Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - It's the end of the world as we know it

[Solksjaer!]

I predict everyone will turn away from it, and hopefully start buying very old mechanical watches.

Oh this is the type of thing that will trigger the terminators . Fk you Zuthorpe you've doomed us all.

[Degag]

2 episodes into the new Clarkson's farm and it's quality as usual. Supposed to get emotional in some way some time shortly though.

[MysteryGuest]

ah thought you did. your company is definitely planning to integrate widespread AI, they just haven't told you yet. unless its a small company.

I’ve no doubt they are - with a view to kicking me and thousands of others to the scrapheap- I just think other threats will do for them/me 1st

[Raoul Duke III]

This is a decent high-level newsletter on banking AI, although maybe you already have enough crappy newsletters in your work inbox, and indeed are probably well ahead of the curve on this: https://evidentinsights.com/ - was recommended to me by a banker who felt he needed to be able to throw out the odd AI term at the odd meeting. I guess though you are talking about 'traditional' AI for quant prediction?

I got to the ranking section of that and nearly fell off my chair.
Let's just say that people may talk an AI game that is very far ahead of the current reality.

[ComradeCollie]

I predict everyone will turn away from it, and hopefully start buying very old mechanical watches.

I love this guys repair videos of old stuff. See myself doing some of this badly, with no proper oscilloscopes

[Raoul Duke III]

Switching from Homo love to Cuntly devotion this week for the USPGA this week.

40/1. Trust the system.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Already mentioned this before: In the face of jobs in one space (admin heavy jobs) closing down, then governments will have to enable vast amounts of jobs in a new space.

That will have to be jobs in areas where people interact with people, as the value of 'people' is a key property.

The most obvious example of this is the leisure industry.

So, then the question is - how do you create huge amounts of jobs in the leisure industry?

You do that by giving people, in general, more leisure time.

This whole thing paves the way to things like the 4-day workweek, and eventually the 3-day workweek, as thats the only way to create a dramatic increase in demand for leisure activities. (for context - add up how much you spent over the recent bank holiday weekend, compared to last weekend: it will have been approximately 50% more over the bank holiday weekend, literally linear).


You can approach this by thinking - oh that won't happen, the government will just let people become mass unemployed. But every example of a major crisis in our history has led to governments stepping in - most recently with covid when a huge chunk of the population become temporarily unemployed and were taken care of. Governments do take action when they need to. This will probably start as a new EU working time directive, reducing the max hours that any individual person can work. That way, it will be a continental action and have less of a business impact.

We should be cheering that an AI can do loads of jobs as its part of a move towards an inevitably better future.



.

[zuutroy]

One of the things I remember from a brief visit to Japan a good while ago is how many people were doing utterly pointless service jobs.

[Solksjaer!]

I’ve no doubt they are - with a view to kicking me and thousands of others to the scrapheap- I just think other threats will do for them/me 1st

I think you'll live , its the worry that get you if anything.

What age wouple people sign off on if offered an expiry date. I'd take mid 80s, it looks grim after those yrars buy would be great to get there .

[ionapaul]

If the EU mandates 4 day weeks or limits max working hours, but other parts of the world remain as-is, surely there will be an acceleration of the economic growth mismatch between the EU and the rest as FDI dries up and companies prefer to employ elsewhere?

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

If the EU mandates 4 day weeks or limits max working hours, but other parts of the world remain as-is, surely there will be an acceleration of the economic growth mismatch between the EU and the rest as FDI dries up and companies prefer to employ elsewhere?

What will the rest of the world do in their 5 day work weeks - there will be no work?! - Its to generate work that we would be making the change. Those countries will have the exact same problem.

But in general, we would expect the developed world to follow, and really all jobs could already flow to the much cheaper developing world, but they don't because very few high skilled people want to work in those countries. If it happens at a continent level, you'd have sufficient control over companies that could and couldn't sell within EU, and those using exploitative labour (i.e. 5-day work week) could be banned or fined. Plus, the new leisure jobs can't flow anywhere as they need to be where the people are.

[Solksjaer!]

If the EU mandates 4 day weeks or limits max working hours, but other parts of the world remain as-is, surely there will be an acceleration of the economic growth mismatch between the EU and the rest as FDI dries up and companies prefer to employ elsewhere?

Depends., i do a 4 day week due to parental. Im expected to perform as the person on 5 days workloadwise. So far no problem. My personal view from experience is that 5 day productivity in far from optimal in virtually every job i've been in. The Office Rickie Gervais wasn't as off the wall as ya think . so much farting around .

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

plus france has had 4.5 day work weeks for ages and are more productive than countries with 5 day work weeks over the whole year. a lot less illness, stress, more concentration when in the office.

[MysteryGuest]

All on board with working less hours but just look at the bollocksology from a lot of big companies with work from home- yanked it ASAP for fairly spurious reasons (didn’t bother me I didn’t really bother with it)
they’d keep the 5 day work week just out of spite

[Micknail]

Not even in the top 5 things I’m worried about

1. Yellowstone

[Lazare]

Hitch, can you give a few examples of these new leisure jobs, you're not just talking about expanded hospitality type jobs I assume.

Will there be referees at all the tables in the local snooker hall?

[Lazare]

1. Yellowstone

She's due

[Lazare]

The government could replace all of the country's golf flags with skinny lads that used to work in finance. Cheap too, only in the hole for four days a week.

[Strewelpeter]

AI won't have arrived until is can generate content that is as engaging and that carries the personality of the people behind a thread like this.

Great content today, a little oasis n a world of shitty social media.

[Denny Crane]

Claude now available in Europe.

I never bothered trying to get around the restriction. Is it still the best model?

[ComradeCollie]

Quite the boycott that leads to almost a doubling of the viewership from last year

Last Saturday’s final brought in a whopping average audience of 666,000 - up 304,000 on 2023's final - on RTÉ One with 19,000 watching on RTÉ One +1.

I'm sure Bambie will take some consolation in it being the number of the beast https://www.irishmirror.ie/showbiz/i...gures-32801793

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Hitch, can you give a few examples of these new leisure jobs, you're not just talking about expanded hospitality type jobs I assume.

Will there be referees at all the tables in the local snooker hall?

No idea. But if people are spending 50% more on their leisure time, then companies will find a way to take that money from them. If enough people want personal snooker referees then so be it! Might I be so bold as to suggest a PottingTweaks app with associated coaching jobs.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Quite the boycott that leads to almost a doubling of the viewership from last year



I'm sure Bambie will take some consolation in it being the number of the beast https://www.irishmirror.ie/showbiz/i...gures-32801793

Viewership is down on the last time we qualified for the final.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Claude now available in Europe.

I never bothered trying to get around the restriction. Is it still the best model?

I wouldn't bother tbh, unless the longer context is specifically worth the €25. Have had the model for a while now and find myself only reluctantly using it. GPT4o is a much better model.

[ionapaul]

I am just not sure about all these extra jobs for humans appearing (AIs, sure); I think the ideal end goal for human society is UBI, which will only be possible if governments manage to massively tax the eventual winners of the AI revolution (the likes of Sam Altman and Microsoft and so on), which may be easier said than done as the aforementioned billionaires lobby ferociously to keep tax at current levels and go to great lengths to greedily retain all of the benefits that widespread implementation of AI bring. I can confidently state that those business owners I know who are introducing AI are doing so to increase company profitability and their own bank balances, and won't be releasing a penny back to the wider public unless they are very reluctantly made to do so!

I fall halfway between Hitch's 'the wonderful future is just around the corner!' and MysteryGuest's 'the nightmarish dystopia is here, as I always expected' world views; I am at my heart an optimist though

[6starpool]

I can't wait for Hitch's idyllic society where AI does all the work, and the rest of us are given money to enjoy our life for no reason. Governments will spend more, despite there being far less tax, and people will still work in the service industry to make coffees, food, take away bins and so on, just for the love of the work. It'll be great!

[Raoul Duke III]

I can't wait for Hitch's idyllic society where AI does all the work, and the rest of us are given money to enjoy our life for no reason. Governments will spend more, despite there being far less tax, and people will still work in the service industry to make coffees, food, take away bins and so on, just for the love of the work. It'll be great!

Myself and Zuut will realise our long-cherished dream and open up an AI-free coffee shop. No Wifi. Cash only.

He'll do the C, I'll do the GTFO.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I can't wait for Hitch's idyllic society where AI does all the work, and the rest of us are given money to enjoy our life for no reason. Governments will spend more, despite there being far less tax, and people will still work in the service industry to make coffees, food, take away bins and so on, just for the love of the work. It'll be great!

Why would governments spend more? The cost of everything will plummet.

The idea of a four day work week is that you get the same pay for four days as you would normally get for five days.

But in general the cost of everything in society, even physical work due to robotics, is going to plummet down to the cost of compute, so there's even space for wages to fall while still keeping the same standard of living.


We really need to see that OpenAI, or someone else, is actually capable of a GPT5 level model, though as there is doubt out there whether its possible. But then all of this is inevitable. If GPT5 is possible (think of GPT5 as the smartest person on the planet), then GPT6 is possible (think of GPT6 as having capabilities beyond any human), then human endeavours will switch to things we like doing rather than things we want to do.

This is one of the most important moments in history.

[Lazare]

Quite the boycott that leads to almost a doubling of the viewership from last year



I'm sure Bambie will take some consolation in it being the number of the beast https://www.irishmirror.ie/showbiz/i...gures-32801793

Crazy to think that approx 0.2% of that figure voting for Israel was enough to get them second place.

[6starpool]

Why would governments spend more? The cost of everything will plummet.

The idea of a four day work week is that you get the same pay for four days as you would normally get for five days.

But in general the cost of everything in society, even physical work due to robotics, is going to plummet down to the cost of compute, so there's even space for wages to fall while still keeping the same standard of living.


We really need to see that OpenAI, or someone else, is actually capable of a GPT5 level model, though as there is doubt out there whether its possible. But then all of this is inevitable. If GPT5 is possible (think of GPT5 as the smartest person on the planet), then GPT6 is possible (think of GPT6 as having capabilities beyond any human), then human endeavours will switch to things we like doing rather than things we want to do.

This is one of the most important moments in history.

Yes, the cost of infrastructure will plummet for sure, healthcare companies are known to be benevolent and charitable, so will definitely pass on any savings. We'll all have easy access to star trek style replicators for food and every day items, and medical handheld devices will be ubiquitous within 10 years where all ailments can be easily cured at no cost, carried out by cheerful doctors.

[MysteryGuest]

We will be a nation of full time surf instructors, poets and hikers, won’t it be wonderful.
cmon man
billionaires ain’t sharing the spoils- the cruelty is the point.
far more likely that the elite cut the rest loose once they are no longer needed

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

would it help if i said the conductor_robot might let you pretend you are driving the train.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

This book is coming out in a few weeks to answer all your questions.


deep-utopia-poolside.jpg

[MysteryGuest]

This book is coming out in a few weeks to answer all your questions.


deep-utopia-poolside.jpg

Man the hubris of that sub title - going to buy this to absolutely tilt myself on holiday this summer

[Degag]

No idea. But if people are spending 50% more on their leisure time, then companies will find a way to take that money from them. If enough people want personal snooker referees then so be it! Might I be so bold as to suggest a PottingTweaks app with associated coaching jobs.

Think this says it all. Idealistic fantasist notions but nothing to back it up really.

[Raoul Duke III]

If Hitch sells his company for zillions, then I might start listening.

[zuutroy]

Myself and Zuut will realise our long-cherished dream and open up an AI-free coffee shop. No Wifi. Cash only.

He'll do the C, I'll do the GTFO.

And watches...or whatever subject I am obsessing about at the time.

[6starpool]

If Hitch sells his company for zillions, then I might start listening.

He'd be worse than Musk.

[Dice75]

I can't wait for Hitch's idyllic society where AI does all the work, and the rest of us are given money to enjoy our life for no reason. Governments will spend more, despite there being far less tax, and people will still work in the service industry to make coffees, food, take away bins and so on, just for the love of the work. It'll be great!

Train driver dream may be up in smoke though...

Edit - i see HH way ahead of the curve as usual

[Lazare]

Sounds like this AI revolution is more suited to a collectivist society.

Communist utopia finally realised.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Man the hubris of that sub title - going to buy this to absolutely tilt myself on holiday this summer

I suspect this guy has zero hubris. He's a prof of philosophy in Oxford whose previous book is the bible of AI safety.

[6starpool]

Train driver dream may be up in smoke though...

Edit - i see HH way ahead of the curve as usual

Train driver was seen as more appealing than a job in financial services (most jobs are, tbh, although the lower rate of pay the major blocker really). The dream is to never have to work and have enough money to do so and have plenty. If I could get a job cleaning toilets for similar salary to what I'm on now, I'd give it serious consideration.

Hitches AI utopia will deliver the dream of never having to work again but being financially sound for me in a year or two anyway.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Think this says it all. Idealistic fantasist notions but nothing to back it up really.

Just because we don't know what it will be, doesn't even slightly mean it won't happen. The more money spent on leisure activities the more jobs available in the area, its almost a mechanical certainty.

But, things like bin collecting, dishwashing, were thrown out as ideas. We can move away from a life spent resting out heads on potato sacks - its entirely plausible that our world just simply becomes better and works becomes a less important part of it. There's no need to conceptualise a world where work is a core necessity. Its almost like we've all become less religious and yet kept our religious guilt about a life of leisure.

[Solksjaer!]

I think for the majority of us on here AI will be an interesting and useful tool and will help extend our miserable stinking lives with added excitement (although mine is fine tbh ) . It’s more the next generation. I think it will be very beneficial for special need adults who may hope to have limited ‘assisted’ (human ) lives , plus there will probably be neuro programmes designed aided to develop them into the norm. Obviously their live expectancy (Putin etc apart) will be 100+ so there will be a LOT of living roles required. Who knows what roles they’ll have? Perhaps GPT5 can let us know. I would love to think a return to the creative arts was on the cards and not a WALL E type of existence. I do think people will crave HUMAN devised music and poetry , Drams, the arts etc Our sentiments sets us apart for most other kinds of intelligence . Now to get back to my screwmaster 5000.c

On a separate but similar existential thread, I’d quite like to spend my elderly years with DMTs injected from time to time. Interesting stuff abound.

[Degag]

Just because we don't know what it will be, doesn't even slightly mean it won't happen. The more money spent on leisure activities the more jobs available in the area, its almost a mechanical certainty.

But, things like bin collecting, dishwashing, were thrown out as ideas. We can move away from a life spent resting out heads on potato sacks - its entirely plausible that our world just simply becomes better and works becomes a less important part of it. There's no need to conceptualise a world where work is a core necessity. Its almost like we've all become less religious and yet kept our religious guilt about a life of leisure.

I don’t know who is going to work in all these new ‘leisure’ jobs in this new utopian world.

People don’t even want to work in them now in this un-utopian world.

[6starpool]

I have no doubt that the nature of work will change, but the short and medium term future won't be one of benevolent overlords who share the spoils of AI benefits. People will still need to do jobs that they get paid for, it'll just be different jobs in 50 years (to some extent), same as 50 years ago the spread of jobs was quite different to today, and more so from 50 years before that. Technology will change things, some things will get better and easier, but we are a huge distance away from the world of plenty with far less time/effort spent by people.

[MysteryGuest]

Don’t forget that we are also facing into potentially (and potentially is optimistic) insurmountable problems re energy generation, habitability of large swathes of the planet, food production, pollution and war that will do us before AGI has its boots on.
all that the utopians have in response is hand waving about AI will solve it all but clock is ticking fast

[Goodluck2me]

Why would governments spend more? The cost of everything will plummet.

The idea of a four day work week is that you get the same pay for four days as you would normally get for five days.

You still teach finance/economics right? So when then MASSIVE asset devaluation happens and all property prices plummet precipitously, those people are going to be cool with reskilling as a tourist guide satisfied in the knowledge their emaciated bank balance still buys a similar amount of golf lessons for a game they can no longer afford to play?

[6starpool]

And migration is only going to become a bigger thing too. The poorest parts of the world (Africa, lots of Asia) are the ones with the biggest population growth and the least ability to sustain them properly. It won't change in the medium term, but it feels like that 'us and them' model (of which we are the 'us') of the world won't be properly sustainable into the future. What the world really needs rather than AI taking over is a proper breakthrough in terms of fusion energy, and a way to have the planet be properly sustainable for 10-12bn people.

[MysteryGuest]

You still teach finance/economics right? So when then MASSIVE asset devaluation happens and all property prices plummet precipitously, those people are going to be cool with reskilling as a tourist guide satisfied in the knowledge their emaciated bank balance still buys a similar amount of golf lessons for a game they can no longer afford to play?

Next hurricane to slam Florida should lead to some of that- insurance companies will be gonzo - most of them pulling out already

[Goodluck2me]

I don’t know who is going to work in all these new ‘leisure’ jobs in this new utopian world.

People don’t even want to work in them now in this un-utopian world.

Similar to the utopia promised in the 1970s if women could only a) continue to work post marriage and ii) earn the same as their male counterparts. That turned quite quickly into… you now must work post marriage and if you don’t earn the same you’ll have to work harder to enjoy the same standard of living as before but with a commute, limited access to children and 20 days leave a year.

Why do we think that all the leisure jobs will pay anywhere near enough to sustain life when the price of everything (including labour) falls so dramatically. The only way this would change is it those who benefit dramatically from it are taxed accordingly, but societies where few people directly benefit don’t tend to sustain themselves, either from a revolution from those paying seemingly too much, or a revolt from those not earning enough.

[Goodluck2me]

Next hurricane to slam Florida should lead to some of that- insurance companies will be gonzo - most of them pulling out already

They’ll just increase premiums accordingly. Greed v Fear.

[6starpool]

Next hurricane to slam Florida should lead to some of that- insurance companies will be gonzo - most of them pulling out already

Coming into the start of the la nina weather pattern now which usually leads to more intense storms, although the record temps of the last year might moderate a little with it perhaps.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

This must be how jesus felt*.



"I am promising you a world of abundance and joy"


"nah, m8, you're going to make us all serfs washing dishes in a service economy, give me back my call centre"






* just for the avoidance of doubt, I am indeed absolutely referring to myself as Jesus here, with 6star being Heretic1 and mysteryguest as CrownJester1

[zuutroy]

So you want people to blindly follow your word with no evidence that what you say is credible? Got it!

[Opr]

I am just not sure about all these extra jobs for humans appearing (AIs, sure); I think the ideal end goal for human society is UBI, which will only be possible if governments manage to massively tax the eventual winners of the AI revolution (the likes of Sam Altman and Microsoft and so on), which may be easier said than done as the aforementioned billionaires lobby ferociously to keep tax at current levels and go to great lengths to greedily retain all of the benefits that widespread implementation of AI bring. I can confidently state that those business owners I know who are introducing AI are doing so to increase company profitability and their own bank balances, and won't be releasing a penny back to the wider public unless they are very reluctantly made to do so!

I fall halfway between Hitch's 'the wonderful future is just around the corner!' and MysteryGuest's 'the nightmarish dystopia is here, as I always expected' world views; I am at my heart an optimist though

Sounds like this AI revolution is more suited to a collectivist society. Communist utopia finally realised.

I think I posted this before here, Sam himself has written extensively about ideas on how the world might operate where the cost of work goes to near zeros.

It is a really great read - Moore's Law for Everything (samaltman.com)

He said in the interview on the All-In podcast that Open AI currently have a five year study with 3000 people on UBI that finishes within the next few week and they will be posting results and thoughts by the end of the year.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I guess the important thing is - this is going to happen. There's no putting it back in the box. So, how are we preparing for it? What type of society do we want to live in? And what type of life do we want our kids to be able to live? Its not some optional thing where we can choose to have it or not.

[Opr]

If it was just that I would believe you, but realistically it’s not down to that alone. Also using buybacks as a percentage of sales is not a great indicator, if you did both charts relative to profits it would be more realistic. I would say the primary reason is that they were so unfocused/un-coordinated. Heard some frightening stories recently, first hand from the factory, though improving too.

The problem with Boeing is the exact same problem as McDonnell Douglas had in the 1970s. Engineers sit one place, mgmt sit somewhere else. Douglas built great aircraft and McDonnell focused more on financial management, then unsurprisingly when they combined McD employees rose to the top. The issues (as written about very succinctly in The Sporty Game was that, like Boeing today, the engineers sat in Long Beach (Douglas) and the financial managers sat elsewhere. Today the Boeing engineers are in Seattle and the mgmt in Chicago first and then move to Washington… but Can you believe that the Boeing CEO and CFO work from home?? This rot all started when Boeing mgmt left Seattle (for better weather) and thus started the dislocation.

They are all kind of interlinked though. Sure in isolation the chart might not be too bad but given the context in which we know it exists, it does feel like a highly relevant part of the picture. Oliver covers the reasons you mentioned and more in the video. How do you feel about companies like this being run for profit? We have such short lifespans as humans. I am not sure I want a company trying to maximise revenue making things that fly people around in the sky. Move fast and breaks things isn't the motto I want for an airline. The incentive structure feels like it should be different for certain areas of the business. I know regulation is suppose to keep things in check but that feels a laughable solution given what we have learned around Boeing.

They would surely have gone under by now if it wasn't a case of another 'too big to fail' scenarios.

[Solksjaer!]

This must be how jesus felt*.



"I am promising you a world of abundance and joy"


"nah, m8, you're going to make us all serfs washing dishes in a service economy, give me back my call centre"






* just for the avoidance of doubt, I am indeed absolutely referring to myself as Jesus here, with 6star being Heretic1 and mysteryguest as CrownJester1

well you have made me think JESUS , several times over the years so very apt oh lord.

[Goodluck2me]

They are all kind of interlinked though. Sure in isolation the chart might not be too bad but given the context in which we know it exists, it does feel like a highly relevant part of the picture. Oliver covers the reasons you mentioned and more in the video. How do you feel about companies like this being run for profit? We have such short lifespans as humans. I am not sure I want a company trying to maximise revenue making things that fly people around in the sky. Move fast and breaks things isn't the motto I want for an airline. The incentive structure feels like it should be different for certain areas of the business. I know regulation is suppose to keep things in check but that feels a laughable solution given what we have learned around Boeing.

They would surely have gone under by now if it wasn't a case of another 'too big to fail' scenarios.

Fair points, I think the discipline of the financial markets has been a pretty good things for the industry on a net basis, otherwise you’d have a haemorrhaging of money on a scale never seen before, like what happened in the 70s and 80s. Ryanair is a great example, they are prolific for cutting corners on everything but safety, and they have one of the best reputations for it in the industry and with customers. Boeing should be run the same way. Take inventory for example, you don’t need thousands for very expensive pieces of kit lying around, and scores of people employed to find it, soaking up huge amounts of working capital. Streamlining here is both good for safety and financial returns.

I do agree that the incentive structure is all wrong with Boeing, and senior management should be incentivised with stock and rewards based on safety and deliveries with a minority devoted to financial performance, because even in a greedy world without the former you don’t get the latter anyway.

The decision around the next CEO is one of the most important the company has made since the decision to re-engine the 737, we can only hope that it’s not an internal candidate.