FIFA World Cup 2014 - Brazil

[Flushdraw]

Have quite a sizeable bet on Netherlands to be caught offside more times than Argentina at Evs. Argies only caught offside twice all tournament, Netherlands 21. Couple of other things to consider, but all in all, seems like a good bet. Got my Germany/Netherlands forecast at 11/1 too, so funking for the Dutch.

[TheDrunkenOne]

time to buy goals scored again @ 2.35

dont think I will get 8 goals tonight lol

[Starvin Marvin]

Dutch supremacy.

[Johnny Tightlips]

Have quite a sizeable bet on Netherlands to be caught offside more times than Argentina at Evs. Argies only caught offside twice all tournament, Netherlands 21. Couple of other things to consider, but all in all, seems like a good bet. Got my Germany/Netherlands forecast at 11/1 too, so funking for the Dutch.

Where did you get that bet? I Cant find it anywhere

[Flushdraw]

Where did you get that bet? I Cant find it anywhere

Bwin

7/9 now

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/netherlands-v-argentina/most-offsides

[Kenny]

On Holland -1

[Flushdraw]

Enough with the offsides already ffs Argentina!

[TheDrunkenOne]

early goal 2nd half plz

[bantee]

Terrible game, all bets pretty much fucked.

[Flushdraw]

Brazil 9/1 to win World Cup 2018. Have they got a crop of youngsters coming through?

[Flushdraw]

4-4 in offside ffs. I presume this bet is 90 mins rather than the tie? It didn't specify so i'm guessing it does sigh.

[Jibzzzz]

Hoping for penos for the MBS on PP

[TheDrunkenOne]

also hoping for penalties and intend selling at most likely 7pts odd

[hotspur]

also hoping for penalties and intend selling at most likely 7pts odd

Did you make a killing last night buying goals?

[TheDrunkenOne]

Did you make a killing last night buying goals?

yes but lost today buying them lol

[Teddie]

Really want to steam into Holland, especially when it comes to penos.

[mdoug]

really expected tonight to be boring.. but my fucking god!!!

I expect at least 3/10 peno's missed too if they even get to 10. My only bet in this game was <2.5 at 1.64 and only bet that because was hoping for a messi brace.. fucking boring teams! Germany have been much more deserving of the title this year, really hope they win and not just for my bets

[TheDrunkenOne]

selling pens for 7.7

creating my own excitement

[shano1888]

Holland to win on penos at 11s. Every dutch peno was immaculate lto so would fancy them if it goes distance.

lol.

[Johnny Tightlips]

Saved myself by getting argentina at 6/1 to win on penalties at ht. Joey barton is having some tournament, predicted germany to win easy last night and the argies to win by penalties tonight

[Jibzzzz]

hmmmm maybe PP were not doing the MBS??

[Jam-Fly]

hmmmm maybe PP were not doing the MBS??

often takes 24hrs for those type things to be credited. 99% sure they were doing it.

[TonyCascarino]

They were doing the money back special. I had such an array of embarrassing bets on the match that I have emailed paddy power to decline my pending refund. Such classics included 3-2 argentina and of course, the pièce de rèsistance...4-3 argentina. Sigh.

[mdoug]

They were doing the money back special. I had such an array of embarrassing bets on the match that I have emailed paddy power to decline my pending refund. Such classics included 3-2 argentina and of course, the pièce de rèsistance...4-3 argentina. Sigh.

wtf

[Jam-Fly]

Thoughts on Golden Ball winner?
If Argentina win, I assume they'll give it to Messi even though he hasn't been fantastic in the knockout stages. Mascherano at 33/1 is the only half tempting price but can't see any sequence of events where he actually wins it.
If Germany win, I assume performance in final will be a big factor. Neuer and Muller would be the two obvious candidates. Hummels available at 75s too which seems tempting.
Any chance of James getting it if Germany win in unconvincing fashion?

[Jibzzzz]

Thoughts on Golden Ball winner?
If Argentina win, I assume they'll give it to Messi even though he hasn't been fantastic in the knockout stages. Mascherano at 33/1 is the only half tempting price but can't see any sequence of events where he actually wins it.
If Germany win, I assume performance in final will be a big factor. Neuer and Muller would be the two obvious candidates. Hummels available at 75s too which seems tempting.
Any chance of James getting it if Germany win in unconvincing fashion?

Muller at 3s and Kroos @20s look the best to me.

[mdoug]

Neuer ftw

[Jibzzzz]

Neuer ftw

Gots him at 6s for the glove so happy to avoid him.

[Flushdraw]

had a look at the Player of the Tournament market. Anyone that has Bet365, Neuer is 200/1 there.

Justifying 200/1 shots is always a bit ridiculous but....
If Germany go deep, you'd have to think Neuer will be a big part of it. Ideally, you'd want an all-round good team performance with a sharing of the goals for Germany (likely as there's a lot of goalscoring midfielders in the German team) and heroic performances from Neuer behind a team that leaves a lot to be desired defensively (imo. Low is a poor coach imo and Germany are set up to give teams more of a chance than they should. So that leads to the conclusion that if they are to progress, the keeper would need to be in top form).
Germany go far or win the tournament, and there's no great standout performers for any other team (Brazil flop, Spain grind it out, Messi isn't the superstar for Argentina, Ronaldo goes out at the group stage, and every other team's good performance is a result of the manager).
Also, if Germany get to the final, I 100% guarantee Neuer will have had a good tournament and the pundits will all be talking about Kahn in 2002 and how after such a great tournament he made a mistake in the final. If Germany go on to win, Neuer will have done what Kahn could not and will be the German hero and naturally be awarded the player of the tournament.


So there you go, a 200/1 shot that's effectively even money

Might have a little bit of a sweat with this.

[mugsy]

paddy power dont go by the golden boot winner for topgoalscorer the snakes. I was thinking i need one goal from muller to win but is considered a dead heat if tied. joke 2 in the final is a bit of an ask now.

[Jam-Fly]

Might have a little bit of a sweat with this.

Hopefully! A win on penalties for Germany in the final or a clean sheet with some great saves should put him in decent position. Neuer denying Messi in the final would be the great story of the final too which only helps his chances.


On a contrary note, Romero available at 8.8 for the Golden Glove. If he has a great final and Argentina win, any chance of him getting it?

[Warper]

paddy power dont go by the golden boot winner for topgoalscorer the snakes. I was thinking i need one goal from muller to win but is considered a dead heat if tied. joke 2 in the final is a bit of an ask now.

PP are right. Every bookie does this. They are 2 separate markets, hence had different prices

[mugsy]

PP are right. Every bookie does this. They are 2 separate markets, hence had different prices

was there different markets? i cant see there being much difference. only applies if goalscorers are tied and assists are used. what were these different prices you mention so.

some bookies just pay out on golden boot winner not make up there own rules.

[Dobber]

was there different markets? i cant see there being much difference. only applies if goalscorers are tied and assists are used. what were these different prices you mention so.

some bookies just pay out on golden boot winner not make up there own rules.

The market on PP is very clearly for Top Goalscorer and not Golden Boot. It also says at the top of the market that dead heat rules apply. Pay attention IMO. Not sure how they can be any clearer....

Top goalscorer in a competition will be settled in accordance with dead heat rules if players finish on the same number of goals scored, regardless of whether an official result is determined by other means by the sports ruling body. FIFA’s awarding of the Golden Boot in the event of players being tied on the same number of goals will have no bearing on our settlement of the market. We will settle the market in accordance with our normal dead heat rules.

[kaiser soze]

This has always been the case with top scorer, I think I nearly lost money a couple of years ago on a major tournament on a top scorer when there was 5 or more players on the same goals. I can't remember if it was the euros or not but I think Torres was one of them.

[Dice75]

This has always been the case with top scorer, I think I nearly lost money a couple of years ago on a major tournament on a top scorer when there was 5 or more players on the same goals. I can't remember if it was the euros or not but I think Torres was one of them.

Euro 2012, 6 tied on 3 goals. 1/6th the odds, sighballs. Had a 125/1 shot joint top.

Have Neymar E/W at 14s in this, currently 4 clear at top so funking for RVP & Robben to be rested for the 3/4th game

[Percy007]

At Maracana. Fifa confirms Nicola Rizzoli referees the #WorldCup final. #ger v #arg

Any good for you FD?

[White Knight]

Golden ball shortlist

[Percy007]

Neuer should be on that list imo

[White Knight]

Might have a little bit of a sweat with this.

Might want to look for a refund?

[White Knight]

Golden Glove ...

[Flushdraw]

At Maracana. Fifa confirms Nicola Rizzoli referees the #WorldCup final. #ger v #arg

Any good for you FD?

Sigh, that's shit. 5th best results for me. Been watching the market for 2 days now and backing guys and laying off. I made a profit, but he wasn't one of the big hitters. Had some on him at 6.6 but that was it. The order i wanted was Irmatov, Eriksson, Geiger, Nishimura, Rizzoli

[Jam-Fly]

Might want to look for a refund?

Jesus that's retarded if true (and I'm not saying this just because I have a bet on Neuer). Should top goalscorers be exempt from the Golden Ball too? It's the same logic. Split it into best GK/Def/Mid/Att if you want to do that, you can't just say GKs aren't eligible for best player in the tournament, it's very unfair on them.

[Jam-Fly]

Took a bit of Hummels at 95 on Betfair anyway for Golden Ball. If Germany win the World Cup, there's no clear stand out performer in the team. Muller obviously has scored the most goals and would probably win it (particularly if he scores in the final) but think a big performance from Hummels could get lots calling for him to get it. Have James too, so if there really is no standout player in the Germany team, I'm guessing he'd be the defunct next option.

[Flushdraw]

Never really backed/layed on Betfair. Did a bit on that referee market where i've laid off my main guy 3 times and backed the winning ref. There's nothing in my account still, and there's a yellow box beside my profit/liability offering me to cash out. It won't let me though and it says 'This may be a funding issue'. That amount has dropped by ~€8 in the last hour. What's the story generally?

[Dice75]

De Guzman @ 17/2 on PP anytime, playing the 10 role tonight. Lots of goals please.

[Flushdraw]

Brazil HT/FT and Draw HT/Germany FT tomorrow in singles and a double for me to finish off.

[mdoug]

Never really backed/layed on Betfair. Did a bit on that referee market where i've laid off my main guy 3 times and backed the winning ref. There's nothing in my account still, and there's a yellow box beside my profit/liability offering me to cash out. It won't let me though and it says 'This may be a funding issue'. That amount has dropped by ~€8 in the last hour. What's the story generally?

I will explain it more when on pc but it is all about the odds offered. Normally if the result is in the odds offered are 1000 and you pay €1 per 1000 you want to cash out, but in your case obviously the odds fluctuated and the price changes. Let it ride and just take the moula once it finishes. Cashing out in a football game win-draw-win i find very handy but elsewhere i almost always avoid

[Guest]

Slight after timing but went Holland -1 in a single and Holland -1 nd Germany -1 double plus have Germany in a sweep so Germany to win by 2 or more please

[dobby]

Muller fgs and 3-1 Germany. 66/1. Will finish the WC in profit regardless of this games result so happy days

[TheDrunkenOne]

Hmmm, think Brazil's humilation will be completed as Argentina win the cup so as spread is Ger/Arg 0.2/0.4 gonna sell

[ArmaniJeans]

some bookies just pay out on golden boot winner not make up there own rules.

Not sure where you are getting this from, generally all bookmakers have always paid out on 'Top Goalscorer' only and ignore the golden boot. Can't see how this qualifies as 'making up their own rules'.

[Percy007]

BBC have done great shows on every World Cup so far during this World Cup. Anyhow was watching their show on the 2010 final, was a great show but it was like a fly on the wall doc and showed the refs changing room etc. Howard Webb and his team were briefed before the game by an official telling him to keep the cards in his pocket as it's a highly charged occasion and to give the players every chance. I expect the same will happen this evening so I may concentrate on that market.

[The Situation]

BBC have done great shows on every World Cup so far during this World Cup. Anyhow was watching their show on the 2010 final, was a great show but it was like a fly on the wall doc and showed the refs changing room etc. Howard Webb and his team were briefed before the game by an official telling him to keep the cards in his pocket as it's a highly charged occasion and to give the players every chance. I expect the same will happen this evening so I may concentrate on that market.

I'm pretty sure this briefing happened before the tournament. Markets have very much factored in the leniency variable by now.

[Jam-Fly]

No real footballing reason to think this, but the market seems to be overreacting a bit to Germany's form, could be value in Argentina's price?

I think if the game is level after 90, it favours the Germans, but in 90 mins, I think it's 50-50, not much to pick between the two teams. Any overall advantages Germany have I think is negated by the fact Argentina have Messi. Going with draw at FT I suppose. Germany to lift the Cup then I guess but it's all to play for.

[Flushdraw]

Muller pls just do your thing. Instead of backing Messi to score anytime, you could probably just back him in the Player of the Tournament market. He'd almost be a shoe in to pick up the award with a Final goal, so it's a much better chance. I'm hoping he blanks and Muller gets a couple to give him the honours. FGS too pls!

[Jam-Fly]

Neuer surely would've been as legitimate a winner of the Golden Ball as anyone?

Hoping it goes to James Rodriguez now.

[KevIRL]

Just read on FB that Messi got player of the tournament. lol

[Jam-Fly]

Neuer surely would've been as legitimate a winner of the Golden Ball as anyone?

Hoping it goes to James Rodriguez now.

Messi getting Golden Ball it seems

[Jibzzzz]

Took a bit of Di Maria most assists @18/1 and player of tourney @34/1.
Went for Fred top goalscorer @20/1 and James Rrodriguez e/w @100/1 is very decent value.

Also on Argentina now too @4/1

GET THE FUCK IN!!!!!!

SPOILER