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Originally posted by DeadParrot View Posthttps://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...tion-1.4397093
Here's you angle Hitch. Make a much more palatable narrative than the one you were trying.
NAGP Chairman Dr Andy Jordan insisted: “It is now three weeks since the announcement of the new [GP] contract and to date there is no sign of any contract or contractual document. Until we see the contract document it is impossible to advise members.
Just read the WhatApps messages. The lads know they being naughty by having a copy of the document.Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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The polls open for physical voting in the US in just over 24 hours.
538 have the race at 89-10-1
The Economist has it at 95-5
YouGov has Biden winning 364-174
Still no movement in the betting markets which continue to be Biden ~1.5 and Trump ~2.9...."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostThe polls open for physical voting in the US in just over 24 hours.
538 have the race at 89-10-1
The Economist has it at 95-5
YouGov has Biden winning 364-174
Still no movement in the betting markets which continue to be Biden ~1.5 and Trump ~2.9....
I'm a little more bullish on a very resounding win for Biden.
Apparently Republicans are resigned to a loss now and saying that they want the loss to be huge.
They believe an emphatic defeat will allow a "Republican Renaissance" but a close defeat will simply perpetuate the polarisation.
A clean death so to speak.
Originally posted by shrapnel View PostFinished watching the queen's gambit yesterday. Cracking mini series on netflix which manages to make watching chess really exciting. obviously not just that but the chess scenes and the main actress are brilliant.
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Originally posted by shrapnel View PostFinished watching the queen's gambit yesterday. Cracking mini series on netflix which manages to make watching chess really exciting. obviously not just that but the chess scenes and the main actress are brilliant.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostThe polls open for physical voting in the US in just over 24 hours.
Still no movement in the betting markets which continue to be Biden ~1.5 and Trump ~2.9....
Place it at the window instead. The guy behind the windows double checks that I meant Biden.
"Yes, correct. Biden"
"Just checking, as so far, everyone else has been going Trump"
""
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Originally posted by Mellor View Post
Biden eeked out to 1.58 in the TAB. So I bit the bullet. Filled my boots. Machine duely lets be know the price will change to 1.57
Place it at the window instead. The guy behind the windows double checks that I meant Biden.
"Yes, correct. Biden"
"Just checking, as so far, everyone else has been going Trump"
""
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Murdrum View Post
8/1 about for that.
I'm a little more bullish on a very resounding win for Biden.
Apparently Republicans are resigned to a loss now and saying that they want the loss to be huge.
They believe an emphatic defeat will allow a "Republican Renaissance" but a close defeat will simply perpetuate the polarisation.
A clean death so to speak.
Started it yesterday, really enjoyed the first couple of episodes. Apparently all the moves accurate, Kasparov and another chess master advised on it.
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Originally posted by RichieM View Post
I wonder is that a return to where they were placed pre-trump, pre-tea party or a move further towards the middle - well the US version of the middle at least."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Prediction
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
you're getting caught up in the minutae. was the contract, if implemented, going to help you and yours or harm you and yours? it was clearly intended to help expand access to free healthcare, so why are you seeing something wrong with Leo going out on a limb to help you?
Why are you ignoring the point that the information wasn't used to help get buy in from the NAGP?
40% of GPs to be encompassed by the agreement weren't in a union. Where was their copy published?Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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I used American Truck Simulator to try and predict the US election -- https://www.wired.co.uk/article/us-e...ruck-simulator
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Originally posted by shrapnel View PostFinished watching the queen's gambit yesterday. Cracking mini series on netflix which manages to make watching chess really exciting. obviously not just that but the chess scenes and the main actress are brilliant."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by RichieM View Post
I wonder is that a return to where they were placed pre-trump, pre-tea party or a move further towards the middle - well the US version of the middle at least.
You expect regressive tax cuts by a Republican President so you can't really complain when they deliver there. The issue for Republcan donors is that Trump didn't really deliver that much in relative terms.
I read something like his tax cuts will result in a revenue gain of 150bn -0.7% of GDP- over 10 years while George W's was 1.5% and Reagan was 2.6%.
Now he has done serious harm to renewable energy sector -which will please donors, something like 30% of his deregulation measures were made in fossil fuels so probably a mammoth task to rein that back in.
I think that the idea of a Republican Renaissance that moves them to something more centrist is possible. The Democrats made big changes in their philosophy, hard to think of a more fitting time for a shift than Trump/Covid.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
is that the biggest ever bet on BF, full stop?
The only events I can think of outside of Brexit and US election 2016 would be maybe a Wimbledon Final or a Superbowl.
If I recall correctly, I think both of them are in and around the 100m mark.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostAnyone any insights/advice good or bad on sticking a flat roof extension on back of house (30sqm)Jayzus, Sheila! I forgot me feckin' trousers
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Looking to get a clock for the bedroom that is illuminated/viewable instead of reaching for my phone in the middle of the night to check the time, opinions/options? Stayed in a hotel on a poker trip and there was a clock like THIS in the room which was perfect for the clock viewing but I don't need something as fancy as it for music etc.Last edited by tylerdurden94; 02-11-20, 16:28."you raise, i kill you" El Tren :{)
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Originally posted by Dice75 View PostAnyone any insights/advice good or bad on sticking a flat roof extension on back of house (30sqm)
I wouldn't worry about flat roof, they are a different deal now than a few years ago.sigpic
Longshotvalue.com
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I use one of these, very nice! https://ie-lumie.glopalstore.com/col...wake-up-lights
Though sounds like any aul clock will do ya
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Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
Just got it. 8.5. Was 11. A bit skewed because I only renewed handicap last year, after letting it lapse ,and only have 9 counting scores. I think they take average of top three scores in my case.
At least I can say I played off single figures at one time in my life .Last edited by Wombatman; 02-11-20, 18:20.Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
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Originally posted by Lao Lao View PostAnybody any good recommendations for picking up a cheapish bike, preferably in a B&M shop
I'm just looking for something as a run around, not looking to compete in the Tour De France and it will be housed out doors so was hoping to pick something up for around 100-200 quid mark?
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Originally posted by Wombatman View Post
Handicap completely different now. 7.3 showing today. Only home scores counting and only very back tees counting. Updated with recent scores. What's going on?
They have changed the way caps are calc’d in most countries to bring them all in line? Did that just happen at home?
Was the course/a course you play on re rated?
Did you get any PCC on your recent scores?This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
The wisdom of crowds.
If Trump if the market action is that lobsided, the line moves.
Reminds me of the McGregor v Mayweather betting line.
Originally posted by Keane View Post
Between this and mellor's story I'm finding it very hard not to double my stake
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
I'm going to put up a long-ish post here explaining my rationale for why I think Biden is such a great price at the current odds. This is more for my own benefit but please feel free to rip me a new one where my thinking is fuzzy or just plain wrong. Or feel free to suggest a wager.
My position is based on two primary factors - data and politics.
Data:- There is a huge gap between what the polls say and what the betting market says. The polls have consistently given Biden a 7-8 point+ national lead and (crucially) a consistent lead in most of the battleground states. Trump has not gotten a bounce anywhere in the electoral cycle - these numbers are locked in and it is very hard to see Trump turning them around in the volume that he requires.
- Polling methodology...."but the polls were wrong in 2016." Yes they were - but the pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016 and are, if anything, likely to be overweighting the Trump vote. The 2018 mid-terms used new methodology and were consistently correct. I believe we'll see the same in the Presidential election.
- Popularity. Trump has a very high net unfavourable rating. Consistently more than 10%. You cannot win a Presidential election with those numbers.
- The most reputable predictive sites are 538 and The Economist\YouGov. 538 has consistently being putting Biden at ~75%. The Economist\YouGov have Biden at over 80% for months now.
Now onto:
Politics:- As I've said repeatedly, there is a massive difference between 2016 and 2020; 2016 was a referendum on Clinton. 2020 is a referendum on Trump. Trump cannot win a referendum on himself - he is a uniquely divisive figure who is even now doubling down on that divisiveness at a point when he should be trying to pivot to the centre and pull in some of the (few) undecided voters.
- Trump is trapped in a negative news cycle - covid, the economy, bad-mouthing the military, Woodward tapes etc. He is stuck playing defence and is doing it so ineptly that it almost looks like he is trying to sabotage his own campaign.
- Trump is no longer an unknown, exciting quantity - the American electorate know him well now and they don't like what they see. See point 3 in the Data section.
- Biden is not Hilary Clinton. She was just a terrible candidate who managed to demotivate her own supporters to such an extent that she depressed her own turnout. She also had a whiff of scandal about her that the Trump campaign exploited to the max. Biden by contrast has no real skeletons for Trump to seize on.
- There is no signficant third party candidate this time. Last time, third party candidates took ~5% of the vote and this (the Green candidate especially) was key to Trump narrowly winning states like PA, MI and WI.
- The Dems have a significant fundraising advantage.
- There will be significantly higher youth and minority voting this time, this heavily favours Biden.
Overall, I think this is a crazy market and have taken a big position at average odds of ~1.87. I'll continue to add to it while the betting markets remain stable.
I'm also looking at a few bets on the Biden margin of victory, which I expect to be large and potentially >150 EC votes as the Trump negative momentum grows.
My only real fear is that Hitch came to the same conclusion."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by GimmeabreakEither the models are wrong or the markets are wrong. As somebody said the fact that 1.5 is available in the most traded market in the history of the XE is probably enough reason not to back him when the models are suggesting he should be 1.15 or w/e. I am not suggesting Biden won't win. I am just wondering if the 1.5 is the gift it's made out to be.
Any thoughts on this?"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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The polls weren't really that wrong last time, they got the winner wrong in only 2 states and only another 3 were outside the margin of error of 3%. I think this year more people need to go from Biden to Trump. In 2016, hit was the undecideds that mattered more, a lot more people say they are decided. Polling at 51-47 seems amazingly better than polling at 43-39 like clinton. I know nothing about betting so can't really tell you anything about it apart from my view is that it is based on public perception for elections rather than actual polls etc, so why would it be as accurate as normal? I can definitely see that a betting market should call the winner of something well but would put elections at the bottom of the reliability list.Last edited by Tar.Aldarion; 02-11-20, 23:47.
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Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View PostThe polls weren't really that wrong last time, they got the winner wrong in only 2 states and only another 3 were outside the margin of error of 3%. I think this year more people need to go from Biden to Trump. In 2016, hit was the undecideds that mattered more, a lot more people say they are decided. Polling at 51-47 seems amazingly better than polling at 43-39 like clinton. I know nothing about betting so can't really tell you anything about it apart from my view is that it is based on public perception for elections rather than actual polls etc, so why would it be as accurate as normal? I can definitely see that a betting market should call the winner of something well but would put elections at the bottom of the reliability list.
Like for instance in the last market, He was (Thanks Ole) 5.0 going into Election day despite as you point out him being far more statistically unlikely this time and priced at 3.0 which doesn't make much sense. Why isn't the smart money flooding in to take this price on the other side? I guess one could argue the market is just so big. I don't know the size of the BF market now but it was £200m a few days back when I read it was breaking records, What is that likely to be as a % of the world market, 10%? Takes a huge amount of money to move a market that size.
Edit - Wrong side of the odds.Last edited by Opr; 03-11-20, 00:37.
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Originally posted by Opr View Post
Because normally the sharp money will pull a market into line. So if lots of dumb money exists in a market then people who know better will bet that line until it reflects the actual data.
Like for instance in the last market, I think Trump was 1.25 going into Election day despite as you point out him being far more statically unlikely this time and priced at 1.5 which doesn't make much sense. Why isn't the smart money flooding in to take this price down? I guess one could argue the market is just so big. I don't know the size of the BF market now but it was £200m a few days back when I read it was breaking records, What is that likely to be as a % of the world market, 10%? Takes a huge amount of money to move a market that size.
Screenshot_20201103-002439.pngLast edited by oleras; 03-11-20, 00:26.This too shall pass.
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I know Hitch previously mentioned institutional money hedging and GAB regarding sentiment from smart money aligning markets but I'm not sure how much smart money exists here.
I think there are far more recreational gamblers who are getting involved here that would never place a bet.
Also, I understand that it's the largest market in BF history but it's not 10-20x the largest non political market, it's 3-4x.
It's a market that remains online longer than any other so it has more time to gather momentum/volume from recreational punters.
I just think it sits in a weird space where there isn't smart money in the traditional sports betting sense where insider info/more advanced models etc exist.
What's the smart money/institutional investors working off, 538 and The Economist models? I suspect if truly smart money/institutional investors existed where they had invested in accumulating additional info, there are more lucrative, liquid markets to invest in than simply the winner of the election.
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