Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Strewelpeter]

Are you trying to tell us that you got confused about Selma Hyaks name or that you got her confused with Hillary Swank?

Both, senility bites

[V for Vendetta]

It's that time of year again - budget fever!

Always enjoy the predictions and the left-field suggestions that get fired around.

Anything interesting expected this time around?

Suspect we might see a few sops thrown to the good old middle income earners (maybe ~€40/month worth), hopefully some big investments in infrastructure too.

There hasn't been a decent budget in years. Death of a thousand cuts stuff.

Bring in a proper middle income tax band, raise the VAT back on the tourism sector and introduce a vacant land/property tax. Tax relief on childcare and higher level of social welfare benefit that drops every quarter if you don't get a job until you are in foodstamps and rent allowance after 12 months. Sell a few public sector assets that are underperforming CIE, BNM and a few others and use the cash to invest in infrastructure. Seek to get Ireland made a testing ground for self drive in Europe and set up an attractive relocation package for insurance companies in Ireland.

That's a few things off the top of my head...

Anyway nothing very much will happen with a minority government and everyone promised something so it will all be very marginal...

[RichieM]

It's that time of year again - budget fever!

Always enjoy the predictions and the left-field suggestions that get fired around.

Anything interesting expected this time around?

Suspect we might see a few sops thrown to the good old middle income earners (maybe ~€40/month worth), hopefully some big investments in infrastructure too.

nah its a tiny amount of money being spread round everyone and recouped by increasing booze and petrol.

Nothing interesting to see at all and basically the only thing that could be agreed on was to keep it all basically the same.

[RichieM]

There hasn't been a decent budget in years. Death of a thousand cuts stuff.

Bring in a proper middle income tax band, raise the VAT back on the tourism sector and introduce a vacant land/property tax. Tax relief on childcare and higher level of social welfare benefit that drops every quarter if you don't get a job until you are in foodstamps and rent allowance after 12 months. Sell a few public sector assets that are underperforming CIE, BNM and a few others and use the cash to invest in infrastructure. Seek to get Ireland made a testing ground for self drive in Europe and set up an attractive relocation package for insurance companies in Ireland.

That's a few things off the top of my head...

Anyway nothing very much will happen with a minority government and everyone promised something so it will all be very marginal...

I would be shocked if one of the above happens in the next 10 years

[V for Vendetta]

I would be shocked if one of the above happens in the next 10 years

True dat.

There's so much that could be done without actually costing a lot or else by radically changing spending and revenue raising habits but does anyone in the mainstream have the cahones anymore? The only ones saying anything radical are the AAA/PBP/SF/independent lunatics who know they'll never have to govern and are instead fighting it out for Facebook likes.

[TheDrunkenOne]

Can't see this author getting many pints bought for him in Irish pubs. Fake News?

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irishvoice/ireland-owes-oliver-cromwell-an-apology-says-this-irish-author

[MrsFlushdraw]

This seems like a really stupid plan, like who doesn't notices they suddenly have 1 click purchase on and just goes oh all right! Then they just accept the one random thing you bought before you figure it out?

Spammers must be out in force, they just tried to reset my facebook password. Bunts.

I had 1 click on, they didn't do it. Coming up to Christmas and Black Friday folks might order juicy things and they get that.

Yeah you're spot on. I'm actually that childish. Or maybe I go told today I have to cover a guy in work that has a wedding on Saturday

I was kidding Dobster! you on the Blob again?

[MrsFlushdraw]

Aimee's new school teacher is a bit of a celeb over here. Eurovision Fame lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFafomw2pUA

Miss Deborah Cassar

[Frank Gibney]

There hasn't been a decent budget in years. Death of a thousand cuts stuff.

Bring in a proper middle income tax band, raise the VAT back on the tourism sector and introduce a vacant land/property tax. Tax relief on childcare and higher level of social welfare benefit that drops every quarter if you don't get a job until you are in foodstamps and rent allowance after 12 months. Sell a few public sector assets that are underperforming CIE, BNM and a few others and use the cash to invest in infrastructure. Seek to get Ireland made a testing ground for self drive in Europe and set up an attractive relocation package for insurance companies in Ireland.

That's a few things off the top of my head...

Anyway nothing very much will happen with a minority government and everyone promised something so it will all be very marginal...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg

[Frank Gibney]

Aimee's new school teacher is a bit of a celeb over here. Eurovision Fame lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFafomw2pUA

Miss Deborah Cassar

[dobby]

Local butcher in Ashbourne won the Great Taste Good Food Award for his smoked black pudding last month. They started selling it this week and I just bought some. It is absolutely fantastic. There was.12,366 entrants from Ireland and the UK apparently so that's pretty impressive. Have also never heard of smoked black.pudding before

[oleras]

Budget 2017, should means test children's allowance...

[dobby]

Hope they hammer up the price of cigarettes again. Used that as motivation when I was trying to quit 4 years ago so always happy to see the price rise.

[Raoul Duke III]

Budget 2017, should means test children's allowance...

That's something I've been saying for years! Well I've been arguing for scrapping it altogether and replacing with tax allowances.

[DeadParrot]

Inski too, anyone else going?

8.30pm upstairs in Sheehans is the plan...

Arraghhh, thought this was friday, had a pint pass booked and told her that she was going out saturday and not to be giving me lackery.
bollox

[AndyFatBastard]

Arraghhh, thought this was friday, had a pint pass booked and told her that she was going out saturday and not to be giving me lackery.
bollox

I can do Friday too m8

[DeadParrot]

a few schneaky after work ones?

[AndyFatBastard]

a few schneaky after work ones?

Post-work pince #pwp

[darwinatemyhamster]

Thanks for the Revolut card suggestions, worked a treat without getting ripped off.

[Flushdraw]

Would you really not notice that the baldy guys are out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=82&v=60p7CcevOQI

[Lazare]

Prob didn't give a bollox tbf.

Those elite guys piss on themselves while running rather than stop.

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[Denny Crane]

Local butcher in Ashbourne won the Great Taste Good Food Award for his smoked black pudding last month. They started selling it this week and I just bought some. It is absolutely fantastic. There was.12,366 entrants from Ireland and the UK apparently so that's pretty impressive. Have also never heard of smoked black.pudding before

Pretty sure he invented it!

Can't see this author getting many pints bought for him in Irish pubs. Fake News?

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/ir...s-irish-author

"victuals" that's a new one.

He didn't cause much of a stir though

* Originally published in July 2014.

[RichieM]

I can do Friday too m8

Let me know where you lads head Friday. Have a boozy work afternoon so will be knocking around

[luckforsome]

...Wednesday night brag- Just finished packing my suitcase, off to USA...5 nights in New York and 4 nights in Las Vegas...Can't Fucking wait!!!...Surprised my GF with the trip, told her for her birthday last Thursday so a weeks notice 😃...

[carlop]

Haven't posted on here in a very long time but I'd love to get the all-knowing BBVs input on the classic topic of buying property.

I've started giving serious thought to buying a place for the first time. My sister had work done one her place recently, and seeing how great her place looks kind of made me realise that you can only really do proper work and make improvements you want to make to a place that is your own.

I'm also at an age (30) and stage of career where I'm putting away and accumulating enough money that I both have a deposit saved and shouldn't have too much problem in getting a mortgage.

My questions for the economic powerhouses of the BBV would be:

- Do we think property prices in Dublin are going to continue to rise for the foreseeable future?
- Is buying a place the logical move everyone says it is, or am I being suckered into the false logic that 'rent is dead money'?
- I'd be buying solo - does this just put me at such a disadvantage to double income couples that it becomes -EV to buy?

I don't have any urgent need to buy somewhere and live in a fine (though overpriced) apartment in Rathmines at the moment.

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[Keane]

Always find Ronan Lyons' calculator as an interesting jumping off point to thoughts about whether to buy something.

http://www.ronanlyons.com/2010/04/20/your-very-own-rent-or-buy-calculator

[DeadParrot]

@carlop

There's no reasonable chance of rent control in Ireland for the foreseeable future, so really you are forced to buy. Its just not realistic to be a long-term renter. The only issue is when to buy and where to buy.

I wouldn't bother doing any forecasting around future prices. They'll probably continue to rise at a decent rate, especially in Dublin due to lack of reasonable public transport outside of Dublin. I couldn't get a mortgage calculator to do this for me, but I'd imagine the average future Dublin family will be two people earning the today-equivalent of €50-60k each. So a reasonable upper end on the average house is whatever a couple earning €100-120k could afford to buy on a mortgage plus 20% deposit. Prices will probably rise towards that point over time.

The point is though that you said your reason for buying a house is you want something like your sister has that you can turn into your own. Would it really be worth waiting 10 years to do that if you want to do it now? A house isn't only an investment. Plus there's very little downside to buying now if you can afford it.

lol

[jack90210]

Plus there's very little downside to buying now if you can afford it.

lol

[6starpool]

On the property thing, while there are advantages to not renting, the advantages of not owning a home are more I think. If you have no family or long term partner that you live with or want to buy with, I probably wouldn't bother at this point. If you buy now, you may not be able to afford to buy somewhere you'd actually like to live. If you meet someone, you might decide together you want to buy elsewhere, or move somewhere else. Of course you can sell and buy again, or rent it out, but while there is some merit to the 'dead money' thing, you are saddled in a lot of other ways, plus the savings you have built up have gone on deposit and furnishing, etc.

If you can afford to buy somewhere you think you'd be happy with for years though, off you go. I'm not property expert, but prices will probably go up again for a few years but it could well correct downwards again after that. Who knows though, I'm 0% qualified to give advice.

[NewApproach]

Nothing stopping you selling the house either if you need to in a few years, albeit there's transaction costs of ~2% any time you buy or sell which aren't to be sniffed at.

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[Tar.Aldarion]

I got this one following Tars recommendation, its excellent. Hyper-powerful, does everything you'd need, plus gives you a grand in change on your 2k.

Nah man fuck that brand/company, they wouldn't give me that fancy free xbox controller because you bought from the french amazon instead of the UK one

[SatNav]

I don't get the lol? You think that's too high? I wouldn't say so. Poorer families are being pushed out of Dublin en masse, so that's pushing up the average family income of those remaining - and €50-60k per partner is average enough in decent jobs. It's the same in London with the poor being moved out, except they have social housing in some areas and we've got very little of that.

I would say avg wage in Ireland with both working prob something close to 60 k if even!

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[Guest]

I don't get the lol? You think that's too high? I wouldn't say so. Poorer families are being pushed out of Dublin en masse, so that's pushing up the average family income of those remaining - and €50-60k per partner is average enough in decent jobs. It's the same in London with the poor being moved out, except they have social housing in some areas and we've got very little of that.

Payscale has the average salary in Dublin currently at 36k. I actually thought that was rather high. I was comparing purchasing power in cities vs Dublin and it had salary of Dublin closer to 33k.
I understand what you're saying about more and more people being forced outside of Dublin but it would take quite the exodus to get there.
Do you think that will be the case in 10 years?

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[SatNav]

And the average Irish household can't buy in Dublin as a result.

It's €80-90k household earnings to buy in Dublin even now, and prices are still rising quickly. That's never coming down.

so best to buy kildare naas newbridge and commute , portlaoise. huge amount of dubs here and for 250 k you can get a fairly decent 4 bed detached, even though house prices in portlaioise are rising pretty quickly !

[ComradeCollie]

It's €80-90k household earnings to buy in Dublin even now, and prices are still rising quickly. That's never coming down.

Ah, I'm expecting the 2017-2019 Spanish Civil war to mix things up a bit

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[jack90210]

Quick check on BoI calculator: €100k per household, €50k per person gets you €350k mortgage. Good luck buying in a non-drug-den street-hooker street in Dublin with less than that size of mortgage.

hence the reason there is plenty of potential downside to buying now. The market is fundamentally flawed if the wage levels aren't there to support it. Lots based on real estate funds locking in CGT discount rate for holding for a few years.

[RichieM]

Quick check on BoI calculator: €100k per household, €50k per person gets you €350k mortgage. Good luck buying in a non-drug-den street-hooker street in Dublin with less than that size of mortgage.

A lot of exceptions flying round to get people higher. Nobody I know who has bought recently actually kept to the 3.5x

[CHDad]

Hitch should be rattled that nobody has accused him of telling. The white flag waving, cheese eating French surrender monkey.

Probably eats horse and snails the creep.

[V for Vendetta]

Interesting snippets in this article by Gordon D'Arcy about the post professional sport world. It must be a surreal experience for him. I'd say there's a good book or documentary in talking to ex pro sports people who take a complete move away from the sport and into a "normal" working life...

[ionapaul]

Worth remembering when it comes to Dublin house prices that a) lots of people who delay buying until their mid-30s (which is probably most people at this stage) will also come to the table with savings/investments in the six figures, which can be added to the amount they borrow and increase the upper limit of the houses they can afford and b) in a situation with limited supply the prices will be set at the margins, by the purchasers with the most advantages.

If there is only one house and the people interested in it are a four person family with one €50k earner, a four person family with two earners (€35k and €35k), a four person family with two earners (€50k + €50k) and a childless couple with two earners (€50k + €50k), the last ones obviously have the advantage and will be the ones that set the final price if they are interested enough to bid higher than the others. And that's ignoring the deposit amounts that any of the parties can bring. I know that's the most obvious example ever but it sometimes seems to be ignored by people; if supply outstrips demand people will then stop pushing prices up to the max they can afford but that's not the case at the moment in Dublin at least.

Beware the childless double-income couples with €250k in the bank, basically - it's hard to outbid them and there doesn't need to be too many of them around to drive up prices in a market with limited supply!

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[oleras]

Seat selection.

I booked flight to Koh Samui.

4 flights with 2 planes, 3 legs on the 777-300 and 1 on the A380.

The twin seats near the rear of the 777 seem the optimum, but last for the food, obv paying a premium to not have to talk to anyone.

On the A380 we can go upstairs, again, twin seats.

I could just wait till 48hrs before and take the free allocation, but don't want to end up in the middle of the middle row !

What are peoples personal preferences ?

[6starpool]

Don't sit near where they put the babies. Other than that anywhere with 2 seats just and I'm happy, although lots of planes don't do those unfortunately so it's crap choices all round unless you can book or pox an exit row.

[jack90210]

Exactly. Prices are set at the margins, so unless you own a house already then its the €100-120k couple who are setting Dublin prices. Doesn't take too long (15-20 years maybe) for that to become the default average income needed to live in Dublin, with everyone else pushed out.

Building much more houses doesn't even necessarily fix that as those houses are all going to be aimed at the €100-120k couple as thats the feasible building price range if it costs €330k just to build a standard 2-bed apartment. There's no realistic prospect of €60k couples owning in Dublin going forward, and thinking that planning reform can address that is the height of folly.

You do realise there's approx 500,000 households in Dublin. If you think there's anything close to 500,000 households in the entire country with average income of 100-120 you are deluded. Market is clearly extremely disfunctional at the moment for a large variety of reasons.

[Tar.Aldarion]

I sit in 26f, it's the best seat.

Who saves 250k before getting their mortgage?!

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[Dice75]

Exactly. Prices are set at the margins, so unless you own a house already then its the €100-120k couple who are setting Dublin prices. Doesn't take too long (15-20 years maybe) for that to become the default average income needed to live in Dublin, with everyone else pushed out.

Building much more houses doesn't even necessarily fix that as those houses are all going to be aimed at the €100-120k couple as thats the feasible building price range if it costs €330k just to build a standard 2-bed apartment. There's no realistic prospect of €60k couples owning in Dublin going forward, and thinking that planning reform can address that is the height of folly.

Nextdoor went on the market last week and is already pushing €40k over asking. Seems to be mostly couples with a couple of kids in tow trying to get out of appartments to somewhere with a back garden and green area. Most new developments these days are fairly cramped with no front garden/driveway/smaller square footage yet prices pitched at same level as superior local housing which in turn pushes up the prices of the established properties and the circle begins again.

Once you go above the €700k bracket you are competing with older downsizers who have the financial edge again driving the prices up.

[jack90210]

I see you missed the bit where I said "unless you own a house already". These are marginal effects. No biggie, but it does invalidate your entire point.


Plus your going to be sorely disappointed if you think property prices in Dublin are ever falling to a level where a €60k household is buying in Dublin. Thats just not the way it works.

And you maintain the marginal effects will last forever?

[Jibzzzz]

Seat selection.

I booked flight to Koh Samui.

4 flights with 2 planes, 3 legs on the 777-300 and 1 on the A380.

The twin seats near the rear of the 777 seem the optimum, but last for the food, obv paying a premium to not have to talk to anyone.

On the A380 we can go upstairs, again, twin seats.

I could just wait till 48hrs before and take the free allocation, but don't want to end up in the middle of the middle row !

What are peoples personal preferences ?

I always choose the back two. Not necessarily last for food either, sometimes you might get it first. You'll hit the jackpot the odd time when they load from the back too.

Do the same with the Cinema actually, always choose the two in the back corner.

[jack90210]

I always choose the back two. Not necessarily last for food either, sometimes you might get it first. You'll hit the jackpot the odd time when they load from the back too.

Do the same with the Cinema actually, always choose the two in the back corner.

Chance you will be stuck beside the toilet surely?

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[jack90210]

That the marginal effects eventually become the new averages. Which is incidentally exactly what has happened in London, Amsterdam, Toronto, Melbourne, to pick just a few examples I'm familiar with.

How long is the period your looking at? There has been housing booms all over the world recently and it's no concidence it has conicided with quanatitive easing.