Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Wordle Gummidge

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[Solksjaer!]

I'm seeing Onions .

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[Guest]

Why don't you....start a business?

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[Guest]

Oh what could have been!

[pgodkin]

For all the madness that this covid has cause the advancements we have made is mad... Just watched a funeral for the father of one of my best friends

Plus it's mad all the stuff you can do now companies now sending out digital signature copies where you have had to print and post or email back some stuff, really hope we dont lose this when we start opening back up

[Tar.Aldarion]

Missed the phone nerdery but gotta say my 2 year old Huawei P20 is absolutely class. The screen, the camera, the build quality, the software, the battery. There is a really aggressive battery saving system on there, killing apps I put in the background etc so it lasts ages. Also the camera is class even in shit conditions. This is a pic I took of my bro and his gf at night in NY, pitch black with a really bright lamp beside us, and it''s lost a lot of quality in uploading it but w/e. Their phones couldn't handle it at all and Huawei have loads of better newer phones than this. Apple are fine, always will be sleek nice overpriced phones, but will never be best bang for buck, just no. Talked my bro down from getting another macbook for a slim windows number and he's in love with it.

[Denny Crane]

I have an itch for some sort of 'grow a business' PC game - where you build a business, trade goods, invest in buildings, etc. Is there anything fun out there?

Donald Trump's Real Estate Tycoon is a business simulation game developed by RedCap and published by Activision Value.

[Theresa]

Huawei phones banned over here. Can't get them anywhere. Great pieces of kit though.

[Guest]

I have an itch for some sort of 'grow a business' PC game - where you build a business, trade goods, invest in buildings, etc. Is there anything fun out there?

eeh but how realistic would it be?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSLscJ2cY04

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[The Aul Switcharoo]

Will seem so trivial and petty to most and rightly so but fuck me I'm consumed with the sweat of will golf courses be given the nod to open the 5th of May!

I'm hopeful that we can get out onto the course too. Members only and 2ball max etc. Have a golf net and putting mat arriving in the next day or two anyway to keep me busy for the couple weeks. Will be collecting dust after

Got an over70s parent or contact they might need a 500 eur boost ?
https://www.ageaction.ie/how-we-can-...-hardship-fund

Strewelpeter?

[Trippie]

SPOILER

Most commonly broken: Maybe baby toe.
Smallest bone. Can't name it, but it's in the inner ear. I think that on is well known.
Strongest: Overall, blue whale. lb for lb, I don't know.
265 at birth. 205 by adulthood as they fuse together.
Humans
Probably something insane like 600

2

[Trippie]

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Nose
Crab
Auditory ossicle perhaps malleus within that
Hippo jaw
210
Humans
50

1

[Trippie]

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Rib
tooth
Kangaroo if you mean lifting, or Rhino
260
Jellyfish
40?

1

[hotspur]

Oh what could have been!

Our plan to fund MSN as an early vape retailer was the boat we missed.

I think that stadium looks great from the inside based on this video imagining of it, that the petals of the lotus change colour is great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwA-G4o3EY4

[shrapnel]

Probably attached the wrong version?

doesn't pay attention to detail. not great in physics

[Tar.Aldarion]

That's a lovely photo! What laptop did you recommend? In the market for one at the moment.

How did the last one I picked for ya work out? He probably has very different needs than you since it is mostly just writing articlesand research papers in coffee shops that he does, he got this:

https://www.laptopoutlet.co.uk/microsoft-surface-13-5-touchscreen-laptop-intel-core-i7-7660u-8gb-ram-256gb-ssd-backlit-keyboard-windows-10-pro-jkq-00038.html

[nicnicnic]

I can’t wait, bought myself a Scotty Cameron the other day so at least I look the part.

I’m 50/50 on golf being back, it was last to close but I’m not sure it means it’ll be first to open.

Are you a member anywhere? It may be a members only situation for a while.

Pay the yearly green fees and GUI in Williamstown ( public course ) for the last 15 years or so. I'd knock about up there late in the evenings this time of year. You'd have the course practically to yourself for two hours before dusk however it has been a bit busier the last two years. Never played a comp there. The few cards I'd put in over the year would be open singles Gold Coast, Faithlegg or Mount Juliet.

I've been a member in a couple of local courses simultaneously over the years. Joined Waterford 3 year ago and played there 4 times in that year, so just don't see the point.

Golf is a relaxation/mediation late in the evenings or a day out or trip with mates. Was never one for trying to get the handicap down or clubhouse sociability side of it.

I've always been fucking brutal at it TBH but am at ease with that and decent at game selection and handicapping.

Can’t see golf reopening while the 2KM restriction is in place
Even if it does expect the mob on twitter and FB to descend because of golfs perceived elitism (which is not the case in this country)

Same fears here, possibly a misguided hope we get a result for logic on it.

[dinekes]

I posted a short story here a couple of weeks ago that had nothing to do with Covid 19. I've written another one which has gone in the polar opposite direction, although the Juve team of the early 1980s also features heavily (possibly inspired by that world XI challenge!)

If you're interested it's up here - https://medium.com/@carlopoppo/bonie...y-98355d51e08f

Excellent, had a lump in my throat reading that.

Well.done and thanks.

[Guest]

How did the last one I picked for ya work out? He probably has very different needs than you since it is mostly just writing articlesand research papers in coffee shops that he does, he got this:
https://www.laptopoutlet.co.uk/micro...jkq-00038.html

Exact model I had for college, excellent piece of kit.

I currently have this for work if you're looking for something that can do a little more without getting into Xeon: https://www.dell.com/en-ie/shop/gami...laptop/cng5525

I was offered a Mac for work but opted against it, my only slight regret was when I saw SQL StudioPro on the boss's, it is a really user friendly interface.

[DeadParrot]

eeh but how realistic would it be?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSLscJ2cY04

that guy got no respect

[Theresa]

huh?!

Man, I must have imagined that. I thought Canada banned them due to the retaliation over detaining their CEO recently.

I then searched best buy and walmart and no dice. Brain not working.

[Raoul Duke III]

For kids, I think it is

SPOILER

wrist

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[Goodluck2me]

Anyone good a good shortcut/tip to speed up a laptop?

Have one that really only holds a few photos, use for playing the odd home game on Stars but it's impossible to get it started up in less than 10mins. Can't use google chrome at all it's a 6-7mins per instruction, though IE works fine.

It has a newer version of windows that what it was built for I think, can I go back to the old one? i'd reset it but I don't want to lose photos/files.

[shrapnel]

Anyone good a good shortcut/tip to speed up a laptop?

Have one that really only holds a few photos, use for playing the odd home game on Stars but it's impossible to get it started up in less than 10mins. Can't use google chrome at all it's a 6-7mins per instruction, though IE works fine.

It has a newer version of windows that what it was built for I think, can I go back to the old one? i'd reset it but I don't want to lose photos/files.

upgrade your RAM? dirt cheap these days

[LuckyLloyd]

Now if you read that really carefully it says they found antibodies in 1.5% of people (as a median for the range of inaccuracy in the test). They then play a bit of jazz with that result to suggest it *could* be as high as 5.71% of the weighted whole population. They then say this is as much as 85 fold higher than the reported covid 19 volume for that population sample they’ve played jazz to reach. That’s the media takeaway obviously.

Context is the US really hasn’t been testing, so they will end up with much higher ‘x fold more antibodies than y confirmed cases’ results that much of the western world. The other thing is that even if their upper end maths is right and it’s say 6% through the population that’s way way short of the numbers needed for herd immunity or any meaningful impact on a subsequent wave.

Lastly, the numbers here are way more ambitious than a serological survey performed in Germany or the one in Scotland last week (6 of 1000). So yeah, large dollops of salt required!

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/

More informed and expert criticism of the Stanford antibody study and model

Tl; dr: the study posted by Apache and picked up and covered widely in the media is garbage.

[shrapnel]

really enjoyed first 2 episodes of the Michael Jordan documentary "the Last dance" on netflix. amazing footage, stories, etc. and 2 episodes are to be dropped weekly.

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[Guest]

really enjoyed first 2 episodes of the Michael Jordan documentary "the Last dance" on netflix. amazing footage, stories, etc. and 2 episodes are to be dropped weekly.

I wasn't aware it was on Netflix, I was going to ask OPR did he have a link. That's two more hours spent.

That looks nice! Although the 8gb ram is surely a killer for decent data work, no?

Perhaps it is, no idea

I use mostly Power BI & SQL. Datasets aren't particularly big so I haven't run into an issue yet.

When I was in my old place, the machine was a little more heavy duty but for this it's fine hence I was offered the Mac

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[Guest]

Anyone good a good shortcut/tip to speed up a laptop?

Have one that really only holds a few photos, use for playing the odd home game on Stars but it's impossible to get it started up in less than 10mins. Can't use google chrome at all it's a 6-7mins per instruction, though IE works fine.

It has a newer version of windows that what it was built for I think, can I go back to the old one? i'd reset it but I don't want to lose photos/files.

Putting your operating system on an SSD should make the biggest difference for somewhat casual usage imo, you won't lose any files that way either.

[6starpool]

Putting your operating system on an SSD should make the biggest difference for somewhat casual usage imo, you won't lose any files that way either.

My 4 year old laptop with an SSD still boots up in about 3 seconds from off. It's great. 16GB RAM helps too overall I'm sure.

[Raoul Duke III]

Post more of that guy Hitch!

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[Raoul Duke III]

It's just spectacular the way he changes tone mid-sentence to express new emotions.

It was what I imagine Strewel's visit to the passport office to be like.

[Silver-Tiger]

Post more of that guy Hitch!

Yeah. Where do i find him?

[Guest]

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.e...us-prevalence/

More informed and expert criticism of the Stanford antibody study and model

Tl; dr: the study posted by Apache and picked up and covered widely in the media is garbage.

Fair to say that the Scottish study adds little value too.

It's a nascent situation so deriving much of anything from these studies is hard to do.

The Scottish study is based on blood donors during a pandemic. That must be as bias a sample as one can find.

*I took the time to read that critique. On the face of it, he seems to make some valid points.

On conclusion though, what I find very hard to understand is how one can place more weight in the opinion of someone who finishes with:
P.S. Again, I know nothing about blood testing.
than a team of epidemiologists.

I assume in order to properly critique epidemiology, you'd likely want to at least be an epidemiologist.

[dinekes]

Clearly need to work on my sock washing/drying strategy.
Currently have 7 mismatched socks hanging in the airing cupboard. Now it's a fair certainty that ill find a match in the dusty horrible lump down by the side of the airing cupboard, however, given my phobia of dusty horrible lumps and what lurks therein I have bravely decided to sport a grey/green ensemble and damn the begrudgers.

[LuckyLloyd]

really enjoyed first 2 episodes of the Michael Jordan documentary "the Last dance" on netflix. amazing footage, stories, etc. and 2 episodes are to be dropped weekly.

Gonna watch it later. Have such high hopes this footage has been rumoured about for years.

[ArmaniJeans]

Yer man in the car is entertaining, but surely what he is asking for is actually happening anyway? He vocally wants the 3 months to be added on to the end of the mortgage, but I'd assume that's what the deal is anyway. Effectively these 3 months don't exist, no payment, no penalty, extra 3 months at the end.

What other way could it done, the banks can't be looking for the 3 missed months to be paid in one lump sum in month 4 can they?

[tipp86]

I messaged someone last night to ask them were they playing an online game. The said person is somewhat regular at live events. They responded to say they had lost too much online over the last few days and wanted a break.

It got me thinking are the Live operators pushing people online actually making a big mistake for a short term gain. These so called "local games' dont appear to be ring fenced unless its an actual private game.

Will it just lead to live players losing quicker and move away from playing. On the flip side these players will probably just play elsewhere. Why not try to earn a profit during the down time as a live operator.

[shrapnel]

Yer man in the car is entertaining, but surely what he is asking for is actually happening anyway? He vocally wants the 3 months to be added on to the end of the mortgage, but I'd assume that's what the deal is anyway. Effectively these 3 months don't exist, no payment, no penalty, extra 3 months at the end.

What other way could it done, the banks can't be looking for the 3 missed months to be paid in one lump sum in month 4 can they?

it definitely is in Europe, but not sure in the US?

[Tar.Aldarion]

Not to let huawei off scott free, it's not the first time that they have done shady things like this

https://www.androidauthority.com/huawei-misleading-dslr-photos-1108865/

Also installinf ddr3 ram and saying it's ddr4 etc.

[Trippie]

What's most commonly broken bone
What animal has most the bones in it
Smallest bone in the body
Animal with the strongest bone
+/-3 number of bones in human body
What has the highest brain to body ratio
How many teeth +/-5 do leeches have

SPOILER

clavicle
python
stapes - third of three ossicles in middle ear
rhino femur
206
treeshrew around 10%
300 teeth

[Guest]

This might have been posted before but I'm posting it again in case it wasn't, as this guy is the communicator we all need.

Is he a member of the Dice Clay family?

Looks and sounds the part

[Raoul Duke III]

Might be most surreal email I've ever got, telling me how to conduct virtual dining with clients during the pandemic. WTF?

[DeadParrot]

Boris fairly eviscerated by the times

SPOILER

Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on the virus, calls to order protective gear were ignored and scientists’ warnings fell on deaf ears. Failings in February may have cost thousands of lives

Jonathan Calvert, George Arbuthnott and Jonathan Leake; Saturday April 18 2020

On the third Friday of January a silent and stealthy killer was creeping across the world. Passing from person to person and borne on ships and planes, the coronavirus was already leaving a trail of bodies.

The virus had spread from China to six countries and was almost certainly in many others. Sensing the coming danger, the British government briefly went into wartime mode that day, holding a meeting of Cobra, its national crisis committee.

But it took just an hour that January 24 lunchtime to brush aside the coronavirus threat. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, bounced out of Whitehall after chairing the meeting and breezily told reporters the risk to the UK public was “low”.

This was despite the publication that day of an alarming study by Chinese doctors in the medical journal, The Lancet. It assessed the lethal potential of the virus, for the first time suggesting it was comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people.

Unusually, Boris Johnson had been absent from Cobra. The committee — which includes ministers, intelligence chiefs and military generals — gathers at moments of great peril such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters and other threats to the nation and is normally chaired by the prime minister.

Johnson had found time that day, however, to join in a lunar new year dragon eyes ritual as part of Downing Street’s reception for the Chinese community, led by the country’s ambassador.

It was a big day for Johnson and there was a triumphal mood in Downing Street because the withdrawal treaty from the European Union was being signed in the late afternoon. It could have been the defining moment of his premiership — but that was before the world changed.

That afternoon his spokesman played down the looming threat from the east and reassured the nation that we were “well prepared for any new diseases”. The confident, almost nonchalant, attitude displayed that day in January would continue for more than a month.

Johnson went on to miss four further Cobra meetings on the virus. As Britain was hit by unprecedented flooding, he completed the EU withdrawal, reshuffled his cabinet and then went away to the grace-and-favour country retreat at Chevening where he spent most of the two weeks over half-term with his pregnant fiancée, Carrie Symonds.

It would not be until March 2 — another five weeks — that Johnson would attend a Cobra meeting about the coronavirus. But by then it was almost certainly too late. The virus had sneaked into our airports, our trains, our workplaces and our homes. Britain was on course for one of the worst infections of the most deadly virus to have hit the world in more than a century.

Last week, a senior adviser to Downing Street broke ranks and blamed the weeks of complacency on a failure of leadership in cabinet. In particular, the prime minister was singled out.

“There’s no way you’re at war if your PM isn’t there,” the adviser said. “And what you learn about Boris was he didn’t chair any meetings. He liked his country breaks. He didn’t work weekends. It was like working for an old-fashioned chief executive in a local authority 20 years ago. There was a real sense that he didn’t do urgent crisis planning. It was exactly like people feared he would be.”
**Impending danger**

The prime minister had been sunning himself with his girlfriend in the millionaires’ Caribbean resort of Mustique when China first alerted the World Health Organisation (WHO) on December 31 that several cases of an unusual pneumonia had been recorded in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in Hubei province.

In the days that followed China initially claimed the virus could not be transmitted from human to human, which should have been reassuring. But this did not ring true to Britain’s public health academics and epidemiologists who were texting each other, eager for more information, in early January.

Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, had predicted in a talk two years earlier that a virus might jump species from an animal in China and spread quickly to become a human pandemic. So the news from Wuhan set her on high alert.

“In early January a lot of my global health colleagues and I were kind of discussing ‘What’s going on?’” she recalled. “China still hadn’t confirmed the virus was human-to-human. A lot of us were suspecting it was because it was a respiratory pathogen and you wouldn’t see the numbers of cases that we were seeing out of China if it was not human-to-human. So that was disturbing.”

By as early as January 16 the professor was on Twitter calling for swift action to prepare for the virus. “Been asked by journalists how serious #WuhanPneumonia outbreak is,” she wrote. “My answer: take it seriously because of cross-border spread (planes means bugs travel far & fast), likely human-to-human transmission and previous outbreaks have taught overresponding is better than delaying action.”

Events were now moving fast. Four hundred miles away in London, from its campus next to the Royal Albert Hall, a team at Imperial College’s School of Public Health led by Professor Neil Ferguson produced its first modelling assessment of the likely impact of the virus. On Friday, January 17, its report noted the “worrying” news that three cases of the virus had been discovered outside China — two in Thailand and one in Japan. While acknowledging many unknowns, researchers calculated that there could already be as many as 4,000 cases. The report warned: “The magnitude of these numbers suggests substantial human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out. Heightened surveillance, prompt information-sharing and enhanced preparedness are recommended.”

By now the mystery bug had been identified as a type of coronavirus — a large family of viruses that can cause infections ranging from the common cold to severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars). There had been two reported deaths from the virus and 41 patients had been taken ill.

The following Wednesday, January 22, the government convened its first meeting of its scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) to discuss the virus. Its membership is secret but it is usually chaired by the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and chief medical adviser, Professor Chris Whitty. Downing Street advisers are also present.

There were new findings that day with Chinese scientists warning that the virus had an unusually high infectivity rate of up to 3.0, which meant each person with the virus would typically infect up to three more people.

One of those present was Imperial’s Ferguson, who was already working on his own estimate — putting infectivity at 2.6 and possibly as high as 3.5 — which he sent to ministers and officials in a report on the day of the Cobra meeting on January 24. The Spanish flu had an estimated infectivity rate of between 2.0 and 3.0, so Ferguson’s finding was shocking.

The professor’s other bombshell in the same report was that there needed to be a 60% cut in the transmission rate — which meant stopping contact between people. In layman’s terms it meant a lockdown, a move that would paralyse an economy already facing a battering from Brexit. At the time such a suggestion was unthinkable in the government and belonged to the world of post-apocalypse movies.

The growing alarm among scientists appears not to have been heard or heeded by policy-makers. After the January 25 Cobra meeting, the chorus of reassurance was not just from Hancock and the prime minister’s spokesman: Whitty was confident too.
In early February Hancock proudly told the Commons the UK was one of the first countries to develop a new test for the virus

“Cobra met today to discuss the situation in Wuhan, China,” said Whitty. “We have global experts monitoring the situation around the clock and have a strong track record of managing new forms of infectious disease . . . there are no confirmed cases in the UK to date.”

However, by then there had been 1,000 cases worldwide and 41 deaths, mostly in Wuhan. A Lancet report that day presented a study of 41 coronavirus patients admitted to hospital in Wuhan which found that more than half had severe breathing problems, a third required intensive care and six had died.

And there was now little doubt that the UK would be hit by the virus. A study by Southampton University has shown that 190,000 people flew into the UK from Wuhan and other high-risk Chinese cities between January and March. The researchers estimated that up to 1,900 of these passengers would have been infected with the coronavirus — almost guaranteeing the UK would become a centre of the subsequent pandemic.

Sure enough, five days later on Wednesday, January 29, the first coronavirus cases on British soil were found when two Chinese nationals from the same family fell ill at a hotel in York. The next day, the government raised the threat level from low to moderate.
**The pandemic plan**

On January 31 — or Brexit day as it had become known — there was a rousing 11pm speech by the prime minister promising that the withdrawal from the European Union would be the dawn of a new era unleashing the British people who would “grow in confidence” month by month.

By this time, there was good reason for the government’s top scientific advisers to feel creeping unease about the virus. The WHO had declared the coronavirus a global emergency just the day before and scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine had confirmed to Whitty in a private meeting of the Nervtag advisory committee on respiratory illness that the virus’s infectivity could be as bad as Ferguson’s worst estimate several days earlier.

The official scientific advisers were willing to concede in public that there might be several cases of the coronavirus in the UK. But they had faith that the country’s plans for a pandemic would prove robust.

This was probably a big mistake. An adviser to Downing Street with extensive knowledge of Britain’s emergency preparations — speaking off the record — says their confidence in “the plan” was misplaced. While a possible pandemic had been listed as the No 1 threat to the nation for many years, the source says that in reality it had long since stopped being treated as such.

Several emergency planners and scientists said that the plans to protect the UK in a pandemic had once been a top priority and had been well-funded for a decade following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. But then austerity cuts struck. “We were the envy of the world,” the source said, “but pandemic planning became a casualty of the austerity years when there were more pressing needs.”

The last rehearsal for a pandemic was a 2016 exercise codenamed Cygnus which predicted the health service would collapse and highlighted a long list of shortcomings — including, presciently, a lack of PPE and intensive care ventilators.

But an equally lengthy list of recommendations to address the deficiencies was never implemented. The source said preparations for a no-deal Brexit “sucked all the blood out of pandemic planning” in the following years.

In the year leading up to the coronavirus outbreak key government committee meetings on pandemic planning were repeatedly “bumped” off the diary to make way for discussions about more pressing issues such as the beds crisis in the NHS. Training for NHS staff with protective equipment and respirators was also neglected, the source alleges.

Members of the government advisory group on pandemics are said to have felt powerless. “They would joke between themselves, ‘Haha let’s hope we don’t get a pandemic,’ because there wasn’t a single area of practice that was being nurtured in order for us to meet basic requirements for pandemic, never mind do it well,” said the source.

“If you were with senior NHS managers at all during the last two years, you were aware that their biggest fear, their sweatiest nightmare, was a pandemic because they weren’t prepared for it.”

It meant that the government had much catching up to do when it was becoming clear that this “nightmare” was becoming a distinct possibility in February. But the source says there was little urgency. “Almost every plan we had was not activated in February. Almost every government department has failed to properly implement their own pandemic plans,” the source said.

One deviation from the plan, for example, was a failure to give an early warning to firms that there might be a lockdown so they could start contingency planning. “There was a duty to get them to start thinking about their cashflow and their business continuity arrangements,” the source said.

**Superspreader**

A central part of any pandemic plan is to identify anyone who becomes ill, vigorously pursue all their recent contacts and put them into quarantine. That involves testing and the UK initially seemed to be ahead of the game. In early February Hancock proudly told the Commons the UK was one of the first countries to develop a new test for the coronavirus. “Testing worldwide is being done on equipment designed in Oxford,” he said.

So when Steve Walsh, a 53-year-old businessman from Hove, East Sussex, was identified as the source of the second UK outbreak on February 6 all his contacts were followed up with tests. Walsh’s case was a warning of the rampant infectivity of the virus as he is believed to have passed it to five people in the UK after returning from a conference in Singapore as well as six overseas.

But Public Health England failed to take advantage of our early breakthroughs with tests and lost early opportunities to step up production to the levels that would later be needed.

This was in part because the government was planning for the virus using its blueprint for fighting the flu. Once a flu pandemic has found its way into the population and there is no vaccine, then the virus is allowed to take its course until “herd immunity” is acquired. Such a plan does not require mass testing.

A senior politician told this newspaper: “I had conversations with Chris Whitty at the end of January and they were absolutely focused on herd immunity. The reason is that with flu, herd immunity is the right response if you haven’t got a vaccine.

“All of our planning was for pandemic flu. There has basically been a divide between scientists in Asia who saw this as a horrible, deadly disease on the lines of Sars, which requires immediate lockdown, and those in the West, particularly in the US and UK, who saw this as flu.”

The prime minister’s special adviser Dominic Cummings is said to have had initial enthusiasm for the herd immunity concept, which may have played a part in the government’s early approach to managing the virus. The Department of Health firmly denies that “herd immunity” was ever its aim and rejects suggestions that Whitty supported it. Cummings also denies backing the concept.

The failure to obtain large amounts of testing equipment was another big error of judgment, according to the Downing Street source. It would later be one of the big scandals of the coronavirus crisis that the considerable capacity of Britain’s private laboratories to mass-produce tests was not harnessed during those crucial weeks of February.

“We should have communicated with every commercial testing laboratory that might volunteer to become part of the government’s testing regime but that didn’t happen,” said the source.

The lack of action was confirmed by Doris-Ann Williams, chief executive of the British In Vitro Diagnostics Association, which represents 110 companies that make up most of the UK’s testing sector. Amazingly, she says her organisation did not receive a meaningful approach from the government asking for help until April 1 — the night before Hancock bowed to pressure and announced a belated and ambitious target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month.

There was also a failure to replenish supplies of gowns and masks for health and care workers in the early weeks of February — despite NHS England declaring the virus its first “level four critical incident” at the end of January.

It was a key part of the pandemic plan — the NHS’s Operating Framework for Managing the Response to Pandemic Influenza dated December 2017 — that the NHS would be able to draw on “just in case” stockpiles of PPE.

But many of the “just in case” stockpiles had dwindled, and equipment was out of date. As not enough money was being spent on replenishing stockpiles, this shortfall was supposed to be filled by activating “just in time” contracts which had been arranged with equipment suppliers in recent years to deal with an emergency. The first order for equipment under the “just in time” protocol was made on January 30.

However, the source said that attempts to call in these “just in time” contracts immediately ran into difficulties in February because they were mostly with Chinese manufacturers who were facing unprecedented demand from the country’s own health service and elsewhere.

This was another nail in the coffin for the pandemic plan. “It was a massive spider’s web of failing, every domino has fallen,” said the source.

The NHS could have contacted UK-based suppliers. The British Healthcare Trades Association (BHTA) was ready to help supply PPE in February — and throughout March — but it was only on April 1 that its offer of help was accepted. Dr Simon Festing, the organisation’s chief executive, said: “Orders undoubtedly went overseas instead of to the NHS because of the missed opportunities in the procurement process.”

Downing Street admitted on February 24 — just five days before NHS chiefs warned a lack of PPE left the health service facing a “nightmare” — that the UK government had supplied 1,800 pairs of goggles and 43,000 disposable gloves, 194,000 sanitising wipes, 37,500 medical gowns and 2,500 face masks to China.

A senior department of health insider described the sense of drift witnessed during those crucial weeks in February: “We missed the boat on testing and PPE . . . I remember being called into some of the meetings about this in February and thinking, ‘Well it’s a good thing this isn’t the big one.’

“I had watched Wuhan but I assumed we must have not been worried because we did nothing. We just watched. A pandemic was always at the top of our national risk register — always — but when it came we just slowly watched. We could have been Germany but instead we were doomed by our incompetence, our hubris and our austerity.”

In the Far East the threat was being treated more seriously in the early weeks of February. Martin Hibberd, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, was in a unique position to compare the UK’s response with Singapore, where he had advised in the past.

“Singapore realised, as soon as Wuhan reported it, that cases were going to turn up in Singapore. And so they prepared for that. I looked at the UK and I can see a different strategy and approach.

“The interesting thing for me is, I’ve worked with Singapore in 2003 and 2009 and basically they copied the UK pandemic preparedness plan. But the difference is they actually implemented it.”

[DeadParrot]

Cont'd..

SPOILER

**Working holiday**

Towards the end of the second week of February, the prime minister was demob happy. After sacking five cabinet ministers and saying everyone “should be confident and calm” about Britain’s response to the virus, Johnson vacated Downing Street after the half-term recess began on February 13.

He headed to the country for a “working” holiday at Chevening with Symonds and would be out of the public eye for 12 days. His aides were thankful for the rest, as they had been working flat out since the summer as the Brexit power struggle had played out.

The Sunday newspapers that weekend would not have made comfortable reading. The Sunday Times reported on a briefing from a risk specialist which said that Public Health England would be overrun during a pandemic as it could test only 1,000 people a day.

Johnson may well have been distracted by matters in his personal life during his stay in the countryside. Aides were told to keep their briefing papers short and cut the number of memos in his red box if they wanted them to be read.

His family needed to be prepared for the announcement that Symonds, who turned 32 in March, was pregnant and that they had been secretly engaged for some time. Relations with his children had been fraught since his separation from his estranged wife Marina Wheeler and the rift deepened when she had been diagnosed with cancer last year.

The divorce also had to be finalised. Midway through the break it was announced in the High Court that the couple had reached a settlement, leaving Wheeler free to apply for divorce.

There were murmurings of frustration from some ministers and their aides at the time that Johnson was not taking more of a lead. But Johnson’s aides are understood to have felt relaxed: he was getting updates and they claim the scientists were saying everything was under control.

**400,000 deaths**

By the time Johnson departed for the countryside, however, there was mounting unease among scientists about the exceptional nature of the threat. Sir Jeremy Farrar, an infectious disease specialist who is a key government adviser, made this clear in a recent BBC interview.

“I think from the early days in February, if not in late January, it was obvious this infection was going to be very serious and it was going to affect more than just the region of Asia ,” he said. “I think it was very clear that this was going to be an unprecedented event.”

By February 21, the virus had already infected 76,000 people, had caused 2,300 deaths in China and was taking a foothold in Europe with Italy recording 51 cases and two deaths the following day. Nonetheless Nervtag, one of the key government advisory committees, decided to keep the threat level at “moderate”.

Its members may well regret that decision with hindsight and it was certainly not unanimous. John Edmunds, one of the country’s top infectious disease modellers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, was participating in the meeting by video link but his technology failed him at the crucial moment.

Edmunds wanted the threat level to be increased to high but could not make his view known as the link was glitchy. He sent an email later making his view clear. “JE believes that the risk to the UK population [in the PHE risk assessment] should be high, as there is evidence of ongoing transmission in Korea, Japan and Singapore, as well as in China,” the meeting’s minutes state. But the decision had already been taken.

Peter Openshaw, professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College, was in America at the time of the meeting but would also have recommended increasing the threat to high. Three days earlier he had given an address to a seminar in which he estimated that 60% of the world’s population would probably become infected if no action was taken and 400,000 people would die in the UK.

By February 26, there were 13 known cases in the UK. That day — almost four weeks before a full lockdown would be announced — ministers were warned through another advisory committee that the country was facing a catastrophic loss of life unless drastic action was taken. Having been thwarted from sounding the alarm, Edmunds and his team presented their latest “worst scenario” predictions to the scientific pandemic influenza group on modelling (SPI-M) which directly advises the country’s scientific decision-makers on Sage.

It warned that 27 million people could be infected and 220,000 intensive care beds would be needed if no action were taken to reduce infection rates. The predicted death toll was 380,000. Edmunds’s colleague Nick Davies, who led the research, says the report emphasised the urgent need for a lockdown almost four weeks before it was imposed.

The team modelled the effects of a 12-week lockdown involving school and work closures, shielding the elderly, social distancing and self-isolation. It estimated this would delay the impact of the pandemic but there still might be 280,000 deaths over the year.

**Johnson returns**

The previous night Johnson had returned to London for the Conservatives’ big fundraising ball, the Winter Party, at which one donor pledged £60,000 for the privilege of playing a game of tennis with him.

By this time the prime minister had missed five Cobra meetings on the preparations to combat the looming pandemic, which he left to be chaired by Hancock. Johnson was an easy target for the opposition when he returned to the Commons the following day with the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, labelling him a “part-time” prime minister for his failure to lead on the virus crisis or visit the areas of the UK badly hit by floods.

By Friday, February 28, the virus had taken root in the UK with reported cases rising to 19 and the stock markets were plunging. It was finally time for Johnson to act. He summoned a TV reporter into Downing Street to say he was on top of the coronavirus crisis.

“The issue of coronavirus is something that is now the government’s top priority,” he said. “I have just had a meeting with the chief medical officer and secretary of state for health talking about the preparations that we need to make.”

It was finally announced that he would be attending a meeting of Cobra — after a weekend at Chequers with Symonds where the couple would publicly release news of the engagement and their baby.

On the Sunday, there was a meeting between Sage committee members and officials from the Department of Health and NHS which was a game changer, according to a Whitehall source. The meeting was shown fresh modelling based on figures from Italy suggesting that 8% of infected people might need hospital treatment in a worst-case scenario. The previous estimate had been 4%-5%.

“The risk to the NHS had effectively doubled in an instant. It set alarm bells ringing across government,” said the Whitehall source. “I think that meeting focused minds. You realise it’s time to pull the trigger on the starting gun.”

At the Cobra meeting the next day with Johnson in the chair a full “battle plan” was finally signed off to contain, delay and mitigate the spread of the virus. This was on March 2 — five weeks after the first Cobra meeting on the virus.

The new push would have some positive benefits such as the creation of new Nightingale hospitals, which greatly increased the number of intensive care beds. But there was a further delay that month of nine days in introducing the lockdown as Johnson and his senior advisers debated what measures were required. Later the government would be left rudderless again after Johnson himself contracted the virus.

As the number of infections grew daily, some things were impossible to retrieve. There was a worldwide shortage of PPE and the prime minister would have to personally ring manufacturers of ventilators and testing kits in a desperate effort to boost supplies.

The result was that the NHS and care home workers would be left without proper protection and insufficient numbers of tests to find out whether they had been infected. To date 50 doctors, nurses and NHS workers have died. More than 100,000 people have been confirmed as infected in Britain and 15,000 have died.

A Downing Street spokesman said: “Our response has ensured that the NHS has been given all the support it needs to ensure everyone requiring treatment has received it, as well as providing protection to businesses and reassurance to workers. The prime minister has been at the helm of the response to this, providing leadership during this hugely challenging period for the whole nation.”

[Opr]

How did the last one I picked for ya work out? He probably has very different needs than you since it is mostly just writing articlesand research papers in coffee shops that he does, he got this:
https://www.laptopoutlet.co.uk/micro...jkq-00038.html

I have SurfaceBook. I think I said it at the time but it is still one of the best purchases I ever made and don't regret a penny of the money I spent on it. That is probably the better option these days as I never really use the detachable screen and there is a big price difference.

Opr

[Goodluck2me]

Putting your operating system on an SSD should make the biggest difference for somewhat casual usage imo, you won't lose any files that way either.

No idea what an SSD is. Hardware or software? easy to install?

Yer man in the car is entertaining, but surely what he is asking for is actually happening anyway? He vocally wants the 3 months to be added on to the end of the mortgage, but I'd assume that's what the deal is anyway. Effectively these 3 months don't exist, no payment, no penalty, extra 3 months at the end.

What other way could it done, the banks can't be looking for the 3 missed months to be paid in one lump sum in month 4 can they?

I would have thought its the interest element, it means your effectively paying interest on those three months deferred for the entirety of your mortgage. That will be for nearly every instance about twice the size of the deferral of principal for mortgages over 22 years today.

[Opr]

Post more of that guy Hitch!

It is missing the second half of the same rant alone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLcNStHTDjM

Loads more rants on the same youtube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbdutQndKv8

Opr

[Emmet]

Laptops:
The new Ryzen CPUs for mobile are hilariously good. Low power, great battery, small profile, integrated graphics which are actually class, single thread performance > Intel, 2x cores that Intels CPUs have as standard etc...

Actually Night and Day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYqG31V4qtA

https://www.asus.com/Laptops/ROG-Zephyrus-G14/

(though will possibly look @ getting the cpu model above this - referenced in the nerdy video)

[rounders123]

I've been noticing during this lockdown period that more couples are doing their shopping together. In other words its not just the gf/wife alone, now a swell of men are now coming along out of boredom. You know mainly by the straggling walk. And you know the domestic abuse pairs when leaving the shops the woman is carrying the shopping bags while yer man carries a magazine.

Some of them are even taking to bring their infant child for a walk in the pram alone. Saw one attentive father the other day all dressed up in his best shell suit and runners with a big headset on pushing the enclosed pram!. Always staying entertained, the baby be grand.

[6starpool]

I've been noticing during this lockdown period that more couples are doing their shopping together. In other words its not just the gf/wife alone, now a swell of men are now coming along out of boredom. You know mainly by the straggling walk. And you know the domestic abuse pairs when leaving the shops the woman is carrying the shopping bags while yer man carries a magazine.

Some of them are even taking to bring their infant child for a walk in the pram alone. Saw one attentive father the other day all dressed up in his best shell suit and runners with a big headset on pushing the enclosed pram!. Always staying entertained, the baby be grand.

Since the first kid arrived here I've done almost every big shop, sometimes the wife has come along, usually the first kid, sometimes both after the recentish arrival. Since mid March though I've done 100% of the shopping alone.