Line check - pretty thin max value shove

[Bubbleking]

(350/700 blinds, 85 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

UTG+1: 9,037 (12.9 bb)
UTG+2: 41,467 (59.2 bb)
MP1: 10,134 (14.5 bb)
Hero (MP2): 23,845 (34.1 bb)
MP3: 9,084 (13 bb)
CO: 26,991 (38.6 bb)
BTN: 12,965 (18.5 bb)
SB: 23,232 (33.2 bb)
BB: 44,583 (63.7 bb)

Preflop: (1815) Hero is MP2 with A 9
3 folds, Hero raises to 1,470, MP3 folds, CO calls 1,470, 3 folds

Flop: (4,755) 6 5 Q (2 players)
Hero bets 2,130, CO calls 2,130

Turn: (9,015) A (2 players)
Hero bets 4,050, CO calls 4,050

River: (17,115) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets 16,110 and is all-in

villain is a good winning player but we dont have much history. No reads apart from that. This is around the bubble of the big $22. thoughts on river shove and line in general?

[sixtwo]

fold pre

[Bubbleking]

fold pre

[AndyFatBastard]

Betting 5k on turn makes your river bet seem a bit less thin. I think your line is good, assuming villian is capable enough and can hero call with worse. I like the flop cbet size at 30BB deep, does the job and risks very little.

[Daragh999]

A good winning player on the bubble of a SS tournament will virtually never call with worse. He would expect you to be playing tight, so your turning your decent hand into a bluff which ain't a great idea. Check/evaulate is a better option IMO.

[Winning!]

Don't like it for reasons stated above. I may c/call turn for deception, bet river if checked back. If we bet we only really get one more street of value from villains range of worse 1P hands, but may induce a double barrel bluff from villains floating range by checking.

C/re-eval river is best as played, fold to a shove. Since we know he's decent villain can never have complete air by the river given his line, and I expect him to check back most of his 1P range so if he bets we really cant beat much and would need decent odds to call.

[CheckRaise]

Thats the bottom of your river shoving range with 34bb at this stage of the tournament.

I cant see you getting called by a worse hand on the river, rest of hand is fine.

[Bubbleking]

hero's line of thinking

there are literally no Ax hands in villains range. Anything he doesnt 3bet he's folding pre. Unless he flats some weird Ax combo an then floats the flop they aren't in his range imo.

The turn is obv a good card for me to barrel and he knows that so he prob should call with all his KQ, QJ maaaaaaybe QT hands that call the flop.

villains range is pretty much defined to one pair hands which I beat and is unlikely to call a river bet. So I decided to shove and let him level himself into hero calling.

i think by checking the river I lose out on lots of value

[Bubbleking]

also Hero's range by the river from the villains perspective should be either nuts or air which may encourage more hero calls

[colquhom]

What in the name of god will he bluff with if we check the river?

Cf or jam.

Seems like a pretty standard jam, he's gonna have Qx most of the time.

[AndyFatBastard]

What in the name of god will he bluff with if we check the river?

Cf or jam.

Seems like a pretty standard jam, he's gonna have Qx most of the time.

Yeah it's hard to see villian valuebetting Qx on the river, so I think there's loads more value in levelling into calling a shove with it. Funnily enough I had a similar spot in the Goliath the other day and have been meaning to post about it, but this thread has just reinforced my believe in the thin river shove.

[colquhom]

Prob check fold actually. Dunno why i even bother to reply to threads, i never bother to think about stuff long enough.

[Bubbleking]

Prob check fold actually.

boo urns thin valooo ftw

[sligoboi]

Thinly veiled brag you survived to 350-700 level imo

[colquhom]

boo urns thin valooo ftw

Well, i've played about 4 tournaments lifetime so feel free to correct me on my ranges here but...

I assume he gets to the river with Q10s, QJs, KQs and AQ and 66 and 55.

I dont really know whether he'll 3bet get in AQ with ~35bbs or whether he'll call, or whether he'll call 66 and 55 pre or the others for that matter but thats my guess at his range.

So he has 9 combos we beat and 15 we lose to so not a value bet.

If he has all combos of KQo too he has 18 we beat and 15 we lose to so he'll have to call all the Qx for us to value bet which is a pretty generous assumption.

So we have to check.

Since he'll never bluff with anything, we have to fold.

If you think thats off, feel free to correct me.

[Bubbleking]

Well, i've played about 4 tournaments lifetime so feel free to correct me on my ranges here but...

I assume he gets to the river with Q10s, QJs, KQs and AQ and 66 and 55.

I dont really know whether he'll 3bet get in AQ with ~35bbs or whether he'll call, or whether he'll call 66 and 55 pre or the others for that matter but thats my guess at his range.

So he has 9 combos we beat and 15 we lose to so not a value bet.

If he has all combos of KQo too he has 18 we beat and 15 we lose to so he'll have to call all the Qx for us to value bet which is a pretty generous assumption.

So we have to check.

Since he'll never bluff with anything, we have to fold.

If you think thats off, feel free to correct me.

Id imagine he's 3betting AQ, not sure about KQ and he probably flats with QJs QTs and 55, 66. If you take all the combos of AQ out of his range which Im nearly sure he 3bets then he wont have to call with so many of his other Qx combos to make the shove profitable

[Moneymaker]

I like it. You get looked up with worse here a decent amount of the time, and it's hard for him to show up with better. KQ/QJ type hands make up a decent part of his range imo. You're repping lots of bluffs too.

Wp imo.

[ViperEyeIRL]

Id imagine he's 3betting AQ,

I think AQ is good to 3bet only if he knows you may 4bet/shove with worse and call it off or if you tend to flat 3bets more than you 4bet or fold to them. Usually agains a player who reacts with 4bet or fold to 3bets I guess it is better to flat AQ as is such a strong hand that you don't want to end up folding to a 4bet, and it is better to 3bet AA/KK/QQ for value and Ax/Kx (random rubbish but with blockers) as bluff.
Vs players than fold little to 3bets, then merging your range by adding hands like AQ is pretty cool, as you raise AQ for value and know to be ahead most of the time vs villain flatting range.

[NewApproach]

Id imagine he's 3betting AQ, not sure about KQ and he probably flats with QJs QTs and 55, 66. If you take all the combos of AQ out of his range which Im nearly sure he 3bets then he wont have to call with so many of his other Qx combos to make the shove profitable

In general I like the shove, but I reckon it's optimistic to think he is flatting pre with the likes of QJs and esp QTs tbh

[Bubbleking]

villain timed down and called with KQo

[AndyFatBastard]

villain timed down and called with KQo

At risks of being results oriented - nice hand and well played, sir.

[TommyGunne]

Think its fine. Check/calling river would be real bad though. We will be bluffing a ton here if we're opening a decent amount.