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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Interesting. Trinity was always the socially (if not always academically) prestigious one back in the day."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostTrying to get used to the idea of these daily standups, now we have a team of five of us including three full time (but junior) devs. It seems to involve mainly confirming that people have worked hard yesterday and will endeavour to work even harder today. Is this all that management is?
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostTrying to get used to the idea of these daily standups, now we have a team of five of us including three full time (but junior) devs. It seems to involve mainly confirming that people have worked hard yesterday and will endeavour to work even harder today. Is this all that management is?
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Originally posted by Ed View Post
NO!!!! Definitely not. I occasionally approve people's holiday requests too
It's no picnic I tell ya."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by zuutroy View Post
Is this anything to do with the day job or are you doing a 'thanks for the salary lol' while dedicating most of your brain power to your own stuff?
"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostOf course the big story of today is the 6pm press conference from OpenAI. Online speculation is that we will experience the launch of a personal assistant that can reliably carry out tasks for us (book this thing, organise that thing) through voice activation - a superpowered Siri/Alexa, if you will.
The biggest unknown is whether they launch an updated GPT4 model - e.g. GPT4.5, or even something smaller like GPT 4.2 - a definitive, but much more incremental improvement over current intelligence.
They've turned it into a big deal so it will probably be something substantial.
I suspect history will only record events like this, and not Gaza, or maybe not even poor Ukraine, when it is recording the events of this time period. We are seeing the unfolding of the building blocks of a fully new society with each incremental jump in artificial intelligence. Eventually this tech will allow 100s of millions to be cured of diseases that were previously uncurable, we'll make massive new scientific leaps that unlock things like mass space travel and endless new tech ideas, and a complete shift in how we consider learning and work.
He was on the All-In pod this week. It is much better than most of the interviews, he is much more open and candid than usual.
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How common is it to respect the senior people you work with? Is that an occasional luxury in your experience or generally the norm?
Edit: I mean respect as in take seriously, rather than in a "O Captain! My Captain!" sense.Last edited by Denny Crane; 13-05-24, 12:45.
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Originally posted by Opr View PostSurely Boeing will go down as some kind of case study into the absolute madness that is modern day society and the obsession with profits above everything. They have had three more high profile incidents over the last 2 days.
"If I had to sum up why Boeing is a terrible company in one chart it would be this (slashed investment vs. aggressive shareholder returns)"
The problem with Boeing is the exact same problem as McDonnell Douglas had in the 1970s. Engineers sit one place, mgmt sit somewhere else. Douglas built great aircraft and McDonnell focused more on financial management, then unsurprisingly when they combined McD employees rose to the top. The issues (as written about very succinctly in The Sporty Game was that, like Boeing today, the engineers sat in Long Beach (Douglas) and the financial managers sat elsewhere. Today the Boeing engineers are in Seattle and the mgmt in Chicago first and then move to Washington… but Can you believe that the Boeing CEO and CFO work from home?? This rot all started when Boeing mgmt left Seattle (for better weather) and thus started the dislocation.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostHow common is it to respect the senior people you work with? Is that an occasional luxury in your experience or generally the norm?
Line management is a different story and you can be all kinds of unfortunate, especially in a multinational setting. I would actually say the #1 skill you need to have a successful career is the ability to choose your manager wisely. To the point where you should be prepared to turn down the right job with the wrong manager."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Lovely to see the constant progress in the world. Not the big things, but just the bit by bit small improvements that really all add up to something special. I think there was something similar with PhD students, minus the sex bit (perhaps), where they were campaigning to be treated as workers and paid accordingly, but then it all kinda fell apart when it was explained that if someone wants to be treated as a worker then there are obligations on behalf of both the employer AND the employee. Think they've settled now on - 24k and its not a job, in preference to 30k and it is a job. Zuut might know more, although his part of the science world has long treated PhDs as actual workers, while the humanities have tended to more have students who've never left and nobody is quite sure what they are up to.
Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 13-05-24, 13:48."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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22k with no tax is the SFI number (up from 18k)....Even at that slightly less paltry amount nobody is interested in pursuing...In Belgium and NL you are an employee and it works well. Doing a PhD the Irish way means you're down 4 years on pension contributions which may cause some problems to some people...I would certainly like to have 4 more years service at this point in my life so I could hit the bricks at 55!
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostLovely to see the constant progress in the world. Not the big things, but just the bit by bit small improvements that really all add up to something special. I think there was something similar with PhD students, minus the sex bit (perhaps), where they were campaigning to be treated as workers and paid accordingly, but then it all kinda fell apart when it was explained that if someone wants to be treated as a worker then there are obligations on behalf of both the employer AND the employee. Think they've settled now on - 24k and its not a job, in preference to 30k and it is a job. Zuut might know more, although his part of the science world has long treated PhDs as actual workers, while the humanities have tended to more have students who've never left and nobody is quite sure what they are up to.
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
In my career, I think I've been pretty lucky and generally respected the senior leadership (i.e. the people who work at the strategic level). Some of them have been genuinely outstanding.
Line management is a different story and you can be all kinds of unfortunate, especially in a multinational setting. I would actually say the #1 skill you need to have a successful career is the ability to choose your manager wisely. To the point where you should be prepared to turn down the right job with the wrong manager.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostHow common is it to respect the senior people you work with? Is that an occasional luxury in your experience or generally the norm?
Edit: I mean respect as in take seriously, rather than in a "O Captain! My Captain!" sense.
As a general rule, it can come down to “would I like to be this person if I got that role”, if no, then it’s a bad sign.
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Originally posted by Goodluck2me View Post
In my experience I have both extremes, one I thought was an utter idiot and I moved on as soon as my career would allow, and another who I’d not give a second thought to move with them to another firm.
As a general rule, it can come down to “would I like to be this person if I got that role”, if no, then it’s a bad sign.- give you very clear direction as to what is expected of you in terms of outcomes
- give you the resources you need to achieve said outcomes
- have your back when the inevitable turf wars blow up
- get out of your way and trust you to do your job
- are responsive when you do need them
- never lie to you - this includes telling you things you would rather not hear about yourself
- aren't obsessed with their own career advancement to the detriment of everyone who works for them
- and finally, are able to prove, with word and deed, that they know what the fuck they're talking about
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostOf course the big story of today is the 6pm press conference from OpenAI. Online speculation is that we will experience the launch of a personal assistant that can reliably carry out tasks for us (book this thing, organise that thing) through voice activation - a superpowered Siri/Alexa, if you will.
The biggest unknown is whether they launch an updated GPT4 model - e.g. GPT4.5, or even something smaller like GPT 4.2 - a definitive, but much more incremental improvement over current intelligence.
They've turned it into a big deal so it will probably be something substantial.
I suspect history will only record events like this, and not Gaza, or maybe not even poor Ukraine, when it is recording the events of this time period. We are seeing the unfolding of the building blocks of a fully new society with each incremental jump in artificial intelligence. Eventually this tech will allow 100s of millions to be cured of diseases that were previously uncurable, we'll make massive new scientific leaps that unlock things like mass space travel and endless new tech ideas, and a complete shift in how we consider learning and work.
nuts that is some religious nut showed up in the forum going on about heaven there would be pages of mockery but this equally insane nonsense doesn’t get any attention
Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand
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We will have a new workforce that is essentially free, completely unlimited, and extremely high capability. It absolutely changes everything and will be changing everything very rapidly. There's almost no doubt over this. And this tech will also shortly be jumping out of the computer and into robotic devices, which is a whole new level of world capabilities.
The only question mark we have really is what is the limit of the intelligence under the GPT method. It appears that it is going to be at a very high level, way higher than most people, but its not yet known quite how high."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostThats the first swathe of millions definitively out of a job - anyone who works in a call centre. Thats crazy tech. Pour one out for indiabro.
As inevitable as it is. Just don't get why anyone would get the horn over that particular element of it.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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And the newer version of GPT4 launched, which appears to be about 5% better than the current GPT4.
Edit: 5% better, not 10% better.
Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 13-05-24, 18:26."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Lazare View Post
I understand the tech is absolutely mind blowing and there are myriad examples of where it has the potential to really change things for the better but why do you seem to cheerlead the widespread loss of livelihoods?
As inevitable as it is. Just don't get why anyone would get the horn over that particular element of it."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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What is being wiped out here is horrific jobs and we know they will be replaced by better jobs, as thats what history has told us at every single stage. We should be cheering that on. This is the beginning of the end of people working in drudgery jobs and moving into much better life opportunities - probably ones where we all need to work less also."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostThats the first swathe of millions definitively out of a job - anyone who works in a call centre. Thats crazy tech. Pour one out for indiabro.
Millions or 80% of all contact centre workers which i saw you mention on another medium are going nowhere in 2-3 years. Minor shifts yes and more long term it will be an interesting and developing space for sure.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostWhat is being wiped out here is horrific jobs and we know they will be replaced by better jobs, as thats what history has told us at every single stage. We should be cheering that on. This is the beginning of the end of people working in drudgery jobs and moving into much better life opportunities - probably ones where we all need to work less also.
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Originally posted by Degag View Post
I think you are being incredibly naïve or shortsighted or something. Contact Centres are absolutely beginning to utilise AI to deflect calls/emails etc - but much of this is with "easier" queries. Alot of it though is to assist the agent with the more difficult queries, not replace them, at least in the timescale that you envision.
Millions or 80% of all contact centre workers which i saw you mention on another medium are going nowhere in 2-3 years. Minor shifts yes and more long term it will be an interesting and developing space for sure."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
For the US it's likely better jobs for some people, and more prison places for people <90 IQ as they fall out of society.
Maybe Trump will bring back the coal mines.
"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Lazare View PostI do get that, but it's a medium to long game transition. In the meantime there'll be a bunch of people on the scrap heap.
Plus there is direct precedence for a shift like this happening, in the early 20th century over 2m telephone assistants who worked connecting phone calls were made redundant in a really short period. almost without notice. there's also an extreme shortage of workers all over the western world at the moment.
"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
ah its not. this tech will be far better at more difficult queries also. all it needs is the right information (which is often too much information for humans to manage). So instead of a team of 500 call centre workers, you will have a team of five people designing questions and answers and feeding info into the model. the big thing is that call centres tend to be quite brutal at answering questions, so the 'tech' that is being competed with (i.e. people) is so brutal, its simple to improve on. There might initially be a hydrid team like Klarna are using (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/klarna-...siemiatkowski/) with half and half human and AI, but then it very quickly becomes less and less human workers as the AI just outperforms. Which is what it will do at every level of complexity. Call centre human workers are going to hugely more expensive and significantly worse and even less empathetic than the AI.
Contractually there will be an awful lot to work out also. The specialist companies will need to be payed for the tech as the 500 agents that you mention are their bread and butter. Will the outsourcee want to pay for this / pay enough? Are they open to change currently? Some may but some may not.
The industry will not shift to the degree you think in the timeframe you think.
Ultimately, currently when i need to call a contact centre i want to speak to an agent not deal with an automated system (for the most part) or sent around in loops on an IVR. The time will come when that will change but it's a while off.
Also, at least in Ireland, the dregs of society are not employed in them. You have many people starting out in working life and a few doing it as a part time job close to retirement, parents going back in the workplace a few days of the week etc. In between you have many people in between jobs. Quite alot of college degrees in them actually. And a few people who wont move on definitely and will stay there 20 years, but a few who will make a very good career on the back of it.
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The whole new jobs we can't imagine is surely completely defunct at this point. I haven't seen a single coherent argument around it other than, that is what has happened in the past.
We are in this weird stage where the technology is at the point that it is capable of helping and enhancing us doing tasks. Eventually though it does them better without us. The infection point will happen for almost everything at some point in the coming years. Once we get some level of general intelligence that can reason properly it is game over for almost everything and after we cross that Rubicon it is hard to imagine anything we could do better. New jobs will get created but they will inevitability be done by the machines.
This is so different from anything that has come before that people don't seem to be able to conceptualize and internalize that fact. It also feels quite nihilistic in nature to think about purely because we can't yet imagine what that world would look like but I agree with Hitch that if done properly, in Sam's words, 'it could be unimaginably great'.
History does NOT Predict the Future
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Originally posted by Degag View Post
Which is all great but totally idealistic. Contact Centres are complicated beasts behind it all. Many companies outsource their contact centres to specialist companies for this very reason but most of them are only starting on the journey you are describing now. The AI tech needs to be built, and even the simpler questions are not easy to design and answer, there will still be hallucinations.
Contractually there will be an awful lot to work out also. The specialist companies will need to be payed for the tech as the 500 agents that you mention are their bread and butter. Will the outsourcee want to pay for this / pay enough? Are they open to change currently? Some may but some may not.
The industry will not shift to the degree you think in the timeframe you think.
Ultimately, currently when i need to call a contact centre i want to speak to an agent not deal with an automated system (for the most part) or sent around in loops on an IVR. The time will come when that will change but it's a while off.
Also, at least in Ireland, the dregs of society are not employed in them. You have many people starting out in working life and a few doing it as a part time job close to retirement, parents going back in the workplace a few days of the week etc. In between you have many people in between jobs. Quite alot of college degrees in them actually. And a few people who wont move on definitely and will stay there 20 years, but a few who will make a very good career on the back of it.
The core questions and answers are already designed in any professional call centre. So its actually way easier to automate than most other business functions. But AI like this, and the coming iterations, are also very capable of extrapolating reasonable answers from huge document sets, in a way that humans aren't. Plus the recordings of all the calls are already there for further model training.
I said 2-3 years in order to allow contracts to run out. But its likely it will be the outsourced centres that will be first to market with the outsourced AI agents at a 20x cheaper cost per 'agent'. These are just unbeatable cost savings, along with the promise of much better customer service - nobody will ever again have to wait for personalised help: thats something no call centre currently offers.
Theres bits and pieces to work out on data access, but thats all trivial enough. I already work with a huge multinational that was planning to outsource a lot of this to text agents, the fact that can now be voice agents is next level for them. My wife is also working for a fortune 100 company designing their chat-based replacement to customer service - they will be all over this tomorrow, not next month, not next year. Some industries might lag, but any company with more than 100 customer service reps will be pouring all over this waiting for the first reliable easy to implement system immediately.
Its just that simple - its currently a costly bad cost centre, now it can be a cheap good cost centre.
The big thing is that this is going to be the type of service that can be delivered through all the types of companies that companies already buy from. However you manage your customer calls, that system will - in a few months - be popping up with the option to do everything much cheaper and much better.
They've already rolled out the new service on ChatGPT Premium btw if you have that. Its really really good.
"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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There is going to be some serious anthropomorphising of these systems with these improvements. Even in the demo it did some quirky things that made me raise an eyebrow, like when they were asking was it good with the instructions on translating between English/Italian and GTP gave the positive affirmation in Italian.
Here it is getting told the news of the upcoming announcement.
Oh my!
Last edited by Opr; 13-05-24, 20:51.
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ha.
Genuinely though, there was an interesting survey today saying only 25% of Irish workers are using AI (mostly secretly) at work. So that means at least 75% are largely oblivious, and probably most of the 25% using it aren't aware of its capabilities. The real opportunity here is to be the AI person, or the person who is working out how another company like your company could be run by these new AI workflows. We've a few years of opportunity here to absolutely make bank while most of the population is oblivious. Anything even slightly AI - become that guy in your company, theres just no putting it back in the box now."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
The core questions and answers are already designed in any professional call centre. So its actually way easier to automate than most other business functions. But AI like this, and the coming iterations, are also very capable of extrapolating reasonable answers from huge document sets, in a way that humans aren't. Plus the recordings of all the calls are already there for further model training.
I said 2-3 years in order to allow contracts to run out. But its likely it will be the outsourced centres that will be first to market with the outsourced AI agents at a 20x cheaper cost per 'agent'. These are just unbeatable cost savings, along with the promise of much better customer service - nobody will ever again have to wait for personalised help: thats something no call centre currently offers.
Theres bits and pieces to work out on data access, but thats all trivial enough. I already work with a huge multinational that was planning to outsource a lot of this to text agents, the fact that can now be voice agents is next level for them. My wife is also working for a fortune 100 company designing their chat-based replacement to customer service - they will be all over this tomorrow, not next month, not next year. Some industries might lag, but any company with more than 100 customer service reps will be pouring all over this waiting for the first reliable easy to implement system immediately.
Its just that simple - its currently a costly bad cost centre, now it can be a cheap good cost centre.
The big thing is that this is going to be the type of service that can be delivered through all the types of companies that companies already buy from. However you manage your customer calls, that system will - in a few months - be popping up with the option to do everything much cheaper and much better.
They've already rolled out the new service on ChatGPT Premium btw if you have that. Its really really good.
Well look, ultimately i'm quite happy to take the unders on the 80% of jobs in that industry being gone in 2-3 years. Not sure how quantifiable it is though.
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Postha.
Genuinely though, there was an interesting survey today saying only 25% of Irish workers are using AI (mostly secretly) at work. So that means at least 75% are largely oblivious, and probably most of the 25% using it aren't aware of its capabilities. The real opportunity here is to be the AI person, or the person who is working out how another company like your company could be run by these new AI workflows. We've a few years of opportunity here to absolutely make bank while most of the population is oblivious. Anything even slightly AI - become that guy in your company, theres just no putting it back in the box now.Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand
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Originally posted by MysteryGuest View Post
We are explicitly forbidden from using AI (such as chat GPT) by our compliance and ethics policy surprisingly enough companies in the real world don’t want people just dumping commercially sensitive info into these things - thanks for the tip though
"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Weird how the AI hype merchants cheer on AI taking all the lower class jobs- always with the unstated implication that they themselves will be pivoting to some lovely new job that will allow them to flourish as a human and couldn’t possibly be done better by AI.
Something tells me AI won’t be improving the plight of the kids mining cobalt in Africa anytime soonWill you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand
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Originally posted by MysteryGuest View PostWeird how the AI hype merchants cheer on AI taking all the lower class jobs- always with the unstated implication that they themselves will be pivoting to some lovely new job that will allow them to flourish as a human and couldn’t possibly be done better by AI.
Something tells me AI won’t be improving the plight of the kids mining cobalt in Africa anytime soon"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
I get that you are doing a rugby or horse racing thing here, but we are seeing a new reality unfold here. the best use of your time is working out what direction to steer your career and that the future career of your kid in, not burying your head in the sand. There is literally no putting this back in the box.Will you ever fuck off with that shite... you are easily one of the worst posters on here for this-Pokerhand
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostOur biggest problem with AI is getting good clean data to train the models on. Crap in, crap out."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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