Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Emmet]

Hah! the ref bottled the French's best efforts to give it away.

Don't think he can call a penalty without it being a penalty try as well.

ref fishtailed about trying to 'sort' this afterwards I think. Not sure Biggar actually scored!

[Hectorjelly]

Jesus Shed Seven sucked.

[Raoul Duke III]

A few years ago you made a number of similar remarks here, probably going much further than O'Leary did. These days, with Christain based Far-right terrorism being much more common, I often wonder do you ever look back and think you may have been mistaken.

Are you really claiming terrorist incidents are not primarily perpetrated by groups or individuals that claim to be Islamically-motivated?

Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram.

[Raoul Duke III]

There still exists a PIRA army council. Sinn Fein are still under it. So you could have the government of a modern democracy answering to an unelected leadership of an illegal organisation.

If you don't see this a fundamental issue of values then perhaps you simply don't share the values of most of us. We are not Northern Ireland, having Sinn Fein in power here is not a necessary evil in transitioning from conflict. We can apply normal values and standards as a normal democracy.

This is more fundamental than the political issues of the day, or party political issues, it's about the very fabric of our democracy.

As an example, you have the SF Finance Minister who had to get approval from the Army Council to sign off key governmental decisions in the North.

I suppose it might make Brexit talks more interesting.

"So we have agreement, excellent. Shake hands everyone. Wait; Mary Loo, where are you going? Don't you as Taoiseach of Ireland sign off?'

'Err, not just yet. Need to make a quick call.'

'Who to?'

'Gerry. Oh wait he was never in the IRA. Eh, Slab. Is that OK?'

[Hectorjelly]

Are you really claiming terrorist incidents are not primarily perpetrated by groups or individuals that claim to be Islamically-motivated?

Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram.

That's nonsense, but hat's off to you, it's quite a brilliant post. You manage to misrepresent what I said, make a grand claim that is completely inconsequential and ignore the thrust of what I said.

[Raoul Duke III]

Are you really claiming terrorist incidents are not primarily perpetrated by groups or individuals that claim to be Islamically-motivated?

Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram.

Interesting reading here. Although obviously a rather depressing subject.

15,952 deaths by terrorism in 2018. (This is actually a huge fall over the last few years.)
The aforementioned Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram were responsible for well over 50% of all terrorist murders. All of these are clearly Islamic in nature.

Far-right groups were responsible for 26 terrorist murders in 2018. Or 0.16% of all terrorist murders. That did increase to 77 in 2019.

[Raoul Duke III]

That's nonsense, but hat's off to you, it's quite a brilliant post. You manage to misrepresent what I said, make a grand claim that is completely inconsequential and ignore the thrust of what I said.

What are you saying? If you could spell it out in logical sentences, that would be great.

[shrapnel]

ref fishtailed about trying to 'sort' this afterwards I think. Not sure Biggar actually scored!

IMO he lost control, but ball was caught ans then held against him by a French player.

[Hectorjelly]

What are you saying? If you could spell it out in logical sentences, that would be great.

I would be tempted to, but the tone of this sentence really puts me off. Why would I
bother? I don't think you are capable of changing your mind.

[Raoul Duke III]

IMO he lost control, but ball was caught ans then held against him by a French player.

It was a great game. That team will have learnt so much from that today.

Until we beat you to Le Grand Chelem on your own pitch in a few weeks.

[Raoul Duke III]

I would be tempted to, but the tone of this sentence really puts me off. Why would I
bother? I don't think you are capable of changing your mind.

I genuinely don't know what you are saying. Your tone is argumentative but you don't seem to have a coherent position.

For the avoidance of any possible doubt, I was responding to the O'Leary comment. I pointed out that, statistically, most terrorist attacks are perpetrated by groups that are Islamic in nature. This is of course true.

And now you seem to be in a fury about this but I'm not sure why.

[shrapnel]

It was a great game. That team will have learnt so much from that today.

Until we beat you to Le Grand Chelem on your own pitch in a few weeks.

Lol, could be a great final. Actually thought Wales were going to get there

[LuckyLloyd]

There still exists a PIRA army council. Sinn Fein are still under it. So you could have the government of a modern democracy answering to an unelected leadership of an illegal organisation.

If you don't see this a fundamental issue of values then perhaps you simply don't share the values of most of us. We are not Northern Ireland, having Sinn Fein in power here is not a necessary evil in transitioning from conflict. We can apply normal values and standards as a normal democracy.

This is more fundamental than the political issues of the day, or party political issues, it's about the very fabric of our democracy.

The first part is unproven by the report referenced. Though PIRA members apparently “believe” that to be the case. Nonetheless, the business and building interests that revolve around senior levels of FFG are unelected. Is that a ‘fundamental issue of values’? Because fundamentally all parties have unelected advisors and staff that input on strategy and policy. And Leo is answerable to people in FG you never heard of, who never ran for election. And the report referenced here was categorical in its assertion that any of the unelected members “believed” to be involved with SF at senior levels were fully committed to democracy. So what’s the issue here really?

I certainly don’t share the values of people who like to pretend Northern Ireland is some remote experience in Siberia. It’s one Ireland and one peace process overwhelmingly voted for by all of Ireland which is consistently undermined by FFG looking to score political points. If your faux moralising is indicative of your values I’m very comfortable going the other way.

But, again, keep forever dragging up the past while SF and others focus on the now and the future. I don’t think it benefits FFG and it certainly doesn’t benefit the electorate.

[Lazare]

Lloyd, do you believe thinking people within SF are strategising right now for a period in opposition, with a FFG govt?

SF have always been a long game party, it does seem strategically to be the best move.

Their electorate (some sections) are talking about marching the streets if they're not in government. SF reps are on all the airwaves talking about wanting to lead a government.
They promised change, the establishment blocked them is a powerful narrative.

[Raoul Duke III]

But, again, keep forever dragging up the past while SF and others focus on the now and the future. I don’t think it benefits FFG and it certainly doesn’t benefit the electorate.

But it's not the past Lloyd.

I mean why on earth would Martin O'Muilleoir (Finance Minister) have to check with a shadowy (hint, hint) best buddy of Gerry Adams (who was never in the IRA, of course) as to whether his line on the RHI scandal was appropriate.

It seems like SF don't like the spotlight being turned on them...but when you are a serious candidate for government, which they now are for the first time, it comes with the job. So, Cullinane roaring 'Up the RA' at his election celebration, your new TD posting some pretty batshit-crazy stuff on social media or indeed, both the British and Irish security services saying that they believe the Army Council still controls SF policy, then citizens are entitled to look at these things and make their minds up about them. Maybe they will think it doesn't matter but we are very much entitled to the facts.

[Raoul Duke III]

Lloyd, do you believe thinking people within SF are strategising right now for a period in opposition, with a FFG govt?

SF have always been a long game party, it does seem strategically to be the best move.

Their electorate (some sections) are talking about marching the streets if they're not in government. SF reps are on all the airwaves talking about wanting to lead a government.
They promised change, the establishment blocked them is a powerful narrative.

Strategically, (and I think Pat Leahy said this today in the IT, so I'll give him the credit), SF have no bad options.

1. Go into government, they take power at a time when the economy is rocketing along and unemployment is at a record low. They can therefore hand out some sweeties to their base without upsetting the apple cart too much. Most importantly, and I don't think people talk about this enough, the idea of SF in government becomes normalised - people will view them differently and they will become a natural choice to lead the country. No small achievement.
   
2. Don't go into government. They can position themselves as the populist opposition to 'FFG' and set themselves up as a the natural replacement party. As you say, they are very much a party that thinks in decades. They are also a party with very little depth in talent (as we've seen from some of the muppetry in the last week) so this would give them an opportunity to freshen up their talent pool.

The downsides to (1) would be the Labour effect. They have undoubtedly overpromised versus what is actually deliverable. Voters have long memories and would punish them.

The possible downside to (2) is potentially what happened to FG in the 1997-2007 period. The economy keeps roaring ahead. Voters become happy and complacent, leading them to view SF as a potential risk to prosperity.

(2) makes more sense to me.

[Raoul Duke III]

But let's focus on the real big issues of the day here. For the last 12 months, rounders has been going around with a swelled head, thinking he's the man.



Sign up to the Cheltenham Tipping Comp today and let's cut that mofo down to size.

[LuckyLloyd]

Lloyd, do you believe thinking people within SF are strategising right now for a period in opposition, with a FFG govt?

SF have always been a long game party, it does seem strategically to be the best move.

Their electorate (some sections) are talking about marching the streets if they're not in government. SF reps are on all the airwaves talking about wanting to lead a government.
They promised change, the establishment blocked them is a powerful narrative.

I think SF have nothing to fear from another election and agree being leaders of the opposition for a FFG + Greens government could be advantageous strategically. That said, I think if one side of FFG wanted to put their big boy pants on and negotiate as equals SF would do a deal. And let’s face it, if FF had got ~10 seats more the negotiations would already have been underway because FF could have tried to treat SF as a junior partner and do a deal on a FG / Labour 2011 type basis.

[Raoul Duke III]

And let’s face it, if FF had got ~10 seats more the negotiations would already have been underway because FF could have tried to treat SF as a junior partner and do a deal on a FG / Labour 2011 type basis.

Do you really think so? I'm not much of a fan of Mehole Martin but his stance towards SF has been very consistent (whether you agree with it or not).

[Lazare]

Strategically, (and I think Pat Leahy said this today in the IT, so I'll give him the credit), SF have no bad options.

1. Go into government, they take power at a time when the economy is rocketing along and unemployment is at a record low. They can therefore hand out some sweeties to their base without upsetting the apple cart too much. Most importantly, and I don't think people talk about this enough, the idea of SF in government becomes normalised - people will view them differently and they will become a natural choice to lead the country. No small achievement.
   
2. Don't go into government. They can position themselves as the populist opposition to 'FFG' and set themselves up as a the natural replacement party. As you say, they are very much a party that thinks in decades. They are also a party with very little depth in talent (as we've seen from some of the muppetry in the last week) so this would give them an opportunity to freshen up their talent pool.

The downsides to (1) would be the Labour effect. They have undoubtedly overpromised versus what is actually deliverable. Voters have long memories and would punish them.

The possible downside to (2) is potentially what happened to FG in the 1997-2007 period. The economy keeps roaring ahead. Voters become happy and complacent, leading them to view SF as a potential risk to prosperity.

(2) makes more sense to me.

Very interesting. I don't think enough time will play out for the downsides of option 2 to materialise. We're assuming FF and FG are ready for a strong grand coalition.

SP posted something very thought provoking a few weeks ago. What we could well end up with is a breaking up of FF. The pro enterprise wing forming up with FG and the civil war side defecting to SF creating two large opposing parties juggling power for generations.

[Raoul Duke III]

SP posted something very thought provoking a few weeks ago. What we could well end up with is a breaking up of FF. The pro enterprise wing forming up with FG and the civil war side defecting to SF creating two large opposing parties juggling power for generations.

I'd say overall FF are far closer to FG than SF. In fact, when you look at their policies, that is very evident.

I also think Labour, the Greens and the SD are also closer to the centre than they are to SF.

I love using that litmus test of 'who do they sit with in Europe?' to gauge where a party really lies on the spectrum. SF are way out on the left with all the Proto-Commies.
The rest by contrast all sit in the mainstream social democrat or socialist groupings.

[premierstone]

Do you really think so? I'm not much of a fan of Mehole Martin but his stance towards SF has been very consistent (whether you agree with it or not).

He was backtracking like fcuk the night of and day after the election, obviously got put in his place by whomever actually makes the decisions, all elected im sure!

[Raoul Duke III]

For info, FG are EPP. FF are ALDE.
So very much adjacent in the centre of the spectrum.

SF by comparison are all the way out there with GUE-NGL.

[Lazare]

I think SF have nothing to fear from another election and agree being leaders of the opposition for a FFG + Greens government could be advantageous strategically. That said, I think if one side of FFG wanted to put their big boy pants on and negotiate as equals SF would do a deal. And let’s face it, if FF had got ~10 seats more the negotiations would already have been underway because FF could have tried to treat SF as a junior partner and do a deal on a FG / Labour 2011 type basis.

Just as the best play for SF now is a FFG govt, the best play for FFG is a SF led left govt.

Long term I think another election in the coming weeks is far more beneficial strategically for FF and FG than a grand coalition.

The time for a FF FG grand coalition is after a SF government term, not before it.

[Raoul Duke III]

Just as the best play for SF now is a FFG govt, the best play for FFG is a SF led left govt.

1. It would need either FF or FG to agree to prop it up.Which they won't.
   
2. The Irish 'left' is impossibly fragmented and contains a vast number of loudmouths who would run a mile at the thought of actually having to govern. See: Murphy, Paul.

[Raoul Duke III]

Do we think the average Green or SD voter is closer to SF or FG?

Certainly in my constituency, where we have one of each, voting Green or SD is very much a middle class pursuit.

[Lazare]

1. It would need either FF or FG to agree to prop it up.Which they won't.
   
2. The Irish 'left' is impossibly fragmented and contains a vast number of loudmouths who would run a mile at the thought of actually having to govern. See: Murphy, Paul.

What would you prefer in this climate? A FFFG Green govt or back to the polls?

I do think the latter is the better option from FG's pov.

[LuckyLloyd]

Do you really think so? I'm not much of a fan of Mehole Martin but his stance towards SF has been very consistent (whether you agree with it or not).

Except for when he was interviewed after finally getting his seat with the belief they’d manage 45+ seats. All about representing democratic mandates then. 24 hours later after they had won the same amount of seats (+ retaining the CC) he was back on message.

[Raoul Duke III]

Except for when he was interviewed after finally getting his seat with the belief they’d manage 45+ seats. All about representing democratic mandates then. 24 hours later after they had won the same amount of seats (+ retaining the CC) he was back on message.

It wasn't exactly a 'come and get me' plea. And as you say, he's been very much consistent otherwise.

So I think it will be FFG. Rotating Taoiseach with Mehole getting first cut. I think the Greens absolutely have to be in government, given our dire climate change record. And the SDs, so that Shortall can be given the blame for become Minister of Health.

And we'll go again in 2024.

[balfejohn]

What would you prefer in this climate? A FFFG Green govt or back to the polls?

I do think the latter is the better option from FG's pov.

If mehole doesn’t get in as leader of the next government he will be pushed to the side
He’s a lame duck if he can’t strike a deal for some years as leader
I feel a second election will play into sf hands as people are sick of hearing and not doing and just want to see a fresh face

[Raoul Duke III]

I do think the latter is the better option from FG's pov.

FG need the Greens and SDs in government. So they can reclaim their middle class votes from them when the Labour Effect kicks in.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Guest]

I think if you asked FG & FF immediately post election how they'd feel about a 2nd election, they would have been very pessimistic about it.

However, I believe in light of various events which have arisen since then, the same question may now elicit a more sanguine response.

The polls don't indicate it as of yet but I don't believe the 10+ seat bump SF envisage will materialise. I actually question if any at all will happen.
A 2nd election looks likely because FF/FG don't want to do a deal both strategically & politically plus SF are understandably riding a wave of hubris that wont be easily reigned in.

Personally, I'd be all for going again and if people choose to give SF the additional seats they need to form a government then so be it.

I'd far prefer that result than the inevitable fragmentation and instability that will exist from a left wing coalition of people who have little interest in actually making decisions.

I obviously don't support SF's key overt machinations and I question the feasibility of their policies.
Not to mention I think the idea that the directives SF get from PAC are the same as those Leo/FG get from their "secret council" is an incredible false equivalence.

Nevertheless, a 2nd election will likely give a clearer picture for all which is the best thing for the country moving forward.

[Guest]

Good to see MI5 being quoted as if they are just a well respected and impartial news wire service

[LuckyLloyd]

I think if you asked FG & FF immediately post election how they'd feel about a 2nd election, they would have been very pessimistic about it.

However, I believe in light of various events which have arisen since then, the same question may now elicit a more sanguine response.

The polls don't indicate it as of yet but I don't believe the 10+ seat bump SF envisage will materialise. I actually question if any at all will happen.
A 2nd election looks likely because FF/FG don't want to do a deal both strategically & politically plus SF are understandably riding a wave of hubris that wont be easily reigned in.

Personally, I'd be all for going again and if people choose to give SF the additional seats they need to form a government then so be it.

I'd far prefer that result than the inevitable fragmentation and instability that will exist from a left wing coalition of people who have little interest in actually making decisions.

I obviously don't support SF's key overt machinations and I question the feasibility of their policies.
Not to mention I think the idea that the directives SF get from PAC are the same as those Leo/FG get from their "secret council" is an incredible false equivalence.

Nevertheless, a 2nd election will likely give a clearer picture for all which is the best thing for the country moving forward.

Post election poll in the Irish Daily Mail on Wednesday:

SF 35%
FG 18%
FF 17%
Green 9%
Ind 7%
Soc Dems 5%
Labour 3%
Sol-PBP 3%
Others 4%

[hotspur]

If your faux moralising is indicative of your values I’m very comfortable going the other way.

Don't accuse me of faux moralising. You have no basis for that comment. Just because you disagree with my morals you have no right to call it faux. I am not doubting your sincerity in your beliefs which I disagree with, it reflects very poorly on you that you don't extend the same decency.

I deleted the sections in a longer post addressing your other comments because I don't believe you deserve to be treated with the respect and attention I would ordinarily give after the faux moralising comment.

[Guest]

Post election poll in the Irish Daily Mail on Wednesday:

SF 35%
FG 18%
FF 17%
Green 9%
Ind 7%
Soc Dems 5%
Labour 3%
Sol-PBP 3%
Others 4%

It's a personal opinion.

As I said in the post, I acknowledge the opinion polls don't agree with my opinion.

I suspect we'll get the opportunity to see though.

[Guest]

Good to see MI5 being quoted as if they are just a well respected and impartial news wire service

Their thoroughness and world leading capabilities were lauded prior to this element of the discussion surfacing.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Guest]

I was recently told by a family member of an elected official that it effectively costs approx 60k to run for a seat.

That's very anecdotal now and I have no idea how much the candidate themselves invests but perhaps costs are a factor.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[hotspur]

A number of prisoners were involved in a hostage situation at the Midlands Prison in Portlaoise this week.

The incident began at around 3pm on Thursday.

Three prisoners - one armed with a weapon- took another inmate hostage and barricaded themselves into a cell at the Midlands Prison on Thursday afternoon.

Specialist officers were called in along with trained negotiators.

After a five hour standoff, one of the prisoners agreed to open the cell and exchange the weapon for a mars bar.

No staff were injured during the incident and the prisoners involved received only minor injuries.

Senior Management at the Prison have begun an investigation into the incident.

.

[Silver-Tiger]

Stick in a party or Candidate in here. It's interesting to see what they spent on FB/Insta on their campaigns.

https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=all&country=IE&impression_search_field=has_impressions_lifetime

[Guest]

Stick in a party or Candidate in here. It's interesting to see what they spent on FB/Insta on their campaigns.

https://www.facebook.com/ads/library...sions_lifetime

That's interesting.

Varadker over 18k spent and has 42k likes.

Mary Lou <100e spent and 130k likes.

Obviously ages, base etc all very different between both but interesting nonetheless that the leader of the most popular party among social media users has no FB spend.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Solksjaer!]

This is a wee bit scary on just how contagious the coronavirus is, pretty much in our backyard.

But but you said.....?

[Guest]

This is a wee bit scary on just how contagious the coronavirus is, pretty much in our backyard.

I have a break in Italy booked for April, it's a bit early to move anything yet given it's almost certain to reach our shores too but I suspect she'll want to move it.

This is the dashboard I was sent in work, not sure if it's been shared here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

[Goodluck2me]

Are you really claiming terrorist incidents are not primarily perpetrated by groups or individuals that claim to be Islamically-motivated?

Because they are. That's just a fact. The most deadly terrorist groups by a mile are the Taliban, Islamic State and Boko Haram.

If you narrowed it down to say just the US you’d see white males as by far the worst perpetrator of mass shootings.

Do we think the average Green or SD voter is closer to SF or FG?

Certainly in my constituency, where we have one of each, voting Green or SD is very much a middle class pursuit.

The greens, upon mature reflection, were way further left than I had imagined. Wealth taxes, high marginals etc.

I think the Greens absolutely have to be in government, given our dire climate change record. .

Really? I think FG and Labour did a good job here, Rabbitte in particular as minister of energy.

Aren't close second elections famously difficult in Ireland as the parties just can't afford them? Similar to how they try not to run candidates in presidential elections.

I can see FG picking up a few extra seats. Maybe five or so. SF maybe an extra five. They'll really struggle to get double seats in most places as there just isn't the protest vote there. FF might stay the same. A few losses for Greens and SocDems as the borrowed votes from FG go back home. Its all very well voting for nice cycling paths in the Greens but if your environmental vote in a nice part of Dublin is getting SF into power you'll think twice. Who knows though.

Fair comment.

[Kayroo]

Don't accuse me of faux moralising. You have no basis for that comment. Just because you disagree with my morals you have no right to call it faux. I am not doubting your sincerity in your beliefs which I disagree with, it reflects very poorly on you that you don't extend the same decency.

I deleted the sections in a longer post addressing your other comments because I don't believe you deserve to be treated with the respect and attention I would ordinarily give after the faux moralising comment.

Making the sort of comment Lloyd did there is effectively arguing in bad faith. It was unwarranted, particularly for you Hotspur. I don’t think anyone here could possibly doubt that any moral position or view you hold is both genuine and very well thought through.

[Guest]

Highlight of the Fury vs Wilder bout:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbH0eAoaHOo&feature=youtu.be

[Solksjaer!]

Which of these fine gentlemen will blink first and eject the baubles out of the prambulator.


Heckle V Jeckle (remember them?)

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Solksjaer!]

Yeah don't listen to that gobshite. Shut.down.everything and stop eating pasta for the love of god you'll kill us all.

They will be attacking my front door with pickaxes to get at my collection of mysterious cans of food . I knew this day was coming . I'm stacked and ready for the long haul. Have the 1st victims shown signs of zombieism yet ?

[Lazare]

lol, this is good..

[hotspur]

Have the 1st victims shown signs of zombieism yet ?

I'm not getting worried until I hear that North Korea has pulled the teeth of the whole population.

[KevIRL]

This is a wee bit scary on just how contagious the coronavirus is, pretty much in our backyard.

3 Serie A games postponed today, shit has v much gotten real

[Raoul Duke III]

If you narrowed it down to say just the US you’d see white males as by far the worst perpetrator of mass shootings.
.

I'm sure you are correct. But that is an entirely different topic.

The greens, upon mature reflection, were way further left than I had imagined. Wealth taxes, high marginals etc.

I don't think their Irish voters reflect that though. As I think we all agree, they are largely middle-class and urban.

Really? I think FG and Labour did a good job here, Rabbitte in particular as minister of energy.

We're at the very bottom of the European pack in terms of reaching our climate change commitments. The government has failed to provide leadership and has repeatedly ducked hard decisions.

Sidebar to me shouting at my tv last night when some sodden culchie was whining about the Shannon flooding. If farmers hadn't destroyed all the natural drainage, then we wouldn't have this problem. Rural folk are by far our worst climate change actors. And the biggest deniers!

[Strewelpeter]

If your faux moralising is indicative of your values I’m very comfortable going the other way.

When you lie down with dogs you get up with fleas

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Raoul Duke III]

Will be hilarious for the Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Jains, and Buddhists.

Do Buddhists not eat pork?

Jainism is something else, Tar should look into it.