IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[wicklowp]

He's quite simply a legend

[Wesley Harms]

Our Conor withdrawn from punchestown clash with Hurricane Fly. He was 5/2 second fav. Might have been a big price

[Thefonze]

16 /1 winner posted last week, hope people were on.
Tomorrow Nicholascopernicus is a good each way bet in the November handicap. He is about 12/1.
Anyone doing the ten to follow this year, it's a good interest bet for little money.

[amberleaf]

Box ticking machine came up with nicholascopernicus as well,along with open eagle @ 14s(both scored the same),some firms paying 5 places but still ante post afaik.Swnymor looks interesting @ 25s and could shake a stick at it but failed to finish lto in chepstow over the sticks.Whiskey And Red might be worth a sniff in ffos las on sunday depending on the price.Any update on our conor?

[RBBlogger]

I have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.

The logic is simple, they race market is more competitive in my eyes than what betfair thinks and the favourite is too short to offer value as a win bet. I factor in a substantial margin of error % when choosing which races are competitive. There won't be too many qualifying bets as the Betfair market is pretty darn accurate these days. I'll post selections here every day for 60 days and see how it goes... If all goes tits up, I'll happily return to my cave

Wolves 6.30: Muhtaris (1.92)
Wolves 7.00: Dustland Fairy (4.0)
Wolves 7.30: Orpsie (3.8)

[thedini]

Good Luck RBBlogger, that would be an oustanding return laying short priced favs. Any tipster achieving those sort of returns would be delighted and probably rich!!!!

[Thefonze]

I have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.

The logic is simple, they race market is more competitive in my eyes than what betfair thinks and the favourite is too short to offer value as a win bet. I factor in a substantial margin of error % when choosing which races are competitive. There won't be too many qualifying bets as the Betfair market is pretty darn accurate these days. I'll post selections here every day for 60 days and see how it goes... If all goes tits up, I'll happily return to my cave

Wolves 6.30: Muhtaris (1.92)
Wolves 7.00: Dustland Fairy (4.0)
Wolves 7.30: Orpsie (3.8)

So at present we should ignore dustland fairy and orpsie, until they go below 3.5.
I will be amazed if this experiment works, it's subjective in that you choose who you lay but only if they are backed beyond a certain point.
As for our Conor, he possibly won't run till Christmas, when he will finish 2nd to hurricane fly!

[Frossach]

I don't know where to start.

A good tip

[nicnicnic]

I don't know where to start.

ah go'wan

[Thefonze]

I have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.

The logic is simple, they race market is more competitive in my eyes than what betfair thinks and the favourite is too short to offer value as a win bet. I factor in a substantial margin of error % when choosing which races are competitive. There won't be too many qualifying bets as the Betfair market is pretty darn accurate these days. I'll post selections here every day for 60 days and see how it goes... If all goes tits up, I'll happily return to my cave

Wolves 6.30: Muhtaris (1.92)
Wolves 7.00: Dustland Fairy (4.0)
Wolves 7.30: Orpsie (3.8)

2 winners but only 1 qualifier. But these winners are losers for this system.

[RBBlogger]

I have placed a high number of bets the flat season just gone and quite soon I realized that any bet under 3.5 on betfair wasn't making any money for me. Therefore I will hopefully have time to post some false favourites that should be layed ONLY if under 3.5 on Betfair. You won't get rich but will probably make 10-20 points profit a month.

The above is misleading as the 3.5 figure had to do with a totally different backing system I use. However it did make me want to look at laying horses again.

The laying system basically marks races where I think the fav should be 5/1 or higher using my own tissue price and therefore I want to lay the favourite and/or second favourite in that race which are under 3.5 on Betfair. Bets will be placed close to off time. I use 3.5 as a cut off point so I can estimate potential profits and I also feel comfortable laying that price. My average lay price should be less than 3.5 which will increase the ROI but I also definitely over estimated my potential profits earlier -

make 10-20 points profit a month

System should hopefully make between 0.5 and 4.5 points per month after commission (using 30 bets on average a month) as long as my tissues prices are ok Every so often I get the urge to post a system/method selections in a public forum. This time I decided to post here as this thread can be dead at times and its a pity as there are some very good gambling minds on the forum that can help share some knowledge.

I would also urge people to dust off your old systems that may have made money 10 years ago and run them over a recent sample size to see if they are back in profit. I've seen some of mine back making profit again over the Summer with just a few minor tweaks and another disciplined bettor I know also confirmed the same.

[Thefonze]

Let's get some tips here.

[RBBlogger]

only 1 lay contender today at the moment, trading around 3.5

Kelso 13.05 - Clondaw Kinght

[Thefonze]

only 1 lay contender today at the moment, trading around 3.5

Kelso 13.05 - Clondaw Kinght

Not a great start for the system, do you have a bank?

[underachievement]

don't think it classes as aftertiming if it doesn't involve the poster............. just got 2 calls within 10 mins from mates. 1st lad did a 100 treble last nite of Rupert lamb/dikiali/melodic rendevez, happy days got a bit over 2k
......... but not to be outdone the other mate did a 25e/w treble on the way to a scan with his partner of Kenny the captain/levitate/jack dexter to give a return of just over 11k.
ive a tenner accume on the darts that may give back around 200............. think I need new friends & a new hobby don't really need the 200 tho coz drinks are on them tonight

[Thefonze]

don't think it classes as aftertiming if it doesn't involve the poster............. just got 2 calls within 10 mins from mates. 1st lad did a 100 treble last nite of Rupert lamb/dikiali/melodic rendevez, happy days got a bit over 2k
......... but not to be outdone the other mate did a 25e/w treble on the way to a scan with his partner of Kenny the captain/levitate/jack dexter to give a return of just over 11k.
ive a tenner accume on the darts that may give back around 200............. think I need new friends & a new hobby don't really need the 200 tho coz drinks are on them tonight

Fair pay to them, nothing better than money won! Nicholas Copernicus for 1k now

[Thefonze]

Some winner, my choice was never in it

[The Situation]

Think Politeness is a fair bit overpriced at 20/1 in the Carlisle 3:00. Showed some ability here last month that can be built up imo against two market leaders today both with their first runs of the season making their hurdling debuts in tough conditions that will really test their fitness levels. Looks the type of race with upset potential.

[amberleaf]

Little unusual to see eoin doyle sending one to wolverhampton(Indian Scout in the 5.50)has ran well at dundalk off the mark before and holds entry in kempton the following day,with ben curtis booked on both (3 rides in wolves & only booking in kempton,trainers only horse in england).off the track for the bones of a year tho.

[RBBlogger]

Lay fav in following races if under 3.5
Lingfield 12.30 - Tee it up Tommo -
L 1.30 - Sir Robert Cheval
K 8.00 - Golden Jubilee looks like the probable favourite at the moment

@Fonze Bank is 20 points based around liability. If my max liability per lay is €25, then I use a €500 bank. The way things are going I may need to pad it out:-)

[Pat Mustard]

Lingfield 12.30 - Tee it up Tommo - Lay if under 3.5

sweat

[Pat Mustard]

Rose angel has a huge chance in the 8.15 in Dundalk imo.

[elbows]

Think nadeya de la vega has a great chance in the pp

[pokerhand]

Rose angel has a huge chance in the 8.15 in Dundalk imo.

Great call... Thanks for the tip

[pokerhand]

Lay fav in following races if under 3.5
Lingfield 12.30 - Tee it up Tommo -
L 1.30 - Sir Robert Cheval
K 8.00 - Golden Jubilee looks like the probable favourite at the moment

@Fonze Bank is 20 points based around liability. If my max liability per lay is €25, then I use a €500 bank. The way things are going I may need to pad it out:-)

Kinda speechless here... All three won.

[wicklowp]

Just checked the Tote returns from Dundalk to see how much money my Placepot play made me, 2 winning lines from 8 for a near 25% loss

I do recall it once paying odds on at an English course some time ago but €3.10 is the smallest dividend I've seen in Ireland.

[amberleaf]

https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy...m-open-meeting

Any opinion on orgilgo bay in the t.h. trial on sat.,makes the short list 'breeding wise' and won well against clarcam lto.McConnells comments afterwards look interesting given he's ended up here.

SPOILER

It was very touch and go whether we let him go on the ground. We waited until Mark rode in the first to make a final decision. The ground was fine but he'd be better with a bit of an ease. He won well going away and he's a brilliant jumper when he gets it right. That run will bring him on a tonne and he was only getting going at the end. We might go for the Grade 3 at Fairyhouse and if we go for that we'll probably give him a bit of a break after that. We'd like to give him a break as he's been on the go for a while. Gelding him has really made a man of him. He's really filled out all over. A lot of the family improve with time and he's a half brother to Third Intention (a Grade 2 hurdles winner cross-channel) so he's got a lot going for him.

[RBBlogger]

5 wins out of 5 is pretty good going I think every would agree with my selections so far.. oh wait these are lay tips! Even the one horse that came second got promoted to first I shall be retiring to my cave at www.rakeback-blogger.com to continue this joyful experiment from tomorrow! O.k lets see If my lay selections for today all win as well!

any horse under 3.50 in these races qualify!
Kempt 5.20
Kempt 5.50
South 3.50

[The Situation]

Channel 4 doing a big flat feature during the first big NH meeting lol.

Anyway Zest for Life in the X country for me at 12's.

[nicnicnic]

5 wins out of 5 is pretty good going I think every would agree with my selections so far.. oh wait these are lay tips! Even the one horse that came second got promoted to first I shall be retiring to my cave at www.rakeback-blogger.com to continue this joyful experiment from tomorrow! O.k lets see If my lay selections for today all win as well!

any horse under 3.50 in these races qualify!
Kempt 5.20
Kempt 5.50
South 3.50

keep going RBB, just a bad start. I'm enjoying railing the system anyhow.

[Thefonze]

I am mad, I made vino geiego my star horse for my ten to follow entry, I really think he had a chance tomorrow in a wide open race.

[amberleaf]

yup,no orgilgo bay tomorrow,barry orr from betfair was saying that they did a little filming at manor farm,reckons nicholls was very sweet on art mauresque for the trial (cheltenham 12.40),could be worth a pop @ 4/1.box ticking machine landed on Johns Spirit @ 8/1 for the gold cup with powers paying 5 places.

[The Situation]

The Paddy Power has been dominated by the younger chasers in recent years, Little Josh was the only 8+ winner in the last decade, the heavier weights have also been more to the forefront despite seemingly being poorly handicaped, the likes of Al Ferof, Traquil Sea, our Vic and Exotic dancer all winning carrying hefty weights. Previous course wins, first runs of the season and less than 5 hc chase runs also trend v strongly so I'd be inclined to side with Rajdhani Express. Not too sure if SWC is value for his 5lbs though

[jazzyfish]

2.35 cork hellberemembered

[Hooch]

2.35 cork hellberemembered

Very costly second last jump that cost him the win

[jazzyfish]

Very costly second last jump that cost him the win

just the way my year is going

[Pat Mustard]

Mullins taking the piss today

[NoRiverRequired]

Some good racing the weekend, The Liquidator & Dodging bullets were very impressive in Cheltenham.

Was in Punchestown Sunday, bit dissapointed with Don Cossack, didnt seem to find anything when push came to shove.
Jurys out a bit on him just yet.Hopefully he'l progress, have him in my Ten to follow!

[Wesley Harms]

I Wasn't as impressed as most people seem to be with Dodging Bullets. Would back him for an arkle with counterfeit

[NoRiverRequired]

I Wasn't as impressed as most people seem to be with Dodging Bullets. Would back him for an arkle with counterfeit

Ya wouldn't be my idea of an Arkle winner either.
Still hard to fault his run, bar getting in a bit close to couple of fences its was a pretty smart round.

Briar Hill out over hurdles tomorrow in Wexford apparently,another potential star for Mullins.

[amberleaf]

See that briar hill was 2/7 for a time yesterday,1/7 best price now(1/10 in places)

[jazzyfish]

george fernback 3.05 and cracking chap in the last both in thurlus take prices

[Theresa]

Cheers Buddy in Dundalk 20:50.

Opened at 112/1 and has now been changed to 12/1.

Trader misclick? If you had a bet at 112/1 would they honour it?

[thedini]

Cheers Buddy in Dundalk 20:50.

Opened at 112/1 and has now been changed to 12/1.

Trader misclick? If you had a bet at 112/1 would they honour it?

no chance.

[Theresa]

Obviously a mistake and they obviously wont honor it.

As it happens Cheers Buddy is my only bet today. The 16/1 is an obnoxiously big price.

So what will happen? Void the bet or give SP price or what?

[Mellor]

So what will happen? Void the bet or give SP price or what?

They often contact you and give you the option.
If they don't then the bet probably will be void.

[Theresa]

They often contact you and give you the option.
If they don't then the bet probably will be void.

Nah they have auto changed my bet slip to 12/1.

[amberleaf]

https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy/betfair-chase-and-weekend

Best one so far gab,will this be a weekly/fortnightly thing or whats the plan?

[Dice75]

Yay

[SatNav]

get up ya little daisy

[Theresa]

Solid!

Any chance of them honoring my 112/1? To the papers!!!!!

[Emmet]

HOHO!

[The Situation]

Would I be the only one who hasn't lost faith in Long Run yet? I mean 12's for a horse whose won more grade 1's than any horse in the field, has placed in grade 1's nearly as much as the entire field combined, last years form figures of 2132 is not that of a horse as rapidly in regression as people would have you believe. Always seems to improve after first time out, ok was a particularly poor run lto but is reported to have scoped badly. Think he's a horse who went from being over rated in his early days to under rated now. 9/2 the biggest SP he's gone off at in his five years racing(mainly top class races), nearly getting 3x that here.

[NoRiverRequired]

Would I be the only one who hasn't lost faith in Long Run yet? I mean 12's for a horse whose won more grade 1's than any horse in the field, has placed in grade 1's nearly as much as the entire field combined, last years form figures of 2132 is not that of a horse as rapidly in regression as people would have you believe. Always seems to improve after first time out, ok was a particularly poor run lto but is reported to have scoped badly. Think he's a horse who went from being over rated in his early days to under rated now. 9/2 the biggest SP he's gone off at in his five years racing(mainly top class races), nearly getting 3x that here.

Was seriously considering a punt on him during the week but decided against it.
I do think hes overpriced at 12's for sure though.
He basically ran through a fence lto and that led to him scoping badly, apparently a bleed.
He has far less question marks over him in the race than CueCard for example, who is as short as 15/2 with some firms.

Went with Tidal Bay ew @10's yesterday myself.

[Strewelpeter]

Jennies Jewel runs tomorrow in Navan in another handicap with similar conditions to Naas a few weeks ago.
Its an ultra competitive race and my feeling is that the handicapper has been quite harsh raising her three pounds for not winning last time so even if she runs her race she's likely to run in to one or two with a small edge at the weights.
Having said that she's in great form at the moment and very keen to run a race so much so that there is a danger she may get a bit over excited and damage her chances during the preliminaries tomorrow.
The 10/1 with PP paying 4 places feels like a decent price but I'm too close and too anxious to be sure. Tote and BF place markets are probably the place to play.

[NoRiverRequired]

Jennies Jewel runs tomorrow in Navan in another handicap with similar conditions to Naas a few weeks ago.
Its an ultra competitive race and my feeling is that the handicapper has been quite harsh raising her three pounds for not winning last time so even if she runs her race she's likely to run in to one or two with a small edge at the weights.
Having said that she's in great form at the moment and very keen to run a race so much so that there is a danger she may get a bit over excited and damage her chances during the preliminaries tomorrow.
The 10/1 with PP paying 4 places feels like a decent price but I'm too close and too anxious to be sure. Tote and BF place markets are probably the place to play.

GL SP

[rounders123]

The 10/1 with PP paying 4 places feels like a decent price but I'm too close and too anxious to be sure. Tote and BF place markets are probably the place to play.

You and GAB have quite the buddy love going on

[jazzyfish]

6.50 be royale 7.20 incendo double to win both wolverhampton

[Dice75]

6.50 be royale 7.20 incendo double to win both wolverhampton

One of the stranger doubles I've seen posted. GL with 2nd leg.

[kaiser soze]

6.50 be royale 7.20 incendo double to win both wolverhampton

Good shout jazzy won like a 6/4 shot should.One for the tracker.