GAA Betting Thread

[Keane]

Not mad about anything this weekend tbh. I was away all week so only really got a chance to look at the handicap markets but most things looked to be priced pretty close to correct IMO.

Kildare at 15/8 with Hills is a standout price that is certainly worth a nibble I think now that it's moved out that far. Unfortunately haven't been able to get a bet on with them in a long time!

Few selections here but as I say I'm a bit ambivalent about them this week really:

http://www.livegaelic.com/features/the-proper-punter/the-proper-punter-a-rockier-road-ahead/

[Keane]

Pretty major tilt over that Dublin bet yesterday as Jim Gavin sends out a wildly different team to the one they announced. That situation is such a farce in the GAA, picking a believable dummy team is what most managers seem to do as the majority of their tactical planning. Gobshites.

I would probably have gone on a murderous rampage if I'd been in Croke Park and paid the 3 euro for an utterly redundant match program.

[KevIRL]

A cracking day in Kilkenny ahead of the Waterford-KK league match. Nice dry sod, could be pretty high scoring. Taking the overs (42.5 pts) @ 5/6.

Also doing a mugs treble

over 42.5 KK v Waterford
over 42.5 Gal v Tipp
Offaly - 6 v Carlow

Comes in a little over 9/1

[KevIRL]

I know Keane has been fond of going against Offaly this year but I think there is a lot of value on them at 6/5 v Waterford in the football on Sunday. Wheels have come off Waterford a bit with 2 loses on the bounce v London and Leitrim and also the game is on in Walsh Park as part of a double header with the hurlers, not the usual Fraher Field which would certainly be the preferred venue for the footballers

[Keane]

I know Keane has been fond of going against Offaly this year but I think there is a lot of value on them at 6/5 v Waterford in the football on Sunday. Wheels have come off Waterford a bit with 2 loses on the bounce v London and Leitrim and also the game is on in Walsh Park as part of a double header with the hurlers, not the usual Fraher Field which would certainly be the preferred venue for the footballers

Wouldn't be against this at all, opposed Waterford last weekend as well.

[conspicuous]

Tyrone @ evens v Kildare is a max bet for me

[bustamoves]

Tyrone @ evens v Kildare is a max bet for me

on what basis? seriously baffled by how you could have this as a max bet.
cant be much between these teams but am open to hearing your rationale.

[Loopz]

Armagh 2/1 vrs westmeath looks too big

[conspicuous]

on what basis? seriously baffled by how you could have this as a max bet.
cant be much between these teams but am open to hearing your rationale.

There's a huge gulf in ability between the teams. Kildare are a very ordinary team and I've made a fortune from opposing them over the last 3 years. They constantly come up short when facing a team that's phyically conditioned and can play football. Tyrone are strong and are taking this league seriously. Kildare have beaten the worst Kerry side since 1992, half a Cork team and scraped past Mayo. The one good team they played, Dublin, beat them out the gate. Tyrone will win.

[Donk Magnet]

on what basis? seriously baffled by how you could have this as a max bet.
cant be much between these teams but am open to hearing your rationale.

Would love to know the reasoning behind this myself obv people are going to think my opinion is biased because I'm from Kildare and am a big supporter of our football team.

My 2c anyway this one would be a no bet for me you can't really IMO anyway judge Tyrone on last weeks win over the dubs who btw had half a team out.

Both teams only need a point to secure a semi final spot.

Overall I think this one will be too close to call I'd advise keeping your money in your pocket and enjoy the game there are better spots to get your money in.

[Donk Magnet]

There's a huge gulf in ability between the teams. Kildare are a very ordinary team and I've made a fortune from opposing them over the last 3 years. They constantly come up short when facing a team that's phyically conditioned and can play football. Tyrone are strong and are taking this league seriously. Kildare have beaten the worst Kerry side since 1992, half a Cork team and scraped past Mayo. The one good team they played, Dublin, beat them out the gate. Tyrone will win.

Wow I don't use this term often mate but your a little bit deluded.
How have you made a fortune off them the last 3 years?? They were beaten by cork last year who were I'd say at best a 1/2 shot.

Donegal the year previous in e/t where we had a good goal ruled out for square ball but were not going into that.

Down beat them in the semi final in a pretty much evenly matched game.

So either your saying you had loads of money on Louth Meath or Wicklow in the last few years other than that I don't know what your on about.

Btw there was a big gulf in class in the Dublin side Kildare met than Tyrone did.
And with that although they are young they were missing most of there influential players. Ie Kelly brophy Flynn played half the match.

Edit to say they also beat this same Tyrone team less than 12 months ago and players wise we are one of the best conditioned in the country.

[conspicuous]

Would love to know the reasoning behind this myself obv people are going to think my opinion is biased because I'm from Kildare and am a big supporter of our football team.

My 2c anyway this one would be a no bet for me you can't really IMO anyway judge Tyrone on last weeks win over the dubs who btw had half a team out.

Both teams only need a point to secure a semi final spot.

Overall I think this one will be too close to call I'd advise keeping your money in your pocket and enjoy the game there are better spots to get your money in.

Thanks but I'll respectfully ignore your advice. Someone as emotionally involved with a team as you are is usually incapable of making rational judgements on that team so you shouldn't really be giving advice on Kildare. I mean that in the best possible way

I don't know why you came to the ill judged assumption that I'm basing my opinion of Tyrone on them beating Dublin. I didn't even mention that game.

Anyway Kildare have been a huge cash cow for me by opposing them against anyone that can play football. They're great at hammering Offaly and Cavan but are constantly come unstuck against anyone with physical preparation and tactical nous

[conspicuous]

Wow I don't use this term often mate but your a little bit deluded.
How have you made a fortune off them the last 3 years?? They were beaten by cork last year who were I'd say at best a 1/2 shot.

Donegal the year previous in e/t where we had a good goal ruled out for square ball but were not going into that.

Down beat them in the semi final in a pretty much evenly matched game.

So either your saying you had loads of money on Louth Meath or Wicklow in the last few years other than that I don't know what your on about.

Btw there was a big gulf in class in the Dublin side Kildare met than Tyrone did.
And with that although they are young they were missing most of there influential players. Ie Kelly brophy Flynn played half the match.

Edit to say they also beat this same Tyrone team less than 12 months ago and players wise we are one of the best conditioned in the country.

Really no need to resort to insulting remarks like that just because I offer some criticisms of your team. I could have a go at your comprehension skills or even your grammar but I'll let it go seeing as you're a genuine Kildare supporter and probably just a little sensitive.

Regarding my wins on Kildare I opposed them successfully twice last year in the championship, my only bets on them. The Meath match was a medium stakes bet and I backed them in the handicap market at +5 which was never really in doubt I had one of my biggest sports bets of the year on Cork to beat a 2 point handicap which they obliterated
The previous year I backed Dublin to beat them outright and Donegal to beat the handicap[3 I think] The year before I backed Down to beat Kildare outright in the semi final at evens

The bolded piece from your post above isn't really coherent and doesn't challenge my assertion . Even if Cork were 1/2 at best it doesn't mean I didn't have a large bet on them or back them in a different market. The fact that Kildare had a goal disallowed in extra time against Donegal doesn't affect my claim for a bet made on 70 minutes play. I could go on...

Kildare are a good set of athletes but a poor footballing side. This is why they beat poorly conditioned sides like Offaly and Cavan easily but always come unstuck against sides who can match them physically and play a bit of football. For all the praise that's been heaped on them over the last few year they've yet to prove to me that they're anything more than an enthusiastic group of gym monkeys with hardly a footballer amongst them. They also have a terrible record in close games. Some people call it bad luck but it's obviously something more than that at this stage

Ultimately Kildare are very predictable which makes them easy to punt on or against. You know they will routinely beat inferior poorly conditioned sides. This then leads them to being under priced in big matches and very easy to oppose

[bustamoves]

''For all the praise that's been heaped on them over the last few year they've yet to prove to me that they're anything more than an enthusiastic group of gym monkeys with hardly a footballer amongst them.''

very funny i must say...

mcgeeney might catch sight of this and have it up n the dressing room wall.
i'm a neutral btw..

gl with the bet. might be a shade of value but max bet not in my eyes.

[Loopz]

Kildares problems come from the fact they wear white.


lolzz

[Donk Magnet]

Really no need to resort to insulting remarks like that just because I offer some criticisms of your team. I could have a go at your comprehension skills or even your grammar but I'll let it go seeing as you're a genuine Kildare supporter and probably just a little sensitive.

Regarding my wins on Kildare I opposed them successfully twice last year in the championship, my only bets on them. The Meath match was a medium stakes bet and I backed them in the handicap market at +5 which was never really in doubt I had one of my biggest sports bets of the year on Cork to beat a 2 point handicap which they obliterated
The previous year I backed Dublin to beat them outright and Donegal to beat the handicap[3 I think] The year before I backed Down to beat Kildare outright in the semi final at evens

The bolded piece from your post above isn't really coherent and doesn't challenge my assertion . Even if Cork were 1/2 at best it doesn't mean I didn't have a large bet on them or back them in a different market. The fact that Kildare had a goal disallowed in extra time against Donegal doesn't affect my claim for a bet made on 70 minutes play. I could go on...

Kildare are a good set of athletes but a poor footballing side. This is why they beat poorly conditioned sides like Offaly and Cavan easily but always come unstuck against sides who can match them physically and play a bit of football. For all the praise that's been heaped on them over the last few year they've yet to prove to me that they're anything more than an enthusiastic group of gym monkeys with hardly a footballer amongst them. They also have a terrible record in close games. Some people call it bad luck but it's obviously something more than that at this stage

Ultimately Kildare are very predictable which makes them easy to punt on or against. You know they will routinely beat inferior poorly conditioned sides. This then leads them to being under priced in big matches and very easy to oppose

Where did I insult you? If I did it wasn't meant to sound insulting.
I am passionate about Kildare football.

But I'm tired of people saying that we don't have any decent footballers.

John Doyle wouldn't look amiss in any ff line in the country in his day.

Peter Kelly an all star winner

Emmet Bolton prob 1 of the best half backs in the country.

Niall Kelly will be tortureing defences for years to come.

Daniel Flynn will be an all star

Shane Connolly is one of the best shot stoppers in the game.

Seanie Johnston is another cracking footballer.

Gl with your bet all the same.

Just out of curiosity what odds would you offer me on Kildare if Tyrone are a max bet?

[Donk Magnet]

''For all the praise that's been heaped on them over the last few year they've yet to prove to me that they're anything more than an enthusiastic group of gym monkeys with hardly a footballer amongst them.''

very funny i must say...

mcgeeney might catch sight of this and have it up n the dressing room wall.
i'm a neutral btw..

gl with the bet. might be a shade of value but max bet not in my eyes.

I've just text it to Alan smith he's gonna show geezer for the lolz.

[Donk Magnet]

Kildares problems come from the fact they wear white.


lolzz

White is cool #bradysham4sam

[Keane]

FWIW the Kildare price was the first one that jumped out at me from the list of early prices as potentially my biggest bet of the year so far. This Tyrone team was utterly outclassed by Kildare in the league final last year.

There's a lot of "lolsamplesize" worthy arguing been done here that I may get around to addressing.

[conspicuous]

FWIW the Kildare price was the first one that jumped out at me from the list of early prices as potentially my biggest bet of the year so far. This Tyrone team was utterly outclassed by Kildare in the league final last year.

There's a lot of "lolsamplesize" worthy arguing been done here that I may get around to addressing.

I hope you don't base all your opinions on one off matches played a year previously. You may lol at my sample size but I can only examine Kildare on the matches they've played under McGeeney's regime. The bottom like is they constantly come up short against any sort of credible opposition. You can't really argue with that

[Keane]

I hope you don't base all your opinions on one off matches played a year previously. You may lol at my sample size but I can only examine Kildare on the matches they've played under McGeeney's regime. The bottom like is they constantly come up short against any sort of credible opposition. You can't really argue with that

If you consider Tyrone credible opposition then I can clearly argue very easily against it, if you don't consider them credible opposition then the price is probably wrong.

[conspicuous]

If you consider Tyrone credible opposition then I can clearly argue very easily against it, if you don't consider them credible opposition then the price is probably wrong.

In the championship they've come up short in pretty much every game against decent opposition when the pressure was on. I'll continue to oppose them against good teams, it's a no brainer

[Keane]

In the championship they've come up short in pretty much every game against decent opposition when the pressure was on. I'll continue to oppose them against good teams, it's a no brainer

That's where lolsamplesize comes in. You mentioned five games that they've lost above, of those two were games they were expected to lose, two were against teams they were on a pretty equal footing with and one was a game that they were expected to win.

If you want to actually get in to analysing those five games as though you could actually draw any conclusions from them you could pretty easily do so:

1. 2010 vs Down - close game which was swung by a clear point for Kildare which was disallowed along with a clearly illegal goal for Benny Coulter which was awarded

2. 2011 vs Dublin - Game they were expected to lose went down to the wire, Dublin winning through a Bernard Brogan free kick which was awarded for nothing

3. 2011 vs Donegal - game of the Championship against the most underrated team in the country, big swing moment was a disallowed goal for Kildare which would have put them six points clear in the second half. Goal should have stood although not as clear cut as the decision against Down.

4. 2012 vs Meath - bad performance, soundly beaten

5. 2012 vs Cork - a woeful performance by Joe McQuillen, Cork scored two goals in three minutes directly from restarts which were incorrectly awarded to Cork. Despite those concessions Kildare dominated the next quarter and trailed by only three points at HT having been eight down. Alan O'Connor should have been sent off twice in the first half and once in the second (was eventually removed from play by Conor Counihan) and Noel O'Leary should have seen the line at least twice, including in the incident which led to McQuillen instead sending off Eoin Doyle.

Of those five games, only the Meath result was a probablistic outlier. The scoreline in the Cork game was an anomaly, but one that's easily explained if you actually watch the game, and in any case it was just a better team beating a worse one.

TBH even if this was a statistically significant sample saying that "Kildare haven't beaten decent opposition in X years" is still a pretty novel way to pick a bet.

Even if we grant that they have some sort of mental block with beating good teams in the Championship (hard to know why Meath are meant to be evidence of that but anyway), we still need to make a couple of leaps to end up with Tyrone on the same level as Cork or Dublin, a further leap to decide that also applies to the League and yet another to decide that beating Tyrone in the league very handily last year doesn't immediately dispel the notion, and neither do wins over Cork, Donegal or Kerry in this years League.

Even if we take the leap and grant that in the championship they've come up short in pretty much every game against decent opposition when the pressure was on and make the assumption that they'll continue to do so, why does that make you want to bet them in this league game where the premise plainly doesn't hold?

At the end of the day, it's an 11/10 your pick game, so it's not like it's possible to be wildly incorrect, but your logic is terrible.

[conspicuous]

That's where lolsamplesize comes in. You mentioned five games that they've lost above, of those two were games they were expected to lose, two were against teams they were on a pretty equal footing with and one was a game that they were expected to win.

If you want to actually get in to analysing those five games as though you could actually draw any conclusions from them you could pretty easily do so:

1. 2010 vs Down - close game which was swung by a clear point for Kildare which was disallowed along with a clearly illegal goal for Benny Coulter which was awarded

2. 2011 vs Dublin - Game they were expected to lose went down to the wire, Dublin winning through a Bernard Brogan free kick which was awarded for nothing

3. 2011 vs Donegal - game of the Championship against the most underrated team in the country, big swing moment was a disallowed goal for Kildare which would have put them six points clear in the second half. Goal should have stood although not as clear cut as the decision against Down.

4. 2012 vs Meath - bad performance, soundly beaten

5. 2012 vs Cork - a woeful performance by Joe McQuillen, Cork scored two goals in three minutes directly from restarts which were incorrectly awarded to Cork. Despite those concessions Kildare dominated the next quarter and trailed by only three points at HT having been eight down. Alan O'Connor should have been sent off twice in the first half and once in the second (was eventually removed from play by Conor Counihan) and Noel O'Leary should have seen the line at least twice, including in the incident which led to McQuillen instead sending off Eoin Doyle.

Of those five games, only the Meath result was a probablistic outlier. The scoreline in the Cork game was an anomaly, but one that's easily explained if you actually watch the game, and in any case it was just a better team beating a worse one.

TBH even if this was a statistically significant sample saying that "Kildare haven't beaten decent opposition in X years" is still a pretty novel way to pick a bet.

Even if we grant that they have some sort of mental block with beating good teams in the Championship (hard to know why Meath are meant to be evidence of that but anyway), we still need to make a couple of leaps to end up with Tyrone on the same level as Cork or Dublin, a further leap to decide that also applies to the League and yet another to decide that beating Tyrone in the league very handily last year doesn't immediately dispel the notion, and neither do wins over Cork, Donegal or Kerry in this years League.

Even if we take the leap and grant that in the championship they've come up short in pretty much every game against decent opposition when the pressure was on and make the assumption that they'll continue to do so, why does that make you want to bet them in this league game where the premise plainly doesn't hold?

At the end of the day, it's an 11/10 your pick game, so it's not like it's possible to be wildly incorrect, but your logic is terrible.

Ok the first major flaw in your argument is blaming the referee for Kildare losing 4 out of the 5 matches in discussion. Not even the most infuriated, patisan of supporters would logically conclude that their team's poor record was constantly down to refereeing errors . You deride the logic I use for opposing Kildare[ which is actually based on results and hard evidence even if it is a small sample size] and then come out with childish reasoning like blaming the referee for a series of defeats
Rather than trying to take a clear and objective view when anlaysing the matches above you've clearly come with an agenda to make excuses for Kildare wherever possible. I lost interest when you tried to blame Kildare's hammering at the hands of Cork down to the referee. You're not even capable of entertaining the notion that the trend of Kildare losing to well prepared teams in the championship might be down to something more than variance so I won't press the matter any further
I'd love to hear your explanation for Kildare's trouncing by Dublin in this league campaign. Most people I spoke to were of the opinion that the 2 point handicap was too low but you were adamant it was right[or very close]. Between this and other posts you've writen on Kildare I would respectfully suggest that your rating of Kildare is too high. You're clearly a close follower of the game and your judgement on most other teams is pretty solid but in my opinion you're way off on Kildare.
Anyway call me lucky or illogical if you want but I'll continue to oppose Kildare when they come up against good footballing well prepared teams as they will this weekend. Hopefully I'll keep winning

[conspicuous]

Where did I insult you? If I did it wasn't meant to sound insulting.
I am passionate about Kildare football.

But I'm tired of people saying that we don't have any decent footballers.

John Doyle wouldn't look amiss in any ff line in the country in his day.

Peter Kelly an all star winner

Emmet Bolton prob 1 of the best half backs in the country.

Niall Kelly will be tortureing defences for years to come.

Daniel Flynn will be an all star

Shane Connolly is one of the best shot stoppers in the game.

Seanie Johnston is another cracking footballer.

Gl with your bet all the same.

Just out of curiosity what odds would you offer me on Kildare if Tyrone are a max bet?

Ye DM I know you're passionate about Kildare football and a genuine GAA man. I hope I'm wrong and you get to celebrate some success this summer but I think the ship has sailed. Your opinions above are subjective, just like my opinions on Kildare footballers so hopefully it doesn't mean either of us are deluded. Best of luck

Edit:
Odds on Kildare ? How about a signature bet for a week, you name the terms
I'd back Tyrone up to 4/6 no problem

[bustamoves]

@conspicuous
how can you say blaming the referee for a defeat is childish. is it childish to suggest louth who were infamously beaten by meath by a poor refereeing decision?

sometimes 'blaming the ref' for a loss is a perfectly valid and objective observation.

and surely you should factor in all these things when assessing teams' form.

[conspicuous]

@conspicuous
how can you say blaming the referee for a defeat is childish. is it childish to suggest louth who were infamously beaten by meath by a poor refereeing decision?

sometimes 'blaming the ref' for a loss is a perfectly valid and objective observation.

and surely you should factor in all these things when assessing teams' form.

When you blame a referee for a team losing 4 out of 5 matches and don't even consider the other factors at play then there's clearly issues. Of course there are occassions when the referee is to blame but using him as an excuse on a repeated basis is weak and immature

[Keane]

Results based analysis FTW. I must run so good.

[tipp86]

Kind of Fancy KK and Tipp to cover the HC this weekend -3 and -2. I wont be betting on it all the same this league has been so unpredictable.

Funny I think Waterford will be relegated after what could be seen as a pretty decent league run if the next two games go ok.

@Keane you seem to have liked Leitrim so far do you think they are good for the +4 handicap against Tipp?

[Keane]

Kind of Fancy KK and Tipp to cover the HC this weekend -3 and -2. I wont be betting on it all the same this league has been so unpredictable.

Funny I think Waterford will be relegated after what could be seen as a pretty decent league run if the next two games go ok.

@Keane you seem to have liked Leitrim so far do you think they are good for the +4 handicap against Tipp?

Yeah think they're still pretty underrated, haven't checked team news or anything like that yet but the price looks a little big alright. If you could get the +4 @ evens I'd be surprised if I wasn't betting it. Still looks pretty good @ 1.91.

[KevIRL]

Weather conditons could be key to Tipp covering the 3pts Enda. But on that one I'd agree with you broadly, Waterford arent scoring whereas Tipp look to have clicked finally

Definitely wouldnt agree re KK though, injuries are really hitting them hard, and they only escaped with a home win against a Waterford due to 2 poor goalkeeping errors, and that was even with Waterford not scoring for almost 25 mins of the second half. Clare are on the back of 2 good wins, and at home I think there is some decent value on a Clare win @ 2/1 (Lads, Stan James).

[Keane]

Had a bet on Derry yesterday as heard Paddy Keenan was missing for Louth. Prob would have thought about getting on them at 10/11 anyway - Boyles way out of line there.

I've also shocked myself by having a small bet on Kerry at 2.1. Decent news from the panel with all of the subs expected to play a role i.e. Gooch, Galvin, Sheehan. Cork a bit walking wounded at the moment. Cadogan is an important player for them at the back and is missing along with three forwards of immense quality. Missing players probably about balance each other out, but Kerry's are available, Cork's aren't. Home advantage would get Kerry to slight favs.

[KevIRL]

Weather conditons could be key to Tipp covering the 3pts Enda. But on that one I'd agree with you broadly, Waterford arent scoring whereas Tipp look to have clicked finally

Definitely wouldnt agree re KK though, injuries are really hitting them hard, and they only escaped with a home win against a Waterford due to 2 poor goalkeeping errors, and that was even with Waterford not scoring for almost 25 mins of the second half. Clare are on the back of 2 good wins, and at home I think there is some decent value on a Clare win @ 2/1 (Lads, Stan James).

Hearing that KK are likely to be missing Paul Murphy and Jackie Tyrell from the backs. Huges losses

[Keane]

Hearing that KK are likely to be missing Paul Murphy and Jackie Tyrell from the backs. Huges losses

Those were both well flagged early in the week so will already be in the prices, so be careful!

[rogcn]

Clare 2/1

Feel this is a huge price for Clare on Sunday.

After two fine wins against Galway and Cork as well as having home field advantage, I thought they would be around 6/4.

The home crowd have high expectations for this bunch after their recent underage successes and the competition for places in the starting 15 is fierce. Lads will want to be laying down a marker for Championship.

Although Clare have only scored 2 goals in the league so far, the full forward line could put away a few due to the absence of Tyrrell and Murphy.

[reilly110]

Had a bet on Derry yesterday as heard Paddy Keenan was missing for Louth. Prob would have thought about getting on them at 10/11 anyway - Boyles way out of line there.

I've also shocked myself by having a small bet on Kerry at 2.1. Decent news from the panel with all of the subs expected to play a role i.e. Gooch, Galvin, Sheehan. Cork a bit walking wounded at the moment. Cadogan is an important player for them at the back and is missing along with three forwards of immense quality. Missing players probably about balance each other out, but Kerry's are available, Cork's aren't. Home advantage would get Kerry to slight favs.

pp going 11/10 derry

[KevIRL]

I cant help but feel that 2/1 on Cork to beat Galway is a decent price and worth a bet? yay or nay?

Big nay for me anyway

[Keane]

pp going 11/10 derry

TY, I've missed something there obviously so - can't remember the last time a line moved against me in GAA! Game is unlikely to go ahead anyway I kind of hope it doesn't now.

[The Situation]

Game goes ahead, PP still a good bit out of line with everyone else. I keane I trust

[rogcn]

Good shout on the Derry match Keane.

Pity Clare couldn't convert some of a wides they had in the second half.

An incredible amount of spurned opportunities.

Kilkenny are deadly at converting their goal chances.

[Keane]

They nearly threw it away at the end. Delighted with the Kerry win. Mayo were impressive today although the black card can't come in soon enough.

[rogcn]

Ya Derry were up by 6 at one stage and then I think Louth got 5 unanswered points. Ya that was important wn for Kerry today.

After seeing a few rounds of the league (I know its only the league), who would you fancy for the All Ireland?

The Tyrone/Donegal game should be a cracker!

[Keane]

Ya Derry were up by 6 at one stage and then I think Louth got 5 unanswered points. Ya that was important wn for Kerry today.

After seeing a few rounds of the league (I know its only the league), who would you fancy for the All Ireland?

The Tyrone/Donegal game should be a cracker!

Dublin by a mile at the moment.

[KevIRL]

Some finish to Division 1A of the hurling in prospect. Table has Waterford 5 pts, KK, Cork, Tipp, Clare all on 4 pts and Galway on 3pts. In theory anyone could end up in the play off spots and anyone could end up in the relegation play off.

Just back from the Waterford game, a great fightback by our lads from Tipp being 4 pts up to win it by a point. Brick Walsh was absolutely outstanding.

[conspicuous]

Drinks on me tonight after by biggest sports bet of the year came up trumps. I didn't even have to sweat as Tyrone well and truly outclassed Kildare and had the match wrapped up by half time. Today reaffirmed my belief that Kildare are an overrated side with plenty of brawn but not enough skill. When they're up against a good footballing side that are well prepared and focussed they are always worth opposing

[KevIRL]

What a finish in prospect for Division 1A of the league

The League table is

Waterford 5pts (-3 scoring diff)
Clare 4pts (+6 scoring diff)
Cork 4pts (+6 scoring diff)
KK 4pts (+2 scoring diff)
Tipp 4pts (-1 scoring diff)
Galway 3pts (-10 scoring diff)

The final round of games is
Waterford v Galway
KK v Cork
Tipp v Clare

As things stand all teams could get one of the top 3 spots and a league semi final berth, and likewise all teams could end up in the bottom 2 and the relegation play off.

[kaiser soze]

PP were still going 11/10 derry this morning couldnt get on myself, defo were worth a big bet with paddy keenan not playing, ah well thems the breaks.

[Donk Magnet]

Drinks on me tonight after by biggest sports bet of the year came up trumps. I didn't even have to sweat as Tyrone well and truly outclassed Kildare and had the match wrapped up by half time. Today reaffirmed my belief that Kildare are an overrated side with plenty of brawn but not enough skill. When they're up against a good footballing side that are well prepared and focussed they are always worth opposing

Congrats on the bet. Did you see the game?

[Keane]

PP were still going 11/10 derry this morning couldnt get on myself, defo were worth a big bet with paddy keenan not playing, ah well thems the breaks.

PP did a weird line move on the Fermanagh game as well where they were already best price at 1.83 and moved it out to 1.91. Was very tempted to have a bet on them at that price but the line move was bizarre and spooked me, similar to the Derry one which I probably wouldn't have bet if I had seen that line move beforehand.

Hard to know what they were at really.

[eagle eye]

PP did a weird line move on the Fermanagh game as well where they were already best price at 1.83 and moved it out to 1.91. Was very tempted to have a bet on them at that price but the line move was bizarre and spooked me, similar to the Derry one which I probably wouldn't have bet if I had seen that line move beforehand.

Hard to know what they were at really.

A friend of mine was very sweet on Fermanagh and doesn't bet much but told me he has a very large bet on them. I intended to get on them today but thought the kickoff was 2.30. There was no in-running market on the game and I was one minute late as I logged on at 2.00pm.

[bustamoves]

PP did a weird line move on the Fermanagh game as well where they were already best price at 1.83 and moved it out to 1.91. Was very tempted to have a bet on them at that price but the line move was bizarre and spooked me, similar to the Derry one which I probably wouldn't have bet if I had seen that line move beforehand.

Hard to know what they were at really.

@Keane
question for Keane. another thing that confuses (and spooks me) when i'm about to bet is when i check oddschecker for best available price and i see the pie chart below showing 'betting information' with a very skewed betting distribution (against the/my tip).

For eg Galway v Wexford. Galway bets at 75% iirc and for the handicap gal (-2) they consisted 100% of bets! Another eg from yesterday was a greyhound that was tipped up and the greyhound in question was 11/8 and consisting roughly 33% of bets but a dog at 12/1 in the same race had close to a 20% share of the pie (it won returning at 16/1 sp).

I'm just wondering if this information (these pie charts in oddschecker) are accurate or indicative of anything and anyway useful or what do you think/make of them.

[conspicuous]

Congrats on the bet. Did you see the game?

Cheers Donk and yes I was at the match. Very one sided in fairness, your boys weren't at the races at all for most of the match. Tyrone looked much sharper from the word go and worked their scores well. Everything looked very laboured with Kildare and their lack of natural forwards was again evident with too many wides or shots dropping short
Kildare were a better in the second half with subs Hurley and Cribben doing well around the middle . Scores were still hard come by until the last 10 minutes when a flurry of points put some respectability on the scoreboard. Tyrone showed more intensity for much of the match and their score taking was generally better. Harte has to be happy with how they're progressing with the championship opener against Donegal in mind
There was a lot of very positive talk about the Kildare U21's at the match, apparently very strong against Laois the other night in the Leinster semi final.

[Donk Magnet]

Cheers Donk and yes I was at the match. Very one sided in fairness, your boys weren't at the races at all for most of the match. Tyrone looked much sharper from the word go and worked their scores well. Everything looked very laboured with Kildare and their lack of natural forwards was again evident with too many wides or shots dropping short
Kildare were a better in the second half with subs Hurley and Cribben doing well around the middle . Scores were still hard come by until the last 10 minutes when a flurry of points put some respectability on the scoreboard. Tyrone showed more intensity for much of the match and their score taking was generally better. Harte has to be happy with how they're progressing with the championship opener against Donegal in mind
There was a lot of very positive talk about the Kildare U21's at the match, apparently very strong against Laois the other night in the Leinster semi final.

u21s are very strong.
might sound like another excuse but as someone watching the game what did you think of the refs performance?

tyronne were good but we started the game with only 1 of our first choice forwards being seanie johnston.

this is most likley going to be geezers last year and im pretty certain jason ryan is the next man in line.

and with ryan coming in the work on the forward line is going to be 1st on his agenda.

if you have a chance on the 3rd of april go to portlaoise for the u21s final.

[conspicuous]

u21s are very strong.
might sound like another excuse but as someone watching the game what did you think of the refs performance?

tyronne were good but we started the game with only 1 of our first choice forwards being seanie johnston.

this is most likley going to be geezers last year and im pretty certain jason ryan is the next man in line.

and with ryan coming in the work on the forward line is going to be 1st on his agenda.

if you have a chance on the 3rd of april go to portlaoise for the u21s final.

Jason Ryan is a brilliant coach and you're lucky to have him. He had Wexford playing brilliant football but probably took them as far as he could. Physically and tactically they were very well prepared, they're only stumbling block seemed to be a psychological one as they threw away matches to Dublin in both '10 and '11 that they should have won.
Ryan will do well if he takes over from McGeeney, especially if he has some fresh young talent to work with from the u21s. By all accounts he's innovative, meticulous and highly respected and popular with his players. I just read the match report from the u21's win over Laois, sounds very impressive allright. The final could be a cracker against a strong Longford side, I'll certainly try to make it down.
The refereeing today was typical GAA mediocrity but Tyrone played him much better. It not fair or right but the reality is that if Kiladare just held on to posession more rather than kicking it wide or short they would win frees and increase their score. I know it's cynical but that's what the others are doing and Kildare need to be a bit more streetwise.

[Donk Magnet]

Let me know if you can make portlaoise ill buy ya a pint.

[conspicuous]

Let me know if you can make portlaoise ill buy ya a pint.

Sound

[Semibluff]

PP did a weird line move on the Fermanagh game as well where they were already best price at 1.83 and moved it out to 1.91. Was very tempted to have a bet on them at that price but the line move was bizarre and spooked me, similar to the Derry one which I probably wouldn't have bet if I had seen that line move beforehand.

Hard to know what they were at really.

your giving them way too much credit getn spooked by line moves

It could of purely been 1 person had a 500e bet in a shop, or on a hot account that moved it.

Or one trader just had a change of heart. Wouldnt read that much into it, or give them too much credit

[Keane]

@Keane
question for Keane. another thing that confuses (and spooks me) when i'm about to bet is when i check oddschecker for best available price and i see the pie chart below showing 'betting information' with a very skewed betting distribution (against the/my tip).

For eg Galway v Wexford. Galway bets at 75% iirc and for the handicap gal (-2) they consisted 100% of bets! Another eg from yesterday was a greyhound that was tipped up and the greyhound in question was 11/8 and consisting roughly 33% of bets but a dog at 12/1 in the same race had close to a 20% share of the pie (it won returning at 16/1 sp).

I'm just wondering if this information (these pie charts in oddschecker) are accurate or indicative of anything and anyway useful or what do you think/make of them.

Never look at them tbh, I wouldn't think they'd be that important in smaller markets like GAA.

your giving them way too much credit getn spooked by line moves

It could of purely been 1 person had a 500e bet in a shop, or on a hot account that moved it.

Or one trader just had a change of heart. Wouldnt read that much into it, or give them too much credit

More likely a trader I think, anyone decent wouldn't have been taking PP prices when there were multiple bookies offering way better.

It was the first time I'd seen anything like it so I was a bit befuddled by it, but after seeing how the games in question played out I definitely gave them too much credit!

[KevIRL]

I reckon PP have gotten it wrong for Thursday nights minor hurling match between Waterford and Tipp, they go Waterford 2/1, Tipp 2/5. Waterford have had a lot of success at colleges level recently - Dungarvan Colleges beat Kilkenny CBS in the All Ireland on Saturday for example. Obviously backing minor especially early in the season can be something of a lottery, and I'm not sure how much preparation the team have had together, but I think with the talent in the team and home advantage 2/1 is a very big price.

[conspicuous]

I'm on Tyrone[-1] v Kildare. Paddy Power offering this handicap at evens which is the best price available.