Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - BabyforV

[LuckyLloyd]

No bet on turnout; on unders @ 66.5 and 68.5. Have a range of constituencies to vote no for small money, but half of my betting total is on Donegal so disaster if that doesn't come home (better be no fecking students making that journey back).

Although, not the worst way to lose money tbh.

Thought I was buying money so no hedge

I'd be worried about the Donegal bet

[6starpool]

Is 5star getting on okay at work? Friday now m8

Happy now I'm sitting on a train rather than at my desk.

[Fiery Wasabi]

Just as I got to my local polling station, there's a mini-bus pulling away with about 15 ole biddies in it. Cunts probably haven't been able to vote in years, and now they are being driven to the polling station. Local parish priest doing his good deed for the day, no doubt.

Hope they all tricked him and voted yes!

[Denny Crane]

I'd be worried about the Donegal bet

Why? It's such a huge outlier in nearly every referendum result. (low turnout probably bodes well too, none of those young enthusiastic people up early to vote)

[Lao Lao]

Happy now I'm sitting on a train rather than at my desk.

I'd say you'd be happier if you were driving it rather than just sitting on it

[Raoul Duke III]

No bet on turnout; on unders @ 66.5 and 68.5. Have a range of constituencies to vote no for small money, but half of my betting total is on Donegal so disaster if that doesn't come home (better be no fecking students making that journey back).

Although, not the worst way to lose money tbh.

Thought I was buying money so no hedge

PP have nudged the line to 60.5. Start counting your moniez.

[Denny Crane]

I'd almost be inclined to bet overs on that. Hard to tell though with the social media bias, going by that you'd think it was 90%+.

[Tar.Aldarion]

I'd be worried about the Donegal bet

Why? It's such a huge outlier in nearly every referendum result. (low turnout probably bodes well too, none of those young enthusiastic people up early to vote)

One does not simply vote against Daniel O'Donnell.

[CHDad]

[NewApproach]

Looking forward to my 16 day (unemployed) weekend

[The Situation]

Overs moving out slowly but surely, now 4/5 over 61.5. Might get squeaky bum for a few soon

Assume there'll be an exit poll result at some stage tonight?

[KevIRL]

Overs moving out slowly but surely, now 4/5 over 61.5. Might get squeaky bum for a few soon

Assume there'll be an exit poll result at some stage tonight?

Tomorrow morning exit poll result

[AndyFatBastard]

Tomorrow morning exit poll result

Ugh we have to wait that long? I guess we will know by the Dublin turnouts assuming those are allowed to be reported.

[digiman]

Might drive up to Donegal to vote no

Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.

Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.

Any ideas?

[bp_me]

Might drive up to Donegal to vote no

Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.

Call a broker. I use simply insure and find them good enough.

[Denny Crane]

Overs moving out slowly but surely, now 4/5 over 61.5. Might get squeaky bum for a few soon

Assume there'll be an exit poll result at some stage tonight?

while no odds shortened

[Fiery Wasabi]

Might drive up to Donegal to vote no

Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.

Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.

Any ideas?

Try these... both my kids got a good deal with them http://www.firstireland.ie/

[darwinatemyhamster]

Might drive up to Donegal to vote no

Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.

Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.

Any ideas?

Try 123, they were handing out great deals last year(they might have changed tack since of course) for your first shot with them, they double the quote for the second year but you don't need to worry about that now.

Surely any exit polls would be skewed towards the yes side?

[The Situation]

while no odds shortened

Yeah weird. 4/5 over 62.5 now.

[Tar.Aldarion]

Realise I never changed my avatar from the gay pride week ages ago, I knew laziness would pay off.

[CHDad]

Is the Skype logo underneath peoples avatars showing up as a broken link for anyone else? It is annoying, does not please my eyes.

[KevIRL]

Votes cast. Huge numbers at the polling place. Moving slowly too thanks to the bunt at the desk insisting on asking everyone for ID.

[ghostface]

My voting place is up in Brookfield in Tallaght. Very busy and good to see quite a range of foreign persons voting aswell. Did hear one person asking where they could vote on the gay marriage which I enjoyed

[BobSloane]

Might drive up to Donegal to vote no

Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.

Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.

Any ideas?

Call a broker. I use simply insure and find them good enough.

Yeah I'd go with the broker move. Went to munster group after my own insurance company for 10+ years decided to up my premium by 30% for no reason this year and wouldn't budge. Insured with this crowd now http://www.patrona.ie/

Maybe the ignition thing with aviva would apply here to be of some use? http://www.aviva.ie/online/driving/ignition/qualify/

[TheWitchDoctor]

Is the Skype logo underneath peoples avatars showing up as a broken link for anyone else? It is annoying, does not please my eyes.

yep

[NewApproach]

I was looking out at my polling station and there was no bible visible. Presume it was hidden away which is proper order imo.

It was a youngish guy behind the desk (fwiw I'd say about 4/7 to be gay) and as he was handing me the two ballot papers, says "this is the 'equality' one and that is the presidential one". Curious way to put it, no? I was a clear yes so made no odds to me but could be interpreted as influencing on the fence voters imo. I'd be sure it's not correct procedure anyhow...

[Jam-Fly]

Might drive up to Donegal to vote no

Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.

Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.

Any ideas?

got mine renewed last week. Went into a broker and it was 400 less than what Liberty were quoting me. What age are you? The 1500 mentioned seems a lot with 3 years NCB.

On a related note, the broker is a friend of mine and I was talking to him after and he said car insurance is going to go up around 25% in the next few years. There's been a price war the last while and the end result was basically that no one was making money, so expect your quotes next year to go up!

[Denny Crane]

That's phenomenal for a ref. Overs looking like value.

[Guest]

Read a great quote re: people coming home to vote.

"They're only here for the backslapping hashtag"

Beautiful cynicism right there.

[eamonhonda]

Is the cavan/monaghan still looking like a lock or are we nervous hotspur? Is there any read on that?

[Guest]

Also I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference. I spent the morning in search of some studies on the matter and the best I could do was to find a simulation of a 2 candidate election with a register of 5 million where the true balance was at 50.1 vs 49.9 and they ran a simulation by picking random turnouts on a Poisson distribution.
Any single vote in that case had a 2 x 10^-9 chance of being the casting one. The best argument I heard for voting was so that one could look their gay friends in the face and tell them they went out and supported them, but I'd rather give them a probability lesson.

[Tar.Aldarion]

Is the Skype logo underneath peoples avatars showing up as a broken link for anyone else? It is annoying, does not please my eyes.

This is why I am the only one that has it, to vex you. It seems to work out though, lots of 23 year old flirty girls seem to add me from here. Definitely human, definitely.

[ComradeCollie]

Also I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference.

I did consider not bothering, but I'd really like it if there was a high yes vote and it would just be extreme laziness not to contribute to it.

Cast mine about 7.30pm. Didn't seem any busier than usual, and plenty of old folk barely able to walk ( really hoping they were yes voters too).

[Raoul Duke III]

Also I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference. I spent the morning in search of some studies on the matter and the best I could do was to find a simulation of a 2 candidate election with a register of 5 million where the true balance was at 50.1 vs 49.9 and they ran a simulation by picking random turnouts on a Poisson distribution.
Any single vote in that case had a 2 x 10^-9 chance of being the casting one. The best argument I heard for voting was so that one could look their gay friends in the face and tell them they went out and supported them, but I'd rather give them a probability lesson.

oi stalker

that kid you met said you have a 'big car'. Seemed impressed.

Mrs DIII has fucked off to Prague for the weekend. Sick life. 6 hours into full-time parenting and I'm wrecked, no idea how fellow single parents manage it,

[Guest]

oi stalker

that kid you met said you have a 'big car'. Seemed impressed.

Mrs DIII has fucked off to Prague for the weekend. Sick life. 6 hours into full-time parenting and I'm wrecked, no idea how fellow single parents manage it,

Tell her it's hers for 10k. Have done the full time thing a couple of weekends...damn tough going with 2, never mind 3.

[Raoul Duke III]

Pienaar is just uber-clutch. Ridiculous kick there.

[CHDad]

Pienaar is just uber-clutch. Ridiculous kick there.

Would you use that turn of phrase in a conversation?

[Lazare]

just had a guy in giving me a quote for one of these lads. Quite energised to do this now - massive man cave potential imo (although will no doubt be taken over by kids in due course )

SPOILER

John Sherry? Nice guy, I spoke to him a while back about fitting out his units with these real cool Dutch blinds. Must give him a call.

[Lord Sir Banter]

Also I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference. I spent the morning in search of some studies on the matter and the best I could do was to find a simulation of a 2 candidate election with a register of 5 million where the true balance was at 50.1 vs 49.9 and they ran a simulation by picking random turnouts on a Poisson distribution.
Any single vote in that case had a 2 x 10^-9 chance of being the casting one. The best argument I heard for voting was so that one could look their gay friends in the face and tell them they went out and supported them, but I'd rather give them a probability lesson.

I used to use the above correct logic as part of my reasoning for not voting. I think there is a certain small +life ev from wanting to be involved.

Yea, I enjoyed the walk though. I'd be more inclined to not bother if peoples feels weren't on the line.

I've never voted in a general election, even though your vote has a higher chance of impacting.

May need some side bets to garner an interest in general politics. Does seem to be solid ents for those that are.

[Raoul Duke III]

Would you use that turn of phrase in a conversation?

probably not, you got me.

do you say 'mate' all the time, nothing I detest more than being called mate (think it goes back to living in Oz where it gets used aggressively)

[Raoul Duke III]

John Sherry? Nice guy, I spoke to him a while back about fitting out his units with these real cool Dutch blinds. Must give him a call.

that's the man

[CHDad]

probably not, you got me.

do you say 'mate' all the time, nothing I detest more than being called mate (think it goes back to living in Oz where it gets used aggressively)

Never, it's all too English chummy wummy for me. I say m8.

Don't think I use anything, probably nicknames or something. I'll listen to myself next time I am drunk. Pain.

[ComradeCollie]

Aul Denny really has us all in his pockets, grand fella so he is.

Oh dear that the law can't be broken to talk about his personal affairs. Never mind that if it had gone through the courts we would all have lost privacy protection.

Hitch I have to say I am deeply and painfully uneasy with that decision re: O'Brien

[mdoug]

There literally was not a single person going in/out of my polling station the 4 times I walked past so was a bit anxious about the overs bet.

Thanks for the reassurance and get those votes in guys!!

[KevIRL]

Pienaar is just uber-clutch. Ridiculous kick there.

Goosed though

[Solskjaer]

Anyone with a vague interest in the Vasa should get a LOL out of this. All the skill and craft to build such a beautiful vessel and yet such stoooooopidity to build it with no chance to sail.

http://www.vasamuseet.se/en/About/News/The-Vasa-ship-is-lop-sided/

[Lord Sir Banter]

m8 is the uber clutch totes friendly way of saying mate m8

[Emmet]

Pienaar is just uber-clutch. Ridiculous kick there.

Lutton, unfortunately, was not.

[V for Vendetta]

Ulster bottled it when it was put up to them. Shame.

[Emmet]

Ulster bottled it when it was put up to them. Shame.

Lutton's sily (and harsh) penalty was the loss maker unfortunately.

[V for Vendetta]

Lutton's sily (and harsh) penalty was the loss maker unfortunately.

More than that IMO. They made a lot of other mental mistakes in the second half. Kicking out on the full. Playing in wrong areas. Fucking up crucial line outs. Poor midfield play. They just don't seem to be able to stay cool when it matters most.

[horatio1]

There literally was not a single person going in/out of my polling station the 4 times I walked past so was a bit anxious about the overs bet.

Thanks for the reassurance and get those votes in guys!!

Just voted in deep rural laois . Polling clerk told me turnout 58 %. Not sure if that is good for yes or no's.

[Emmet]

More than that IMO. They made a lot of other mental mistakes in the second half. Kicking out on the full. Playing in wrong areas. Fucking up crucial line outs. Poor midfield play. They just don't seem to be able to stay cool when it matters most.

If Lutton's penalty isn't given, Ulster score 3 points within the next 90 seconds and its an 8 point game and game over imo.

Matawalu's OTT reaction was a bit sickening. I'd be absolutely gutted to be an Ulster fan tonight.

[Denny Crane]

PP book is mad, yes line keeps going up while no shortens

[Guest]

More than that IMO. They made a lot of other mental mistakes in the second half. Kicking out on the full. Playing in wrong areas. Fucking up crucial line outs. Poor midfield play. They just don't seem to be able to stay cool when it matters most.

Glasgow without there captain Kellock giving away lots of penaltys making laods of mistakes poor knock ons etc and still Ulster couldnt get the win.
I hope Glasgow win it out have played some great stuff this year high tempo off loading game with the two Fijians at the heart of it.

[mdoug]

Just voted in deep rural laois . Polling clerk told me turnout 58 %. Not sure if that is good for yes or no's.

I think Laois is one of the one that hotspur wants no votes, would have no idea how to read into the 58% tbh but I wish it was higher haha.

I missed the boat on the 69.5% completely so went overs for the turnout as everyone I knew was voting. Be it postal vote or returning home for the day they were all voting so overs seems silly not to bet.

Small bets then on - no donegal ne(went smallish in the end), no cyavan/monaghan(small), highest no % cyavan, highest yes % north city north.


If we are all being honest, betting makes politics and eurovision much more craic.

[ComradeCollie]

[Raoul Duke III]

#Walker4Prez

Current market for next US president is here.

I am going to get involved on Scott Walker @ 10s or better and here is the why.

Hilary Clinton will not be the next President of the United States.

• After a two-term president of one party, the electorate generally changes tack and elects in the other guys (Bush to Obama, Clinton to Bush, Eisenhower to Kennedy, Truman to Eisenhower). Reagan to Bush Snr is an outlier (but only after Jim Baker's dirty tricks team killed Dukakais - against Bush Snr's wishes and instincts).
• Her brand is toxic - people forget how divisive the Clintons are - a Hilary candidacy is a godsend to the GOP.
• She's not a winner. The only election she ever won was a safe Senate seat in NY and she managed to blow an almost-unlosable advantage against Obama in the '08 primary.
• She's a woman. I don't think America is ready for that.
• She's too old.
• Health issues.
• Bill. (although probably also her biggest asset)
• Dodgy record as Secretary of State with multiple freebie attack spots for the GOP (Benghazi, emailgate etc etc)
• She's too rich. Brand Clinton has been money-grubbing away since Bill departed the Oval Office.

Yet she will almost certainly be the Dem candidate and is currently trading around the evens mark - anyone taking this price should be carted off to Dundrum and locked in a padded cell for their own safety.

If the Republicans can put up literally anyone who can tie their own shoelaces against her, they will coast home in the electoral college.

So, who will the GOP pick? The current frontrunners are:

1. Jeb Bush
2. Marco Rubio
3. Scott Walker

and of the remaining putative candidates, there is not one that I can see being selected (unless the Tea Party lunatics take over the asylum). So forget them, they're only there for the lols.

I take Scott Walker to come out ahead of the other two chumps.

• The right combination of just-about-conservative-enough for the GOP and just-about-likeable-enough for the middle ground. He can energise the base (which Romney never did) while reaching out to the undecideds.
• Proven winner, 3 elections in 4 years in a purple state
• Excellent gubernatorial record - which has historically been a proven springboard to the White House (think Bush Jnr, Bill, Reagan, Carter)
• the right backstory
• the right age (Hilary will look ancient in comparison)
• the right religious background (mainstream enough, not too nutty)
• the right geography (Reps absolutely must scoop the midwest)
• doubt he has any skeletons rattling around in the cupboard, squeaky clean
• he really wants it imo

he's not a great speaker in the mould of an Obama but he pushes the right buttons - he'll be coached well

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmra5Xp_T10

Get on before Jeb gets taken apart and it becomes a Rubio vs Walker primary. Rubio is a lightweight.

I plan to keep nibbling away at him while he's in double-digit prices with the aim of sitting on a pile of tasty vouchers after Super Tuesday. Get On. If nothing else, you will get an excellent sweat and given that he will romp it in Iowa, you can always trade out for a handy profit.

[TheJiggaman]

I think it's a sure think that Hilary Clinton will get presidency tbh.

Backing Scott Walker now to lay after he becomes the Republican's primary candidate though sounds good.

[Raoul Duke III]

I think it's a sure think that Hilary Clinton will get presidency tbh.

why?