IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[Raoul Duke III]

Indian Fairy tomorrow for me.

Misfire

[TheImprover]

Impressive stuff by Vroum Vroum.

A Toi Phil is a very good price w/o @ 7/4 Imo

[TheImprover]

Ran a stinker

[Donk Magnet]

any tips for the 1000 and 2000 guineas this weekend? PP have a special whereby you put two singles down and they'll put on the double at the same stake

Where did you see this?

[Sirtoyou]

Is Jennie running tomorrow SP?

[Strewelpeter]

Oh I forgot about the entry.... she'd be tough enough to do it but the ground was a bit on the good side yesterday.do

[rounders123]

Left after the 4th race at Punchestown on comped tickets as it was too shit. 3g a problem, taking a piss a queue, getting a drink a queue, every place a crush. The only place not a crush was around the tote hatches. Pulled over twice on the way home to watch the following 2 races.
Wouldn't go again of a Friday even with free tickets.

[Fullof..It]

[DeadParrot]

Source?

[DeadParrot]

I dunno why I asked. I backed them anyway

[The Situation]

Gonna blind back all O'Brien outsiders (10/1 or>) in the English/Irish classics this year, usually a ridic profitable strategy.

[Dice75]

Jamie Spencer. Sigh.

Out of curiosity would any trainer/owner give instructions to plonk the best horse in the race stone last all the way around and tell the jockey to navigate through 12 horse traffic with some coming back at you while giving your rivals first run & a 6-10l lead.

[luckforsome]

Gonna blind back all O'Brien outsiders (10/1 or>) in the English/Irish classics this year, usually a ridic profitable strategy.

...Out of curiosity, roughly how many bets do you reckon this would be?...

[The Situation]

...Out of curiosity, roughly how many bets do you reckon this would be?...

10ish I'd reckon, the value is probably more with the fillies, likes of Qualify, Was, Bracelet, Marvelous, Homecoming Queen all winning classics at fancy prices in the past few years.

[Hooch]

Jamie Spencer. Sigh.

Out of curiosity would any trainer/owner give instructions to plonk the best horse in the race stone last all the way around and tell the jockey to navigate through 12 horse traffic with some coming back at you while giving your rivals first run & a 6-10l lead.

Yes he did the same yesterday with a reltated horse.

[Strewelpeter]

Left after the 4th race at Punchestown on comped tickets as it was too shit. 3g a problem, taking a piss a queue, getting a drink a queue, every place a crush. The only place not a crush was around the tote hatches. Pulled over twice on the way home to watch the following 2 races.
Wouldn't go again of a Friday even with free tickets.

I was pleasantly surprised by the broadband, I was getting 4g full blast on 3.
They could do with more toilets... Friday gets an special crowd but it pays a lot of the wages.

I was thrilled to hear that Punchestown have bought the land across from the stands that is worked out as a quarry and is a horrible eyesore . They have a 12 year plan to rehabilitate the 180 acres.

[DeadParrot]

Tank fully emptied on air force blue.
Could be the makings of a good day
I've a few pending in leopardstown as well

[Dice75]

Tank fully emptied on air force blue.
Could be the makings of a good day
I've a few pending in leopardstown as well

Just accidentally cashed out on a double going onto it. FML.

They don't get you to confirm cash outs on PP when you misclick the cunts.

[Dice75]

Yeah PP. Ye cunts

[Raoul Duke III]

Yeah PP. Ye cunts

Don't see many AOB G1 favs do that...ever. Second string ran a decent race as well.

[DeadParrot]

Fml

[DeadParrot]

Need stretching the truth to save the day

[DeadParrot]

Or jaairh at 5.40 Thirsk.
5ilbs off for the ride.

[White Knight]

Rathnure Rebel @ 10s is too big in the 6.10 Punchestown

[DeadParrot]

Nina

[elbows]

From a mate of mine.

1000 guineas analysis

The O' Brien Angle

Horses with a run record is 035120400
The winner was a 25/1 shot. The second was a 33/1 shot just touched off. The 3rd was a 9/1 poke while the 4th and 5th were big double figures. When he runs only one horse they generally don’t do well. Nearly all horses that have had runs outperform the shorter priced stable mates who didn’t have a run.

Another interesting point is the two best placers had the following profile. Plenty of runs as a 2 yo. Went to the US with them. Ran them over 6 furlong

What does this mean? They are well forward. They are not going to be improvers so no long-term prospects so get the most out of them. They’re not stayer’s and so not going to be aimed at the oaks etc.

Bracelet for instance had a run but only had two runs as a 2yo and didn’t go to the states. Same with Devoted to You. Heart Shaped finished a nose off third. Guess what – ran over sprints, went to the states, and had 6 runs as a 2yo!

Horses without a run record is 0030000

This included 3 favs – tapesty , misty for me and rumplestiltskin

In the last five years it seems O’brien uses this as a prep race for bigger targets for fillies that will stay as evidenced by the record of horses winning G1’s after a no show here.

Alice Springs 20/1 e/w

Has had a run

Has had a busy 2yo campaign

Has ran over 6 furlongs

Has been to the US

Form wise she doesn’t have a lot to find with the fav and second fav only beaten a lt by them. She has placed in two G1’s and should have won the juvenile fillies turf. She has been to the track (like Together, same jock up too) where she won a very valuable race with ease.

The data



2015

1. Qualify 12/1
No run. Finishes last. Wins Oaks

2014

2. Bracelet 11/1
Run (Wins). Finishes 14/17 wins Irish oaks

3. Tapestry 4/1 fav

No run. Finishes last. Wins oaks

2013

4. Moth 9/1

Run. Finishes 3rd

Does nothing again

5. Snow Queen 20/1
Run Finishes 5th

Does nothing again

2012

6. Homecoming Queen 25/1
Run. Wins. Does nothing again

7. Maybe 13/8 fav

No run. Finishes 3rd

5th in the oaks

2011

8. Together 33/1

Run. 2nd .

Wins Fillies turf breeders cup

9. Misty for me 9/1

No run. 11th .

Wins pretty polly G1

2010

10. Devoted to you 11/1
Run. 15/17.

Does nothing

2009

11. Heart Shaped 14/1
Run. 4th

Does nothing

2008

12. Kitty Macham 8/1

No run. 9/15. Does nothing

13. Savethisdanceforme 12/1
Run. 10/15. Does nothing

2007

14. Theann 20/1
Run. 10/21. Does nothing

2006

15. Rumplestiltskin 3/1 fav

No run. 7th

Does nothing

16. Race for the stars 12/1
No run 8th

Does nothing

[rounders123]

I was pleasantly surprised by the broadband, I was getting 4g full blast on 3.
They could do with more toilets... Friday gets an special crowd but it pays a lot of the wages.

I was thrilled to hear that Punchestown have bought the land across from the stands that is worked out as a quarry and is a horrible eyesore . They have a 12 year plan to rehabilitate the 180 acres.

Yeah i suppose so, ah just venting. Thats good news about that quarry site. Ladbrokes should lose the contract in all racecources though, useless setups. 2 smaller screens show the racing on either end of all the screens and the largest screen of them all right in the middle just showing meaningless specials.

Its really striking how pleasant staff are in restaurants/retail in Kildare. Went to Naas beforehand and staff are all smiles and chat asking how much of the festival your here for an re-reminders to bring an umbrella. Im not used to this good treatment at all.

I did experience a Gee bag manager in a PP shop in Newbridge this morning scolding a younger male colleague about something trivial in front of punters. I gave her a dose of her own medicine in an equal manner about something else she erred on. She didnt like it.

[Fullof..It]

Source?

Combo of sources (posting the duplicates). Reliability in the last 2 weeks has been brutal. Tail of hunt season and starting of flat is being compounded by the weather.

Ill hold off posting in here till it turns. In saying that below has popped up and considering the fact Im struggling to get the lads out for a pint for the football....

15:20: Henpecked

[elbows]

Combo of sources (posting the duplicates). Reliability in the last 2 weeks has been brutal. Tail of hunt season and starting of flat is being compounded by the weather.

Ill hold off posting in here till it turns. In saying that below has popped up and considering the fact Im struggling to get the lads out for a pint for the football....

15:20: Henpecked

mirsalle in the race before it too. Double pays 20/1

[Raoul Duke III]

Allez la filly francaise.

Although whenever i say this I usually end up cursing French jockeys. Thierry Jarnet.

[Raoul Duke III]

Normal service resumed for Coolmore. Pick that out.

[horatio1]

Two little ew nibbles at the Curragh deeds not words and creggs pipes.

Looking forward to seeing how Blue de Vega has wintered.

[rounders123]

Des Scahill eh.

[rounders123]

Two little ew nibbles at the Curragh deeds not words and creggs pipes.

Looking forward to seeing how Blue de Vega has wintered.

Nice one well played.

[elbows]

John peel 20/1 ew Chester cup

Has a great draw for a front runner in five. A lb lower than last year where he had to tack across from a wide draw and only gave his best in final 100 yards finishing 5th to the ascot gold cup winner. Same prep as last year. This is a much weaker race on paper.

There's no one to take him on up front so should set the fractions. While the fav is decent he's not chucked in and plenty of better horses went off fav for this without winning. Quick Jack is drawn in the car park and stable not in the same form as last year and our lad has a 7lb swing . If JP breaks well , shows early speed he should be hard to pass

Not my work just passing it on.

[kaiser soze]

Two little ew nibbles at the Curragh deeds not words and creggs pipes.

Looking forward to seeing how Blue de Vega has wintered.

I was having seconditis in the pub up until this wp. And got
A couple. Of winners after it wp again.

[Pat Mustard]

Hard to justify backing anything after Cheltenham & Punchestown. But one that came up in the tracker I thought was interesting is Pride ofthe castle @330 Fakenham. Form reads well ...worth a go for me IMO. Last bet for me before Royal Ascot and the likes. GL me

[Mellor]

Hard to justify backing anything after Cheltenham & Punchestown. But one that came up in the tracker I thought was interesting is Pride ofthe castle @330 Fakenham. Form reads well ...worth a go for me IMO. Last bet for me before Royal Ascot and the likes. GL me

I keep hearing about the trackers, but embarrassingly don't have a clue about it.
Crash course anyone?

[Donk Magnet]

I keep hearing about the trackers, but embarrassingly don't have a clue about it.
Crash course anyone?

Go to Irish racing click on the horse tracker option set up an account and you can add horses and it emails you when they are running.

[Pat Mustard]

Go to Irish racing click on the horse tracker option set up an account and you can add horses and it emails you when they are running.

I use the attheraces tracker. You can have up to 200 horses in it and you can a horse there permanently and just next time out etc...

[The Situation]

Usually when a price is so head scratchingly big there's something amiss, but still can't help but leave the 40's about Venue unbacked in Chester Cup. Coming from the plum draw in 1, and he's carrying the joint lightest weight in the race, in a race that hugely favours lightweights, nothing carrying more than 9'4 has won in the last decade. Trained by Donald McCain whose shown on a couple of occasions he knows how to win this race. Hasn't ran on flat in some time but was a classy enough performer before heading down the hurdles route. The price suggests he bombs, but think there's at least potential there to outrun that.

Like Henderson's No Heretic too in the race. Ew's on both.

[NoRiverRequired]

Like Henderson's No Heretic too in the race. Ew's on both.

Shout, WP

[rounders123]

Bob Skier 14/1 in the 7.30 at Clonmel

[Guest]

Bob Skier 14/1 in the 7.30 at Clonmel

25/1 in a few places

[Jibzzzz]

On ew @25/1 for bantswagon.

[NoRiverRequired]

Tellthemnuttin 6.25 in DownPatrick 20/1 B365

[Jibzzzz]

Short price but Seeyouallincoppers 6.35 Cork @9/4

[elbows]

Empor's sword in the last in Cork. 50/1

[Dice75]

Tellthemnuttin 6.25 in DownPatrick 20/1 B365

Nice!

[NoRiverRequired]

Handy as you like. Hope a few got on.

[CHDad]

Tellthemnuttin 6.25 in DownPatrick 20/1 B365

[CHDad]

Short price but Seeyouallincoppers 6.35 Cork @9/4

[CHDad]

Win

[Dice75]

Short price but Seeyouallincoppers 6.35 Cork @9/4

Handy enough again

[CHDad]

Productive 15 mins m8s. Elbows tip comes in and im drinking til ~Tuesday

[Dice75]

Productive 15 mins m8s. Elbows tip comes in and im drinking til ~Tuesday

16s for a place on PP

[NoRiverRequired]

Productive 15 mins m8s. Elbows tip comes in and im drinking til ~Tuesday

Same race but I was told by someone involved with Faonagh that there hopefully of a big run 20/1 as well. Might be worth an ew poke.

[Jibzzzz]

Productive 15 mins m8s. Elbows tip comes in and im drinking til ~Tuesday

I'm happy with 2/3 in trxie as well as singles.

Elbows comes in, I'm off on holiday's.

[rounders123]

Productive 15 mins m8s. Elbows tip comes in and im drinking til ~Tuesday

Dont forget to stock up on the dog food m8

[CHDad]

Dont forget to stock up on the dog food m8

We'll be eating from the butcher this week m8