Football-betting thread

[poprock]

jumped on at 14 to 1, they got half an hour and are dominating

[eagle eye]

Ah feck it, thats that now. Kinda felt it wasn't gonna be their night after the penalty wasn't given and then Silva's shot hits the crossbar with the keeper beaten.

[bohsman]

I was half-impressed with Italy tonight against Brazil (friendly match 2-2).
Italy are comfortably top of their World Cup qualifying group.
I've put €200 at 25s on Italy to win the 2014 World Cup.
That's a big price for a team 5th in the FIFA rankings, runners up in Euro 2012, four times World Cup winners, twice runner-up.

I went to Malta v Italy last night, it was probably the worst match I have ever seen. It was 2-0 at half time and neither team attempted to play football in the 2nd half so I'll focus on the first 45 for analysis.
Balotelli and Pirlo by far the standout players. I don't see how they will be able to cope without Pirlo in particular. The wingers were awful, failed to regain posession and did little when they had it, their first was an early penalty and the second a header just before ht both by Balotelli. Defensively they let Malta through several times, Buffon giving away a penalty once and Malta hitting the crossbar the second, there were a few last gasp tackles aswell.

[FeetMagic]

Surprised and happy to see Sunderland are available at 12/5 for the drop. Here's their remaining fixture list:

Chelsea V Sunderland

Newcastle V Sunderland

Sunderland V Everton

Aston Villa V Sunderland

Sunderland V Stoke

Sunderland V Southampton

Tottenham V Sunderland

[kaiser soze]

Surprised and happy to see Sunderland are available at 12/5 for the drop. Here's their remaining fixture list:

Chelsea V Sunderland

Newcastle V Sunderland

Sunderland V Everton

Aston Villa V Sunderland

Sunderland V Stoke

Sunderland V Southampton

Tottenham V Sunderland

fletcher missing for rest of season, u would wonder were goals will come from now.

[KevIRL]

MON sacked

[The Situation]

Taking chunks out of Bayern tonight, Martinez a big loss imo, an area where they really needed him tonight considering Juve's cm strengths. Draw very likely imo.

[Percy007]

PSG are 8/11 in running to score a goal........ tyvm

[Jam-Fly]

Stoke are 8/1 to get relegated. Anyone think there's any value in it?

15th Stoke 32 34
16th Aston Villa 32 33
17th Sunderland32 31
18th Wigan 31 31

Stoke remaining fixtures:
H v Man U
A v QPR
H v Norwich City
A v Sunderland
H v Spurs
A v Southampton


Aston Villa remaining fixtures:
H v Fulham
A v Man U
H v Sunderland
A v Norwich
H v Chelsea
A v Wigan

Sunderland remaining fixtures:
A v Newcastle
H v Everton
A v Villa
H v Stoke
H v Southampton
A v Spurs

Wigan remaining fixtures:
A v City
A v West Ham
H v Spurs
A v West Brom
H v Swansea
A v Arsenal
H v Villa

[Opr]

In a similar vein I've been looking at the top 10 finish. Southampton fixtures list compared to the other main contenders for 9th/10th place is very favourable. They're also in really great form playing super football having just come off results beating Liverpool, Chelsea and Reading in the last three games. The swing game will more than likely be Swansea. The other teams around them with chances though have a far, far tougher run in. I just wish I'd backed them before the Reading game when I first looked at it.

Currently best priced 3/1

Southampton

West Ham (H)
Swansea (A)
West Brom (H)
Tottenham (A)
Sunderland (A)
Stoke (H)

Swansea

Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Wigan (A)
Man United (A)
Fulham (H)

Fulham

Aston Villa (A)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (H)
Everton (A)
Reading (H)
Liverpool (H)
Swansea (A)

Newcastle

Sunderland (H)
WestBrom (A)
Liverpool (H)
WestHam (A)
QPR (A)
Arsenal (H)

West Ham

Southamption (A)
Man United (H)
Wigan (H)
Man City (A)
Newcastle (H)
Everton (A)
Reading (H)

Opr

[briii1]

Backed Stoke to go down after they lost last week and took more after Saturday they were terrible.

Think 8/1 for Stoke will look pretty good on Saturday evening if United beat them which they should do,
Can see them being around the 5/1 mark after the weekend.

[actionbarman]

Man Utd 4/6 draw no bet tonight with boyles. Bit of value

[The Situation]

Thoughts on the over/under line in tonight game?

[smoothcall]

Thoughts on the over/under line in tonight game?

Looks about right to me, but I don't do those markets. Couldn't turn down Utd at 6/4, although Im not a big fan of it.

[Keane]

Seems to be on the drift in the last while.

[smoothcall]

Seems to be on the drift in the last while.

ye why i dont like it, almost certainly opposing clever money. id say a Fergi special team sheet on the way.

[KevIRL]

City : Hart; Zabaleta, Kompany (c), Nastasic, Clichy; Barry, Yaya Toure; Milner, Silva, Nasri; Tevez.

Utd : Man Utd XI: De Gea, Rafael, Vidic, Smalling, Evra, Welbeck, Carrick, Jones, Giggs, Rooney & Van Persie7

Very attacking Utd lineup there

[mugsy]

City : Hart; Zabaleta, Kompany (c), Nastasic, Clichy; Barry, Yaya Toure; Milner, Silva, Nasri; Tevez.

Utd : Man Utd XI: De Gea, Rafael, Vidic, Smalling, Evra, Welbeck, Carrick, Jones, Giggs, Rooney & Van Persie7

Very attacking Utd lineup there

suprised city didnt go with 2 upfront too. the nits. what have they to lose? mancini just wants a respectable result aka draw. this game could be a bore

[Jam-Fly]

Backed Stoke to go down after they lost last week and took more after Saturday they were terrible.

Think 8/1 for Stoke will look pretty good on Saturday evening if United beat them which they should do,
Can see them being around the 5/1 mark after the weekend.

yeah especially with Villa and Sunderland having very winnable games

[thedini]

City : Hart; Zabaleta, Kompany (c), Nastasic, Clichy; Barry, Yaya Toure; Milner, Silva, Nasri; Tevez.

Utd : Man Utd XI: De Gea, Rafael, Vidic, Smalling, Evra, Welbeck, Carrick, Jones, Giggs, Rooney & Van Persie7

Very attacking Utd lineup there

Where did you get the teamsheet?

Man Utd: De Gea, Da Silva, Ferdinand, Jones, Evra, Young, Carrick, Giggs, Welbeck, Rooney, van Persie. Subs: Lindegaard, Valencia, Hernandez, Nani, Cleverley, Kagawa, Buttner.

Man City: Hart, Zabaleta, Nastasic, Kompany, Clichy, Barry, Toure, Milner, Nasri, Silva, Tevez. Subs: Pantilimon, Lescott, Dzeko, Kolarov, Javi Garcia, Aguero, Toure.

[kaiser soze]

Looks like Vidic or Smalling out Jones playing centre half.

[Percy007]

Taking a bit of that 2/1 on United to score 1st

[eamonhonda]

on united at 11/8 and just went on them to score next @ 2/1.

[Flushdraw]

Taking a bit of that 2/1 on United to score 1st

Where did you get 2/1? Can't find anything near that price anywhere

[Percy007]

Where did you get 2/1? Can't find anything near that price anywhere

Paddypower

Edit: I see its 6/5 now had to be done in the HT break

Balls

[eamonhonda]

LOL me, GFYPP. If I wasnt on twitter at work it wouldnt have happened

[The Situation]

Got fairly raped on value before post team news drift but get in all the same

[Flushdraw]

What's going on at Blackburn? Just seen that they've fallen into the Championship relegation places. Since they beat Arsenal in the FA Cup, they've drawn 4 and lost 7 of their next 11 games. Must be worrying times with 6 games to go. Still to play Watford and Palace who are 3rd/4th and an important game against Huddersfield at home.

You can get 3/1 on them to go down. Will they survive eagle eye or anyone?

On the other hand, Blackpool are 4 points clear of the drop and a couple of the teams below them have a game in hand. They are 16/1 to go down. 2 of their last 3 games are away to Brighton and Bolton who are sitting 6th and 8th so both will be pushing for play off places. Next 2 games are home to Burnley and Sheff Wed so that's why they're 16/1, but if they don't pick up the points in those 2 games, i'd say they could be in a bit of trouble. Maybe worth a small punt?

[smoothcall]

Blackburns a complete mess of a club, there squad should be better than theyre doing but they're playing awful lately. 3/1 probably worth a punt, wouldn't do blackpool myself, cant see them going.

[The Situation]

Overs in Turin tonight.

[Percy007]

Some may laugh at this but im told to expect goals tonight in a friendly between Linfield and Rangers. They had a friendly in Windsor and Linfield donated the 100k gate to the new Rangers. McCoist has asked the Rangers fans to fill Ibrox tonight as a thank-you and im expecting it to be akin to a testimonial game. Im on over 4.5 goals @ 100/30 and a large both to score at 4/6 both with Skybet.

Edit: just kicked off

[Percy007]

Well that went according to plan

[Opr]

Interesting blog from Head of Football Trading at Coral - Nick Goff

http://gemsandrhinestones.com/

Opr

[smoothcall]

That blogs a load of horsepiss, you beat off-prices consistently and they cut you, simple as.

[Percy007]

Everton vs QPR both to score 1/1........ am i missing out on something team news wise? Should this not be a lot shorter?

[KevIRL]

Everton vs QPR both to score 1/1........ am i missing out on something team news wise? Should this not be a lot shorter?

Liking that myself Percy.

Also Liverpool -3 in the corner handicap v Reading @ evs. yum yum

[eamonhonda]

Liking that myself Percy.

Also Liverpool -3 in the corner handicap v Reading @ evs. yum yum

following both these.

also semi aftertiming but waiting on sligo tonight for 5 team accumulator in loi. drogs came back last night to keep me in it, had shams -1, sligo drogs derry pats

[Keane]

Ladbrokes doing moneyback on every market if City beat Chelsea. They must love City.

[eamonhonda]

Ladbrokes doing moneyback on every market if City beat Chelsea. They must love City.

as free bets...still great offer

[Percy007]

Liking that myself Percy.

Also Liverpool -3 in the corner handicap v Reading @ evs. yum yum

Careful with the corner bet Kev, Just a little stat to take into consideration:
Reading won race to 5 in 10/16 at home and Liverpool lost it in 6/16 away, which says to me the corner count could be tight if you take the average line being about 12 for corners.

[KevIRL]

A goal to be scored in each half all 5 EPL games today by either team 10/1 is this any use?

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=239489

[Percy007]

A goal to be scored in each half all 5 EPL games today by either team 10/1 is this any use?

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerp...grp_ids=239489

On it, well worth a score.

[eamonhonda]

Liking that myself Percy.

Also Liverpool -3 in the corner handicap v Reading @ evs. yum yum

nice call kev

[eamonhonda]

nice mugs accum came in yesterday. Passing some of profits onto a newcastle united - 1 double.

[Jam-Fly]

Backed Stoke to go down after they lost last week and took more after Saturday they were terrible.

Think 8/1 for Stoke will look pretty good on Saturday evening if United beat them which they should do,
Can see them being around the 5/1 mark after the weekend.

after shortened to around the 5/1 now. Great result in Sunderland match and you'd be hard pressed to see them getting anything off United.

[Emmet]

Overs 2.5 in Stoke Utd @ 19/20

thoughts?

Stoke weak through Shotton at right full & Wilkinson at left, Valencia and Kagawa feeding Rooney / RVP / LilP could reap rewards...

[Emmet]

ha, there's the first

[Percy007]

C+P from elsewhere that I found interesting.

SPOILER

Mansfield vs Wrexham

Mansfield finish top and get promoted if they win this. Wrexham are already in the playoffs and their top scorer Danny Wright dislocated his shoulder in the 1-1 draw vs Braintree last game.
Wrexham already have several key players injured and are trying to get them back for the playoffs next tues/wed.

Andy Morrell: "I simply can't send my strongest team to Mansfield on Saturday. The play-off on Tuesday or Wednesday is too important, so we'll have to suck it up and see.

"I don't want to hand the title to anybody, I don't want to do anything like that, I'll send what I can but I can't risk losing any more players because I haven't got 11 to put out."

This backs up what I've been told from 1 of their first teamers. AM has told the few 1st teamers that will be playin to 'not do anything stupid' as they need to be ready for a playoff battle over 2 legs starting next week. And told the younger lads that will get a chance to show him what they can do vs 'The Champions'

They are struggling and will be playing the reserves and kids here in hope to get their big players fresh for next week.

Matt Green for Mansfield is in great form scoring 8 in 6 games. He could have a field day - Mansfield will dominate these and celebrate going up in style infront of their home crowd.

Im on -1 @ 13/10 and -2 @ 7/2 with PP

[Dice75]

Lots & lots of draws in the 3pm PL games please for my scatter gun bet

[KevIRL]

Lots & lots of draws in the 3pm PL games please for my scatter gun bet

Lots of goals pls. PP Powerplay 40/1 on every team to score in todays 3pm games

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=239489

[Flushdraw]

Lots of goals pls. PP Powerplay 40/1 on every team to score in todays 3pm games

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerp...grp_ids=239489

This hasn't gone too well for the first 40 mins!

[Percy007]

C+P from elsewhere that I found interesting.

SPOILER

Mansfield vs Wrexham

Mansfield finish top and get promoted if they win this. Wrexham are already in the playoffs and their top scorer Danny Wright dislocated his shoulder in the 1-1 draw vs Braintree last game.
Wrexham already have several key players injured and are trying to get them back for the playoffs next tues/wed.

Andy Morrell: "I simply can't send my strongest team to Mansfield on Saturday. The play-off on Tuesday or Wednesday is too important, so we'll have to suck it up and see.

"I don't want to hand the title to anybody, I don't want to do anything like that, I'll send what I can but I can't risk losing any more players because I haven't got 11 to put out."

This backs up what I've been told from 1 of their first teamers. AM has told the few 1st teamers that will be playin to 'not do anything stupid' as they need to be ready for a playoff battle over 2 legs starting next week. And told the younger lads that will get a chance to show him what they can do vs 'The Champions'

They are struggling and will be playing the reserves and kids here in hope to get their big players fresh for next week.

Matt Green for Mansfield is in great form scoring 8 in 6 games. He could have a field day - Mansfield will dominate these and celebrate going up in style infront of their home crowd.

Im on -1 @ 13/10 and -2 @ 7/2 with PP

I give up

[FeetMagic]

Went to back Liverpool thinking they'd be close to 2s. Now contemplating a large bet on Chelsea 6/4 DNB.

[shano_88]

Does anyone think Chelsea are a lay to get top four? They have the toughest fixtures along with having the Europa league to play for. 1/5 on betfair.

[kaiser soze]

Lots of goals pls. PP Powerplay 40/1 on every team to score in todays 3pm games

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerp...grp_ids=239489

I often see this bet kev, i would like to know how often it actually came up this season, maybe someone can help with that.

[Opr]

Coutinho anytime goalscorer with Coral at 5/1 seems quite a big price.

btw Feetmagic they have draw no bet for Chelsea priced at 13/8.

Opr

[Percy007]

I often see this bet kev, i would like to know how often it actually came up this season, maybe someone can help with that.

Once, Sat 15th December.

[Percy007]

Coutinho anytime goalscorer with Coral at 5/1 seems quite a big price.

btw Feetmagic they have draw no bet for Chelsea priced at 13/8.

Opr

10/1 1st assist and 10/3 anytime assist for me today.

[Percy007]

Lpool next goal at 5/2 on pp before 2nd half starts

[merkum wallop]

Word that bookies not taking bets on crusaders v c'ville match. A lot of money on crusaders.