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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Have no intuitive skills for these. But surely its just -
SPOILER...multiplication of odds.
So A chance of normal x normal = 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16
B chance of normal x normal x normal = 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 = 0.21
so go with B.
SPOILER60% chance of tainted apple in A, if so then 4 left with 2 tainted so 50% chance of tainted apple x the 60% = 30%
B little more complexLast edited by dinekes; 21-07-21, 15:28.
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Question for those of you that know more about DIY than I do - so at least 50% of you I'm sure!
If I flip all circuit breakers at the main 'fuse box' in my house, this 100% shuts off power everywhere, right? I can then attempt to remove a broken smart heating unit connected to live electricity wires and install a replacement, without being electrocuted - right?
I am somewhat confident of being about to do it (as I wouldn't have to identify the right wires, that's already done for the installed but dead unit, which I'd take note of before installing the replacement and ensuring the wires go to the same connections), just need to know I'm not going to fry myself....
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Originally posted by 6starpool View Post
I have an ongoing inner monologue, as I thought most people did until I heard there were people who didn't. I don't believe I have any ongoing anxiety issues.
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostYesterday's quiz was too easy, let's see how well people do today:
There are two bowls of five apples, one of five red, one of five green. Some of the apples have been poisoned. The way the poison works (it's not very strong), if you eat one poisoned apple you are fine, with no symptoms, but if you eat two you die.
(So just to make it clear, if you eat three apples in this order Posion, Normal, Poison - you would die after the third apple).
If you must choose one of the following two options, which gives you a higher chance of survival?
A. Eat two green apples (2 out of 5 are normal)
B. Eat three red apples (3 out of 5 are normal)
I would be interested in peoples answer using intuition as well as working it outSPOILERBoth options are the same - 70% survivial i think, I'd instinctively go for the one where you eat 3 with 2 poison apples if I didn't think about it.
You can solve this without math if you don't need the actual probability, in both scenarios you can split the groups into 2 and 3 and quickly figure out that the probabilities of dying are the same.
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Apropos of nothing, purely because I'm sitting here having a beer and killing an hour (it's a hard life)
I have found that I post very little over the last few years and it's progressively reducing. That in itself isn't an issue obviously, though the fact that it expands into general interactions may well be.
I've found that as I age I find that actually I don't have any particularly insightful opinions on things, or better, I've no opinions that I feel the need to espouse to others and no interest in bringing people around to my way of thinking.
I read here a lot obviously but very rarely feel the need to chime in as regardless of whether I agree or disagree I'm perfectly happy not having my opinions validated or criticised. I'm not concerned about criticism but often I'm just 'not bothered' in having a back and forth.
Perhaps part of it is that being away a lot of my frames of reference aren't valid or relevant to what's happening there but I think a greater part of it is that I just have no interest in swaying or being swayed by others.
maybe I'm just getting very lazy and need a kick to re-engage myself
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Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
SPOILERBoth options are the same - 70% survivial i think, I'd instinctively go for the one where you eat 3 with 2 poison apples if I didn't think about it.
You can solve this without math if you don't need the actual probability, in both scenarios you can split the groups into 2 and 3 and quickly figure out that the probabilities of dying are the same.
SPOILERI had 40% death on B
Check my maths
In B you eat 3 (3 normal but 2 poisoned)
3 scenarios
1. where you pick poisoned apple first
First apple has 40% chance of being poisoned
Second apple (now 4 left) now has 25% chance of being poisoned so that's 10% death
2. Where 1st apple is poisoned and second apple is normal so you go to third apple
First apple is 40% poisoned
Second apple normal (now 3 left with 1 poisoned)
Third apple has 33.33% chance of being poisoned x 40% is 13.333 % chance of death
3. Where 1st apple is normal
second apple (4 left and 2 poisoned) will be 50% poisoned
third apple (now 3 left and 1 poisoned) so 33.33% chance of poisoned apple x 50% = 16.66%
Add these up for 40%
What am I missing here.Last edited by dinekes; 21-07-21, 16:24.
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dinekes
SPOILER
You have correct identified that PP is 10%
PP is effectively PPN, though you don't live to do the N.
The only other possible combinations
are
PNP
PNN
NNP
NPP
NPN
NNN
The two I've bolded kill you.
By definition if PPN is a 10% chance as you've worked out, then PNP and NPP must also be 10% chances.
It's like a treble in horseracing where the return is the same regardless of which order they win in. I think it's the same thing.
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Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
SPOILERBoth options are the same - 70% survivial i think, I'd instinctively go for the one where you eat 3 with 2 poison apples if I didn't think about it.
You can solve this without math if you don't need the actual probability, in both scenarios you can split the groups into 2 and 3 and quickly figure out that the probabilities of dying are the same.SPOILERWell done! Today's was harder and this is the first correct answer
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Originally posted by Iago View PostApropos of nothing, purely because I'm sitting here having a beer and killing an hour (it's a hard life)
I have found that I post very little over the last few years and it's progressively reducing. That in itself isn't an issue obviously, though the fact that it expands into general interactions may well be.
I've found that as I age I find that actually I don't have any particularly insightful opinions on things, or better, I've no opinions that I feel the need to espouse to others and no interest in bringing people around to my way of thinking.
I read here a lot obviously but very rarely feel the need to chime in as regardless of whether I agree or disagree I'm perfectly happy not having my opinions validated or criticised. I'm not concerned about criticism but often I'm just 'not bothered' in having a back and forth.
Perhaps part of it is that being away a lot of my frames of reference aren't valid or relevant to what's happening there but I think a greater part of it is that I just have no interest in swaying or being swayed by others.
maybe I'm just getting very lazy and need a kick to re-engage myself
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Originally posted by ionapaul View PostQuestion for those of you that know more about DIY than I do - so at least 50% of you I'm sure!
If I flip all circuit breakers at the main 'fuse box' in my house, this 100% shuts off power everywhere, right? I can then attempt to remove a broken smart heating unit connected to live electricity wires and install a replacement, without being electrocuted - right?
I am somewhat confident of being about to do it (as I wouldn't have to identify the right wires, that's already done for the installed but dead unit, which I'd take note of before installing the replacement and ensuring the wires go to the same connections), just need to know I'm not going to fry myself....I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by hotspur View PostThis may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
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Originally posted by Iago View PostApropos of nothing, purely because I'm sitting here having a beer and killing an hour (it's a hard life)
I have found that I post very little over the last few years and it's progressively reducing. That in itself isn't an issue obviously, though the fact that it expands into general interactions may well be.
I've found that as I age I find that actually I don't have any particularly insightful opinions on things, or better, I've no opinions that I feel the need to espouse to others and no interest in bringing people around to my way of thinking.
I read here a lot obviously but very rarely feel the need to chime in as regardless of whether I agree or disagree I'm perfectly happy not having my opinions validated or criticised. I'm not concerned about criticism but often I'm just 'not bothered' in having a back and forth.
Perhaps part of it is that being away a lot of my frames of reference aren't valid or relevant to what's happening there but I think a greater part of it is that I just have no interest in swaying or being swayed by others.
maybe I'm just getting very lazy and need a kick to re-engage myself
But what I've started to notice is if I'm talking to someone I dont necessarily agree with. I wont even argue or debate the point. I'll just say, yep you're right. And kill the conversation. It's been immeasurably better for my mental wellbeing.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Postdinekes
SPOILER
You have correct identified that PP is 10%
PP is effectively PPN, though you don't live to do the N.
The only other possible combinations
are
PNP
PNN
NNP
NPP
NPN
NNN
The two I've bolded kill you.
By definition if PPN is a 10% chance as you've worked out, then PNP and NPP must also be 10% chances.
It's like a treble in horseracing where the return is the same regardless of which order they win in. I think it's the same thing.
Very clear thanks, nifty little representation.
Got too bogged down in x of y =
Can see the glaring error in my method now.
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Originally posted by hotspur View Post
I was questioned before about how I think - which sense do I use, and I use hearing - hence monologue. The person said people have to think in senses, but that there was an exception, he didn't get into it though but sounded interesting.
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
SPOILERWell done! Today's was harder and this is the first correct answer
If there is a disease where usually 0.1% of the population get it, and you test positive in a test with a 99% accuracy in saying who does have the disease and incorrectly identify 1% of people who don't have the disease. What chance is there that you have the disease when you test positive? What about after 2 tests?
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I think I have an inner “half-dialogue” rather than a monologue. My inner monologue will be talking away but I’m also, not quite hearing, but sensing the reaction of another person. The other parties to the conversations are real people that I know, but who exactly, depends on the topic.
As I write this, I’m mentally conversing with hotspur, if I’m thinking about pensions and investments I’m addressing V4V, etc.
I don’t “hear” their responses but I often “sense” their reaction to what I’m “saying”. Somehow, sometimes, they seem to raise questions or point out flaws in my thinking…
This happens for not quite everything I think about but most of the time. How apparent it is to me that this is happening, waxes and wanes over time but I’m pretty sure they’re always there.
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[QUOTE=dinekes;n1698101]Re anxiety
First became aware of it in 2016.
To rewind a little first. Poker "career" had declined and by late 2014 I was essentially unemployed and pretty much unemployable. Spent 5 months applying for jobs and living an extremely frugal completely stripped back existence. It really focused the mind on money management and choices on consumption. I read loads and tuned into this Buddhist lad on youtube. Some of what he said made perfect sense but a lot of their teachings seem to be achievable mostly only if you are living in that monastic style and not balls deep in complexity. Ecxcercised loads and walked everywhere to save on petrol and all in all felt pretty good about things albeit with a bit of worry about getting an income going.
Eventually got an interview for a sales job.
Basically your bog standard cold calling set up (energy)I had done this before as a sole trader selling promotional gifts so while I would have preferred something else beggars cant be chooses and accepted their offer.
Not having worked for anyone in a long time It jarred a bit bring under scrutiny and having to make reports and update manager and all that stuff however I did quite well in sales.
#
sorry will finish later
I found it increasingly difficult however to develop the motivation to cold call. The ever increasing demands on ridiculous unproductive reporting coupled with con calls (shudder) every morning was taking its toll.
The anxiety I was feeling then was in my chest and bottom of throat. GP said I was burnt out and to take a month off
On my return however despite having my best month ever I decided to leave and set up on my own. Couldn't take the BS of the place anymore
The anxiety is still there in my chest but not as bad as working for that company. It feels like if you could just take one big breath it would clear it but it doesn't.
I have read that once it settles in it's difficult to shift it.
I have experienced it before interviews and some social occasions but it was always transitory
Not even in the depths of a 20k downswing did I feel it.
When I'm working or exercising or totally absorbed in something it dissipates to a point where I'm not aware of it but it always returns.
Alcohol obviously doent help.
Not having clear goals contributes somewhat but it's more than all of that too.
Think I damaged myself working in that environment, a cumulative effect of prolonged exposure to stressors in a toxic environment.
Was actually looking ar doing up a CV when I saw the posts about this. Just typing out what I am currently doing I realised how much I am actually contributing to my other job (part time)
Think I need something that I can fully absorb myself in where it doesnt even feel like work.
Had an even longer one done up but lost it somehow
Tl/dr
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Hmm... was at the dentist earlier today and got the below email a short while ago.... what my play here?
Hi there , We have been informed that someone who has been at the practice this week tested positive for covid19 . They were asymptotic we were informed today and are all getting tests done today . There is an unlikely chance they you have come into contact as dental practices have been dealing with infectious diseases and have training in infection control but just to be on the safe side. Regards XXX
No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Originally posted by pokerhand View PostHmm... was at the dentist earlier today and got the below email a short while ago.... what my play here?
Hi there , We have been informed that someone who has been at the practice this week tested positive for covid19 . They were asymptotic we were informed today and are all getting tests done today . There is an unlikely chance they you have come into contact as dental practices have been dealing with infectious diseases and have training in infection control but just to be on the safe side. Regards XXX
If negative, great. If positive, hole yourself up for a couple weeks.
Its actually a bit worrying you need to ask this when we are 15+ months into this but sure at least you sought advice.
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Originally posted by dobby View Post
Isolate now, book a test and isolate until its returned negative obvs.
If negative, great. If positive, hole yourself up for a couple weeks.
Its actually a bit worrying you need to ask this when we are 15+ months into this but sure at least you sought advice.No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Originally posted by pokerhand View Post
Not really, as I am double jabbed, so what the rule in that case?
Unfortunately,
I think you now have to isolate. As you can carry the virus, even if you can't easily catch it yourself. I definitely wouldn't go near work as that might count as something like gross negligence in the mind of HR if something went wrong. But I wouldn't necessarily be too bothered about isolating apart from that."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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So that's all very overcautious. But there's just no upside and only potentially catastrophic downside if you go near work.
What if they e.g. try to trace a bubble and find a link from dentist to your work. HR will have a kitten. It's very unlikely but there's just zero upside to you to taking the risk.
"We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by pokerhand View Post
Not really, as I am double jabbed, so what the rule in that case?
If you are a close contact but are vaccinated.(unless it's just been done, the time periods are on the HSE website)
You don't need to take a test or restrict your movements.
You have not been even informed that you are a close contact yet. Just that someone had tested positive.
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Was reading the guidance, I don't think I am the close contact. By the sound of it, it is the dentist and nurses that are close contacts. So no need to restrict movements unless they get a positive test.No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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Originally posted by pokerhand View Post
Not really, as I am double jabbed, so what the rule in that case?
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Originally posted by eamonhonda View PostWe would all be in and out of consistent isolation if you were to isolate every time you were a building that a positive person had been in the same week.
Supermarkets and the likes wouldnt be able to stay open."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostYesterday's quiz was too easy, let's see how well people do today:
There are two bowls of five apples, one of five red, one of five green. Some of the apples have been poisoned. The way the poison works (it's not very strong), if you eat one poisoned apple you are fine, with no symptoms, but if you eat two you die.
(So just to make it clear, if you eat three apples in this order Posion, Normal, Poison - you would die after the third apple).
If you must choose one of the following two options, which gives you a higher chance of survival?
A. Eat two green apples (2 out of 5 are normal)
B. Eat three red apples (3 out of 5 are normal)
I would be interested in peoples answer using intuition as well as working it out
On the old poker forum, there was a huge Monty Hall thread where some people insisted that that was 50/50 ether way. Somebody used a 100 door version example to make it clear.
As for the apples. Haven't read other replies yet
SPOILER
It makes no difference. There are same number of combinations. Selecting 2 from 5 is the same as selection 3 from 5.
Bowl A
10 combos (5 *4 / 2)
3 combos where you pick 2 poisonous apples
Bowl B
10 combos (5 *4 / 2)
3 combos where you pick both poisonous with each of the clean ones.
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Originally posted by dinekes View Post
That's gas
SPOILERI had 40% death on B
Check my maths
In B you eat 3 (3 normal but 2 poisoned)
3 scenarios
1. where you pick poisoned apple first
First apple has 40% chance of being poisoned
Second apple (now 4 left) now has 25% chance of being poisoned so that's 10% death
2. Where 1st apple is poisoned and second apple is normal so you go to third apple
First apple is 40% poisoned
Second apple normal (now 3 left with 1 poisoned)
Third apple has 33.33% chance of being poisoned x 40% is 13.333 % chance of death
3. Where 1st apple is normal
second apple (4 left and 2 poisoned) will be 50% poisoned
third apple (now 3 left and 1 poisoned) so 33.33% chance of poisoned apple x 50% = 16.66%
Add these up for 40%
What am I missing here.
When first is poisoned, second apple is normal 75%, need to factor that in too. So it's 40% x 13.33% = 10%
Similarly, there was a 60% chance on that first was normal. So it's 60% x 16.66% = 10%
Or as AJ said, once know the first is 10%, all combos are equal.
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Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
Love this stuff. To mess with instinct here is another.
If there is a disease where usually 0.1% of the population get it, and you test positive in a test with a 99% accuracy in saying who does have the disease and incorrectly identify 1% of people who don't have the disease. What chance is there that you have the disease when you test positive? What about after 2 tests?
SPOILER
The first positive test means about 9% chance you have covid. Second test is 91%.
I think this works better if the incidence is changes to 1%, or accuracy increased to 99.9
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Sure the test results are independent of previous results?
1 test to a million tests is 99%
Kinda a martingale fallacy in action?
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostI know I already said it, but have watched more now, and it just keeps getting better and better. If you haven't watched Clarkson's Farm its a definite watch. Top class."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Clarkson is the genuinely charming star. Like there's no way you won't like him by the end of this.
The shop and his product names are pure annoying clarkson.
Caleb, the farm manager, his missus, yer man with the voice are all infinitely better.
Still a pretty enjoyable watchPeople say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21
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Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
It's the supporting class you like more.
The shop and his product names are pure annoying clarkson.
Caleb, the farm manager, his missus, yer man with the voice are all infinitely better.
Still a pretty enjoyable watch
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Clarkson is the genuinely charming star. Like there's no way you won't like him by the end of this.
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Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
It's the supporting class you like more.
The shop and his product names are pure annoying clarkson.
Caleb, the farm manager, his missus, yer man with the voice are all infinitely better.
Still a pretty enjoyable watch
I fully assume he is a prick of the highest order, but in that show he's just great. All these little 'look how smart I am' fuckups, seems like a person who knows how to poke fun at himself. His rants at the administrators ring like rehashing old jokes rather than his real current feelings. He seems to genuinely care about the farm as a part of society, as almost a legacy project that he would like to be his mark on the earth - rather than a fast car."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil
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Originally posted by 6starpool View Post
Ya I agree with this. Only a few episodes in, and enjoying it, but you always get the sense that Clarkson is always looking for the 'sledgehammer to crack a nut' approach because that's what he always does. The wall builder is mad, I genuinely can't understand 95% of his on screen dialogue.No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast.
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ionapaul if you look at the fuseboard (assuming tou have two long rows of fuses on it), 2 of the top row of 10 will kill you but 3 of the bottom row of 13 will also kill you. You may switch 16 off in total. Let us know when you plan to replace the item and we can get GAB to run a book.
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Originally posted by Dice75 View Postionapaul if you look at the fuseboard (assuming tou have two long rows of fuses on it), 2 of the top row of 10 will kill you but 3 of the bottom row of 13 will also kill you. You may switch 16 off in total. Let us know when you plan to replace the item and we can get GAB to run a book.
Perhaps we'll have our 1st IPB into space .
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Originally posted by Hectorjelly View PostYesterday's quiz was too easy, let's see how well people do today:
There are two bowls of five apples, one of five red, one of five green. Some of the apples have been poisoned. The way the poison works (it's not very strong), if you eat one poisoned apple you are fine, with no symptoms, but if you eat two you die.
(So just to make it clear, if you eat three apples in this order Posion, Normal, Poison - you would die after the third apple).
If you must choose one of the following two options, which gives you a higher chance of survival?
A. Eat two green apples (2 out of 5 are normal)
B. Eat three red apples (3 out of 5 are normal)
I would be interested in peoples answer using intuition as well as working it outSPOILERI think you’re better eating the two apples. I think the green road has a 30% chance of death, the red road has a 50% chance, which chimes with intuition which suggests the less apples you eat when some are poisonous the better!
workings
60% chance * 50% chance = 30% chance of death I.e. 3/5 and you have to lose again a 2/4 coin flip to be poisoned
for the second choices are equally (bad and nice) so 50% chance of death.
NNN - ✅
NBBLast edited by Goodluck2me; 22-07-21, 11:18.
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Genuine questions for the gopro Meditators. Does a fart/belch/hiccup take you out of it for a second or two. I expect not. However what if you are deep in this sate and you are jerked out of it suddenly. Does it have a negative physical/mental effect? Experiences of this? I’m presuming there is a hit in this regard. With this in mind , do you lock yourself away somewhere if you are going deep ? What are the DOs/Don’t to protect yourself in general.
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Originally posted by DeadParrot View PostSure the test results are independent of previous results?
1 test to a million tests is 99%
Kinda a martingale fallacy in action?
If you take 1 test, there’s a 1 in 100 chance it’s a false positive.
If you take 3 tests, all positive. There’s a 1 in 100^3 chance they were all false positives. 1 in a million.
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