Reliable Sample Size

[kady]

not doing great at the mtts at the moment but mainly play big fields so hoping its down to variance


taking average field of around 2000 , how many tournaments would be a fair sample size to determine whether you are good enough to win at a particular level?
given the size of the field i reckon this number would be high but exactly how high do yee reckon ?

[AndyFatBastard]

You'd probably have a good approximation of your winrate after about 20000 tournaments.

[Mellor]

You'd probably have a good approximation of your winrate after about 20000 tournaments.

Maybe not even then, running good or bad in big fields/games could massively skew the results.

OP, look at it this way. Playing heads up only, you've got a field size of two. Yet over 100 games (whixh is large relaive to the possible results), a bad/good streak can skew the results.

An average field 2000 requires a massive sample. Don't worry about it and just bare in mind that your lifetime winrate for MTTs might be skewed

[kady]

yeah yee have confirmed what i was thinking

the big fields are headwrecking as even if u could get your chips in as a 60 -40 fav 6 times during the tournament theodds on you surviving all 6 are 20/1 if it was 8 times its 58/1 and then you have to actually go and try win the things.

[Winning!]

bout tree fiddy