QQ, fold or 4bet?

[Caf]

Hand is from the $215 $200k gtd on ipoker.

700/1400/140, 10 handed

Hero(41k) is BB with QQ

UTG(72.5k) opens to 3.9k
UTG+2(33.5k) 3bets to 9334

Folds to hero???

UTG is a very good reg, in the top 5 on ipoker.
No reads on UTG+2, he's only been at the table a few hands.

Not sure if I made the right play so here it is...thoughts?

[Winning!]

3900 is such an uncommonly large sizing from a good reg. What are his stats like? I assume if he's top 5 he must be opening a tonne, and if UTG+2 is good (quick OPR in these spots is always good) then it comes down to how wide he would 3b/call vs what could be a fairly large UTG raising range.. I'd guess UTG+2s range is probably gonna be something like AQs+/TT+ here if that's the case. Without stats and dynamic this could be miles off though.

[DaKlowen]

i think stacks are deep enough to flat the 3bet

[pgodkin]

i think stacks are deep enough to flat the 3bet

what kind of range would he open, this deep in that position that he is going to flat the 3bet after caf does! Also random guy is going to have 1010+, AKs, even if utg opens like 10% of his range we have to fold to his 4bet, which would be a sweet spot to do it as UTG+1 has to worry what we flat the 3 bet oop

Edit on paper i fold in practice i shove pre

[Caf]

3900 is such an uncommonly large sizing from a good reg. What are his stats like? I assume if he's top 5 he must be opening a tonne, and if UTG+2 is good (quick OPR in these spots is always good) then it comes down to how wide he would 3b/call vs what could be a fairly large UTG raising range.. I'd guess UTG+2s range is probably gonna be something like AQs+/TT+ here if that's the case. Without stats and dynamic this could be miles off though.

No stats. And yes his open raises are unusually large for a good reg but that's the way he plays, after this hand he was actually varying his opening size between c.2.5x and c.3.3x. He hasn't been at the table too long either but I have some table time with him, no notes on his UTG range though, just notes that he opens wide in LP and varies his open bets in relation to his own stack size. Also, he was 2 seats to my left, deep in the 9k $5r at the same time and had been playing tight there, although he might have a different game plan for the lower stakes, ie. tight is right.

No clue about how good/bad UTG+2 is. I should have checked Problabs or Sharkscope(OPR doesn't have stats for ipoker afaik) especially since there is a timebank for this tourney on ipoker now. But tbh when I went to check I quickly decided not to as I wasn't sure what help it would be or how it would make my mind up for me. What would you do, or what range would you assign if villain was a winning player or if he was a losing one?

What about the 3bet sizing? Would it make a difference to your decision?

i think stacks are deep enough to flat the 3bet

I have c.29bb and UTG+2 has c.24bb. I really don't like flatting a 3bet here and, on the flop, the pot will be bigger than UTG+2's stack. Are you c/f to a K/A flop and c/c any non A/K flop or what would be your plan? It's a pf decision for me anyway.

[DaKlowen]

Oops, misread the OP, we're not as deep i thought....

if you 4 bet and are called you're never in good shape (imo) so you'd be 4bet bluffing.
i don't like folding what's probably the best hand.

If we flat, UTG will call the 3bet behind most of the time, the price is too good.
He'll shove the top of his range and bluff shove rarely.
If he shoves, we've to fold leaving us with c.22 bbs - still playable!

We have position so if they go to war post flop we can get out of the way.
If they check we have options depending on the board.

meeh it's marginal...

[Daragh999]

i think stacks are deep enough to flat the 3bet

Praying this is a level. Shove pre AINEC, you easily have both their ranges beat. Anyone who is even thinking of folding QQ here 29BB's deep online = sigh.

[ferg]

Praying this is a level. Shove pre AINEC, you easily have both their ranges beat. Anyone who is even thinking of folding QQ here 29BB's deep online = sigh.

in a nutshell

[Caf]

Oops, misread the OP, we're not as deep i thought....

if you 4 bet and are called you're never in good shape (imo) so you'd be 4bet bluffing.
i don't like folding what's probably the best hand.

If we flat, UTG will call the 3bet behind most of the time, the price is too good.
He'll shove the top of his range and bluff shove rarely.
If he shoves, we've to fold leaving us with c.22 bbs - still playable!

We have position so if they go to war post flop we can get out of the way.
If they check we have options depending on the board.

meeh it's marginal...

We do not have position and stacks still aren't playable post flop as I said already. I'm not sure what you think is marginal either since you play the hand completely differently?

Praying this is a level. Shove pre AINEC, you easily have both their ranges beat. Anyone who is even thinking of folding QQ here 29BB's deep online = sigh.

in a nutshell

Wow, this really isn't even a close spot for you? Any chance of expanding on this as it was close for me att and has been annoying me since it happened and figured in hindsight that there was a chance I made the wrong move, hence the thread obv.

It would be a snap shove for me if the position's of the villains were different.

Also, this bit about folding w/29bb=sigh, so the action is irrelevant?

[Daragh999]

Wow, this really isn't even a close spot for you? Any chance of expanding on this as it was close for me att and has been annoying me since it happened and figured in hindsight that there was a chance I made the wrong move, hence the thread obv.

It would be a snap shove for me if the position's of the villains were different.

Also, this bit about folding w/29bb=sigh, so the action is irrelevant?

Im not the best math guy but il try my best.
K lets put UTG on a reasonable range of 22+,A9s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo = 12.5% of preflop hands
UTG+2 will be tighter but lets roughly say 99+,AQs+,AQo+ = 5.1% of preflop hands assuming he is never 3-betting an UTG raiser light (which he could be)
And us with QQ

3 Way Equity
UTG = 22.27%
UTG+2 = 32.85%
US = 44.88%

This dosn't factor in the folds we will get as well picking up 15k uncontested.
The marjority of the time UTG will fold as well so if we work it out as HU between us and UTG+2 and were ahead of his percieved value range 57.9%: 42.1%.

This is far to much equity to give up in an online tournament so im stacking off here. Of course the action isn't irrelevant. If it was 4-bet before me i would consider folding and if we were much deeper it would be a tough spot but 29BB's is not enough to fold AINEC. I said sigh cause its pretty much a case of 'what are you waiting for', you got dealt the 3rd best starting hand possible and you want to muck with a short/medium stack? Its 99% likely that UTG+2 is 3-betting some worse hands than us and that were ahead of his range.

[Caf]

I way over thought this one. Really shouldn't have had a 2nd thought about it but alas I did. It was wrecking my head but ty for the clarification there Daragh, I can stop banging my head off a brink wall now and just go jump off a cliff.

At first I gave a range of 10,10+ and A,Q+ but then thought about it and somehow tightened it to Q,Q+ and A,K and sighed and folded. Such a stupid move, don't know what goes through my head sometimes...meh, it will be an easy decision in future...live to grind another day.


Thanks for the replies.

[Daragh999]

^^^Lol slight overreaction, comfort yourself with the thought that he had AK and you would have lost the flip

[Caf]

Lol, the cliff was closed.

[Laois Hammer]

I shove aswel as it just feels like the right thing to do, run QQ against the 3bettors stack with some fold equity thrown in.

@darragh, i dont think we'll have 57% against his 3bet calling range -v- a cold 4 bet which is what we need to work it out against, i think we can drop AQ from it but still have enough with the dead money.

[Wombatman]

I shove aswel as it just feels like the right thing to do, run QQ against the 3bettors stack with some fold equity thrown in.

@darragh, i dont think we\'ll have 57% against his 3bet calling range -v- a cold 4 bet which is what we need to work it out against, i think we can drop AQ from it but still have enough with the dead money.

Was thinking the same but because it looks like such a nice spot to steal stack wise (bar the fact that they are both ep) you could get a hero call from aq or TT thinking we are at it. This factor can widen the 4 bet calling range.

[AKQJ10]

Who is UTG? Get it in but not that happy about it

[Caf]

Who is UTG? Get it in but not that happy about it

Ranked 3rd on the 2011 leaderboard.

SPOILER

[Winning!]

Ranked 3rd on the 2011 leaderboard.

SPOILER

He puts in sick volume if I remember right. Don't ever remember noting these kind of raise sizes though.. hard for it to be a misclick either. I'm guessing he r/folded so we never saw a showdown?

Keep an eye on his sizing whenever you play his tables again, see what he's up to and and try to find a pattern.

SPOILER

there likely wont be one

[AKQJ10]

Yeh he's a volume sicko. He's not particarly tough to play against though. The main thing that would worry me (even though im not folding) is that utg +2 only has 24bb if he had a weaker id imagine he'd shove, my guess is he has JJ+AK+ maybe 1010 though i think most people shove. Ty for the leaderboard, never knew about it

[Caf]

He puts in sick volume if I remember right. Don't ever remember noting these kind of raise sizes though.. hard for it to be a misclick either. I'm guessing he r/folded so we never saw a showdown?

Keep an eye on his sizing whenever you play his tables again, see what he's up to and and try to find a pattern.

SPOILER

there likely wont be one

Yeah, pretty sure he has 10-11k games played with around $170k profit iirc. While in the 9k, at the same time, his raises were big too and avg stack was a good bit less.

Yeah, that's how the hand played out.

The only thing I noted was that his bet sizing seemed to be in relation to his own stack size. I remember being at a table with him before and he had a big stack and was opening 3x and over, then with an avg stack he was opening around 2.5x and min opening when he got short. In saying that his opening sizes in the above game were changing every hand regardless of stack size or position....hardly due to hand strength but I guess it could be, that would just be ridic bad though.

[Caf]

Yeh he's a volume sicko. He's not particarly tough to play against though. The main thing that would worry me (even though im not folding) is that utg +2 only has 24bb if he had a weaker id imagine he'd shove, my guess is he has JJ+AK+ maybe 1010 though i think most people shove. Ty for the leaderboard, never knew about it

I missed this post yesterday. The bet sizing from that stack was the main thing that made me narrow the range. I figured 1010, JJ and AQ would be shoving there too.

There's leaderboards there on sharkscope for nearly every software btw. After clicking leaderboards, just scroll down to the bottom of the 1st drop down box and you can view scheduled by network.