Bad Beat/Moaning/Venting - pray for Lazare

[Denny Crane]

Fuck, its nearly over.

Denny, how are you feeling?

Fuck whoever leaked that "Grab em" video of Trump anyway

Not great. Had lumped on a perceived no-hoper nine months ago and then switched horses just at the elbow. Nearly a 100k mistake.

Looking forward to the congratulations and expected pint buying to roll in

On the positive side, now get to test my prediction that Trump will be no where near as bad as everyone expects.

[pokerhand]

Am I reading this right... clinton out to 5/1?

[TheDrunkenOne]

Homer inspires America obviously.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLSy8Tl2bjs

[Raoul Duke III]

Am I reading this right... clinton out to 5/1?

Pretty much looks like no way back now.

[horatio1]

While money is lovely and all Denny and no matter what happens now you must take a lot of satisfaction from even thinking this could happen so far out. Unbelievable.

[CHDad]

Not great. Had lumped on a perceived no-hoper nine months ago and then switched horses just at the elbow. Nearly a 100k mistake.

Looking forward to the congratulations and expected pint buying to roll in

On the positive side, now get to test my prediction that Trump will be no where near as bad as everyone expects.

He wont be as bad as expected but imagine how bad I will feel when he is shot dead and nobody laid odds. Its only 8 months away.

[Raoul Duke III]

Right, fuck this.

[CHDad]

Hillary went 6 > 3.5> 4.6 in last 5 mins.

Reactions.

[Denny Crane]

Pretty much looks like no way back now.

It's funny how Trump at 1.3 seems so much more certain than Clinton at 1.3

[Theresa]

Hang on... doesn't Clinton have California. So it can't be over yet.

[Lazare]

As much as this is disgusting, it's sweetened a little by the thought of SP waking up to it.

[oleras]

Need to buy myself one of these, someone might need a wall built soon.

[Denny Crane]

Hillary went 6 > 3.5> 4.6 in last 5 mins.

Reactions.

If Clinton does pull back, 95% of people will have no idea what they just slept though.

[Guest]

I think it could be the biggest market in the exchanges history too. Pretty sure Brexit was beforehand.

[Denny Crane]

What was BF before tonight? 100m?

[pokerhand]

Hillary went 6 > 3.5> 4.6 in last 5 mins.

Reactions.

8/1 now.

[CHDad]

11/1

Hopefully the bookies take a massive hit again the misleading cunts.

[Guest]

As much as this is disgusting, it's sweetened a little by the thought of SP waking up to it.

I'm looking forward to seeing John Oliver and Stewart's smug self satisfied smiles get wiped off their faces

[Guest]

What was BF before tonight? 100m?

Breixit peaked at 150m. From what I was told in there, it was the biggest

[pokerhand]

11/1

Hopefully the bookies take a massive hit again the misleading cunts.

12/1

[pokerhand]

20/1.

[TheDrunkenOne]

Trump 1/1000. Over now for sure. Time to declare and go to bed please

[Denny Crane]

[oleras]

Fox predicts wins in FL(19)NC(15) and OH(20)....that will get him pretty damn close.

[Mellor]

Hang on... doesn't Clinton have California. So it can't be over yet.

The current forecast are based on the presumption that Clinton takes California.
Currently tied. But the NY Times is predicting 305 to 233

[Guest]

Great night for Rudy giuliani too, came across as utterly unhinged anytime I've seen him this campaign. One to watch

[Lord Sir Banter]

The humane thing is probably for one of us to hold a pillow over strewelpeters head tonight.

[TheDrunkenOne]

Mexican Peso has fell off the charts to an all time low.

[CHDad]

USA has knocked it out of the park when it comes to proving they are dumb people.

That was before either candidate got the nomination.

Now they have voted in a cunt who wouldnt be known if it wasnt for reality TV.

What goes around, comes around. lol USA, suffer.

[Guest]

Another positive is it's great to see stats nerds absolutely blow it again, hopefully it might halt their quest to ruin sports. There's still some mystery

[Mellor]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Chmy20pXIAAtLKY.jpg

TBF, those headlines are what the writer wants people to believe, rather than what he necessarily believes.

[Lord Sir Banter]

Wolf Blitzer just barking orders at his co-host on CNN. Salty AF.

[Denny Crane]

Big lead for President-Elect Clinton

Does she go from President Elect to possible inmate?

[Lord Sir Banter]

inm8

[The Situation]

Funny in Brexit and this election the working classes have changed allegiances to vote for the more conservative option.

[CHDad]

He better stick hillary in jail and build a wall.

[oleras]

Next G7(8) meeting will be totes awk.

[Denny Crane]

The smart money is often not the group money. Guys who make their living doing wagers understand reality better than political idiots.

It was an interesting study in groupthink. I post a lot about that, but people don' listen. And if they were so sure and so wrong about this - what else do they misjudge? She was never, ever 95% or even 80% let alone 99%. They were unhinged - smart people were making a basic philosophical error of overvaluing what they know vs what they don't. I mean it was crystal clear the error bars were wide here. This kind of error happens everywhere. Think of how many smart people misjudged something as simple and obvious as error bars in this situation. Something worth remembering.

The good news is that they also badly misunderstand Trump, mainly because the insane left wing media - with the same groupthink as the politics forum - has made a monster of him. The evidence is that he's actually a decent man with a good heart and fantastic business skills. If he wins, he'll be an excellent president and a unifier. Clinton was the horror disaster candidate. Seriously, how well do you think the people who've made a religion/Hitler Youth level of group-monstering Trump, turning him into Emmanuel Goldstein, are understanding the mind of a someone who's lived a very successful life? He has long time good friends that think the world of him. He has a wonderful family which should tell you a lot. He's called "cerebral", and "very different to public face" in private by many people, including smart left wing people. He'll be great for the US and the world. You've bought the bull**** just like you bought the bull**** that this was locked up for Clinton at 99%. People can't think.

Some optimism from 2p2

[CHDad]

Some optimism from 2p2

https://www.iamsosmart.com

[Denny Crane]

Funny in Brexit and this election the working classes have changed allegiances to vote for the more conservative option.

Voted for change

[Denny Crane]

TBF, those headlines are what the writer wants people to believe, rather than what he necessarily believes.

They're from 538

[ComradeCollie]

Ah holey motheroffuck. Lol polls forever.

[TheDrunkenOne]

Good night looking forward to tmw

[Mellor]

They're from 538

I'm aware. Can see Silvers name throughout.
But that doesn't mean they are the 100% honest opinions, why would it.
Am I missing something?

[Mellor]

I just realized I placed a bet on turnout. Anywhere that I can get a sweat on that?

[The Situation]

I just realized I placed a bet on turnout. Anywhere that I can get a sweat on that?

BF have a market, and 62%-66% seems to be fav, but not overwhelming.

[Denny Crane]

I'm aware. Can see Silvers name throughout.
But that doesn't mean they are the 100% honest opinions, why would it.
Am I missing something?

I think so. They were based off their models and predictions.

[Lord Sir Banter]

'Michigan may decide'. No they are just slow at counting.

[Lord Sir Banter]

Kay Burley melting down on sky news.

[oleras]

PA gone to Trump seemingly.

edit:back and forth it seems

[Mellor]

BF have a market, and 62%-66% seems to be fav, but not overwhelming.

I'm on 58-62%
No idea what possessed me to back it.

I think so. They were based off their models and predictions.

But it's not like they are presenting the raw data.
People can use models and predictions to serve an agenda. Maybe I'm too cynical

[oleras]

.

JUST IN: Californians voted to legalize marijuana for recreational use, and by a large margin, too: 56 percent to 44 percent.

[Denny Crane]

I'm on 58-62%
No idea what possessed me to back it.


But it's not like they are presenting the raw data.
People can use models and predictions to serve an agenda. Maybe I'm too cynical

I'm not sure you get what the sites about, they're not Katie Hopkins

[AndyFatBastard]

Wtf

[Lord Sir Banter]

The 'who would you rather go for a beer with' metric wins yet again.

Trump > Hillary
Obama > McCain
Obama > Kerry
Bush Jr > Gore
Clinton > Dole
Clinton > Bush Snr.

[Guest]

Reflects badly on Obama and the celebrityies, maybe actors will stfu about politics now. Has a sitting prez ever campaigned as much for his successor?

[Mellor]

I'm not sure you get what the sites about, they're not Katie Hopkins

TBH I've looked at very little of the article on the 538, compared to most around here at least. And I'm not sure who Katie Hopkins is either.

But the headlines are clearly drama'd up for the masses. The "Nickleback of GOP nominations"...

Silver: "Trump has a 5% chance"
Didn't he'd say it was 50/50 at one point too?

[Denny Crane]

Reflects badly on Obama and the celebrityies, maybe actors will stfu about politics now. Has a sitting prez ever campaigned as much for his successor?

I'm just curious now what happens all the people that said they'd leave

[Theresa]

I'm just curious now what happens all the people that said they'd leave

Hope the fuck they don't plan on coming here. At least til my PR is decided.

[Lord Sir Banter]

Still waiting on Ray Darcy to leave. People stating falsely that they'll leave a country if 'x' wins only illustrates how shrill they are.