RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[amberleaf]

mike ross for the man of the match @ 50/1 for a tenner (pp)
ireland/engand ht/ft @ 7/1 (pp) 1 point
england/ireland ht/ft @ 7/1 (pp) 1 point
George North anytime tryscorer @ 10/3 for half a point
zebre @ 7/4 to lead at half time v glasgow,1 point bet (gen)[/QUOTE]

not the worst weekend in the rugby punting for the weekend with north & zebre coming in,a hell of a lot better than last weekend,thats for sure.

France by 15 gonna rape Welsh scrum.

reckon the pitch had a huge bearing on this,with the sod more or less tearing away from under the boot they just couldn't build up any momentum.

Hi

hi (excuse the smell from the jock-strap filled dressing room)

note to self: think the french could rattle the english hcp ,they have a break to sort things out(went straight from the t 14 into italy) a little r & r should help,imo there a hell of a lot better than we've seen so far and can expect a major improvement.also play more of the the pro 12 when 6 nations are on.

[conspicuous]

Paddy Power out very early with odds for the next round of 6N matches.

Italy 5/2[+7] v Wales 3/10
England 2/7[-7] v France 13/5
Scotland 6/4[+4] v Ireland 8/15

Looking at Italy's home record over the last couple of years there might be some value on them here. I'm sure they were disgusted by their Murrayfield debacle but I'd expect them to perform closer to their levels against France next time out. Their record v Wales at home in the 6N is 2/6 since 2000 and their home record in the competition in 9/33. The handicap betting of +7 interests me more though. In their last 8 home matches in the 6N, Italy have only lost by Saturday week's 7 point handicap once, that was by 8 points to Wales 2 years ago. They have beaten Scotland twice, France twice, lost to England by 4 and 5 points and lost to Ireland by 2 points 2 years ago.

[corigi]

Paddy Power out very early with odds for the next round of 6N matches.

Italy 5/2[+7] v Wales 3/10
England 2/7[-7] v France 13/5
Scotland 6/4[+4] v Ireland 8/15

Looking at Italy's home record over the last couple of years there might be some value on them here. I'm sure they were disgusted by their Murrayfield debacle but I'd expect them to perform closer to their levels against France next time out. Their record v Wales at home in the 6N is 2/6 since 2000 and their home record in the competition in 9/33. The handicap betting of +7 interests me more though. In their last 8 home matches in the 6N, Italy have only lost by Saturday week's 7 point handicap once, that was by 8 points to Wales 2 years ago. They have beaten Scotland twice, France twice, lost to England by 4 and 5 points and lost to Ireland by 2 points 2 years ago.

Ireland be about 4/5 I think come match day maybe even 10/11 (Already 8to11 on Betfair).Healy already out and god knows how many players be out injured I say another 2-3...Even the ones who play wont be 100 percent.. Cant see us shorten below the 1.72 available at moment

[Emmet]

As we ponder if Kidney is going to have the balls to not have O'Gara near the team sheet next weekend, here's a tidy little summation of his time so far this season with Munster.

Some interesting stats for Keatley and ROG at Munster this season.

Keatley has started a total of 10 games for Munster: 8 wins and 2 losses
ROG has started 11 games: 5 wins and 6 losses.

In the Rabo:
Keatley: 6 wins and 2 losses, the 2 losses were a point away to Ulster and 7 points home to Scarlets. So bonus points from both of them.

ROG: 3 wins and 3 losses, no LBP in any of the losses

In the HEC:
Keatley: 2 wins no losses. The wins were bonus point victories at home to Edinburgh and RCM92 (which got Munster into the QF)

ROG: 2 wins and 2 losses. Both bonus point losses. No bonus point wins.

When Keatley started, Munster scored 228 points and shipped 91
When ROG started, Munster scored 211 points and shipped 196

Keatley started against Edinburgh, Scarlets, Treviso, Zebre, Ulster, Connacht and RCM92. 7 home matches (1 loss), 4 away (1 loss).

ROG started against Dragons, Ospreys, Leinster, Saracens, RCM92, Glasgow, Cardiff and Scarlets. 4 home matches (1 loss), 7 away (5 losses).

[conspicuous]

Looking at the betting for next weekend a couple of prices stand out. Firstly Betfred are offering 13/8 on Scotland when most other major bookies are offering between 5/4 and 7/5. Personally I think anything close to evens or above on Scotland is a good price and I may have to take my patriotic cap off for this one.
The stats for Scotland v Ireland in the 6N would point firmly to an Irish win. In 13 6N encounters Ireland have won 11 and Scotland 2. Ireland are also 5/6 at Murrayfield including 5 on the bounce. Ireland haven't lost back to back 6N fixtures since 2008 while Scotland haven't won 2 on the bounce since Mel Gibson was at his peak.

But

Ireland's casualty list is getting longer by the day. At the moment through injury or suspension we can already rule out Cian Healy, Mike McCarthy, Johnathan Sexton, Gordan D'Arcy, Tommy Bowe and Simon Zebo. There are also serious doubts about Donnacha Ryan and Brian O Driscoll. That's not to mention long term absentees Stephen Ferris and Paul O'Connell who may not play for Ireland again. All of the above would be first team starters if fit and available.
Scotland meanwhile have shown an ability to score tries and counter attack for the first time in decades. They will be selecting from a full deck and playing at home. Crucially though, they have momentum that only a comprehensive win like last weekends will give you. They have two new wingers in Visser and Maitland that are proven tryscorers at every level and in Stuart Hogg they have a player that may bring the same attacking dynamism and potency to Scotland that O'Driscoll brought to Ireland when he first emerged. Their set piece is solid and will win enough posession to create scoring opportunites. The only place I think Ireland are significantly better is in the backrow. Scotland were much better here against Italy though and worked as a unit at the breakdown.
At half backs Scotland aren't any world beaters but the ROG show is back in town for Ireland. This is a player on his last legs who should be nowhere near an international side. His performances of late have been painful to watch and he's now a liability at this level. I hope Kidney sees sense and gives youth it's chance but it seems unlikely. O'Gara provides nothing in attack and defence anymore and even his trusted kicking seems to be going south. With O'Gara at 10 I really can't see anything but a Scotland win

[Emmet]

Kidney bottle job.

ROG gtd the start, Jackson on bench.

Tom Court, David Kilcoyne, Fitzpatrick, Mike Ross
Rory Best, Sean Cronin
Donncha O'Callaghan, Donnacha Ryan, Lewis Stevenson, Devin Toner
Peter O'Mahony, Ian Henderson, Sean O'Brien, Chris Henry
Jamie Heaslip, James Coughlan

Conor Murray, Eoin Reddan
Ronan O'Gara, Paddy Jackson

Luke Marshall, Brian O'Driscoll, Darren Cave
Keith Earls, Luke Fitzgerald, Craig Gilroy, Fergus McFadden
Robin Henshaw, Rob Kearney

[conspicuous]

The other match I was going to comment on was Italy v Wales. The match odd are generally 5/2 ish on Italy or +7 in the caps. However Sporting Bet are offering 4/1 on Italy +9 in the handicap market. When one bookie is offering a much better price like this there's usually a mistake somewhere. One big caveat though, Italian captain, playmaker and general go to man Sergio Parisse is a major doubt after being sent off at club level at the weekend. If he's suspended it will be a major loss for the Italians

[amberleaf]

Chris Henry & Dave McSharry out of the 30(both injured),with Tommy O'Donnell and Ian Madigan getting the nod.

[jack90210]

Whats everyone thinking for the weekend?

Thinking big bets on France +7 and Ireland -2 and a small bet on Italy +8.

[conspicuous]

Whats everyone thinking for the weekend?

Thinking big bets on France +7 and Ireland -2 and a small bet on Italy +8.

You need to shop around for best prices. Italy are available +9 @ evens with Bet 365 and 888 which is hard to oppose. I am a little concerned about the loss of Parisse though as he's as big a player for Italy as BOD has been for Ireland over the years. They've brought Burton in for Orquera too which suggests they're looking for stability and will be happy to dog it out with Wales. This would suggest a lowish scoring match

I won't be punting on the other 2 matches. I've decided never to bet on France again as they're too erratic and I've been stung too many times. I was all over the Scotland @ 13/8 before the Ireland team was announced but now I've a bit more confidence in my compatriots to do the job. Irealnd have a lot of injuries but for once Deccie made a good team selection. Jackson at 10 pleased me as ROG is finsished at this level and Luke Marshall is going to be a special talent. Looking forward to the match but probably won't have any bet on it

[Guest]

Whats everyone thinking for the weekend?

Thinking big bets on France +7 and Ireland -2 and a small bet on Italy +8.

Maybe can give us reason for big bets?
Id not put someone elses money on France even if they seem to be picking players correctly Parra at scrum half Fofana at 12.
Think there coinfidence is in bits coach is clueless tactically.
Its promised wet and windy saturday England played well in dublin simple rugby but effective.
At home coinfident and a great record over the French.
Hartley and Lawes are starting and good players can be stupid and may get yellowed.

Id not go near Itay Parisse is worth 10-12 points a game to them imo.
Hes immense as a leader and everything he does scored opening try against the French.

After the shambles last week against Scotland can they pick it up without there leader and inspiration?
No they cant.
Where are they going to get scores?
Wales have the talent and a gutsy win against France showed what they can do.
Roberts and Davies in center need big games have been poor enough but North and Cuthbert with some decent ball will make hay.
Halfpenny is in great form and i think Wales will win well.


Id not go near Ireland either not saying Scots are up to much but with Jackson at 10 god knows what will happen.
Scots have 2 huge second rows in Hamilton and Gray and will target our lineout which has been poor enough.
They have a decent back row but half backs are not great.
We will kick lots to there exciting back three.
Dont think Bod is fully fit losing him would be a disaster.
We could win by 12 13 points just cant see value in betting ether way.

Stephen Ferris looks out for the year i made aprediction in bbv my 10 predictions for the year
that well never see him in green again i think sadly thats now nearly a reality

[The Situation]

When's the last time France were slightly bigger than 3's for a six nations tie? Are they really a ~25% dog for this game?

[shrapnel]

When's the last time France were slightly bigger than 3's for a six nations tie? Are they really a ~25% dog for this game?

On france myself, more out of pride than anything else, but it's going to be a nice dry day and 3s seems big. France have their back to the wall, and that s just how they like it.

[Guest]

On france myself, more out of pride than anything else, but it's going to be a nice dry day and 3s seems big. France have their back to the wall, and that s just how they like it.

Ah Shrap Definitely betting with the heart here.
They can be the only northern hemisphere beacon of light sometmes.
I hope they stuff England but they ahve been so bad so brutal cant see i happening.

[shrapnel]

Ah Shrap Definitely betting with the heart here.
They can be the only northern hemisphere beacon of light sometmes.
I hope they stuff England but they ahve been so bad so brutal cant see i happening.

For sure, but 3s still seems on the generous side. Conditions are coming together for a big French game, hopefully it s today. Other than that, it s only 20 quid for the Craic.

[The Situation]

France are a rare case here when you could say that backing them in the handicap wouldn't be any value but backing them in the match odds is. When they're on it they're usually really on it and imo the price differential between the hc line and match odds is too big considering their erratic nature.

[Dice75]

For sure, but 3s still seems on the generous side. Conditions are coming together for a big French game, hopefully it s today. Other than that, it s only 20 quid for the Craic.

Jumped on your bandwagon Shrap so i can shout at the telly.

France HT/FT @ 9/2 for the craic.

[shrapnel]

Jumped on your bandwagon Shrap so i can shout at the telly.

France HT/FT @ 9/2 for the craic.

Believe!!!

[NewApproach]

On France HT/FT at 8.0 and 8.2. Seems too big a price, although if they are down within 10 minutes I can't see them getting back into it.

[Keane]

Bastereud is ridiculously fat!

[conspicuous]

France to beat Ireland 10/11 Sporting Bet 6pt bet
Louis Picamoles 1st tryscorer 25/1 Stanjames .5pt bet
Italy[+26] evens Paddy Power 3pt bet
Italy England under 54.5pts 5/6 Boyles 3 pt bet[way out of line with other bookies]

[eagle eye]

I like Ireland having seen that Michalak is starting.

[smoothcall]

France to beat Ireland 10/11 Sporting Bet 6pt bet
Louis Picamoles 1st tryscorer 25/1 Stanjames .5pt bet
Italy[+26] evens Paddy Power 3pt bet
Italy England under 54.5pts 5/6 Boyles 3 pt bet[way out of line with other bookies]

5 pts on a 25/1 shot! gambboooooooooool, gl

[smoothcall]

oh misread, 0.5, sigh gl still but not as degen as I hoped

[Guest]

I like Ireland having seen that Michalak is starting.

If they had Machenaud with him id agree.
Thnk France due a big game and its going to come today.
Parra is an infinitely better player than the slow Murray.

That fat lump Bastareud despite being a strong runner is replaced by Fritz who always plays well against us.
Clerc scores tries for fun aganinst us too and Medard is a class act even coming back from injury.
The French were in good form last night in town will be in better form at 7 this evening.

[Emmet]

Bringing the oul "Italy Long Handicap" tactic out of the bag again

This worked well in November, lets give it a go tomorrow again.

Italy +13 1st half http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-time-handicap (10/11 Skybet)

England -13 2nd half http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-half-handicap (10/11 Betfred)

2nd half - http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...t-scoring-half (4/5 Skybet & others)

[conspicuous]

oh misread, 0.5, sigh gl still but not as degen as I hoped

lol I need to be in a big hole to be making them sort of bets. I did actually have a 22/1 winner on this match when I saw that was the odds Paddy Power were offering on the draw. I only did it as a saver because I had a decent stake on France, the weather conditions and most importantly because it was only 14's to 16's elsewhere. Thankfully got me out of trouble for backing France

[Guest]

Tried having 50 on O mahoney in my local powers rang it up 10 mins later said youc an have 10 f off tight cunts. Was 28/1 by time got to next one.

[Emmet]

Bringing the oul "Italy Long Handicap" tactic out of the bag again

boom

miss

miss


(Small loss)

[Mike]

What do people think for the quins munster match tomorrow..

I backed clermont -9 and quins -6 in singles and a double and just wondering should i lay off some to guarantee profit?

[conspicuous]

What do people think for the quins munster match tomorrow..

I backed clermont -9 and quins -6 in singles and a double and just wondering should i lay off some to guarantee profit?

Let it ride

[Guest]

What do people think for the quins munster match tomorrow..

I backed clermont -9 and quins -6 in singles and a double and just wondering should i lay off some to guarantee profit?

I really like Quins -6 gamb@@@@@L

[amberleaf]

are ulster -6 looks worth a pop with these line ups,looks a very strong looking selection by anscombe.

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/matchcentre/2648.php?section=lineups&fixid=173559

[Guest]

are ulster -6 looks worth a pop with these line ups,looks a very strong looking selection by anscombe.

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/match...s&fixid=173559

Long time a post here.
Know your a fan of second half handicaps if Afoa Muller and Henderson come on serious beef to the pack and then the pace of Marshall.

The connacht bench is very ordinary.
Ulster will be looking for 5 points so i expect all Ulsters heavy hitters to come on in second half and pull away.

[V for Vendetta]

are ulster -6 looks worth a pop with these line ups,looks a very strong looking selection by anscombe.

http://www.rabodirectpro12.com/match...s&fixid=173559

Long time a post here.
Know your a fan of second half handicaps if Afoa Muller and Henderson come on serious beef to the pack and then the pace of Marshall.

The connacht bench is very ordinary.
Ulster will be looking for 5 points so i expect all Ulsters heavy hitters to come on in second half and pull away.

Looks a very good bet to me.

[Guest]

Looks a very good bet to me.

Sods law ulster will have 4 before the break and not give a damn.

[V for Vendetta]

Sods law ulster will have 4 before the break and not give a damn.

Tommy is playing for a lions berth. I'm expecting a hat-trick from him tbh!!

[Guest]

Tommy is playing for a lions berth. I'm expecting a hat-trick from him tbh!!

Ya ulsters from been poor but have the potential to rack up a big score here.

[Guest]

Second half handicap is Ulster to win by more than 3 points@10/11
Afoa is such a beast can see him getting a couple of scrum penaltys when he comes on.

[amberleaf]

shows 100% bets on oddschecker are on ulster in the -hcp, but yet the line hasn't moved which is a little concern,kinda indicates the bets placed are small,or maybe the whole thing is distorted with gunny off on missionary work anyways stuck with -6 with billy hill for 55 quid.

[Guest]

Afoa was in beast mode crumpled his man when he came on.
Could have had a penalty try but were overall worthy winners on all handicaps.

Ulster won second half 12-3 Payne break away try utting gloss on it.

[conspicuous]

I'm on Clermont -11 v Munster and I'm confident enough to make it a 5 pt bet. I just can't see Munster staying with Clermont for 80 minutes given the respective strength of both sides and the quality Clermont can call on from the bench. The devastating form of Sivivatu and Fofana alone should cover the handicap if they play close to their form of late. Munster know doubt will give it their all but even with a full squad it would be difficult to see them living with Clermont's intensity and power. The loss of Howlett and DOC, both made for matches like this is a huge blow to any chances they had

[Emmet]

Could be a good one to go for the +/- tactic.

Munster +6 @ HT with skybet Evens - http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-time-handicap

Clermont -6 2nd Half with Ladbrokes Evens - http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-half-handicap

[conspicuous]

Could be a good one to go for the +/- tactic.

Munster +6 @ HT with skybet Evens - http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-time-handicap

Clermont -6 2nd Half with Ladbrokes Evens - http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-uni...-half-handicap

You do well on them bets don't you ?
Both bets have appeal, Clermont -6 second half more so imo

[Emmet]

You do well on them bets don't you ?
Both bets have appeal, Clermont -6 second half more so imo

You have to get the long handicaps for them to be value. No point pissing around a +8 HC, need +13 and up to be able to spot value.

The handicaps are uniformly distributed, but definitely shouldn't be.

Italy are the proof of that, I imagine the +/- on them would be a long long long term winner.

[conspicuous]

You have to get the long handicaps for them to be value. No point pissing around a +8 HC, need +13 and up to be able to spot value.

The handicaps are uniformly distributed, but definitely shouldn't be.

Italy are the proof of that, I imagine the +/- on them would be a long long long term winner.

True I've had plenty of success backing Italy in first half handicap markets. Opposing Ireland in second half handicap markets would definitely have been a winner over the last season too.

[smoothcall]

You have to get the long handicaps for them to be value. No point pissing around a +8 HC, need +13 and up to be able to spot value.

The handicaps are uniformly distributed, but definitely shouldn't be.

Italy are the proof of that, I imagine the +/- on them would be a long long long term winner.

I know football is a slow upward curve for probaility to score for each minute, so I assume it's the same for all sports. Logically betting both ways should definitely be profitable .

[Guest]

The only bet id have on Clermont Munster is for munster to ship a hiding.

The Clermont backline is lethal and that pack will provide plenty of ball for them unlike teh toothless Quins pack.

Quins still won plenty of scrum penaltys and this could be a great weapon for Clermont
the Munster bench missing Donn O C who offers little impact looks very weak.

Clermont have just hammered Toulouse and Toulon abd beat Montpellier by 22 in the quarters.
Anything but a comprehensive Munster defeat will be a shock.
I think it could be by as much as 30 points.

[conspicuous]

Glasgow might be worth a nibble this weekend at 5/1 against Leinster with Sportingbet. Their line is way out from that which the bookies set with Skybet as low as 3/1 and most of the others no higher than 4/1. Glasgow are a very strong side playing an attacking game very effectively this season under Gregor Townsend. They won't be daunted by the trip to the RDS and should have chinned us there in the regular season game recently. Their sole focus is this competition while Leinster as usual are campaigning on two fronts. Leinster have however shown some of their best form this season of late and have a strong roster to choose from. I'm a little uneasy about this one though and 5/1 on Glasgow seems too big to ignore. Best price available in the handicap market is Glasgow +9 @ 10/11
In the other Rabo semi I would fancy Ulster to give the Scarlets a good seeing to and take care of the -10 @ 20/21 available from Skybet

[V for Vendetta]

Glasgow might be worth a nibble this weekend at 5/1 against Leinster with Sportingbet. Their line is way out from that which the bookies set with Skybet as low as 3/1 and most of the others no higher than 4/1. Glasgow are a very strong side playing an attacking game very effectively this season under Gregor Townsend. They won't be daunted by the trip to the RDS and should have chinned us there in the regular season game recently. Their sole focus is this competition while Leinster as usual are campaigning on two fronts. Leinster have however shown some of their best form this season of late and have a strong roster to choose from. I'm a little uneasy about this one though and 5/1 on Glasgow seems too big to ignore. Best price available in the handicap market is Glasgow +9 @ 10/11
In the other Rabo semi I would fancy Ulster to give the Scarlets a good seeing to and take care of the -10 @ 20/21 available from Skybet

Leinster to crush. No issue with the battle on two fronts. Might be relevant for the Rabo final but not until then.

Scarlets were a disorganised rabble last week. Ulster should have more then enough for them but handicap betting in knock out games is tricky business.

[amberleaf]

the two things that level the playing pitch for me in rugby is a,heart and b,weather.forecast is poor over the weekend and plenty of heart in this glasgow set-up.could be closer than it looks,best wait for the line ups etc but could be a little value @ 5s alright imo.

[Emmet]

heart?

sigh

[amberleaf]

whats that?

[Emmet]

Captain Planet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Planet_and_the_Planeteers

....the four classical elements – Earth, Fire, Wind, and Water – as well as a fifth element, Heart....

[Guest]

I know its 5/1 but how anyone can back against Leinster at home is a mad man.
They have got sprung by the ospreys a couple of times but think they will really be gunning for the League.
As a connacht supporter id love if they concentrate on Amlin and win it meaning we get heineken cup rugby again.
Can get glasgow +9pts away from home one eye on the Amlin they could push them close no bet fr me though.

Ulster play Scarlets who get hammered last week by Treviso who were fown to 13 men for for 10 minutes but still ran out 41- 17 point winners.
Coinfidence must be very low and the scurge of many a Scarlets team is there pack esp there front five.
However missing for Ulster is John Afoa a huge loss Declan Fitzpatrick is a good layer but Afoa is as good as any tighhead in Europe hes going to be missed.

Ulster at home can be formidable and the handicap of 10 points is about right.
Id fancy them to cover it easy enough with Afoa in the team hes a beast.

Rhys Priestland back at 10 for his first match in 6 months could be a long night with Diack henry and burly Nick williams charging at him at every oppurtunity.
No bet again for me but fancy Ulster to cover the handicap.

[BobSloane]

Captain Planet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain...the_Planeteers

feckin hell I remember watching that when i was a kid. Never knew they had such famous actors doing the villain voices. John Ratzenberger, James Coburn, Martin sheen, Jeff goldblum, meg ryan, sting, Macolm Mcdowell... Plus a good share of famous guest stars and whoopi goldberg as the spirit of the earth

Wtf..? afair it was a load of shit

[shrapnel]

betting with my heart here, but i think 6/1 is too big. Stade francais really want this (and really need it), and leinster are not bothered either way. All they care about is next week (and rightly so).

20 quid for me on SF at 6/1 and
10 on parisse for first tryscorer at 22/1

[The Situation]

No tryscorer today @ 7's.

[KevIRL]

ESPN Fantasy Lions

http://espnscrumgl.fantasyleague.com/Index.aspx

[conspicuous]

Rory Best is 4/1 with Victor and PP to start the first test for the Lions. Now that he's in the squad, his darts are working, he will have a strong lineout team to work with and he beats Hibbard and Youngs for ability and experience, I reckon he has every chance of making the team. I've no doubt he will make a great tourist and while he might be 3rd choice now, he is joining the squad before they depart so he will have every chance to move up the ladder. It's far from unprecedented for late arrival or replacement to make the Lions test team either. Ryan Jones and Tom Croft are 2 names that spring to mind