GAA Betting Thread

[rogcn]

Connaght Championship

What are people's opinion on this?

I just can't get over that Mayo are 11/10 with Will Hill..

I would have made them a 4/6 shot

[Johnny Tightlips]

Well lads first post here, been a long time reader of the board as well as a long time gambler. Thought id join as 80% of my betting is on GAA and there is plenty of sensible discussion. Personally I feel that GAA is the best sport to bet on, in terms of being able to find out information the bookie cant find out and the general poor judgement of certain teams. Im from tyrone and i think il start posting up my bets in an effort to try and hopefully help use lads and also keep me disciplined. I firmly agree that cork will beat galway on saturday and it will be one of my biggest bets of the year.

[Keane]

What are people's opinion on this?

I just can't get over that Mayo are 11/10 with Will Hill..

I would have made them a 4/6 shot

depends what prices you make them against all the other teams they could meet. They have Galway up first if I remember, what price you make them for that game?

[Semibluff]

What are people's opinion on this?

I just can't get over that Mayo are 11/10 with Will Hill..

I would have made them a 4/6 shot

Interesting one alright. Last year I backed mayo at 4/6, I also topped up at 4/5 after galway won so convincingly in their first game. By that premise alone they should be a bet here at odds against for sure.

They do have injury concerns and certainly arent playing as fluently as the year before.

Also theres a worry with team the public "know about" - by default normally they arent a great price the corresponding year due to the knee jerk.

Add to that the "hangover" affect. Teams who do remarkably well, or better than they should often cant come back and repeat such heroics. This is obviously more evident in amateur sports (of which GAA is one)

Dublin after winning the all ireland. They certainly spent too long on the tiles and at the opening of envelopes the following year to warrant their price for sam the following year.

Louth in the leinster final

Down when they were AI finalists.

these are just off the top of my head. but its not coincidence.

Add this to the fact that the Conn teams cant be as weak again. Rem Mayo winning Conn final in absolute 3rd gear.

Leitrim have emerged as a good team. Galway have to be better. Rosc and sligo are a little tougher also.

With injuries to key players and form not the best for mayo (I watched them in Newry this year and was massively un-impressed) I wouldnt be rushing to back them to dodge the Conn minefield again in a hurry. I wouldnt be surprised to see them win it - or go far even if they get knocked out.

But maybe just assessing each game individually and doing some punting on the match odds is a safer option until we are fully sure what Mayo is turning up

Well lads first post here, been a long time reader of the board as well as a long time gambler. Thought id join as 80% of my betting is on GAA and there is plenty of sensible discussion. Personally I feel that GAA is the best sport to bet on, in terms of being able to find out information the bookie cant find out and the general poor judgement of certain teams. Im from tyrone and i think il start posting up my bets in an effort to try and hopefully help use lads and also keep me disciplined. I firmly agree that cork will beat galway on saturday and it will be one of my biggest bets of the year.

We're can hardly expect to get much info from you

[The Situation]

Re Kildare's number of wides against Galway, would shooting inaccuracy be a regular occurrence in their matches or was that a particular anomaly, like if it was just an off game could you look at the sheer number of chances created as a big positive?

[Keane]

Re Kildare's number of wides against Galway, would shooting inaccuracy be a regular occurrence in their matches or was that a particular anomaly, like if it was just an off game could you look at the sheer number of chances created as a big positive?

Their shot selection was atrocious in several instances but they also missed some gimmes.

WRT the final, as you said you have to consider the amount of chances created as a big negative for Galway. There's a piece in the Kildare Nationalist that analyzes it pretty well, with this excerpt being pretty telling:

Fionn Dowling might have kicked six wides, including four in the first half, but he was out in front of his man every time and shooting from good positions. Of the 20 shots Kildare had at the target in the first half, half of them (10) came from inside the 20-metre line.

Kildare had seven shots in front of the uprights – two inside the 20 metre line and five inside the 45 – yet they only scored three. Twice in the first half Sean Hurley kicked shots into the keeper’s hands from not much more than 25 metres.

http://www.kildare-nationalist.ie/2013/04/24/orchestrating-their-own-downfall/

As for the rest, they were at times from unadvisable positions, but they weren't exactly trying for wunderpoints either.

Their wides tally was not in that order during the Leinster Championship.

[The Situation]

Their shot selection was atrocious in several instances but they also missed some gimmes.

WRT the final, as you said you have to consider the amount of chances created as a big negative for Galway. There's a piece in the Kildare Nationalist that analyzes it pretty well, with this excerpt being pretty telling:

http://www.kildare-nationalist.ie/2013/04/24/orchestrating-their-own-downfall/

As for the rest, they were at times from unadvisable positions, but they weren't exactly trying for wunderpoints either.

Their wides tally was not in that order during the Leinster Championship.

Any sites that do simple stats like shooting efficiency from their other games this year?

How much are you weighing their poor performance in the semi into pricing the final?

[Keane]

Any sites that do simple stats like shooting efficiency from their other games this year?

Very little stats available in GAA unfortunately. Best bets are always Kildare Nationalist for Kildare games, or Action81/dontfoul for others. Hit and miss though.

How much are you weighing their poor performance in the semi into pricing the final?

Galway? That performance has "confirmed" suspicions that their price has been based pretty much solely on the fact that they beat Cavan by a large margin in 2011, rather than the bookies having spent much (any) time figuring out how good these teams are in 2013.

I would have made it something like this before the provincial finals:

Cork -0.75
Kildare -0.25
Cavan +0.00
Galway +1

[Semibluff]

teams are priced on favouritism in previous matches , with last one weighing heaviestly. So results based
if you can bring in RELEVANT stats to a previous result or match, you are miles ahead of the field.

as david said @dontfoul is one of the best stats guys on GAA

[Keane]

Wouldn't underestimate the competition in Connacht FWIW.

Mayo are comfortably the best team in the province but comfortably best still only means 3-5 points better on average, throw in pretty serious injury concerns and if they have to play away from home and you're not exactly lock of the week all of a sudden.

Roscommon are a team that have serious talent but haven't been able to put together a coherent gameplan over the last couple of years. IMHO John Evans isn't the man to sort it out for them as "incoherent" is the exact word I often used to describe my club's tactics when he managed us, but they're probably a good bit better than they've shown in the past couple of years.

Mayo aren't as good as people think either tbh.

[KevIRL]

Waterford minor hurlers -2pts @ evs for tomorrow nights game v Clare. Snaffling this even though minor can be so unpredictable. Waterford with some v good success at colleges level and the excellent Patrick Curran playing too and home advantage.

Just the 17 points in it at the end. Waterford 4-18 Clare 1-10

[tipp86]

Weird Tipp team named for the league final.

Tipp Team v Kilkenny:
Gleeson
Cahill OMahony P Curran
K Bergin P Maher C OBrien
B Maher S McGrath
Callanan Corbett P Maher
S Bourke Kelly N McGrath

Gleeson over Cummins.

O'Mahony Full back and Curran in the corner.

Bergin making his debut.

McGrath back in the corner.

[KevIRL]

Weird Tipp team named for the league final.

Tipp Team v Kilkenny:
Gleeson
Cahill OMahony P Curran
K Bergin P Maher C OBrien
B Maher S McGrath
Callanan Corbett P Maher
S Bourke Kelly N McGrath

Gleeson over Cummins.

O'Mahony Full back and Curran in the corner.

Bergin making his debut.

McGrath back in the corner.

Both Maher's fit and start. Thats quite the formidable forward line, dry day expected Sunday as well. Quite like the thoughts of the overs for this one. Also have a sneaking suspicion for Tipp on Sunday, just think that they are the more balanced team atm.

[KevIRL]

KK league final team from KK

E Murphy P Murphy JJ Delaney J Tyrrell T Walsh B Hogan K Joyce L Ryan M Fennelly C Buckley M Rice E Larkin C Fennelly R Hogan A Fogarty

[Johnny Tightlips]

What are your opinions on new york +11 on boylesports? Letrim had a good start to the year, but did not built upon that and had a poor league campaign winning 3 out of their 7. Given the fact that they are playing in a different climate, surface and country 11 points seems like a big handicap. New york seem to have a couple of v.good forwards in Rory Woods (former monaghan ff) and Conor Lynam (Former westmeath forward). If they could contain Emlyn Mulligan (Luis suarez) Letrim will struggle massively. Any opinions?

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[conspicuous]

Well done to the Galway u21's who beat Cork in tonight's final. Some fantastic footballers in their side and they were again a joy to watch

[Donk Magnet]

We're we watching the same game??

[kpnuts]

What are your opinions on new york +11 on boylesports? Letrim had a good start to the year, but did not built upon that and had a poor league campaign winning 3 out of their 7. Given the fact that they are playing in a different climate, surface and country 11 points seems like a big handicap. New york seem to have a couple of v.good forwards in Rory Woods (former monaghan ff) and Conor Lynam (Former westmeath forward). If they could contain Emlyn Mulligan (Luis suarez) Letrim will struggle massively. Any opinions?

Rory Woods out injured according to Irish Times feature yesterday. Seen Mulligan play a few times, easier said than done containing him and NY conceded 3-21 in each of their last 2 champo games. 11pt cap looks about right to me, that's what Leitrim won by last meeting 2008.

[tipp86]

Not been at this hurling game today is going to kill me.

[terryl]

Not been at this hurling game today is going to kill me.

tipp halftime/fulltime @ 4/1 in powers......surely worth a bet..

[burkeyoa]

Antrim -4 @ evs v Westmeath in the LHC today looks brilliant value.

Id expect there to be 8+ points to the good if all goes to plan

[Keane]

Super start to that game, 1-4 to 1-2 in Antrim's favour. Live updates if anyone wants to follow along here:

http://www.livegaelic.com/scores/

[kpnuts]

Antrim -4 @ evs v Westmeath in the LHC today looks brilliant value.

Id expect there to be 8+ points to the good if all goes to plan

8pt win. All went according to plan. WP!

[burkeyoa]

8pt win. All went according to plan. WP!

Yeah good win although by all reports it was made harder than it should have been!

[Keane]

Yeah good win although by all reports it was made harder than it should have been!

Yeah don't think the result reflected the play all that well, Westmeath were on top for maybe 50 mins, Antrim scored a penalty and they pretty much just capitulated.

[KevIRL]

Leitrim 4-19 New York 0-7. Bit of a paddlin right there

[KevIRL]

Tony Browne back for another year. He will be 40 on July 1st, absolute legend

Waterford Senior Hurling Manager Michael Ryan says Tony Browne is very much part of his plans for this years championship.Tony did not take part in the league campaign, but trained with the panel recently.This would be the 22nd consecutive Championship season for the Mount Sion clubman.Michael Ryan says the blend of youth and experience is very important for this Waterford team.

[Marsden02]

Rumour is Brendan Donaghy out tomorrow, as much as i hate saying it Cavan at home at 7/4 is looking very tasty. Hope i'm wrong.

Edit... Confirmed not starting FM in (Finn Moriarty or Fouling Machine - whichever u prefer)

[Keane]

Rumour is Brendan Donaghy out tomorrow, as much as i hate saying it Cavan at home at 7/4 is looking very tasty. Hope i'm wrong.

Edit... Confirmed not starting FM in (Finn Moriarty or Fouling Machine - whichever u prefer)

Yeah saw that earlier, definitely a boost for Cavan. Gearoid McKiernan is a hooooge loss for them. Think both teams are building decent panels, hope it's a good game.

[Percy007]

Rumour is Brendan Donaghy out tomorrow, as much as i hate saying it Cavan at home at 7/4 is looking very tasty. Hope i'm wrong.

Edit... Confirmed not starting FM in (Finn Moriarty or Fouling Machine - whichever u prefer)

Orange glasses....still fancy us tomorrow!!

[RoadSweeper]

Cavan named team won't start imo both positions and players. Guess about 3 changes to personnel and numerous positional.

Also suspect if F. Flan starts on wing 3/4 he will move back as extra man in defense.

[eamonhonda]

Sligo will bring nestor home this year, it wont be pretty, but we will do it.

[gazman59]

Really fancy westmeath to cover the handicap 2moro v carlow the carlow team is not the best the midfield is not up to scratch heslin will have a field day.

[eamonhonda]

I'm gonna take some galway + 2 at evens and be pretty happy with it.

With galway settled under the radar after a couple of shite years and following some underage success and also Mayo with injury problems I think they could do it.

[reilly110]

Cavan named team won't start imo both positions and players. Guess about 3 changes to personnel and numerous positional.

Also suspect if F. Flan starts on wing 3/4 he will move back as extra man in defense.

naming of dummy teams tilt me very hard...seems to be very prevailant in cavan for some reason

[Semibluff]

naming of dummy teams tilt me very hard...seems to be very prevailant in cavan for some reason

Id imagine that most teams prepare with themselves at mind. There would only be allowances made for the greater players of each county.

After watching tapes of all the league games, and talking to a few knowledgeable people from the county (ie if you were the armagh management team) it wouldnt take long to figure out the starting team, or atleast have yourself fully prepared for any eventualities.

The dummy teams serves such little purpose!


Remind you a little of the Weak/Strong Strong/weak scenario in poker.

"Our capt and best player is injured - dont dare tell the opposition, that gives them too much info - we'll put him in as playing"

"Our capt and best player looks likely to return from injury, dont dare tell the opposition, that gives them too much info - lets put him down as number 22"

geniuses

[reilly110]

Id imagine that most teams prepare with themselves at mind. There would only be allowances made for the greater players of each county.

After watching tapes of all the league games, and talking to a few knowledgeable people from the county (ie if you were the armagh management team) it wouldnt take long to figure out the starting team, or atleast have yourself fully prepared for any eventualities.

The dummy teams serves such little purpose!


Remind you a little of the Weak/Strong Strong/weak scenario in poker.

"Our capt and best player is injured - dont dare tell the opposition, that gives them too much info - we'll put him in as playing"

"Our capt and best player looks likely to return from injury, dont dare tell the opposition, that gives them too much info - lets put him down as number 22"

geniuses

cavan used to do a ridc amount of times with SJ -some man to have niggling injuries few days before match and line out on the day- sneaky geniuses

[BigDeal]

Cavan will set up very defensive, 12 men behind the ball most of the time, tempted by the 5/6 on Boyles for under 32.5 total points, actually 4/6 on Cavan under 15.5 looks better value.

[Semibluff]

some price with boyles on Down. should be 11/10. http://www.oddschecker.com/gaelic-ga...-v-down/winner

also hills price on Fermanagh looks very big. Cavan were good but Armagh were equally as bad. Id imagine Fermanagh will be well prepared for them. id be on them myself at this price

http://www.oddschecker.com/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/fermanagh-v-cavan/winner

[Keane]

+1 to both

[Keane]

Kev's done a great preview of the Munster Hurling Champ as well if anyone wants a look:

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/munster-senior-hurling-championship-state-of-play/

[Donk Magnet]

Dublin and Kildare both -7 at 2/1 the double for me this weekend think both teams will win by big margins this weekend.

Also hawk eye is in this weekend about time IMO.

[conspicuous]

Dublin -7 @ evens
Down 6/4

[shanboghted]

surely Waterford at 7/4 reps value against clare! Imo theres very little between the sides. If Waterford perform they could win here. wexford at 6/4 versus louth also reps good value imo

[Daww_18]

Jamie Barron at 11/8 with pp to score over 1.5pts has to have some value. He has an eye for goal and better Clare corner back will pick up Jake Dillon.

[Semibluff]

surely Waterford at 7/4 reps value against clare! Imo theres very little between the sides. If Waterford perform they could win here. wexford at 6/4 versus louth also reps good value imo

id be laying 6/4 myself

[Semibluff]

boyles doing what they do best, miss pricing GAA

4/5 on a 1/2 shot - Thank you

http://www.oddschecker.com/gaelic-ga...-london/winner Leitrim will have too much for London. Its a big Away fixture for them, the Sligo game went very fortunately for them, and theyve played their final. Be very surprised to not see Emlyn Mulligan led Leitrim win this one.

still dont think Cavan should be odds on away to Fermanagh

Also - I think that If you believe Kerry can have a good season this year, like I do, then you could do a lot worse than back Gooch at 10s to win player of the year. They have bryan sheehan (last years mvp) and the o'sullivans who cant even guarantee themselves starting roles. Looking good in defence.

youve heard the hype so far re gooch and his new found position. Its true he is pulling the strings, but youd better believe that he'll get a lot more credit than he deserves due to media attention. They will have a well balance scoring forward line, with james o donoghue possibly the only Kerry forward who could have the most significant score behind him. Even if he does, id still imagine Gooch to lift it over him.

Akin to the importance of Alan Brogan to Dublin last year and the year before, This is a very decent bet at a big price I think.

[KevIRL]

Gonna take the home teams in this weekends hurling matches to beat the handicap. I think Wexford and Offaly for certain will do better than the handicap suggests on their home patch, Limerick I'm not so sure of, but a 6 point lead is a big start

Wexford +4 @ 11/10 boyles
Offaly + 11 @ 6/5 Ladbrokes
Limerick +6 @ 11/10 PP

[KevIRL]

Gonna take the home teams in this weekends hurling matches to beat the handicap. I think Wexford and Offaly for certain will do better than the handicap suggests on their home patch, Limerick I'm not so sure of, but a 6 point lead is a big start

Wexford +4 @ 11/10 boyles
Offaly + 11 @ 6/5 Ladbrokes
Limerick +6 @ 11/10 PP

Decent start anyway. Dublin v lucky to be still in the Leinster championship

[conspicuous]

Decent start anyway. Dublin v lucky to be still in the Leinster championship

I went with the same bets as you with Wexford and Offaly but I went the opposite way with Limerick. I don't rate them too highly and reckon Tipp can take care of a 5 point handicap with Coral @ evens.


In football I took Louth[-1] @ 10/11 with Bet 365 after their highly impressive opening match against Laois

Good luck !

[Donk Magnet]

Gonna take the home teams in this weekends hurling matches to beat the handicap. I think Wexford and Offaly for certain will do better than the handicap suggests on their home patch, Limerick I'm not so sure of, but a 6 point lead is a big start

Wexford +4 @ 11/10 boyles
Offaly + 11 @ 6/5 Ladbrokes
Limerick +6 @ 11/10 PP

I owe you a few pints sir tyvm blindly followed you not for massive money but had 3x€20 doubles €20 treble.

[KevIRL]

That worked out rather well.

[conspicuous]

Well played Kev good work

[eurotomillions]

Long time since I posted here but GAA Season is back so that means €€€€€€ haha

Bets for the Weekend
I wont write up much on my selection as I am tired so just a quick brief.

Cavan v Fermanagh
This Cavan team is gelling together very well. Underage success in past three years is paying off. Fermanagh have the Peter factor but dont think it will be enough
Cavan -1 - 7/5

Wexford v Dublin
Seriously think Wexford can win this game. The old saying goes that the best team wins the replay and the underdog should of taken there chance first day. Dublin got lucky last weekend IMO. After there u21's losing there heads will be down. To be honest Id leave the betting till I see how the teams are gonna line out exactly but as I have to place my bets early I will be going for:
Wexford to win - 3/1

Just another small bet I might share from my own County

Offaly SFC - Sunday
Tullamore v Ferbane
Shane Dooley is tullamores best forward but as he will be lining out next weekend against waterford I can see him not really bothering with this match. Hurling is his no1 baby. Ferbane have had serious players come through minor in the past few years and have been going well this year. Tullamore for a town there size havent produced many quality players. Also one more fact, Ferbane Manager Phil O Reilly a tullamore native trained tullamore last year but left the club early this year after a row with the club over dual players and designated training for each code and practically went straight into the ferbane job. This factor alone will have ferbane reved up as he is one of the best managers in Offaly.

Ferbane to win 6/4

[Johnny Tightlips]

Well lads, started a twitter GAA tipping account with few lads who would do a good bit of GAA punting a number of weeks ago. It's called https://twitter.com/TheGAAmbler1. Been going 5 weeks to date and its been going reasonably well. Tipped 23 bets to date with 16 being winners. Win percentage is just over 69% with a number of doubles and trebles. Our aim is to provide a NAP of the week which will almost certainly come up. The philosophy being that we keep the win percentage as high as possible, meaning all our bets range from around just under evens to 3 or 4 to 1.

If you would like to see how we progress give us a follow https://twitter.com/TheGAAmbler1

Cheers

[Keane]

Win % is pretty meaningless, you really need to be quantifying your ROI.

[Johnny Tightlips]

Win % is pretty meaningless, you really need to be quantifying your ROI.

If you were to have placed 10 pounds on every bet that we have tipped, you would be up just over £80. That's not a bad return on investtment to date. Confident that it will improve over the course of time

But The ROI on our NAP's is most important for us as it represents about 75% of our betting. We have won 4/5 NAP's so far @ 5/6, 8/11, 4/6 & 4/6. ROI with £100 stake equating to £183

[Keane]

If you were to have placed 10 pounds on every bet that we have tipped, you would be up just over £80. That's not a bad return on investtment to date. Confident that it will improve over the course of time

But The ROI on our NAP's is most important for us as it represents about 75% of our betting. We have won 4/5 NAP's so far @ 5/6, 8/11, 4/6 & 4/6. ROI with £100 stake equating to £183

For that your ROI would be (83)/(5*100) = 0.166 or 16.6%.

If you can keep that going over 1000+ bets you'll be pretty wealthy.

Would be interesting to compare that with the ROI for all your bets together.

[coillcam]

London 3/1 at home with Ladbrokes against Westmeath in the Hurling qualifiers is worth a small punt.

Strong contingent of Galway u21 all ireland winning panelists from a few years go or so I am told. Also I know Westmeath's prep coming into this game has been badly lacking. Especially with regard to training numbers.