Bad beat/Moaning/Venting thread - Mammy told me not to come.

[Raoul Duke III]

Historically dreadful - completely agreed.

It would be interesting of course to rank the last 40 years of UK government in terms of best to worst.

Or indeed the Irish ones.

And American.

Trivia challenge of the day

UK Governments
1979-83: Conservative (Thatcher)
1983-87; Conservative (Thatcher)
1987-92: Conservative (Thatcher-Major)
1992-97: Conservative (Major)
1997-01: Labour (Blair)
2001-05: Labour (Blair)
2005-10: Labour (Blair-Brown)
2010-15: Conservative\LD (Cameron)
2015-19: Conservative (Cameron\May)
2019-: Conservative (Johnson

Irish governments
1977-81: FF (Lynch-Haughey)
1981-82: FG\LAB (Fitzgerlad)
1982: FF (Haughey)
1982-87: FG\LAB (Fitzgerald)
1987-89: FF (Haughey)
1989-92: FF\PD (Haughey-Reynolds)
1992-97: Rainbow (Bruton)
1997:02: FF-PD (Ahern)
2002-07: FF-PD (Ahern
2007-11: FF-PD-GP (Ahern-Cowen)
2011-16: FG-LAB (Kenny)
2016-20: FG Minority (Kenny-Varadkar)

American Presidencies
1980-84: Reagan (GOP)
1984-88: Reagan (GOP)
1988-92: Bush Snr (GOP)
1992-96: Clinton (DEM)
1996-00-Clinton (DEM)
2000-04: Bush Jnr ((GOP)
2004-08: Bush Jnr (GOP)
2008-12: Obama (DEM)
2012-16: Obama (DEM)
2016-20: Trump (GOP)

Interestingly I think each list has both a clear best and worst.

Rank away! You bunch of rankers....

[Silver-Tiger]

Just bought the coffee grinder on Amazon

Est Date of Delivery is 20/04


If i get the bus to work i jump off at the bottom of Clanbrassil St and walk up towards Stephen's Green.

I stop in Clanbrassil House coffee shop, Daniel (before it closed) or fumbally and get a cup of the most delicious coffee each time.

I want to replicate that cup as i'll be WFH for the long run. I've bought the grinder. What is next?

[Closed_Account]

Reports from Russia that vast majority of admissions are now between 18 and 40 year olds. Is there any reason that would be?

Brandon Adam's did a podcast with Doug Polk, always thought he was a weird dude who prob killed hookers in his spare time but was quite intersting. He said there, and I'd 100% be in the camp that we should face up to the reality that there is a significant mathematical chance society, law and order and everything we know could break. I personally think it's extremely likely but figuring out out what to do about that possibility is something else entirely.

[ArmaniJeans]

Discovered a homeless guy sleeping in the old stables at the back of my property this morning.

He doesn't show any signs of drug use etc, just a standard down on his luck for. Says he's an alcoholic.

Was apparently sleeping in a tent locally and the Gardai moved him on but arranged for a hostel bed.
He left after one night, said it was eight people on bunks in one room and figured that with all the coughing he'd catch something plus woke up to one lad searching under his pillow for valuables.

My instincts say he's sound but I'm effectively losing access to the garden which feels petty when I say it out loud.

What's my play?

Tricky, it's nice to be nice and all that, but if you let him stay there you leave yourself open to issues with insurance if something happens to him.

Can you give him a few sandwiches and give him some of those clothes you intended to bring to the charity shop (everyone has them) and send him on his way, making it clear that you won't be able to be as nice if he reappears?

[LuckyLloyd]

RE: German death rates. Unless I am misunderstood their low rate is got to do with how they are categorising deaths i.e. if you have an ingrown toe nail and coronoavirus and you die then your death is reported as being attributed to the ingrown toenail?

They have been assigning deaths to comorbidities. The U.K are starting to do the same thing. I don’t know the specifics of how the Germans are doing it, but the U.K. are trying to determine whether they think the victim would have died of something else within the next 12 months. They report figures for a 5pm to 5pm period up to the previous day, meaning they have a decent period to play around with the data before they declare it.

You can argue the rights or wrongs of the above, but when individual nations are handling data so differently it makes comparisons incredibly difficult. So many variant approaches to testing, triage, hospital management, social protocols, etc. In an ideal world the EU would take direction from a centralised body like the ECDC and we’d be able to compare and learn from each other but that isn’t happening.

[Raoul Duke III]

He said there, and I'd 100% be in the camp that we should face up to the reality that there is a significant mathematical chance society, law and order and everything we know could break. I personally think it's extremely likely but figuring out out what to do about that possibility is something else entirely.

Looking at the societal response to date, you are wrong and all the indicators are of increased cohesiveness.

It's the same phenomenon as wartime, people pull together in extreme circumstances.

[ArmaniJeans]

Reports from Russia that vast majority of admissions are now between 18 and 40 year olds. Is there any reason that would be?

Perhaps they've made an unofficial decision to concentrate on saving young people, hence they target both their testing and thus their ICU at that age bracket. Effectively abandoning older people to their fate.
It's probably an economically sound policy (albeit morally abhorrent).

[Guest]

^^ I have this exact one, works great. Keep a new paintbrush handy to sweep up the dust that will fly around and also use it to clean the output nozzle. All in all I think it'd have to be classed as very good value for money.

Same grinder as GAB and SP, works completely fine but same issue with the dust but at that price, it's more than fine.

I'm in the market now for a coffee machine so suggestions welcome.

I just want an espresso machine, so no milk foam or other bells and whistles required. Some of the Sage machines get good reviews.

RE: German death rates. Unless I am misunderstood their low rate is got to do with how they are categorising deaths i.e. if you have an ingrown toe nail and coronoavirus and you die then your death is reported as being attributed to the ingrown toenail?

No they're not augmenting data, they're just better than everyone else. That's conspiracy theory stuff, they were on the ball with the cocooning stuff way before anyone else. Miles ahead of Spain, Italy & France on testing, Andrew Neil and alike pushing that shite. There may elements of variance but their younger population are the most impacted thus far.

Patients over the age of 80 make up around 3 percent of the infected, though they account for 7 percent of the population. The median age for those infected is estimated to be 46; in Italy, it’s 63.

Now, I had come around to the China numbers being accurate till I read an article today suggesting that local governments have "zero case quotas" and numbers are being suppressed.
Overall they're beating it back, the measures are working but not to the level being reported.

China will bite the bullet and get back to work either way, their economy is forecasting a 10%+ drop this year. Their GDP is almost 50% Agriculture & Industry, the US is only 20% so they need to get back asap.

[LuckyLloyd]

Reports from Russia that vast majority of admissions are now between 18 and 40 year olds. Is there any reason that would be?

Possibility it mutated into a more virulent strain? Have to say one bit of the whole thing that doesn’t make any sense to me following along is the mutations and different versions of the virus. I’ve read articles and looked at charts and stuff but I can’t make head nor tail of it as a topic.

Brandon Adam's did a podcast with Doug Polk, always thought he was a weird dude who prob killed hookers in his spare time but was quite intersting. He said there, and I'd 100% be in the camp that we should face up to the reality that there is a significant mathematical chance society, law and order and everything we know could break. I personally think it's extremely likely but figuring out out what to do about that possibility is something else entirely.

Link?

Personally think the change of societal breakdown revolves ultimately around resource scarcity. In the US, where a massive swathe of society have no financial reserves and there is deep ideological opposition for the state to provide necessities for a period of time, I think there is a much greater chance of significant unrest than there is within the EU. We are much more willing to have the state step in and provide the basics for a period.

That said, there is an undercurrent of opinion everywhere (but particularly in more right wing societies like the US and U.K.) that we put everyone back to work and let the virus run wild and free. Natural selection ‘the market is always right’ bollocks. Perusing the Telegraph opinion pieces is quite scary - they are barely holding the line of the U.K.s latest approach. If that type of thinking prevaricated you could have social unrest as people who feel young and strong decide that their ability to make a living and entertain themselves trumps any sense of collective responsibility. That would be inspite of the government looking after the basic needs and welfare of people.

And that second strand could be exacerbated if people start seeing savings and money devalue with rapid hyperinflation, a possibility if we get up to six months of this level of economic stagnation with central banks printing printing printing.

Best case scenario is some of the phenoms working identifying treatments for this find something that is very effective in the next 6 weeks, ideally from a cocktail or combination of already available drugs. I’m not particularly hopeful on this, the WHO seems to have low enough expectations of the trials they kicked off in the last 10 days, but that’s the one outer here imo.

[LuckyLloyd]

@Murdrum: so the idea Germany and U.K. are playing with data is a conspiracy; but you’re convinced China are?

[Closed_Account]

Looking at the societal response to date, you are wrong and all the indicators are of increased cohesiveness.

It's the same phenomenon as wartime, people pull together in extreme circumstances.

I dont think this has shown its teeth yet at all. Can you get it more than once?
The INITIAL response is pull together, the longer something lasts the more human nature and its will for survival kicks in, not even factoring in greed.

I sincerely hope I am totally and utterly wrong, but it is hard to imagine this being gone in 6 months, like who the fuck knows how long IF things return to 'normal'

I'd also be totally and utterly dismissive of reports from China suggesting they have it under control or society is returning to normal. I lived there, people are packed together like sardines, seems to me close to impossible it wouldnt spread like wild fire.

[ArmaniJeans]

No traffic on the roads, no real need to get stressed/take risks as you'll be at your destination in about a quarter of the time it took a month ago.
But some fuckwit still manages to crash into a Luas.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/luas-derailed-following-collision-with-truck-in-dublin-1.4215664

[Guest]

@Murdrum: so the idea Germany and U.K. are playing with data is a conspiracy; but you’re convinced China are?

Well no.

I am convinced China may be augmenting numbers when I read the following:

China’s National Health Commission does not include people who test positive for the virus but have no symptoms, and local authorities are reportedly suppressing information on new infections to meet the target of zero local cases.

Similarly I believe the NYT when they write articles on the German effort like the one I referenced above.

I am yet to read a reliable resource(to me anyway) which has suggested Germany are augmenting figures. Happy to be corrected on that.

As far as the UK are concerned, I haven't seen their figures, looks like a shit show though.

[Closed_Account]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-29-a69117

https://t.co/dxXzQ9KsWC?ssr=true

Yeah. I think anyone who doesnt keep a really sceptical and basically disbelieving mindset re the numbers from ANY government are at this stage still sleep walking.

[Western_Sean]

....Now, I had come around to the China numbers being accurate till I read an article today suggesting that local governments have "zero case quotas" and numbers are being suppressed.
Overall they're beating it back, the measures are working but not to the level being reported.....

In a conversation I had last week, a friend from China suggested locals in Wuhan believe in excess of 40k died there based on the queues to collect ashes from the crematoriums.

Intuitively this seems much more likely to be true than the official numbers based on developments globally since. This is based on eyeballing and then extrapolating on the queues so it could be miles out - however, queues at these places would suggest the official numbers are questionable at best.

[LuckyLloyd]

No traffic on the roads, no real need to get stressed/take risks as you'll be at your destination in about a quarter of the time it took a month ago.
But some fuckwit still manages to crash into a Luas.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/luas...blin-1.4215664

From the photos it looks to me that he was driving the wrong way too, based on him hitting the LUAS on its left side as it went away from town.

[ComradeCollie]

No traffic on the roads, no real need to get stressed/take risks as you'll be at your destination in about a quarter of the time it took a month ago.
But some fuckwit still manages to crash into a Luas.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/luas...blin-1.4215664

I remember years ago complaining about a person who was blocking a lane on the quays in Dublin. Found out later that he had died of a heart attack in the car, and that was why he wasn't moving.

[Guest]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/...arch-29-a69117

https://t.co/dxXzQ9KsWC?ssr=true

Yeah. I think anyone who doesnt keep a really sceptical and basically disbelieving mindset re the numbers from ANY government are at this stage still sleep walking.

You can keep a skeptical mindset while also looking to some sources as a fair reflection of the state of affairs.

Curating your sources and filtering out the noise is the logical thing to do, easier then to critique what is presented in front of you.

Some people are at least attempting to deliver accuracy, you just have to focus on them.

The problems arise when your sources are skeptical to begin with.

[LuckyLloyd]

In a conversation I had last week, a friend from China suggested locals in Wuhan believe in excess of 40k died there based on the queues to collect ashes from the crematoriums.

Intuitively this seems much more likely to be true than the official numbers based on developments globally since. This is based on eyeballing and then extrapolating on the queues so it could be miles out - however, queues at these places would suggest the official numbers are questionable at best.

https://twitter.com/helenbranswell/status/1242819098121244678?s=21

People believing tens of thousands died is intuitive based on global developments since? You’ll have to walk me through that one. Even in Italy, the death rate isn’t above 10%. So China would have to be under reporting everything by orders of magnitude.

And yes, they’re packed like sardines, but the videos emerging from western journalists about the nature of the lockdown speak to its comprehensive nature.

[pgodkin]

You can keep a skeptical mindset while also looking to some sources as a fair reflection of the state of affairs.

Curating your sources and filtering out the noise is the logical thing to do, easier then to critique what is presented in front of you.

Some people are at least attempting to deliver accuracy, you just have to focus on them.

The problems arise when your sources are skeptical to begin with.

This.

The internet needs to be taken away from the public somehow. It takes zero effort to produce content online that looks and feels scientific but the bases behind it is garbage... whats that say a lie gets half way around the world before the truth can get it's pants on

[Guest]

https://twitter.com/helenbranswell/s...121244678?s=21

People believing tens of thousands died is intuitive based on global developments since? You’ll have to walk me through that one. Even in Italy, the death rate isn’t above 10%. So China would have to be under reporting everything by orders of magnitude.

And yes, they’re packed like sardines, but the videos emerging from western journalists about the nature of the lockdown speak to its comprehensive nature.

I don't think anyone believes the death rate in China, Italy or anywhere else is close 10%.

Even so, that obviously doesn't mean China aren't under reporting figures irrespective of their successes.
There is no mutual exclusivity here.

China can be doing a good job, have a death rate better than everyone else and still be under reporting figures.
That's a very feasible scenario given they reacted so quickly and have a young population.

[Solksjaer!]

Seriously fucking worried about this ingrown toenail now.

[Closed_Account]

I agree totally in what you say Murdrum re sources. The Brandon Adam's things is speculative obv and tenuiusly aligns with my horrible suspicion that this is going to precipitate an economic depression and there IS a mathematically significant chance society as we know it buckles. Not presenting it as anything other than a personal opinion held.People seem to have a tough time, on a level I think is deeply subconscious in entertaining this possibility at all which is interesting in itself

[Tar.Aldarion]

What's the craic with all these thousands of urns in china?

https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/

Hard to trust anything that comes from there tbf, if somebody told me they cremated everybody alive that had the virus to stop the spread, I'd have no reason to believe it was false.

UK on the other hand are like, well if we don't test it the numbers can't go up!
Is there evidence on the Germany rumour about assigning deaths to other things? What is the source?

[The Istanbul]

As per the HSE manager that I live with when I put this question to her:

"people don't want to change"

and the unions fight change to the death accordingly. That is the primary reason.

I disagree. Fundamentally I think people want to do what is right. However what the PS (and some other) unions have done is made their members think that they should be entitled to more pay/compo for doing what is right ie more efficient work practices.

[LuckyLloyd]

There’s a non zero chance of it Sam, I don’t think that can be debated.

Bear in mind though that society still functioned in the west during the Great Depression, to a large extent. And that was within a context of smaller states, economic protectionism, poorer infrastructure, less services and connectivity, etc.

There’s an interesting conversation to be had defining “breakdown”, in terms of what that looks like.

[The Istanbul]

Discovered a homeless guy sleeping in the old stables at the back of my property this morning.

He doesn't show any signs of drug use etc, just a standard down on his luck for. Says he's an alcoholic.

Was apparently sleeping in a tent locally and the Gardai moved him on but arranged for a hostel bed.
He left after one night, said it was eight people on bunks in one room and figured that with all the coughing he'd catch something plus woke up to one lad searching under his pillow for valuables.

My instincts say he's sound but I'm effectively losing access to the garden which feels petty when I say it out loud.

What's my play?

Ask KevIrl for advice

[Western_Sean]

https://twitter.com/helenbranswell/s...121244678?s=21

People believing tens of thousands died is intuitive based on global developments since? You’ll have to walk me through that one. Even in Italy, the death rate isn’t above 10%. So China would have to be under reporting everything by orders of magnitude.

And yes, they’re packed like sardines, but the videos emerging from western journalists about the nature of the lockdown speak to its comprehensive nature.

1. Wuhan is a city of 11million people odd.
2. This Chinese Government data suggests the first case was found there in November.
3. The city was locked down over 2 months later on January 23rd.

That's 2 months of unchecked transmission in a densely populated area. If we assume every single death in China is in Wuhan we get an ultimate mortality rate of around 3.5k /11 million so more or less 0.035% mortality in Wuhan city only - with 2 months of no containment measures.

I think there's some merit to the notion that the numbers are rubbish.

[The C Kid]

I'd feel pretty much every country with a significant outbreak are somewhat underreporting their death figures. Attribution-based death figures in a pandemic will surely be incomplete and unreliable. The scale of this underreporting will vary across countries.

You can debate whether this is due for political reasons, economic concerns, global reputation management, managing public panic responses or just the fact that so many epicentres are completely overwhelmed by the situation that accurate reporting isn't high up the list of healthcare priorities when you're desperately spending each minute trying to save lives.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Solksjaer!]

Ask KevIrl for advice

GO MOVE SHIFT?

[Western_Sean]

That was originally sourced from this article, which was the first to mention it.
....
Everything about that article screams falseness.

Can't comment on the original source but you are right that article does seem questionable.

Think about the high-level numbering for unchecked transmission in a city of 11 million for 2 months through - would a guesstimate of deaths look like 3k odd to you? New York seems like an obvious proxy for estimation purposes.

[LuckyLloyd]

Is there evidence on the Germany rumour about assigning deaths to other things? What is the source?

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/03/why-are-germany-and-austria-s-coronavirus-death-rates-so-low

The second possibility is that the numbers elsewhere are more accurate than those in Germany and Austria. It has been widely noted that the way deaths are counted varies from place to place. Coronavirus seems to become lethal, particularly to older sufferers, when it combines with other, pre-existing health problems (respiratory conditions for example). Some authorities appear more prone than those in Germany and Austria to ascribe such comorbidity deaths specifically to the virus; the health ministry in Vienna for example stresses that Austrians dying from other causes are only tested if there is an infection risk. Combined with the lower average age of those tested in Germany and Austria, that may suggest that a higher proportion of elderly people are dying from the virus, or will die as it spreads, in those countries than the current numbers imply. Medical experts in both Germany and Austria have stated that they do not expect their countries’ fatality rates to end up much lower than those of other countries.

Now, tbf, I am only hearing about it in this way: inferred in articles rather than based on hard data.

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Denny Crane]

You don't see the Chinese leadership as being in conflict with the west Hitch?

The Chinese conspiracy theories started with China blaming this all on the US military.

[tylerdurden94]

Been doing some gardening over the last week and we were looking at getting a fence put up in the back garden but I think we've now moved to putting up a wall, anybody got an idea of cost?

One side of the garden already has a wall up that the neighbour done years ago, so it's about 39 feet long/23 feet wide and looking to go about 6 foot tall.

[6starpool]

Hitchbot is doing overtime defending China. The original Hitch died in a gutter somewhere after a binge and his phone was found by an agent of the Chinese communist party who uses his profile to glorify the nation among foreigners

RIP hitch

[Raoul Duke III]

There's kind of two sides to this Wuhan conspiracist story:

1. Are the Chinese government capable of doing this? Yes, absolutely - they are a murderous dictatorship
2. Is there any evidence of same? No

So I would lean to the evidence of which there is none.

[Dice75]

Someone needs to draw a correlation chart between the spread of Chinese conspiracy theories and the rise of US corona-fuckedupness.

It might seem I care too much about the China angle, but I just hate these types of stories that are spread to make everyone distrust everything.

It was only two years ago there was Irish tweeters talking about how Russian bots are trying to influence Irish politics and we had the whole Russia mania. Now those people are all China conspiracists. A decade ago everyone was an expert on how every Arab was a terrorist. In the late 1980s they were Japanese conspiracists. In the 1930s they were anti-semetic conspiracists. It's all related. Whenever we let loose with these unfounded stories we build a stereotype that is harmful.

All the Chinese stuff starts with one man four years ago trying to create a new foreign enemy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs

There seems to be a swing in the Anti-China, Pro US Military Hero undercurrent in a lot of the run of the mill American TV shows in the last few years. I know its an obvious easy target but sometimes you would question who is behind it's motives (and I'm as un-tinfoil hat as they come)

Edit - actually replace undercurrent mostly with in your face.

[Guest]

What sources do you trust then Hitch?

There must be some sources that if they presented you with firm evidence that you could buy the idea that China is augmenting data?

FWIW, the sources I've been quoting from also suggest that the Trump administration are a hindrance in tackling the disease.

[balfejohn]

Been doing some gardening over the last week and we were looking at getting a fence put up in the back garden but I think we've now moved to putting up a wall, anybody got an idea of cost?

One side of the garden already has a wall up that the neighbour done years ago, so it's about 39 feet long/23 feet wide and looking to go about 6 foot tall.

If you ring Donald trump he will get you a good price
He’s throwing up wall all over the place

[Lao Lao]

Been doing some gardening over the last week and we were looking at getting a fence put up in the back garden but I think we've now moved to putting up a wall, anybody got an idea of cost?

One side of the garden already has a wall up that the neighbour done years ago, so it's about 39 feet long/23 feet wide and looking to go about 6 foot tall.

GAB & Zuutroy could probably knock up the wooden fence in exchange for red wine & steak but it may not be cheaper than the cost of a wall

[LuckyLloyd]

There's kind of two sides to this Wuhan conspiracist story:

1. Are the Chinese government capable of doing this? Yes, absolutely - they are a murderous dictatorship
2. Is there any evidence of same? No

So I would lean to the evidence of which there is none.

There’s a third side too: some of us want to believe that their numbers are wrong because the type of response they initiated is something we’d rather avoid and also we want to believe that the west has some sort of medical / societal advantage.

[Mellor]

People believing tens of thousands died is intuitive based on global developments since? You’ll have to walk me through that one. Even in Italy, the death rate isn’t above 10%. So China would have to be under reporting everything by orders of magnitude.

Italy has had just under 100k cases, and just under 11k deaths. For arguments sake it's basically 11%.
Obviously the, close case death rare of 45% is exaggerated. But we can't totally ignore the 70k+ people still infected. I'd expect 2-4k to died out of them, So the final number might get close to 15%.



San Marino in a grim spot. Surrounded on all sides by Italy. Population of c.30k. Over 200 cases now, the point where the numbers start to climb.

[LuckyLloyd]

Italy has had just under 100k cases, and just under 11k deaths. For arguments sake it's basically 11%.
Obviously the, close case death rare of 45% is exaggerated. But we can't totally ignore the 70k+ people still infected. I'd expect 2-4k to died out of them, So the final number might get close to 15%.



San Marino in a grim spot. Surrounded on all sides by Italy. Population of c.30k. Over 200 cases now, the point where the numbers start to climb.

Thanks - I hadn’t looked at their CFR in a few days. Didn’t realise they were above the 11% mark. Terrifying.

[eamonhonda]

Italy has had just under 100k cases, and just under 11k deaths. For arguments sake it's basically 11%.
Obviously the, close case death rare of 45% is exaggerated. But we can't totally ignore the 70k+ people still infected. I'd expect 2-4k to died out of them, So the final number might get close to 15%.

San Marino in a grim spot. Surrounded on all sides by Italy. Population of c.30k. Over 200 cases now, the point where the numbers start to climb.

What about all the self quarantine unreported cases that don't die. They would affect the death rate a lot and make it lower. The 11 percent is reported and tested cases that died

[horatio1]

Never question the numbers.

Posted at 14:0314:03
UK testing numbers clarified
Earlier we reported on the confusion about the number of tests being carried out each day to see if people have coronavirus in the UK.

It came after Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove suggested on Sunday that there had been 10,000 tests the previous day. Health Secretary Matt Hancock also tweeted that the 10,000 test figure had been reached.

The prime minister's official spokesperson has clarified that Mr Gove was talking about the testing capacity, not the number of tests actually carried out.

They say he was relying on information given to him from Public Health England, which has since been clarified.

Public Health England tweeted that the latest figure of the number of tests conducted, as of 09:00 GMT on Saturday, was 9,114 and testing capacity stood at 10,949 a day.

These figures refer to those being tested in a clinical setting – and does not include key workers, the prime minister's spokesperson says, adding that 900 front-line staff were tested over the weekend.

[Guest]

There’s a third side too: some of us want to believe that their numbers are wrong because the type of response they initiated is something we’d rather avoid and also we want to believe that the west has some sort of medical / societal advantage.

Who do you think those people are?

[Guest]

Dunno about civilisation but the E.U is definitely done for after this
Germans/Dutch etc are not going to put their hands in their pockets to help Italy etc

[The Situation]

We are at a peak human time for our ability to analyse big data but never have statistics been so widely used with more reckless abandon or lack of wider contextual understanding.
At the point where I'm pinch of salting 99% of what I read.

[Keane]

I'll take the overs in the 'time until society/EU collapses' market. Yawn. Thread in bits.

[Mellor]

Thanks - I hadn’t looked at their CFR in a few days. Didn’t realise they were above the 11% mark. Terrifying.

Yeah, took a jump recenty. I had stoppedfor a few days myself. But had a look at Worldometers after the weekend, and see there was over 2.5k deaths Friday to Sunday.

What about all the self quarantine unreported cases that don't die. They would affect the death rate a lot and make it lower. The 11 percent is reported and tested cases that died

Sure. And what about people who are lying dead, alone at home right now. Or the people currently infected, who haven't died yet, but will.

I'm under no illusion that 11% is a perfect assessment. But its the current best relative measure we have. Regardless, no matter what the actually % is, 11k Italians are dead.

[Strewelpeter]

I watched Clive James postcard from Shanghai yesterday. It was filmed right about the time things were starting to change in late '89 . Absolutely fascinating slice of time and place.
For contrast the Cairo one was on a few weeks ago, all the sights and sounds and more or less the same stuff socially and politically was going on thirty years later.

[Dice75]

In these austere times where we are beset with great economic uncertainty and the need to tighten our belts I've started thinking about Hot Tubs. Has anybody any experience with them? I see Aldi have the cheapo inflatables available this week again but surely they are hugely inefficient in terms of heating time, heat retention and therefore cost to heat so I figure there is a huge false economy attached to them. Anyway any insights out there amongst the BBV massive.

Dealt with this crowd before, only a hop and skip down the road for ya.

https://www.completeleisure.ie/

[balfejohn]

Been doing some gardening over the last week and we were looking at getting a fence put up in the back garden but I think we've now moved to putting up a wall, anybody got an idea of cost?

One side of the garden already has a wall up that the neighbour done years ago, so it's about 39 feet long/23 feet wide and looking to go about 6 foot tall.

Sent you a number by message of a friend who’s a bricklayer he might be able to give you a price

[Solksjaer!]

Deaths against confirmed cases is a fraction of deaths versus all cases . I'd imagine we need to keep the scare tactics high to protect our health service.

I'm literally going mad here . The sense of humour of a 6 year old is not compatible with that of a 3 year old .
Society will break down after lunch some time.

[Guest]

In these austere times where we are beset with great economic uncertainty and the need to tighten our belts I've started thinking about Hot Tubs. Has anybody any experience with them? I see Aldi have the cheapo inflatables available this week again but surely they are hugely inefficient in terms of heating time, heat retention and therefore cost to heat so I figure there is a huge false economy attached to them. Anyway any insights out there amongst the BBV massive.

Heating time is going to be largely the same regardless of brand because you're limited to the 2400 W or so with your domestic supply. It takes 10 hours to heat 1000 L of water from 15 to 35 degrees at 2400 W. I'd also imagine the inflatable ones are pretty good for holding on to heat as they're surround by air, which is a pretty good insulator. Maybe you might lose some heat out of the base, if they're thin I guess.

[Guest]

Sure. And what about people who are lying dead, alone at home right now. Or the people currently infected, who haven't died yet, but will.

They won't be proportionally greater than the mild and asymptomatic cases of Covid that will go undetected.

Given the Italian resources to date, the 11% figure is wildly inaccurate and not remotely reflective of the reality.
The Italians may end up having one of the highest death rates in the world but it won't come close to the 11% mark.

[Raoul Duke III]

In these austere times where we are beset with great economic uncertainty and the need to tighten our belts I've started thinking about Hot Tubs. Has anybody any experience with them? I see Aldi have the cheapo inflatables available this week again but surely they are hugely inefficient in terms of heating time, heat retention and therefore cost to heat so I figure there is a huge false economy attached to them. Anyway any insights out there amongst the BBV massive.

GAB is slowly turning into Hugh Hefner.

Can see him down in Kildare town chatting up ladies after the races.

"Would you like to come back to my place for a glass of red wine? I have a very extensive cellar."

"No, not really. My mother always warned me about strange men. And you're strange."

"Did I forget to mention I have......a hot tub with views of the rolling countryside?" <raises eyebrow suggestively>

"I'll be there. I don't have a swimsuit though, is nudity acceptable? And can I invite my twin sister? She's a trained masseuse."

<internal fist pump and whisper of 'thank you BBV' >