KK IPO Spot

[Downtown]

Been thinking bout this hand a bit and can't come to a decision and thought process Im happy with.

Its in the IPO. Blinds 1-2k

Im in mid position with 600k and possibly chip leader.
Villain is in cut off with 400k. He has just moved to the table. I chat to him a bit and it seems clear he is a bit nervous. the IPO is his biggest buy in event and doesnt play much outside his college game. He has about 400k

I open to 4k with KK
He calls

Flop 467 rainbow.

I bet 5.5k and he ships for 400k?!

We are also close to the bubble and he is in the IPO promo in which he wins 1k for outlasting 3 more players.

[Bubbleking]

Mathimatically (as in ICM) a fold is the correct play

Considering how bad his shove is I think 88-QQ could make up a huge part of his range that was just "waiting for a safe flop"

unfortuantely his badness has him nearly perfectly balanced - as in he could have 2 pair a set or a monster draw and doesnt want to see any more cards

The one thing you can be sure of is that he "has something". Im pretty sure he is not thinking of your cards so he definitely could be value shoving worse

Bottom line is (and this doesnt apply in the vast majority of cases to tourney spots here) but your edge is so massive in this field I think you can safely fold what we presume is the best hand a vast majority of the time

[DeadParrot]

just wow.
Overship for protection? He might have an over pair to the board or flopped a set, terrified of a straight draw?
I honestly have no idea.
It's a snap call/snap fold.
I'm leaning on a call.

[FeetMagic]

Wow that's very strange. Without giving it too much thought my instinct would be a pretty quick fold.

[NuckChorris]

It's a fold for me with the info you've gotten from him.

[Flushdraw]

I fold here. If this is his biggest buyin and he's probably top 10 in chips, then it sounds like a classic case of him missing a ton of value because he doesn't want to tangle with the bigger stack and just wants to win the pot there. If you had an idea whether he luckboxed his way to 400k or whatever, but if you've no solid read then fold

I reckon the worst he has is 76 but probably has a set

[Wombatman]

Would have a chat with him. Unless he had an obvious nervous breakdown or his ears start flapping wildly its a quick fold for me.

[flushjee]

I bet 5.5k and he ships for 400k?!

Fold for me

[Mellor]

If he's nervous like you say, his play could be a spaz out with good hand where he is afraid of being out drawn.
I really hate getting 200bbs in here.
I can't see this being an outright bluff. Could he really over value 88-QQ, it so I really you'll get more value just playing the guy on your terms. Fold and move on.

[gorrrr72]

Pairs 88-QQ does make up a decent part of his range but so does 2 pair and sets (afraid of the straight draw).

I think it's really sick if you call and he turns over a set (obv thinking he played it great)

Fold and pound that sucker without the risk.

[gorrrr72]

Fold for me

This is hypnotizing, wish I could thank it twice.

[tglynn]

It might be just me but i don't think over pairs are a massive part of his range. Maybe 88 but this line is super weird with 1010-QQ. I think if he had a big pair he'd flat and wait for a safe turn or make a much smaller raise to see where he's at. If he is a new enough player and is nervous, a shove from him would indicate alot of strength. I realize over pairs are strong but in his mind maybe not strong enough to stack off with. So i'm thinking more along the lines of A5s, a set or some sort of 2 pair/1 pair and draw combo! Either way i still think i fold here. As was mentioned above, there's gonna be better spots.

[Winning!]

Been thinking bout this hand a bit and can't come to a decision and thought process Im happy with.

We fold and we're still what, 295BB's deep? I think we can find better spots to chip up with much lower variance in a field this soft..

This is a thought process I'm fairly happy with vs a likely scared-tight player who just shoved 200BBs like it aint no thang.

[Jam-Fly]

wow, having 200 and 300 BB stacks at this stage in the IPO is impressive. The one thing people having mentioned yet is if Rory calls and loses, he still has 100BB near the bubble on what (I assume) is a soft table.

When I first read it, my initial thought process was "IPO - big stack - somewhat marginal spot - fold and move on" but the more I think about, it seems you're only losing to 44, 66 and 77. Assuming he is nervous etc. he surely 3bets AA pre-flop and he's hardly calling behind with 35, 58 or 67 (like, if he was, surely he's not bad enough to hit the gin flop and just shove. I know it's the IPO and people can be that bad, but if he's in the tight-nervous camp, I'd assume he folds these pre, and if he's in the mixing it up with the big stacks camp, he doesn't shove on the flop).

So saying all that, I think it's probably a +EV call in a vacuum (tourney position etc aside). So now we have to decide how valuable winning 200BBs are vs losing 200BBs. Tbh, I think this depends on how strong your read on the table is. If you call and lose this pot, you're left with 100BBs, but with a player who has position (I assume he is to your left) on you who has a stack of like 400BB! If you think you can still run over the table and chip up comfortably even if you lose the pot, I think you should go ahead and call. If you think the table dynamic would shift considerably, I'd fold and just keep chipping away whilst having everyone covered.


It all depends how strong your read is, but if you do think 88-QQ makes up a lot of his range, I'll gamble and call. You're going to have to win every chip in the tournament eventually! Basically, if you think it's a +cEV call, I call. With regard to tourney position, ICM etc. I do think you can a +cEV gamble since you're still in good shape even if you lose.


(Obviously all of this changes if the stacks are say, 100BBs and 130BBs, the ONLY reason I'm considering playing such a high variance pot is because even if I lose, I'm still deep stacked.)

[tglynn]

So tough to look at this hand in a vacuum though. Having a stack at this stage of a tourney where the blinds get crazy quick is massive. In terms of the difference between a 300bb and 100bb stacks are huge (award for stating the obvious?), you can happily take flips with 20bb stacks and still push the small stacks around and rake in the dead money.

I think if he calls, he's at best flipping (roughly) as I still don't see 88-QQ as a big part of his range. I think it's a clear fold and just keep chipping away at the blinds!

[Daragh999]

Would have a chat with him. Unless he had an obvious nervous breakdown or his ears start flapping wildly its a quick fold for me.

Pretty much this apart from i would interogate him for 5 mins rather than have a 'chat' if he is nervous he will let something slip 95% of the time, question everything out loud, replay the hand, insult his play openly to his face <<<(this one always works), do whatever you have to to get a reaction.

On paper live it seems like a fold, you need to be winning ~45 - 50% of the time just to make it a breakeven call given you have no pot odds and 2 outs twice if your wrong. I can see a set showing up here as well as QQ/JJ, lower than that i think hes more likely to just call. Kinda similar to Nicky's AK hand, in this soft a field I usually hate taking unnecessary gambles.

[minor]

Fold.

Given your skill level and the amount of chips you have I cant see why you should put nearly all your chips at risk in such a way ahead/way behind situation.

The guy is never bluffing here in my opinion.

[Jam-Fly]

So tough to look at this hand in a vacuum though. Having a stack at this stage of a tourney where the blinds get crazy quick is massive. In terms of the difference between a 300bb and 100bb stacks are huge (award for stating the obvious?), you can happily take flips with 20bb stacks and still push the small stacks around and rake in the dead money.

I think if he calls, he's at best flipping (roughly) as I still don't see 88-QQ as a big part of his range. I think it's a clear fold and just keep chipping away at the blinds!

Pretty much this apart from i would interogate him for 5 mins rather than have a 'chat' if he is nervous he will let something slip 95% of the time, question everything out loud, replay the hand, insult his play openly to his face <<<(this one always works), do whatever you have to to get a reaction.

On paper live it seems like a fold, you need to be winning ~45 - 50% of the time just to make it a breakeven call given you have no pot odds and 2 outs twice if your wrong. I can see a set showing up here as well as QQ/JJ, lower than that i think hes more likely to just call. Kinda similar to Nicky's AK hand, in this soft a field I usually hate taking unnecessary gambles.

I think you would want your equity against his range to be at least like 60% to call here. If you don't think 88-QQ make up a lot of his range, it's def a fold. But if you do think that you are in very good shape against his range, I'll gamble and call. It's all read dependant, but I do think that if you have 60% against his range, it's a call (ie my main point is, I don't think you should make a "ah I'm probably ahead but I'll wait for a better spot so I fold" play. If you think it's +cEV, call. If you don't, fold.)

[8611]

Villain is one of either two things - too inexperienced to think you can have a set or too inexperienced to get value from his set. To me he most likely has QQ and has gone for the 'I'll push any non AK flop' line we all might have been inclined to take in our first outings to formal games. Occasionally he does have a set but tbh I think he's so afraid of busting that he prob won't call pre with 44 66 or 77. How quick did he ship it in, did it look like he was following a pre-determined plan?

Either way he's not bluffing. He thinks he has the best hand and wants to end it now to avoid any risk of bubbling. If you can disabuse him of this notion and if he is as nervous as you say I reckon you could prob get some type of read out of him?

Still folding a lot but sometimes will call.

[Jam-Fly]

Villain is one of either two things - too inexperienced to think you can have a set or too inexperienced to get value from his set. To me he most likely has QQ and has gone for the 'I'll push any non AK flop' line we all might have been inclined to take in our first outings to formal games. Occasionally he does have a set but tbh I think he's so afraid of busting that he prob won't call pre with 44 66 or 77. How quick did he ship it in, did it look like he was following a pre-determined plan?

Either way he's not bluffing. He thinks he has the best hand and wants to end it now to avoid any risk of bubbling. If you can disabuse him of this notion and if he is as nervous as you say I reckon you could prob get some type of read out of him?

Still folding a lot but sometimes will call.

ya this is what I'm struggling with too. Is the player bad enough to call pf with a hand like that, and then do everything in their power not to get value from it. If he's scared of clashing with the big stack (which he seems to be) does he even call pf with these hands? Tbh, I do think there are players that don't have plans for hands. So his thought process could easily be "I have a pair, I call" - flop set - "shit he has a lot of chips, better not give him the price to draw!" - shove all in -
It's a case where you're trying to think of the logic used for an unlogical thinker.

[smoothcall]

Easy fold

[Hectorjelly]

Fold.

Given your skill level and the amount of chips you have I cant see why you should put nearly all your chips at risk in such a way ahead/way behind situation.

The guy is never bluffing here in my opinion.

Way ahead/way behinds situations are completely different than this, and even if they were your advise doesn't make sense. Lets say he shipped over your bet with any pocket pair, you should definitely call here because even though when your behind you're drawing to two outs, there are far more pairs that didn't flop a set.

Mathimatically (as in ICM) a fold is the correct play

Considering how bad his shove is I think 88-QQ could make up a huge part of his range that was just "waiting for a safe flop"

unfortuantely his badness has him nearly perfectly balanced - as in he could have 2 pair a set or a monster draw and doesnt want to see any more cards

I don't get this post at all. First off you start off with an assertion, then you appear to argue with yourself on almost every point you make.

If 88 - QQ are a huge part of his range then you can't really fold, as your edge is so big against them folding would be terrible. Underpairs (with no straight draw) have 10% equity against your hand.

Then for the last point, if the shove was really bad then it wouldn't be perfectly balanced. Also, there is almost no chance whatsover this shove was is part of a balanced range (And if it was the decision would be easy anyway). This guys range is definitely really unbalanced, the problem is we have no idea of whether weighted towards weak hands or strong ones. The type of players who ship over 3bbs bets with their 200bb stacks have not worked out a balanced strategy for doing so.

Lastly there aren't really any monster draws available, bar a pair and an OESD

Crazy hand, I can't ever remember anyone shipping over my normal cbet for 200bbs before. I'd just fold and move on. Without knowing what type of range he has it's a very difficult decision, but I'd just revert to what seems like standard play with the amount of blinds in play would be (ie folding rather than putting in 200bbs with a lone pair), ignoring how we got there. With no information I think I would prefer to trust this than try and second guess what his actions really mean. It's not a very elegant solution.

I would completely understand someone calling here figuring that no-one would play a set or straight this way (you will lose to aces sometimes though). If I had to guess a hand I'd say jacks or tens.

It's very difficult to get a read off people in this situation, because a guy who plays his hand this way with queens will just assume you have a worse hand and actually start rooting for you to call.

[Wombatman]

It's very difficult to get a read off people in this situation, because a guy who plays his hand this way with queens will just assume you have a worse hand and actually start rooting for you to call.

Not so sure about this. You don’t have to be an ex-FBI agent or anything to get tells off inexperienced live players.

Assuming he had TT-QQ I’d get him talking first. Then I’d drop the bomb that I can beat queens asking him what he thinks of that. His reaction might yield the info you need.

I assume you can talk about hands heads up in this tourney.

[shano_88]

Are you sure you have the blind levels right? Im nearly sure the blinds were bigger on the bubble.