Originally posted by Denny Crane
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Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - BabyforV
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Just as I got to my local polling station, there's a mini-bus pulling away with about 15 ole biddies in it. Cunts probably haven't been able to vote in years, and now they are being driven to the polling station. Local parish priest doing his good deed for the day, no doubt.
Hope they all tricked him and voted yes!
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostI'd be worried about the Donegal betLast edited by Denny Crane; 22-05-15, 16:40.
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Originally posted by Denny Crane View PostNo bet on turnout; on unders @ 66.5 and 68.5. Have a range of constituencies to vote no for small money, but half of my betting total is on Donegal so disaster if that doesn't come home (better be no fecking students making that journey back).
Although, not the worst way to lose money tbh.
Thought I was buying money so no hedge"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostI'd be worried about the Donegal betOriginally posted by Denny Crane View PostWhy? It's such a huge outlier in nearly every referendum result. (low turnout probably bodes well too, none of those young enthusiastic people up early to vote)
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Originally posted by KevIRL View PostTomorrow morning exit poll result"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson
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Might drive up to Donegal to vote no
Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.
Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.
Any ideas?
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Originally posted by digiman View PostMight drive up to Donegal to vote no
Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.May you live in interesting times!
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Originally posted by digiman View PostMight drive up to Donegal to vote no
Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.
Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.
Any ideas?
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Originally posted by digiman View PostMight drive up to Donegal to vote no
Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.
Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.
Any ideas?
Surely any exit polls would be skewed towards the yes side?
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Originally posted by digiman View PostMight drive up to Donegal to vote no
Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.
Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.
Any ideas?Originally posted by bp_me View PostCall a broker. I use simply insure and find them good enough.
Maybe the ignition thing with aviva would apply here to be of some use? http://www.aviva.ie/online/driving/ignition/qualify/
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Originally posted by CHD View PostIs the Skype logo underneath peoples avatars showing up as a broken link for anyone else? It is annoying, does not please my eyes.
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I was looking out at my polling station and there was no bible visible. Presume it was hidden away which is proper order imo.
It was a youngish guy behind the desk (fwiw I'd say about 4/7 to be gay) and as he was handing me the two ballot papers, says "this is the 'equality' one and that is the presidential one". Curious way to put it, no? I was a clear yes so made no odds to me but could be interpreted as influencing on the fence voters imo. I'd be sure it's not correct procedure anyhow...
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Originally posted by digiman View PostMight drive up to Donegal to vote no
Anybody got any advice for car insurance? As I was out of the country for 3 years my old no claims bonus is now gone and I'm basically been treated as a 17 year old trying to get insured on a 2.0 petrol car.
Have rang no nonsense, fbd and Allianz and none of them would even quote me. Spoke to chill and out of 14 companies only one would insure me, fully comp was €4762, asked him to see what it would have cost if I had 3 years NCB and price was 1500. Had 6 years NCB before I left, such an unfair system.
Any ideas?
On a related note, the broker is a friend of mine and I was talking to him after and he said car insurance is going to go up around 25% in the next few years. There's been a price war the last while and the end result was basically that no one was making money, so expect your quotes next year to go up!
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Guest
Read a great quote re: people coming home to vote.
"They're only here for the backslapping hashtag"
Beautiful cynicism right there.
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Guest
Also I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference. I spent the morning in search of some studies on the matter and the best I could do was to find a simulation of a 2 candidate election with a register of 5 million where the true balance was at 50.1 vs 49.9 and they ran a simulation by picking random turnouts on a Poisson distribution.
Any single vote in that case had a 2 x 10^-9 chance of being the casting one. The best argument I heard for voting was so that one could look their gay friends in the face and tell them they went out and supported them, but I'd rather give them a probability lesson.
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Originally posted by CHD View PostIs the Skype logo underneath peoples avatars showing up as a broken link for anyone else? It is annoying, does not please my eyes.
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Originally posted by zuutroy View PostAlso I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference.
Cast mine about 7.30pm. Didn't seem any busier than usual, and plenty of old folk barely able to walk ( really hoping they were yes voters too).Gone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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Originally posted by zuutroy View PostAlso I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference. I spent the morning in search of some studies on the matter and the best I could do was to find a simulation of a 2 candidate election with a register of 5 million where the true balance was at 50.1 vs 49.9 and they ran a simulation by picking random turnouts on a Poisson distribution.
Any single vote in that case had a 2 x 10^-9 chance of being the casting one. The best argument I heard for voting was so that one could look their gay friends in the face and tell them they went out and supported them, but I'd rather give them a probability lesson.
that kid you met said you have a 'big car'. Seemed impressed.
Mrs DIII has fucked off to Prague for the weekend. Sick life. 6 hours into full-time parenting and I'm wrecked, no idea how fellow single parents manage it,"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Postoi stalker
that kid you met said you have a 'big car'. Seemed impressed.
Mrs DIII has fucked off to Prague for the weekend. Sick life. 6 hours into full-time parenting and I'm wrecked, no idea how fellow single parents manage it,
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Postjust had a guy in giving me a quote for one of these lads. Quite energised to do this now - massive man cave potential imo (although will no doubt be taken over by kids in due course )
SPOILERI hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Originally posted by zuutroy View PostAlso I'm surprised the intensely rational populous of IPB bother voting with the negligible chance of it making any difference. I spent the morning in search of some studies on the matter and the best I could do was to find a simulation of a 2 candidate election with a register of 5 million where the true balance was at 50.1 vs 49.9 and they ran a simulation by picking random turnouts on a Poisson distribution.
Any single vote in that case had a 2 x 10^-9 chance of being the casting one. The best argument I heard for voting was so that one could look their gay friends in the face and tell them they went out and supported them, but I'd rather give them a probability lesson.
Yea, I enjoyed the walk though. I'd be more inclined to not bother if peoples feels weren't on the line.
I've never voted in a general election, even though your vote has a higher chance of impacting.
May need some side bets to garner an interest in general politics. Does seem to be solid ents for those that are.Last edited by Lord Sir Banter; 22-05-15, 22:31.X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!
$ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $
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Originally posted by CHD View PostWould you use that turn of phrase in a conversation?
do you say 'mate' all the time, nothing I detest more than being called mate (think it goes back to living in Oz where it gets used aggressively)"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Postprobably not, you got me.
do you say 'mate' all the time, nothing I detest more than being called mate (think it goes back to living in Oz where it gets used aggressively)
Don't think I use anything, probably nicknames or something. I'll listen to myself next time I am drunk. Pain.
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Originally posted by LuckyLloyd View PostAul Denny really has us all in his pockets, grand fella so he is.Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View PostOh dear that the law can't be broken to talk about his personal affairs. Never mind that if it had gone through the courts we would all have lost privacy protection.Originally posted by Kayroo View PostHitch I have to say I am deeply and painfully uneasy with that decision re: O'BrienGone full 'Glinner' since June 2022.
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m8 is the uber clutch totes friendly way of saying mate m8X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!
$ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $
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Originally posted by Emmet View PostLutton's sily (and harsh) penalty was the loss maker unfortunately.‘IF YOU had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.” Genghis Khan
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Originally posted by mdoug View PostThere literally was not a single person going in/out of my polling station the 4 times I walked past so was a bit anxious about the overs bet.
Thanks for the reassurance and get those votes in guys!!
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Originally posted by V for Vendetta View PostMore than that IMO. They made a lot of other mental mistakes in the second half. Kicking out on the full. Playing in wrong areas. Fucking up crucial line outs. Poor midfield play. They just don't seem to be able to stay cool when it matters most.
Matawalu's OTT reaction was a bit sickening. I'd be absolutely gutted to be an Ulster fan tonight.
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Originally posted by V for Vendetta View PostMore than that IMO. They made a lot of other mental mistakes in the second half. Kicking out on the full. Playing in wrong areas. Fucking up crucial line outs. Poor midfield play. They just don't seem to be able to stay cool when it matters most.
I hope Glasgow win it out have played some great stuff this year high tempo off loading game with the two Fijians at the heart of it.
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Originally posted by horatio1 View PostJust voted in deep rural laois . Polling clerk told me turnout 58 %. Not sure if that is good for yes or no's.
I missed the boat on the 69.5% completely so went overs for the turnout as everyone I knew was voting. Be it postal vote or returning home for the day they were all voting so overs seems silly not to bet.
Small bets then on - no donegal ne(went smallish in the end), no cyavan/monaghan(small), highest no % cyavan, highest yes % north city north.
If we are all being honest, betting makes politics and eurovision much more craic.Go big or go homeless.
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#Walker4Prez
Current market for next US president is here.
I am going to get involved on Scott Walker @ 10s or better and here is the why.
Hilary Clinton will not be the next President of the United States.- After a two-term president of one party, the electorate generally changes tack and elects in the other guys (Bush to Obama, Clinton to Bush, Eisenhower to Kennedy, Truman to Eisenhower). Reagan to Bush Snr is an outlier (but only after Jim Baker's dirty tricks team killed Dukakais - against Bush Snr's wishes and instincts).
- Her brand is toxic - people forget how divisive the Clintons are - a Hilary candidacy is a godsend to the GOP.
- She's not a winner. The only election she ever won was a safe Senate seat in NY and she managed to blow an almost-unlosable advantage against Obama in the '08 primary.
- She's a woman. I don't think America is ready for that.
- She's too old.
- Health issues.
- Bill. (although probably also her biggest asset)
- Dodgy record as Secretary of State with multiple freebie attack spots for the GOP (Benghazi, emailgate etc etc)
- She's too rich. Brand Clinton has been money-grubbing away since Bill departed the Oval Office.
Yet she will almost certainly be the Dem candidate and is currently trading around the evens mark - anyone taking this price should be carted off to Dundrum and locked in a padded cell for their own safety.
If the Republicans can put up literally anyone who can tie their own shoelaces against her, they will coast home in the electoral college.
So, who will the GOP pick? The current frontrunners are:- Jeb Bush
- Marco Rubio
- Scott Walker
and of the remaining putative candidates, there is not one that I can see being selected (unless the Tea Party lunatics take over the asylum). So forget them, they're only there for the lols.
I take Scott Walker to come out ahead of the other two chumps.
- The right combination of just-about-conservative-enough for the GOP and just-about-likeable-enough for the middle ground. He can energise the base (which Romney never did) while reaching out to the undecideds.
- Proven winner, 3 elections in 4 years in a purple state
- Excellent gubernatorial record - which has historically been a proven springboard to the White House (think Bush Jnr, Bill, Reagan, Carter)
- the right backstory
- the right age (Hilary will look ancient in comparison)
- the right religious background (mainstream enough, not too nutty)
- the right geography (Reps absolutely must scoop the midwest)
- doubt he has any skeletons rattling around in the cupboard, squeaky clean
- he really wants it imo
he's not a great speaker in the mould of an Obama but he pushes the right buttons - he'll be coached well
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
Get on before Jeb gets taken apart and it becomes a Rubio vs Walker primary. Rubio is a lightweight.
I plan to keep nibbling away at him while he's in double-digit prices with the aim of sitting on a pile of tasty vouchers after Super Tuesday. Get On. If nothing else, you will get an excellent sweat and given that he will romp it in Iowa, you can always trade out for a handy profit."We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
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