Bad Beat/Moaning/Venting - pray for Lazare

[Raoul Duke III]

Being dead when it matures is a bit of a drawback alright...

You could say the same about a lot of Celtic Tiger 35 year mortgages

[horatio1]

Chanel bbvd, off to Amsterdam Monday. Can't find passport. Now has to get train to galway to see is it in her room up there which she reckons isn't as the two lads that are staying in house are up there and just kicked in her bedroom door to look for it for her and no sign of it. :eek:

I reckon no Amsterdam for her Monday
She thinks it's as simple as, ah mam run me up to passport office there and I'll just get a new one. Like fuck I will! Lesson learned hopefully.

Passport found, room trashed. She's happy though.

The two lads obviously didn't get much further than the underwear drawer. Ah college life.

[mdoug]

The last one in the quiz was

SPOILER

post punk

[darwinatemyhamster]

Was going through Mia's phone yesterday and came across a lovely domestic with the next door neighbour. Its brill lol aged 10 and 11 . There are only 3 kids that live here and every so often it kicks off

SPOILER

I'm all for going through a 10 year olds phone(I do it myself) but posting it here isn't fair on her, putting it mildly.

[NewApproach]

You could say the same about a lot of Celtic Tiger 35 year mortgages

Or a benefit

[Strewelpeter]

Pictorial Weekly is fairly good, for an RTE production.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Lord Sir Banter]

<3 trump

[SatNav]

I'm all for going through a 10 year olds phone(I do it myself) but posting it here isn't fair on her, putting it mildly.

Ah its only banter, a little argument. Nothing major. I just thought it was funny, no swearing all the little stars for swearing and mia so adult like with her answers.

[Lord Sir Banter]

In 1997 the FT ran a competition. Entrants had to guess a number between 0 and 100, and the person whose guess came closest to two-thirds of the average guess won a rather fancy prize.

Whats your guess in this scenario?

Answer below in spoilers, so don't quote as you'll see the spoiler. Interested more in your thought process, and you can be happy in the fore-knowledge that my guess was predictably wrong.

SPOILER

The give it a go guess: 33. Average guess would seem like it should be 50 the mid-point, and 33 is two thirds of 50.

Wrong!

SPOILER

The Nash guess: 0. Participants will realise that 33 will be the right answer so will think to maybe go for that, and 2/3rds of 33 is 22, but then they'll keep on extrapolating this pattern down and down to the Nash equilibrium which says the best guess should be 0.

Wrong!

SPOILER

Actually the answer was an average guess of 18.91 and the winning 2/3rds answer was therefore 13.

While the first answer of 33 was just plain dumb - who would realistically guess above 50?, the second Nash answer was dumb in a different way - it assumed that every single person who entered the competition, or nearly every single person, would be familiar with the Nash equilibrium and follow it through to its logical end. That there's no possibility for anyone to just have a guess for the fun of it, as seemingly loads of people did. And the question wasn't what should the answer be in the perfect world, but rather what will the answer be.

It was a behavioural finance guy who came up with the competition to highlight the extremeness of traditional economics. Don't feel too smart with your Beautiful Mind thinking now do you? Me neither.

went with

SPOILER

26

pretty happy

[Lord Sir Banter]

Ah its only banter, a little argument. Nothing major. I just thought it was funny, no swearing all the little stars for swearing and mia so adult like with her answers.

gave me a lol. pwned them with the moral high ground. I'm enjoying my holidays, lol. A class act.

[RichieM]

The last one in the quiz was

SPOILER

post punk

What were the burbon and the kids book?

[mdoug]

What were the burbon and the kids book?

SPOILER

Flower Fairies and Knob Creek

[oleras]

My camera arrived today. Haven't a clue really what i am doing, using the auto settings until i gain some confidence.

First is the original, next is some small adjustments in lightroom which i am trying to get my head around, never used photoshop or any editing suites before, and then a cropped version.

DSC_0069 by oleras, on Flickr

DSC_0069-Edit-Edit-2 by oleras, on Flickr

DSC_0069-Edit-Edit-2 by oleras, on Flickr

Amazed at the quality, well, compared to a camera phone.

DSC_0038-Edit-Edit-2 by oleras, on Flickr

[darwinatemyhamster]

Ah its only banter, a little argument. Nothing major. I just thought it was funny, no swearing all the little stars for swearing and mia so adult like with her answers.

Ah I know the conversation is harmless, I'm just questioning sharing her private conversations on a public forum.

To be blunt I think that's an awful breach of your daughter's privacy. I'm not having a go, I'm simply highlighting the point I was originally attempting to make after reading your response.

[underthegun01]

Last 2 tournaments;

1a. Pocket A pre flop (100/200), raise from small blind to 600, 2 callers, flop comes J 10 5 different suits, check, player 1 raises 2000, player 2 all in, I call, player 1 folds, player 2 calls with KJo, turn comes muck and river comes K.

1b. AKo pre flop on the button (300/600-25), same 2 players play a raise and call, I go all in and end up in a showdown with 65o and I lose to a pair of 5s

2. JJ from UTG, (300/600) so I raise to 2400 and get 4 callers, I figure I'm up against a lot of powerful hands (A,K,Q) and maybe a midrange suited connector, I decide that if no higher card than a J comes up and there is no obvious draw I am going to shove because I don't want to give them the chance of connecting on the turn and river, cards come up 2 4 6 different suits and I shove, I get called by the small blind who was last to call pre flop and he setted 2s, how do you call 2,400 with deuces when 4 players are in before you!

[Lord Sir Banter]

http://www.newslinq.com/bridal-buddy/

[SatNav]

Ah I know the conversation is harmless, I'm just questioning sharing her private conversations on a public forum.

To be blunt I think that's an awful breach of your daughter's privacy. I'm not having a go, I'm simply highlighting the point I was originally attempting to make after reading your response.

Be grand, thanks for the concern

[6starpool]

Last 2 tournaments;

1a. Pocket A pre flop (100/200), raise from small blind to 600, 2 callers, flop comes J 10 5 different suits, check, player 1 raises 2000, player 2 all in, I call, player 1 folds, player 2 calls with KJo, turn comes muck and river comes K.

1b. AKo pre flop on the button (300/600-25), same 2 players play a raise and call, I go all in and end up in a showdown with 65o and I lose to a pair of 5s

2. JJ from UTG, (300/600) so I raise to 2400 and get 4 callers, I figure I'm up against a lot of powerful hands (A,K,Q) and maybe a midrange suited connector, I decide that if no higher card than a J comes up and there is no obvious draw I am going to shove because I don't want to give them the chance of connecting on the turn and river, cards come up 2 4 6 different suits and I shove, I get called by the small blind who was last to call pre flop and he setted 2s, how do you call 2,400 with deuces when 4 players are in before you!

1. Unlucky, not a bad beat.
2. Somewhat questionable play by the 56o guy, he is still about 35% or better to win vs AKo.
3. He would be stupid not to call from sb when only bb still to act with 22, the pot odds and especially with implied odds. Paid off well for him.

Then again it's years since I've played poker.

[Lord Sir Banter]

Last 2 tournaments;

1a. Pocket A pre flop (100/200), raise from small blind to 600, 2 callers, flop comes J 10 5 different suits, check, player 1 raises 2000, player 2 all in, I call, player 1 folds, player 2 calls with KJo, turn comes muck and river comes K.

1b. AKo pre flop on the button (300/600-25), same 2 players play a raise and call, I go all in and end up in a showdown with 65o and I lose to a pair of 5s

2. JJ from UTG, (300/600) so I raise to 2400 and get 4 callers, I figure I'm up against a lot of powerful hands (A,K,Q) and maybe a midrange suited connector, I decide that if no higher card than a J comes up and there is no obvious draw I am going to shove because I don't want to give them the chance of connecting on the turn and river, cards come up 2 4 6 different suits and I shove, I get called by the small blind who was last to call pre flop and he setted 2s, how do you call 2,400 with deuces when 4 players are in before you!

What are you top 3 teas of all time?

[Lord Sir Banter]

Ah I know the conversation is harmless, I'm just questioning sharing her private conversations on a public forum.

To be blunt I think that's an awful breach of your daughter's privacy. I'm not having a go, I'm simply highlighting the point I was originally attempting to make after reading your response.

Thanks m8. I'm enjoying myself on my (easter) holidays at the moment. We can talk about this when I'm back but I don't really have the time for discussing childish things.
goodbye

[CHDad]

Obviously you haven't heard of early doors poker m8

[mdoug]

Mcgregor vs Diaz and Aldo vs Frankie for interim title too ufc 200 should be good

[CHDad]

Ah I know the conversation is harmless, I'm just questioning sharing her private conversations on a public forum.

To be blunt I think that's an awful breach of your daughter's privacy. I'm not having a go, I'm simply highlighting the point I was originally attempting to make after reading your response.

Tbf to Darwin hes had previous. Phones and kids are a touchy subject.

[Lord Sir Banter]

interim title is a thing now

[horatio1]

Last 2 tournaments;

1a. Pocket A pre flop (100/200), raise from small blind to 600, 2 callers, flop comes J 10 5 different suits, check, player 1 raises 2000, player 2 all in, I call, player 1 folds, player 2 calls with KJo, turn comes muck and river comes K.

1b. AKo pre flop on the button (300/600-25), same 2 players play a raise and call, I go all in and end up in a showdown with 65o and I lose to a pair of 5s

2. JJ from UTG, (300/600) so I raise to 2400 and get 4 callers, I figure I'm up against a lot of powerful hands (A,K,Q) and maybe a midrange suited connector, I decide that if no higher card than a J comes up and there is no obvious draw I am going to shove because I don't want to give them the chance of connecting on the turn and river, cards come up 2 4 6 different suits and I shove, I get called by the small blind who was last to call pre flop and he setted 2s, how do you call 2,400 with deuces when 4 players are in before you!

3. " priced in" ," Valoooo" , " be rude not to", " big blind surely comes along" but mostly

SPOILER

Pocket twos never lose

[TheDrunkenOne]

How much will €100 be worth in 100yrs @ 2.35% anyhow
Gave up calculating in head after 12 yrs...
Would be good for a surprise in a family time capsule passed down.
Got me wondering what else I would put in it as well?

[CHDad]

This mma news is baffling.

UFC must be looking to keep numbers huge so they can sell high.

McGregor v whoever wins the interim will still be big if he doesn't land 3 clean in a row against Diaz ftw AND he still keeps the it was 170lbs excuse.

Could type so many more words but meh, I'll still be glued to it so fuck it.

[Lplated]

In 1997 the FT ran a competition. Entrants had to guess a number between 0 and 100, and the person whose guess came closest to two-thirds of the average guess won a rather fancy prize.

Whats your guess in this scenario?

Answer below in spoilers, so don't quote as you'll see the spoiler. Interested more in your thought process, and you can be happy in the fore-knowledge that my guess was predictably ...

Saw that cited in "Super forecasting" , book by Gardner and Tetlock.
Did you read it? What did you think if so?

[gorrrr72]

Watched the first 6 episodes of Making a Murderer today, great stuff but I can't figure out

SPOILER

why Fassbender has no eyebrows

, and if you close your eyes when Avery's lawyer is talking he sounds exactly like Slippin' Jimmy, maybe that's why I'm rooting for him.

[CHDad]

[Lord Sir Banter]

This mma news is baffling.

UFC must be looking to keep numbers huge so they can sell high.

McGregor v whoever wins the interim will still be big if he doesn't land 3 clean in a row against Diaz ftw AND he still keeps the it was 170lbs excuse.

Could type so many more words but meh, I'll still be glued to it so fuck it.

He is 0/1 m8. Are you in denial?

[CHDad]

He is 0/1 m8. Are you in denial?

The only thing I am when it comes to McGregor is impossible to wind up m8

I have more hope for you upping your game for 200 than Our Conor.

[mdoug]

[Lord Sir Banter]

The only thing I am when it comes to McGregor is impossible to wind up m8

I have more hope for you upping your game for 200 than Our Conor.

Are we having a pound, or double or quits on that pint you lost at sheep.
Two pints and a packet of crisps or quits.
The crisps are the vig.

[Mellor]

How much will €100 be worth in 100yrs @ 2.35% anyhow
Gave up calculating in head after 12 yrs...
Would be good for a surprise in a family time capsule passed down.
Got me wondering what else I would put in it as well?

€100 x (1.0235)^100 = €1,020.43

Due to inflation, €1020 in 2116 will be worth about €20 in today's terms. They might get a round of drinks out of it

[Mellor]

Watched the first 6 episodes of Making a Murderer today, great stuff but I can't figure out

SPOILER

why Fassbender has no eyebrows

, and if you close your eyes when Avery's lawyer is talking he sounds exactly like Slippin' Jimmy, maybe that's why I'm rooting for him.

Started watching it myself this week too. Also on episode 6.

SPOILER

I find myself getting a little frustrated at questions that Avery defense don't ask in court. For example, the forensic anthropologist highlighted gunshot wounds on the skull. But they should have asked if it could have occurred postmortem.

[Mellor]

This mma news is baffling.

UFC must be looking to keep numbers huge so they can sell high.

I doubt they are selling, they are releasing equity at best. High numbers at one event out of 40 this year won't drastically effect there valuation. Billion dollar investor are so easily led.

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[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Raoul Duke III]

If you like an auld flutter
Or even a bit of a punt
Join the Aintree Tipping Comp
And don't be a silly person

[Emmet]

Not happy about McGregor, should be fighting Edgar for the belt imo

Win that and Aldo gets another shot.
Lose it and become a normal guy taking fights when they come up.
Beats Diaz fights Edgar/Aldo then what?
Loses to Diaz and he fights winner of Edgar/Aldo then what?

--

Also, Germany actually seriously gender segregating trains. Mental.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/german-rail-operator-mitteldeutsche-regiobahn-women-only-train-carriages-cologne-sex-attacks-a6957446.html

(Posting the least Daily-Mail reference available)
Good fuel for Sickpuppy!

[Emmet]

Also, how is he supposed to beat Diaz? Diaz's chin took some of McGregor's best and he didn't get rocked nearly as bad as Conor did before he was choked out.

Lot of mehhhhh about it, just go back and beat Edgar and start the train again imo.

This article captures a lot - http://www.rte.ie/sport/mma/2016/033...-diaz-rematch/

[LuckyLloyd]

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/news/burton-rejects-call-to-step-down-at-turbulent-meeting-34586479.html

Sounds like good gas - her not announcing intentions to resign by now are, what...delusional?

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[V for Vendetta]

You get €2.35% each year, and then just the €100 back at the end. Essentially that €100 is worth €0 due to the amount of time it is in the future, so you're really just buying the interest stream.

But if interest was just being added rather than paid out it would be worth €1,034 in 100 years!

The nominal value in 100 years time. The real value is an entirely different matter. The real value is they will come in a packet of cornflakes as a collectable.


Look at this genius quote from the IT this morning referring to the residential property market

Prices rose modestly outside the capital last month with the annual rate of growth rising to a 11.5 per cent, the strongest rate of growth since May 2007.

Double digit growth on what should be a low volatility asset class in a low return environment is modest!

It's this kind of property group think craziness which will kill the recovery here as people can't afford to live near where they have to for work and economic productivity doesn't fulfill it's potential as a result.

Residential property price rises should be no more than 5%p.a. for the foreseeable future and the advertising selling cheerleaders need to be called out on their shilling bullshit.

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[LuckyLloyd]

Money!! Plus it's a huge challenge also to beat Diaz at 170

[Emmet]

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...-34586479.html

Sounds like good gas - her not announcing intentions to resign by now are, what...delusional?

Ah she's going to resign, but they need to see what's going on around them before committing to a new leader I'd guess. Could easily be another election in the next 8 weeks!

O'Riordain missing his seat cost Labour both a TD and a potentially non-toxic leader imo.

Enjoyed this

Mr Kelly's role was also criticised, with one source saying "there wasn't much warmth or love in the room" for either him or Ms Burton.

[LuckyLloyd]

I'm 32 so the prospect of buying / settling beginning to permeate to the front of my brain (I rent a nice place in a good area for a very reasonable rate but). Conversations with friends on the topic are grim. When a bunch of well paid professionals are concluding that Dublin is probably too expensive and an ultimate bad investment then we have a problem. There has to be some serious financial drool involved with many of those taking out mortgages over the past 12 months.

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[Mellor]

semi-annual compounding innit

TheDrunkenOne just said 2.35%. So Went with annual for simplicity.
Most savings accounts are probably paying out monthly. Which adds maybe €30

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[Dice75]

I see the Healy Rae's are after taking a house beside me here. There goes the quiet life....

[V for Vendetta]

I'm 32 so the prospect of buying / settling beginning to permeate to the front of my brain (I rent a nice place in a good area for a very reasonable rate but). Conversations with friends on the topic are grim. When a bunch of well paid professionals are concluding that Dublin is probably too expensive and an ultimate bad investment then we have a problem. There has to be some serious financial drool involved with many of those taking out mortgages over the past 12 months.

Try being 37 with a kid and very patient wife!

An abnormally large part of the market over the last few years have been "cash" buyers which gives a very false impression. The impact of the Central Bank actually doing the right thing will take longer to feed through as a result but a combination of some populist government interference to the supply side and discipline by the Central Bank will hopefully have a decent effect over the next 2-3 years.

People are paying high rents but at least they have a job to justify that. I don't think young professionals are as willing to commit themselves to crazy mortgages given recent history. Although I have seen one or two acquaintances do some crazy things.

I just hope that the populist government nonsense doesn't stray too far into feeding the demand side by "gifting" people money. I don't mind something like the tax-free growth deposit accounts etc but doing anything with VAT etc would just be retarded and self defeating imo.

Here's hoping the simplistic grand coalition we end up with in the next few weeks results in less ability to meddle with stuff for about 3 years and instead just waffle and window dressing and let a bit of sanity emerge...

[Mellor]

Its the height of pedanticism on my part - just that gov bonds pay out semi-annually.

Government bonds? Wait, what are we talking about?
I thought it was just a random late night hypothetical from DrunkenOne?

[Guest]

I'm 32 so the prospect of buying / settling beginning to permeate to the front of my brain (I rent a nice place in a good area for a very reasonable rate but). Conversations with friends on the topic are grim. When a bunch of well paid professionals are concluding that Dublin is probably too expensive and an ultimate bad investment then we have a problem. There has to be some serious financial drool involved with many of those taking out mortgages over the past 12 months.

I reckon there is going to be a lot of intergenerational strife in the coming years as more people realise they are not going to basically win the lotto (sorry work harder and smarter) like their parents generation did art to pay,work conditions and benefits. Expectingore articles about how old people with mortgages should downsize to a tent to give
young families a chance

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[Mellor]

I'm 32 so the prospect of buying / settling beginning to permeate to the front of my brain (I rent a nice place in a good area for a very reasonable rate but). Conversations with friends on the topic are grim. When a bunch of well paid professionals are concluding that Dublin is probably too expensive and an ultimate bad investment then we have a problem. There has to be some serious financial drool involved with many of those taking out mortgages over the past 12 months.

This is very much my issue at the moment. Started saving almost two years ago with a view to buying. Decided with wanted to stay in our current area. Also figured it would be one a desirable area on a few years when they complete a light rail (Luas ) connection. Uncovered an issue mid last year, that took months to sort. And the market has exploded in the interim.

A lot if it is fueled by gung ho Chinese buyers paying way over the odds. Which is making it near impossible for anyone with a concept of value. One example, seen a 1 bed + study (had a fold down bed) for for $200k over the guide price at auction, $920k. madness

[Mickey Rosa]

Down 39lbs in the last number of months, finally getting back to some sort of fitness