Another thin value bet

[AndyFatBastard]

This is Day1c of the GUKPT Goliath. I played day 1b in my usual patient style and ended up shortstacked with just below average stack, so I wasn't gonna let that happen again with the fast structure. I've had my gambol on and have spun up the 25k starting stack to 70k in short enough order. I'm pretty much dominating the table and winning every second pot. I've just knocked out a guy who got 15k in with 99 vs my AK and I rivered a straight flush. So my image is very loose aggressive and people are starting to play back at me. In reality I've just been on a bit of a heater, but nobody needs to know that.

Blinds are 200/400, villian is a fairly typical rock female player. She's up to 40k having won a big pot with KK. She makes it 1200 to go in MP. I make it 3200 with AK on the button, everyone folds, she calls.

Flop is QT2

I cbet 4k, she calls.

Turn is 3 I've got the A, two overs and a gutshot so I fire again, 9k. she thinks for a bit and calls.

River is K. She's got about 24k left, pot is ~33k so I go all in.

[Bubbleking]

you're really banking on her having AQ

[Moneymaker]

I just check the river. Given your image she's probably just letting you bomb your tank off. And your hand really isn't that strong on this board. She's gonna have flushes/two pairs/sets quite often, which all call your shove.

[ViperEyeIRL]

We can try to assign her a range:
I guess QQ/TT would raise that flop as it is very drawy and want to stack AA/KK.
AQ may fold pre oop, but some players would flat, so it is certainly in her range.
JJ with Jd is a really likely hand.
QT folds pre basically always.
KJs should always fold pre, but you never know, but KdJd would probably raise flop/get them in. KJo with Kd is a possibility but more likely to be folded pre.
KQ should also be folded pre as it is very dominated and she is oop, but again you never know what they call with....so KQo with Kd is possible. Some players flat a lot of this hands pre "to see a flop" and then go - not saying she falls into this category but she might be.
AJ would always fold the turn (should always fold preflop anyway) even with Jd.

Random suited connectors (diamond) would fold pre as especially oop would not have implied odds to flat (plus is she is a rock probably she would not open raise with 8d9d etc).

I like the river shove tbh even if I don't think we get called much by worse, AQ might call, JJ will fold and KJs would maybe call, but again don't think she would flat pre. I think realistically we are crashed only by KQ, but if she is a rock she probably folded that pre or shoved the river now.
Having Ad in our hands obviously makes a lot of difference as it removed tons of flush combinations. NH.

[Guest]

i think i just check the river here as you now have showdown value against a tight player who is never calling with a worse hand and if she has you beat she is calling 99% of the time.. no value in shoving here imo!

[AndyFatBastard]

@ViperEye just one clarification - We're in position and she's already checked. So it's show down or shove.

For a bit more info, this player has played her big hands big so far. For example in the KK hand she raised 4x pre instead of 3x here, and fired big on the flop. So I think she never has a set, she would always raise it big and look to get em in on the flop.

[ViperEyeIRL]

[QUOTE=AndyFatBastard;393558]@ViperEye just one clarification - We're in position and she's already checked. So it's show down or shove.
QUOTE]

Ops!!! I got confused there for some reason, will correct my post

And I shove too there! NH, imo.

[AndyFatBastard]

For the record, villian thought for a bit, gave me the epic soul read staredown and called with KQ. Afterwards she said she would have folded the turn if she wasn't holding the Kd.

[UlDuffer]

i think i just check the river here as you now have showdown value against a tight player who is never calling with a worse hand and if she has you beat she is calling 99% of the time.. no value in shoving here imo!

Totally agree she's not going to call your shove with worse and will c/c hands like KQ that beat you, if she's tight she's folding AQ to your shove anyway so there's no value in shoving. Too thin on such a wet board vs a nit.