Originally posted by Downtown
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Originally posted by nicnicnic View Postdid you get paid ?
Surely they should of either cancelled or paid out on both bets.
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Originally posted by Downtown View PostReal strange. No problem until about 10 minutes after they teed off today, then all my bets on Colsaerts had been cancelled and refunded. My Rose bets were still open. Rose was suddenly all square so big sweat for about an hour thinking I might end up a big loser after all. Rose won and they paid out but said they didnt pay out on Colsaerts because bet wasnt supposed to be up as he had already teed off. Rose teed off ahead of him though so dont know what was going on.
Surely they should of either cancelled or paid out on both bets.
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Originally posted by nicnicnic View Postwho was it with ? I wasn't fancying you chances of getting paid tbh they'd be well within there rights to pull the palpable error rule - but yeah they should of cancelled both, strange
It's sounds unfair but hardly that strange. Bookies apply these rules to suit themselves
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I backed Fichart pre last week @ 26s and of all the threats i was looking at Sat night i thought Dewie would be the least (shows how much i know). Not to worry he paid me off big time a couple of weeks ago. Going for a few outsiders this week Ogilvy, Hansen and Howell III. Also a few € on Corks' Bradley @ 27s. Like the prices of the 'first round leader' for tonight Sergio @ 45 Westwood @ 39s and Phil @ 29s.
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I had €300 up on Betfair asking for 40s Adam Scott for the US Masters. He traded at 38s, then shot a closing 64 in Doral yesterday and his price is now 29 for the US Masters.
Age 32, played US Masters 11 times (!), 8th in 2012, 2nd in 2011, 2nd in British Open in 2012.
Schwartzel's four birdie finish in 2011 pipped Scott in the Masters.
Scott's four bogey finish in the Open last year handed it to Els.
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Originally posted by kincsem View PostI had €300 up on Betfair asking for 40s Adam Scott for the US Masters. He traded at 38s, then shot a closing 64 in Doral yesterday and his price is now 29 for the US Masters.
Age 32, played US Masters 11 times (!), 8th in 2012, 2nd in 2011, 2nd in British Open in 2012.
Schwartzel's four birdie finish in 2011 pipped Scott in the Masters.
Scott's four bogey finish in the Open last year handed it to Els.
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If you were inclined to punt someone in the Masters at this stage( I'm not), betfair fixed are clear best the top three in betting, 4/1 Woods 10/1 Rory 14/1 Phil
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
watch from 1.50 for some Phil magic
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Birdie machine Chris Kirk ticks all the right boxes this week. Four rounds in the mid-sixties here in 2011 saw him in a tie for second place behind Phil Mickelson and it's definitely a course that will suit. Kirk ranks 4th in par four birdies this season, an eye catching 1st in approaches from 125-150 yards and 10th in putting from 5-15'. Best price 40s now.
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Irish Times Fantasy Golf is open for registration. I've started a private league @ €20 a head if anyone's interested.
Here's the link to set yourself up with a team. http://fantasygolf.irishtimes.com/I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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Y'all talk a good game in here, annual Masters Comp here http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...382#post691382
roll up
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I didn't back Adam Scott for the US Masters as his price dropped. My current choice is Webb Simpson on offer at 100s on Betfair.
I had a look at the longest drives on the PGA tour this year. You probably saw on TV Phil Mickelson hit the longest drive in 2013 of 450 yards, most of it along a golf buggy track.
I decided to count how many long drives (pgatour.com) players hit. The site lists the top 999 drives, with 335 yards the shortest drive counting. Dustin Johnson has 34 drives in the list. My idea is you need to hit long drives at Augusta, and a player who consistently hits 335+ yards might be a contender. Afaik long drives do not need to end in the fairway to count in the list. Hitting long drives is also a sign of confidence in your swing. Tiger Woods doesn't hit many long drives, probably because he keeps the driver in the bag. And some of the players do not play the US Tour (much) so didn't have the opportunity.
The list is edited to remove the long hitters who did not qualify for the US masters.
SPOILER
PLAYER____________Count__Odds
Johnson, Dustin_______34____36
Watson, Bubba_______32____44
Piercy, Scott_________32____390
Bradley, Keegan_______26____36
Simpson, Webb_______20____100
Pettersson, Carl_______19____440
Cabrera, Angel________17____120
Watney, Nick__________16____85
Garrigus, Robert_______16____280
Woodland, Gary________16____640
Stanley, Kyle__________14____750
Leishman, Marc________14____840
Colsaerts, Nicolas______12____110
Poulter, Ian___________11____55
Fowler, Rickie_________11____60
Dufner, Jason_________11____85
Wagner, Johnson_______11____960
Curtis, Ben___________10____690
Day, Jason____________9____64
Stricker, Steve________9____70
Haas, Bill_____________9____90
Snedeker, Brandt______8____38
Kuchar, Matt__________8____40
Mahan, Hunter_________8____55
Johnson, Zach_________8____180
Huh, John_____________8____580
O'Hair, Sean__________8____640
Singh, Vijay___________6____340
Moore, Ryan___________6____350
Baddeley, Aaron_______6____440
Potter, Jr, Ted________6____920
McIlroy, Rory__________4____12
Mickelson, Phil________4____14
Harrington, Padraig____4____80
Coetzee, George_______4____130
Howell III, Charles_____4____250
Grace, Branden________4____330
Henley, Russell________4____380
Overton, Jeff_________4____390
Streelman, Kevin______4____510
Westwood, Lee________3____30
Oosthuizen, Louis______3____32
Glover, Lucas_________3____690
Woods, Tiger__________2____5
Schwartzel, Charl_____2____29
Hanson, Peter_________2____100
Choi, K J ____________2____130
Jacobson, Freddie_____2____150
Cink, Stewart_________2____250
Ishikawa, Ryo_________2____560
Na, Kevin_____________2____650
Rose, Justin__________1____23
Scott, Adam__________1____32
Garcia, Sergio________1____46
Stenson, Henrik_______1____65
Kaymer, Martin________1____150
Van Pelt, Bo__________1____150
Els, Ernie____________1____170
Olesen, Thorbjorn_____1____210
Yang, Y E ____________1____340
Laird, Martin_________1____420
Merrick, John_________1____430
Thompson, Michael_____1____510
Donaldson, Jamie______1____520
Gay, Brian____________1____680
Noh, Seung-Yul________1____810
Donald, Luke__________0____44
McDowell, Graeme______0____70
Furyk, Jim____________0____90
Sterne, Richard_______0____250
Molinari, Francesco____0____260
Manassero, Matteo_____0____280
Couples, Fred_________0____280
Ogilvy, Geoff_________0____280
Clark, Tim____________0____320
Points, D A___________0____330
Goosen, Retief________0____370
Fernandez-Castano, Gon0____410
Senden, John__________0____480
Immelman, Trevor______0____530
Bjorn, Thomas_________0____550
Lawrie, Paul__________0____570
Toms. David___________0____680
Byrd, Jonathan________0____680
Lynn, David___________0____710
Karlsson, Robert______0____800
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Originally posted by kincsem View PostI didn't back Adam Scott for the US Masters as his price dropped. My current choice is Webb Simpson on offer at 100s on Betfair.
I had a look at the longest drives on the PGA tour this year. You probably saw on TV Phil Mickelson hit the longest drive in 2013 of 450 yards, most of it along a golf buggy track.
I decided to count how many long drives (pgatour.com) players hit. The site lists the top 999 drives, with 335 yards the shortest drive counting. Dustin Johnson has 34 drives in the list. My idea is you need to hit long drives at Augusta, and a player who consistently hits 335+ yards might be a contender. Afaik long drives do not need to end in the fairway to count in the list. Hitting long drives is also a sign of confidence in your swing. Tiger Woods doesn't hit many long drives, probably because he keeps the driver in the bag. And some of the players do not play the US Tour (much) so didn't have the opportunity.
The list is edited to remove the long hitters who did not qualify for the US masters.
SPOILER
PLAYER____________Count__Odds
Johnson, Dustin_______34____36
Watson, Bubba_______32____44
Piercy, Scott_________32____390
Bradley, Keegan_______26____36
Simpson, Webb_______20____100
Pettersson, Carl_______19____440
Cabrera, Angel________17____120
Watney, Nick__________16____85
Garrigus, Robert_______16____280
Woodland, Gary________16____640
Stanley, Kyle__________14____750
Leishman, Marc________14____840
Colsaerts, Nicolas______12____110
Poulter, Ian___________11____55
Fowler, Rickie_________11____60
Dufner, Jason_________11____85
Wagner, Johnson_______11____960
Curtis, Ben___________10____690
Day, Jason____________9____64
Stricker, Steve________9____70
Haas, Bill_____________9____90
Snedeker, Brandt______8____38
Kuchar, Matt__________8____40
Mahan, Hunter_________8____55
Johnson, Zach_________8____180
Huh, John_____________8____580
O'Hair, Sean__________8____640
Singh, Vijay___________6____340
Moore, Ryan___________6____350
Baddeley, Aaron_______6____440
Potter, Jr, Ted________6____920
McIlroy, Rory__________4____12
Mickelson, Phil________4____14
Harrington, Padraig____4____80
Coetzee, George_______4____130
Howell III, Charles_____4____250
Grace, Branden________4____330
Henley, Russell________4____380
Overton, Jeff_________4____390
Streelman, Kevin______4____510
Westwood, Lee________3____30
Oosthuizen, Louis______3____32
Glover, Lucas_________3____690
Woods, Tiger__________2____5
Schwartzel, Charl_____2____29
Hanson, Peter_________2____100
Choi, K J ____________2____130
Jacobson, Freddie_____2____150
Cink, Stewart_________2____250
Ishikawa, Ryo_________2____560
Na, Kevin_____________2____650
Rose, Justin__________1____23
Scott, Adam__________1____32
Garcia, Sergio________1____46
Stenson, Henrik_______1____65
Kaymer, Martin________1____150
Van Pelt, Bo__________1____150
Els, Ernie____________1____170
Olesen, Thorbjorn_____1____210
Yang, Y E ____________1____340
Laird, Martin_________1____420
Merrick, John_________1____430
Thompson, Michael_____1____510
Donaldson, Jamie______1____520
Gay, Brian____________1____680
Noh, Seung-Yul________1____810
Donald, Luke__________0____44
McDowell, Graeme______0____70
Furyk, Jim____________0____90
Sterne, Richard_______0____250
Molinari, Francesco____0____260
Manassero, Matteo_____0____280
Couples, Fred_________0____280
Ogilvy, Geoff_________0____280
Clark, Tim____________0____320
Points, D A___________0____330
Goosen, Retief________0____370
Fernandez-Castano, Gon0____410
Senden, John__________0____480
Immelman, Trevor______0____530
Bjorn, Thomas_________0____550
Lawrie, Paul__________0____570
Toms. David___________0____680
Byrd, Jonathan________0____680
Lynn, David___________0____710
Karlsson, Robert______0____800
I think it's a myth that length is crucial to winning at Augusta. I mean to say that length is no more an important factor than at any other PGA event or Major. Given the fact that 13/15 in particular are reachable par 5s for all the field, I would argue that length is an overvalued factor. Granted a lot of the past winners were big hitters in recent years Cabera, Woods, Mickelson, Watson etc but they were all proven winners before winning and very much fancied to do well. Not many "novelty distance" players have ever done well. On the flip side, guys like Mike Weir and Trevor Immeleman have won while each year shorter hitters like Donald are able to challenge.
I think having a Draw ball flight, solid putting and good wedge and short game play are more important factors. Also it's a horses for courses game, past form and experience of the course is also a good indicator. Woods, McIlroy, Mickelson tick all the boxes but too short a price for Woods and lack of form for the other two wouldn't have me on them.Garcia, Bradley, Johnson, Bubba, Mahan tick most of the boxes but concerns over Garcia's putting, Bradley/Johnson/Bubba/Mahan form. Hard to find a flaw in Rose but think his putting isn't consistent enough from 8ft and in.
My picks ;
Kuchar
Fowler
Hanson
SnedekerLast edited by Downtown; 07-04-13, 16:25.
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US Masters
Back_______________Odds____Stake______Profit
Russell Henley_______360_____20.00______7,180.50
Kevin Na____________667.2___20.00_____13,324.60
Francesco Molinari____305____34.61_____10,520.49
Paul Lawrie__________560____20.00_____11,180.50
Jason Day____________66.4___68.40______4,473.60
Michael Thompson____460_____24.00____11,016.00
Nicolas Colsaerts_____120_____53.07______6,315.33
Webb Simpson_______102.1__207.34_____20,960.06
Lay________________Odds____Stake_____Liability
Francesco Molinari____260_____11.07_____2,867.13
Nicolas Colsaerts_____110_____33.00_____3,597.00
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Basically Snedeker, Fowler and Stricker for me for some sweatage
Also I just couldn't not put a bet on Ernie when I saw he was 125s. Surely with his record around Augusta that is value for each way purposes and 9/1 for top ten. The Open last year might give him confidence going into more majors.Redbet at the Dublin Poker Invasion FTW
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Can't see past TW, the machine is well and truly back on track. PP now gone 4/1.
A guy who's performed pretty well there in the last couple of years is Bo Van Pelt he's priced @ 110/1 (6 places)
It's quite generous for this consistent performer and looks good e/w value.
Rose, Schwartzel & McDowell make up the rest of my team..."the impossible is often untried"
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Originally posted by Downtown View PostI'm not sure this is a relevant stat for this week. McIlroy and Tiger hit it as far as anyone and rank way down in that list. Also it's not quite a an accurate reflection because not all golfers on the list have played as many rounds as each other. For example Colstaerts has played maybe 8-12 rounds on the PGA Tour this year which would be far far lower than any of the higher ranking players.
I think it's a myth that length is crucial to winning at Augusta. I mean to say that length is no more an important factor than at any other PGA event or Major. Given the fact that 13/15 in particular are reachable par 5s for all the field, I would argue that length is an overvalued factor. Granted a lot of the past winners were big hitters in recent years Cabera, Woods, Mickelson, Watson etc but they were all proven winners before winning and very much fancied to do well. Not many "novelty distance" players have ever done well. On the flip side, guys like Mike Weir and Trevor Immeleman have won while each year shorter hitters like Donald are able to challenge.
I think having a Draw ball flight, solid putting and good wedge and short game play are more important factors. Also it's a horses for courses game, past form and experience of the course is also a good indicator. Woods, McIlroy, Mickelson tick all the boxes but too short a price for Woods and lack of form for the other two wouldn't have me on them.Garcia, Bradley, Johnson, Bubba, Mahan tick most of the boxes but concerns over Garcia's putting, Bradley/Johnson/Bubba/Mahan form. Hard to find a flaw in Rose but think his putting isn't consistent enough from 8ft and in.
My picks ;
Kuchar
Fowler
Hanson
Snedeker
That should rule out short hitters as in Poulter, McDowell and Donald.
my picks so far
Keegan Bradley
Padraigh Harrington
Phil Mickleson
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Originally posted by connie147 View PostLength will definately have something to play in it. When Weir and Immellman won it, it was before they lengthened the course. Also, in Augusta, they purposely grow the grass "against" the golfer and hence cut down on the run the golf ball gets. Thats why last year, Bubba averaged 290 with his driving at the masters, yet his average on the PGA tour was 315 yards, so it was cutting 25 yards on ave off the drive.
That should rule out short hitters as in Poulter, McDowell and Donald.
my picks so far
Keegan Bradley
Padraigh Harrington
Phil Mickleson
I also think that Augusta is Poulters best chance at a major. He has never been outside the top 30, has 2 top 10s in the last 3 years. He could well be a factor this week too. Donald also has been in contention at Augusta. His best finish in a major I think was at Augusta finishing a shot back in 2010 or 2011. Zach Johnson won in 2007 after the changes were made.others like KJ Choi have enjoyed success. Shorter hitters have always competed well at Augusta.
The players who hold out the most from 8ft and have the better short games, solid greens in regulation do best. Distance off the tee makes it easier to play for sure it's not the defining factor.
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From Channing's bettingemporium site - US Masters Preview by Ollie Noonan
<snip> text removed
OprLast edited by KevIRL; 10-04-13, 20:33.
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Originally posted by poprock View PostOpr
I think Channing deserves for people to register for his site
considering all the work he puts in and provides it for free
Maybe just a Link?
Opr
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Guest
Was staying well out of this but Paddy roped me in with 6 places and a free bet
(the bastards)
Tiger 5pts @9/2
Charl 2.5pts ew @25/1
Justin 1.5 pts ew @ 18/1
Freddie Jacobsen 1pt ew @100/1
The shower of &%$£^&
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Also, for anyone in the Louth/Galway area, Bar One are paying 1/4 odds 7 places ew. Maximum bet though at those place terms is €50ew per player.Last edited by NewApproach; 10-04-13, 15:54.
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Originally posted by Downtown View PostStenson looking like he ticks alot of the right boxes. 1st in Greens, 1st in driving accuracy , 1st in scrambling and 1st in putts <5ft.
MY STATS ERROR: When I said earlier Webb Simpson had a large number of the longest drives I was right. But where I was wrong is saying that makes him a long driver. A close look at the longest drives page on pgatour.com shows that a very high number (over 50%) of all the long drives so far in 2013 were at the Hyundai Tournament Of Champions at Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii (an invite tournament restricted to 30 players). I saw on TV that some of the holes on that course are steeply downhill. Downhill with a following wind gives a big drive.
DOUBTFUL STENSON STATS: I looked at the Henrik Stenson stats: 2nd driving accuracy, 1st greens in regulation, 1st scrambling. They were on Stenson's individual stats page. I then looked at the overall stats page for all players and did not find him there. My guess is he has played a small number of events to date in 2013 and I see his stats percentages for those events are very good, better even than 1st place in the overall. But players probably need a minimum number of events to be listed in the overall.
Anyway I'm going off Webb Simpson and putting more on Jason Day. Good Luck with your bets.
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US Masters weather forecast here (about a mile from the course)
Windfinder.com - Detailed wind & weather forecast for Augusta Regional Airport at Bush Field / Georgia, United States of America for kitesurfing, windsurfing, sailing, fishing & hiking.
For a more accurate forecast click Super Forecast above the data.
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Originally posted by poprock View PostOpr
I think Channing deserves for people to register for his site
considering all the work he puts in and provides it for free
Maybe just a Link?Originally posted by Opr View PostYeah I completely agree with that in fairness. I'll just post links in future. I do think though that the advertisement that he gets through the forum from me posting his stuff that I doubt he would be complaining too much. The only reason I posted the whole thing was the last few times I posted just the link someone after me posted the whole article so I thought I might as well fire up the whole thing.
Opr
Fair point lads, but I think to be fair to the site its best if we link to it. Its free to reg so no harm in allowing them getting some new sign ups. More articles up there today btw from Channing on the golf
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DJ, Westwood and Snedeker are my main picks, backed a few others at big prices hoping to lay.
Freddie Jacobson @ 110
Richard Sterne @ 170
Garrigus @ 260
Russell Henley @ 330
Scott Piercy @ 320
David Lynn @ 590
I love the round leader markets, the weather tomorrow will suit the early birds so I've backed five of them with a sweat saver on Hunter Mahan @65 in case all horses fall.
Rose @ 19.5
Snedeker @ 44
Freddie Jac @ 100
Russell Henley @ 130
Scott Piercy @ 130 This could go either way, he could be dazzled in the headlights on his Masters debut, paired up with Tiger or those two factors may spur him on, he's a boomer off the tee so fingers crossed.I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that
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