Only found out last year why they call a collection of songs an album. Comes from when music was sold on 78s, and say 8 songs would require 4 discs. They put those discs in a folder type thingy that resembled a photo album. The name just carried over when LPs took over.
I forgot to mention recently when I was looking for some new podcasts that I came across what appeared to be quite an in-depth one for the music aficionados: https://slate.com/podcasts/hit-parade
Chris Molanphy's Hit Parade, from Slate, isn't the kind of podcast you dip into on the commute. It's more the kind of thing you cancel all your evening plans for. The Bridge trivia episodes, in which Molanphy competes with listeners on music trivia, are fun but it's the major themed episodes that are the real star. Get into the three phases of the Bee Gees; the power of posthumous hits or the chart history of show tunes with Molanphy's meticulously researched deep dives that treat No.1 records with the respect they deserve.
Only found out last year why they call a collection of songs an album. Comes from when music was sold on 78s, and say 8 songs would require 4 discs. They put those discs in a folder type thingy that resembled a photo album. The name just carried over when LPs took over.
10 days ago Italy had 1600 cases and 10 deaths
We had 1 case+ ongoing travel between the countries and basically fuck all preventative measures. The increase in cases here and uk was entirely predictable
Yep. 100%. Anyone that wanted to look into the future just had to look abroad.
I got 2 manatee mugs that I had printed up last Sunday. I like manatees.
Spoilered because manatees are big:
SPOILER
An interesting thing is, I talk about manatees a lot and 50% of people I mention them to have never heard of them. Imagine swimming in a lake in Florida, not knowing they exist, and coming across one!
where does one go to get a mug made up hotspur?
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
Might that have to do with the amount of people they shake hands and do selfies with
A friend of mine is on a campaign team around the country for the seanad this week. A TD shook his hands three times in ten mins. High probability we go the way of Iran when it comes to TDs.
Only found out last year why they call a collection of songs an album. Comes from when music was sold on 78s, and say 8 songs would require 4 discs. They put those discs in a folder type thingy that resembled a photo album. The name just carried over when LPs took over.
Nick Mason did a good series on the history of tech in music
I flew back from Vietnam at the end of last month, the difference between the two countries was really striking. I had a Vietnamese sim card and every day i was getting text messages from the Government with health advice and information, some of them pretty alarming. The swimming pool I went to went from being crowded most days to me swimming alone, and in the Hotel, we all got a letter telling us to avoid human contact as much as possible and to wash our hands frequently.
After all of that, I arrive back in Dublin, via Dubai with a plane full of people from around the world. At the airport, no-one asked anyone where they had been. There was no advice on what to do if you felt unwell, we just walked in. This was two weeks ago. If the Irish government's plan was to wait until the virus had definitely made it to Ireland, then they were doing a great job.
The point about Cheltenham isn't that is going to have such a huge impact, but it's the optics of it. It so obviously should have been cancelled that it's hard to believe the selfishness of people talking a pleasure trip right now.
Back to work on Monday after 2.5 weeks off. Been in bed with a stomach bug since Tuesday and only back to work today. Lordy its going to be some fun today - scaling up remote access and redeploying any somewhat usable old laptop that was laying around.
Rightly or wrongly, if true, that is a major escalation.
I have first hand info that there is some rapid fire construction going on for a number of make shift treatment/containment facilities which need to be finished by the weekend.
still an outside chance of them cancelling the league for this year. what comedy gold that would be
Miseryside will erupt. The Toxteth riots will be a pillow fight in comparison. Curly Perms and taches will be ridden with corona droplets from the mouth foaming and nasal flaring. I will die laughing but a good way to go.
Unfortunately. Theyll rightfully be awarded the title I guess.
Rightly or wrongly, if true, that is a major escalation.
I have first hand info that there is some rapid fire construction going on for a number of make shift treatment/containment facilities which need to be finished by the weekend.
Was thinking earlier that this is gonna be a big hit to housing completions this year.
Fairly lucked out with Coronavirus, was between jobs when it first broke out but managed to secure employment this week and put on straight paid leave for at least 2 weeks where I'll be doing the sum total of no work as I havent had so much as an induction yet:
One positive of this is it will likely do a lot to fix the health service.
Similar to how wars drive innovation. Heard a guy on Newstalk this morning, head of tech innovation in the HSE. Some of the developments he was talking about gave me a lot of hope. Innovations that normally take 2 years to get through red tape are going from idea to implentation in 10 days.
I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
I'd say it's neither. There are a lot of famous people. Kind of the same bias that makes the Birthday Paradox seem amazing.
Prominent folk with money will have a higher number of confirmed cases because they will have access to testing and have more tests performed as a cohort compared to us peasants.
Hanks and the wife just reported being a little under the weather, but had access to testing so went for it, and were found positive. Hoards of peasants out there with similar minor symptoms will never be tested.
Probably stating the obvious here.
Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
Stock market is so weird. Like what good things happened since close of business yesterday that made futures rise 5%
I know someone who sold about 1/3 of their shares a few months ago, shares went up 20%, and they really regretted it, they're actually happier now that the share price has come down.
I know someone who sold about 1/3 of their shares a few months ago, shares went up 20%, and they really regretted it, they're actually happier now that the share price has come down.
I have a mate who is swimming in Ripple at present at 30c a coin.
Combine that with his company shares taking a 25% haircut in recent days and he's a nervous wreck.
Like Wombatman said, these are the days where being a peasant isn't so bad.
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
E.g. slack is worth about $12bn - suggesting the value of e.g. Teams is not much greater, no matter how bigger it becomes. Thats almost nothing compared to the current MSFT value of $1 trillion. Office 365 already has the entire market so is already priced in and hard to see how it gains in value. Plus Office 365 is woeful compared to Google Docs for collaboration. They haven't even worked out how to effortlessly have too people working on the same word doc.
Subscription model combined with vendor dependency = revenue city going forward.
New X box coming out.
You can work on the same doc at the same time now.
I'll buy 5 now @139 and you can be my broker. Either of us can call in the difference after 6 months?
Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
Fairly standard stuff, no? Most of the days with the biggest rises in stock prices in history have followed days with the biggest falls. Key is whether it recoups all its losses, or its quite a feeble recovery compared to the losses.
Probably is, I'm a totally passive investor. Just find it funny the people go to bed and the wake up thinking, "actually its not so bad after all".
Probably is, I'm a totally passive investor. Just find it funny the people go to bed and the wake up thinking, "actually its not so bad after all".
some of it will be machine led, some of it will be investors/managers buying because individual shares are now worth buying because of p/e ratios or cash flow on returns, historical dividends and all that jazz.
Not so much as 'not that bad' but taking a long term view that eventually things will settle down and money comes back in as it tends to do.
My 6-year-old nephew's teacher sent him and his 30 classmates home for #IrelandLockdown yesterday with brand new tin whistles.
This is what happens when a woman gets 30 shitty soap sets for Christmas #Coronavirusireland
Wife works in social welfare, supposed to be closed from yesterday but had to open up and deal with customers this morning, lots of restaurants, bars, small public facing business closing and telling staff tough shit, sign on for a few weeks, must be the same all over the country.
It's the strategy of using 0365 as a beachhead then horsing into value added services in the same ecosystem. MS gonna steal huge market share from the likes of SAP and Salesforce over next 5 years IMHO.
Wife works in social welfare, supposed to be closed from yesterday but had to open up and deal with customers this morning, lots of restaurants, bars, small public facing business closing and telling staff tough shit, sign on for a few weeks, must be the same all over the country.
Tough times ahead.
Friend and half his company just lost their jobs for good due to loss of business. bad times.
A friends friend had a job they just lost due to all their contracts cancelling, set up 5 interviews, all cancelled now and they have to move back to Spain.
I am far more concerned with the amount of koka noodles I just saw somebody buy on their health than this virus.
Jesus, I used to live on them about 20 years ago, especially the week before payday.
You could get a pack of 5 for I think €1.20 or very close to that and a pack of 5 nan breads for about the same price. Two packs of each and that was your dinner and lunch sorted for Monday - Friday for about a fiver and then you'd blow about 200+ quid on booze over the weekend
Read this yesterday. Excellent article but Im bias as love a good graph.
Still a lot of unknowns with Corona but enough info to make the best bet using similar in the past.
UK contrarian approach will undermine neighbours efforts (over v under react) I fear.
One positive of our approach yesterday is that has heightened awareness of best practices to contain this rather than just lock down. Shes delighted as Ive been scrubbing door handles all morning!
Think UKs approach has Johnny public less concerned and under-mobilised
I read that yesterday too, but I think that such articles should be produced by actual experts or even remotely relevant professionals rather than people like him.
Who is he to write an article subtitled "Politicians, Community Leaders, and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?"? His last article was "How to Deliver Your Funny Speech."
Which is not to say that I disagree with anything in the article, but I can't trust this guy's analysis and his charts, nor check sources for them all. He's a marketing guy who has written a book on Star Wars. We should cut the noise ratio and leave such pieces to people who actually know the fields that are relevant.
I read that yesterday too, but I think that such articles should be produced by actual experts or even remotely relevant professionals rather than people like him.
Who is he to write an article subtitled "Politicians, Community Leaders, and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?"? His last article was "How to Deliver Your Funny Speech."
Which is not to say that I disagree with anything in the article, but I can't trust this guy's analysis and his charts, nor check sources for them all. He's a marketing guy who has written a book on Star Wars. We should cut the noise ratio and leave such pieces to people who actually know the fields that are relevant.
Is that not the definition of ad hominem fallacy though?
This may or may not be an original thought of my own.
All efforts were made to make this thought original but with the abundance of thoughts in the world the originality of this thought cannot be guaranteed.
The author is not liable for any issue arising from the platitudinous nature of this post.
I'm all for the democratisation of data. If someone wants to have a go at understanding trends and make a call to action based on their findings, then they should be allowed. Its up to the reader to appraise their work. Deferring to the elders isn't always the right idea. All of his charts are referenced and there's almost no forecasting it, so it can be taken at face value.
Christ I love him. Is there a more consistent producer and dj in electronic music? Rounds was like early 2000s so at it almost 20 years.
Been my pick for best act so many festivals.
I'm all for the democratisation of data. If someone wants to have a go at understanding trends and make a call to action based on their findings, then they should be allowed. Its up to the reader to appraise their work. Deferring to the elders isn't always the right idea. All of his charts are referenced and there's almost no forecasting it, so it can be taken at face value.
I think the facts aren't in dispute ( bar perhaps Chinese hospital stats). Interpretation and assessment is as much of a skill as data aggregation and the quality of that is questionable here.
Its good that people are looking at data however I'm not sure this is a helpful time for sharing this quality of article.
Last edited by Western_Sean; 13-03-20, 16:11.
Reason: To qualify 1st para
The below is a post from someone on boards.ie, he previously identified himself as a consultant doctor, could absolutely be full of shit, but his posts generally have made sense and been consistent.
Well, unfortunately those who didn’t take it very seriously before entered panic mode recently. In studies of how disasters work ( the US military have some really good studies on what happens in disasters… essentially we’re four missed meals away from the breakdown of law and order which is what was seen after Hurricane Katherina ) you’ll see there are three waves of preparation/panic. The first wave where the anxious and the rational who can see it coming prepare – that was up until last week – the second wave – which began yesterday and will last over the weekend --- the third wave which will begin when the number of deaths makes even those who are currently deluding themselves yield to the objective reality of the situation.
So, what else is going to happen in Ireland? I should make clear that anything I list here is something which can be derived from first principles. I don’t have direct knowledge of most of this stuff but I can extrapolate from the statistics and a couple of decades of working in the HSE. If I have direct knowledge of things then I won’t mention it here as that wouldn’t be appropriate until those things become public knowledge
Firstly, we need to define our terms because there’s lots of absolute BS being talked about here by people who don’t understand what the doctors mean when they say certain things. What most of you call severe illness is, at best, moderate to a doctor. Often it is mild. When doctors are talking about COVID-19 cases as mild, moderate and severe here’s what they really mean:
1. Mild: Doesn’t need hospitalisation. You may feel really sick, you may need home nebulisers, you may be on antibiotics. Doesn’t matter, if you don’t need hospital then you’re mild. Generally when people say they’re severely ill at home we don’t contradict them ( since they certainly feel very ill ) but in our minds you’re all mildly ill with varying levels of whining ;-). Doctors and nurses’ families will tell you how little sympathy they get from us when they tell us they’re sick. We’re the epitome of “If you aren’t hospitalised then you’re fine” even in general life most of the time ;-).
2. Moderate: One of the 10% who are hospitalised but don’t need ventilators. Some of those might still die but most will be just fine – albeit the interstitial lung disease may cause them problems in the medium to long term.
3. Severe: One of the 10% who need ventilation.
The caveat to this is that if we don’t flatten the peak of infection then many people will end up triaged into the “black tag” category and simply won’t be brought to hospital and left to die at home. With the actions the government took yesterday our odds of avoiding that are much better and the more we handwash, socially isolate etc the more we’ll lower it. This is everyone’s civic responsibility.
In mass casualty ethical triage it becomes incumbent upon doctors to not waste resources which could save one person on another who most likely won’t survive. Trying to save both frequently results in both being dead. So, in a mass casualty event the “black tag” category is for those who you only treat once everyone else is treated. The vast majority of those will die by the time you get to them. In the meantime you don’t waste antibiotics, ventilators or other meds on them. You prioritise those for people whom you believe you might be able to save.
For our purposes that’s all you need to know about mass triage except that in this the word ethical refers to it being unethical to waste resources on those who probably won’t live anyway. Right now in Italy their criteria for placing someone into the black tag category appear to be as follows:
a) Everyone over 60
b) Under 60 but with one of the following conditions:
a. Asthma,
b. COAD
c. Cancer
d. Heart Disease
e. CF
f. Diabetes etc
g. Basically any chronic illness.
That’s pretty stark and with the government’s steps and our own actions we can avoid reaching that position. If we are 2 weeks behind them and you assume doubling every 6 days then by socially isolating now we could cut our peak of cases to 25% of the per capita rate they have. That could be the difference between being able to care for most people properly ( 2% mortality – 100 infected with 2 dead ) and being so overwhelmed we have to do mass casualty ethical triage ( up to 10% mortality of 4 times the cases --- 400 infected with 40 dead ). So the maths points to the government’s steps being really powerful ( so long as we do our part --- yesterday wasn’t a high point in us all doing our part ).
So what happens next?
1. Ideally all pubs, restaurants etc closed. Literally give no-one anywhere to go except work, the shops and their homes. This will reduce the peak and that’ll save lives.
2. Use the hotels to house isolation cases returning from abroad with Gardai at the entrance to prevent visitors/escapes. Imprison the first few who break the cordon sanitaire pour encourager les autres.
3. Empty psychiatry units and what people refer to as bed blockers into other hotels which remain empty. Arrange for recalled nurses to care for them, use the hotel staff to feed them and clean the rooms and arrange for meds and oxygen bottles to be dropped off. These hotels should be kept COVID-19 free as much as possible. I estimate you could empty half the non-high dependency hospital beds in the country if you were really ruthless about this.
4. All medical facilities and resources which are currently being utilised to treat those who aren’t seriously ill will be emptied and repurposed. What does this mean?
a. Day Hospitals – those co-located with hospitals will be repurposed to moderate severity cases and staffed by recalled staff.
b. Day Wards – those are going to be repurposed as above
c. Out-patients attached to hospitals will be repurposed with beds brought into the rooms – as above.
d. Massive clearouts of in-patients in medical and surgical wards. Basically if you won’t die if you’re discharged you’ll be discharged.
e. Hospitals will be re-arranged so that a small portion is reserved for non-COVID patients where strict isolation of staff and patients will be observed ( frequent testing of staff at commencement and end of shift and refusal of entry to anyone with a temperature or any other symptom ).
f. The rest of the hospital will be reserved for COVID-19 cases. In these areas sick staff will be allowed to work until they either recover or become too unwell to work. So long as we only have one strain they won’t give anyone a superimposed infection so they should be used until they drop – this is correct and appropriate at this time.
g. All out-patient appointments replaced by telemedicine. Rather hilariously I think this will actually result in more rapid review than currently happens in some specialties as you can get through a lot more patients by phone than when they come in and want to get their time’s worth by going into details etc which don’t really impact on my decision-making process.
h. GP practices will be closed on a rolling bases as GPs are called in to replace A&E and hospital staff who go down with COVID-19/are told to isolate.
By doing all of the above ( and more ) we will be able to create a huge number of beds. The problem will be getting supplementary oxygen for everyone but I’m sure frantic measures to improve oxygen cylinder and oxygen production in general are being made.
5. Police initially and later army deployed to safeguard essential services:
a. Hospitals – preserving cordons sanitaire, preventing visitors etc. I see visitors are still being allowed. I expect this will cease except for terminal cases. Even then I would stop visitors but I don’t think Ireland as a society is ready for that step yet.
b. Supermarkets will have a heavier presence while the 2nd phase of panic lasts. By next week this should abate and they can be redeployed. You can expect to see more on the streets visibly to promote public confidence. They’ll have to go back when the third wave hits but that won’t last long.
c. I’d expect food delivery drivers to be replaced by Gardai/the army sooner rather than later. Tesco/Lidl/Supervalu home delivery services will become national priority services very rapidly. This is sensible as nothing will make people abandoning social distancing quicker than running out of something they think they need ( although this obsession with toilet paper is laughable, albeit based in psychology – people perceive bulky items as in greater scarcity because we don’t look at absolute numbers but volume of empty shelf space… This is one area where we can see our brains aren’t very evolved. We’re still cavepeople with pretensions rather than truly civilised.
d. Pharmacies will end up having some level of increased protection. People will get very pissed when they can’t get a 3 month or even a full month script filled. Initially they’ll just need Gardai on rapid response but in a few months you might find consolidation of pharmacies where one will open one week, another the other etc and a Garda will be posted at the open one during opening hours.
e. Public transport will have to continue as not everyone has cars but you can expect that as the drivers get sick they’ll either be prioritised for masks and/or some soldiers will be retasked to the routes. If they can’t drive the buses we may see army trucks doing the 16A bus route which makes this almost worth it as that thought just strikes me as hilarious --- but to be fair I’m pretty sleep deprived right now.
6. Public sector staff redeployed or sent home on paid child-minding furlough if in a non-essential clinical area. \Otherwise just doing their work by telephone ( although I’m not sure a physio can really get much of their job done by phone, for example ).
So, lots of change but, really, I’m the most positive I’ve been about this since I really dug into the research three weeks ago and ran the statistics about its spread and our capacity to cope with it unless we made drastic changes. We’ve made many drastic changes and while I think we should definitely simply impose a 14 day quarantine in hotels for ALL people entering the island of Ireland ( please don’t get into some debate about 32 vs 26+6 counties. This isn’t a time for that sort of thing, this is the time for an all-ireland plan to prevent the importation of infected people who can spark new clusters. The survivors can then return to arguing about the politics of it all. ). This shouldn’t be isolation at home, it should be isolation in chosen hotels enforced by the Gardai and imprisonment.
Believe me in a few weeks time a month in prison will be a scary prospect for people as prisons can go down very quickly once they get an index case. The prospect of being exposed in prison will be a far greater deterrent than the sentence.
Britain is having a very interesting experiment. They’ve abandoned the Taiwan/Singapore strategy of trying to catch it early and eradicate spread. Instead they’re going for a controlled rate of infection such that their health service doesn’t get overwhelmed and they can get to 60% of the population infected without ever running out of critical care beds. This means they are pretty much accepting 800,000 fatalities out of the 36 million who will get it (assuming 2% survival rate with tx). But once they hit 60% they should begin to get good benefits from herd immunity.
Clearly this implies that their models have shown them that if they don’t get herd immunity by October then when this really hits hard over the months of October to December they’d lose even more than that. This is population-level triage and a really interesting approach. It certainly has face validity but I don’t think that it will be acceptable socially by the population. This is why they are saying that their strategy doesn’t mean accepting a 60% spread when actually, in reality, that’s the whole point of the strategy – the herd immunity that % of infections will grant the rest of the population come October PLUS the fact that if only 40% can get infected in those three months your peak will be lower and thus you’ll keep the death rate closer to 2% than the 10% you’ll get if the health service gets overwhelmed.
We’ll only know who was right in January 2021…. Epidemiologically I think their approach is probably right theoretically. In practice though I doubt it will work. They’ve basically given up on containment and are doing the equivalent of a controlled burn – but with humans. I wonder how the British population will react when this reality hits home. I think the Irish approach will have a much better chance of maintaining social cohesion.
It is impossible to read this thread in full anymore given other commitments. If you want a reply to a point or question could you please PM me and I’ll do my best to reply as I have time.
If you don’t like any extrapolations above then that’s fine. Feel free to state your own. But, the facts quoted (Italian triage categories etc ) are the facts, you have the right to dislike them, not pretend they don’t exist.
The great news is we can avoid the Italian situation and the coming Spanish and American situation ( and, sadly, probably the coming British situation given their choices ) by dint of the government actions and each of us doing social isolation and all the hygiene advice as much as possible. So, bizarelly given the news, I think things are looking up for the first time in 3 weeks. I'm certainly a lot more optimistic now.
^ How certain would you have to be to take a unique approach to this crisis? Even if you were 95%+ sure, I still don't think it makes sense. Along the lines of the Keynes quote about failing conventionally.
Thousands of families are going to blame the loss of loves ones on Dominic Cummings and a fucking nudge unit.
Sister had her holiday to the Canaries cancelled today (she was still going to go on Monday). The gym I go to is closing for the rest of the month, so getting 2 weeks refunded.
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