that The Economist was a reliable source.
Obviously worse sources than WSJ but I was a little surprised tbh especially given they openly admitted to Trump not being their first choice but better than a Democrat.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
touchy, touchy
I was attempting to explain why the polling predictive odds differ so widely from the betting odds. That was one of the factors I thought might be in play i.e. that Trump supporters are willing to back him at evens when the predictive models indicate he's a 3/1+ shot
It's kinda hard to judge who an error might benefit too. Democrats are more likely to vote by mail in general but how many votes will be lost by people not using the second envelope etc? Or will it lead to a massive spike in Democrat support in tight races where previously the lack of ability to reach polling places by low-wage workers of ethnic backgrounds means the turnout is higher than expected in Democrat demographic groups?
It adds some extra spice here.You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
I believe the polls were indicating a similar edge for Biden prior to the idea of Trump refusing to accept the result being a possibility.
Perhaps there is some built in hesitation to accept the poll numbers in light of the result last time out and the external forces that have shown influence in the past.
I recall the only major publication in the US that predicted Trump last time out was the LA times.
Combine that with the predictions around Brexit too, I can understand the hesitation in trusting polling.
FWIW, I'd tend to agree with RD3 that Biden simply must be value based on the numbers.
My thought process months ago was pick the candidate who polled the best against Trump in the H2H which always was Biden. He isn't the candidate I'd have chosen but he was always the one with the highest probability of beating Trump.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Here's my state of play as of today. I've included the 538 State probabilities, the RCP polling spreads and the Betfair odds.- My locks haven't changed and nobody is seriously suggesting yet that any of them might be in play for the presidential election. (Although some interesting Senatorial races). Biden has 217 EC votes locked down, Trump has 126.
- I've given Biden all the in-play states where his 538 status is >75%.
- I've given Trump Texas and Iowa (even though he doesn't meet the 538 75% threshold) because they're, you know, Texas and Iowa.
- Biden exceeds the 270 to win target already on this basis AND is in the lead in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina.
- Trump needs to win all the above 4 states AND Georgia (89 EC votes up for grabs). AND he needs to flip probably Pennsylvania or two of WI, MN, MI, NV
- It's a far bigger ask for Trump. I'd rather be backing Biden's easier path at 5/6 than Trumps' much harder one at 11/10 and I think the betting market is still nuts.
EC votes 538 Status RCP Average Betfair Trump Betfair Biden Trump Biden Lock 343 2.26 1.83 126 217 Arizona 11 Lean Biden (68) Biden +5 2.54 1.57 Florida 29 Lean Biden (60) Biden + 1.6 1.91 2.01 Georgia 16 Lean Trump (63) Trump +1.3 1.46 2.5 Iowa 6 Lean Trump (66) Trump + 1.7 1.41 3.1 6 Michigan 16 Lean Biden (88) Biden + 4.8 3.35 1.38 16 Minnesota 10 Lean Biden (88) Biden +10.2 3.6 1.31 10 Nevada 6 Lean Biden (81) Biden + 6 3.45 1.3 6 North Carolina 15 Lean Biden (54) Biden + 0.9 1.78 2.12 Ohio 18 Lean Trump (55) Biden +2.4 1.45 2.96 Pennsylvania 20 Lean Biden (75) Biden +4 2.48 1.54 20 Texas 38 Lean Trump (68) Trump +2.3 1.31 3.9 38 Wisconsin 10 Lean Biden (79) Biden +6.7 3 1.47 10 195 170 279
here are the locks:
Locked in Trump Locked in Biden Alabama 9 California 55 Alaska 3 Colorado 9 Arkansas 6 Conneticut 7 Idaho 4 Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Hawaii 4 Kansas 6 Illinois 20 Kentucky 8 Maine 4 Louisiana 8 Maryland 10 Mississippi 6 Massachusetts 11 Missouri 10 New Hampshire 4 Montana 3 New Jersey 14 Nebraska 5 New Mexico 5 North Dakota 3 New York 29 Oklahoma 7 Oregon 7 South Carolina 9 Rhode Island 4 South Dakota 3 Vermont 3 Tennessee 11 Virginia 13 Utah 6 Washington 12 West Virginia 5 Washington DC 3 Wyoming 3 126 217 "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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this is worrying thoughPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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One number that doesn't get talked about enough is the daily covid stats.
If the election takes place in the context of a proper second (or third) wave, that's deadly for Trump.
52,000 new cases yesterday in the US, the highest number since 14-Aug....watch it closely."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post
It doesn't look too intimidating, just a bunch of idiots with flags, which youd expect from their type?
If left unchecked it WILL have an impact.
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
52,000 new cases yesterday in the US, the highest number since 14-Aug....watch it closely.
Edit: yeah NYT says 55k for yesterday. Seems to be a wild variation depending on where you get them.Last edited by ComradeCollie; 22-09-20, 11:06.Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Originally posted by ComradeCollie View Post
Do you get your fake numbers from somewhere, or just make them up yourself? I have 36k for yesterday, 52k on Sept 4th, 51.4k on Sept 18th.
Edit: yeah NYT says 55k for yesterday. Seems to be a wild variation depending on where you get them.
52.07k cases yesterday according to them."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Trump doesn't need 270 to win, he just needs to prevent Biden getting to 270. Quite how much this quirk this should influence the market is hard to know - probably <1% in reality.
The concept was referenced here yesterday in a tweet by Seth Abhramson (sp).
In effect the idea is he gets say Florida and maybe one other declared 'void' for voting irregularities (and just to be fair and magnanimous he can do the same for a few he has won) , the final result might be 260 Biden, 180 Trump. Trump wins on the floor on that.
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Yeah from the NYT themselves. You have to click through to a seperate article to see that https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...#anomaly-notes
Sept. 21: Officials in Texas reported thousands of undated, backlogged cases, causing a spike in the state and national data.Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Originally posted by Lazare View Post
Great to see you back, I genuinely worried you were browners at one point.
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Nice to have a billionaire pay off your debts so you can vote."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostFirst day in the office today and my task of the day (thank you taxpayers) was to get all the furniture except the chair and desk removed. I have no idea why people keep storage furniture in their offices - its like telling future you to store crap that you will never look at. I stumbled a bit though as I had to describe this in the request form. Its one of those standard things with the shelves inside. Is it a cupboard? A cupboard struck me as a name for a more permanent thing, primarily for storing food.
BKuDAY2l.jpg
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View PostTrump doesn't need 270 to win, he just needs to prevent Biden getting to 270. Quite how much this quirk this should influence the market is hard to know - probably <1% in reality.
The concept was referenced here yesterday in a tweet by Seth Abhramson (sp).
In effect the idea is he gets say Florida and maybe one other declared 'void' for voting irregularities (and just to be fair and magnanimous he can do the same for a few he has won) , the final result might be 260 Biden, 180 Trump. Trump wins on the floor on that.airport, lol
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
The last two elections were mispriced wouldn't be a shocker if this one was too.
For an Irish person to say that about a US election is kinda Our understanding and view of US politics is so massively skewed. Irish people would probably vote 95%+ blue, and all our media and day to day intake is aligned with that.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI've said it before, but I'll say it again, there's just a bit too much searching for confirmatory reasons why we might be right on Biden, rather than checking if we could be wrong. If its just a static bet and you won't top up again that's fine, but the proper strategy is to search for reasons why you might be wrong and see if those reasons have any merit."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I was thinking of putting some more on next payday next week as due to weird circumstances there's a few different paychecks all arriving at the same time. Its just getting to be quite a lot now hence my moments of self-doubt.
you'll be winning, bigly"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Solksjaer! View Post
That’s such a 2014 viewpoint. It’s 2020, A LARGE majority or us have multiple news sources including social media and both blue and red have ready access to both without censorship. Tbh, before Trump I wasn’t too fussed who became POTUS , I was neither blue nor red nor did I care very much. Trump has redefined what a RED is now in my view. The fact that this poisonous human being is being supported by a huge self serving manipulative rabble is enough for me to think Blue and the reason for this isn’t anything offered up by a democrat , it’s the car-crash being played out daily . It’s like reality is now satire. I should enjoy it but it’s too scary what this guy is capable. The fact that he is bragging about his new big boy weapons should really worry us all.
Most people here can't really fathom ever voting for Trump, and yet 40%+ of the people in the US are gonna vote for him. And I don't think people spend much (any?) time trying to understand that disconnect. The simple thing is to do an SP and just presume they're all racist (just ignore that the first black president beat a rich white guy by 10m votes) or idiots. Think that's just a lazy cop out.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
I don't think our interpretation of what's happening fits reality though. People were calling Biden a slam dunk at much shorter prices, I can't recall anyone expecting Trump to have gone favourite.
Most people here can't really fathom ever voting for Trump, and yet 40%+ of the people in the US are gonna vote for him. And I don't think people spend much (any?) time trying to understand that disconnect. The simple thing is to do an SP and just presume they're all racist (just ignore that the first black president beat a rich white guy by 10m votes) or idiots. Think that's just a lazy cop out."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
I'm looking at the betting market only. Would you have a lump on at 11/10?"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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