Bubble situation

[curleywurley]

10 man, $5.50 turbo.

UTG 2500
BTN 5000
SB (hero) 4000
BB 3500

Blinds 300/600

The button has stolen bb big blind the last 4 orbits. The bb is super tight and we all know he's going to fold without a premium holding. BTN is skilled and hero has been playing solid.

UTG folds, button bets 2800.

Hero ATs.

What's your move please?

[Wombatman]

10 man, $5.50 turbo.

UTG 2500
BTN 5000
SB (hero) 4000
BB 3500

Blinds 300/600

The button has stolen bb big blind the last 4 orbits. The bb is super tight and we all know he\\\'s going to fold without a premium holding. BTN is skilled and hero has been playing solid.

UTG folds, button bets 3000.

Hero ATs.

What\\\'s your move please?

Nash says no. But shoving here not a massive error or anything.

[Wesley Harms]

Shove

[Bubbleking]

fold because BTN didnt shove and raise looks suspicious. It is also mathimatically incorrect to call

[A_CitizenErased]

the button has stolen bb big blind the last 4 orbits. The bb is super tight and we all know he's going to fold without a premium holding.

Woops. Didnt see that was a raise of half his stack..very suspicious. Maybe a fold as Tony said.

[doke]

At first glance, it looks to me like your bubble factor is somewhere around 1.6 here, so you're supposed to fold although it's reasonably marginal, so shoving's not a major mistake either. If you think button's raising 70%+ of hands, you have the required equity (just over 60%).

Edit:
If you fold (and the BB does too, the most likely scenario), your equity is just over 25% of the prize pool.
If you shove (and the BB folds) and you win (button obv calls), your equity is just under 40%.
If you shove and lose you obviously have 0% equity.

So if you shove, the equity gained from winning is just under 1.6 times that you lose if you bust. So you need to be about 62% against the range. Factoring in that the BB might wake up with a hand pushes it to a fold I think.

If button was a reg I played with a lot, I'd be more likely to shove so he knows he can't always raise willy nilly in these spots in future games.

[curleywurley]

fold because BTN didnt shove and raise looks suspicious. It is also mathimatically incorrect to call

He's been making these type of bets all the time. It's a tactic that has been advised in the literature that I've been reading (SnG strategy by Colin Moshman) so that it does look suspicious and perhaps gives you a little more FE.

[curleywurley]

At first glance, it looks to me like your bubble factor is somewhere around 1.6 here, so you're supposed to fold although it's reasonably marginal, so shoving's not a major mistake either. If you think button's raising 70%+ of hands, you have the required equity (just over 60%).

Edit:
If you fold (and the BB does too, the most likely scenario), your equity is just over 25% of the prize pool.
If you shove (and the BB folds) and you win (button obv calls), your equity is just under 40%.
If you shove and lose you obviously have 0% equity.

So if you shove, the equity gained from winning is just under 1.6 times that you lose if you bust. So you need to be about 62% against the range. Factoring in that the BB might wake up with a hand pushes it to a fold I think.

If button was a reg I played with a lot, I'd be more likely to shove so he knows he can't always raise willy nilly in these spots in future games.

Great post, thanks.

I was getting frustrated that he was stealing my steal opportunities and i know that there is a cut off point where your hand is too strong to fold in this spot. I took a stand here because I was sure that the hand was close enough in this regard vs a random hand, and if I win I figure I'm a big favorite coupled with my hyper aggressive strategy, especially as this was a passive enough game and the all-ins were not being called.

Did you use sng wizard for those numbers?

What a sick game lol

[doke]

Did you use sng wizard for those numbers?

I used http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx

[Angry-Ball]

simple shove

[islander32]

This is a clear fold.
If button is raising 100% of hands here then we have 62% equity. That's just on the mark re ICM . If the BB wakes up with a hand this pushes our equity down. He'll wake up with a hand he wants to play approx 10% of the time. (depending on how tight he is).

Factor in that the shortest stack is in the BB next and we have a fold.... even if 720 is in opener's range.

[Mellor]

He's been making these type of bets all the time. It's a tactic that has been advised in the literature that I've been reading (SnG strategy by Colin Moshman) so that it does look suspicious and perhaps gives you a little more FE.

If the button anything other than a two year old licking the keyboard, then you have zero fold equity.
A shove is 1200 more to him into 7400, there is nothing he can fold here.

His bet was effectively a shove,

[Flushdraw]

I must be the worst player in the world. I'm shoving here while doing a little dance and feeling really happy about it

[Angry-Ball]

I must be the worst player in the world. I'm shoving here while doing a little dance and feeling really happy about it

thats what i would be doing, can't understand why everyone is so anxious to fold this

[Wombatman]

thats what i would be doing, can't understand why everyone is so anxious to fold this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nS0VVTyPnY

[Laois Hammer]

If the button anything other than a two year old licking the keyboard, then you have zero fold equity.
A shove is 1200 more to him into 7400, there is nothing he can fold here.

His bet was effectively a shove,

He means the guy making it 3k may get a few more folds from the blinds than if he just shoved

[Mellor]

Yeah, that's kinda what he meant on a second glance, not sure what way I was reading it tbh, you vrs him threw me I think

[a-k-47]

snap call and its not even close