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**RBBlogger** · 25-05-10, 20:24

Tuesdays Analysis

I may as well keep a lessons learnt journal here to try and avoid repeating problems here. Plus it might help other punters help find angles they often overlook when having a bet.

All four lost today. I basically should have avoided the all weather race as there were 5 horses in that race with a but too much unknowns about them, and one of them won it.

As for the Huntingdon race, Launde was a tad optimistic . he is a seasonal horse and his time is Feb - April and considering he was nt performing even in those months meant this wasn't a clever bet and something is clearly not right with the horse.

Sarahs art looks like she had every chance to win the race but the stats of 0 wins, 3 places from 12 attempts going right handed may have something to say here. Again, I know this is after timing but i could have gotten away from betting on this race too.

**The C Kid** · 25-05-10, 20:26

Good luck with this, looks interesting.

How are you picking you races that you expect pace in? Just on front-runners, or speed figures, or sectionals?

**RBBlogger** · 25-05-10, 20:52

C Kid, Im using pace notes but I also use 3 different resources when making shortlists that i would rather not publish here. Final say is of course the Racing Post Pace notes.

I am a bit rusty as i havent bet much since Oct last bar the big festivals.

Im trying to develop my knowledge of pre determining the shape of a race by past pace notes. 99% of punter couldnt tell you if there is going to be a fast race run or a slow tactical one.

Races with pace Im concentrating on Class.
Races with no pace, if i had to bet i would be concentrating on Speed and Connections but usually i would avoid

**RBBlogger** · 25-05-10, 22:23

Wednesdays action

One race with guaranteed pace I'm betting in tomorrow is 2.40 in Ayr

Short list is
MY GACHO
CELTIC SULTAN
SHE`S IN THE MONEY

Im backing all three with my weighting towards My Guacho and Celtic Sultan. Looks like the betting public are backing Northern Fling with fallon on board. That horse is a hold up horse and he has been finishing strongly in its past two races but i think his 0/4 record at Ayr at 0/3 for trip makes him easily opposable.

Other race with pace i identified was the 4.35 in sedgefield but its too competitive to make a definite bet, but if pushed i'd back Symphonica and Border Tale

Current bank: €960

**OutFlank** · 25-05-10, 22:36

whats the opinion on the place only market?

**TommyGunne** · 25-05-10, 22:47

This is very interesting. Is it possible to validate your theory against past data? Probably very difficult to do, but I guess worthwhile.

What criterion do you use in picking the "class" horse when you have identified a race that will be truly run?

**RBBlogger** · 26-05-10, 00:42

Outflank, i'm still trying to figure out how to best use the place market.

tommygunne, the theory is solid in my opinion but i'm too lazy to back test over past data, hence the small €10 per point bets over the next 60 days. It will make or break it.

As I only deal with 4 yr+ plus handicaps, there is plenty form to go on, so its easy to spot if a horse can win in a certain 'class' race or not. Therefore i like to shortlist the horses who have proven themselves in the similiar class to the current race and are well treated by the handicapper. I don't like backing hold up horses as too many things can go wrong in a race so I prefer horses who race prominently up with the pace.

The idea is to find a horse who is coming into form, proven in class race (or unexposed progressive type) and well treated for the class of race it is entered in.

Coming into form can be figured out by breaking it down into two things
1. Watching races to spot the other horses other than the winner and see which kept on or travelling well or use the in running comments to spot horses who stayed on, ran on, kept on, finished well etc in the final couple of furlongs
2. Pattern horses - Seasonal patterns, a horse may be 0/5 in March but come April when he sheds his winter coat he is 2/2, or horses who preform better after a break , horses who preform in small fields, horse who dont travel well, only suited to stiff tracks etc. these are the horse whose form figures read 058930152081 and once you are able to decipher when it has its ideal conditions, its form figures read like 3121.

Now i subscribe to different ratings and spreadsheets and what not to reduce the amount of time needed to figure all this stuff out and in all honestly you'd need to be putting in 80-100 hours a week to really make horse racing pay so this is only a hobby for me and i am trialling the pace of a race angle to see if its worthwhile. So bear with me!

**TommyGunne** · 26-05-10, 01:44

Thats really interesting stuff. I'd very much like to put a lot of work into that sort of stuff, but I'd be very much into data, and just don't have the time to put the groundwork in. Really interesting to see how this works out for you.

Haven't seen you play in a while though, you're obv putting time into stuff like this!

**RBBlogger** · 26-05-10, 09:33

I take mondays and tuesdays off from that site tommy as worst days of the week to play there imo, but im grinding up a roll on another site as well so have no fear i wont be getting stale when i tangle with you next ;-)

**RBBlogger** · 26-05-10, 19:45

Wednesdays analysis

Ok, not too disappointed with todays result. as you will see from my post last night I discounted Northern Fling for the wrong reasons. I contradicted myself in my reasoning to oppose him

I said that it had finished strongly in its last two races but then I went on to say that he is 0/3 at 7 furlongs. these two statements don't add up. If he is finishing strongly in races, after being held up, this must mean that he has not being produced on time (or on purpose?) or ran into trouble. The booking of Fallon (a hold up horse specialist) was the other indicator of the trainers intentions. The 0/4 at Ayr can be discounted as horse has won on galloping tracks before

So piecing it all together, we have a guaranteed fast pace race and a hold up horse who has been noted as finishing strongly in its last two races, who now has a specialist hold up jockey on board and is being gambled on heavily (9k and 4.5 k bets i see recorded on sporting life)

Ok so bank now stands at €930

On a side note, i saw My guacho at 1.92 on the place market so i did 90 at that price. It then went out to evens about 30 mins later before the off so i took another 75 as i just could not see it being outside the top 3 ( I was convinced it was going to win to be honest). These side bets are separate to my main bank above. The price was too good to turn down

**RBBlogger** · 26-05-10, 23:36

Thursday

None for thursday

**RBBlogger** · 28-05-10, 00:02

Fridays Action

A few good pace races for Friday

Brighton 4.15
DHANIA
STANLEY RIGBY
IF I HAD HIM
No bet if Rosie Dawn a non runner and €30 dutched weighted towards Dhania

Haydock 8.10
KAZBOW
MY MATE MAX
LOCUM
€30 dutched weighted in the order above

Newmarket 4.40
MARTYR
SHERMAN MCCOY
SPIRIT IS NEEDED

€30 dutched weighted towards Martyr - Pattern horse and best treated of the three

Pontefract 6.30
HARRIET'S GIRL
VERY WELL RED
CHIEF RED CLOUD
€30 dutched equally weighted, No bet if NEGOTIATION a non runner

Stratford 7.50
PETITE MARGOT
DUSTY DANE
€10 euro win each

**GingerMilla** · 28-05-10, 01:21

I'm keeping a watchful eye on your endeavours here,RB, as any ploy thought up to beat the bookies is of obvious interest to us punters. My opinion is that you should be more selective on the quality of racing you're basing the selections on, because its hard to imagine very many could be making a profit on the poor standard horseracing fare on offer this week. Irrespective of finding a race with pace and the 'class' horse who has conditions in its favour it's still the bottom end of the scale and there are so many variables involved also. Anyway hope it goes well for you.

You've obviously been interested in racing for a while and I'd very much like if you could offer me an opinion on a horse commencing in handicap company next Sunday at Newmarket. I know you're concentrating on 4yo+ handicaps and this is a lightly raced 3yo called Florentine Ruler (trained by Henry Cecil) who won his maiden two weeks ago at ripon (bolted in like a good thing), but I'm no specialist on handicaps and don't know how to compare relevant form here. What I do know is that I think this horse is a cut above average. If you get a chance can you take a look. Would appreciate any feedback.

**eagle eye** · 28-05-10, 02:15

Only seen this now, I'm going to be following it too. Best of luck RB.

**ONE TIME** · 28-05-10, 03:31

Originally posted by eagle eye View Post

Only seen this now, I'm going to be following it too. Best of luck RB.

just seen this now gl with it
looking forward to following how you get on

**RBBlogger** · 28-05-10, 09:26

thanks for all your best wishes lads.
Loose cannon, i'll have a look at that horse on sat evening for you and i'll see if theres anything glarily obvious (negative or positive about the horse). However Im not the best judge of 3 yr old handicaps, as the amount of improvement these horse can make from race to race can be huge.

Also LC, I am including lower graded races for this trail period to see how i get on. After 60 days I will be in better position to know what grade races to include/exclude. I still believe though that if you can find a race with guranteed pace no matter what grade, you can strike a line through half the field straight away and that is a great starting point for finding a winner in any race.. Time will tell if im talking through my arse though

**RBBlogger** · 28-05-10, 20:03

Fridays Analysis

Today was a pretty decent day.
heres the returns in my betfair account per race. I took prices last night so may differ to returned betfair SP
4.15 - 20
4.40 +39.78
6.30 +15.24
7.50 +137.89
8.10 +18.77

Profit for day €191.68 (19 points)
Current Bank 1121.68

Nearly a clean sweep and i am annoyed i missed Free Falling in the 4.15. I disregarded him too quickly without first having a concrete reason to. However I think If i had shortlisted him i would have ended up avoiding the race as i would have to dutch 4 horses and not sure if my return on investment would have been good enough. I tend to want at least 40% ROI on any of my dutch bets.

**JackBurton** · 29-05-10, 00:28

Hi loose cannon, bit of a newbie posting on this forum bit hope to start posting regularly from now on.

Had a look at that cecil horse u were on about and for what its worth ill give ya my opinion.

Lets start with his maiden win. Granted he was visually impressive, i would be very wary of reading to much into the manner of his win. There was 10 in the race with half the field 33s or bigger and although the pace was ok during the race, all bar the top 2 were beaten out of sight fully 3 out. All this implies it was a fairly poor maiden with the only piece of worthwhile form on offer being the runner up Rasselas who got to with 4 and half lengths of Elusive pimpernal on his racecourse debut last year. But since then he has done nothing much. That is the only piece of form in the whole race, everything else is pretty mediocre.

Now to the horse himself, he is a medicean colt with plenty of stamina on the dams side also so he should improve as he inevitably steps up in trip from his 1m 1f maiden win. Because of the margin of success of that win he has been given a mark of 84. now i have no stats on the success of horses first time in a handicap rated 80+ but personally im always out to oppose these types making their handicap debuts. You really have to be pretty smart to win off that kind of mark. Also the horse has no pattern race entries at all which i would consider as a bit of a negative, thats not to say he wont end up running in one by the end of the season but if he was going to be something above average he would most likely have at least one or two pattern entries.

And to finish with, the race itself in which he is entered. The first thing that really puts me off is that cecils stable jockey Queally is on the stablemate. Now there quite possibly is an outside reason (queally knows owner, etc) as to why he doesnt ride Florentine Ruler but it is still off putting, for me anyway. Now the fact that the race is at Newmarket would lead u to believe its going to be quite a hot handicap and thats exactly what it is, big stables with unexposed winners all around. Gosden has one in it and is trying to win the race for the 3rd year in a row also. This will be just an absolute world away from that facile ripon maiden win.

Now having said all this the horse could easily go and bolt in and be a very good beast
but i learned quite early on in my betting career about following these types of horses first time up in handicaps and in the long run i think it s better to leave these types alone. But as always the price should have a large part to play in whether it's worth a bet or not. I think he'll be a price that you might consider value but i probably wont. Anyway whatever u decide good luck.
Fuck sake have i rambled that long...........

**Guest** · 29-05-10, 00:44

You know what ol' Jack Burton always says when he doesn't fancy a horse first time up in handicap?

Quite a lot

nice post fella, keep em coming!

you do remind me why I don't do horses, to do it right is a lot of work

**JackBurton** · 29-05-10, 01:07

Sure dont ya know he'll dot up now, win at royal ascot, take down the king george, slaughter the irish champion stakes and finish with a quickfire arc/breeders cup double. then he'll......... no i cant do anymore or it will start getting unrealistic.....

**RBBlogger** · 29-05-10, 01:30

Very Nice Analysis Jack. Id have to do a lot of research to answer that detailed thats for sure:-)

I found on a few races with pace tomorrow.
Bev 2.40
KING OF THE MOORS €10 win

Bev 3.10
CELTIC LYNN & INDIAN SKIPPER €10 win on each

Catt 2.55
HOBSON
SALEROSA
RIO COBOLO
SMALLJOHN
€40 dutched weighted all towards Hobson

I have two more national hunt races to go through which i shall do tomorrow.

**GingerMilla** · 29-05-10, 02:11

Originally posted by JackBurton View Post

Hi loose cannon, bit of a newbie posting on this forum bit hope to start posting regularly from now on.

Had a look at that cecil horse u were on about and for what its worth ill give ya my opinion.

Lets start with his maiden win. Granted he was visually impressive, i would be very wary of reading to much into the manner of his win. There was 10 in the race with half the field 33s or bigger and although the pace was ok during the race, all bar the top 2 were beaten out of sight fully 3 out. All this implies it was a fairly poor maiden with the only piece of worthwhile form on offer being the runner up Rasselas who got to with 4 and half lengths of Elusive pimpernal on his racecourse debut last year. But since then he has done nothing much. That is the only piece of form in the whole race, everything else is pretty mediocre.

Now to the horse himself, he is a medicean colt with plenty of stamina on the dams side also so he should improve as he inevitably steps up in trip from his 1m 1f maiden win. Because of the margin of success of that win he has been given a mark of 84. now i have no stats on the success of horses first time in a handicap rated 80+ but personally im always out to oppose these types making their handicap debuts. You really have to be pretty smart to win off that kind of mark. Also the horse has no pattern race entries at all which i would consider as a bit of a negative, thats not to say he wont end up running in one by the end of the season but if he was going to be something above average he would most likely have at least one or two pattern entries.

And to finish with, the race itself in which he is entered. The first thing that really puts me off is that cecils stable jockey Queally is on the stablemate. Now there quite possibly is an outside reason (queally knows owner, etc) as to why he doesnt ride Florentine Ruler but it is still off putting, for me anyway. Now the fact that the race is at Newmarket would lead u to believe its going to be quite a hot handicap and thats exactly what it is, big stables with unexposed winners all around. Gosden has one in it and is trying to win the race for the 3rd year in a row also. This will be just an absolute world away from that facile ripon maiden win.

Now having said all this the horse could easily go and bolt in and be a very good beast
but i learned quite early on in my betting career about following these types of horses first time up in handicaps and in the long run i think it s better to leave these types alone. But as always the price should have a large part to play in whether it's worth a bet or not. I think he'll be a price that you might consider value but i probably wont. Anyway whatever u decide good luck.
Fuck sake have i rambled that long...........

Thanks very much, Jack, for taking the trouble to have a good look at this. Its an excellent analysis. The upcoming race on Sunday might be one to just watch. Strange that Cecil has two in the race.

**Aya14** · 29-05-10, 02:23

Just spotted this thread now, will follow this with interest.
Horse racing has broken my heart over the years trying to beat it. I am still only a small winner to this day.

Nice write up Jack

**RBBlogger** · 29-05-10, 15:35

Saturday Extras

Late addition to Beverly. My radar was off but think i have it sorted for this race
Ninth House
Shadowtime
Flying Silks

Equal weighting €30 dutch

**RBBlogger** · 29-05-10, 16:13

Saturday NH extras

Stratford 5.50
This is quite a competitive race and one I could easily avoid as i dont think the value is there. However, we can make some value in this race, see below for explanation.

Selections
DISHDASHA
BORDER CASTLE

Tiger O Toole is the favourite and can be discounted because of the bounce factor. his record from coming back to the track within 14 days is 0-1-5, and within 7 is 0-0-2.

So if you really wanted to make a few plays on this race and gain some value, I would back Border Castle at 14's before the off and trade him in running as he will shorten as he races prominently and green up. Take the 5.1 on Dishdasha now but also take higher in running as he is a hold up horse and likes some cover so his odds should lengthen to about 8 I'm hoping. And finally lay Tiger O toole to lose in the win market currently at 4.3. Also back Dishdasha and Border castle in a reverse forecast

**RBBlogger** · 29-05-10, 17:15

Saturdays Lessons

-€50 today, Bank now €1071

Lessons learnt today are
1. Beverly is a horses for courses track, so extra emphasis on course winners or horse who have proven record on stiff tracks
2. Evan Williams noted for future reference as a gambling stable
3. If I think a race is very competitive then try and stay disciplined and avoid race.

**RBBlogger** · 30-05-10, 01:22

Florentine Ruler

Loose cannon, I had a quick look over this race. On previous race form, 7 of the 9 horses have some chance of winning this race. Of the two Cecil horses, Mouse Moran just about shades it. He has better sire going stats, equal Sire distance stats and much better sire course stats than Florentine Ruler. I wouldnt read into the jockey thing too much as Quelly has always ridden Mouse Moran and i presume he had the choice and im sure it was a tough one.

Mouse Moran also has better speed figures from two reputable sources i use and basically they state Moran is the leading contender for this race(not by much).

It looks like Caldercruix will dictate the pace of the race so it should be truly run. Definitely an interesting race to watch and not bet.

**RBBlogger** · 30-05-10, 13:29

Sundays Pace races

5 races spotted today, here are the first two

Font 3.00
THERE'S NO PANIC
BOLTON HALL
THEHONOURABLELADY
€30 equally weighted dutch bet

Font 3.35
OVERTON LAD
BOARDROOM DANCER
MONSIEUR GEORGES
€10 win on first two and saver bet on last one to insure no loss should this fella win.

More to come as the afternoon progresses

**RBBlogger** · 30-05-10, 14:29

More Sundays Selections

Only 1 more bet as the 4.05 and the 5.40 are too competitive to get involved.

Fontwell 4.50
SPACE COWBOY
POST IT

€17 win on first horse and €3 win on second as a saver bet

This race stands out as the most uncompetitive race i have analysed since i started this thread. However after i called a race totally wrong yesterday, i dont really want to say that 100% this is a banker but lets just say if I get the winner of the 3.35 right then my radar is on for Fontwell today and then i would be very confident of Space Cowboy winning and i will be lumping on any price as low as 2/1

3.35 race just in, so not lumping on this race, just playing as stated above

**RBBlogger** · 30-05-10, 16:26

Sundays Post race analysis

No winners today so my Betfair account shows -€62.21. Bank nows stands around €1009

Today, if i had to do it all again I would pick the same horses so unsure of the lessons i have learned. I suppose i'll just put it down to variance.

**RBBlogger** · 31-05-10, 23:35

None for Tuesday

3 pace races for Tuesday but too hard to call. Too many races for bank holiday monday in UK so didnt have time to study.

**RBBlogger** · 02-06-10, 00:18

Wednesdays action

Nothing again for wed day races, may have something for evening

**RBBlogger** · 02-06-10, 19:10

Wednesday extra

Ripon 9.10
SMUGGLERS BAY

This race is particularly weak but this horse is in great form and hopefully can turn around his bad record of only 1 win in 21.

**RBBlogger** · 03-06-10, 21:48

Fridays bets

Time contraints mean not much analysis can be done tonight.
One race i do like is the 8.00 in bath but no real value there. If the prices change during the day tomorrow I will be dutching Sunny Future and Aestival

**RBBlogger** · 05-06-10, 12:59

Saturdays plays

Current Bank is €999. I have to admit my head is fried today. I have identified 10 races with decent pace in them today and after analysing the first 6 I cannot find a a decent bet.

the 7th race i looked at is Worcester 3.35.
I like
Rajeh & Tobago Bay but im worried about McCoys mount Son of Flicka. We can discount his last run as it was on a right handed stiff course whereas this one is lefthanded and galloping. he is 3-5-12 on left handed courses so i might put him in as saver bet with t he two above

I am dutching the first two equally weighted to €20 and small saver on mccoys mount.

Im going to take a break and see if the last three hold any opportunities later. I must admit i find sat the hardest day to find a winner

I also have a few place bets on today but not part of this bank

**RBBlogger** · 05-06-10, 15:00

more

Worcester 5.10
Loita Hills
Franchoek

€20 dutch with strong weighting towards Loita Hills. Very weak race here and other horse with good form Tyup Pompey is 0-0-5 on left handed courses so Im discounting

**RBBlogger** · 07-06-10, 12:38

Mondays racing

Today looks interesting. 4 pace races, 1 is unreal competitive and the final one is competitive but the booking of Kieran Fallon has made this a bet for me. Anyways here they are

Folkstone 3.15
THE NAME IS FRANK
BOLLYWOOD STYLE

€20 weighted towards top rated

Pont 7.15
SPIDERS STAR
MISS KECK
SHORE THING

€30 equal weighting

Windsor 8.30
FRENCH ART
€10 win

Last week hasnt been great. Every race I looked at was too competitive. I could only narrow the shortlist to 6 or so which is very frustrating. I think that was the reason i gave up gambling in the first place. The discipline required is hard. In comparison to Poker where your decision making gives instant results. Or if you are sitting at a tough table, all you have to do is sit up and go find a better one.

**RBBlogger** · 12-06-10, 13:36

Saturdays pace races

My first bet of this week. Just dont have the time any more to do full analysis during the week.

Hex 4.10
HASPER
GINGER'S LAD
CLUELESS

€30 dutch equal weighting

Leicster 5.00
CORNUS
NAMIR
SCHOOLBOY CHAMP

€30 dutch equal weighting

Leicster 6.00
ARABIAN PEARL
FLOWING CAPE
LEARO DOCHAIS -saver

dutch with Learo as a saver

**Angry-Ball** · 12-06-10, 16:20

i just spotted this thread now, not that it will make one bit of blind difference to me as i just don't go near the gee gee's save for a few punts at cheltenham.

but you are after putting in some effort here
hope it works out for ya

**RBBlogger** · 15-06-10, 18:55

Update

Sorry for lack of posts lately but I have a free gaff this month which means all my spare time has been devoted to grinding poker while I am distraction free.

However I will still be doing pace analysis on Saturdays and Sundays.

I was also thinking about posting my daily place market bets here however its not very professionally minded as i uses a loss recovery method which most professional gamblers will cringe at.
My strike rate is high though so I can sleep easily with it in my opinion.

**RBBlogger** · 15-06-10, 18:58

2nd and unplaced
Bank 979

**RBBlogger** · 15-06-10, 18:59

Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post

Today looks interesting. 4 pace races, 1 is unreal competitive and the final one is competitive but the booking of Kieran Fallon has made this a bet for me. Anyways here they are

Folkstone 3.15
THE NAME IS FRANK
BOLLYWOOD STYLE

€20 weighted towards top rated

Pont 7.15
SPIDERS STAR
MISS KECK
SHORE THING

€30 equal weighting

Windsor 8.30
FRENCH ART
€10 win

Last week hasnt been great. Every race I looked at was too competitive. I could only narrow the shortlist to 6 or so which is very frustrating. I think that was the reason i gave up gambling in the first place. The discipline required is hard. In comparison to Poker where your decision making gives instant results. Or if you are sitting at a tough table, all you have to do is sit up and go find a better one.

2nd
1st
UP

Bank 979

**RBBlogger** · 15-06-10, 19:05

Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post

My first bet of this week. Just dont have the time any more to do full analysis during the week.

Hex 4.10
HASPER
GINGER'S LAD
CLUELESS

€30 dutch equal weighting

Leicster 5.00
CORNUS
NAMIR
SCHOOLBOY CHAMP

€30 dutch equal weighting

Leicster 6.00
ARABIAN PEARL
FLOWING CAPE
LEARO DOCHAIS -saver

dutch with Learo as a saver

2nd, 3rd
UP
1st

Bank 949

**RBBlogger** · 16-06-10, 23:10

Thurs Place bets

all these I am backing to place given ok odds. They all have great chances to win but I m just looking for small daily gains so sticking to place market for time being.

Bev 700 Summer Dancer
Leic 740 Mandurrah & Solemn if price allows
810 Cape Melody
War3.35 Iguacu

**TommyGunne** · 17-06-10, 02:45

Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post

I was also thinking about posting my daily place market bets here however its not very professionally minded as i uses a loss recovery method which most professional gamblers will cringe at.

Haven't been grinding BF myself for a while so haven't seen you, but what do you mean by a loss recovery method? Please say its not a martingale???!!!!!

**RBBlogger** · 17-06-10, 09:37

Hi TG, I was back on Betfair last night after a month playing on another site and the games are getting tougher(still beatable imo) but less fish at the table.

Loss recovery. My strike rate was 60% which means longest losing run is mathematically 4(dont have s/s with me but pm me if you want it and will send it later). therefore I will try and win a certain fixed amount, lets say 50. If I dont win it on first selection which has a price of 2.0, and the next horse is 3.0 on the place market I now want to win 50 plus the stake on the first horse back, so i need to win 100 ->I put €50 on second horse to place at 3.0 and so on until horse wins and i start again at a stake of 50. Of course I stop automatically If I have 5 losers in a row and start crying and go back to the beginning again :-)

I've only had to go 4 bets once so far in the past 2 months. however i need to update my results to see what my revised strike rate is now and therefore my new Longest Losing Run probability

**OutFlank** · 17-06-10, 14:21

you know yourself that 'martingale' or 'loss recovery method' is just another way of saying fuck this im putting in all this work and not getting the immediate payback i think i deserve... lets gamble bigger. its the quickest way to the poorhouse. if you have faith in your system take a much longer term view and in the short term just enjoy doing what you obviously have a passion for. you didn't get to be playing your usual stakes at the poker by losing a buyin at 10NL when you were starting out and jumping into a 25NL game to try to make a profit every day. keep the faith and look at your strike rate in a year from now. maybe cut it down to 3 days a week so that it doesn't become 'work'.

**RBBlogger** · 18-06-10, 13:42

Good Advice Outflank. I shall heed it.

**RBBlogger** · 20-06-10, 12:39

Sundays Pace races

3 pace races today but the 4.10 in Pont is super competitive so leaving alone

Hereford 5.50
Ryeman
Rapide Plasir
Yellow Flag

€30 Dutch weighted in the above order

Hexham 4.30

Harry Flashman
Chernik
€20 dutch weighted towards top horse even though both are carrying big weights so wouldnt surprise me if a low weight beats them even though these are the form horses

**mdoug** · 29-07-10, 00:11

hey, any updates?

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