Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - It's the end of the world as we know it

[Lazare]

Just realised I had a thought yesterday driving over the Westlink M50 bridge of it collapsing under me. One of those 'imagine if' thoughts.

I drove under it on Sun morn and was marvelling at how imposing it is.

Absolutely insane videos and images coming out of Baltimore.

[Lazare]

Interested to hear Lao Lao's take on how this affects global trade.

[MysteryGuest]

Excellent stuff from florida

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/26/ron-desantis-florida-social-media-ban-children

now bring it in here but up the age limit to 80 and let’s take society from the cunts

while we are at it should probably do something about online pornography- all a lad needs is a few tattered mags - online has done some fucking number on a generation

[Strewelpeter]

I blame Zuut

GJleYeCXoAAzWGV?format=jpg&name=medium.jpg

[MysteryGuest]

I blame Zuut

GJleYeCXoAAzWGV?format=jpg&name=medium.jpg

Was just about to post same image- how was there even a survivor

[MysteryGuest]

Didn’t realise that amongst his other crimes like overhyping shitty studies - Huberman none too fond of vaccines
nuts how many of the lads injecting themselves with all sorts of stuff get squeamish about vaccines

not Sure if he’s done more than testosterone but wouldn’t bet against - even at that there’s risks to using and irresponsible for dopes like rogan and this lad who can afford proper medical supervision to advocate to their gormless listeners

[Goodluck2me]

Rewatching the Wire again, forgotten everything except the last episode.

Love the Omar line to Barksale’s Lawyer “ we ain’t that different, we both rob drug dealers, just I do it with a shotgun and you do it with a briefcase”.

[Mellor]

Isn't that, eh, something else? But maybe it would explain a lot.

That was precisely the word, and meaning, I intended. Describes them perfectly

[Lazare]

Rewatching the Wire again, forgotten everything except the last episode.

Love the Omar line to Barksale’s Lawyer “ we ain’t that different, we both rob drug dealers, just I do it with a shotgun and you do it with a briefcase”.

Mrs and I just decided to rewatch it too.

[Opr]

Excellent stuff from florida

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/26/ron-desantis-florida-social-media-ban-children

now bring it in here but up the age limit to 80 and let’s take society from the cunts

I'm finding it increasingly hard to understand how social media sites survive the coming blizzard of AI generated content. Already apparently Facebook is a shitshow with stuff where half the pictures are AI generated content. Its a running joke on some of the forums I read to post the content that people think is real. This one has already become an internet meme. Its probably bots talking to bots in the comments too

f29.jpg

The beginning wave of consumer access to video generated content is only just starting. This is some site that you pick an AI actor, feed it a script and out this pops. It still not perfect but it will be soon.

[Opr]

Funny to come across this after I posted the above

the-ai-is-among-us-v0-fbdj7jccloqc1.jpeg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=e9d072ec4f657619aa352ff3c92ca321e0004811.jpg

[Dice75]

Might get everyone all off the internet and back to real life in the end

[Raoul Duke III]

Might get everyone all off the internet and back to real life in the end

That ship has sailed. Hopefully AI can play the role adults traditionally did while we humans stare more intently at the little screens in our hands.

[Strewelpeter]

It's all A and fuck all I

But then what would you expect from something whose only ability is to output the next word it thinks you want to hear.

[Raoul Duke III]

It's all A and fuck all I

But then what would you expect from something whose only ability is to output the next word it thinks you want to hear.

Mrs D3 did indeed decline the kind invitation to visit the sausage making facility. Although is also reasonably interested in eating some.

[DeadParrot]

Mrs D3 did indeed decline the kind invitation to visit the sausage making facility. Although is also reasonably interested in eating some.

[Strewelpeter]

Mrs D3 did indeed decline the kind invitation to visit the sausage making facility. Although is also reasonably interested in eating some.

Would still highly recommend Lecco as a nice day trip if you are looking to get out of Milan, every bit as nice as but much less crowded than the tourist hotspots of Como and Bellagio.

[Opr]

It's all A and fuck all I

But then what would you expect from something whose only ability is to output the next word it thinks you want to hear.

Aren't we just much more sophisticated prediction machines? This talk isn't related to AI but is a great exploration of that idea.

[Raoul Duke III]

Would still highly recommend Lecco as a nice day trip if you are looking to get out of Milan, every bit as nice as but much less crowded than the tourist hotspots of Como and Bellagio.

We're only there for a couple of days so likely just to stay central. Any recommendations for the centro appreciated though.

[thechamp87]

Has anyone had a safe installed at home? If so, any recommendations for someone to speak to? I'm based in South County Dublin. Cheers

[Strewelpeter]

Has anyone had a safe installed at home? If so, any recommendations for someone to speak to? I'm based in South County Dublin. Cheers

No need for one myself but the lads who do ATM work for us do them, not cheap but they do good work. I'll send you the lads number.

[Mellor]

Has anyone had a safe installed at home? If so, any recommendations for someone to speak to? I'm based in South County Dublin. Cheers

I have one. Bought online, delivered to a local hardware store, collected it. Installed it myself.

Getting some handyman around to do it seemed like a good way to let a stranger know I had a safe.

[Raoul Duke III]

What do you lads be keeping at home that you need a safe for? Seems very last millenium.

[Lazare]

What do you lads be keeping at home that you need a safe for? Seems very last millenium.

Heirlooms maybe?

The hollow of a curtain pole is more secure than a safe though imo.

[Murdrum]

What do you lads be keeping at home that you need a safe for? Seems very last millenium.

The house the step-father bought had one installed. It was located under a false floor in a built-in wardrobe. It was probably 18 inches deep and needed two keys to open. Bizarre now that I think of it.

[Mellor]

What do you lads be keeping at home that you need a safe for? Seems very last millenium.

I keep my bitcoin in it.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

It's all A and fuck all I

But then what would you expect from something whose only ability is to output the next word it thinks you want to hear.

Thats probably enough to exceed human intelligence. Even if its probably not enough to build a super-intelligence. The models are currently trained to mimic human intelligence, but human intelligence in all its forms. There's no innate reason why future versions (such as GPT4.5 due for release mid-Summer) wouldn't be trained to emulate just the highest forms of human intelligence. At which point we have human-capable AI agents who can essentially do nearly everyones jobs. Even with current capabilities the models can do a decent part of most peoples intellectual jobs. GPT4.5 sounds like it will be a very decent step ahead. That type of model alone - which is probably only halfway to AGI - will be capable of redesigning how the world works.

[Opr]

The Secret Army is quite the watch. Incredible story and feels like it only touched the edges.

[Solksjaer!]

For the 1st time since the kids were born I feel in the mood to play a game of Poker . Dont have the time for a 2/3 day event but may play a bit o cash or a 1 day over the PP weekend. 1st though I need to remember the combo to the vault .

[Opr]

Thats probably enough to exceed human intelligence. Even if its probably not enough to build a super-intelligence. The models are currently trained to mimic human intelligence, but human intelligence in all its forms. There's no innate reason why future versions (such as GPT4.5 due for release mid-Summer) wouldn't be trained to emulate just the highest forms of human intelligence. At which point we have human-capable AI agents who can essentially do nearly everyones jobs. Even with current capabilities the models can do a decent part of most peoples intellectual jobs. GPT4.5 sounds like it will be a very decent step ahead. That type of model alone - which is probably only halfway to AGI - will be capable of redesigning how the world works.

This clip from an upcoming pod with one of the guys from DeepMind and another from Anthropic AI is pretty great. There is a theory that you can reach reasoning (Maybe even its how we do it) mainly through pattern matching with a hierarchy of associated memories. I won't butcher the explanation as it took me a few watches to understand wtf he is talking about but its fascinating.

It is also a little less alarming in terms of waking up this superintelligence as if true it means intelligence would cap out at a certain point close to humans and the superlevel human performance is just about its ability to hold and pattern match across much larger amounts of data.

[Lazare]

'Nearly everyone's job'

I think you need to mix more with regular working folk.

There's 30+ people in our company and there's probably two that could possibly be replaced by AI.

I had a meeting with a partner company today, training them on how to sell our product. Seven of us in the room, not one replaceable by AI, now or ever.

That's not anecdotal either, the vast majority of the economy is interpersonal. People buying from people, people selling to people.

AI might sack my architect but it's not going to lay my bricks.

'Nearly everyone's job'

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

This clip from an upcoming pod with one of the guys from DeepMind and another from Anthropic AI is pretty great. There is a theory that you can reach reasoning (Maybe even its how we do it) mainly through pattern matching with a hierarchy of associated memories. I won't butcher the explanation as it took me a few watches to understand wtf he is talking about but its fascinating.

It is also a little less alarming in terms of waking up this superintelligence as if true it means intelligence would cap out at a certain point close to humans and the superlevel human performance is just about its ability to hold and pattern match across much larger amounts of data.

Thats fascinating! Context windows, context windows, context windows!!!

[Ed]

Shipped an IO main event seat for 135 quid last night, feeling pretty pleased with myself. Didn't play particularly well, people mostly donated their chips to me for the first few levels. Had the ticket locked up before the 2nd break

[Dice75]

Shipped an IO main event seat for 135 quid last night, feeling pretty pleased with myself. Didn't play particularly well, people mostly donated their chips to me for the first few levels. Had the ticket locked up before the 2nd break

I saw it started an hour late - what time did it wrap up at?

Actually it was a get to X amount of chips so i guess its a variable finish time

[Raoul Duke III]

Hoping that all this sakura will translate into a fine crop come the summer. The greengage gin went down extremely well over the past few months.

20240328_103935.jpg

[Theresa]

'Nearly everyone's job'

I think you need to mix more with regular working folk.

There's 30+ people in our company and there's probably two that could possibly be replaced by AI.

I had a meeting with a partner company today, training them on how to sell our product. Seven of us in the room, not one replaceable by AI, now or ever.

That's not anecdotal either, the vast majority of the economy is interpersonal. People buying from people, people selling to people.

AI might sack my architect but it's not going to lay my bricks.

'Nearly everyone's job'

Instead of thinking about AI replacing humans vertically (that is, that it replaces all the things a single human worker can do in a given context), think about it as AI replacing some of the things, that person does.

Ultimately, it’s very feasible one human job could be replaced by AI (by eliminating a collection of tasks that multiple humans do).

Sales isn’t homogeneously “interpersonal.” AI can very much help targeting, marketing, scheduling, emailing, contracting, faqs, post sales service etc etc.

Im not totally familiar with your business but I’d guess, like most businesses, humans is a big old cost. Anything that lets me spend less on sales humans, or customer service humans is a big benefit to the business.

Nearly everyone’s job will be affected.

My own take is that there will be two major things come from the advancement from AI.

1. A re organization of what a “role” is.
2. Less overall “work” for humans.

How those things play out is anyone’s guess but historically it’s been great for humanity.

[Ed]

I saw it started an hour late - what time did it wrap up at?

Actually it was a get to X amount of chips so i guess its a variable finish time

Yeah, just had to get to 10 x starting stack and they cash you out. It started at 9, I got my ticket just around midnight but think they'd only given out about 7/8 of the 50 seats at that stage

[Theresa]

7/8’s of 50.

Why are you making me do that math Ed.

[dinekes]

Heirlooms maybe?

The hollow of a curtain pole is more secure than a safe though imo.

Hollowed out household stuff not bad I would think.

Back in my live poker playing days I kept a float in an old VCR in a cupboard. Didn't think anyone would bother nicking it as it was all DVD players at that stage.

Or maybe ..like "No country for Old Men" where Lewellyn hid the case in a duct (still irritates me a bit he never checked through it on the off chance that the drug money might have a tracker of some sort)

Now it's loose change in a bowl lol

[Ed]

7/8’s of 50.

Why are you making me do that math Ed.

Ha, that's 7 or 8, as in there were 42 or 43 seats left to be won at that stage

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

'Nearly everyone's job'

I think you need to mix more with regular working folk.

There's 30+ people in our company and there's probably two that could possibly be replaced by AI.

I had a meeting with a partner company today, training them on how to sell our product. Seven of us in the room, not one replaceable by AI, now or ever.

That's not anecdotal either, the vast majority of the economy is interpersonal. People buying from people, people selling to people.

AI might sack my architect but it's not going to lay my bricks.

'Nearly everyone's job'

To continue Theresa's point - really all you've done there is say 'my company has all these interpersonal human costs built in, therefore it is irreplaceable'. Thats a bit like saying the interpersonal nature of a main street shop - that lovely caring interaction - could never be replaced by an impersonal Amazon. And yet here we are with every main street the exclusive domain of vape shops and cash-only mobile repair centres.

Sure, purely interpersonal jobs - where there is an unassailable value to the interpersonal costs, such as e.g. hairdressing, are protected going forward. But even there, people in those jobs are going to be affected by a lot more people seeking to work in those types of jobs as they abandon admin jobs.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Listening to All-In podcast for the first time today and its rather epic. A proper element of debating tension among the crew. Ye've all heard it? I think its hosted by mainly poker people, but with a focus on business.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Ha, that's 7 or 8, as in there were 42 or 43 seats left to be won at that stage

whoosh.jpeg.gif.aviv

[Murdrum]

Parking seemed fine last year at the RDS but I can’t remember what Day 1 I played.

I know tomorrow will be crazy but will there still be plenty of parking in the afternoon?

[Strewelpeter]

[Lazare]

Instead of thinking about AI replacing humans vertically (that is, that it replaces all the things a single human worker can do in a given context), think about it as AI replacing some of the things, that person does.

Ultimately, it’s very feasible one human job could be replaced by AI (by eliminating a collection of tasks that multiple humans do).

Sales isn’t homogeneously “interpersonal.” AI can very much help targeting, marketing, scheduling, emailing, contracting, faqs, post sales service etc etc.

Im not totally familiar with your business but I’d guess, like most businesses, humans is a big old cost. Anything that lets me spend less on sales humans, or customer service humans is a big benefit to the business.

Nearly everyone’s job will be affected.

My own take is that there will be two major things come from the advancement from AI.

1. A re organization of what a “role” is.
2. Less overall “work” for humans.

How those things play out is anyone’s guess but historically it’s been great for humanity.

My own area is B2B.

B2B is highly interpersonal, sales, after sales, customer service. It's built on partnerships and developed relationships. It's why sales reps are on the road. People buy from people.

Feedback from companies we work with is that our main strenght is our customer care and service. We have a great product sure, but people buy from us because of how we make them feel. That's fully interpersonal. We also buy from companies that make us feel that way.

You can't AI that. You can as you suggest improve efficiencies with automation and tech. I depend on Google calendar, my phone has replaced the need for a PA.

Outside B2B there are countless roles in the economy that are secure. Look around you at every day people working every day jobs and see how many you can see that are fully replaceable by AI.

Jobs that require nothing more than a brain are fucked though

[Goodluck2me]

My own area is B2B.

B2B is highly interpersonal, sales, after sales, customer service. It's built on partnerships and developed relationships. It's why sales reps are on the road. People buy from people.

Feedback from companies we work with is that our main strenght is our customer care and service. We have a great product sure, but people buy from us because of how we make them feel. That's fully interpersonal. We also buy from companies that make us feel that way.

You can't AI that. You can as you suggest improve efficiencies with automation and tech. I depend on Google calendar, my phone has replaced the need for a PA.

Outside B2B there are countless roles in the economy that are secure. Look around you at every day people working every day jobs and see how many you can see that are fully replaceable by AI.

Jobs that require nothing more than a brain are fucked though

Will AI fix the roads?

There will be many many jobs that AI will impact, but far fewer that it impacts exclusively negatively.

[Degag]

Parking seemed fine last year at the RDS but I can’t remember what Day 1 I played.

I know tomorrow will be crazy but will there still be plenty of parking in the afternoon?

Is there some rugby game on in the RDS tomorrow? I saw something on FB earlier from the IO saying parking would be almost non existent tomorrow.

[Silver-Tiger]

NM found it

[Opr]

Forget Andrew Huberman. someone needs to find out wtf, Ernie Hudson is taking. This is a picture taken from him doing press for the new Ghostbusters film.

He is 78!!

[Degag]

NM found it

Poker Lens app.

odd, your post is still showing your original post for me but the quote is showing the edited one.

[dobby]

Is there some rugby game on in the RDS tomorrow? I saw something on FB earlier from the IO saying parking would be almost non existent tomorrow.

Leinster play at 7.45 tomorrow. Not sure if it's on here or Aviva. Parking is expected to sell out in the afternoon.

[dobby]

NM found it

Poker lens has all information for every tourney.

Stacks being update on breaks

[Theresa]

My own area is B2B.

B2B is highly interpersonal, sales, after sales, customer service. It's built on partnerships and developed relationships. It's why sales reps are on the road. People buy from people.

Feedback from companies we work with is that our main strenght is our customer care and service. We have a great product sure, but people buy from us because of how we make them feel. That's fully interpersonal. We also buy from companies that make us feel that way.

You can't AI that. You can as you suggest improve efficiencies with automation and tech. I depend on Google calendar, my phone has replaced the need for a PA.

Outside B2B there are countless roles in the economy that are secure. Look around you at every day people working every day jobs and see how many you can see that are fully replaceable by AI.

Jobs that require nothing more than a brain are fucked though

I feel like you didn't even read what I said!

I'm not saying AI will fully replace any "job" or "role" but it will replace people.
A job or role is a collection of tasks done by a person.
If a % of those tasks can be done by AI.
Then you need less people to do the remaining.

if you have 100 tasks being done by 10 people.
and 20 of those tasks can be done by AI.
You bet your last dollar that the business will restructure the roles so they only need 8 people.

I think you are assuming that the things you do for work will remain the same in future. This isn't true.
A lot of the things you do will be replaced by AI.

Take your "feedback from companies" is that your main strength is customer care and service.
That is likely a culimination of everyone who is front line being knowledgeable, approachable and responding to queries quickly.
There is a % of those queries that can be responded to by a knowledgeable, approachable and fast AI.

That leave a % left that you need humans for.

If your boss doesn't react, he'll be left behind by other companies that can provide same for cheaper and use the extra cash for innovation/investment/growth.

[Theresa]

Listening to All-In podcast for the first time today and its rather epic. A proper element of debating tension among the crew. Ye've all heard it? I think its hosted by mainly poker people, but with a focus on business.

Its good but they are a little out of touch. And sort of tech bro'y.
They are all dickheads, smart dickheads, but dickheads except maybe Friedberg but even he lately is getting a little dicky.

If you like this, then BGsquared podcast is better again, less bro shit, Gurley an incredible speaker and has some great nuanced takes.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bg2pod-with-brad-gerstner-and-bill-gurley/id1727278168

[DeadParrot]

Forget Andrew Huberman. someone needs to find out wtf, Ernie Hudson is taking. This is a picture taken from him doing press for the new Ghostbusters film.

He is 78!!

black don't crack

[Theresa]

Will AI fix the roads?

There will be many many jobs that AI will impact, but far fewer that it impacts exclusively negatively.

Define fix the roads?

If you mean fill in potholes, it might not need to to add value initially.

As more and more cars start getting fully self drive and onboard cameras for this, you now have a reporting mechanism that benefits everyone.
Safely avoid potholes and be warned of them way before you see them.
Let people know ahead of time that a bad piece road is coming up, as other cars have reported,
Slow people down automatically.

Then in terms of fixing,
Report bad roads, you could even quantify the monetary value of damage caused. Will help prioritize where resources go.
Help figure out exactly what resources are needed for specific roads at specific times.

Lots of that stuff is future oriented but to think that AI can't help with basically every task. The above is my non creative brain, but there are so many applications.

And it isn't just LLMs (which is what people are defining as AI right now) there are other models too, image/pattern recognition and inferred learning and how Tesla are approaching that for FSD, that will have so many applications.

[Solksjaer!]

black don't crack

Hold my beer

[Raoul Duke III]

Now standing outside a thrift shop just off Capel St as my daughters ransack it (sustainable ftw) and wondering vaguely what the 'Erotica private members club' over the road entails....

[Goodluck2me]

Now standing outside a thrift shop just off Capel St as my daughters ransack it (sustainable ftw) and wondering vaguely what the 'Erotica private members club' over the road entails....

Is that where you get your Good Reads recommendations?