Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - It's the end of the world as we know it

[Raoul Duke III]

Is that where you get your Good Reads recommendations?

Absolutely. No point taking 'em from randomers.

[Raoul Duke III]

25 years in the can for SBF. The yanks do not fuck around.

[Lazare]

I feel like you didn't even read what I said!

I'm not saying AI will fully replace any "job" or "role" but it will replace people.
A job or role is a collection of tasks done by a person.
If a % of those tasks can be done by AI.
Then you need less people to do the remaining.

if you have 100 tasks being done by 10 people.
and 20 of those tasks can be done by AI.
You bet your last dollar that the business will restructure the roles so they only need 8 people.

I think you are assuming that the things you do for work will remain the same in future. This isn't true.
A lot of the things you do will be replaced by AI.

Take your "feedback from companies" is that your main strength is customer care and service.
That is likely a culimination of everyone who is front line being knowledgeable, approachable and responding to queries quickly.
There is a % of those queries that can be responded to by a knowledgeable, approachable and fast AI.

That leave a % left that you need humans for.

If your boss doesn't react, he'll be left behind by other companies that can provide same for cheaper and use the extra cash for innovation/investment/growth.

Yeah sorry man, a lot of that post was aimed more at Hitch.

Some good points very well made.

[Lao Lao]

I blame Zuut

GJleYeCXoAAzWGV?format=jpg&name=medium.jpg

By the looks of it, Frank's son Ziggy was piloting the ship

[Opr]

Wired dropped a mad article in which they said its possible to find people who visited Epstein island.

Nearly 200 mobile devices of people who visited Jeffrey Epstein’s notorious “pedophile island” in the years prior to his death left an invisible trail of data pointing back to their own homes and offices. Maps of these visitations generated by a troubled international data broker with defense industry ties

They don't though name them in the article but instead drop all these clues on how to go about finding the data.

WIRED discovered several so-called Vista reports while examining Pinnacle’s publicly accessible code. While the specific URLs for the reports are difficult to find, Google’s web crawlers were able to locate at least two other publicly accessible Vista reports: one geofencing the Westfield Mall of the Netherlands and another targeting Saipan-Ledo Park in El Paso, Texas.

Jeffrey Epstein's Island Visitors Exposed by Data Broker | WIRED (archive.is)

[Lao Lao]

Interested to hear Lao Lao's take on how this affects global trade.

From a global point of view, it shouldn't have any real impact as Baltimore isn't a major port for containers - It wouldn't make the top 50 globally.

From a US point of view, it will have some impact but the overall trade and economy shouldn't be really be effected to badly.

For Baltimore and Maryland, it could have a huge impact, especially the longer it stays closed. The port of Baltimore employees just over 15K workers directly and there is probably another 140K jobs associated with it.

Baltimore and Maryland has steadily lost jobs and unemployment is up over the last few years but the port was a constant. Companies can close down or relocate but the port couldn't be moved.

The volume of containers it handles should be able to be absorbed by relatively near ports of New York/New Jersey, Norfolk, Philly & Wilmington - There will be extra costs associated with this but it should be manageable.

The real big issues will be around cars/trucks, etc as Baltimore is the largest port on the USEC for auto's coming in. You need a lot of space for this as you can't stack them on top of each other like you can containers. A lot of that business may have to route down to Brunswick in Georgia (near Savannah) which is a quite the trek from Baltimore

And throw in the inconvenience factor. I think I read that just over 30K cars used to use the bridge every day. All that traffic now needs to find a new route.

Poor Baltimore - They just can't get a break - First, it's over run by drugs, then they have prostitutes dying in containers, then the schools are failing the kids, then they have corrupt politicians, then there is a serial killer killing homeless people and now their main bridge collapses...

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Yeah sorry man, a lot of that post was aimed more at Hitch.

Some good points very well made.

https://mdowling-functionflow.github.io/laz/

[ComradeCollie]

Not going to get in on the AI debate, though I do wonder at how I now rate Taylor Swift higher than The Beatles, and whether I've dumbed down or not.

[ComradeCollie]

Hollowed out household stuff not bad I would think.

Back in my live poker playing days I kept a float in an old VCR in a cupboard. Didn't think anyone would bother nicking it as it was all DVD players at that stage.

Or maybe ..like "No country for Old Men" where Lewellyn hid the case in a duct (still irritates me a bit he never checked through it on the off chance that the drug money might have a tracker of some sort)

Now it's loose change in a bowl lol

I used to keep poker cash in books. I remember being embarrassed when one of my brothers asked to borrow one of my Trotsky books, and €500 fell out. Must have been there for four years.

[Lazare]

https://mdowling-functionflow.github.io/laz/

[Solksjaer!]

2 Dusty Episodes back into the WIRE and I'm back in the world of Baltimore . No subtitles needed this time

[dinekes]

2 Dusty Episodes back into the WIRE and I'm back in the world of Baltimore . No subtitles needed this time

Not yet ..,wait till Snoop turns up ..You be reaching fo dat reee..mote like a mufoo.. she be gone broh

[Mellor]

I feel like you didn't even read what I said!

I'm not saying AI will fully replace any "job" or "role" but it will replace people.
A job or role is a collection of tasks done by a person.
If a % of those tasks can be done by AI.
Then you need less people to do the remaining.

if you have 100 tasks being done by 10 people.
and 20 of those tasks can be done by AI.
You bet your last dollar that the business will restructure the roles so they only need 8 people.

I think you are assuming that the things you do for work will remain the same in future. This isn't true.
A lot of the things you do will be replaced by AI.

Take your "feedback from companies" is that your main strength is customer care and service.
That is likely a culimination of everyone who is front line being knowledgeable, approachable and responding to queries quickly.
There is a % of those queries that can be responded to by a knowledgeable, approachable and fast AI.

That leave a % left that you need humans for.

If your boss doesn't react, he'll be left behind by other companies that can provide same for cheaper and use the extra cash for innovation/investment/growth.

I agree with all of that. But I would offer an additional counterpoint along the same lines.

Taking at the % of current tasks replaceable by AI and equating that to a % reduction in roles is only accurate if the total output by the company remains static.
And given we’re assume AI integrates every where, there’s slim chance that is the case.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

The mid-Summer release of GPT4.5 will probably be the end of many jobs, although it could take a decade to work though the system. From the scant hints available it seems to just have that noticeable intelligence bump into greatness that will enable agents to carry out quite complex tasks. We're talking about agents that will be better than the average good worker at most intelligence tasks. To be honest I think it's catastrophic for business schools / business careers in particular as so much of business is just doing things manually that we wish computers would do.

[dobby]

Been fun catching up with tylerdurden94 he's still rocking and still cool as fuck

[Opr]

The mid-Summer release of GPT4.5 will probably be the end of many jobs, although it could take a decade to work though the system. From the scant hints available it seems to just have that noticeable intelligence bump into greatness that will enable agents to carry out quite complex tasks. We're talking about agents that will be better than the average good worker at most intelligence tasks. To be honest I think it's catastrophic for business schools / business careers in particular as so much of business is just doing things manually that we wish computers would do.

Yeah I think that is the point that many people miss, this isn't GPT getting a little bit better. It changes the game completely depending on how good it gets. People quickly realised that to automate part of a a human job you need to string together lets say 10 things in order to do a complex task. The problem so far is that if your base model is lets say only 95% accurate you get this compounding error effect throughout the system where 95^10 means you end up with a system only giving you some level of reliability about 60% of the time which is almost useless. Its why the whole agent ecosystem seemed to die off. If the base model gets to a high enough level of accuracy all that changes,

[Opr]

This is a fun demo - Voice-to-Voice Demo • Hume AI

It claims to have a model which has been trained to recognise emotion in speech. It is called EVI - Empathic Voice Interface

[Opr]

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Jesus.

[Opr]

DUP Statement | DUP (mydup.com)

"The Party Chairman has received a letter from Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP confirming that he has been charged with allegations of an historical nature and indicating that he is stepping down as Leader of the Democratic Unionist Party with immediate effect.

In accordance with the Party Rules, the Party Officers have suspended Mr Donaldson from membership, pending the outcome of a judicial process.

The Party Officers have this morning unanimously appointed Mr Gavin Robinson MP as the Interim Party Leader."

[balfejohn]

Ulster says No
Pity Jeffrey didn’t give the poor kids a chance

[Theresa]

Yeah I think that is the point that many people miss, this isn't GPT getting a little bit better. It changes the game completely depending on how good it gets. People quickly realised that to automate part of a a human job you need to string together lets say 10 things in order to do a complex task. The problem so far is that if your base model is lets say only 95% accurate you get this compounding error effect throughout the system where 95^10 means you end up with a system only giving you some level of reliability about 60% of the time which is almost useless. Its why the whole agent ecosystem seemed to die off. If the base model gets to a high enough level of accuracy all that changes,

For it all to be truly wondrous they’ll need to start solving the memory problem.

Gurley nailed it in the recent pod though if any company has the data head start it’s Apple.

Think about how much about knowledge about you is on your phone. An accurate LLM being able to remember things could be so powerful on your handset.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

For it all to be truly wondrous they’ll need to start solving the memory problem.

Gurley nailed it in the recent pod though if any company has the data head start it’s Apple.

Think about how much about knowledge about you is on your phone. An accurate LLM being able to remember things could be so powerful on your handset.

Altman was talking about that also as the key thing they need to sort. Think their main next model has 256,000 tokens, but I guess they will also sneak out something like a 10m token model in the near future as the innate tech is already there.

It's the dirty little secret of our own model. That it is pretty much perfect at carrying out its task. Beyond perfect really. And the only thing we did was use the full 128,000 tokens to put full context in rather than a crappy RAG retrieval search model. As in, our model feels like a big progression, but it's all down to that one simple thing.

[Lazare]

Did U Paedo?

[Solksjaer!]

His daughter and niece. Throw in incest to the equation. Reckon he might fling himself in front of the next express train . With a name like 'Donaldson . I'd take the train.

[Lazare]

Bible thumpers are so often wronguns.

[Denny Crane]

Are there any famous people that aren't paedophiles?

[DeadParrot]

Jaysus, the quality in hilan on Capel St has fallen off a cliff.
Bland tasteless noodles, cold miso soup.
Really disappointing

[Raoul Duke III]

Jaysus, the quality in hilan on Capel St has fallen off a cliff.
Bland tasteless noodles, cold miso soup.
Really disappointing

Funny I was next door to there yesterday in Aobaba and thought it was pretty average too (after previous good visits).

[Raoul Duke III]

Are there any famous people that aren't paedophiles?

Trump

[eamonhonda]

Jaysus, the quality in hilan on Capel St has fallen off a cliff.
Bland tasteless noodles, cold miso soup.
Really disappointing

Have you tried King Skewer, across from M&L, great Chinese bbq

[DeadParrot]

Funny I was next door to there yesterday in Aobaba and thought it was pretty average too (after previous good visits).

Having a kid in tow really fucks up your choices. Should have been a heads up that hilan was the only place that was empty enough to take us.
fancied trying Krewe to introduce deadpigeon to some gumbo.
I miss tante zoes

[Raoul Duke III]

The Zone of Interest is a tough watch about 'the banality of evil' (to quote Hannah Arendt). Very clever, very disturbing and not one overt act of violence to be seen.

[DeadParrot]

Bible thumpers are so often wronguns.

.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Having a kid in tow really fucks up your choices. Should have been a heads up that hilan was the only place that was empty enough to take us.
fancied trying Krewe to introduce deadpigeon to some gumbo.
I miss tante zoes

Lee's Charming Noodles is very decent on Parnell Street.

[Dice75]

Moving Day

[Denny Crane]

I saw it started an hour late - what time did it wrap up at?

Actually it was a get to X amount of chips so i guess its a variable finish time

Thanks for this post. I'm so out of the loop I didn't even know that format existed.
I busted the main in the first 30 mins. and tilt registered a turbo sat. It was only at the break I saw your post and realised I was playing the wrong strategy

Won three flips and I was the second seat (leaving 93.75% of the seats tbd).

[Denny Crane]

I'm in the middle of moving house and had no business playing tbh. Thankfully they let me take the cash rather than the seat. My urge to play poker satiated for another year, back to scratch, and I could go back to helping my long-suffering girlfriend.

I was late getting to the main, hadn't had a chance to change, looking pretty dishevelled. After I sat down I realised my clothes had blood splatters after splitting my finger earlier while moving furniture. Solid table image imo.

[Raoul Duke III]

I'm in the middle of moving house and had no business playing tbh. Thankfully they let me take the cash rather than the seat. My urge to play poker satiated for another year, back to scratch, and I could go back to helping my long-suffering girlfriend.

I was late getting to the main, hadn't had a chance to change, looking pretty dishevelled. After I sat down I realised my clothes had blood splatters after splitting my finger earlier while moving furniture. Solid table image imo.

I'd say that would only put you in the middle of the range for general weirdness at a poker table.

[Wombatman]

The mid-Summer release of GPT4.5 will probably be the end of many jobs, although it could take a decade to work though the system. From the scant hints available it seems to just have that noticeable intelligence bump into greatness that will enable agents to carry out quite complex tasks. We're talking about agents that will be better than the average good worker at most intelligence tasks. To be honest I think it's catastrophic for business schools / business careers in particular as so much of business is just doing things manually that we wish computers would do.

We won't see the revolutionary change you are predicting. Big organisations change slowly. Legacy systems, processes, brains, infrastructure etc. take years to transform. Your own industry is ironically a perfect example of this, using a KT model that is 200 years old.

LOL at the idea that human intelligence is somehow superior to AI. We have been using Google to solve arguments in pubs for the last 20 years and that was before Gen AI. The Alpha Go documentary displayed AI's ability to take optimization and problem solving to a level that humans aren't capable of.

Don't panic. Marvel at the wonder. Just like when the wireless was invented

[Wombatman]

Listened to an Irish radio show in the last year where the panel were talking about the raise of AI. On of the panel members was a gen AI bot. Best contributor on the show by a good ways.

[balfejohn]

Catos Revenge. 4.30 Fairyhouse
good ew bet

[Raoul Duke III]

Catos Revenge. 4.30 Fairyhouse
good ew bet

Did Cato ever get his revenge on Clouseau though?

25/1 in the muck.

[Solksjaer!]

Whatever happened to Annette17 ?

(And banana bread )

[ComradeCollie]

Whatever happened to Annette17 ?

(And banana bread )

If you meant 15, seems she went into makeup youtube vids

[Raoul Duke III]

Fair play to Dice for the IO spin and sounds like he got Diced with his JJ vs A7.

Any more IPBers still in?

[Lazare]

Fair play to Dice for the IO spin and sounds like he got Diced with his JJ vs A7.

Any more IPBers still in?

Where are you following updates?

[Raoul Duke III]

Where are you following updates?

Eh..Dicetext.

[Opr]

Where are you following updates?

There is a livestream on the PokerStars channel on twitch/YouTube.

Doddy mentioned an app called Poker Lens which is updated regularly.

[Opr]

Emad Mostaque is a really interesting person within the AI space. He was CEO of Stability AI which created some of the best Open Source models. He resigned from the role last week. He gave an interview yesterday in which he talked about how he feels he can have limited impact on the trajectory of things in his current role and feels the window of time to create a fair landscape for AI development is narrowing. He thinks every government should currently have an AI minster and should be looing towards training national models.

The article below sems to suggest he was doing his best to not let ClosedAI capture the space. It's unclear if he is really bad at business or was really clever in bringing in a piles of cash to burn on creating models he had no intention of commercialising and instead always planned to give them away. He thinks by end of next year you will be able to train a current GPT level model for around $1000.

Emad Mostaque, the AI Industry’s Robin Hood? (moroccoworldnews.com)

Leading business outlets like Forbes have shown how Mostaque used over $100 million in funding from investors to create free open-source models which, while being fundamentally unprofitable for the company, democratized the generative AI space like no other.

It appears that Mostaque knowingly welcomed millions in funding from venture capitalists and investors while knowing it was unlikely they would ever see a penny in return. This of course makes him an outright villain in the eyes of the highly corporatized AI ecosystem. Again and again Mostaque tried to garner new funding, but the secret was out: Stability AI’s tools were made to benefit the general public, not the company’s investors

[dobby]

Poker Lens app for updates.

All dealers have a tablet at the table and do visual chip counts at the break. They're not allowed touch the stacks so it's not always 100% correct but never far off. Break every 2 hours in the main.

For anyone looking for a late punt, the €200 mini open looks like it'll go huge. 500k gtd and from a quick guess at flights so far, it's going to go well over that.

A day 1 is currently in progress with more day 1s later today. Day 2 tomorrow. They play down to 8% of each flight and 15% get paid, €500 min cash

[dobby]

Parky still in the mix with 32 left in the main.

And with a generational divide, young guns Simon Wilson and Aidan Quinlan still rocking.

Fingers crossed for an Irish winner.

[ComradeCollie]

24 hours of crazy diarrhoea looks like it's resolving itself. Still bollixed from having to go to the jax every hour.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

We won't see the revolutionary change you are predicting. Big organisations change slowly. Legacy systems, processes, brains, infrastructure etc. take years to transform. Your own industry is ironically a perfect example of this, using a KT model that is 200 years old.

LOL at the idea that human intelligence is somehow superior to AI. We have been using Google to solve arguments in pubs for the last 20 years and that was before Gen AI. The Alpha Go documentary displayed AI's ability to take optimization and problem solving to a level that humans aren't capable of.

Don't panic. Marvel at the wonder. Just like when the wireless was invented

nah, organisations are obsessed with GenAI in a way they haven't been obsessed with something since the dawn of the internet. Its very different to a lot of other techs.

[ComradeCollie]

nah, organisations are obsessed with GenAI in a way they haven't been obsessed with something since the dawn of the internet. Its very different to a lot of other techs.

Lol, we all see the world through the interactions we have with it.

Doubt you even noticed it's 'Trans Visibility Day'

[Theresa]

Lol, we all see the world through the interactions we have with it.

Wat.

[Lazare]

On the first night of the clocks going forward I eat dinner the next day. Acclimatising innit.

Still preppin here.

[Raoul Duke III]

Ollie Boyce still swinging in the IO, there's a blast from the past. Hope he takes it down.

[balfejohn]

Daily present 5.00 fairyhouse not a tip just a fancy

marelly 2.58 cork is a tip

[Solksjaer!]

Ollie Boyce still swinging in the IO, there's a blast from the past. Hope he takes it down.

Wow , fair play ollieboy , take it down.