Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Raoul Duke III]

What if they do make it work although most of us think not
How would you feel

If they make 'it' work (by which I think we mean stop the Irish banks only from being subject to the laws around DTAs and get them to start paying a whack of tax. Without causing fright to FDI.), then great. I'd feel good about it.

I don't think it's a circle that can be squared though and ultimately we have to protect FDI at all costs. Why do you think that Apple 13bn is still sitiing on deposit?!

[Theresa]

My boss mentioned to me yesterday that Krugman has relatively recently advocated for an increase in the effective corporate tax in Ireland.
He suggested something to the effect of; given Brexit, our skilled workforce and company tenure in Ireland, the juggernauts would be willing to absorb a certain increase as it would be more beneficial than moving assets abroad.

I'll ask him where he saw it as I don't know the details, perhaps it was mentioned at Kilkenomics but interesting nonetheless.

I actually don't believe a modest tax increase, given where we are, scares anyone away from coming, or moves anyone away from here.

I think an unstable policy around taxation, and business, in general is more likely to be a deal breaker.

A concrete and reasonable plan for both a tax increase and the next 5-10 years of "business in Ireland" is enough to let juggernauts plan and be confident in their decisions.

Insecurity is a bigger scare away factor than the simple rate setting imo

[hotspur]

I once left the apartment in stillorgan at 2:30pm for a 3pm flight to New York.

1:50 in...

https://youtu.be/Ed-i40w7M_Y?t=112

[Raoul Duke III]

I actually don't believe a modest tax increase, given where we are, scares anyone away from coming, or moves anyone away from here.

I think an unstable policy around taxation, and business, in general is more likely to be a deal breaker.

A concrete and reasonable plan for both a tax increase and the next 5-10 years of "business in Ireland" is enough to let juggernauts plan and be confident in their decisions.

Insecurity is a bigger scare away factor than the simple rate setting imo

We don't have a 'concrete and reasonable' plan though.

We now suddenly have a vacumn where the old certainties around the business environment may not hold...nobody knows.

And I wouldn't be sanguine about the impact of tax increases. Big corporations employ very smart people to minimise their tax liability - the calculations they base location decisions on can hinge on very fine margins.

[NewApproach]

No, I made the flight. . The clue is my flight wasn’t to JFK it was Teterboro.

MBN

[DeadParrot]

I set a trap last night. Put a lump of peanut butter on it. Trap ended up about 15 feet away with no rat on it. Wasn't the wind either.

I'd struggle scooping up a brown bread one, nevermind running after a live one. Ugh, skin crawling at the thought of it.

You could trade a dead rat and a string to swing it with for someone to whitewash the decking

[Solksjaer!]

Time to drag this old joke out again .

SPOILER

Arlene Foster gets accidentally cyrogenically frozen for 50 years. When she wakes up, the first question from her big, angry mouth is "What the hell happened?".
Her doctor comes over and says "Good afternoon Mrs Foster. You have been cryogenically frozen for 50 years, and I have good news and bad news for you." To which Arlene replies "Whats the bad news?" "Well," says the doc, "Ireland invaded England 25 years ago, Gerry Adams is Prime Minister, and Mary McAleese has been crowned Queen." "Mother o'God!" cries Arlene. "Whats the GOOD news?" "Rangers beat Celtic last night" says her doc, with a grin. Arlene sits back and smiles. "What was the score?" Her doc turns to her and says "Three goals and four points to one goal and one point....

[Theresa]

We don't have a 'concrete and reasonable' plan though.

We now suddenly have a vacumn where the old certainties around the business environment may not hold...nobody knows.

And I wouldn't be sanguine about the impact of tax increases. Big corporations employ very smart people to minimise their tax liability - the calculations they base location decisions on can hinge on very fine margins.

What % tax increase do you think gets people moving?

1? 5? 10?

[DeadParrot]

What % tax increase do you think gets people moving?

1? 5? 10?

moving or stagnating.
Would an increase stifle future investment and let current enterprises finish their lifecycle?

[Guest]

FF/SF/Green drifting, FF/FG/Green shortening. As you were, nothing to see here.

[Raoul Duke III]

What % tax increase do you think gets people moving?

1? 5? 10?

No idea. As DP says, it's also about the impact of potential investment lost.

If we want to target an increase in revenue over and above the natural increase from increased economic activity, then I suggest we should not target the sector that is (a) mobile and (b), what our entire economic model is predicated on.

Property tax needs to be implemented properly, like every other country. Low earners need to start paying some tax on income. Jack up inheritance tax if you want to be seen to soak the rich.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Raoul Duke III]

You just can't run public services correctly without everyone paying tax.

Not according to SF....

[Dice75]

FF/SF/Green drifting, FF/FG/Green shortening. As you were, nothing to see here.

Think I'll turn off the wifi for a month if B goes ahead. Couldn't be dealing with the uproar.

[Theresa]

No idea. As DP says, it's also about the impact of potential investment lost.

If we want to target an increase in revenue over and above the natural increase from increased economic activity, then I suggest we should not target the sector that is (a) mobile and (b), what our entire economic model is predicated on.

Property tax needs to be implemented properly, like every other country. Low earners need to start paying some tax on income. Jack up inheritance tax if you want to be seen to soak the rich.

I just don't agree any sector is 'mobile'. I think the ease of mobility is overstated, and the costs understated.

It's all lobbying noise to a degree.

[Raoul Duke III]

I just don't agree any sector is 'mobile'. I think the ease of mobility is overstated, and the costs understated.

It's all lobbying noise to a degree.

Mobility is very much a phenomenon. Remember a little company down in Limerick called Dell?
Or indeed, to zoom out from our little isle, Venezuela. Used to be a pretty well-off place.

And yes, of course everyone lobbies. The best lobbyists of all being the PS unions!

[Theresa]

Mobility is very much a phenomenon. Remember a little company down in Limerick called Dell?
Or indeed, to zoom out from our little isle, Venezuela. Used to be a pretty well-off place.

And yes, of course everyone lobbies. The best lobbyists of all being the PS unions!

Surely you can agree the dell exodus was much different circumstances. And we didn't perish. Firstly, it was in 2009. I dont disagree mobility is a thing, I disagree its as easy as people say it is.
For god sake, I was waiting for the Venezuela comparisons given your thoughts on Sinn Fein. We'd have to make 50 years of awful awful decisions to come even close.

It's all noise. There is absolutely a place for higher taxes and the same trajectory we are currently on. Anything else is fear mongering or lobbying, or a convenient parcel of both.

Two things I'd love to see our government do though are:
1.Figure out how to build a prosperous second city.
2. Invest heavily in making Ireland the gateway to Europe for Chinese trade, it already can be for America and Canada given obvious advantages but if we can shore up China, we will be in a serious beneficial position.

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[Strewelpeter]

How does this work for the competitiveness of the businesses who have to pay the artificially inflated wages

I have a plan for that. As you can't actually introduce a tax on low earners. Instead my plan is that you mandate a 6% increase in the minimum wage per year for 5 years and at the same time say that tax on the minimum wage will increase (from 0%) by 2% a year at the same time.

In five years time you have a 10% minimum income tax rate and no real sense of loss, as what people would be seeing is a 4% pay increase every year.

There wouldn't be an increase for higher rate taxpayers as you'd adjust those tax rates to balance out also paying the new lower rate of tax.

Think thats a decent way of doing it without making the loss so evident and to get to the point where everyone pays tax. You just can't run public services correctly without everyone paying tax.

[Strewelpeter]

I see one of the heros that Cullinane was cheering on the other night has been charged with the cowardly murder of Lyra McKee today.

Up The PSNI , fuck the Republican Army and all its fellow travellers.

[Strewelpeter]

We'd have to make 50 years of awful awful decisions to come even close.

Less than ten years ago we were within weeks of making decisions on whether to close hospitals or schools.

That was directly caused by a lack of prudence in an booming economy with spending a fraction of what SF Manifesto promises.

But yeah it couldn't happen again.

[premierstone]

I see one of the heros that Cullinane was cheering on the other night has been charged with the cowardly murder of Lyra McKee today.



Up The PSNI , fuck the Republican Army and all its fellow travellers.

I think you are very confused, maybe have a wee nap!

Either that or you are actually a moron??

[Theresa]

Raoul's broader point that we need to diversify away from corp tax not concentrate on it more is the most important point. The national budget crisis was largely caused by stamp duty falling to zero. Could easily happen with corp tax also - that stuff could vanish overnight. So its an awful idea to focus on it even more. Obvious things like wealth taxes - property tax - are the clear way to diversify away. It just makes no sense that SF wouldn't want that. Would easily raise €2bn a year if done at the right level versus an absolute pittance now. Then gets ringfenced for developing local communities and making them nice places to live.

I have no issue with diversifying the tax base, but to say we shouldn't tax profit (after all... it profit is the truest form of 'wealth' because we risk losing the 'juggernauts' its disingenuous. We can do both)
I think doing both is the prudent, and likely more palatable thing.

Reminds me of a story of a local tech company here, they hired a "pricing" expert to help them understand their strategy and how they could realize revenue.

This geniuses idea?

Double your prices. If you lose less than half your customers, you make more money.

So they did.

They lost 10% of their customers.

Ireland is similar in that, the alternatives to us in terms of ease of business regulatory environment, FDI grants and English speaking... are basically zero. Thats leverage we should use.

Less than ten years ago we were within weeks of making decisions on whether to close hospitals or schools.

That was directly caused by a lack of prudence in an booming economy with spending a fraction of what SF Manifesto promises.

But yeah it couldn't happen again.

Venezuela is not Ireland. Comparisons are almost Trumpian in their disingenuousness.

[Strewelpeter]

Good programme on BBC4 now about the reality of the Sinn Fein IRA

[Strewelpeter]

Venezuela is not Ireland. Comparisons are almost Trumpian in their disingenuousness.

We were actually bankrupt within the last decade how do you think that would have played out if we had put Boyd Barrett and Adams in power the?


I've been in many extremely poor countries and I'm no economist but it always strikes me that when you look at the way civil society works here or there the principal difference between us and them is the taxes we pay.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[premierstone]

Good programme on BBC4 now about the reality of the Sinn Fein IRA

That's what you took from that programme? Not the fact that it was set against one of the greatest miscarriages of justice of the 20th century? And I must have missed the Sinn Fein connection??

[Theresa]

We were actually bankrupt within the last decade how do you think that would have played out if we had put Boyd Barrett and Adams in power the?


I've been in many extremely poor countries and I'm no economist but it always strikes me that when you look at the way civil society works here or there the principal difference between us and them is the taxes we pay.

I'm not sure we are disagreeing tbh.

My main point is, we have an opportunity and leverage given government AND economic climate to implement some reasonable and palatable tax increases, and we shouldn't rule out Corporate tax because of the spectre of hyper mobility.

[premierstone]

We were actually bankrupt within the last decade how do you think that would have played out if we had put Boyd Barrett and Adams in power the?





I've been in many extremely poor countries and I'm no economist but it always strikes me that when you look at the way civil society works here or there the principal difference between us and them is the taxes we pay.

Ever ask yourself how exactly we ended up bankrupt or who was steering the ship at the time???

[Strewelpeter]

I'm not sure we are disagreeing tbh.

My main point is, we have an opportunity and leverage given government AND economic climate to implement some reasonable and palatable tax increases, and we shouldn't rule out Corporate tax because of the spectre of hyper mobility.

I'm inclined to agree with you about getting some increases in but I we should tread very carefully because especially in IT and services there really is hyper mobility and the Brits will be in desperate competition for everything we have.

That's what you took from that programme? Not the fact that it was set against one of the greatest miscarriages of justice of the 20th century?

Absolutely and as miscarriages of justice of the 20th century no one in their right minds could place them towards the top of any list national or international. Had the IRA not been such absolute cowards they could have had them cleared but chose to use them as a propaganda tool.

Rewind 10 minutes from the piece on their awful treatment and unjust years of imprisonment to the mother who has her two children slaughtered by comrades of Ellis and Cullinane.

[Strewelpeter]

Ever ask yourself how exactly we ended up bankrupt or who was steering the ship at the time???

As I said, a lack of fiscal prudence and inflated spending at a time of full employment along the lines of what SF PBP are planning now.

[balfejohn]

Well the whole thing is a bit of a trick.

First you need to accept that no single party that ever has or ever will exist in Ireland will be able to just simply tax minimum wage workers.

So there needs to be something behavioural.

Actually this idea is from Richard Thaler - who did something similar with encouraging people to save in the future. He encouraged them to sign up to savings contracts where a portion of their future pay increases would go automatically into a savings account. Result was a massive increase in savings as people didn't feel any loss. Thats why any tax increase would need to be couched within an overall pay increase.

For businesses. Its only really retail that pays minimum wage, so I guess they generally work out how to lower costs and pass on some costs to customers. It's not really a big deal and worth it for everyone in society to be on a living wage and the state to have a stable income source to fund services (which itself would increase employment).

Most hotels live off staff on the minimum wage as well as the retail sector

[Strewelpeter]

moving or stagnating.
Would an increase stifle future investment and let current enterprises finish their lifecycle?

Did ye get sorted with a ward in Jamses?

[Raoul Duke III]

Well this is a new one.

Our dog (ancient West Highland Terrier) literally parked herself right beside the fire earlier. Myself and Mrs DIII sitting on the sofa listening to some child stammer out their Irish homework when Mrs DIII suddenly screams 'the dog is on fire!'. Which she most assuredly was, her coat was ablaze. Up leaps Mrs DIII with a copy of the Irish textbook with it and bates the dog a few times with the flame mercifully going out immediately. Nice smell of singed fur. Dog is none the worse and I think didn't even notice.
Screen now in place. Dog happily snoring away in front of it.

A rare case of "eh teacher, the dog didn't eat me homework but she did set it on fire".

I prefer to think that she followed the example of Thích_Quảng_Đức and self-immolated rather than face a Sinn Fein government.

[Raoul Duke III]

As I said, a lack of fiscal prudence and inflated spending at a time of full employment along the lines of what SF PBP are planning now.

You forgot a suicidally narrow tax base.

[premierstone]

I'm inclined to agree with you about getting some increases in but I we should tread very carefully because especially in IT and services there really is hyper mobility and the Brits will be in desperate competition for everything we have.





Absolutely and as miscarriages of justice of the 20th century no one in their right minds could place them towards the top of any list national or international. Had the IRA not been such absolute cowards they could have had them cleared but chose to use them as a propaganda tool.



Rewind 10 minutes from the piece on their awful treatment and unjust years of imprisonment to the mother who has her two children slaughtered by comrades of Ellis and Cullinane.

A situation where an entire judicial system knowingly framed innocent people doesn't come close to topping a national list of miscarriages of justice? Wow, take of the anti Republican blinkers and list me 5 bigger national miscarriages in the 20th century?

[premierstone]

As I said, a lack of fiscal prudence and inflated spending at a time of full employment along the lines of what SF PBP are planning now.

And who oversaw this clusterfuck?

Who exactly do you want in government?

[Theresa]

In true old white man fashion, I have just finished a script that runs for me every Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday and books my tee times for me at my golf course as soon as the tee sheet opens.

Summer sorted.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[Strewelpeter]

A situation where an entire judicial system knowingly framed innocent people doesn't come close to topping a national list of miscarriages of justice? Wow, take of the anti Republican blinkers and list me 5 bigger national miscarriages in the 20th century?

Off the top of my head Timothy Evans , Mohamad Matan and Derek Bentley are three innocent people I can think of who were executed for crimes the police and judiciary knew full well they didn't commit.
If I remember correctly the lads tried in the Carl Bridgewater case got a far worse deal then the Birmingham or Guilford people.

British justice is riddled with terrible stories.

Just because a story gets constant headlines does not make it a greater miscarriage than people who were executed, in fact cases having the massive public support must mitigate the suffering somewhat.

FTR I still think that Denham's appalling vista speech in the Birmingham 6 appeal is a low point in British judicial history.

[Strewelpeter]

And who oversaw this clusterfuck?

Who exactly do you want in government?

At this point I'd settle for any government that keeps Pascal Donohue in finance.
I think the Greens should be at the center of any new program

[Lao Lao]

Two things I'd love to see our government do though are:
1.Figure out how to build a prosperous second city.
2. Invest heavily in making Ireland the gateway to Europe for Chinese trade, it already can be for America and Canada given obvious advantages but if we can shore up China, we will be in a serious beneficial position.

Do you mean physical trade as in goods in/out?

If so, that's never going to happen no matter how much investment is made.

If you mean something else, ignore the above

[DeadParrot]

Did ye get sorted with a ward in Jamses?

Last night yeah.
I least I don't have worry about him wandering the halls now.

[DeadParrot]

Is that a Tom Sawyer thing or something like that?!

Bringing a little literary culture to the thread is all.

Though tbh, I'm 90% sure my mental association with the phrase is a hannibal lector quote rather than the actual source material

[Theresa]

Do you mean physical trade as in goods in/out?

If so, that's never going to happen no matter how much investment is made.

If you mean something else, ignore the above

Just the man I was hoping would respond. I guess I mean anyway possible become the de facto gateway to Europe for all trade or business. Even start with tourism. Ireland not being part of Schengen means Chinese tourists have an extra hurdle to jump to visit.

Is it the obvious geographic reasons why you know it’ll never happen from a physical goods perspective?

[ComradeCollie]

I was on (low doses of) Xanax and Valium for about two months and can safely say that the reason you get addicted to them is that they are fucking amazing. Can't remember which one is which but one gives you a long steady feeling of lovely calm while the other is a more immediate installation of happiness. Withdrawal from high doses is meant to be worse than kicking a heroin habit.

Yeah, think the only one I was ever on was Lorazepam (Ativan). Have no memory of taking them, as according to friends I was knocking them back with whiskey in between pints at the bar. Wouldn't have taken more than a minute for a better doctor to figure out that they were not a good prescription for me.

1987 advertisement. "In a world where certainties are few...no wonder Ativan is prescribed by so many caring clinicians."

[coillcam]

Thought this was pretty cool. People still play poker here right?

https://youtu.be/GtarhjRLx30

[Solksjaer!]

Anyone here mentioned SFs historical link to the IRA. I think Mary Lou should have her real voice dubbed as a protest . Also divorce abortion and gay marriage should be banned. Also bring back live at 3 and Bosco.

[Strewelpeter]

If only Corbyn had been half this incisive on Brexit.

Decent bit of trolling

[Goodluck2me]

I just don't agree any sector is 'mobile'. I think the ease of mobility is overstated, and the costs understated.

It's all lobbying noise to a degree.

Aircraft leasing is a good example, if the tax rate changed you’d lose significant tax income. Companies with $40bn balance sheets with only 200 staff wouldn’t be hard to shift. That’s >$1bn of corporate tax income per annum.

Surely you can agree the dell exodus was much different circumstances. And we didn't perish. Firstly, it was in 2009. I dont disagree mobility is a thing, I disagree its as easy as people say it is.
For god sake, I was waiting for the Venezuela comparisons given your thoughts on Sinn Fein. We'd have to make 50 years of awful awful decisions to come even close.

It's all noise. There is absolutely a place for higher taxes and the same trajectory we are currently on. Anything else is fear mongering or lobbying, or a convenient parcel of both.

Two things I'd love to see our government do though are:
1.Figure out how to build a prosperous second city.
2. Invest heavily in making Ireland the gateway to Europe for Chinese trade, it already can be for America and Canada given obvious advantages but if we can shore up China, we will be in a serious beneficial position.

What we never seem to speak about is efficiency though, it’s always raise taxes and hope for better outcomes. We should be doing more with what we already spend. Health is a great example.

I have no issue with diversifying the tax base, but to say we shouldn't tax profit (after all... it profit is the truest form of 'wealth' because we risk losing the 'juggernauts' its disingenuous. We can do both)
I think doing both is the prudent, and likely more palatable thing.

Reminds me of a story of a local tech company here, they hired a "pricing" expert to help them understand their strategy and how they could realize revenue.

This geniuses idea?

Double your prices. If you lose less than half your customers, you make more money.

So they did.

They lost 10% of their customers.

Ireland is similar in that, the alternatives to us in terms of ease of business regulatory environment, FDI grants and English speaking... are basically zero. Thats leverage we should use.




Venezuela is not Ireland. Comparisons are almost Trumpian in their disingenuousness.

No one is arguing we can’t tax profit, it’s whats a “fair” or correct amount to tax it. We do very well out of 12.5%.

Also, In the above scenario do you think they doubled them again and only lost 10%?

[Raoul Duke III]

No one is arguing we can’t tax profit, it’s whats a “fair” or correct amount to tax it. We do very well out of 12.5%.

Also, In the above scenario do you think they doubled them again and only lost 10%?

12.5% of a lot is clearly superior to 20% of a little....

the tax base needs broadening, it's one of the first things the troika said when they came in here and they were right. It's still as true today as it was then.

[Keane]

It's why FG promising to get rid of the USC is such a shit policy amirite!?

[Guest]

Anyone here mentioned SFs historical link to the IRA. I think Mary Lou should have her real voice dubbed as a protest . Also divorce abortion and gay marriage should be banned. Also bring back live at 3 and Bosco.

If she brings back School Around the Corner, she can have my vote.

On a separate note, FA has a great set of articles on US military spending with pros & cons of reducing the budget and bringing soldiers back.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/come-home-america

I'm working my way through them at the minute but definitely worth a look:

A Gallup poll taken in 2019 found that 25 percent of them think the United States spends too little on its military, 29 percent believe it spends too much, and 43 percent think it is spending about the right amount—a remarkable degree of incoherence for politicians trying to interpret the public’s will.

[Raoul Duke III]

It's why FG promising to get rid of the USC is such a shit policy amirite!?

Nuanced. Forget about USC in particular and just think of income tax as 'the % of my pay that gets taken away as PAYE + USC + PRSI'

So for Ireland in the year 2020, it looks like this:

[Goodluck2me]

12.5% of a lot is clearly superior to 20% of a little....

the tax base needs broadening, it's one of the first things the troika said when they came in here and they were right. It's still as true today as it was then.

I completely agree, we don’t build anything of note here. Our IT skill base is strong but quite replicable, and I think the international tax changes coming down the tracks will be very good for us. No point upsetting the apple tart now, so to speak.

[Goodluck2me]

Nuanced. Forget about USC in particular and just think of income tax as 'the % of my pay that gets taken away as PAYE + USC + PRSI'

So for Ireland in the year 2020, it looks like this:

It’s much harder to avoid USC though, moving income tax down 1% wouldn’t be as bad as moving USC down 1%.

[Strewelpeter]

I'm working my way through them at the minute but definitely worth a look:

A Gallup poll taken in 2019 found that 25 percent of them think the United States spends too little on its military, 29 percent believe it spends too much, and 43 percent think it is spending about the right amount—a remarkable degree of incoherence for politicians trying to interpret the public’s will.

One thing people misunderstand about the US is that they have the military instead of or in place of of a social welfare system.