Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Raoul Duke III]

I know fuck all about pensions other than the public service one is probably decent because private sector workers complain about it.

Do you mean 1 million+ each? Assuming you make the average lifespan then you're talking 80k a year each. That seems like more than enough with no mortgage or kids to pay for.

Edit: Even full professors at the top of the scale don't get 80k pension a year in retirement.

I hate to break it to you zuut, but to get 80k p.a. you need far, far more than 1 million!

Also, given demographics, anyone relying on the promise of a DB pension (either Stste or private) is delusional.

[Guest]

I hate to break it to you zuut, but to get 80k p.a. you need far, far more than 1 million!

Also, given demographics, anyone relying on the promise of a DB pension (either Stste or private) is delusional.

Call me deluded so! Are they not locked into it? All these cunce I'm teaching better pay for me when I'm decrepit because of them.

Apparently we get 1/2 final salary until death with 40 years service (which I won't get to) and a 1.5 x lump sum. Top of the scale is 140k (which I also won't get to!).

[Raoul Duke III]

Call me deluded so! Are they not locked into it? All these cunce I'm teaching better pay for me when I'm decrepit because of them.

Apparently we get 1/2 final salary until death with 40 years service (which I won't get to) and a 1.5 x lump sum. Top of the scale is 140k (which I also won't get to!).

That's the promise

It may prove to be somewhat elastic in reality, particularly when you look at how many other completely unprovisioned-for auld lads will be retiring at the same time.

All of those DB workers in various companies who thought they had equally solid promises can tell you more about the reality of such promises and how they worked out.

[Guest]

Backup plan: Sell the house, move to rural France, live out my days on the difference.

[Raoul Duke III]

Backup plan: Sell the house, move to rural France, live out my days on the difference.

yeah, but...French people

still, wine

[Tar.Aldarion]

Is there some pension pot calculator online? Also taking into account some sort of expected interest

[Mellor]

Do you mean 1 million+ each? Assuming you make the average lifespan then you're talking 80k a year each. That seems like more than enough with no mortgage or kids to pay for.

I think the mistake is using average lifespan as a guide.
Average lifespan is calculated from birth. It being 78 or whatever means that's how long the average newborn is expected to live.
But you make it to 65 you are ahead of the curve.

From looking at stats for the US. Reaching 65 adds almost another decade to expectancy.

[Guest]

Have to interview for my own job again next month. There's 4 years going at my level and a permanent gig a level up.
What kind of perverse system makes somebody who's being doing a job effectively for 5 years compete with 20 other people to keep it every now and then? And they say there's no performance management in the public sector!

[Mellor]

Is there some pension pot calculator online? Also taking into account some sort of expected interest

You can pretty much ignore expected interest as it will be cancelled out by inflation.

[Jibzzzz]

Think Tomahawk might be my new favorite Dublin Steakhouse, highly recommend.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Tar.Aldarion]

What would a million give you per year, how is it split up?

[Keane]

You can pretty much ignore expected interest as it will be cancelled out by inflation.

Wha?

[Raoul Duke III]

What would a million give you per year, how is it split up?

Depends what options you take; annuity or ARF

In the current environment, you would be off your rocket to buy an annuity (but who knows what the case will be when we turn old).

ARFs; you must withdraw a mimimum of 4% p.a.
Doesn't mean you have to spend it of course.

[Raoul Duke III]

A million in a pension pot somewhere seems like an absolute minimum. Just hadn't realised it cost anywhere near that much to arrive at that type of pot of money. That's 25+14=40% of his salary that Raoul is saving. Think I remember my brother - 36yo - proudly talking about starting to save 4% a year into his pension.

My thoughts are that, when I retire I need three things:

1. time (I'll have plenty)
2. health (who knows)
3. money (to enjoy the above two to the max)

Who wants to be old and poor?

I am probably at the far end of the bell curve though.

[Lazare]

The Blindboy podcast.

Is a truely beautiful thing.

Episode 1 is anyway, and the rest will be devoured in very short order.

It really is outstanding. He's a very clever boy. Yurt.

Still curious to find out why Jack and Dobby scoffed when I said I loved it.

[Keane]

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him.

[eamonhonda]

It really is outstanding. He's a very clever boy. Yurt.

Still curious to find out why Jack and Dobby scoffed when I said I loved it.

Enuf of ur left liberal bullshit m8. Feminists are ruining the world, keep all those feelings bottled up and act hard, no real men about these days

[eoghan104]

My thoughts are that, when I retire I need three things:

1. time (I'll have plenty)
2. health (who knows)
3. money (to enjoy the above two to the max)

Who wants to be old and poor?

I am probably at the far end of the bell curve though.

Who wants to be young an frugal when they might not even reach 65?

There is always two ways to look at things. Sure you have a rake of kids, let them look after you?!

@Hitch,

That yoke says I should be paying 18% tax and I am paying 35%. I have no pension with my job as I am not here 6 months yet so I am the perfect example for the table, vanilla PAYE.

Proves it's fake news, you are worse than Trump.

[eoghan104]

Thoughts on Griezman "blacking up" and all the outrage it has caused on social media?

[Iago]

What would a million give you per year, how is it split up?

V4V will have an educated answer but ive always worked off the basis of around 3.5k per 100k or so as an expectation.

generally you can take up to 25% as a tax free lump sum and if you're under 75 you'll have to put away (I think) about 75k or so into another pension pot that you can't access until you're 75.

Then the remainder at about 3.5%-4% a year

[eamonhonda]

Thoughts on Griezman "blacking up" and all the outrage it has caused on social media?

The usual, is it a huge deal? Probably not. Could have opened his eyes the last few years, learned from the experience of others and not be so stupid as a public figure? Absolutely

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Denny Crane]

What's the story with dental floss? I was in three supermarkets and none of them had it?

[Denny Crane]

Its a mad thing to be getting angry about really. But then again people do love being angry about stuff. You kinda want to let them be angry as it makes them happy to be angry, but realise it means nothing.

A guy went as Mo Farah to the last holloween party I was at. Don't think anyone said anything to him, but they were definitely thinking he was an awful eejit.

[DeadParrot]

Thoughts on Griezman "blacking up" and all the outrage it has caused on social media?

He's a fucking eejit.
However, I do remember dressing up as Mr.T one Halloween when I was about 10.

[Mellor]

Wha?

Say you have a 1.2m. And you need 80k to maintain a given lifestyle.
Each year you earn interest on the lump sum, but the 80k to maintain gets hit with inflation too. After 10 years you might need 120k to maintain.
I'm sure there's a sweet spot, but I don't know what it is

[Raoul Duke III]

Do you get an employer top up on that aswell? Had no idea people were saving those types of percentages in pensions.

Aren't you meant to be a behavioural economist?!

[Mellor]

Some insane noises going on outside the window the last few night. Actually sounds like somebody is using a squirrel to meat a turkey. I'd go investigate but it's probably some poisonous critter setting a trap.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Denny Crane]

Say you have a 1.2m. And you need 80k to maintain a given lifestyle.
Each year you earn interest on the lump sum, but the 80k to maintain gets hit with inflation too. After 10 years you might need 120k to maintain.
I'm sure there's a sweet spot, but I don't know what it is

Inflation has been very low the last ten years. Any reasonably aggressive strategy should be way ahead of inflation.

[Keane]

Say you have a 1.2m. And you need 80k to maintain a given lifestyle.
Each year you earn interest on the lump sum, but the 80k to maintain gets hit with inflation too. After 10 years you might need 120k to maintain.
I'm sure there's a sweet spot, but I don't know what it is

Oh ok, crossed purposes - I thought Tara was asking about a calculator that lets you adjust what interest you expect to earn between now and when you draw it down, i.e. what your final pot will be based on X% growth between now and 68.

[ionapaul]

One of the things I'd be very wary about when it comes to putting 'too' much away now in the pursuit of a really big pension pot when needed, is to recognise that

a) many people aren't putting away ANYTHING; in my place of about a dozen, think only three of us are availing of the pension, even though our employer puts a few % in! I feel confident in saying the vast, vast majority of people in Ireland are not building much of a pension
b) these people aren't going to be allowed starve when they retire, I don't doubt they will agitate for resources based on the old 'nobody told me I needed a pension/I didn't understand, I'm not a banker/etc etc etc... Presumably these people will still have the vote and will outnumber the prudent
c) the government has raided private pensions before and may/will do so again

I think if you build too big of a pot you're just going to end up with a bigger target on your back when the imprudent come calling. Those paid out of the public coffers will be immune, it will be the private pension holders without a strong lobby that get their pockets picked!

Maybe we should be all thinking about geo-political factors as well as strictly financial calculations when planning for retirement... I doubt I'll build >€1m of a private pension but if I did, you'd be damn sure that a good % of it would be domiciled on a small island somewhere where the government are unlikely to take some of it for whatever reason in the future! Maybe gold/bitcoin/bonds under the mattress or in a safe deposit box is the way to go

[DeadParrot]

speaking of bitcoin, interesting news in quantum computing there yesterday.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609804/a-startup-uses-quantum-computing-to-boost-machine-learning/

I wonder would that kind of thing would kill the crypto market completely

[Dice75]

One of the things I'd be very wary about when it comes to putting 'too' much away now in the pursuit of a really big pension pot when needed, is to recognise that

a) many people aren't putting away ANYTHING; in my place of about a dozen, think only three of us are availing of the pension, even though our employer puts a few % in! I feel confident in saying the vast, vast majority of people in Ireland are not building much of a pension
b) these people aren't going to be allowed starve when they retire, I don't doubt they will agitate for resources based on the old 'nobody told me I needed a pension/I didn't understand, I'm not a banker/etc etc etc... Presumably these people will still have the vote and will outnumber the prudent
c) the government has raided private pensions before and may/will do so again

I think if you build too big of a pot you're just going to end up with a bigger target on your back when the imprudent come calling. Those paid out of the public coffers will be immune, it will be the private pension holders without a strong lobby that get their pockets picked!

Maybe we should be all thinking about geo-political factors as well as strictly financial calculations when planning for retirement... I doubt I'll build >€1m of a private pension but if I did, you'd be damn sure that a good % of it would be domiciled on a small island somewhere where the government are unlikely to take some of it for whatever reason in the future! Maybe gold/bitcoin/bonds under the mattress or in a safe deposit box is the way to go

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um30Lbu6-nc

[Tar.Aldarion]

Oh ok, crossed purposes - I thought Tara was asking about a calculator that lets you adjust what interest you expect to earn between now and when you draw it down, i.e. what your final pot will be based on X% growth between now and 68.

That's what I was asking for.


Also as Denny said, at least since I started, my pension is way ahead of inflation.

[Mellor]

Oh ok, crossed purposes - I thought Tara was asking about a calculator that lets you adjust what interest you expect to earn between now and when you draw it down, i.e. what your final pot will be based on X% growth between now and 68.

Oh, he might have been. I imagine that calculator exists somewhere.

Inflation has been very low the last ten years. Any reasonably aggressive strategy should be way ahead of inflation.

It's been incredibly low. Which is only really relevant for somebody who retired 20 years ago. You and I will be looking to beat the inflation rate from 2050 or so.
It could probably still be beatable. Just pointing out growth in real terms is > capital growth.

[Keane]

That's what I was asking for.

The pension calculators seem to all be shite. Better off just using something like this

http://www.calculator.net/investment-calculator.html

[Solksjaer!]

What's the story with dental floss? I was in three supermarkets and none of them had it?

3 supermarkets are terrible. Last time I was there they just had phones. Everything else out of stock

[Raoul Duke III]

One of the things I'd be very wary about when it comes to putting 'too' much away now in the pursuit of a really big pension pot when needed, is to recognise that

a) many people aren't putting away ANYTHING; in my place of about a dozen, think only three of us are availing of the pension, even though our employer puts a few % in! I feel confident in saying the vast, vast majority of people in Ireland are not building much of a pension
b) these people aren't going to be allowed starve when they retire, I don't doubt they will agitate for resources based on the old 'nobody told me I needed a pension/I didn't understand, I'm not a banker/etc etc etc... Presumably these people will still have the vote and will outnumber the prudent
c) the government has raided private pensions before and may/will do so again

I think if you build too big of a pot you're just going to end up with a bigger target on your back when the imprudent come calling. Those paid out of the public coffers will be immune, it will be the private pension holders without a strong lobby that get their pockets picked!

Maybe we should be all thinking about geo-political factors as well as strictly financial calculations when planning for retirement... I doubt I'll build >€1m of a private pension but if I did, you'd be damn sure that a good % of it would be domiciled on a small island somewhere where the government are unlikely to take some of it for whatever reason in the future! Maybe gold/bitcoin/bonds under the mattress or in a safe deposit box is the way to go

like Malta eh......?

[Solksjaer!]

because woof

.

[Raoul Duke III]

Obviously V will give us all solid advice when the time comes.

For a suitably modest fee.

[Denny Crane]

I remember an article a few years ago about a guy settling a cash about moving his pension to Malta. Hopefully by the time we're old there'll be a functional European pension market, and we'll be free to move it around.

[Denny Crane]

Oh, he might have been. I imagine that calculator exists somewhere.


It's been incredibly low. Which is only really relevant for somebody who retired 20 years ago. You and I will be looking to beat the inflation rate from 2050 or so.
It could probably still be beatable. Just pointing out growth in real terms is > capital growth.

Would be curious about V's option but I imagine this environment is going to persist.

[V for Vendetta]

The question of how much to put aside and current vs future consumption has been done here periodically every 3-6 months or so. I don't have much to add at the moment as it seems to have been covered pretty well.

At the end of the day it's a personal choice and we all have competing financial goals and different timelines.

Something i feel is interesting, but I very rarely hear people talking about is their earning capacity in their later working years.

I get the sense that the average member of IPB is between 35-45 (with outliers like Tar and Strewel ) Now as you move into your late 40's the career game gets tricky, as you are likely at, or close to, your peak lifetime income. The question is can you maintain those earnings or will you get a bullet and struggle to get a job paying anything similar to what you earn now.

IF I continue to earn what I earn now until age 65 I'll be comfortable in retirement and I'll own a nice house outright and have a reasonable pension pot etc. Even if i only save 15-20% in a pension as long as I don't piss the after tax money away entirely on coke and hookers...

However, if I get a P45 sometime in my 50's, and nobody wants to hire me at anything close to what I'm on now, then things could get very interesting.

There's a lot of talk about expected returns and how much to save but what are you doing to protect and maintain your future income stream(s). Have you a side gig? Are you upskilling yourself? Growing your network etc?

I see people taking out insurance on lots of stuff that isn't particularly valuable, and yet they invest nothing to keep their future income expectations high.

I rarely hear people talking about this but I often see the consequences of people getting thrown on the scrap heap early and it's not pretty...you sometimes here people express the fear but little action until quite late in the day...

Recently, a 45 year old guy I know in a specialist job (aren't we all at some level specialists at that age) got the bullet from his job after 20 years. He's got two young kids and is trying to get another gig at the moment. Now the economy is going well, but there are few job openings for him that are going to pay him what he was earning before.

He's networking like mad and trying to get his name out there but I can't help but feeling he's left it a bit late. So has anyone on here got a plan to avoid your own obsolescence or a Plan B??

[Denny Crane]

I remember an article a few years ago about a guy settling a cash about moving his pension to Malta. Hopefully by the time we're old there'll be a functional European pension market, and we'll be free to move it around.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:0Ld7YNQGb9oJ:www.qropsspecialists.com/irish-pension-transfers-qrops-malta/+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

[Tar.Aldarion]

I remember an article a few years ago about a guy settling a cash about moving his pension to Malta. Hopefully by the time we're old there'll be a functional European pension market, and we'll be free to move it around.

We have some limited mobility right, can move it to the UK I think? For a few years at least

[Raoul Duke III]

So has anyone on here got a plan to avoid your own obsolescence or a Plan B??

there's always death

[Denny Crane]

He's networking like mad and trying to get his name out there but I can't help but feeling he's left it a bit late. So has anyone on here got a plan to avoid your own obsolescence or a Plan B??

Good topic imo. Think there's a good chance I'll have peaked in my twenties unfor

[V for Vendetta]

Would be curious about V's option but I imagine this environment is going to persist.

I wish I could call it. There is a wall of money waiting to buy bonds if interest rates tick up at all, and yet on the other hand the governments want to inflate their way out of debt, but if the current balance gets fucked up it may be very ugly...

Given that risk, a persistence of low interest rates and low inflation may be the least worse option...

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[V for Vendetta]

I remember an article a few years ago about a guy settling a cash about moving his pension to Malta. Hopefully by the time we're old there'll be a functional European pension market, and we'll be free to move it around.

You can move it to Malta and other European countries now. Portugal is another good spot to consider.

There are various hoops and regulations to get through but nothing too onerous...once you have a decent adviser

[Tar.Aldarion]

We already talk about bitcoin every day V?

Your point is something I think about a lot, but have put off as I have a few jobs above me I can get by just staying the course for now. Still, I think I need to start studying in the evenings and so on and actually thinking about what I would like to do. It's my favourite thing to avoid thinking about.

AI gonna everybodies plans up.

[V for Vendetta]

One of the things I'd be very wary about when it comes to putting 'too' much away now in the pursuit of a really big pension pot when needed, is to recognise that

a) many people aren't putting away ANYTHING; in my place of about a dozen, think only three of us are availing of the pension, even though our employer puts a few % in! I feel confident in saying the vast, vast majority of people in Ireland are not building much of a pension
b) these people aren't going to be allowed starve when they retire, I don't doubt they will agitate for resources based on the old 'nobody told me I needed a pension/I didn't understand, I'm not a banker/etc etc etc... Presumably these people will still have the vote and will outnumber the prudent
c) the government has raided private pensions before and may/will do so again

I think if you build too big of a pot you're just going to end up with a bigger target on your back when the imprudent come calling. Those paid out of the public coffers will be immune, it will be the private pension holders without a strong lobby that get their pockets picked!

Maybe we should be all thinking about geo-political factors as well as strictly financial calculations when planning for retirement... I doubt I'll build >€1m of a private pension but if I did, you'd be damn sure that a good % of it would be domiciled on a small island somewhere where the government are unlikely to take some of it for whatever reason in the future! Maybe gold/bitcoin/bonds under the mattress or in a safe deposit box is the way to go

My personal goal is 800k each for my Spouse and myself. 200k tax free each and take 4%p.a. from the remaining 1.2m and invest it to try and get a return of 1% above inflation.

I need to worry about sequencing risks and all sorts if I target an investment return of much more than that. Hopefully that size of a pot would last me for ~30 years.

48k gross in retirement income plus a 400k tax-free buffer and owning our own home outright is plenty. Social welfare pension on top from age 70 if we're lucky.

If I could achieve this by sometime in my 50s, so that I don't have to work so hard, nor sweat a round of redundancies etc would be good. Of course the reality is if I had this sort of financial security I'd be overburdened with job offers but that's just irony for ya.

[V for Vendetta]

We already talk about bitcoin every day V?

Your point is something I think about a lot, but have put off as I have a few jobs above me I can get by just staying the course for now. Still, I think I need to start studying in the evenings and so on and actually thinking about what I would like to do. It's my favourite thing to avoid thinking about.

AI gonna everybodies plans up.

It's funny in my gig the "right" answers are already well known but people need someone to hold their hand, and their feet to the fire on occasion. AI won't change that for the remainder of my career, but it will obviously crack that nut in time as well.

Investing in yourself in your 20's is super standard but a lot of people stop doing it in their 30s and 40s and it has ugly consequences. You're not really representative of this phenomenon Tar as you are (a) too young and (b) in IT where continuous development is more expected as the cycle of innovation is quicker.

If I was working in IT and wasn't continually upskilling myself i might as well be pulling the trigger for a bullet on myself.

[V for Vendetta]

Thats a sobering thought V!

There's nothing more sobering then sitting down with a bunch of uber qualified colleagues who are 10 years younger than you and as hungry as fuck.

CFAs, PhDs and closing in on 10 years experience and willing to work for a lot less money and all night long if necessary.

This line from Shakespeare goes through my head frequently these days

Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look

[Theresa]

We already talk about bitcoin every day V?

Your point is something I think about a lot, but have put off as I have a few jobs above me I can get by just staying the course for now. Still, I think I need to start studying in the evenings and so on and actually thinking about what I would like to do. It's my favourite thing to avoid thinking about.

AI gonna everybodies plans up.

I don’t think this is as big an issue as people make out. It won’t decimate industries for a long while yet. It will cause job loss but I think it’ll be a lot less than we think.

It’ll go the way of augmented intelligence for a long time first.

I’m currently the PO for an AI project, beta in Jan, and all research I’ve done has pointed the team to the fact that’s we need to solve the confidence issue first... and that’s usually means the ability to deal with a human at SOME stage.

The AI is impressive. It can read and answer your question... sometimes in pretty funny philosophical ways but at the end of the day... if users don’t think they will get a substantive answer they won’t use.

This leads me to think that no matter how far we go, a human interaction of some sort will be necessary for a long time yet.

[Guest]

Trip to dignitas at 65 or your getting fucked off a building by angry generation Zers whose future you stole

[Solksjaer!]

The ladybird book on being a DAD is very good.

[V for Vendetta]

I don’t think this is as big an issue as people make out. It won’t decimate industries for a long while yet. It will cause job loss but I think it’ll be a lot less than we think.

It’ll go the way of augmented intelligence for a long time first.

I’m currently the PO for an AI project, beta in Jan, and all research I’ve done has pointed the team to the fact that’s we need to solve the confidence issue first... and that’s usually means the ability to deal with a human at SOME stage.

The AI is impressive. It can read and answer your question... sometimes in pretty funny philosophical ways but at the end of the day... if users don’t think they will get a substantive answer they won’t use.

This leads me to think that no matter how far we go, a human interaction of some sort will be necessary for a long time yet.

Exactly Steve. And yet so many people focus on technical qualifications and are poor at communicating with clients. It actually cracks me up when I see it. A generation who would rather IM or email than actually speak to you and that’s the bit of the game that will be the first to go.