ICM Spot

[GaryT]

Opener is a pretty decent reg I think.

I'd imagine he would view me as a very lag reg. I was on his direct left a few tables out when we were both around 100bb deep and I didn't do much folding.

I had the opener at 19/17/8 over around 200 hands. The majority of which from a different tournament. Pretty sure I remember he opens wide from EP also. Can't remember exactly what % but it was wider than I expected and my PT3 won't open now. He had generally played very lag especially since the FT started.

Out of the other people left. There's 1 average reg and the rest are horrendous. The short guys are pretty much all total nits since we got deep.

I highlighted some of the other important stacks.

Can
Payouts
1. 1469.56
2. 1070.69
3. 789.31
4. 593.94
5. 417.32
6. 332.13
7. 253.91
8. 175.83

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.5 Tournament, 8,000/16,000 Blinds 2,000 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button (t24,748)
SB (t832,156)
HERO (t293,678)
UTG (t229,783)
UTG+1 (t417,801)
MP1 (t284,818)
MP2 (t1,697,156)
CO (t127,360)

BB's M: 7.34

Preflop:
3 folds, MP2 bets t32,000, 3 folds, HERO?????



What do we shove? Anybody defend anything?

[Daragh999]

Not flatting anything except maybe QQ+ if I think a 3bet would get to much respect, and re-jamming a wide range, the guy with a stub of a stack isn't worth giving up a great spot to add ~25% to our stack the majority of the time, and payouts are pretty standard top heavy. Range roughly something like A8o+ A2s+ KJo+ K9s+ QJo Q9s+ JTs T9s 98s off the top of my head.

Edit, and all pairs obv.

[Winning!]

I think I'd shove a bit tighter than Daragh.. just to hedge against the times he's actually opening tighter than we expected given two shorties behind and aggro hero in BB. Probably like 15% or so.. Idk

Like we've probably got about 4th place in $$ equity before the hand starts so I figure it's probably a mistake to be jamming 20% into a guy who's opening 20-40%. If we know he's just blanket 40%+ though from MP/LP though we get 75%+ folds so it's gotta be profitable.

[Daragh999]

I think I'd shove a bit tighter than Daragh.. just to hedge against the times he's actually opening tighter than we expected given two shorties behind and aggro hero in BB. Probably like 15% or so.. Idk

Like we've probably got about 4th place in $$ equity before the hand starts so I figure it's probably a mistake to be jamming 20% into a guy who's opening 20-40%. If we know he's just blanket 40%+ though from MP/LP though we get 75%+ folds so it's gotta be profitable.

Very quickly working it out think were closer to 5th place $$$ in equity given we only have ~12% of chips in play, and I really would expect a massive range from the opener, the stub and the 7.5bb stack shouldn't discourage him at all given he can snap them both off while doing virtually no damage to his stack. I can be a monkey in these spots though

[TommyGunne]

I think people make a mistake here by never calling.

[Guest]

Have to say I agree with TG I definitely have a non nutted flatting range here tbh. I understand that the SPR is quite low and we're not going to see more than one street too often but I think if you're flatting nutted hands, you do have to balance. If you only flatted nutted hands cos a 3b looks too strong then the flat will eventually look too strong, just a thought.
Just to say I think the key to jamming here is realising your own image, you said he will view you as lag. Therefore my shoving range would be tighter.

[Winning!]

Very quickly working it out think were closer to 5th place $$$ in equity given we only have ~12% of chips in play, and I really would expect a massive range from the opener, the stub and the 7.5bb stack shouldn't discourage him at all given he can snap them both off while doing virtually no damage to his stack. I can be a monkey in these spots though

Yeah I tend to turn nit lol, you're probably right the stacks behind wont matter too much to his opening range, which will be pretty wide so 20% is gonna show a decent profit. I just tighten up in these spots cos I know I cant work out the ICM implications on the fly but would rather miss a marginally profitable ICM shove than make a badly wrong one. As mentioned by TommyGunne you can flat the bottom few % anyway to balance flatting the nutted end.

Just on the ICM numbers, wont those 12% of chips equate to something like $600 if there's a $5k pool? Maybe I'm adding something up wrong.

[Laois Hammer]

My 1st thoughts on shoving range were 22-QQ ATo A8s KQo KTs QJs JTs and flatting suited connectors, other broadways.

Agree with TG but i dont think balance is really an issue we can be unbalanced here and it would have little or no consequences (Am i wrong here?).

Are you really folding the likes of QTo, J9s, 78s if its not in your shoving range darragh?
It cant be too bad to take a low variance route by flatting with the bottom of our +cEV shoving range when theres 5 horrendous players left.

[Daragh999]

Yeah I tend to turn nit lol, you're probably right the stacks behind wont matter too much to his opening range, which will be pretty wide so 20% is gonna show a decent profit. I just tighten up in these spots cos I know I cant work out the ICM implications on the fly but would rather miss a marginally profitable ICM shove than make a badly wrong one. As mentioned by TommyGunne you can flat the bottom few % anyway to balance flatting the nutted end.

Just on the ICM numbers, wont those 12% of chips equate to something like $600 if there's a $5k pool? Maybe I'm adding something up wrong.

We have 7.5% of chips, 293k of 3.9mill, serves me right for trying to run through it quick so yea don't think ICM is a big factor here at all.

To the rest, most of my potential flatting range is contained in my bluff jamming range, with like 22bbs+ have no problem flatting here, with 17-18bbs its a bit nasty though, would fold QTo, guess flatting J9s and 78s is ok but would prefer jamming them as well over flatting them TBH. I think long term your gonna struggle to show much profit flatting mid strength hands here, you will flop 2nd/3rd pair type hands more than you will strong hands and be in dark tunnel spots alot and just end up committing guessing whether your ahead or not.

Edit: And don't think balancing is hugely important here either.

[GaryT]

Cheers guys. I had ATo and thought it was quite a tough spot.

I think flatting stuff here can be very good. Well it always annoys me when people flat when shallow and I generally play badly in them spots. Pretty sure I just turn into a huge nit and expect people to have KK+ the whole time.