15 get paid 17 left, whats my best move?

[AceOfShamrocks]

Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #10756862

BTN: 31,760 (31.8 bb)
SB: 24,010 (24 bb)
BB: 122,534 (122.5 bb)
UTG+2: 55,080 (55.1 bb)
MP1: 14,269 (14.3 bb)
MP2: 15,188 (15.2 bb)
Hero (): 14,246 (14.2 bb)
: 65,388 (65.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is with 8 8
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 2,000, MP2 folds


Hero??? 17 left, 15 get paid and I am well below average stack in 15th position. I have played many orbits with MP1 and his range is very wide here!

[Bubbleking]

I fold based on the fact that MP1 is min raising a 14bb stack into a BB that has 122bb!!! this is never ever ever ever ever a steal and anything that you are in good shape against is probably open shipping

[AceOfShamrocks]

MP1 min raises every time he raises pre flop, that is his preferred choice of preflop raising. I have played many orbits with him and his range here is very wide!

[ghostface]

MP1 min raises every time he raises pre flop, that is his preferred choice of preflop raising. I have played many orbits with him and his range here is very wide!

You obviously think a shove here is the right play then! Normally I wouldnt mind a shove but with the cutoff and the bb so deep here the raiser should really be tightening his range I think. Prob fold aswell. Think you also have to take into account the 2 other shorties at the table here too on the bubble

[Bubbleking]

MP1 min raises every time he raises pre flop, that is his preferred choice of preflop raising. I have played many orbits with him and his range here is very wide!

yeah but is he min raising into a massive tank every time from early position??

[AceOfShamrocks]

Yes he is, has done before and folded to a reraise when on approx 17k. Thats his style of play, try and make you think that min raising in early position against big stacks means he has a big hand. So knowing all this should I fold because I am 2 away from getting paid at least 1600$ or should I try and accumalate chips and try and get close to winning 19k which is first prize?

[Bubbleking]

Yes he is, has done before and folded to a reraise when on approx 17k. Thats his style of play, try and make you think that min raising in early position against big stacks means he has a big hand. So knowing all this should I fold because I am 2 away from getting paid at least 1600$ or should I try and accumalate chips and try and get close to winning 19k which is first prize?

what did you lose to when you shipped it?

[8611]

Ship it in the fuck, don't mind those fish

[8611]

what did you lose to when you shipped it?

He had AJ but he hit I was just wondering did I do the right thing

[ghostface]

Yes he is, has done before and folded to a reraise when on approx 17k. Thats his style of play, try and make you think that min raising in early position against big stacks means he has a big hand. So knowing all this should I fold because I am 2 away from getting paid at least 1600$ or should I try and accumalate chips and try and get close to winning 19k which is first prize?

Just for future reference you can include all this in the opening post and will get more informed responses. A 200 buy-in and the 1st pay out is 1600... If you want to gamble go ahead and shove, I still fold

[AceOfShamrocks]

Just for future reference you can include all this in the opening post and will get more informed responses. A 200 buy-in and the 1st pay out is 1600... If you want to gamble go ahead and shove, I still fold

Fair enough, I am new to posting hands here. It was a 200$ rebuy, 75k prize pool.

[Dice75]

He had AJ but he hit I was just wondering did I do the right thing

This thread is confusing me - is 8611 & OP the same person?

Anyway, shipping or folding is probably fine here either way. Depends on what u want.

If you're rolled enough to play $200 rebuys, surely a min cash isnt that important?

[Strewelpeter]

LOL

[TommyGunne]

I shove but having payouts/stacks at other table would be important. If he really is raising that often with a 14bb stack into a 125bb BB then its pretty clear. I would strongly question that read though.

If you're rolled enough to play $200 rebuys, surely a min cash isnt that important?

This question makes very little sense to me.

[AceOfShamrocks]

I honestly do not know who 8611 is. This is a hand from a tournament I won a ticket to yesterday (did not realise that it was a rebuy tourney ticket I was playing for but continued playing it anyway once I did). I did not top up or rebuy. My bankroll is not great at the moment.

[Dice75]

This question makes very little sense to me.

I'm probably more wondering outloud if he is buying into $200 rebuys or did he sat into it & sweating a min-cash for a nice spinup.

If he is in situation A - I lean towards a shove
If he is in situation B - I lean towards a fold

Just my opinion of course.

Edit - I see his post above.

[8611]

Are you or have you ever associated with 8611?

On your read of villain its a push. With your stack its a push. Your capacity to rob is limited by virtue of there being big stacks acting after you and small stacks, who should be shoving and not min raise folding, acting before you. He is min raise folding, even better.

I think this is then a pretty good spot. You don't have time to be hanging on for much better spots. Moreover, there's apparently no one hanging around on a crap stack about to bust but rather three of you on these stacks.

Fold is by no means bad but shove prob optimal.

Its also prob bad poker to play a game youre not rolled for as it will force you to be too cautious.

[Arazi]

For all of the reasons already mentioned my personal preference would be for a fold being just better than a shove, the size of the bubble being a major factor cannot be underestimated.
However that answer is taking this in a vacuum. What I would say is that the nittier my percieved image is the more inclined I'd be to shove.

[Mellor]

Yes he is, has done before and folded to a reraise when on approx 17k. Thats his style of play, try and make you think that min raising in early position against big stacks means he has a big hand.

Like Tommy, I'd also question that read.
Min-raising may well be his style. And he may have min-raised very light in lots of hands previously. But i don't know why you assume that he doesn't adjust his range when the bigstack is in the BB. I don't doubt the he continues to min-raise here, but to assume that he is still doing it light here is wrong imo.

Also, bet/fold with a 17k stack is different to bet/fold with a 14k stack (and 1k BBs), as he gets shorter he is going to be open we no intention of folding more and more.

A very roung mental range would put you against all hands that crush you, a decent amount ot flips, and very few, if any, hands that you beat. Plus you have 4 players behind which isn't ideal. Adding in the ICM bubble factor you prob need to get through more than you expect to make it profitable.
A fold for me.

[AKQJ10]

Puke fold. If he'd crammed i might call, the open looks so strong.

[TheDrunkenOne]

whats ur action been up to now?

If u have been folding to the bubble then i would shove here as that looks very strong and and the big stacks likely stay the fek out unless they hold a monster with this action and min raiser likely fold too unless he has QQ+

i am not averse to a bit of clock abuse to get a cash so can see the merits of a fold as well taking into consideration the % mark up for a cash

dont give a fek wat ppl think tbh if i decide to go down the wanna cash just.........for now route

[Mellor]

If u have been folding to the bubble then i would shove here as that looks very strong and and the big stacks likely stay the fek out unless they hold a monster with this action and min raiser likely fold too unless he has QQ+

Even if the OP has been folding a lot there is no what the raiser folds AK, JJ or anything close to that strong

[Lplated]

If I read you right - the min payout here is 1.6k - this is vastly different to the min-cash you'd usually get in a freezeout for the payouts immediately folllowing the bubble.

When you add that to the fact that you say your bankroll isn't great at the moment then for you getting to the cash is more important than building up a stack to take a run at the tournament.

Accordingly, i'd treat like a bubble in a sng [for as long as there is at least one stack less than yours] and fold all except aces, kings and maybe a,k and queens.

[Mellor]

If I read you right - the min payout here is 1.6k - this is vastly different to the min-cash you'd usually get in a freezeout for the payouts immediately folllowing the bubble.

It's a rebuy, but 8xBuy-in still looks a bit high for min cash imo

[Winning!]

Puke fold. If he'd crammed i might call, the open looks so strong.

I'd probably still fold if he crammed.. We don't have exception equity vs that range and ICM is a pretty huge factor here.

If you're rolled enough to play $200 rebuys, surely a min cash isnt that important?

Regardless of whether you're rolled for the games, the mincash represents +EV return which directly affects and for the most part overrides the +EV range you would regularly play in this spot. Thus meaning we fold a tonne.

[ViperEyeIRL]

Just for future reference you can include all this in the opening post and will get more informed responses. A 200 buy-in and the 1st pay out is 1600... If you want to gamble go ahead and shove, I still fold

Is it a 200$ buy in and the minimum cash is 1,600$ ? Is it a rebuy?

[AKQJ10]

I'd probably still fold if he crammed.. We don't have exception equity vs that range and ICM is a pretty huge factor here.

I suck alot at ICM, i also bubble alot.

[FeetMagic]

I think 8x buy in seems normal enough for first out in rebuy?

I'm folding here fwiw.

[AceOfShamrocks]

1575$ for 15th place, 19k+ for 1st place its a 200$ rebuy, I mentioned this a few times.

If I have a decent read and feel I am beating MP1 original min raiser is pushing still bad?

If I fold 88 here, what hand should I be waiting to play with 14bb and the next level not far away? Am I just folding everything waiting for 2 people to be knocked out so I am paid?

Thanks for feedback.

[Mellor]

If I have a decent read and feel I am beating MP1 original min raiser is pushing still bad?

If I fold 88 here, what hand should I be waiting to play with 14bb and the next level not far away? Am I just folding everything waiting for 2 people to be knocked out so I am paid?

But what is your decent read?
That he mins raises as standard the last couple of levels, and that he opens light.
Or that he does this with the big stack in the in the big blind and with 14BBS.

The two are very different and you haven't addressed the latter.

You shouldn't be looking for a hand that you 3bet raise/push with, you have far more equity getting the chips in first. Once the bubble bursts the relative difference between places is less of an issue, so you go back to chip accumulating, but for now, its the biggest jump you'll see for a while, survival is very valuable right now.

[AceOfShamrocks]

But what is your decent read?
That he mins raises as standard the last couple of levels, and that he opens light.
Or that he does this with the big stack in the in the big blind and with 14BBS.

The two are very different and you haven't addressed the latter.

You shouldn't be looking for a hand that you open raise/push with, you have far more equity getting the chips in first. Once the bubble bursts the relative difference between places is less of an issue, so you go back to chip accumulating, but for now, its the biggest jump you'll see for a while, survival is very valuable right now.

Sorry if I did not make this clear, he opens light, I think I am probably beating him, obviously with 88 I am not beating much but I feel I am beating him.

"You shouldn't be looking for a hand that you open raise/push with, you have far more equity getting the chips in first. Once the bubble bursts the relative difference between places is less of an issue, so you go back to chip accumulating, but for now, its the biggest jump you'll see for a while, survival is very valuable right now"

This is good advice and something I usually follow but if I feel I am beating MP1 is folding still the best play here?

[ViperEyeIRL]

Sorry if I did not make this clear, he opens light, I think I am probably beating him, obviously with 88 I am not beating much but I feel I am beating him.

If you have this read, then it's a shove.