Fitz EOM. I play it from time to time but I know that the field is generally strong and many players have an edge on me. UTG is a well-known player who does not know me and we never played together before last night. We were at the same table for the first few levels and I know that he thinks he has a very good read on me – and he’s probably right (but at least I am aware of this ). For example he will have observed me folding to re-raises or to donk bets on the flop where I was the pre-flop opener (prob too frequently).
Our table was broken after the first break and before the second break he is moved to my table again. I am now two seats to his left.
The hand in question is shortly before the second break (I think) and I am not sure of some of the details, but I think I can recall the pertinent elements…..
Blinds are 400/800 with a 50 ante. I have about 24k and he is about the same… maybe a bit more.
He opens for a small raise which is fairly standard for him… he has been active including when he has been in early position so I think his range is relatively wide. I call with KJs.
Flop comes QJTr. He bets 1.5k. I think for a while and raise to 4k. He considers briefly and re-pops to 10k. My thought process now is along the following lines (not exactly structured like this but these were the elements running through my mind):
• He is sure I do not have AK, QQ+ and am unlikely to have JJ, TT as I would have re-raised pre flop
• 2 pair is possible
• I am more likely to have AQ, AJ, AT. KQ / KJ are also possible
I am also pretty confident that he does NOT think that I am going to run through the situation from his point of view… in other words I think that I can out-level him here. So it makes sense to me that he will raise to 10k with a lot of hands that are behind me here (and some that are ahead – but at least I have some outs). I could call and see if he bets the turn. I could shove and might have some fold equity (not so sure about that?) Or I could fold and get picked on by someone else.
So anyway after all this analysis I chicken out and fold just because, I don’t know, I want to stay and play poker.
Any views… fold, call or shove?
Our table was broken after the first break and before the second break he is moved to my table again. I am now two seats to his left.
The hand in question is shortly before the second break (I think) and I am not sure of some of the details, but I think I can recall the pertinent elements…..
Blinds are 400/800 with a 50 ante. I have about 24k and he is about the same… maybe a bit more.
He opens for a small raise which is fairly standard for him… he has been active including when he has been in early position so I think his range is relatively wide. I call with KJs.
Flop comes QJTr. He bets 1.5k. I think for a while and raise to 4k. He considers briefly and re-pops to 10k. My thought process now is along the following lines (not exactly structured like this but these were the elements running through my mind):
• He is sure I do not have AK, QQ+ and am unlikely to have JJ, TT as I would have re-raised pre flop
• 2 pair is possible
• I am more likely to have AQ, AJ, AT. KQ / KJ are also possible
I am also pretty confident that he does NOT think that I am going to run through the situation from his point of view… in other words I think that I can out-level him here. So it makes sense to me that he will raise to 10k with a lot of hands that are behind me here (and some that are ahead – but at least I have some outs). I could call and see if he bets the turn. I could shove and might have some fold equity (not so sure about that?) Or I could fold and get picked on by someone else.
So anyway after all this analysis I chicken out and fold just because, I don’t know, I want to stay and play poker.
Any views… fold, call or shove?
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