odds of about 4/1 in a nine runner non handicap racing against a 1/4 shot with the market being 33 bar..... Well we can all dream ( and scale our expectations downwards.
-
-
every one is different but I will happily back EW at prices as low as 5/2 and sometimes even 9/4. -
will you GTFOOriginally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
-
I remember backing a 9/4 shot ew once, cant remember the name of the horse but I still maintain it was one of the best bets I've ever placed.
Godolphin had a 1/2 fav, first run in 10 months or so, the horse I backed was in good form, improving, and only about 4lbs out on official figures with the fav. Betting was something like 20/1 bar 2, 33s+ bar 3. 8 runners obv.
He hacked up. If I think of its name ill post itComment
-
-
I got banned from a bookies last Monday for attempting to have €20 e/w on an 11/4 shot in a 7 runner race. Not optimum but it was 40/1 bar 2. Fav was 1/3 ( 1.05 Fontwell Monday )Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
The gimp behind the counter who until recently was on 96FM giving tips ( Paul Cashman CEO of Cashmans bookmakers ) told me that HE wasnt doing each way on the race and when I said youre having a laugh ( and kinda pointed at his rules )told me to just leave if that was my attitude. Told him he was a joke and his reply was basically fuck off..
Of course the horse won easy, but the top two were 30 lengths clear jumping the 3rd last...
If bookies are running scared on these bets it because with the sp place terms they know the odds are against them. Id imagine on the place only and the w/o fav market this horse was at most 1/5 if not a 1/8 shot and youre nearly getting 3/4 for the place when backed e/w.
There is normally a couple of these bets every week and hopefully this thread will highlight them..
Remember backing each way is something you do on 5/2 to 4/1 shots ideally in 9 runner NON handicaps... The win bets should be kept for 12/1 shots in 13 runner handicaps AND not vica-versaLast edited by Deep Throat; 30-01-10, 06:48.Comment
-
Comment
-
first winner at chelts today 420sComment
-
And Twiston Davies just had the first winner at Uttoxeter. Horses obv running well. Doubt whether Knowhere or Ollie Magern are good enough to win the Cotswolds though.Originally posted by nicnicnic View Post
One horse crying out to be backed today is Katchit, 8/1 and bigger is massive. It's the worst Cleeve Hurdle I can remember, Katchit loves Cheltenham, and Kings horses are really coming into form. I can see it being between him and Mr Thriller, but 8/1 Katchit is a great priceComment
-
looks wide open, i was thinking fair along each way, but not having a bet, GL with yours.Originally posted by Howard_Finkel View PostComment
-
with the twister horses in such form then Kayf Aramis is worth a 2nd look in the cleeve. Its 4 runs at the track read as a win in the pertmps final at the festival, along with 3 other placed efforts. Its a pretty open race. I would be fearful that MrThriller could turn into a realistic threat to Big Bucks - I think he is a decent price for an EW poke in the race.Comment
-
Nicholls is going to take all the gold cup prize money back to ditcheatComment
-
Some training performance from Nicholls there getting Taranis to hack up after that long a lay offComment
-
fck it - hope they go gold route rather than ryanair again. anyway - think he is flattered by that run, they went silly up front and were racing from too far out in thet ground.Comment
-
What race did you watch, there were not going that fast at all and they only really raced from 2 out.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View PostComment
-
Thing is though when you would have expected him to blow up he was able to quicken. Now maybe he wasn't quickening, rather the leaders backpedaling, but it would be harsh to knock that run imo. And fwiw I think they should go for the Ryanair.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View PostComment
-
oh yea they should obv go the ryanair route but ive already backed poquelin and never considered that taranis would be back or even a contender for the race. havnt looked yet but i suppsoe there will have been a mad overreaction to that run and he is a 4's shot now or something.Comment
-
the ryanair is an early closer and Taranis doesnt appear to hold an entry.Comment
-
Yeah obv there will be the usual overreaction alright. Also the dreaded bounce factor might put a few people off but theres enough of a break till Chelt that I doubt it will have a bearing.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
Just checked, and it is early closing, but he could be supplemented for £11.5k if they so wished.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View PostComment
-
Glad I wasn't punting Today, had all the hallmarks of a day I do my bollox, without really fancying anything.Comment
-
likewise. stuck a tenner on Kayf Aramis in this race and had 600/100 Mille Chief for the Triumph - thought it was a more sensible spend of 100 that fckin it at a few races today.Originally posted by nicnicnic View PostComment
-
Taranis goes straight to the Gold CupComment
-
thats what i love about racing nicholls said he hadnt a chance 2day lol.Originally posted by Howard_Finkel View Postlocation green and yellow stretford endComment
-
Disgusted when Private Be got beat today. Had him at 13/2 and thought he had it coming to the last.
Went off in a huff to play football. Came back to check my dockets/results and realised I had The Sawyer in a patent (small) with Arctic Magic (8s). Got more than I would have got for Private Be !!!
Gambling - mugs game.Comment
-
Seems like all the decent punting was to be had at Hereford today.
"I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. ThompsonComment
-
..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
-
He's 11/8Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View Post I was hoping for something like 7-1/8-1 for an each way.
Comment
-
novice event, in the muck, fell last time, 5/4Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View Post
hardly a value proposition (may well win but still!)"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
-
-
<pat on the back>Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
-
..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
-
eh 2 of my horses to follow for the year are running this weekend.
Daves Dream runs in a Novice Chase, prolly best to strike a line though him but if the ground is no worse than the Gd/Sft it claims to be then he might be woth a stupid poke.
More importantly According To John also runs. Bear with me on this - i said he was a lock for a 3m4f+ hcp chase and that he would be competitive in the Grand National. Well he is imo very well in but needs a test to show his best. He is entered in the Blue Sqr Chase over 3m4f in Haydock on the 20th and I see him as cracking value in that. In the interim the Weights for the Grand National are being framed and it looks like he needs another 7lbs to be sure to get into the GN so they are running him tomorrow over 3m in Sandown - it wont be ideal but I would hope that he has enough in hand that he can win tomorrow which will A) give him a fixed 7lb for Haydock and B) get him into the GN.
He is carrying 10st 5lb tomorrow and has Timmy Murphy on board in a mediocre enough race - deffo worth a shot tomorrow so long as he is a sensible price.Comment
-
Lol at EW thieves ITT
Foldaramus et foldarabimusComment
-
Tchios Polos generally 7/2 against Punchestowns in the 2.35 at Sandown.
Fell at the last when had the only other contender for 2nd (Pocket Aces ) stuffed at Kempton.
Front Runner who could put Punchestown's jumping to the test.
Powers are quoting him at 1/4 w/o the favourite, so 7/8 for a place has to be value.Comment
-
Any thoughts on Leopardstown today, headin over. Notre Pere @ 11/2?Comment
-
Dunguib... emm, wowComment
-
..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
-
yea thats the horse alright, its tipped on atr, will throw a few quid on it myself, nothing big though.Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View PostComment
-
-
can't win them allOriginally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide to... View Post
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
-
..."We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big PhilComment
-
Did he really do anything you didnt expect today apart from jump badly?Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
Dont know how he shortened after todays race.Originally posted by ArmaniJeansComment
-
while I agree with you that his jumping left a lot to be desired, you have to be impressed by the way he never came off the bridle for the entire race. Believe it or not but they were fairly good novices that he trounced. Fionnegas is highly regarded by Mullins as is Some Present by his brother.Originally posted by Starvin Marvin View Post
I know a lot of the good form readers on here will be laying him at the price (and it is short for a 22+ runner race at high speed) but if he jumps adequately at Chelt he could be the greatest certainty since Istabraq (when he won his second).
the crowd today was totally excited by him and I for one can't wait til the 16th.Comment
-
I disagree they were good novices, the have posted career best performances over hurdles of 138 and 137, not outstanding by any stretch of the imagination and would have no hope of being placed in a Supreme Novices.
Menorah who looks like being the main challenger to Dunguib has already had a 153 figure compared to Dunguibs best of 154 (admittedly looking like he has a hell of a lot left in the locker) so a lot more will be required at the festival.
With a possible 20 horse field, an inexperienced jockey round Prestbury Park, jumping issues and 4 wins against not great oppostion on bottomless ground i think to be odds on at this stage is silly but each to their own.
He certainly is a very exciting prospect and i cant wait to see how he does at the Festival but hes a lay at current prices imo.Last edited by Starvin Marvin; 07-02-10, 18:07.Originally posted by ArmaniJeansComment
-
Ive only just had a chance to look at this race from Saturday and I am absolutely buzzing afterwards - 25/1 is available with B365 for the Blue Square Gold Cup. This is a price to be getting excited about. The 3m 4f is 100% perfect for him and it will be pretty much the first time since going over fences that I can say he 100% has the trip that he requires. Everything about his running suggests that 3m 4f is the job, hopefully the ground will be half way decent and this lad rates as one hell of a bet. He is thrown in off 130 in that race.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
Chaaaaarge people, chaaaarge... This is a once every couple of years sort of situation and a must get involved race! I cant remember the last time I was looking forward to a race as much as this one. I might even take a day trip to Haydock.Comment
-
Tell your colleagues across the corridor in Paddy towers that your uncle is the owner and that the horse is being stopped to get a better mark for Cheltenham.Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
Retire on the 50/1 winnings
Simples!Comment
-
if my uncle was the owner (Sir Robert Ogden) then I am pretty sure id be living off old money and be well retired by nowOriginally posted by NewApproach View PostTell your colleagues across the corridor in Paddy towers that your uncle is the owner and that the horse is being stopped to get a better mark for Cheltenham.
Retire on the 50/1 winnings
Simples!
Comment
-
Funnily enough a mad keen punter has been following this horse in my workplace and mentioned it to me. Few quid stuck on e/way at 25'sOriginally posted by Gimmeabreak View PostComment
-
-
16/1 best price across the board now (according to the RP odds comparison page anyway)
the weight of the BCB millions has eradicated the valoooooooooooo
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
-
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-rac...quare-gold-cup
25's still available. You must have been looking at According To Pete who is in the same raceComment
-
Originally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
now if I said I had just stuck 50 e/w on the wrong horse, would you laugh your hole off? Hypothetically speaking of course
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."Comment
-
what time is according to john racing? or is it finished?Disaster - DreamcrusherComment
-
They are not pricing him at 25's *and* giving him a week and a half head start or we would all be as excited as Gimmeabreak. It's on Saturday week.Originally posted by BrianByrne View PostComment
-
Meh, 30 and 32 on betfair, but no place market yet
Comment
-
Last of the Bunch looks nailed on for a place and has a good chance of beating the fav who is carrying a penalty. The rest seem fairly mediocre
2.10 Carlisle Last of the Bunch e/w 7/2 generally
Frameit 1.25 Lingfield. should be placed and with normal improvement from first time out should be close enough to win. Ran very green that day. 2 unraced horses and a once raced a/w debutant ahead of him in the betting mean that there has to be a question mark about being certain to be placed ,but imo backing a/w debutants is a bad move. and backing racecourse debutants on the a/w is even worse, so at 8/1 should be worth a €10 e/w €5w betComment
-
one of my horses to follow for the season, New Leyf, runs in Kemption tonight. I doubt the 3/1 will be available for long.Comment
-
Was just about to post this. I ont think they'll be able to hide him in this oneOriginally posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
Sneaky each way bet at 3's imo"Quitters never win, Winners never quit."Comment
-
unfortunately there is a non runner and its now a 7 runner race. If they go fast enough he wins, if they crawl he gets chinned.Originally posted by whyno View PostWas just about to post this. I ont think they'll be able to hide him in this one
Sneaky each way bet at 3's imoComment
Comment