This seems a little misguided
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Went on a deep dive into Irish activist twitters response to #carrigaline and the blm protests.
really depressing stuff just extremist race baiting grifters on both sides. The right wing openly racist ones (rightly) aren’t given airtime on our national broadcaster but some of the left wing ones are
NGO sector needs a machete taken to it as part of the covid budget adjustments, 6BN a year there for the taking, just eliminate the duplication first and go from there
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostSpeaking of LBJ, here is a classic, possibly untrue, lesson in political tactics:
Lyndon Johnson used to tell a story about a candidate for County Commissioner in East Texas. He's falling far behind, and so he asks his campaign manager what he should do. "Well," his campaign manager advises, "why don't you say your opponent likes to fuck pigs?" The candidate protests, "But he doesn't, does he?" And the campaign manager answers, "No, but let's see the sonofabitch deny it!"
'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
For example - Lenin was a mass murderer but his tomb is still open to the public. Should he be turfed out of his mausoleum in Red Square and chucked in the Moscow river?
As for getting the plaque changed in Bristol, apparently this has been attempted over the last few years but the council has been moving very slowly.
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So the Central Bank released mortgage lending data for 2019 here:
Section 3.1 has a table providing information for the average applicant (couples included) that is very eye opening indeed. The average FTB in Dublin:
average income = 89k
age = 34
deposit = 79k
LTI = 3.4
29 yr mortgage
LTV = 80%
Now, leaving aside the fact that the average deposit is nearly equal to yearly gross income (so people are obviously inheriting or being gifted the deposit in most cases), we have a bit of a problem if the average applicant is earning 89k when the average household income in DL / Rathdown is 66k:
To many people here baffled at SF polling what they did at the GE (and polling above it through all polls since) there is an explanation in this data. The current property system is not accessible to a large swathe of the electorate. The average household is going to have be extremely disciplined with money over a long period to be able to get a mortgage for the average house. The gestation of a new type of class politics is in these numbers. I don't know if it will be SF that represent those without skin in the game long term, but this data tells me that if housing isn't structurally tackled, the days of 80% of the electorate voting for steady centrism is gone.
"Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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The civil war inside The New York Times between the (mostly young) wokes the (mostly 40+) liberals is the same one raging inside other publications and companies across the country. The dynamic is always the same. The New Guard has a different worldview, one articulated best by @JonHaidt and @glukianoff. They call it "safetyism," in which the right of people to feel emotionally and psychologically safe trumps what were previously considered core liberal values, like free speech. Perhaps the cleanest example of this dynamic was in 2018, when David Remnick, under tremendous public pressure from his staffers, disinvited Steve Bannon from appearing on stage at the New Yorker Ideas Festival. But there are dozens and dozens of examples. I've been mocked by many people over the past few years for writing about the campus culture wars. They told me it was a sideshow. But this was always why it mattered: The people who graduated from those campuses would rise to power inside key institutions and transform them. I'm in no way surprised by what has now exploded into public view. In a way, it's oddly comforting: I feel less alone and less crazy trying to explain the dynamic to people. What I am shocked by is the speed. I thought it would take a few years, not a few weeks. Here's one way to think about what's at stake: The New York Times motto is "all the news that's fit to print." One group emphasizes the word "all." The other, the word "fit." W/r/t Tom Cotton's oped and the choice to run it: I agree with our critics that it's a dodge to say "we want a totally open marketplace of ideas!" There are limits. Obviously. The question is: does his view fall outside those limits? Maybe the answer is yes. If the answer is yes, it means that the view of more than half of Americans are unacceptable. And perhaps they are.Last edited by Goodluck2me; 09-06-20, 13:43.
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostSo the Central Bank released mortgage lending data for 2019 here:
Section 3.1 has a table providing information for the average applicant (couples included) that is very eye opening indeed. The average FTB in Dublin:
average income = 89k
age = 34
deposit = 79k
LTI = 3.4
29 yr mortgage
LTV = 80%
Now, leaving aside the fact that the average deposit is nearly equal to yearly gross income (so people are obviously inheriting or being gifted the deposit in most cases), we have a bit of a problem if the average applicant is earning 89k when the average household income in DL / Rathdown is 66k:
To many people here baffled at SF polling what they did at the GE (and polling above it through all polls since) there is an explanation in this data. The current property system is not accessible to a large swathe of the electorate. The average household is going to have be extremely disciplined with money over a long period to be able to get a mortgage for the average house. The gestation of a new type of class politics is in these numbers. I don't know if it will be SF that represent those without skin in the game long term, but this data tells me that if housing isn't structurally tackled, the days of 80% of the electorate voting for steady centrism is gone.
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Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
Big difference between 'his tomb is still open to the public' and a statue standing in Bristol Harbour. The latter is very in your face and you see it every time you pass. Whereas you actively have to go into the mausoleum.
As for getting the plaque changed in Bristol, apparently this has been attempted over the last few years but the council has been moving very slowly.
He's also up all over Moscow, including 22m high in Kaluga Square.
images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTQxM9uljG34ryEwxI2YHDCDZeKCxpkGgVDgdyLLMVxlkZrW9w4&usqp=CAU.jpg
No disrespect to Bristol Harbour."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by ComradeCollie View PostAmazing the way he can still surprise me
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View PostI don't know about the statue-toppling. It seems like modern-day iconoclasm.
These things are part of our shared history, good and bad. Why not have a sign that contextualises things?
"This is a statue of Mr X. He was a slave trader - back in the 1800s when this was considered acceptable."
Surely people can then make their own minds up - that seems more mature that just simply airbrushing history.
The question that troubles me is where do you stop and who decrees what is acceptable. Some might say that any statues of notables from imperial times should be destroyed. Which would mean a hell of a lot of empty plinths across Europe.
The dichotomy here must be this - we as a mature society can be against imperialism, racism, slavery etc but I don't think we can airbrush away that history, either through destruction of public statuary or indeed by rewriting history. We should seek to understand it and place it in the context of the time.
For example - Lenin was a mass murderer but his tomb is still open to the public. Should he be turfed out of his mausoleum in Red Square and chucked in the Moscow river?
We used to be able to ignore the stupid and lead most of them on a sensible path but everybody has a voice now and stupid, divisive opinion will always have a loud voice unfortunately. .'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Not sure where you are going with this idea that Russian worships brutal dictators and therefore slave traders should stand in Bristol. I mean, I guess you have a plan, and I for one am intrigued to find it out.
The question being if you get rid of statuary of one, should you also get rid of the other?
And where does it stop, who owns historical memory?
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostI don't know if it will be SF that represent those without skin in the game long term, but this data tells me that if housing isn't structurally tackled, the days of 80% of the electorate voting for steady centrism is gone."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
I know I've said this multiple times already, but I think he might have finally gone too far...
Marty: The last time Tap toured America, they where, uh, booked into 10,000 seat arenas, and 15,000 seat venues, and it seems that now, on their current tour they're being booked into 1,200 seat arenas, 1,500 seat arenas, and uh I was just wondering, does this mean uh...the popularity of the group is waning?
Ian: Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no...no, no, not at all. I, I, I just think that the.. uh.. their appeal is becoming more selective.
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostSo the Central Bank released mortgage lending data for 2019 here:
Section 3.1 has a table providing information for the average applicant (couples included) that is very eye opening indeed. The average FTB in Dublin:
average income = 89k
age = 34
deposit = 79k
LTI = 3.4
29 yr mortgage
LTV = 80%
Now, leaving aside the fact that the average deposit is nearly equal to yearly gross income (so people are obviously inheriting or being gifted the deposit in most cases), we have a bit of a problem if the average applicant is earning 89k when the average household income in DL / Rathdown is 66k:
To many people here baffled at SF polling what they did at the GE (and polling above it through all polls since) there is an explanation in this data. The current property system is not accessible to a large swathe of the electorate. The average household is going to have be extremely disciplined with money over a long period to be able to get a mortgage for the average house. The gestation of a new type of class politics is in these numbers. I don't know if it will be SF that represent those without skin in the game long term, but this data tells me that if housing isn't structurally tackled, the days of 80% of the electorate voting for steady centrism is gone.
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Originally posted by Keane View Post
Every tweet I see reminds me of the great line from Spinal Tap
All he's managed to do over the past six months (or maybe more) is make himself a greater and greater god to a smaller and smaller pool. He's toast.
The real question would be the transition (which I think would be smooth, I actually think American institutions are pretty robust) and then where the fuck does the GOP go post-Trump. You could easily see Trump setting up some rival organisation and media."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
Already gone shirley? More like 50% now."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
Well yeah, 73% in 2011 between FFG and Labour down to 47% in February. My point is that this data is a key explanation of why.
remember most people couldn't give a fuck about housing! I wouldn't rush to say that is a 'key explanation'."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
My youngest enjoyed swimming in the sea so much last weekend that she's insistent we go again today.
ay ay ay
I had my first sea swim of the year yesterday as the nearest spot is outside the 5km zone. Seapoint was fairly mobbed (plus tide was out) and I really dislike the 40' was went with my preferred option of Vico. Wasn't too busy and the water was fresh but quite bearable. Am looking forward to getting back into it regularly.
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Originally posted by Lao Lao View Post
Where are you swimming on the Northside?
The only thing is it's such a shallow incline that you might have to walk 300m out to get up to your waist! but obviously that is ideal for kids"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Jam-Fly View PostShouting loud, using logical fallacies, discouraging rigorous debate, confidence tricks, and manipulation seems the way to go today) and democracy doesn't look like such a great option.
Ironically it was people working for the progressives Bill Clinton and Tony Blair who really kickstarted what we see today in politics. The big differences being instead of real life focus group data we have social media company big data, messages can be targeted to the different audiences with precision, and the bad guys use it best.
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Utility companies are a strange bunch. I got an e-mail from my bin company to announce of increases in both the monthly service charge and the lift fee per bin so I ring them to let them know I'm not happy about the increase and will have to look around at options. I'm told the A/c's team will get back to me to see if they can do anything.
Sure enough, about an hour later I get a call, where they guy offers me an all in super duper monthly fee which is more than I'm currently paying them based on current usage. So he offers me a reduced all in super duper monthly fee and is somewhat disheartened when I tell him that it's still more than I'm currently paying.
So he counters with, how about we leave you paying what you're currently paying plus I'll put 30 quid credit on your account.
Excellent, thanks for that!
They obviously get a huge number of people just accepting the increases to make it worth their while to give the few a discount when they look to leave.
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Originally posted by Lao Lao View PostUtility companies are a strange bunch. I got an e-mail from my bin company to announce of increases in both the monthly service charge and the lift fee per bin so I ring them to let them know I'm not happy about the increase and will have to look around at options. I'm told the A/c's team will get back to me to see if they can do anything.
Sure enough, about an hour later I get a call, where they guy offers me an all in super duper monthly fee which is more than I'm currently paying them based on current usage. So he offers me a reduced all in super duper monthly fee and is somewhat disheartened when I tell him that it's still more than I'm currently paying.
So he counters with, how about we leave you paying what you're currently paying plus I'll put 30 quid credit on your account.
Excellent, thanks for that!
They obviously get a huge number of people just accepting the increases to make it worth their while to give the few a discount when they look to leave.
‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
most people have a house, and most of those have no mortgage
I sometimes question how in touch you are with the plain people of Ireland tbh.
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Originally posted by Keane View PostI sometimes question how in touch you are with the plain people of Ireland tbh.
We in the Horse Head Elite pride ourselves on our understanding of the Common Man. Sometimes we might even speak to one, to order a drink for example or to request extra pillows."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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I don’t really know what the fuck Glyn is talking about here tbh. It’s true to say that FG hoped it wouldn’t be a key part of February’s election but it clearly was.
I also think that we’re experiencing a first generation of Irish people of which most won’t end up owning a house. And that will have real political consequences. But whatever - I felt the data was quite interesting and something of interest to most as Keane notes."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
How dare you sir; my good friends Cuthbert, Sir Percival and Winston are the epitome of the plain people of Ireland.
We in the Horse Head Elite pride ourselves on our understanding of the Common Man. Sometimes we might even speak to one, to order a drink for example or to request extra pillows.
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Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
It's just not in the realms of possibility for a lot of people, wages combined with the rent they have to pay. The only reason I want to buy is the quality to value ratio of renting being abysmal and when I do so it'll be alone and with a 6 figure deposit just for a 2 bed apartment or house. I hear grumbling from people about this issue constantly.
'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by Keane View PostIs there anyone on IPB who could put their hand up and say they are utterly disinterested in housing policy in the state?'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick
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Originally posted by eagle eye View PostI was reading up where approx. 60% of buyers over the last three years have been cash buyers. I was shocked that it was so high.
Most apartments sold in town have been done thru the Chinese embassy for the government over there
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostYou see that from LLs post earlier. He pointed out the problem and then said that's why SF are so popular, and despite him following them he couldn't say what their solution is. Because clearly they haven't come up with a magical solution.
In reality theres 40% of people who pay no taxes and SF is campaigning on them magically becoming home owners. You simply can't not pay tax and then find a state solution to being a home owner.
There's messing around the margins on the top rate of tax, but 51% marginal after €35k is already atrociously high for what you get. So maybe you increase the tax of those earning over €100k. There's just not enough people earning that income to fund anything substantial and loads of that particular workforce is internationally mobile.
The solution is that everyone pays tax, like the rest of Europe, and gets things like subsidised housing in return when they need it. But a populist party will never be able to propose that. Populism requires identifying another group who will pay for everything. Not sure there is that 'other group' in Ireland.
Eoin O'Broin's book covers their proposed solutions. I think the problem we have now ultimately stems from the government withdrawing from its role as primary builder in the state. It worked up until 2007 of course, but since then it's been a disaster. We have a broken process and a dysfunctional market with the wrong incentives everywhere. SF or whoever need to build large volumes of social and affordable housing. That's what any solution will be built around, to pardon the pun.
In any case, the context of the February election is now utterly changed. It remains to be seen how the nature of the problem will shift over the next few months.
Last edited by LuckyLloyd; 09-06-20, 18:58."Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
Why would the Chinese government want houses in the middle of nowhere?
to put their students who study over here in
might be a long shot but have seen 3 different sales documents to verify it
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'Little Britain' removed from Netflix. Thanks Black Lives Matter https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...ters-grmtfxndjGone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Originally posted by hotspur View Post
Reading A Gentleman in Moscow atm. I could see immediately why it appealed to you so much. Moustaches at full sail and whatnot."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
"Following them"?! I don't see it like a game of football like some on here.
Eoin O'Broin's book covers their proposed solutions. I think the problem we have now ultimately stems from the government withdrawing from its role as primary builder in the state. It worked up until 2007 of course, but since then it's been a disaster. We have a broken process and a dysfunctional market with the wrong incentives everywhere. SF or whoever need to build large volumes of social and affordable housing. That's what any solution will be built around, to pardon the pun.
In any case, the context of the February election is now utterly changed. It remains to be seen how the nature of the problem will shift over the next few months.
are SF absolutely delighted they are not going to be in Government now? Feels like FF have done them the favour to end all favours (and probably sealed their own demise) by refusing to coalesce with them. I imagine Mary Who secretly prays to an image of Mehole every night to give thanks.
what say you to the prospect of a snap election? If these interminable talks collapse."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Just visited de mudder for the first time in three months. She seems to be taking a fairly laissez faire approach to the whole covid thing and is picking which regulations suit her. Reckon that might describe a fairly large swathe of our coccooners."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostHow many slave traders do the UK have? wtf.
But like I asked earlier, where do you stop? Is Queen Victoria OK, but not King Leopold?
Do you ban Huckleberry Finn?
History happened within the context of its time. We can therefore contextualise it. I'm uncomfortable with the idea of a kind of historical mob rule."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
But its surely then about which party is best placed to fix the problem. FG have been excellently innovative on house planning permission. You can see by how much it pisses off nimbys. Plus the 20k income tax refund towards a deposit. Still, they're awful, but not sure they're as awful as other parties.
FF were awful. And I simply don't believe SF. Every scheme they propose is from countries where there is vastly higher tax rates / property taxes on the ordinary folk they want to give houses to. We've seen from NI they can't take tough decisions on the economy that involve take and give. In the Republic the dumbasses are even against a property tax that is main funding of local housing in European countries with better housing.
The issue then is: is SF just picking a popular issue with no logical approach to solving the issue?
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