Couple of Spots

[peterswellman]

Hand 1

This is from the 5r Storm on Pokerstars.fr. It's fairly soon after the break. MP3 is a good reg on this site. One of the biggest winners on there. He's fairly good. My plan was to to just check and let his floats bluff the two streets. I probably should have just continued betting though. His river bet to me didn't make a whole lot of sense. If he had a flush, he would surely just value bet it? Even some two pair hands i'm unsure if he crams here. I timebanked along time in this hand before making my decision.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1500/3000 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG (t182884)
Hero (UTG+1) (t207711)
MP1 (t82123)
MP2 (t83900)
MP3 (t222126)
CO (t35650)
Button (t54945)
SB (t32951)
BB (t120333)

Hero's M: 46.16

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, 10
UTG bets t6000, Hero calls t6000, 2 folds, MP3 calls t6000, 3 folds, BB calls t3000

Flop: (t25500) 9, 2, 4 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets t14100, MP3 calls t14100, 2 folds

Turn: (t53700) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t21000, Hero calls t21000

River: (t95700) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t180726, Hero?????

Hand 2
This is from the final table of the same tournament. The 3-bettor shove has being playing absurd at two tables out. I had to tighten up severely as he was just 3-betting me an incredible amount and generally just fucking with stacks that were 20bb that he knew were either gonna shove or fold. He's pretty good though and anytime you can say a villain made your life can only be a compliment. He lost a big pot a few hands ago and his VPIP has dropped to 32/27 with a 25.5% 3-bet. On top of my range here it would be a massive aid to me to bust this guy, I feel comfortable playing the rest of the table but this guy is a pain.

Anyway what's peoples calling ranges here in this spot.
Pay jumps are:
1.€2,224
2.€1,616
3.€1,209
4.€903
5.€636
6.€509

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 125000/250000 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (SB) (t4047057)
BB (t3948676)
UTG (t5937456)
MP (t7298584)
CO (t7926572)
Button (t4581655)

Hero's M: 10.79

Preflop: Hero is SB with XX
UTG bets t500000, 2 folds, Button raises t4556655, Hero ?????

[Guest]

Hand 1

This is from the 5r Storm on Pokerstars.fr. It's fairly soon after the break. MP3 is a good reg on this site. One of the biggest winners on there. He's fairly good. My plan was to to just check and let his floats bluff the two streets. I probably should have just continued betting though. His river bet to me didn't make a whole lot of sense. If he had a flush, he would surely just value bet it? Even some two pair hands i'm unsure if he crams here. I timebanked along time in this hand before making my decision.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1500/3000 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG (t182884)
Hero (UTG+1) (t207711)
MP1 (t82123)
MP2 (t83900)
MP3 (t222126)
CO (t35650)
Button (t54945)
SB (t32951)
BB (t120333)

Hero's M: 46.16

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, 10
UTG bets t6000, Hero calls t6000, 2 folds, MP3 calls t6000, 3 folds, BB calls t3000

Flop: (t25500) 9, 2, 4 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets t14100, MP3 calls t14100, 2 folds

Turn: (t53700) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t21000, Hero calls t21000

River: (t95700) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t180726, Hero?????

Hand 2
This is from the final table of the same tournament. The 3-bettor shove has being playing absurd at two tables out. I had to tighten up severely as he was just 3-betting me an incredible amount and generally just fucking with stacks that were 20bb that he knew were either gonna shove or fold. He's pretty good though and anytime you can say a villain made your life can only be a compliment. He lost a big pot a few hands ago and his VPIP has dropped to 32/27 with a 25.5% 3-bet. On top of my range here it would be a massive aid to me to bust this guy, I feel comfortable playing the rest of the table but this guy is a pain.

Anyway what's peoples calling ranges here in this spot.
Pay jumps are:
1.€2,224
2.€1,616
3.€1,209
4.€903
5.€636
6.€509

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 125000/250000 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (SB) (t4047057)
BB (t3948676)
UTG (t5937456)
MP (t7298584)
CO (t7926572)
Button (t4581655)

Hero's M: 10.79

Preflop: Hero is SB with XX
UTG bets t500000, 2 folds, Button raises t4556655, Hero ?????

1st hand is a defo fold, I think is range can make up alot of FD's with overs and sets, can;t see it being a float to often with a cbet and a caller, maybe hand like KQdd J10dd 99 prob folds 22 more than likely 44, possibly even a hand as big as QQ dnt see many bluffs in his range, hes super deep so I think QQ could be there maybe.

Hand 2 I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor cos your 2nd last in chips, Im calling reasonably tight based on the fact, your still deep enough to pick up value spots later, also OR I'm sure is aware of his tendencies so I'm sure he's tighten up his opening range also, for me 99+ AQo+

[peterswellman]

1st hand is a defo fold, I think is range can make up alot of FD's with overs and sets, can;t see it being a float to often with a cbet and a caller, maybe hand like KQdd J10dd 99 prob folds 22 more than likely 44, possibly even a hand as big as QQ dnt see many bluffs in his range, hes super deep so I think QQ could be there maybe.

Hand 2 I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor cos your 2nd last in chips, Im calling reasonably tight based on the fact, your still deep enough to pick up value spots later, also OR I'm sure is aware of his tendencies so I'm sure he's tighten up his opening range also, for me 99+ AQo+

No c-bet in hand one buddy. I just called open and bet the flop after there was no c-bet. I guess probably my image could be something to go on. I'd be perceived as laggy but not insane. I'd probably be perceived as a solid winning reg capable of folding. This is villain in Hand 1 http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-St.../kasher%20soze

Cheers on hand 2.

[Guest]

No c-bet in hand one buddy. I just called open and bet the flop after there was no c-bet. I guess probably my image could be something to go on. I'd be perceived as laggy but not insane. I'd probably be perceived as a solid winning reg capable of folding.

Cheers on hand 2.

sorry my bad, prob doesn't change it too much so considering there are two players to act behind him, obviously OR has pretty much given up, still gotta worry about the sb.

Yeah but I've had the same discussion with people before and even from hands I posted and in most cases(dnt wanna throw out some random guess at the % of the time) but the overbet at this level, is so rarely a bluff!!

I'd fold and find a better spot

[Mellor]

Hand 1

I'd rather lead the turn than check call, I think it helps avoid the tricky river check/bet spot.
My first thoughts were that his river sizing looks kinda like a bet out of frustration, possibly that his turn bluff was called. But when I read the player description I started to second guess myself. Think that's exactly how it was supposed to look.

I probably time down and fold.

Hand 2 I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor cos your 2nd last in chips,

I don't see how being second last in chips impacts ICM?


I'd need a pretty tight range here. UTG isn't guaranteed to be strong, and button could easily be squeezing, so a +cEV range is probably relatively wide. But the times it does go in three ways, the fact that we are the lowest stack of the three means that our $EV is severely affected.

[minor]

I think he turned his hand into a bluff on the river in hand one.

Id call. Tough spot though for so many chips.

[Guest]

Hand 1

I'd rather lead the turn than check call, I think it helps avoid the tricky river check/bet spot.
My first thoughts were that his river sizing looks kinda like a bet out of frustration, possibly that his turn bluff was called. But when I read the player description I started to second guess myself. Think that's exactly how it was supposed to look.

I probably time down and fold.


I don't see how being second last in chips impacts ICM?


I'd need a pretty tight range here. UTG isn't guaranteed to be strong, and button could easily be squeezing, so a +cEV range is probably relatively wide. But the times it does go in three ways, the fact that we are the lowest stack of the three means that our $EV is severely affected.

I think its alot less relevant here because of the table dynamics we have here, the decision here shouldn't be impacted by ICM, I calculated (roughly) we have 830e in equity about 12% and if we busT we lose 300e however, if we win we have about 26% equity so about 1.8k so I think given the villains tendencies, ICM shouldn't be a factor

I'm not saying go crazy and call really wide but I think maybe 88 or 99+ and AQo+ is perfectly standard!

[Hectorjelly]

I think its alot less relevant here because of the table dynamics we have here, the decision here shouldn't be impacted by ICM, I calculated (roughly) we have 830e in equity about 12% and if we busT we lose 300e however, if we win we have about 26% equity so about 1.8k so I think given the villains tendencies, ICM shouldn't be a factor

I'm not saying go crazy and call really wide but I think maybe 88 or 99+ and AQo+ is perfectly standard!

I don't understand why you are saying ICM doesn't come into play here, there are 6 people at the table, the fact that one of them is a good player is neither here nor there.

[Guest]

I don't understand why you are saying ICM doesn't come into play here, there are 6 people at the table, the fact that one of them is a good player is neither here nor there.

I had no doubts you were going to get involved sooner or later, lucky me!!

Well I wanted to just double check I wasn't being an idiot here on this, so ran this by 1 of my coaches who's a big winner in SNG's so figured his knowledge of ICM would dwarf our knowledge(fair assumption I think).

Also I said "I think its alot less relevant here" and "I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor", I never said disregard, only it becomes less of a factor.

He agreed 99 and AQ+ are perfectly fine, maybe 1010 and AK if circumstances suggested it, but hey if you wanna base it on ICM you ca wait for QQ+ I guess totally up to you!!!

[Mellor]

I think its alot less relevant here because of the table dynamics we have here, the decision here shouldn't be impacted by ICM, I calculated (roughly) we have 830e in equity about 12% and if we busT we lose 300e however, if we win we have about 26% equity so about 1.8k so I think given the villains tendencies, ICM shouldn't be a factor

I'm not saying go crazy and call really wide but I think maybe 88 or 99+ and AQo+ is perfectly standard!

Table dynamics, our position, villains tendencies... none of fact changes the application of ICM. Can you explain why you think it does?


Our current equity is $1050

Well I wanted to just double check I wasn't being an idiot here on this, so ran this by 1 of my coaches who's a big winner in SNG's so figured his knowledge of ICM would dwarf our knowledge(fair assumption I think).

Also I said "I think its alot less relevant here" and "I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor", I never said disregard, only it becomes less of a factor.

He agreed 99 and AQ+ are perfectly fine, maybe 1010 and AK if circumstances suggested it, but hey if you wanna base it on ICM you ca wait for QQ+ I guess totally up to you!!!

I don't see where he said anything about ICM that agrees with your previous posts. in fact, it looks like he considered ICM as a chip equity would advocate a wider range.

[Guest]

Table dynamics, our position, villains tendencies... none of fact changes the application of ICM. Can you explain why you think it does?


Our current equity is $1050



I don't see where he said anything about ICM that agrees with your previous posts. in fact, it looks like he considered ICM as a chip equity would advocate a wider range.

We're 5 of 6 so of course ICM becomes less of a factor, you hardly think the spot is the same if the villain who shoves is 1st in chips and we are 2nd??

We shouldn't pass up large +ev situations to try and ladder/fine better spots here imo, his point was basically that although ICM should be always considered, it does not play a big factor here.
Folding 99+ and AQo+ is really poor unless the villain or OP are much tighter than they are in this instance

I never once said ICM is affected directly by any of those factors but our decision is and our decision should be more based on additional info opposed to ICM in this scenario

[Mellor]

Doing the numbers,

Our current equity is $1050
Calling and Winning 3 ways, our equity grows to $1630/1635 ($5 is the decided by the side pot, its insignificant when we win)
Calling winning heads is, equity is $1430
Losing we go out with $509, (no matter which way we lose we always bust 6th, the side pot is not hugely significant)


So we stand to lose $540 and we win either $380 or $580.
We need 60% equity heads up, and 50% 3 ways to be profitable, in isolation.
It's a matter of ranges after that, but we'll need to be pretty strong heads up to off set the equity we lose 3 ways.

[Mellor]

We're 5 of 6 so of course ICM becomes less of a factor,

So you said. I asked why, and you haven't explain yet.
So again, why, do you think, that being 5/6 changes the significance of ICM.

you hardly think the spot is the same if the villain who shoves is 1st in chips and we are 2nd??

Of course its not the same spot. The stacks are different, so the equity is different. That means the ICM changes, being different doesn't mean it matters less.

We shouldn't pass up large +ev situations to try and ladder/fine better spots here imo, his point was basically that although ICM should be always considered, it does not play a big factor here.
Folding 99+ and AQo+ is really poor unless the villain or OP are much tighter than they are in this instance

ICM will never suggest passing up a +ev spot. The whole concept of ICM is about finding +$ev situations. It has nothing to so with finding "better spots".

I'm not having a go at you, or trying to put you down, but I think the issue is a misconception about the application of ICM.

I never once said ICM is affected directly by any of those factors but our decision is and our decision should be more based on additional info opposed to ICM in this scenario

Are you sure?

I think its alot less relevant here because of the table dynamics we have here, the decision here shouldn't be impacted by ICM,

[Hectorjelly]

I had no doubts you were going to get involved sooner or later, lucky me!!

Well I wanted to just double check I wasn't being an idiot here on this, so ran this by 1 of my coaches who's a big winner in SNG's so figured his knowledge of ICM would dwarf our knowledge(fair assumption I think).

Also I said "I think its alot less relevant here" and "I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor", I never said disregard, only it becomes less of a factor.

He agreed 99 and AQ+ are perfectly fine, maybe 1010 and AK if circumstances suggested it, but hey if you wanna base it on ICM you ca wait for QQ+ I guess totally up to you!!!

It isn't a fair assumption. In fact its a very common logical fallacy...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_authority

I never once said ICM is affected directly by any of those factors but our decision is and our decision should be more based on additional info opposed to ICM in this scenario

No, ICM takes your chip count into effect. You don't need to disregard it if you are last or second last in chips.

[smoothcall]

I had no doubts you were going to get involved sooner or later, lucky me!!

Well I wanted to just double check I wasn't being an idiot here on this, so ran this by 1 of my coaches who's a big winner in SNG's so figured his knowledge of ICM would dwarf our knowledge(fair assumption I think).

Also I said "I think its alot less relevant here" and "I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor", I never said disregard, only it becomes less of a factor.

He agreed 99 and AQ+ are perfectly fine, maybe 1010 and AK if circumstances suggested it, but hey if you wanna base it on ICM you ca wait for QQ+ I guess totally up to you!!!

lol

[Guest]

So you said. I asked why, and you haven't explain yet.
So again, why, do you think, that being 5/6 changes the significance of ICM.


Of course its not the same spot. The stacks are different, so the equity is different. That means the ICM changes, being different doesn't mean it matters less.

ICM will never suggest passing up a +ev spot. The whole concept of ICM is about finding +$ev situations. It has nothing to so with finding "better spots".

I'm not having a go at you, or trying to put you down, but I think the issue is a misconception about the application of ICM.


Are you sure?

I think that being 5/6 changes the relevance of ICM because you're not likely to find a spot, which can increase your stack so significantly, when you are crushing a players range here so often. I think any decent tournament player will tell you that in this scenario that 99+ AQ+ is a call and that ICM is less of a factor, when making the decision.

You can argue the theoretical merits of folding, but from a practical point of view, very few players find a fold with the calling range I suggested.

Just to say I think you may have calculated the equity wrong, I calculated 11.99% of chips making it 831$

When I said disregard ICM, I simply meant less relevant, hope that clears it up.

Just to say HJ, I didn't realise you were an expert in ICM because I know he is, so I felt it was a fair assumption.

I know what ICM is thanks and I was just making the point that it becomes more relevant in a players thinking, when they possess a higher percentage of the chips in play that's all!!

[Hectorjelly]

Every post you make is littered with logical errors.

If you have 100% of the chips in play do you think ICM is important? That's silly, so how about 99%?


Can you spell out exactly what factors you believe mean that you should ignore ICM in this instance.

[Guest]

Every post you make is littered with logical errors.

If you have 100% of the chips in play do you think ICM is important? That's silly, so how about 99%?


Can you spell out exactly what factors you believe mean that you should ignore ICM in this instance.

You seem to have a personal vendetta against me no.matter what I say or.do to be honest, I think you enjoy trying to make me come across as stupid by focusing on flaws in my argument, I do have my own opinions on it, which are feel are relevant. ICM I agree shouldn't be ignored, I.just feel it's less relevant to the decision making process here, if we possess a hand which.makes up 99+ and AQo+ because it is so far ahead of our opponents shoving range given the stats provided.

I think that it's a +ev call in this particular scenario and making the decision based upon icm implications may mean it's -ev but given the additional and imo more influential factors it's a call.

You kind of make me feel a little uncomfortable posting on hands and I cant make any recommendations without you kind of trolling me and dissecting my posts while not exactly doing it to others!

[Mellor]

I think that being 5/6 changes the relevance of ICM because you're not likely to find a spot, which can increase your stack so significantly, when you are crushing a players range here so often. I think any decent tournament player will tell you that in this scenario that 99+ AQ+ is a call and that ICM is less of a factor, when making the decision.

Finding a spot has nothing to do with ICM.
Whether is 99+ AQ+ is a call is irrelevant. I never once commented on the range you suggested. I commented on your dismissal of ICM.
I highly doubt that any decent player would tell you to disregard ICM.

If I do up my range, and it was similar to 99+ AQ+, I still could disagree with your logic.

You can argue the theoretical merits of folding, but from a practical point of view, very few players find a fold with the calling range I suggested.

Where did I mention folding?
I said ICM is significant, that's all.

Just to say I think you may have calculated the equity wrong, I calculated 11.99% of chips making it 831$

Your chip count is right, but that's not how you calculated equity. Not even close.
We could have 50% of the chips, but our equity isn't 50% of the pool. It can't be more than 1st place, nor can it be less than 6th place.

So like i said, I don't think you understand what ICM is.

Just to say HJ, I didn't realise you were an expert in ICM because I know he is, so I felt it was a fair assumption.

I know what ICM is thanks and I was just making the point that it becomes more relevant in a players thinking, when they possess a higher percentage of the chips in play that's all!!

Look Brady, I'm really not having a go at you. It's hard to convey tone in text.
But you clearly don't understand what ICM is. The way you calculated equity above shows that. If thats how this ICM expert explained equity to you, then he's useless.

ICM doesn't become more or less relevant at small and large stacks. It's a dynamic variable that allows use to take smaller or greater risks depending on how it affects our equity.
With higher percentage of chips we can take bigger risks. Not because ICM is less relevant but because ICM tells us to.

[Mellor]

I do have my own opinions on it, which are feel are relevant. ICM I agree shouldn't be ignored, I.just feel it's less relevant to the decision making process here, if we possess a hand which.makes up 99+ and AQo+ because it is so far ahead of our opponents shoving range given the stats provided.

I think that it's a +ev call in this particular scenario and making the decision based upon icm implications may mean it's -ev but given the additional and imo more influential factors it's a call.

I'll simplify the hand to explain how it applies.

Lets, ignore other players and its just the button and us.
He shove all in. There's 4.9 mill in the pot, and it costs us 3.9 to call. We win more than we risk.
Based on that we need 45% vrs his range to break even in terms of chips.

Our equity is $1050. If we lose it drops to $509 (-540), if we win its up to $1430 (+380). We risk more than win. So we need 60% to breakeven.

ICM deals with money not chips. It's all we should be concerned with really.
One of the reasons I disagree with you regarding ICM being less relevant, is because this hand is a perfect example of how ICM affects our range. A requirement of 45% jumping to 60% is v.significant.

[Guest]

As I suggested before I'm no expert in the subject whatsoever but I do have a knowledge and understanding of its basic principles and it's merits, I believe the guy I spoke with assumed I had a greater understanding than I did, I'd be quite confident his ability to use ICM is excellent.
Dont believe you would have close to his winnings at sngs if you didnt.

To be honest I didnt really want to get into a technical debate on the relevance of ICM, I just thought a call was profitable after running the ranges somewhere around 65-68% vs an opponent with 22-TT KJo KTs+, QJs A8o+ A7s+.

As I said, I'd prefer not to be posting on hands anymore, so I'll leave it at that.

[Flushdraw]

These last few HH threads remind me of the old days between HJ and ROONEY_DIVES

[Arazi]

This stuff just gets so tidious, strategy section of this place is gone to Fk.
As for ICM, it takes no account of percieved "edge" & other such factors (an example of one being - Doke just posted on FB tht he's shipped an IO package, well during the final stages of that satellite our hero would have had to take into account the length of time until the main event, his progressing years and regressing levels of fitness - what does ICM say about that?).
Strategy section would be a lesser place without posters like Brady IMO

[Strewelpeter]

You kind of make me feel a little uncomfortable posting on hands and I cant make any recommendations without you kind of trolling me and dissecting my posts while not exactly doing it to others!

This stuff just gets so tidious, strategy section of this place is gone to Fk.
As for ICM, it takes no account of percieved "edge" & other such factors (an example of one being - Doke just posted on FB tht he's shipped an IO package, well during the final stages of that satellite our hero would have had to take into account the length of time until the main event, his progressing years and regressing levels of fitness - what does ICM say about that?).
Strategy section would be a lesser place without posters like Brady IMO

I agree with you to a point about here, but Dave does tend to see some criticisms as being a personal attack and instead of considering the argument and trying to draw out the point to better understand it he digs himself into an entrenched position that he'll defend to the death.
ICM is just numbers and maybe there is a good discussion to be had about how to weight what it tells you to account for other factors like the threat of impending old age and infirmity

We need more strong voices and maybe ones with slightly thicker skins too.

[Flushdraw]

<<<<< ICM Fish

ICM is still something that i know very little about so i never take it into account when playing. The way i look at it (rightly or wrongly) is that i'm playing about 100 MTTs a week ranging from $10 to $50 as standard and some bigger ones on occasion, so making an ICM decision in isolation on a $10 table when i'm still involved in another 10 games isn't worth it. I just try to go as deep as possible in as many games as possible and check my green line at the end of the day. If down to 1 or 2 games, or if it's a decent FT with $4-5k up top then i'll worry about it, but i'd say more than half the time i don't even check the payouts until i see what pops up when i bust/win.

[Guest]

Hand 2 I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor cos your 2nd last in chips, Im calling reasonably tight based on the fact, your still deep enough to pick up value spots later, also OR I'm sure is aware of his tendencies so I'm sure he's tighten up his opening range also, for me 99+ AQo+

Ok thats the post the caused the original argument, I agree it's not 100% accurate in theory about being 2nd last in chips etc but in real time the ICM will less than likely play a factor.

My only problem with being wrong is the fact that the argument stemmed from a needless criticism of my understanding of ICM, the fact remains that if asked honestly HJ and Mellor both call with the ranges I suggest so whats the need to try so hard to criticize me.so intensely?

BTW I totally agree Strewelpeter, I dont know when to quit

[GaryT]

Hand 1

This is from the 5r Storm on Pokerstars.fr. It's fairly soon after the break. MP3 is a good reg on this site. One of the biggest winners on there. He's fairly good. My plan was to to just check and let his floats bluff the two streets. I probably should have just continued betting though. His river bet to me didn't make a whole lot of sense. If he had a flush, he would surely just value bet it? Even some two pair hands i'm unsure if he crams here. I timebanked along time in this hand before making my decision.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1500/3000 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

UTG (t182884)
Hero (UTG+1) (t207711)
MP1 (t82123)
MP2 (t83900)
MP3 (t222126)
CO (t35650)
Button (t54945)
SB (t32951)
BB (t120333)

Hero's M: 46.16

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, 10
UTG bets t6000, Hero calls t6000, 2 folds, MP3 calls t6000, 3 folds, BB calls t3000

Flop: (t25500) 9, 2, 4 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets t14100, MP3 calls t14100, 2 folds

Turn: (t53700) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t21000, Hero calls t21000

River: (t95700) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t180726, Hero?????

Hand 2
This is from the final table of the same tournament. The 3-bettor shove has being playing absurd at two tables out. I had to tighten up severely as he was just 3-betting me an incredible amount and generally just fucking with stacks that were 20bb that he knew were either gonna shove or fold. He's pretty good though and anytime you can say a villain made your life can only be a compliment. He lost a big pot a few hands ago and his VPIP has dropped to 32/27 with a 25.5% 3-bet. On top of my range here it would be a massive aid to me to bust this guy, I feel comfortable playing the rest of the table but this guy is a pain.

Anyway what's peoples calling ranges here in this spot.
Pay jumps are:
1.€2,224
2.€1,616
3.€1,209
4.€903
5.€636
6.€509

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 125000/250000 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (SB) (t4047057)
BB (t3948676)
UTG (t5937456)
MP (t7298584)
CO (t7926572)
Button (t4581655)

Hero's M: 10.79

Preflop: Hero is SB with XX
UTG bets t500000, 2 folds, Button raises t4556655, Hero ?????

Hand 1 is quite interesting I think. I would prefer to bet turn. As I don't think he has many pure floats. Like he isn't going to click call on the flop with KTcc or some random overs/backdoors with somebody to act behind him.

His sizing makes absolutely no sense to me at all. I just can't think of a single value hand that he sizes like this except for something that he wants to bluff over 2 streets without playing for stacks.

I don't know why he would bet so small turn to jam for almost 2x pot on the river. It would make a lot more sense to go 2/3 pot turn and have a much more natural river jam.

He has very few combos of flushes here if we presume he doesn't float backdoors on the flop. So 89hh,79hh,J9hh and A9hh.

Your range that gets to the river like this is pretty narrow and mainly medium strength 1 pair hands that are just bluff catchers.

He's obviously good enough to notice this looking at his results. I could be wrong as he's obviously a big winner but this hand looks a bit like he was just clicking buttons without much thought. Then got to the river realised your range is pretty face up so tried to make you fold everything. I'd call.


Hand 2 99+,AQ looks around right without running any numbers. Possibly folding 99 & AQ
if UTG is a bit nitty.

[peterswellman]

Hand 1 is quite interesting I think. I would prefer to bet turn. As I don't think he has many pure floats. Like he isn't going to click call on the flop with KTcc or some random overs/backdoors with somebody to act behind him.

His sizing makes absolutely no sense to me at all. I just can't think of a single value hand that he sizes like this except for something that he wants to bluff over 2 streets without playing for stacks.

I don't know why he would bet so small turn to jam for almost 2x pot on the river. It would make a lot more sense to go 2/3 pot turn and have a much more natural river jam.

He has very few combos of flushes here if we presume he doesn't float backdoors on the flop. So 89hh,79hh,J9hh and A9hh.

Your range that gets to the river like this is pretty narrow and mainly medium strength 1 pair hands that are just bluff catchers.

He's obviously good enough to notice this looking at his results. I could be wrong as he's obviously a big winner but this hand looks a bit like he was just clicking buttons without much thought. Then got to the river realised your range is pretty face up so tried to make you fold everything. I'd call.


Hand 2 99+,AQ looks around right without running any numbers. Possibly folding 99 & AQ
if UTG is a bit nitty.

Cheers was hoping for a bit more discussion on hand 1 and just a few quick ranges on hand 2 but I got the opposite.

This was my thinking after the hand. My hand is face-up as possible and at the time, I just couldn't click call because he was good. With me not betting the turn here, i allow him to really fuck we me on the river because my range here is always like 77, 88, 10's and JJ. He's good he can see this so it's a great spot for him to bluff shove. He didn't tank long on the river before shoving either. Something I personally think he would do with sets and flushes.

[Flushdraw]

If it's not a random float, then KQdd could be a value hand that he plays this way and shoves the river for value. Possibly J10dd that he decides to bet the turn with rather than take a free card. It's close but not sure i could find the call in the heat of the moment either.

[Mellor]

ICM is still something that i know very little about so i never take it into account when playing. The way i look at it (rightly or wrongly) is that i'm playing about 100 MTTs a week ranging from $10 to $50 as standard and some bigger ones on occasion, so making an ICM decision in isolation on a $10 table when i'm still involved in another 10 games isn't worth it.

You might never actively say "this is a call/fold becayse ICM says so", but I'm sure you make decisions during MTT late stages where survival, climbing the ladder is a factor - it's the exact same concept. Like the way satellite play instinctively brings out really tight or loose play.
I never make real time ICM decisions, it's not possible. But the idea is to do enough analysis afterwards to get better at estimating the adjustment. The bubble factor that Doke talked about is the dame idea.

My only problem with being wrong is the fact that the argument stemmed from a needless criticism of my understanding of ICM, the fact remains that if asked honestly HJ and Mellor both call with the ranges I suggest so whats the need to try so hard to criticize me.so intensely?

As I said Brady, I wasn't trying to get at you or put you down. Please don't take it that way. I wasn't highlighting anything to get one over on you, but rather to help you. Being criticised is the best way to improve imo.
Like the equity post for example. You made a simple mistake, if you think about it and see the mistake, it's something to take away from the criticism.

[Hectorjelly]

My only problem with being wrong is the fact that the argument stemmed from a needless criticism of my understanding of ICM, the fact remains that if asked honestly HJ and Mellor both call with the ranges I suggest so whats the need to try so hard to criticize me.so intensely?

Because you keep repeating things that are wrong. From the above post...

Hand 2 I don't think ICM really plays too much of a factor cos your 2nd last in chips

Mellor has already explained above why this is incorrect.

How on earth would you know what ranges I would call with? In fact you are wrong, I would never call with AQ there - it would be a bad call.

[Guest]

Because you keep repeating things that are wrong. From the above post...



Mellor has already explained above why this is incorrect.

How on earth would you know what ranges I would call with? In fact you are wrong, I would never call with AQ there - it would be a bad call.

Tbh I.couldn't give a fuck what ya call with!

I got the ICM stuff wrong so what!
Far better players than you have agreed with me that AQo is a call so I'm happy with my original assessment, so your opinion is void to me just like mine is to you. The fact is, if you're that good at MTTs and your calling ranges and your play was so precise all the time, like you think it is, guess what, you'd be crushing MTTs but your not!

That is not saying I crush them or my.opinion has more.merit than yours but at least I am willing to reconsider an opinion and admit fault, which isn't something that you seem to possess.

[peterswellman]

Tbh I.couldn't give a fuck what ya call with!

I got the ICM stuff wrong so what!
Far better players than you have agreed with me that AQo is a call so I'm happy with my original assessment, so your opinion is void to me just like mine is to you. The fact is, if you're that good at MTTs and your calling ranges and your play was so precise all the time, like you think it is, guess what, you'd be crushing MTTs but your not!

That is not saying I crush them or my.opinion has more.merit than yours but at least I am willing to reconsider an opinion and admit fault, which isn't something that you seem to possess.

Chill out man seriously. Doing yourself no favours here. You seem to get mad over criticism waaaay too easy. I'm guessing your coach is a relaxed type guy because if he was as some of the coaches I've seen you wouldn't last. It's nothing personal man. It's just the way HJ talks about poker.

I'd prefer my thread didnt turn into whos the better player, whos coach is better or whos daddy would beat who.

I'd call with AQo here too because I reckon the guy shoves a10+ but I'm willing to listen to reasons why it would be bad.

[Guest]

Chill out man seriously. Doing yourself no favours here. You seem to get mad over criticism waaaay too easy. I'm guessing your coach is a relaxed type guy because if he was as some of the coaches I've seen you wouldn't last. It's nothing personal man. It's just the way HJ talks about poker.

I'd prefer my thread didnt turn into whos the better player, whos coach is better or whos daddy would beat who.

I'd call with AQo here too because I reckon the guy shoves a10+ but I'm willing to listen to reasons why it would be bad.

It's just the way he talks about poker? He talks about poker like his opinion and abilities are far and above everyone else's. I cant get a little heated but he can? However cos thats the way he talks about poker, he can be dismissive and ignorant, seems fair!!

It's clearly not just me the guy has had run ins with others before so the blame cannot rest solely on me.

Again I'm sorry for derailing

[GaryT]

Cheers was hoping for a bit more discussion on hand 1 and just a few quick ranges on hand 2 but I got the opposite.

This was my thinking after the hand. My hand is face-up as possible and at the time, I just couldn't click call because he was good. With me not betting the turn here, i allow him to really fuck we me on the river because my range here is always like 77, 88, 10's and JJ. He's good he can see this so it's a great spot for him to bluff shove. He didn't tank long on the river before shoving either. Something I personally think he would do with sets and flushes.

Does he really need to shove his bluffs though? i can see why he would overbet but surely making it like 110k or something that just slightly over pot gets the same fold % as a shove and saves chips when called.

You could also say the opposite. If we are relying on him turning pairs into a bluff then would he not need to think a bit before deciding to.

I would rule out sets from his range due to turn sizing then overbetting river when a draw gets there. Just doesn't make sense to size a set that way.

If it's not a random float, then KQdd could be a value hand that he plays this way and shoves the river for value. Possibly J10dd that he decides to bet the turn with rather than take a free card. It's close but not sure i could find the call in the heat of the moment either.

Yeah I never thought of KQdd actually. 1 of the value hands I thought made a lot of sense was JTdd as well. So if his value range is pretty much JTdd,KQdd, A9hh,98hh,79hh,J9hh





Does he turn all his smaller pairs etc into bluffs enough of the time to call?

I'm changing my mind and starting to think a call is probably pretty bad.

I would never call with AQ there - it would be a bad call.

I'm pretty sure it would be a call without ICM considerations. It's a fold when you account for ICM. But still reasonably close.

If you discount UTG we have 56% against BTN if he shoves 14%. Depends on the player but I know that it is not unusual for people to be quite a bit wider than that in this spot. Would need more info on UTG etc to know for sure but it's definitely not a snap fold.