QQ facing 150 bb shove first hand

[JWillo1]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 8.8 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars

No reads, no stats, Villain is playing 2 micro mtts. Whats our play?

Button (t3000)
SB (t3000)
BB (t3000)
Hero (UTG) (t3000)
UTG+1 (t3000)
MP1 (t3000)
MP2 (t3000)
MP3 (t3000)
CO (t3000)

Hero's M: 100.00

Preflop: Hero is UTG with ,
Hero bets t60, 1 fold, MP1 raises to t3000 (All-In), 7 folds

Total pot: t150

All opinions welcome

[Bubbleking]

call and be happy kick cat when KJ gets there

[AlanO92]

Call,I don't think we can fold QQ with no reads. Sick if he has AA or KK but I don't think there's much we can do.

[40something]

An 8.80 MTT, call all day every day.

1st hand of the WPT ME, now THATS 1 FOR THE BBV

[mdoug]

snap call yeah

how low a pair would be a snap call? I'd probably call 9's

[Blackboosh]

I'd fold, you're likely to be in a flip at best and doubling your stack in the 1st hand of tournament doesn't come close to doubling your equity.

The potential for short term gain doesn't justify the risk and if he's doing this stuff like this with a hand you're crushing then there's going to be much better spots to take his chips.

[Flushdraw]

An 8.80 MTT, call all day every day.

Usually this. But every time i've called of late it's AA/KK and sometimes AK. We raised UTG showing strength and he's hoping we have a hand that we don't want to fold. So he has AA/KK and AK which we don't like. Unlikely he has the other QQ. Does he do this with AQ or JJ, i don't think so and they never shove worse so it's got to be a fold really.

1st hand of the WPT ME, now THATS 1 FOR THE BBV

snap call yeah

how low a pair would be a snap call? I'd probably call 9's

We got some 'reading' material along these lines the other day. It's the 2nd time it's landed in my inbox. In this, we see the other guys hand as AK and we still have the decision. Not saying i agree with it, but just sticking it up here because it seems relevant.

SPOILER

When is it a good idea to take a risk in a tournament?

It's the first hand of a tournament and you're the big blind. Everybody folds around to the small blind, who pushes all-in for $10,000. As he does so, he catches his unprotected cards with his sleeve and they flip over, revealing the A? K?. It's $9,950 to call and you look down to see the Q? Q?.

This situation is a controversial one in the poker world. In fact, it has created some of the most heated discussions I've ever witnessed on internet forums. One side of the fence argues that you should call, because you have the best hand and because you need to build up chips to have any chance of winning a tournament. These are the people who play to win - or so they say. The other side of the fence argues that by calling you're taking an unnecessary risk and that you should fold and wait for a better opportunity.

Valued judgement

So who's right? Well, as is often the case in controversial situations, the answer is somewhere in between the two extremes. Essentially, the argument revolves around expected value, or 'EV' for short. The EV of a decision is the amount of money you would win or lose on average if you could somehow make it many times.

The starting point for the argument is in David Sklansky's 2002 book, Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, which extended ideas he had introduced in his seminal Theory of Poker. In that book, Sklansky explains that your primary goal in a tournament is not to go broke, and this means that you should avoid close gambles for large portions of your chips when possible. Let's examine our example and apply Sklansky's theory.

With the queens, you're a 57% favourite over your opponent - that is, if you call, you can expect to win 57% of the pot on average. This works out like this: 0.57 x $20,000 = $11,400.

At the end of the hand on average, you'll have $11,400. If you fold, you have $9,950. The difference in the EV of the two decisions is $1,450 - that is, you win $1,450 more by calling than you do by folding. Clearly, in a cash game or rebuy tournament, you should make this call.

The problem with calling is that 43% of the time, you're out of the tournament. That means you have no further opportunities to make profitable bets and use your skill to make money. If you make just a few such calls, you're a favourite to have been eliminated from the tournament.

The exponents of the 'conservation' theory argue that folding is the correct play, even though it's the least profitable, because you can wait for a bigger edge to push in your chips later in the tournament. In technical terms, the decision with the highest EV may not be the correct decision if its variance is high.

Recently, however, more people have argued in favour of gambling in this situation. Indeed, there are many arguments for calling. The call is the more profitable alternative. On average, it adds nearly 15% to your stack - a significant profit and not to be sniffed at. You're also a favourite to win. Many players argue that a 57-43 shot isn't a 'coin flip', but is actually quite a significant edge.

The prize structure in most tournaments is so top-heavy that you can't afford to give up any edge. If you win the pot, you'll have a significant chip lead on your opponents that will allow you to play more aggressively and take chances to build up chips. Your chip lead will also give you a cushion with which to absorb defeats, whether they be outdraws or not, and plenty of time to wait for big hands if necessary.

However, poker is rarely this simple, and whether you would call or fold with the queens should depend on several other factors. First, what's the structure of the tournament? In a tournament where first place gets a substantially bigger prize than second, the only correct strategy is to gamble. To put it simply, every time you pass up a profitable opportunity, you reduce your chances of winning that prize.

Again, many of the short-handed tournaments we're used to are crapshoots, where the stacks are short and the blinds increase very quickly so that the tournament ends before teatime. In a competition such as this, you may never find a better opportunity to push your chips to the middle and so you should call without much thought.

In a typical single-table online tournament, however, your primary goal isn't to win, but to finish in the money as often as possible. As such, you should be more inclined to pass up marginally profitable, high-variance gambles

[chips1234]

if hes russian im not folding :P, would prob never fold this given that its on stars you will see some fucked up hands mostly imo and the other % of the time he has AA/KK/AK

[mdoug]

Usually this. But every time i've called of late it's AA/KK and sometimes AK. We raised UTG showing strength and he's hoping we have a hand that we don't want to fold. So he has AA/KK and AK which we don't like. Unlikely he has the other QQ. Does he do this with AQ or JJ, i don't think so and they never shove worse so it's got to be a fold really.





We got some 'reading' material along these lines the other day. It's the 2nd time it's landed in my inbox. In this, we see the other guys hand as AK and we still have the decision. Not saying i agree with it, but just sticking it up here because it seems relevant.

Will read that article there just wanted to reply to the will he call with aq/jj thing - yesterday I was playing a $11 tourney on on the first level I open shoved and got called by a full stack who had 3-5 off. It's an utter minefield on stars in early stages and if I see jj+ I am not folding for a buyin of less than $20, personal choice is all

will read that now

[JWillo1]

thanks for the reply lads,
I folded after some deliberation for similar reasons to Flsuh and Boosh,
I think he mostly has AK here and then AA and KK sometimes looking for max value.
The clincher was the fact I really don't need a double up this early . There will be plenty more spots later on to accumulate chips without as much risk.
hmm

[mdoug]

@flush - if it was the wsop, or any live event for that matter there's a high chance I fold. I will sidebet anyone any money that we open up 20 tables first hand of a $8 tourney and over 60% of the hands will be worse than qq/aq

can understand the fold though to be honest, I just like getting a good stack early and with what I conceive the first hand shoving range to be in these tournies I think this is a spot where I call. That is all

[smoothcall]

Jesus have online tournys got that bad where QQ is a fold to an all in in a 8$ tourny?

[JWillo1]

Jesus have online tournys got that bad where QQ is a fold to an all in in a 8$ tourny?

haha no I just suck :/ But they're sneaky bastards I tell ya

[KK82]

A lot of players do shove like that with AA/KK in the first hand of a tourney..
Still don't think I can fold it though in an $8 tournament.

[Lplated]

Think it's also worth turning the situation on it's head here -- in early blind levels where most have around opening stack, a player or two enter the pot before you [whether raise/call or limp/limp] ---- what % of time should you be shoving your 100 -150 bb over the top with, say AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AKs, AKo, AQs ...

[mdoug]

Think it's also worth turning the situation on it's head here -- in early blind levels where most have around opening stack, a player or two enter the pot before you [whether raise/call or limp/limp] ---- what % of time should you be shoving your 100 -150 bb over the top with, say AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AKs, AKo, AQs ...

100%

[Vituperio]

100%

Call 100% in any <20$ buy in or any re-buy tournment

fold in any > 50$ buy-in freeze-out.

[Hatedajacks]

Call 100% in any <20$ buy in or any re-buy tournment

fold in any > 50$ buy-in freeze-out.

That makes no sense imo.

[jazzyfish]

this shouldnt mater weather its a 8 dollar buy in or a 200 buy in simple QUESTION IF SOMEBODY DOES THIS IN A 100 DOOLAR BUY IN AND YOU CHECK AND SEE THAT THERE PLAYING TO MICROS DO YOU STILL CALL ??

[Vituperio]

That makes no sense imo.

I agree that make non sense, so it would always fold MTT QQ against shove first hand..
first level ..but I still in 8.8$ buy in I might missclick and call

[connie147]

U Have the 3rd best hand in Holdem. Its an $8 tournament. Snap call. Great if your ahead and win the pot, unlucky if he has AA or KK (or gets there with AK). Its most often AK in these scenarios anyway.

If you lose the hand, just load up another game. Folding QQ there against some randommer cant be right.