IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[Wesley Harms]

That 182 yesterday is rubbish, the KG was ran at a really good pace and yet was over 3 seconds slower than the Novice Chase. If you want to believe he's as good as he was fair enough but IMO that run yesterday was 16 lbs or more inferior to his 2009 win when he was arguably at his brilliant best.

While I agree with Noel in that the figure given to LR in the gold cup was too high and thus affected yesterday's rating, comparing the times with the novices when the races were so different is a mistake.

And even taking your 16lbs lower mark of 175ish still makes him to form horse of the season. I was never a long run fan though so maybe I'm blinkered.

Grand Crus will probably start fav if he's confirmed for the race

[A_CitizenErased]

Tips for today?

Preferably from Noel :P

[Wesley Harms]

Tips for today?

Preferably from Noel :P

The Peddlers Cross/Big Zeb/Finians Rainbow treble looks decent

[SatNav]

colm got a tip for a horse yesterday, a few got it around the town, cant think of the name of it lol, It was 20/1 yesterday.

[The Situation]

Thank christ there's a decent crop of novice chasers coming through this season, how fecking tedius is it watching Big Zeb beating the same couple of horses race after race. The Arkle is actually the only race I'm genuinely excited about in the run up the Chelts, real dearth of quality depth outside of that division this season. Can't get into this Kauto love fest, legend but it's all very mediocre.

[ghostface]

Its great that the PP site is going into meltdown while i'm trying to pick horses out of the air, they obviously don't want my money

[Wesley Harms]

Not sure if level

There is something wrong with you if you dont get the Kauto love. You say it's mediocre, you obv see horses running to marks in the high 170s and 180s everyday, and at 11 years of age. Please point us to these horse that make KS look mediocre.

Probably at Southwell I'd assume

[Wesley Harms]

Nice performance from Sprinter Sacre there, but I think Peddlers Cross will be seen in a better light in the Arkle. Although its hard to see him overturning that form.

[eagle eye]

I love to see records broken and things like that and I'm a huge fan of Kauto but tbh there was only one horse he had to beat yesterday. There was never going to be anything else even in with a chance of winning that race. I have to agree with The Situation that there is a lack of talent at the very top level at the minute.

[Wesley Harms]

You guys should be working for Timeform

[The Situation]

Pin dropped on Cappa Bleu, so I've backed Galaxy Rock ew.

[SatNav]

That horses name is the bishop Looney running in Leopardstown at 15.05

[TheImprover]

Fuck you pp, would not take my bet of Holly tree and finians rainbow for a double but would take my deposit twice, fkn cunts

[Starvin Marvin]

I love to see records broken and things like that and I'm a huge fan of Kauto but tbh there was only one horse he had to beat yesterday. There was never going to be anything else even in with a chance of winning that race. I have to agree with The Situation that there is a lack of talent at the very top level at the minute.

So when exactly was there strength in depth at the top level then.

Lack of talent my bollocks.

[TheImprover]

Anyone else had technical problems with pp site over the last 2 days?

[Arazi]

The 2 Grade One chases are a sorry shadow of what we saw @ Kempton on Stephens day. FL has his ground or what's approaching his ground but u can't trust Mouse to have him primed, LI looks the big danger. These 2 look a class apart and I'd have it as a match, the others really shouldn't be good enough, if they are then I'd be looking elsewhere for an Irish challenge for the RSA.

The Lexus is dreadful, I wouldn't think QDLR could get within an asses roar of a KS, LR, GC. His grade one form flatters him but he should go close in this, against these.

[Aya14]

The 2 Grade One chases are a sorry shadow of what we saw @ Kempton on Stephens day. FL has his ground or what's approaching his ground but u can't trust Mouse to have him primed, LI looks the big danger. These 2 look a class apart and I'd have it as a match, the others really shouldn't be good enough, if they are then I'd be looking elsewhere for an Irish challenge for the RSA.

The Lexus is dreadful, I wouldn't think QDLR could get within an asses roar of a KS, LR, GC. His grade one form flatters him but he should go close in this, against these.

I disagree and think QDLR is the best chasing prospect from here since Beef or Salmon, better than Kicking King or War of Attrition and the way he won at Down Royal was very impressive to my bare eye, as I haven't seen a replay iirc he made a slight error at the last but continued to stay on and pass Sizing Europe. The Nightingale was 8 or 9 lengths back in third that day and he would have won the Peterborough Chase lto had he not fallen(early) imo.
Rubi Light is a decent type but got beaten 70 odd lengths by Sizing Europe albeit over 4f less I don't see how that line of form can be overlooked.
Quito for me at any price down to 6/4.
I actually think Noland is ew value in this race too 11/1 with Billy Hills and SJ 3 places 9 runners so 1 late withdrawal of an outsider wouldn't do damage.


I also really fancy Vlv to beat Mourad 11/8 will do fine for me.

As for the novice chase I wouldnt touch Last Installment or First Lieutenant a watching brief for me.

[Aya14]

^^^ Sizing Europe was in the course of finishing 15 lengths behind Rubi Light that day in Gowran until Rubi fell at the last and remounted for 4th place prize money.

You are correct, missed that, "soon led, good jump 5 out and went on, reduced lead approaching straight, asserted from before 2 out and soon in command, drifted to right and fell last, remounted to finish 3rd".

Meh still fancy QDLR.

[Wesley Harms]

You are correct, missed that, "soon led, good jump 5 out and went on, reduced lead approaching straight, asserted from before 2 out and soon in command, drifted to right and fell last, remounted to finish 3rd".

Meh still fancy QDLR

So, you say that QDLR is a better prospect than 2 impressive Gold Cup winners, one a dual King George winner, both Punchestown Gold cup winners. Both runners up in the Novice 2 mile hurdling championship at Cheltenham and both started Fav for the Arkle (unless KK was 2nd fav to THisthatandtother, not sure havent checked) Wow. Just WOW

Also you do realize that both horses were better than Beef or Salmon who basically mopped up small runner fields in Ireland on bad ground.

Then you make an assumption on Rubi Light based on the bare result of a race you didn't watch.

Sorry but I have to call you out on this crock of shit.

[Arazi]

Yeah I was gonna reply and then just thought what's the point.

[NewApproach]

So, you say that QDLR is a better prospect than 2 impressive Gold Cup winners, one a dual King George winner, both Punchestown Gold cup winners. Both runners up in the Novice 2 mile hurdling championship at Cheltenham and both started Fav for the Arkle (unless KK was 2nd fav to THisthatandtother, not sure havent checked) Wow. Just WOW

Also you do realize that both horses were better than Beef or Salmon who basically mopped up small runner fields in Ireland on bad ground.

Then you make an assumption on Rubi Light based on the bare result of a race you didn't watch.

Sorry but I have to call you out on this crock of shit.

When are you gonna move your ass out of your box and run in a race?

[Strewelpeter]

When are you gonna move your ass out of your box and run in a race?

.
Like Dennis Foley at the Moriarty Tribunal they're 'Hoping against hope'...

[kpnuts]

Betfair meltdown.
€2million matched Voler La Vedette @ 28/1 in running when he shoulda been 1.01.
Nothing matched below 2.96

[nicnicnic]

Betfair meltdown.
€2million matched Voler La Vedette @ 28/1 in running when he shoulda been 1.01.
Nothing matched below 2.96

interesting times

[nicnicnic]

100 million would be needed in an account to offer what was available

[The Situation]

Wow that really is very odd. She looked the likely winner from very early in that race too especially with lack of front running pace.


Would like to see VLV take on Quevega at Chelts.

[Wesley Harms]

Would live to see VLV take on Quevega at Chelts.

We already saw it and she got annihilated. I want to see Quevega take on Big Bucks

[nicnicnic]

guys backing it at 29s on betfair and laying 14s on betdaq are destroyed I'd say

[biscuits]

i think noland will run well in the lexus am going to part with a few euros on him and get my drinking money for the westwood reunion tonight(i hope)

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Wesley Harms]

QDLR has no business even running in the Gold Cup after that unfortunately. He's too slow.

[The Situation]

Good race imo, lots of big leaps from the leaders late on when tired. Think Quito would have preffered more of a stamina test, was a generous enough pace.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Opr]

what happened on betfair. Just wrong odds? any thread talking about it?

£1.64m matched in running at 29/1 on Voler La Vedette. The huge price was offered when it was still very likely to win the race.

Opr

[nicnicnic]

100 million would be needed in an account to offer what was available

600 million

had 1000 at 29s between two of us early enough in the race, id say 1000/1 to collect

[westlife]

14 second placed finishes over the Christmas and Shane Rock puts the icing on the cake.........

[rounders123]

Surely nobody has anything close to that amount of money in an account so it has to be a site error. Id say the resolution might be to void and pay back all inrunning betting on that race. Still leaves those who layed off elsewhere in a bad spot. Anyone hear roughly what was said to be layed at crazy priced in betdaq etc?.
Any new news?

[nicnicnic]

Surely nobody has anything close to that amount of money in an account so it has to be a site error. Id say the resolution might be to void and pay back all inrunning betting on that race. Still leaves those who layed off elsewhere in a bad spot. Anyone hear roughly what was said to be layed at crazy priced in betdaq etc?.
Any new news?

no news was being laid at 4/1 on in running place market - some speculation that it my of been a mistake by someone holding an unlimited credit account with betfair.

[Percy007]

https://www.sportismadeforbetting.com

[DeadParrot]

thought there is a bit of value in taking on the Fav in the 6.50 at Wolves with Tawseef, has met and been close this fav before and has a few pounds in hand on the previous meeting, with 8 runners e/w at 12/1 will do for me

[rounders123]

no news was being laid at 4/1 on in running place market - some speculation that it my of been a mistake by someone holding an unlimited credit account with betfair.

Jazus i could believe a mistake of some sort if it was just the one market but the place market aswell!. If it was an unlimited credit account maybe a big players missus caught the old man playing away and got her revenge. This is a case that you'd happily take the stilettos instead

[nicnicnic]

[nicnicnic]

Jazus i could believe a mistake of some sort if it was just the one market but the place market aswell!. If it was an unlimited credit account maybe a big players missus caught the old man playing away and got her revenge. This is a case that you'd happily take the stilettos instead

lol this could run for a while


other market ricks would of been driven by the initial rick - same as the guys laying on betdaq, assuming a lost weight cloth of wrong course taken.

[BennyHiFi]

Official response from Betfair: In running bets void on 2:00 Leopardstown

Customers betting in-play on this race will have seen that Voler La Vedette was available to back at 29 when the in-running market was suspended, and that a considerable sum was matched on the clear winner at that price.

An investigation has revealed that this was due to an obvious technical failure which allowed a customer to exceed their exposure limit.

In accordance with our terms and conditions, all in running bets on this race, both win and place, will be made void.

We fully appreciate the dissatisfaction this will cause many customers, and apologise for a very poor customer and betting experience.

[amberleaf]

is this what you would call a fat finger moment by betfair?


fat-finger: vt.
1. To introduce a typo while editing in such a way that the resulting manglification of a configuration file does something useless, damaging, or wildly unexpected. “NSI fat-fingered their DNS zone file and took half the net down again.”

2. More generally, any typo that produces dramatically bad results

[NewApproach]

Betfair have left themselves open to all sorts of legal issues judging by that statement. Easy for them to say "in accordance with our terms and conditions" but they do not cite which specific term it is.

So one account exceeded their agreed exposure limit. then other completely unrelated accounts took a price which was on offer. As far as I can see the fact one account exceeded their exposure limit has nothing to do with another account placing a bet on the 29 shot. yes it was obviously a misprice but dont thousands of people trade on misprices every day on betfair. This is definitely going to end up in court imo, assuming the parties who had substantial sums on can organise themselves well enough.

Fact is that there was no malfunction on the market itself. One guys account went over it's limit. That's an issue between betfair and that account holder in question, nothing to do with the people who have now had bets voided.

I should add I wasn't on (unfortunately)

[Emmet]

the difference between a 4/1 and a 29/1 isn't a simple misprice. It's palpable error.

Can't imagine that Betfair will have any problems explaining their way out of it. The shitstorm arrives when people who've arb-ed on the palpable error come screaming.

[NewApproach]

the difference between a 4/1 and a 29/1 isn't a simple misprice. It's palpable error.

Can't imagine that Betfair will have any problems explaining their way out of it. The shitstorm arrives when people who've arb-ed on the palpable error come screaming.

It's different on betfair though. If I want to lay €500 on a 16.0 selection, but instead lay €160 at 500.0, could I ring up betfair and ask them to cancel the bet as I made it by mistake? Obv they will tell me it's hard luck which is correct. They wouldn't cancel it in that case even though I made a clear error, nor should they in this.

[eagle eye]

I was having a lot of problems with Betfair of late. I would be going easy on them when I say they don't seem to give a continental about their customers.

[nicnicnic]

QDLR ran a nice trial run today, they didnt go that fast, gold cup more to his liking, most encoragingly I liked his jumping. That said, I thought Synchronised would be lapped, hats off to Tom Segal, dont know what he saw but he saw it.

how does QDLR ever finish in front of today's winner on that run ?

[GingerMilla]

how does QDLR ever finish in front of today's winner on that run ?

I thought it was an inspired ride by Tony McCoy in a race run at a muddling pace that suited his mount.

QDLR is a serious staying animal in the same calibre as a Hedgehunter, Papillon or Commanche Court, possibly not good enough to win a gold cup but meriting serious consideration for a future grand national as the horse posesses all the characteristics needed for a test of stamina around aintree, safe jumper, high cruising speed and a doggedness needed to win over the maximum trip. Indeed the horse has won a novice chase at the track last year.

I backed the horse when 2nd behind Bostons Angel this time last year in a novice chase at leop and thought that an injection of pace in what was a tactical race was not to his liking.
It was the same at leop yesterday, going far better than Synchronised two out but just not finding enough over the trip.

[NewApproach]

The race wasn't really run to suit him and I also thought Davy gave him a bad ride (why didn't he kick on 3 out given he stays so well and they went slow early), but he still needs to improve a lot to be a GC winner this season imo. He runs in the Irish Hennessy next, hopefully he will improve in that on today.

[nicnicnic]

I thought it was an inspired ride by Tony McCoy in a race run at a muddling pace that suited his mount.

QDLR is a serious staying animal in the same calibre as a Hedgehunter, Papillon or Commanche Court, possibly not good enough to win a gold cup but meriting serious consideration for a future grand national as the horse posesses all the characteristics needed for a test of stamina around aintree, safe jumper, high cruising speed and a doggedness needed to win over the maximum trip. Indeed the horse has won a novice chase at the track last year.

I backed the horse when 2nd behind Bostons Angel this time last year in a novice chase at leop and thought that an injection of pace in what was a tactical race was not to his liking.
It was the same at leop yesterday, going far better than Synchronised two out but just not finding enough over the trip.

were talking GC

I was of the same opinion as BCB "Synchronised would be lapped" what you saying about, QDLR, do you think any of this and more cant be attributed to Synchronised, he's not exactly a speed machine

[GingerMilla]

The race wasn't really run to suit him and I also thought Davy gave him a bad ride (why didn't he kick on 3 out given he stays so well and they went slow early), but he still needs to improve a lot to be a GC winner this season imo. He runs in the Irish Hennessy next, hopefully he will improve in that on today.

Yhe Davy Russell hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late if you ask me. My top three nh jockeys presently riding in ireland would be Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty and Andrew Lynch and after that Townend, Paul Carberry, Russell and Casey in no particular order. One thing for sure i wouldn't fancy having the kitchen sink on a Davy Russell mount and if i were the owner of the Giggingstown operation I'd have Andrew Lynch in as my main man. I think he's shown himself to be a superb big race jockey with his piloting of Sizing Europe and indeed that other Sizing horse who he guided to victory in the cross country at Cheltenham last March.

[nicnicnic]

ah lads FFS a bad 3rd beaten 11 lengths and its Davy Russells fault ?

[GingerMilla]

ah lads FFS a bad 3rd beaten 11 lengths and its Davy Russells fault ?

It's just a personal opinion, Nicky, that I'd be more confident of Walsh, Geraghty or Lynch on the big day, riding a promising chaser or indeed any big race. I mean i didn't back QDLR or indeed First Lieutenant who just happened to stumble badly in his last two races. I suppose i could mention Bog Warrior who fell on Monday, no fault of Davy's perhaps but then he appeared to take a slight pull when the horse was in full stride towards his ultimate downfall. He also had the choice of Bog warrior or First Lieutenant in the Drinmore and opted for the latter in a race where Bog warrior proved to be a class above. Maybe there is a lot of politics involved with Giggingnstown but if that was his honest choice it doesen't say much for his judgement. I just think he can be a careless jockey at times and personally I wouldn't trust him with my hard earned.

[Strewelpeter]

He also had the choice of Bog warrior or First Lieutenant in the Drinmore and opted for the latter in a race where Bog warrior proved to be a class above. .

That's a lot of conclusion based on very little evidence IMO.

[The Situation]

I am leaning more towards us all having synchronised well wrong.

Didn't catch yesterdays racing post, what was Segal's reasoning for picking Sychronised?

Found the media reaction post race a little lazy- average British staying chaser wins grade 1 in Ireland therefore Irish staying chasers are abysmal. It could well pan out that way but I wouldn't have jumped to such a hasty conclusion based on a race that was run at a far slower pace than the gold cup will likely be. I maintain that the front 3 all put in a solid round of jumping yesterday.

[Aya14]

So, you say that QDLR is a better prospect than 2 impressive Gold Cup winners, one a dual King George winner, both Punchestown Gold cup winners. Both runners up in the Novice 2 mile hurdling championship at Cheltenham and both started Fav for the Arkle (unless KK was 2nd fav to THisthatandtother, not sure havent checked) Wow. Just WOW

Also you do realize that both horses were better than Beef or Salmon who basically mopped up small runner fields in Ireland on bad ground.

Then you make an assumption on Rubi Light based on the bare result of a race you didn't watch.

Sorry but I have to call you out on this crock of shit.

Beef or Salmon was superior to both WOA and KK he beat both.I know he was beaten by both at the festival too but Cheltenham didn't suit BOS that's all about it.

As for QDLR I overhyped it and maybe got it wrong, get over it man. I backed him at 33/1 with William Hills this morning all of 27quid on him just in case as I reckon he'll stil run and go off shorter.

Rubi light not picking through the form properly was a little stupid agreed.
I thought Noland ran an encouraging race and will come back to form soon first run in 11 months afaik.


Does this make Sychronised a genuine GC contender?


Anyone else fancy Shot from the hip and Unaccompanied today?

[FeetMagic]

Might be silly but I backed it with Boyles, couldn't get money on anywhere else in time!