RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[conspicuous]

A few Lions bets of interest to me

Lions[-25] v Western Force looks an easily beatable handicap given the Aussies have named a second string outfit. Apparently they are prioritising a Super 15 dead rubber ahead of playing the Lions. Whatever floats their boat but given their first XV are nothing special I can't see their seconds troubling a strong looking touring side. Even though this Lions side are playing together for the first time there's enough talent to pull away in the second half[-14] similar to the Barbarians game. I'll be on both the match and second half handicaps

It looks like curtains for the unfortunate Rob Kearney who has a grade 1 hamstring tear. This will cement Stuart Hogg's place in the pecking order behind Leigh Halfpenny and assure him of plenty of gametime ahead of the first test. In spite of this development we can still back Hogg at a massive 12/1 with Boyles to start the first test. While 1/2 p is unquestionably the favourite and likely to start, Hogg is a very special talent and could yet be the star of the show . Definitely worth a punt at those odds imo

[Guest]

A few Lions bets of interest to me

Lions[-25] v Western Force looks an easily beatable handicap given the Aussies have named a second string outfit. Apparently they are prioritising a Super 15 dead rubber ahead of playing the Lions. Whatever floats their boat but given their first XV are nothing special I can't see their seconds troubling a strong looking touring side. Even though this Lions side are playing together for the first time there's enough talent to pull away in the second half[-14] similar to the Barbarians game. I'll be on both the match and second half handicaps

It looks like curtains for the unfortunate Rob Kearney who has a grade 1 hamstring tear. This will cement Stuart Hogg's place in the pecking order behind Leigh Halfpenny and assure him of plenty of gametime ahead of the first test. In spite of this development we can still back Hogg at a massive 12/1 with Boyles to start the first test. While 1/2 p is unquestionably the favourite and likely to start, Hogg is a very special talent and could yet be the star of the show . Definitely worth a punt at those odds imo

Well spotted its gone up to as much as 40points now 15 point swing .
Semibluff in gaa betting has had some bets up where bookies were giving wrong prices in his opinion. Its a good opinion imo.

Need get on early with these things.

Reckon because the hammering the lions will give these guys there odds on a series win will shorten.

[KevIRL]

Heads up that TG4 are showing all Irelands games v USA and Canada live and u-20 world Championship group games as well as the semi finals and final live

http://www.irishrugby.ie/ireland/29235.php

[Emmet]

Stan James

HT Handicap +20 @ 10/11

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/w-force-v-lions/half-time-handicap

Will Hill (and others) have cottoned on to this HT long handicap lark.
+23 is 1/2 with them - http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-time-handicap

Our days of value are numbered

[Emmet]

Stan James

HT Handicap +20 @ 10/11

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/w-force-v-lions/half-time-handicap

Will Hill (and others) have cottoned on to this HT long handicap lark.
+23 is 1/2 with them - http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-time-handicap

Our days of value are numbered

At least it was an exciting loss!

Force not taking the 3 points on 20mins was frustrating. Halfpenny's kicking sensational to kill the bet.

[conspicuous]

Well that was pretty smooth for once Looking ahead at the team selction markets there might be a bit of value on Jamie Heaslip. He's coming into the form of his life at the right time and as always is thriving on firm turf. No.8 is a straight shootout between Jamie and Faletau and I think Heaslip has nudged ahead in the pecking order. 7/4 is available with Coral on Heaslip to start the first test. I can't see that price lasting too long

[Emmet]

RE: Starting Tests
What am I missing here?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/start-in-back-row

I would lay Warburton at 1/6 all day long!
Tipuric at 7/2 a big big price imo.
Perhaps I just rate him far higher than Gatland, but he has had a far better season than Warburton and isn't injured...

I would've thought we'd see a

6. SOB 7.Tipuric 8.Heaslip

backrow ahead of the 'favourite'

6. Croft 7.Warburton 8.Felatau

[conspicuous]

RE: Starting Tests
What am I missing here?

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/start-in-back-row

I would lay Warburton at 1/6 all day long!
Tipuric at 7/2 a big big price imo.
Perhaps I just rate him far higher than Gatland, but he has had a far better season than Warburton and isn't injured...

I would've thought we'd see a

6. SOB 7.Tipuric 8.Heaslip

backrow ahead of the 'favourite'

6. Croft 7.Warburton 8.Felatau

I don't disagree but don't forget that Sam is captain and despite Gatland's assurance that he will pick the team on form, in reality Warburton will start the tests unless injured. Tipuric might play if Gatland goes with 2 opensides and plays the skipper at blindside but I don't think there's huge vlaue in backing Tipuric to start to be honest. I think we might see a backrow of SOB, Warburton and Heaslip at some stage on Saturday and if it goes well it might be starting the tests. Lydiate has a lot to prove yet after a long injury lay off and Croft for all his lineout prowess and ability on the wing, has too many deficiencies as a test backrow

[V for Vendetta]

Being rushed back and likely to try to hard equals a big probability Warburton gets injured on Saturday. O'Brien and Heaslip on fire.

[conspicuous]

I said before I looked at the betting that I would back Reds at anything over +14 and I got them +19 @ evens with SkyBet. That's gone now but they're still +19 @ 10/11 with Victor or +18 @ evens with SkyBet. The bookies got killed on the handicap betting for the first 2 Lions matches but I feel they're gone too far the opposite way for this match. The Reds are a far superior outfit to the dross we faced so far and Cooper with a point to prove, will relish facing a team so unfamiliar with each other. As for the Lions, while I admire Gatland's man management skills for giving everyone a chance, I'm less than impressed with the shape and balance of the side. Possible problems at the scrum with Jenkins just back from injury and 2 loosehead locks starting. Backline communication and efficiency must be taken on trust with all four nations represented and new partnerships at half back and midfield. Farrell will keep the scoreboard ticking over and as always there's serious impact on the bench. It should ensure a win for the tourists but I reckon this will be a proper test

[smoothcall]

6/4 any value on Australia for the series?

[Guest]

6/4 any value on Australia for the series?

I think so but this oz team are lacking the players of the 2001 vintage.
I think the lions are too though.
There front row is not great but Healy possibly out for the lions is a huge loss.

The ozzies at home can beat anyone as they beat new zealand last year.
I think there main problem is at 10 though i think James o Connor is the most overrated player in world rugby and dont think he is a quality 10.

The lions have not won a series since 2013.
The oz price has probably dropped since the two hammerings they handed out.
Injuries could have a huge bearing on things but hard know where they gonna happen.

[smoothcall]

I think so but this oz team are lacking the players of the 2001 vintage.
I think the lions are too though.
There front row is not great but Healy possibly out for the lions is a huge loss.

The ozzies at home can beat anyone as they beat new zealand last year.
I think there main problem is at 10 though i think James o Connor is the most overrated player in world rugby and dont think he is a quality 10.

The lions have not won a series since 2013.
The oz price has probably dropped since the two hammerings they handed out.
Injuries could have a huge bearing on things but hard know where they gonna happen.

Im fairly clueless about rugby, I guess thats a maybe? you havent done it yourself anyway?

[Guest]

Im fairly clueless about rugby, I guess thats a maybe? you havent done it yourself anyway?

No not done it its 6/4 though in a two horse race so lions must be 8/15 cant see any value in that.

Im sure if you trawl might get better reasonings though.

[conspicuous]

Im fairly clueless about rugby, I guess thats a maybe? you havent done it yourself anyway?

I've backed Australia at 5/2 and 3/1[currently available] to win the series 2-1 but not for huge money. With the exception of 2005 when a very special AB's team trounced the tourists the Lions series has always ended 2-1 in the professional era. I see much more value in taking this price on Australia rather than backing an outright series win given the highly unlikely possibility of a whitewash. I'm not convinced Australia will win the series but I do think they're overpriced on home soil.

[Semibluff]

that was some shout on the W Force game. to get a bet on 25 points ahead of a 49 point HC (or whatever it went off at) and for the bigger end of the bet still to land. Well done. your well on top of it - keep feeding us rugby fish!!

Id of much prefered Lions coming into the test, but cant imagine anything now to be great value. So id avoid - still sure theyll win it. The 2-1 is def what id do if opposing them though. This isnt an Oz team to create a clean sweep - very very unlikely

[conspicuous]

Looking ahead to tonight I'd be of the opinon that a 24 point handicap on Ireland against USA is too big. The Spetics have been making noise all week about how focussed they are on this match. They have almost a full deck to pick from and they're well prepared against what is basically a second string Irish team playing together for the first time and on an end of season tour. USA should cause Ireland enough problems in the forwards to keep the margin lowish. Weather conditions will also be an issue for Ireland with temperatures of 30c and high humidity expected.
I've gone for USA [+24] @ evens with William Hill

[Guest]

Just about covered the cap 21pts.
Know it was a scratch team but horrible game to watch ref was brutal no authority at all.

[conspicuous]

Just about covered the cap 21pts.
Know it was a scratch team but horrible game to watch ref was brutal no authority at all.

Funny how a pre match punt changes your perception of slow, stagnant, unimaginative play

[The Situation]

PP's money back offer on the rugby tomorrow seems decent. Money back if any of the forwards score the first try. 7 backs each side add up to a ~80% book at current pp odds, if you took in enough shops you could have a nice green book, only problem is the game starts at 10.30

[KevIRL]

Lions just the 1/2000 for tomorrows game and -77 on the cap.

BOD starting and with 2 tries already could be worth a pop for top series tryscorer @ 5/1?

[corigi]

Lions just the 1/2000 for tomorrows game and -77 on the cap.

BOD starting and with 2 tries already could be worth a pop for top series tryscorer @ 5/1?

Might be worth a shot... The two centre's against him tomorrow are both amateurs who never earned a penny from rugby.1 is a student and other computer engineer(or something along that lines) surely be plenty of scores from the backs...

Anyone care to predict what the final score will be? Handicap is 77 from 74 yesterday and under/over points is 91.5

[KevIRL]

Cuthbert with 2 early tries to put a spanner in the works...

edit - nope BBC gave the second try to him but have now changed it to Murray

[Emmet]

Halfpenny to start @ FullBack at 2/7 with Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/start-at-full-back

1/12 with BetVictor.

Only issue is that if Kearney plays well on Saturday, that Gatland could potentially play 1/2P on the wing with Kearney at FB.

I don't think so though.

[conspicuous]

Ireland -10 snapped up with Bet365

Ireland were easy to oppose last week against USA[+24] but I'm backing them to beat a much smaller handicap this week against Canada for several reasons.

Firstly there was very much a holiday feel to last weeks preparation. Anyone who saw the photos of them at a Baseball match or cruising around downtoown Houston knew they weren't taking the yankee match as seriously as a run of the mill Pro 12 match. After last week's scare I'd be confident the intensity and focus of training sessions is much higher. Nobody wants to be remembered as part of the Irish team that lost to the mounties

The Ireland team selection, while not as young and dynamic as last weeks on paper, will do exactly what it says on the tin. The set piece will hold firm and wins us good posession and the back row will tackle and get us over the gainline. Lots of bosh in the backline that will keep the scoreboard ticking over

As for Canada at best they will be close to what USA produced last week but I can't see them being that strong. Cudmore is injured and they dont have the backrow their neighbours had to cause us trouble. They have the big heart of course but not so much else

I'll be disappointed both as an Irish rugby supporter and a punter if we don't win this comfortably


Elsewhere I'm backing New Zealand [-15] v France with Sporting and Wales[-9] v Japan with Stan James

[conspicuous]

Conflicting reports coming on the injury to George North but he's still solid at 1/8 to start the first test. There may be value on Maitland at 7/1 with 888 to get the jersey if he misses out . He's shortened from 15/2 to 9/2 with Victor to start on the wing in Brisbane. It's a very small market though so I can't imagine it took much to shift the price. Neither am I convinced Gatland will give him the jersey even if North and Bowe are unavailable. He may move Halfpenny to the wing or even play the late arrival Simon Zebo. A tentative recommendations I guess

[Semibluff]

1/2 in your smaller bets
and Ire won comfortably. Good shouts again! Seems to be a lot of guess work with the makeshift teams and motivational issues - but your well on the ball so far! Keep up the good work

SOB - wont make the starting team, but definetly should?? Or is short term form too much to go on?

[KevIRL]

Ireland -10 snapped up with Bet365

Ireland were easy to oppose last week against USA[+24] but I'm backing them to beat a much smaller handicap this week against Canada for several reasons.

Firstly there was very much a holiday feel to last weeks preparation. Anyone who saw the photos of them at a Baseball match or cruising around downtoown Houston knew they weren't taking the yankee match as seriously as a run of the mill Pro 12 match. After last week's scare I'd be confident the intensity and focus of training sessions is much higher. Nobody wants to be remembered as part of the Irish team that lost to the mounties

The Ireland team selection, while not as young and dynamic as last weeks on paper, will do exactly what it says on the tin. The set piece will hold firm and wins us good posession and the back row will tackle and get us over the gainline. Lots of bosh in the backline that will keep the scoreboard ticking over

As for Canada at best they will be close to what USA produced last week but I can't see them being that strong. Cudmore is injured and they dont have the backrow their neighbours had to cause us trouble. They have the big heart of course but not so much else

I'll be disappointed both as an Irish rugby supporter and a punter if we don't win this comfortably

Great shout wp again

[conspicuous]

1/2 in your smaller bets
and Ire won comfortably. Good shouts again! Seems to be a lot of guess work with the makeshift teams and motivational issues - but your well on the ball so far! Keep up the good work

SOB - wont make the starting team, but definetly should?? Or is short term form too much to go on?

Cheers Semibluff it's been a good season and very good June for me. I find a lot of irregular matches like these are easy to back in the handicap markets and there's been some glaring errors over the years. It gets much harder to find value during a consistent run of games in the regular league season or the 6N. Rugby markets are much smaller than football though so there's more inefficiencies to capitalise on but also much less liquidity on the other hand

Judging a team's motivation for a particular match involves a large degree of guesswork which often leaves you with egg on your face but it's also based on following a team's preparation, how they reacted to losses in the past, the professionalism of their structures and various other factors. It's something I rely on a lot in end of season games and developed a good feel for over the years. I was very confident Ireland would improve significantly from the USA match based on the improved preparation for the Canada match and the motivation of the players not to be the first Irish team to lose an international to Canada. With New Zealand under the Henry/Hansen regimes they have always reacted to a scare or rusty performance with a huge increase in intensity the following week. I was confident the training for the second French test would be pretty focussed and so while I couldn't be sure of the outcome, I was pretty sure the systems would be in place to deliver a performance like Saturday's.

The Welsh match is one that went horribly wrong and I don't think I ever missed a handicap by 25 points before. Thankfully I slept through it and just got up as it was coming to it's conclusion. In hindsight, results based thinking apart it was bad punt to make. I was going by the logic that a Tier 1 team like Wales , even without their front line players would be far too strong for a team ranked outside the top 15. Having seen a scratch Wales side come through by 4 points against the same side a week earlier I assumed the Welsh would improve with another week together and that the Japanese had emptied their tank in the first test. It was a bad bet to make for 2 reasons. Firstly predicting how a Welsh team reacts to an upset or poor performance is much more difficult and risky to judging how a team like New Zealand responds. For example last November Wales followed up a home loss to Argentina by losing to Samoa a week later. In February they continued their losing streak at home to Ireland at the start of the 6N but followed this by a great performance beating France in Paris. Erratic, mercurial etc they have only ever finished 1st, 4th or 5th in the 6N which speaks volumes about their inconsistencies. My other mistake was in underestimating a Japanese team I didn't know enough about to be backing against and wrote off their ability to play so well 2 weeks running

Predicting the performance of makeshift teams can be fraught with danger obviously but it's also exciting and involves a high degree of analysis. If I'm betting on a scratch team to play well and deliver a performance I want to see players selected who are capable of playing to a discernable, cohesive gameplan that will cause problems for the team they are playing. A strong set piece, a ball carrying backrow with pace and power in the outside channels will work everytime against a lower ranked team like Canada with weak outside backs if combined with a degree of professionalism and discipline. As a semi amateur team they will never be able to live with the physicality and athleticism of a fully professional Irish side. When I saw the Ireland team named it was clear what the game plan would be and easy for a makeshift side to follow, hence my high degree of confidence. Conversely, the team selected for the USA match, while younger and more exciting looking on paper, was much less likely to sing off the same hymn sheet first time of asking. Aside from the aforementioned issues with motivation and preparation, the team had issues in personell for this specific match. The inclusion of Henry instead of O'Donnell deprived us of the ballast and go forward we needed when up to get us consistently over the gainline agaisnt a team with 3 monsters in their backrow. We also had 2 rookies in the backline in Olding and Henshaw and while they are both highly talented and precocious talents, you don't want to see them in a makeshift team when trying to beat a big handicap. Experience helps when dealing with players you are unfamilar with, you see how easily the likes of O'Connell, BOD and Bowe seemlessly fit into the Welsh system with the Lions

Finally in response to your question on Sean O Brien being selected for the Lions, there's no easy answer. We all know backrow is ridiculously competitive on this tour with 7 world class operators in contention for a test place. You could make a legitimate argument for all 7 starting but unfortunately it can only be 3. I do think we miss something at the breakdown with Seanie playing at 7 but you could make a strong case for him starting at 6. With Roberts, North and Bowe out we are now missing a lot of the go forward provided by the outside backs in turn putting huge pressure on the forwards to consistently get us over the gainline. None of the other backrows, for all their various qualities, will give us the consistent hard yards that O'Brien will and I think this will be a huge issue in the first test. So while I think it will be a backrow of

6.Croft/Lydiate
7.Warburton
8.Heaslip

for the first test, I think Gatland will be calling on the services of the Tullow Tank for the second match.

[shano_88]

Any value in Brumbies +11?

Lions team seem very makeshift. Hogg at 10, Twelvetrees and barritt at centre and Shane Williams on the wing.

[Guest]

Any value in Brumbies +11?

Lions team seem very makeshift. Hogg at 10, Twelvetrees and barritt at centre and Shane Williams on the wing.

Hard to know for me anyways.
The brumbies back 3 are good Mogg unlucky not to be in wallaby squad Speight is a powerful winger too.

The lions backline is a big makeshift alright.
Twelvetrees is a fine player a play making 12 not just a bash merchant.
Baritt will tackle all day and organise the defence but offers little in attack.

Wade is a flyer rediculous pace Williams is 36 not many wings playing pro even if its Japan at 36. Have a few euro at 10/1 on him money back if a forward scores only bet.

Hogg at 10 is interesting he is very pacey off the mark too and very versatile can play all almost anywhere in the backline.
The lions backrow of Faletau Tiupuric and O Brien looks very good and should win plenty of ball.
The front row Matt Stevens is fat and unfit looking even for a prop dunno what hes doing over there.
There is huge incentive for test places even if reality the first 1 is probaly picked.

Think the two sub props for the Brumbies are very inexperienced and our pack should dominate them but as the reds showed cohesion and playing together counts.

These late editions to the team very hard to predict what way it will turn out.

But some super players in lions 15 O brien Tupuric Youngs Hogg and a strong bench esp front five replacements can see the Brumbies winning half time and the lions grinding out a 7 8 point win in the end.
Think the handicap is close to right.

[conspicuous]

Looking at NZ v France I really think the French will struggle at the end of a very long season and the kiwis have Carter back with a point to prove. New Zealand to take care of a 20 point handicap with PP @ evens

Samoa +15 v South Africa with Willam Hills

Croft anytime tryscorer at 4/1 for Lions v Aus

[shrapnel]

Looking at NZ v France I really think the French will struggle at the end of a very long season and the kiwis have Carter back with a point to prove. New Zealand to take care of a 20 point handicap with PP @ evens

would agree if michalak was on the pitch but he's not even on the bench today. won't be betting though. come on France!!

edit: Damn, Fritz just got injured. he's been probably our best player in the series. lol, nope, he's back!!

[Guest]

Gone for Tom Youngs anytime try scores @13/2 can see maybe a 5 metre line out rolling maul and he has loads of pace ex center.

[shrapnel]

only bet is jonathan davies first tryscorer

[conspicuous]

Sporting bet out of line with the other bookies in the markets for the second test. 15/8 available on Australia when most others are around 6/4. I fancy Aus to improve most from first test and take the series to a decider

[conspicuous]

Odds against available on Australia for the third test should be snapped up. The market is obviously driven by patriotic support in the British Isles but really Australia should be favourites. It's going to be incredibly difficult for the Lions given their mounting injuries. The momentum is also firmly with Australia and I can only see them improving further. If Roberts returns he will give us some go forward in midfield but the expected absence of Sam Warburton will be massive. He single handedly prevented Australia from creating any fast ball in attack on Saturday that kept the Lions ahead on the scoreboard. His injury enforced departure probably cost the Lions the game in Melbourne

[Guest]

Odds against available on Australia for the third test should be snapped up. The market is obviously driven by patriotic support in the British Isles but really Australia should be favourites. It's going to be incredibly difficult for the Lions given their mounting injuries. The momentum is also firmly with Australia and I can only see them improving further. If Roberts returns he will give us some go forward in midfield but the expected absence of Sam Warburton will be massive. He single handedly prevented Australia from creating any fast ball in attack on Saturday that kept the Lions ahead on the scoreboard. His injury enforced departure probably cost the Lions the game in Melbourne

Ya he was really good after shipping lots of abuse.

Horwill if he gets banned will be a huge loss.
Cant understand the persistance with O connor at 10 would have loved to see Cooper play.

The aussies had so much possession and territory last week if they had less errors turnovers could ahve won by a few scores.
Horwells decison to go for the scrum was very ballsy.

[conspicuous]

Ya he was really good after shipping lots of abuse.

Horwill if he gets banned will be a huge loss.
Cant understand the persistance with O connor at 10 would have loved to see Cooper play.

The aussies had so much possession and territory last week if they had less errors turnovers could ahve won by a few scores.
Horwells decison to go for the scrum was very ballsy.

Cooper isn't the answer if you're having problems at outhalf though. Not the type of player I would want on my team is a high pressure tense environment. I know he's precocious and genial at times but he brings no control and is too easy to get at in matches of this importance. Remember him in the last RWC?

[Guest]

Cooper isn't the answer if you're having problems at outhalf though. Not the type of player I would want on my team is a high pressure tense environment. I know he's precocious and genial at times but he brings no control and is too easy to get at in matches of this importance. Remember him in the last RWC?

I did say would have loved to see him play as a neutral not that id have picked him i would have though.

Ya at rwc oz pack got beaten up by us but on front foot he can be electric.
I applaud Deans for his stubborness in not bringing him back.

[Semibluff]

Backs - Halfpenny, Bowe, Davies, Roberts, North, Sexton, Phillips
Forwards - Corbisiero, Hibbard, A Jones, A W Jones (c), Parling, Lydiate, O'Brien, Faletau

Replacements - T Youngs, Vunipola, Cole, Gray, Tipuric, Murray, Farrell, Tuilagi

The evens on the Ozzies wont last.

Welcome to the Welsh lions & Friends

[Mickey Rosa]

Rugby Championship/Quad Nations/Tri Nations + Argentina starts this weekend. Doesn't seem to be much value in the SA game but NZ - 6 at evens just screams out, with a an even larger insurance bet on NZ at 4/9.

[Mickey Rosa]

-5 now

[Guest]

Rugby Championship/Quad Nations/Tri Nations + Argentina starts this weekend. Doesn't seem to be much value in the SA game but NZ - 6 at evens just screams out, with a an even larger insurance bet on NZ at 4/9.

Are the teams out yet?
Will Mckenzie stick Cooper in straight away?
I think he will O connor is a poor 10.

The ozzies got blown away in 3rd lions test scrum was a shambles.
The new laws depower it a bit.
I think the odds on NZ win have shortened cos Carter is out.

Cruden is a quality player though his kicking was a bit shakey in super 15 final but his running game is super.
NZ can be a bit rusty in first game of series and usually improve learn from mistakes as tournaments go on.

The new coach for oz will have them fired up and teams often perform very well for new coaches under Deans they stagnated and discipline was a huge problem.
However probably wont be enough to cover that generous 5 point handicap.

[Mickey Rosa]

That was all too easy for NZ and a nice start to the day. I thought earlier in the week that Argentina would be about +12 or 14 but +17 at evens is too big to pass up for me. These are no longer a thrown together squad, most are playing at the very highest level and have been closing the gap against SA for the past few years.

A smaller bet than I had no NZ but +17 on Argentina.

[Guest]

That was all too easy for NZ and a nice start to the day. I thought earlier in the week that Argentina would be about +12 or 14 but +17 at evens is too big to pass up for me. These are no longer a thrown together squad, most are playing at the very highest level and have been closing the gap against SA for the past few years.

A smaller bet than I had no NZ but +17 on Argentina.

Ya NZ showed there class easy winners.

Missing the heartbeat of the team Lobbe though irreplaceable.
Contemponi must be on his last legs likewise Albacete.
A team with no Ledesma will seem weird he has been around so long.
Id expect a spirited 50 55 and saffers to run away with it in final 20.

[conspicuous]

Ya NZ showed there class easy winners.

Missing the heartbeat of the team Lobbe though irreplaceable.
Contemponi must be on his last legs likewise Albacete.
A team with no Ledesma will seem weird he has been around so long.
Id expect a spirited 50 55 and saffers to run away with it in final 20.

Ye mostly this sentiment. We don't really have a form guide for Argentina and it's hard to see them improve on last year given the loss or ageing of the players you mentioned. South Africa have a strong backline, a settled and experienced half back partnership and probably the best pack in the world at the moment. I was hoping to get South Africa at -13/-14. That's not available but I've taken them -16 @ evens which I still think represents a little value for us

[Mickey Rosa]

Bias accepted but Pollock has missed a serious amount of SA high tackles and ruck infringements, no complaints with the penalty try

[conspicuous]

Even after his hatrick yesterday Ladbrokes still have Ben Smith at 10/1 for TTS in the RC/4N, while he's 7/2 and 4/1 elsewhere. Snap it up while you can because it won't stay. South Africa are 5/1 to win the tournament with SportingBet compared to 4/1 with most other bookies. I already have them at 11/2 pre tournament but might back them again at this price . As I said before they have the best pack in the world and have a good blend of youth and experience. I think they have the tools to compete with a NZ team with an unconvincing front 5 and too many ageing players. Dagg, Savea and Smithx3 areworld class for the AB's but the games against SA won't be played on their terms like it was yesterday.

My biggest concern about the bet is the 3 successive away matches againstArg, Aus and NZ in rounds 2, 3 and 4. South Africa will need to come home with at least 9 points meaning 2 wins and narrrow loss in Auckland. It will be tough but I've no doubt the Boks will win in Argentina and I think they will crush Aus up front too. The 2 matches between SA and NZ will be intriuging, can't wait

[conspicuous]

Even after his hatrick yesterday Ladbrokes still have Ben Smith at 10/1 for TTS in the RC/4N, while he's 7/2 and 4/1 elsewhere. Snap it up while you can because it won't stay.

2/1 now with Laddies if anyone was listening, and best priced 5/2

[conspicuous]

Looking to this weekend I'm confident about SA battering Aus up front so would give them a big chance of winning. I have them on the handicap of {+5 @10/11 and have also backed them outright @13/8

I think Argentina will struggle in NZ but the handicap of 26/27 is just a bit too big so I'm avoiding that one


In the Rabo Ulster could obliterate the 5 point handicap against the Dragons. Watch out for the exciting young centre partnership of Farrell and Marshall who could cause real damage. The absence of Pienaar means it's not a max bet but still one I'm very happy to punt on


I'm also following the advice of a friend who very successfully punts on the AP[thanks Burrowhill].These are his selections for this weekend

Bath 1-12
Saracens -11
Exeter +10

Also had small bets on no try in Newcastle at 10/1 (rain forecast) and South Africa ht/ Australia ft @ 6/1.

[Guest]

Looking to this weekend I'm confident about SA battering Aus up front so would give them a big chance of winning. I have them on the handicap of {+5 @10/11 and have also backed them outright @13/8

I think Argentina will struggle in NZ but the handicap of 26/27 is just a bit too big so I'm avoiding that one


In the Rabo Ulster could obliterate the 5 point handicap against the Dragons. Watch out for the exciting young centre partnership of Farrell and Marshall who could cause real damage. The absence of Pienaar means it's not a max bet but still one I'm very happy to punt on


I'm also following the advice of a friend who very successfully punts on the AP[thanks Burrowhill].These are his selections for this weekend

Ya cant believe that aussies are favs for the match but didnt want to write it up cos read planet rugby review and maybe it biased me.

burrowhill does have some cracking tips

[conspicuous]

I also have a large bet on Ulster to win the regular season. They're available @11/4 with a couple of bookies and generally 5/2. Both prices represent good value in my opinion. There seems to be a belief that last year was a one off for Ulster that can't be repeated. It's not an opinion that I would concur with at all. Ulster have been building steadily for a few years and I can see further improvement this year. They have kept all their important foreign players who will be available during international windows when other teams will suffer. They also have a generation of young players who made their mark last year but should improve further this term. They include Henderson, Jackson, Marshall, Gilroy, and Olding who are all now Irish internationals. Watch out for Chris Farrell too who missed all of last year through injury but was one of the stand out players in an Irish u20 team who excelled in 2012.

[conspicuous]

I'm on SA @ 3/1 and also on the +8 handicap. I've also backed them earlier to win TRC @ 5/1 and 11/2. Last weekend was very good for me in terms of this bet, a win for the Boks this weekend would be great

[Guest]

Any love for Argies plus 11@ evens v Australia worth a punt i think.
Id not get carried away with performance v all blacks rain was a great leveller.

Ozzies in ribbons playing terribly Genia dropped and Mckenzies game plan looking non existent.

Michael Hooper got swallowed last week not surprising with the size of Bok back row and think Lobbe and co can make hay.
They will never have a better chance i feel.

[conspicuous]

Connacht +6 @ 10/11
Connacht win 2/1
Connacht /Ulster total points under 37.5 @5/6

Northampton 10/11
London Irish 10/11

Toulon -28 @ 10/11

[conspicuous]

Looking at the Rabo this weekend there's a couple of matches that appeal to me strongly. Treviso at -8 is one of them, given both how strong the Italians are at home in this competition and how out of form Connacht are. Connacht have lost every game so far this season and have also failed to beat the handicap in each game. I expect that to continue given the weak frontrow and scrum half Pat Lam has selected. This could be a long night at the office for the Irish province against a strong Treviso pack that had Munster in all sorts of trouble a couple of weeks ago.

I don't particularly like getting involved in matches my own teams are involved in but I think the bookies have overpriced Munster against Leinster. 7/4 on Munster at Thomond Park against anyone seems long but particularly against a Leinster side under a new coach who haven't really convinced this season. Considering there's several Leinster players just returned or returning for this I get the impression Munster will be more focused and ready for this match. Leinster's defence around the fringes has been pretty bad this season and Munster should be able to exploit it. You can also back Munster +5 @10/11 which is very appealing

South Africa will probably come up short for me on my bet for them to win the Rugby Chmapionship but I still fancy them to chin the AB's at Ellis Park, as they usually do. Motivation certainly shouldn't be an issue given the nature of the reverse fixture a few weeks ago. SA+1 @ 10/11 is the bet

[shrapnel]

Heineken Cup:

I was looking at the group betting and spotted this:. Castres are 11/1 to win the group and 8/1 to qualify.

I've watched most of Castres games this season, and as with all French clubs, win games at home and play 2nd string teams when away, but they are a very settled team with Kockott seriously marshalling the troups, and with the arrival of Richie Gray who is quickly finding his place and role, i believe could be real threat if they take the competition seriously.

This is a seriously tough group, but with Leinster gently struggling to find their rhythm, and northampton also, i'd be happy to bet that Castres will win all their home games, with a realistic if small chance of picking up an away win.

8/1 to qualify seems really good value at this stage.

If they were to qualify and get home draws, they could actually threaten, even more so if they face French clubs, so a small each way bet at 66/1 to win the whole thing has been placed.

Forgot to add for those who don't follow French rugby, but Castres are the French Champions after beating Toulon in the final. Yes, Toulon were a little tired, but not that much tbh, and don't forget Castres beat Clermont in the semis and Montpelier in the QF. Small budget but massive heart and massive belief.

[conspicuous]

Heineken Cup:

I was looking at the group betting and spotted this:. Castres are 11/1 to win the group and 8/1 to qualify.

I've watched most of Castres games this season, and as with all French clubs, win games at home and play 2nd string teams when away, but they are a very settled team with Kockott seriously marshalling the troups, and with the arrival of Richie Gray who is quickly finding his place and role, i believe could be real threat if they take the competition seriously.

This is a seriously tough group, but with Leinster gently struggling to find their rhythm, and northampton also, i'd be happy to bet that Castres will win all their home games, with a realistic if small chance of picking up an away win.

8/1 to qualify seems really good value at this stage.

If they were to qualify and get home draws, they could actually threaten, even more so if they face French clubs, so a small each way bet at 66/1 to win the whole thing has been placed.

Forgot to add for those who don't follow French rugby, but Castres are the French Champions after beating Toulon in the final. Yes, Toulon were a little tired, but not that much tbh, and don't forget Castres beat Clermont in the semis and Montpelier in the QF. Small budget but massive heart and massive belief.

Castres are a quality side. However they don't have the depth to realistically challenge on 2 fronts so they won't even try. They'll send weakened teams to the away matches and by the time Leinster visit them after Christmas they'll be out of contention. Even at them prices I wouldn't bother. I do think Northampton will be genuine contenders in that group and 16/5 seems the only bit of value I see in group winner markets. I also love the 40/1 with Betwin about Northampton to win the cup

[conspicuous]

I hope the start of the HEC brings a bit of traffic back to this thread because there's been little discussion here so far this season. Some of the bookies are out very early with markets for next weekends fixtures and I've spotted a couple of opportunities I think might be profitable.

Opposing Connacht in the handicap market was my main bet last weekend and I've lumped on them to lose heavily again this Friday against English heavyweights Saracens. Saracens -11 is the best price currently available with PP and I've several reasons to believe this match will be more one sided than that . The home side are both out of form and heavily curtailed by injuries. They're playing very unstructured rugby under new coach Pat Lam who seems to be encouraging running the ball from your own 5m line at every opportunity. They're injury list currently stands at around 20 leaving them quite threadbare in several areas including front row. They can't even rely on the traditional thunderstorm to welcome opposition to the Sportsground as conditions pormise to be dry and settled.
As for Saracens they will travel in rude health having won every match so far this season including an impressive 10 point win away to Harlequins the weekend before last. They have one of the best setpieces in the competition and an outhalf in Owen Farrell with highly impressive kicking stats. This alone should be enough to beat the handicap. They also had the luxury of resting most of their first team at the weekend in preparation for this match and still beat London Wasps

Connacht have failed to beat the handicap in any of their matches so far this season while Saracens have beat every handicap apart from the Wasps game when they fielded a second string side. There's a massive gap in form and class between these 2 sides and I fully expect to see it in the result.

I'll get around to the other matches in due course but for now get all your dough on Saracens