Originally posted by Donk Magnet
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Also Niall mcnamee is out so on that alone that's Offaly - 4-5 points -
That is pretty far from a full strength Kildare team IMO although I agree that it is pretty strong as one of Kildare's selling points is their strength in depth. McNamee is a huge loss obv but I think 4-5 points might be stretching it a bit.
Think Kildare could probably cover if they all had the spread backed but what's their motivation to drive on when they're 9 points up with 15 minutes to go? Weather is a factor as well, pretty blustery here in Dublin, if it's similar in Port Laoise tomorrow score taking rates are going to suffer.
I'd say have a bet to keep you interested but I wouldn't go steaming into it by any means. In general I've found it's best to avoid these large minus HCs as a rule. BOL regardless.Comment
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Just saw that the line is 9 now so obv the plus side was pretty well supported during the week.Comment
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Just out of interest who would you consider putting in and taking out of the team to make full strength obv dermot early but don't think he's up to it just yet.Originally posted by Keane View Post
Also on the beating the handicap being say 8-10 points up with 15 mins left a lot of this game is to do with rivalry and bragging rights also not to mention going tit for tat with Dublin and wanting to show anything you can do we can do better as I suppose not to be big headed about it but both teams would be expecting to meet in a Leinster final.Comment
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Drop Mcloughlin, Foley to full back, Daryl Flynn and Hugh Lynch at midfield, O'Neill and Eamonn Callaghan into the half forwards, drop Smith and Kavanagh. I also would have had Rob Kelly in there somewhere based on last year's form but he doesn't seem to be on the scene at all this year for reasons unknown to me. Obv Johnston would be pretty close if he gets cleared.Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Post
Nobody seems to think Earley will be capable of being a starter anymore so I wouldn't consider him part of a best 15. Sick panel in fairness.Comment
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Flynn isn't that good tbf and the whole Johnston thing I actually hope he goes back to Cavan I don't agree with the whole mess all that can come from it is some lad that's after been busting his balls to get there being overlooked would hate to see that.Originally posted by Keane View Post
Drop kavanagh? Seriously ?Comment
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Kavanagh is one of the most overrated players in the country IMO. lol @ Flynn not being good.Comment
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I would personally rate flynn as decent enough but tbh I think we have better options.Originally posted by Keane View PostComment
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08-03 to Kildare @ h/t with Offaly not scoring since abt the 7th min.Comment
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clare v waterford davyfitz quote lol
caught on tv....
davy fitz to eoin kelly who was needling him
"i've a few all-ireland's, you have fuck all'.....classicComment
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WINNER WINNER GET IN THE LINE UP THE deiseComment
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Right folks, just a heads up..there's a Kerry c/ship game on sat night between St Brendans and St Michaels Foilmore that I think has been priced totally incorrect...
William Hills have Brendans @ evens..I can't see them losing myself and have been talking to several people involved with both teams this week who didn't disagree. This is one of those ones where I've really had to restrain myself from lumping huge on it. I honestly don't know how they have priced it evens. Brendans are at home, the other team were hockeyed last week (by Dr Crokes, best team in Kerry to be fair), have at least 5 lads gone for the summer and another 3/4 injured...
Could be famous last words, but I'm recommending lumpage!"Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..ECComment
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I can't add a whole lot to this except to say that I've heard similarly that this is a sizeable misprice from what I would assume are a separate group of people.Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post
Several of the Brendan's players have supposedly lumped on themselves as well FWIW. I'll probably take a little but don't know enough about it to steam in. BOL to anyone who does.Comment
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lol, nvm WH capped me at 100 quid anyway
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I emailed them about that aswell giving out. I'd say they just don't take too much exposure on GAA...like you say though, this is a big mis-price, love to know how they came to these odds! Ah well, we'll take whats on offer I guess.Originally posted by Keane View Postlol, nvm WH capped me at 100 quid anyway
FWIW Keano, I also have a Rathmore/Brendans double, worth a little bit. Rathmore are solid out and Mid Kerry are a mess.
Edit: LOL, just emailed by a mate, betting on the Brendans game now "suspended" apparently on Hills! Word must be out!"Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..ECComment
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Would only take three or four people from here trying to get a couple of hundred on each to get them to suspend that, they're a joke of a bookmaker IMHO.Comment
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KK v Dublin at Portlaoise. I think that Dublin could give KK a right old rattle here, KK are a bit more vunerable outside of the wide open spaces of Croker, also Dublin's physicality is up there with KK and they have finally gotten a goalscoring threat. Just how serious Cody is taking them is shown by him recalling King Henry. Dublin are +6 on the handicap (5/6) and I'll be taking this, also like +3 in the alternative handicap (7/4). Even think the 4/1 price on the win is on the big side, so worth a small bet for that
Cork v Tipp. This is on in Cork, which is a good advantage for Cork, however Tipp have a game behind them and that will have helped them a lot. They have a lot of strength in depth also, I'd fancy them to take it in the end, pulling away in the second part of the second half. They are -1 in the handicap (10/11) and will be snapping this up, also a bit on -3 (6/4) in the alt handicap
Of the other 2 games, its very hard to see any upsets, but Westmeath could get closer to Wexford than the handicap suggests. So Westmeath +9 (5/6) and perhaps +6 (9/5) on the alt handicap. Limerick and Laois is a no bet. Limerick can be notoriosly unreliable in the qualifiers, and wouldnt be too confident of them in a 14 points spread even against a Laois team in bits at senior (although showing some shoots of recovery at u-21).
The bad weather expected this weekend could narrow the scoring in any of the games above also, worth bearing in mind if backing the fav on a big handicap.
Finally, a note to point out how crazy it is and unfair that Westmeath and Laois play in the preliminary round of the qualifiers while the teams they beat in Leinster (Antrim and Carlow) get a bye to round 1. Nuts.Comment
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Monaghan look a decent price tomorrow against Down, available @3.3 on betfair ATM. Might be tainted by my loathing of Down footballers tho, anyone else think monaghan are the value?Low fee Euro/UK money transfer, 1st transfer free through my referral
https://transferwise.com/u/bfa0eComment
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Let me know result here pls. Hopefully recoup some of mon from Dublin +. They were good for bout 4mins. Kk some team.Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View PostComment
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Please take with large pinch of salt.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
They are very physical very big team last year looked very tired and had many injuries.
Kerry have not replaced Darragh o Se who was massive for them but can never rule them out a good run of games in the qualifiers and can seem them in a final.
Dublin after years of underacheivement won sam dont do favourites well and winning 2 years in a row going to be tough.
other contenders dont look great besides Kildare and Donegal cant see anyone else challenging for top honoursComment
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Strike 2 Kev. Wexford and Limerick hammer Westmeath and Laois respectively.Originally posted by KevIRL View Post
Not a good day for hurling, 3 hammerings dished out in the 3 games, hopefully tomorrows game will be much betterComment
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Looks like St Brendans lost by a point, ty to William Hill for saving me money.Comment
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you will get four wrong from four,sry kev.Comment
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Yeah probably a good idea alright, I'm pretty sure they lost.Originally posted by shano_88 View PostComment
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for me its between dublin and cork this year (wayhay) and i dont think there is much between them. if anything i feel dublin have more potential improvement than cork, less injury concerns, a better defence than cork, confidence and a bit of maturity i dont go along with them not having the same appetite this year now that they won it last year. i dont like they way cork play alot of their games in patches and for me dublin are a more reliable to put in the full 75 min shift come the day.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
oddswise i think the 5/2 is about right for cork. i mean they can probably field best 15 in the country when all are fit but they rarely have their best 15 injury free so that for me would be the biggest why not.
the second biggest why not is some of their snior players are definitely not what they used to be and will be found out in a big game soon. graham canty being the obvious one, great player but his pace and coordination are deteriorating rapidly it seems.
fwiw, i think there is a spot of value in dublin at 7/2 as i think they are better than last year in fact and dont go along with them not wearing fav tags well.
they are a pretty ferocious outfit and they will not give an inch to any team in the country.
so dublin represent the best 'value' at the prices but dont let me put you off cork at 5/2 because they are a fabulous team that has underachieved and are well capable and overdue to lift sam and i have come across some alot worse 5/2 bets in my dayLast edited by bustamoves; 24-06-12, 00:01.Comment
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I agree they are the value today @ that price, Would have thought in or around 6/4 for a Monaghan win is the right price...Originally posted by mocata View Post
Based on that I have 2 back them but my main bet will be on the HC...."the impossible is often untried"Comment
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This year thats correct in hurling and football.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak
football semis this year are
Munster v Ulster
Leinster v Connacht
Obv if a provincial champion is beat in the QF then the team who beats them takes their place in the SF, but your original query would still be true anywayComment
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Dublin to beat Wexford @1/8
Kildare to beat Meath @1/3
Wicklow to beat Waterford @1/3.
This Treble works out @ even money, I'm gonna lump.Comment
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Thought I'd be coming on here today to apologise to a few people (I called the game wrong to be fair) but for some reason the good people at Hills decided to pay out on a win even though the game finished level! Someone, somewhere will be getting the sack today I reckon!Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post"Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..ECComment
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clare are 6/5 with paddypowers v dublin 4/5.are dey gone mad in paddies????????????????????Comment
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live on edge and throw in longford youll get 2.31/1Originally posted by JohnOB View Postairport, lolComment
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no, they certainly are not. just because they were dreadful last weekend doesnt mean they will be equally dreadful next weekend. dublin hurlers are alot better than what they showed last weekend and if you read into that result too much you could get badly burnt. that said clare have a great chance and 6/5 is tempting. dublin gave up last weekend and that was that, it doesnt mean they are suddenly shite again.Originally posted by terryl View Post
i dont have any info or connections to dublin scene but i would love to know what way the players would have reacted to anthony daly's comments afttwards. the 'rounding up any 15 at the red cow' could be taken as an insult to some of the team. i mean i would find that a little offensive and derisive but again i've no idea what the general reaction was/is.
i get the feeling AD is almost in a resignation mood tbh. if that is so and there is any tension in the camp i'd definitely put money on clare at 6/5.
if not, and they are united and wanting to redeem themselves i dont see why they shouldnt be priced up at 4/5 on overall recent form and talent? why not?Comment
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No such luck for me. I did bet on paddy. They had it pending all day yesterday but a looser today.Originally posted by ciarraithuaidh View Post
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mr daly was right,he should have rang the laois county board and asked could he use there subs for the match.it was like watching a senior team play a junior c team.having said that i do think dublin have a chance this year.............................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..............................................in the ROSE OF TRALEEComment
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How would you price it up mate? Clare have shown nothing in the last few years and although we look like we are coming this year its def a work in progress. Clare were hungry but naive and ultimatly outfoxed against waterford. They could well beat Dublin but the price is right imo.Originally posted by terryl View PostComment
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I just think clare are a great price at 6/5.prob have it 4/6 clare 5/4dub 2b honest.Comment
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I'l be getting on Clare... Cusack Park is a bit of a fortressComment
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Ya Clare could well do it but I think Dublin have to be favs.Comment
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Westmeath have to be backed against louth tomorrow price has gone from 4/9 to 4/11, but handicap is 2 points at 10/11 this a wrong spread imo. Louth are short there 2 midfielders 1 of which is by far there best player paddy keanen, they are also short 5 or 6 more regulars through guys leaving for states and australia and recent injuries, training was called of last week because only 9 players showed and most were fringe players.Westmeath should have beat them earlyer in leinster only for a last second goal for louth. The 4/9 went yesterday and the handicap was 1/1 yesterday now 10/11.location green and yellow stretford endComment
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i think kildare -4 (11/10) + dublin-6 (5/6) has got to be looked upComment
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Limerick -12 at evs on boyles atm is a must back imo (its 4/6 on paddy). We are in turmoil atm with manager walking then coming in on board again as a selector under the new management only to be sacked again a week later. The stand in manager was in the process of picking a panel again no less than two weeks ago. And the focus on this game just seems to be a 'get it out of the way' approach. I am in for quite a bit on the -12 and i can see limerick winning this won by 20plus points quite easily. They put us away with ease at home earlier in the year in the league, when we were meant to be going quite well so i cant see anything changing here.Comment
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I think dublin are capable of going out and beating wexford with ease. With kildare/meath i can see it been alot closer than u might think kildare are 1/3 and i dont think they are 1/3 shot, Meath are coming of the back of a good run out against carlow and look as if they have something to prove and i would say they will be closer than 4 points at the final whistle.Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Postlocation green and yellow stretford endComment
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4 points is pretty close to the correct line@2.0. Should probably be ever so slightly lower, so -4 @ 2.1 is +EV but not by a whole lot IMO.Originally posted by Donk Magnet View Post
Dublin game I'm not going near because if I went with what I think I'd have Wexford +7 as the biggest bet of my life so I'm obv missing something.Comment
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How is the line set in games that all bookies are synced?
/noobComment
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I think the correct prices here are 10/11 Meath 7/1 Draw 7/4 KildareOriginally posted by Donk Magnet View Post
I'll be laying the shit out of the LilliesComment
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I'm going out on a limb here and saying that is a lol-bad pricing. I have lumped on a Kildare -2/Dubs -4 double @evens.Originally posted by Arazi View Post
Donegal v Tyrone is one I'm staying away from..but can't wait to watch..Harte of all managers will have a plan to counteract Donegal. Wouldn't rule out a draw here.
I think Derry will beat Longford, Westmeath, Laois, Armagh, Wicklow will all win. The rest are somewhat random. Probably Tipp, Fermanagh and Antrim wins though.
Kildare, Dubs, Armagh, Westmeath, Wicklow @3.2/1 for a little chancer!"Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..ECComment
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No you're not ur just being an arsehole really. What are your prices and justify them with analysis please.Comment
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here are my bets for weekend GAA football
kildare v meath
feeling this could turn nasty....for meath and something tells me kildare are going to put up a big score and end up hammering meath by somewhere around 10 points, so i'm dutching across winning margins 5-12 point victory for
kildare which returns 2.71/1
1pt dutch bet winning margin 5-12 points 2.7/1
bantee to resign immediately after the game
1 pt (8/1 paddypowers)
longford v derry
have to fancy longford in this one going on what we've seen so far from both sides. quite like the cut of longford this year. derry are an unknown quantity really. i mean they were so bad vs donegal that it was almost like they threw the match and a different team could turn up next weekend. how so and ever, gotta keep the faith.
1pt longford win 10/11
donegal vs tyrone.
donegal are better in my opinion. i expect things to revert to type a bit though and donegal to put in a dog eat dog opening half of defend for life. somehow i think they'll also breed confidence after the derry game and so i think they can win this from the front. inch ahead in the first half and hold. so the 9/4 about donegal/donegal is too tempting and so i'm taking that.
i think cavanagh is a huge loss to tyrone btw and if hhe was playing it would change my view on this game.
the view is that both teams are more attacking now and overs have been tipped for total points. again because i think things will revert to type i'm expecting lower than average totals so unders for me
-28.5 points 1pt paddy power
dublin vs wexford
dublin are far superior and i think they will have the close calls with wexford in previous meetings on their minds so again i expect a strong start and strong finish and expect them to go about it in a professional way. i.e. take points early, build a lead and finish it out. by this i mean they wont be go for goals in first half.
because the handicap looks a little risky i'm going for goals market
dublin under 1.5, 1pt 5/6
wexford under .5, 1pt 11/10
handicap draw dublin -7, 0.25pt 10/1
tipperary vs offaly
tipp -2 5/4
roscommon v armagh
armagh should win and (would eat them alive if they had to but...i'd prefer if it was crossmaglen playing them on their own and i'd have my money on but something tells me this armagh side have a missing ingredient that makes them vulnerable) everybody is writing roscommon off but i
think armagh could be over confident andthis one that could spring a surprise over the weekend.
roscommon +4 evens
antrim vs london
london +4
1pt evens
westmeath vs louth
westmeath 1pt 4/9
expect a bad game from 2 bad sides
so under 31.5 points 1pt 4/5
galway minors vs roscommon
1pt galway 6/4Last edited by bustamoves; 30-06-12, 05:42. Reason: bantee resignation is a joke though i'd like to get a quote on it if poss!!Comment
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