Football-betting thread

[mdoug]

I might have lost my bollox drunk omaha last night and lost almost every premiership this weekend but man do I love Finnish football!!! Nice profitable weekend now with one accum relying on United for like ~80 more



Not settled yet but all winners shipshipshippppppp



edit: p.s. jazz had 2 players sent off with 10+ minutes to go! PHEW.

[FeetMagic]

Like Chelsea DNB at 5/4. Also having a bet on 2-1 Chels at 11s.

[PunterAssist]

Japanese J-League

Cerezo Osaka (4th) v Kawasaki Frontale (8th)

Kawasaki's last 15 matches went over 2.5 goals and have the highest goals scored stats in the league thanks to Ōkubo, the league top scorer who has netted in 8 out of his last matches. 6 out of 10 of the last Cerezo home games have gone over 2.5 goals. The last 3 meetings between these sides ended with at least 4 goals. Cerezo have an average of 3 goals in the last 6 matches while Kawasaki have an average of 3.33 goals.

Kawasaki have an enormous average goals per game with a consistent record with 82% of their matches going over 2.5 goals with an average of 3.91 goals per game over the season. Cerezo are a team that plays open football when at home to an attack minded opponent as can be see by their home games this season against Yokohama and Urawa Reds.

Punter Assist Prediction: This match has an 82% chance of going over 2.5 goals. At odds of 1/2 with Paddy Power this yields a ROI of 23%.

Season J-League Stats:
Cerezos matches go over 2.5 goals 52% (63% at home) of the time with an average of 2.52 goals per game.
Kawasaki Frontales matches go over 2.5 goals 82% (83% away) of the time with an average of 3.91 goals per game.
Kawasaki's last 15 matches went over 2.5 goals.

[kaiser soze]

Bayern4/5 drogs 4/7 double for me tonight.

[RobotUnicorn]

Rayo/Galatasary/Dundalk For me tonight. Shippidy Ship Ship.

[Percy007]

Ballinamallard ht/ft 6/4
Ballinamallard -1 9/5

[PunterAssist]

Bayern Munich v Chelsea - UEFA Super Cup

Bayern started their last match with a weakened lineup as Guardiola had rested seven major names for the midweek league encounter, among them the likes of Ribéry, Lahm, Robben, Mandžukić and Alaba in preparation for this match and this is a trophy that Bayern have never won but mainly this is a chance for revenge over Chelsea after they lost the Champions League final to a Drogba masterclass.

Already José Mourinho has added some extra spice by declaring that “under Jupp Heynckes, Bayern were the best in Europe. Now, I'm not so sure.” This will be a showcase for two of the modern eras most celebrated managers and I expect both teams to put in some hard tackles and turn this match into a midfield battle with neither team getting their accustomed dominance in front of goal.

Chelsea have bought almost every available midfielder this summer to the point where they could make a challenge for the top 4 in the premier league with a team completely comprised of midfielders and they are catching Bayern at an opportune moment as Bayern have, by their standards, been struggling to score, notching up only one goal against both Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt.

To add to Guardiola's woes, two of his key midfielders, Thiago and Javi Martínez, are currently out through injury with Lahm taking up the defensive midfield position which will restrict Bayerns attacking options as they can't leave him exposed and there is the added factor of Pep Guardiola's system at Barcelona which was very intricate, and it takes a lot of time for players to master it.

Mourinho will set Chelsea up more defensively than usual against Bayern who have a huge conversion rate so he will want to restrict their shooting opportunities however his team is not built around defensive strengths as their forwards hold so much possession against most of their opponents even though they restricted Man Utd to 3 shots on target in their last match that was more down to Utds formation and Valencias poor transition play.
In tonights match I would expect about 8-10 shots on target and with both teams having world class goalkeepers I expect them to command their areas very well and both keepers have the confidence to catch the ball rather than punch it and both sets of defenses are comprised of extremely efficient internationals who will not panic under pressure. The current price of 1.83 on over 2.5 goals is correct in my opinion and I am much more interested in the market of total goals in the match to be exactly 2 or 3 goals @ evens with Bet365 and Paddy Power which I predict to occur approx 55% of the time.


The market that hold the most appeal for me in this match is the corners and I am going with total corners to be under 9 at 3.00 with #Ladbrokes which I expect to win approx 50% of the time for a massive ROI of 50%.


#Chelsea lineup: Cech; Ivanovic, Cahill, D Luiz, Cole; Ramires, Lampard (c); Hazard, Oscar, Schurrle; Torres.
#BayernMunich Lineup: Neuer - Dante, Ribéry, Mandzukić, Robben, Rafinha, Boateng, Lahm, Müller, Alaba, Kroos

[Percy007]

Ballinamallard ht/ft 6/4
Ballinamallard -1 9/5

Hold please

[BallymoreChris]

anyone have the figures on the amount of goals scored in the second half of PL games against goals scored in the first half?

Its even money with Boyles that more goal's are scored in the second half of Liverpool/Utd game on Sunday.

[smoothcall]

anyone have the figures on the amount of goals scored in the second half of PL games against goals scored in the first half?

Its even money with Boyles that more goal's are scored in the second half of Liverpool/Utd game on Sunday.

do you lose on a draw?

[BallymoreChris]

do you lose on a draw?

yes.

[smoothcall]

yes.

sounds awful then

[BallymoreChris]

sounds awful then

I found a stat that 28% of PL games are 0-0 at half time but 74% are 1-0 1-1 or 0-1

I'd expect a very tight opening 45 on Sunday (thoughts?) and 0-0 at half time is likely.

[BallymoreChris]

I'm not saying I think its a good bet I'm just trying to understand why its not....

[Flushdraw]

anyone have the figures on the amount of goals scored in the second half of PL games against goals scored in the first half?

Its even money with Boyles that more goal's are scored in the second half of Liverpool/Utd game on Sunday.

For this season, 18 first half, 27 second half

[BallymoreChris]

For this season, 18 first half, 27 second half

the ratio would have to be closer to 2 to 1, I thought it would be.

[RasTa]

United are 2/1 win and 21/10 draw no bet with coral.

[smoothcall]

I found a stat that 28% of PL games are 0-0 at half time but 74% are 1-0 1-1 or 0-1

I'd expect a very tight opening 45 on Sunday (thoughts?) and 0-0 at half time is likely.

102% accounted for already.

Looking at the Over/Under lines, first half line is 1 and over all line is 2.5, so roughly 1.5 for second half. so 1 to 1.5 and you lose on pushes is bad, better off just betting unders in the first half if you think that.

[BallymoreChris]

Would have got the sweep in today's matches

[mdoug]

Would have got the sweep in today's matches

Hopefully another this game, am on the 0-0 full time for a tenner at 9/1. Planning for this to send me to napland while watching it
also have a fiver on 0-0, united draw & arsenal draw just for funs.

[kaiser soze]

Fair play to anyone who made money there today.

[durkadurka]

i had 4 draws for the PL afternoon games, was looking so good for a while. then did an inplay newcastle,stoke, everton,

[Kenny]

Anyone having a punt on West Brom Vs Swansea? Not sure weather to touch it, was thinking of including the game to make a treble tomorrow.

[kaiser soze]

Its quite possible one, two or all of them could be draws tomorrow in premiership.

[PunterAssist]

Arsenal v Tottenham

Tottenham come into this match 3 points ahead of Arsenal thanks to two narrow 1-0 wins, both Soldado penalties. Arsenal have won 5-2 in the last two North London derbies at The Emirates, with Tottenham’s 3-2 win in 2010 being their first away win at Arsenal in the Premier League since 1993 however Tottenham have failed to concede a goal this season and look a much more solid team with Capoue, Sandro, Dembele and Paulinho vying for places in midfield.

Arsenal will be without Lukas Podolski after the German limped off with a torn hamstring in their 3-0 win over Fenerbahce in midweek. Gareth Bale won’t play for Tottenham again and is expected to complete his move to Real Madrid in the next couple of days.

This fixture has produced more goals than any other fixture in Premier League history and in previous seasons this match would have been a clear over 2.5 goals bet, which would have won in the last 9 meetings, but with Tottenham's new personnel changing their style from being a very fast counter attacking team to a more compact high pressing team and Podolski's injury the 1.7 (Bet365) for over 2.5 goals is looking to be the fair odds.

10 of Olivier Giroud’s 11 goals came at The Emirates last season and he has never scored outside of London in the Premier League and he can be had at 2.88 (Stan James) to score anytime which does appeal as Arsenal will have to try to play a more long ball approach to their big frontman to combat the physicality of Tottenham's midfield.

Tottenham will need Paulinho’s energy in midfield alongside Capoue and Mousa Dembele to limit the time that Arsenal’s more creative players such as Santi Cazorla and Jack Wilshere (doubtful) have on the ball.

There is an added element to this match in that it is a north London derby and both teams fans will demand 100% commitment and it is very likely that these two teams will be playing for 4th place this season so it is more important not to lose than it is to win this match.

Arsenal head into the game with a host of injuries, as midfielders Jack Wilshere (ankle) and Aaron Ramsey (groin) are both doubts, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee), Thomas Vermaelen (back), Mikel Arteta (thigh) and Lukas Podolski (hamstring) all miss out. Tottenham have doubts over the fitness of Aaron Lennon (ankle).

Arsenal had a good win over Fenerbahce midweek to follow up their impressive win over Fulham last weekend while Tottenham have made hard work against bottom half teams in their opening two league games.

Tottenham will be on the back foot in this match and their midfield will be putting in some strong tackles to combat the speed of Arsenal's midfield and they will get a few yellow cards especially if Arsenal take the lead who go into this match as favourites while Tottenham are still getting to know their new players.

Recommended Bet: Tottenham -0.5 Total Cards @ 1.825 (Bet365)

Predicted strike rate: 70% for a ROI of 28%

[FeetMagic]

Spurs win at 11/4. Double on overs at Emirates and unders at Anfield. And fgs double of Sturridge and Giroud.

[Guest]

Spurs to win and Utd Spurs dbl for me, just had a look at team news and other than how Utd badly need some help around the middle, I noticed how weak Liverpools bench looks, a couple of injuries this season and they could struggle

Forget all that Liverpool to win the premiership

[shano1888]

Spurs win at 11/4. Double on overs at Emirates and unders at Anfield. And fgs double of Sturridge and Giroud.

Nice one what did that double pay?

[BallymoreChris]

Spurs win at 11/4. Double on overs at Emirates and unders at Anfield. And fgs double of Sturridge and Giroud.

If Carlsberg did betting slips....

[mdoug]

Arsenal v Tottenham

Tottenham come into this match 3 points ahead of Arsenal thanks to two narrow 1-0 wins, both Soldado penalties. Arsenal have won 5-2 in the last two North London derbies at The Emirates, with Tottenham’s 3-2 win in 2010 being their first away win at Arsenal in the Premier League since 1993 however Tottenham have failed to concede a goal this season and look a much more solid team with Capoue, Sandro, Dembele and Paulinho vying for places in midfield.

Arsenal will be without Lukas Podolski after the German limped off with a torn hamstring in their 3-0 win over Fenerbahce in midweek. Gareth Bale won’t play for Tottenham again and is expected to complete his move to Real Madrid in the next couple of days.

This fixture has produced more goals than any other fixture in Premier League history and in previous seasons this match would have been a clear over 2.5 goals bet, which would have won in the last 9 meetings, but with Tottenham's new personnel changing their style from being a very fast counter attacking team to a more compact high pressing team and Podolski's injury the 1.7 (Bet365) for over 2.5 goals is looking to be the fair odds.

10 of Olivier Giroud’s 11 goals came at The Emirates last season and he has never scored outside of London in the Premier League and he can be had at 2.88 (Stan James) to score anytime which does appeal as Arsenal will have to try to play a more long ball approach to their big frontman to combat the physicality of Tottenham's midfield.

Tottenham will need Paulinho’s energy in midfield alongside Capoue and Mousa Dembele to limit the time that Arsenal’s more creative players such as Santi Cazorla and Jack Wilshere (doubtful) have on the ball.

There is an added element to this match in that it is a north London derby and both teams fans will demand 100% commitment and it is very likely that these two teams will be playing for 4th place this season so it is more important not to lose than it is to win this match.

Arsenal head into the game with a host of injuries, as midfielders Jack Wilshere (ankle) and Aaron Ramsey (groin) are both doubts, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee), Thomas Vermaelen (back), Mikel Arteta (thigh) and Lukas Podolski (hamstring) all miss out. Tottenham have doubts over the fitness of Aaron Lennon (ankle).

Arsenal had a good win over Fenerbahce midweek to follow up their impressive win over Fulham last weekend while Tottenham have made hard work against bottom half teams in their opening two league games.

Tottenham will be on the back foot in this match and their midfield will be putting in some strong tackles to combat the speed of Arsenal's midfield and they will get a few yellow cards especially if Arsenal take the lead who go into this match as favourites while Tottenham are still getting to know their new players.

Recommended Bet: Tottenham -0.5 Total Cards @ 1.825 (Bet365)

Predicted strike rate: 70% for a ROI of 28%

Have you got an roi on your tips for the past few weeks/months?

[kaiser soze]

Have you got an roi on your tips for the past few weeks/months?

yeah and I might read another 1 of those tips.

[mugsy]

Have you got an roi on your tips for the past few weeks/months?

id also like to know if you are pulling japanese football predictions out your hole. ever watch a game?

[FeetMagic]

Nice one what did that double pay?

Just under 25/1. Wasn't as profitable an afternoon as it appears though as the other 2 bets were far bigger.

[Jam-Fly]

what price would people give for United+Tottenham points total vs Liverpool+Arsenal points total?

[Pistol Peter]

what price would people give for United+Tottenham points total vs Liverpool+Arsenal points total?

united and spurs about 5 or 6 point favs id say

[FeetMagic]

I'd go higher I think, 8-10. Don't know what prices reflect that; 1/2 or shorter on United side.

[mdoug]

Mainz 05 II at home @1.6 seems like huge value today at 1pm. I don't know the league super well but I am going to go very heavy on this one for many statistical reasons, below is one of the simple examples of why the lumpage

Sun 18/08/13: Mainz 05 II (5 - 1) Ulm
Fri 23/08/13: Ulm (5 - 1) Eintracht Frankfurt
Today: Mains 05 II vs Eintracht Frankfurt


1.6 seems a nice price is all

[Flushdraw]

Mainz 05 II at home @1.6 seems like huge value today at 1pm. I don't know the league super well but I am going to go very heavy on this one for many statistical reasons, below is one of the simple examples of why the lumpage

Sun 18/08/13: Mainz 05 II (5 - 1) Ulm
Fri 23/08/13: Ulm (5 - 1) Eintracht Frankfurt
Today: Mains 05 II vs Eintracht Frankfurt


1.6 seems a nice price is all

Where did you get these results from? I can only see Eintract beating Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 on 25/8?

This is only game played on the 23/8 that i can see

23 Aug, 19:30 Borussia Dortmund 1 - 0 Werder Bremen

B team or womens or something?

[joedolan]

Where did you get these results from? I can only see Eintract beating Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 on 25/8?

This is only game played on the 23/8 that i can see

23 Aug, 19:30 Borussia Dortmund 1 - 0 Werder Bremen

B team or womens or something?

It's regional league, 4th tier of Greman football

[NuckChorris]

the 5-1 result is from the Regional Southwest league (http://my.soccerway.com/matches/2013...-1846/1505914/), not the Bundesliga. ALthough in the Bundesliga Mainz won their first three games then got stuffed 4-1 at hannover last time out so maybe not a bad bet, but data is wrong alright.

[mdoug]

Yeah I meant the southwest league - for some reason when I copied the results the II wasn't there after frankfurt no idea why.

1.58 on betfair atm and 1.61 on pp. Ah just early morning gamble is all, they look a nice price is all. Have gone for them to win @8/13 and them -1 @9/5. Sure what else are ya gonna do early on a wednesday morning.
Won on a u19's game earlier so have lumped all of it on this. Spinupaments for the win


edit: 1-0 down after 16 minutes, definitely keeping the faith here. They are a second half kind of team, 4-1 on the cards

[mdoug]

Kind of hope someone else backed it just because of that sick sweat
2-1 at half time, 82' minute went to 2-2
Stroke of 90th they got their 3rd and it ended 3-2. Eh, obviously need to do some work before betting or even tipping but I'll take the profit sure since it is offered .

Who knew a Wednesday could start so well, to fourstar pizza for their €5 deal I go!
Will post more shite tips later probs, 4th tier football ftw!

[Guest]

I think Belgium are super value at 3/4 vs Scotland tonight, they are one of the most improved teams in the world right now. Missing Kompany but still solid at the back. Felliani(signing of the season ) Hazard, Dembele in the middle and Benteke and possibly Lukaka up front. It's in Scotland but really fancy them and will probably take a bit of them -1 at 21/10

My bad Hazard is injured and is a doubt but could still play a part, conflicting stories at the minute, maybe -1 isnt as appealing

[kaiser soze]

Have been looking at Belgium since yesterday feel they are defo superior quality than Scotland, but strachan has the Scottish playing with a bit of pride lately, will stick Belgium in a bet with Portugal but won't be goin near the -1 I think it could be a lot closer.

[mdoug]

Spain, France, Poland, Greece, Portugal, Ireland(dnb), Kazakhstan, Czech Republic, Czech Republic, Draw(italy-bulgaria), Wales, Belgium

the auld €8 accum for loads of loots - good laugh. I reckon it'll come in 3% of the time so watch this space!!!
Also €10 free bet on O'Shea to score first @55/1. I'm gonna be rich soon

[Guest]

Spain, France, Poland, Greece, Portugal, Ireland(dnb), Kazakhstan, Czech Republic, Czech Republic, Draw(italy-bulgaria), Wales, Belgium

the auld €8 accum for loads of loots - good laugh. I reckon it'll come in 3% of the time so watch this space!!!
Also €10 free bet on O'Shea to score first @55/1. I'm gonna be rich soon

Have a decent bet riding on Belgium after my NFL bet came in. Done Germany -1, Poland, France, Belgium and Portugal too ftw.

[kaiser soze]

Backing the draw in Ireland/Sweden match at 11/5.

Treble potugal Belgium peterborough

[CHDad]

Going to back Scotland and Ireland to draw.

[mdoug]

congoooo congooo congooo, gotta get the bet on congo...
13/8 away to bottom of the group and they need to win to go through... Looks decent to me so why not - I haven't actually watched the african qualifiers so anyone with more knowledge please advise if it is a bad bet

otherwise: just a medium sized bet on congo ftw, then a small accum on them + Burkino + Senegal


edit: all my teams go down 1-0 ffs! COME ON THE COMEBACK!!!!!!!!!!

[Flushdraw]

Serbia are overpriced v Wales @ 13/8 IMO. Wales are on the back of a 2-1 defeat to Macedonia, and playing Serbia who beat them 6-1 last year. Wales will be missing 3 players from the team that started v Macedonia. Ricketts and Williams look to be out with injuries, captain Williams is suspended and Bale is unlikely to start again.

Neither team has won any of their last 3 games, but Wales record of 3-1-8 from their last 12 includes 2 x 2-1 wins over Scotland but are in dire form. Serbia have't been in great form either but i think they'll stretch their winning running over Wales to 4 from 4.

Also have a sneaky feeling that 11/10 on N Ireland away to Luxembourg could be a decent price. Then again, the North only seem to up their game v the bigger teams but this is one they are definitely capable of winning.

[Micknail]

Agree on Serbia.
Also, Norn iron are missing Brunt and Lafferty due to red cards for the next game.

[mdoug]

sigh I hate you scotland so very fucking much, had a tenner accum on france-italy-finland-slovenia-bosnia(dnb)-england draw-scotland draw
some of the others aren't in yet but 89th minute moloney... bastard!

[MegaSin]

sigh I hate you scotland so very fucking much, had a tenner accum on france-italy-finland-slovenia-bosnia(dnb)-england draw-scotland draw
some of the others aren't in yet but 89th minute moloney... bastard!

Had them as well. Fuckers.

[Flushdraw]

sigh I hate you scotland so very fucking much, had a tenner accum on france-italy-finland-slovenia-bosnia(dnb)-england draw-scotland draw
some of the others aren't in yet but 89th minute moloney... bastard!

Something similar. Had an 8 team accum, and 6 up but Icasa of Brazil conceded an 88th minute equaliser to fuck it up. Don't even get a chance to sweat Costa Rica against Jamaica and lay some off to freeroll it. Boo urns

[mugsy]

O-zil to the arsenal

got to be punted until it comes up starting this weekend 30/1 pp ( arsenal win 1-0 and ozil first goal). Might take a few games to come in but i reckon will get there soon enough

[Flushdraw]

O-zil to the arsenal

got to be punted until it comes up starting this weekend 30/1 pp ( arsenal win 1-0 and ozil first goal). Might take a few games to come in but i reckon will get there soon enough

40/1 on BetVictor

Prefer 2-0 @ 45/1 though

[The Situation]

Speaking of Ozil, thought I was being a shrewdy the other day going to nab an early big price on him being player of the year, but to my disappointment he was already put in as 2nd favourite. He probably is the best player in the league now imo, or at least on par with RVP but you have to wonder how long Robin has left at his peak.

[mugsy]

its more to suit the chant and headlines thats sure to happen. Hope arsenal score a few.

thanks for pointing out bv price dont have an account there but checked oddschecker and ladbrokes go 45/1 too. PP are confirmed scorecast shavers. Thats a big difference.

[Flushdraw]

Speaking of Ozil, thought I was being a shrewdy the other day going to nab an early big price on him being player of the year, but to my disappointment he was already put in as 2nd favourite. He probably is the best player in the league now imo, or at least on par with RVP but you have to wonder how long Robin has left at his peak.

Pretty excited about tomorrow. Watched a few videos over the last couple of weeks and he makes some of the stuff he does look so effortless. His range of passing and his vision looks incredible and he's so unselfish infront of goal. The glaring difference though between Arsenal and Madrid, is that Giroud is no Ronaldo, so Ozil can create chance after chance, but we still need a world class striker up front to get the full benefit of him. I'll cut off my left bollock if Wenger hasn't already put the wheels in motion to bring in somebody special in the January window.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSGnDooQ3sc

[The C Kid]

Arsenal's fans constant derision of Giroud shows you generally how clueless they are.