Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - It's the end of the world as we know it

[Raoul Duke III]

Give us a TR on Zagreb when you return Solks, sounds like a cool place (I have also heard the same of Belgrade, surprisingly enough given the general prickishness of Serbia).

[Strewelpeter]

[MysteryGuest]

lol Apple Vision Pro production being cut as it is bombing

when are these cunts going to realise nobody wants their gimmicky at/ve metaverse bullshit

love to see these guys incinerating cash on this

[Raoul Duke III]

A totally normal song to play on a totally normal breakfast TV show, in a totally normal country.

[hotspur]

Speaking of songs, I went into an Irish bar in Kathmandu a few days ago and what was playing? "Come out ye black and tans!"

[Silver-Tiger]

Playing Muirfield in a few hours. North Berwick tomorrow.

Would love a TR

[Raoul Duke III]

Pecker back on the stand in NYC. Oooh Errr.

Apparently too:

Today he is wearing a dark suit, a pink shirt and a dark orange tie.

Subliminal messaging?

[DeadParrot]

Just to be clear, everything I have commented on in the last few days has been in the context of Ukraine.

Gaza looks intractable as long as Hamas refuses to surrender and return hostages. And while Netanyahu is in office.

The congressional leadership in the US were quite clever in the way they separated the Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel aid into separate bills.

This is a frankly ridiculous premise. What does surrender look like and what happens to palestinian territorial land if so?
Cause if you think the IDF will simply pack up and leave, I have a bridge to sell you.
It's highly likely most of these are dead anyway, likely in israeli airstrikes. Any left are the last vestages of leverage Hamas has.

I don't know how this will be taught to our kids, history being writen by the victors and all that but it's horrifying to see this all play out at the moment.

[Raoul Duke III]

This is a frankly ridiculous premise. What does surrender look like and what happens to palestinian territorial land if so?
Cause if you think the IDF will simply pack up and leave, I have a bridge to sell you.
It's highly likely most of these are dead anyway, likely in israeli airstrikes. Any left are the last vestages of leverage Hamas has.

I don't know how this will be taught to our kids, history being writen by the victors and all that but it's horrifying to see this all play out at the moment.

What do you think Hamas should do?

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

What do you think Hamas should do?

The question people are mainly concerned with is, what should the kids do to stop being bombed and shot and starved. Are they not wearing high viz jackets, is that the problem why the Israelis seem to bomb playgrounds and food distribution centres with unerring accuracy.

[Raoul Duke III]

The question people are mainly concerned with is, what should the kids do to stop being bombed and shot and starved. Are they not wearing high viz jackets, is that the problem why the Israelis seem to bomb playgrounds and food distribution centres with unerring accuracy.

Again, what do you think Hamas should do? If they actually care about their own people.

[Goodluck2me]

Again, what do you think Hamas should do? If they actually care about their own people.

It’s hard to put into words as I simply don’t know enough about it, but I do find people’s Pro Ukraine/Israel and Pro Russia/Palestine positions very odd, when they seem to be more different than alike.

Everything you said about Ukraine mustn’t stop because Russia will repeat it with more territory sounds exactly what Palestine was doing?

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Again, what do you think Hamas should do? If they actually care about their own people.

"Should our immediate focus not be", he asks patiently, "on the people who are actually killing the kids"

[Hectorjelly]

I have a song out today, Witchi Tai To, it's a cover of a by Jim Pepper, the lyrics are half English, half Commanche - it's a nice song to listen to in the morning. It was covered by lots of artists in the 60's.

https://open.spotify.com/track/7A4cmwFio1F9itsiDqk1kb?si=15fdca974e694a22

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

lol Apple Vision Pro production being cut as it is bombing

when are these cunts going to realise nobody wants their gimmicky at/ve metaverse bullshit

love to see these guys incinerating cash on this

its a brutal product in its current iteration. surprised Apple let it go out the door for launch tbh as they totally missed on both product and price.

heard they were launching a new Apple AI soon, which is just a wrapper for Google Gemini AI. Kinda mad that they would cede so vital a core skill to their main rival platform.

[Raoul Duke III]

"Should our immediate focus not be", he asks patiently, "on the people who are actually killing the kids"

Let's not pretend Hamas couldn't stop the war this afternoon, if they wanted to. They have agency here.

Sinwar could emerge from his bunker complex under Rafah at the head of his men, tell them to lay down their weapons and hand over the hostages.

Bombing over.

[Raoul Duke III]

It’s hard to put into words as I simply don’t know enough about it, but I do find people’s Pro Ukraine/Israel and Pro Russia/Palestine positions very odd, when they seem to be more different than alike.

Everything you said about Ukraine mustn’t stop because Russia will repeat it with more territory sounds exactly what Palestine was doing?

Well, Hamas did start the Gaza war with their pogrom of over a thousand Israelis on Oct 7th so the material facts are quite different. If that hadn't happened, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

But yes, you're onto something. And that's why the US congressional leadership packaged up the various aid packages in the way they did.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Let's not pretend Hamas couldn't stop the war this afternoon, if they wanted to. They have agency here.

Sinwar could emerge from his bunker complex under Rafah at the head of his men, tell them to lay down their weapons and hand over the hostages.

Bombing over.

the dead kids were just asking for it

[DeadParrot]

Let's not pretend Hamas couldn't stop the war this afternoon, if they wanted to. They have agency here.

Sinwar could emerge from his bunker complex under Rafah at the head of his men, tell them to lay down their weapons and hand over the hostages.

Bombing over.

Give ya a good deal for it.

The lack of value the Israeli government has placed on the hostages lives has been a huge surprise for me.
I imagine for Hamas too.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-publishes-propaganda-video-with-signs-of-life-from-hostage-hersh-goldberg-polin/

This states around 70 hostages out of 130 are dead due to the bombing onslaught. It's probably higher

It would make sense to have them sequestered in similar places to the senior leadership. That would allow them to maintain some bargaining power if the mood amongst the people in Israel becomes more focussed on their return rather than vengeance.
It's in the standing Israeli governement's interest to ensure that doesn't happen.

[zuutroy]

https://www.vivino.com/US/en/finca-los-principes-rioja-reserva/w/1229645?year=2016

€14.99 in Aldi at the moment. Bring a wheelbarrow imo.

[6starpool]

Hamas don't give a shit about he welfare of the Palestinian people. they'd rather martyr them that protect them. The Israeli response to the initial Hamas attack was pretty predictable, although it is more savage than I'd have thought even Netanyahu was capable of. They were always going to murder multiples more Palestinians than Hamas killed.

Israel (the state) don't give the tiniest shite about any Palestinian lives, and would be happy to literally kill them all. They don't seem to give a shit about the Israeli hostages either. I very much doubt the negotiations are as simple as release the hostages, and everything is grand. Gaza would still be a massive pile of rubble that is a disease ridden, starving prison with little access in or out. And Hamas will very much not have gone away, I doubt the actions of the IDF has resolved people in Gaza to behave better and never rise up against their Israeli overlords again.

[Strewelpeter]

In a world where we are constantly bombarded by batshit crazy conspiracy theories I find it very difficult to understand why we do not hear a lot more about how the fuck it was so easy for Hamas to prepare and execute a large scale attack on Israel with very little military response for a number of hours.
Given what we know about the security and defence capabilities of the Israeli state what % chance do we attribute to the possibility that they were 'allowed' carry out the attack by the nexus of power around Netanyahu ?

[Opr]

Reid Hoffman, founder of Linkedin trained a digital twin on his entire corpus of work. The full video is on his own twitter but this is a clip from it which showcases it very well. Holy shit!

[Raoul Duke III]

Hamas don't give a shit about he welfare of the Palestinian people. they'd rather martyr them that protect them. The Israeli response to the initial Hamas attack was pretty predictable, although it is more savage than I'd have thought even Netanyahu was capable of. They were always going to murder multiples more Palestinians than Hamas killed.

Israel (the state) don't give the tiniest shite about any Palestinian lives, and would be happy to literally kill them all. They don't seem to give a shit about the Israeli hostages either. I very much doubt the negotiations are as simple as release the hostages, and everything is grand. Gaza would still be a massive pile of rubble that is a disease ridden, starving prison with little access in or out. And Hamas will very much not have gone away, I doubt the actions of the IDF has resolved people in Gaza to behave better and never rise up against their Israeli overlords again.

Hence why I said it's intractable. It's literally not a solvable problem without a change of leadership on both sides.

I do note though that nobody really ascribes any agency, or indeed responsibility, to Hamas. Who are after all (a) the government in Gaza and (b), the party that launched this current war.

[Raoul Duke III]

Give ya a good deal for it.

The lack of value the Israeli government has placed on the hostages lives has been a huge surprise for me.
I imagine for Hamas too.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-publishes-propaganda-video-with-signs-of-life-from-hostage-hersh-goldberg-polin/

This states around 70 hostages out of 130 are dead due to the bombing onslaught. It's probably higher

It would make sense to have them sequestered in similar places to the senior leadership. That would allow them to maintain some bargaining power if the mood amongst the people in Israel becomes more focussed on their return rather than vengeance.
It's in the standing Israeli governement's interest to ensure that doesn't happen.

But you're not answering the question asked i.e. what do you think Hamas should do?

[Raoul Duke III]

In a world where we are constantly bombarded by batshit crazy conspiracy theories I find it very difficult to understand why we do not hear a lot more about how the fuck it was so easy for Hamas to prepare and execute a large scale attack on Israel with very little military response for a number of hours.
Given what we know about the security and defence capabilities of the Israeli state what % chance do we attribute to the possibility that they were 'allowed' carry out the attack by the nexus of power around Netanyahu ?

The problem with that theory is that 07-Oct made Netanyahu look at best incompetent and at worst incapable of providing the one thing demanded of every Israeli PM, security.

I prefer this bleedin' obvious explanation. Which chimes with the Israeli actions in Gaza itself.

[Opr]

In a world where we are constantly bombarded by batshit crazy conspiracy theories I find it very difficult to understand why we do not hear a lot more about how the fuck it was so easy for Hamas to prepare and execute a large scale attack on Israel with very little military response for a number of hours.
Given what we know about the security and defence capabilities of the Israeli state what % chance do we attribute to the possibility that they were 'allowed' carry out the attack by the nexus of power around Netanyahu ?

Lets go deeper. Who controls the media SP?

[Raoul Duke III]

Lets go deeper. Who controls the media SP?

Jaysus, don't start. You'll set balfejohn off next.

[Opr]

Feels as plain as day that AI has hit a wall and we're in for a shock over the summer when ChatGPT4.5 is released and isn't notably better than GPT4.

Don't know if that seems like a big deal or not, but there's an epic amount of hope incorporated in the stock market based on AI hype. Like it could be something like 20% of US stock pricing.

If it becomes clear that AI is useful but not yet capable of being revolutionary, there could well be a massive correction.

Sam says fuck you, this ride only goes up from here.

[Theresa]

I think if you look at any position that rd3 takes as not caring about right or wrong, but simply wanting to be on the moral high ground in any discussion!

Then the hypocrisy regarding Ukraine and Gaza starts to make sense.

[Opr]

Jaysus, don't start. You'll set balfejohn off next.

Poor Kanye, vilified and cast out when it turns out he was just way ahead of everyone this one.

[Raoul Duke III]

I think if you look at any position that rd3 takes as not caring about right or wrong, but simply wanting to be on the moral high ground in any discussion!

Then the hypocrisy regarding Ukraine and Gaza starts to make sense.

Do you have any thoughts of your own, or are you limited to having a dig at me?

[balfejohn]

Jaysus, don't start. You'll set balfejohn off next.

I’ll stay in me box
The less said the better

[Strewelpeter]

I think if you look at any position that rd3 takes as not caring about right or wrong, but simply wanting to be on the moral high ground in any discussion!

Then the hypocrisy regarding Ukraine and Gaza starts to make sense.

ELI5

[balfejohn]

Well, Hamas did start the Gaza war with their pogrom of over a thousand Israelis on Oct 7th so the material facts are quite different. If that hadn't happened, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

But yes, you're onto something. And that's why the US congressional leadership packaged up the various aid packages in the way they did.

This stage of the war was started by them but the last 80 years have been the build up to that
If you keep kicking a dog it will bite u after a while

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Poor Kanye, vilified and cast out when it turns out he was just way ahead of everyone this one.

I seriously think about this clip a few times a month.

[Strewelpeter]

Reid Hoffman, founder of Linkedin trained a digital twin on his entire corpus of work. The full video is on his own twitter but this is a clip from it which showcases it very well. Holy shit!

The video avatar is mesmerising and bolted on to the inane Linked in corpo speak that GPT excels in makes a very impressive demo but it soon becomes quite underwhelming and highlights for me the relevance of the Weizenbaum quote about Eliza I posted earlier.

Until it fools me with a Nick Cave song, demonstrates ability to be useful on coding complex systems, show any hint of creativity or originality it's all just Eliza with knobs on.

Tangentially relevant having been watching way too much of the likes of Paw Patrol recently I was very struck by this thought:

Sam says fuck you, this ride only goes up from here.

I wonder what his criteria for smarter is, something trending towards AGI or large scale internet of shite?

Whichever it will be huge, and I'm struggling to know which to hope for.

I suppose it's much more likely that instead of something that gives us any indication that AGI is even possible it will point to a generation of AI that is geared towards commercial human replacement applications focussing on making viable the likes of the crap fast food ordering systems that are being hastily rolled out despite being so shite they need an instruction label like this.



b0z1pglgg4wc1.jpg

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

The Big Man himself has stepped up to the plate.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I wonder what his criteria for smarter is, something trending towards AGI or large scale internet of shite?

Whichever it will be huge, and I'm struggling to know which to hope for.

I suppose it's much more likely that instead of something that gives us any indication that AGI is even possible it will point to a generation of AI that is geared towards commercial human replacement applications focussing on making viable the likes of the crap fast food ordering systems that are being hastily rolled out despite being so shite they need an instruction label like this.

Think there's a few nailed on things that the next generation of AI has to be able to do, to show that we are on a path to pure AI.

- Capable of deciding for itself how to implement a multi-step problem. Example: "Book my NCT test". Involves quite a few logic steps to comfortably and reliably carry out a task like that. If thats what we get, then really its hard to see any corporate jobs hanging on.

- Capable of real-time voice conversation (real-time video conversation might need a few more iterations). This unlocks another layer of communication and informational activities that can be reliably done by AI.

- Capable of 'massive memory' - that it can remember perfectly many millions of data context. Memory is epic for reliably carrying out domain specific tasks.

All three of these activities combined will unlock AI managers and thats when societal structures start changing absolutely, and even how we think about the role of humans on the planet.


We wouldn't necessarily expect all three for GPT4.5, but we should reasonably expect it of GPT5 if the intelligence trajectory is to maintained. You get that for GPT5 and then the path to full AI will work itself out.



If thats what GPT5 actually looks like, then there's zero doubt that we need a wholesale societal change. Like international existential organisational planning where we work out how the world can live happily with much less work. We should know that by November - which is EPIC and scary and the full gamut of all the emotions.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I have a song out today, Witchi Tai To, it's a cover of a by Jim Pepper, the lyrics are half English, half Commanche - it's a nice song to listen to in the morning. It was covered by lots of artists in the 60's.

https://open.spotify.com/track/7A4cm...fdca974e694a22

Thats great!!!

[Denny Crane]

the dead kids were just asking for it

Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas hadn't started this round of violence in October? Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas weren't using civilians as human shields?

[balfejohn]

Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas hadn't started this round of violence in October? Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas weren't using civilians as human shields?

Maybe the kids could grow up in a safer world if all sides coped on and live and let live

[Opr]

The video avatar is mesmerising and bolted on to the inane Linked in corpo speak that GPT excels in makes a very impressive demo but it soon becomes quite underwhelming and highlights for me the relevance of the Weizenbaum quote about Eliza I posted earlier.

Until it fools me with a Nick Cave song, demonstrates ability to be useful on coding complex systems, show any hint of creativity or originality it's all just Eliza with knobs on.

Tangentially relevant having been watching way too much of the likes of Paw Patrol recently I was very struck by this thought:

I agree completely on the cartoon. I would be interested if you asked the same question to different demographics if they would feel the same and if it is maybe the case that it hits the nostalgia buttons to make it feel like it has more heart. I think this is a pretty decent attempt to hit my nostalgia feels, artwork is obviously all AI along with the music.

I wonder what his criteria for smarter is, something trending towards AGI or large scale internet of shite?

Whichever it will be huge, and I'm struggling to know which to hope for.

I suppose it's much more likely that instead of something that gives us any indication that AGI is even possible it will point to a generation of AI that is geared towards commercial human replacement applications focussing on making viable the likes of the crap fast food ordering systems that are being hastily rolled out despite being so shite they need an instruction label like this.

At least we have a major opensource player in the market now. Llama 3 that was released a week ago by meta holds its own against everything in the market currently apart from the latest Open AI version. They have a larger version which is still in training that is excepted to match GPT4. Zuck said they are already planning Llama 4. He said the same thing as Sam that it looks like scale just keeps making them better. I haven't seen anyone talk specifically about what that actually means in terms of the tangible improvements that we can expect.

I find it crazy that we have somehow ended up with someone in the market with almost unlimited resources willing to spend so much money to train these models and opensource them.

[Strewelpeter]

We wouldn't necessarily expect all three for GPT4.5, but we should reasonably expect it of GPT5 if the intelligence trajectory is to maintained. You get that for GPT5 and then the path to full AI will work itself out.

I wouldn't be certain about that, I think GPT + Memory will be widely confused with AGI.

If thats what GPT5 actually looks like, then there's zero doubt that we need a wholesale societal change. Like international existential organisational planning where we work out how the world can live happily with much less work. We should know that by November - which is EPIC and scary and the full gamut of all the emotions.

It's unreasonable to be optimistic for a world run by generative AI, it will be a dystopian landscape of extreme inequality where people will have conform or die - speak clearly and call items by their menu name or starve. bleak and depressing but kinda the trajectory you'd expect and people being people will put up and get on with things.

AGI though, that world is literally unimaginable, 'Is this heaven or is it hell, who knows who can tell ?'

[Denny Crane]

Seems an awful coincidence that we happen to be alive (or aware?) at the time when AGI is becoming a possibility. If you were ever going to model points in history, the proliferation of nukes and implementation of AI would be up there.

[Opr]

Think there's a few nailed on things that the next generation of AI has to be able to do, to show that we are on a path to pure AI.

- Capable of real-time voice conversation (real-time video conversation might need a few more iterations). This unlocks another layer of communication and informational activities that can be reliably done by AI.
.

This has already been demonstrated. If you scroll down to real time efficiency section on this link, VASA-1. It is animating the avatar in real time. You can use an audio clip or you can use text which generates the audio clip to drive the avatar. They claim this is all happening on a desktop PC with a latency of 170ms. In theory this means you could have something like GPT driving text responses to feed into this to have it talking to you as an AI avatar.

[zuutroy]

Quite hopeful that I make it to a contented death before this AI hellscape.

[Opr]

I wonder can Sam make a deal with the NSA to get all of our recorded calls as training data so it can better pick up on the nuance of conversations allowing it to break out of the question-response mode. In return he gives them access to all our GPT queries. Seems a fair trade.

[Opr]

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

I wouldn't be certain about that, I think GPT + Memory will be widely confused with AGI.



It's unreasonable to be optimistic for a world run by generative AI, it will be a dystopian landscape of extreme inequality where people will have conform or die - speak clearly and call items by their menu name or starve. bleak and depressing but kinda the trajectory you'd expect and people being people will put up and get on with things.

AGI though, that world is literally unimaginable, 'Is this heaven or is it hell, who knows who can tell ?'

We're just coming out of the covid situation where the whole world had to slow down for a few years, mass unemployment, requirement for everyone to work together for the greater good, and we got through that fine.

The history of the world is that things just keep getting better.

[DeadParrot]

Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas hadn't started this round of violence in October? Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas weren't using civilians as human shields?

Fucking hell

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas hadn't started this round of violence in October? Maybe the kids would be safer if Hamas weren't using civilians as human shields?

Leaving Israel no choice but to drop bombs on playgrounds and implement a starvation policy that has primarily affected women and children. I get you, and I get your empathy. The poor Israelis. They're the real victims in all this, not those pesky kids. I can't believe the UN Chief was so mean as to call it - what were those words - 'a violation of international humanitarian law'.

[DeadParrot]

Once you rationalise civilians are human shields, therefore every civilian is a valid target as there's a target behind them.
Therefore there's no need to look for an actual valid target. It's all valid.

It's hell scape level thinking

[6starpool]

This is the worst AI attempt yet.

[Denny Crane]

Once you rationalise civilians are human shields, therefore every civilian is a valid target as there's a target behind them.
Therefore there's no need to look for an actual valid target. It's all valid.

It's hell scape level thinking

That's not what I mean? I'm not rationalising them as human shields. I'm saying Hamas is deliberately embedding themself into the population and driving up civilian casualties. Urban war is hell. It's awful what's happening.

[Denny Crane]

Leaving Israel no choice but to drop bombs on playgrounds and implement a starvation policy that has primarily affected women and children. I get you, and I get your empathy. The poor Israelis. They're the real victims in all this, not those pesky kids. I can't believe the UN Chief was so mean as to call it - what were those words - 'a violation of international humanitarian law'.

Is there only one party in the conflict?

[6starpool]

That's not what I mean? I'm not rationalising them as human shields. I'm saying Hamas is deliberately embedding themself into the population and driving up civilian casualties. Urban war is hell. It's awful what's happening.

In a place with 2m people in a space half the size of county Louth that almost no one can leave, it's pretty hard not to be embedded with the civilian population.

[Denny Crane]

In a place with 2m people in a space half the size of county Louth that almost no one can leave, it's pretty hard not to be embedded with the civilian population.

I guess Hamas didn't consider the civilian casualties when they launched the Oct attack.

[DeadParrot]

That's not what I mean? I'm not rationalising them as human shields. I'm saying Hamas is deliberately embedding themself into the population and driving up civilian casualties. Urban war is hell. It's awful what's happening.

I'm not saying that is your thinking directly. I'm gaming the thought process behind the justification for shooting through civilians.
The Gaza strip is extremely densely populated and is less than half the size of louth with a population of nearly 2mill.
Where exactly are the battlegrounds? And what exactly is the alternative?
The argument that stopping the relentless attack on every home, school, hospital and university within Gaza would somehow enable hamas to destroy Israel is preposterous.
Since 2001, how many Israeli lives have been lost from rocket atttacks from Gaza?
28.
Fuck Hamas from a great height. It's obscene however, what is being waved away and blindly absolved.

[Denny Crane]

Since 2001, how many Israeli lives have been lost from rocket atttacks from Gaza?
28.
Fuck Hamas from a great height. It's obscene however, what is being waved away and blindly absolved.

How many rockets have been fired?

The number of deaths is only low because every home has a bomb shelter and they're defended by the iron dome. It's not for a lack of trying.